European Regional Convergence Revisited: A Weighted Least Squares Approach

A plethora of past studies have concluded that unconditional β‐convergence is present in a broad sample of regions, implying that poor regions grow faster than rich ones. All these econometric studies tend to overlook the relative importance or size of each region in the national setting, treating all regional observations as equal. However, this assumption might lead to unrealistic or misleading results. Convergence analysis could be more meaningful if it included a weighting mechanism taking into account the size of regions. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether the inclusion of a weighting mechanism in β‐convergence analysis, giving more weight to larger regions and less to smaller ones, can result in sharply different implications for the regional convergence‐divergence process. For this reason, both unweighted ordinary least squares (OLS) and weighted least squares estimators are used in the analysis of regional (intra‐national) convergence within 10 European Union (EU) countries over the period 1990–2000. The comparison between the two methods reveals that when regions are appropriately weighted for their size, intra‐national divergence, rather than convergence found with the OLS approach, seems to be the dominant experience in the EU.     

The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Regional Disparities in Mexico

After a long period of industrialization based on import substitution (ISI), Mexico started to open up its economy by accessing the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in 1986. The export‐promotion strategy was transformed into one of regional integration with the signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994. The paper explores the impact of the opening of the economy on regional disparities in Mexico using σ and β‐convergence analyses. Four different samples have been employed to control for possible data bias linked to the inclusion of oil‐producing and maquiladora‐based states. The results show that whereas the final stages of the ISI period were dominated by convergence trends, trade liberalization (GATT) and economic integration (NAFTA) have led to divergence. In particular, the NAFTA period is related to divergence regardless of the type of analysis chosen and the sample used.     

2013年8月16日抚顺特大暴雨过程分析

利用常规观测、加密自动站气象站以及NCEP/NCAR再分析等资料,分析了2013年8月16日抚顺特大暴雨过程。结果表明,抚顺“8.16”特大暴雨过程是一次极端降水过程,具有雨量大、持续时间长、范围广的特点。降水前15天维持高温高湿,低气压特点 。地面蒙古气旋、低层切变线、500hPa西风槽和副热带高压是强降水的主要影响系统。本次降水过程的水汽由多方向气流汇合。低空急流左前方辐合和高空急流右后方辐散耦合,是强降水产生的动力条件。水汽通量散度在降水前为低层辐合,高层辐散。降水开始后辐合中心向下发展,高层辐散明显增大,低层辐合明显加强,对流发展更加旺盛。本次暴雨产生在850hPa假相当位温场高能舌区顶部,垂直分布具有上干下湿不稳定层结。高层干冷空气向低层渗透,触发低层高温高湿不稳定能量释放。地形对降水作用有：1.迎风坡对西南气流抬升作用,2.喇叭口地形汇聚作用,3.浑河河谷狭管作用,4.山地的阻滞作用,5.喇叭口地形再次辐合,五种地形作用叠加而成。     

Endogenous Processes in European Regional Growth: Convergence and Policy

The traditional empirical approaches to the analysis of economic growth,cross‐section and panel data regressions are substantially uninformative withrespect to the issue of convergence. Whether national or regional economies appear to converge in terms of per capita income or productivity levels (the so‐called β‐convergence) critically depends on the way in which the empirical model is specified. Traditional specifications witness a disproportionate presence of proxies for forces leading towards divergence among the conditioning variables. It is therefore hardly surprising that these analyses find a positive and statistically significant value for the estimate of the speed of convergence. A more constructive use of cross‐section and panel data regressions is in the analysis of the determinants of growth. The present paper therefore builds on recent work on the role of different growth determinants (Cheshire and Carbonaro 1996) and analyses the growth performance of 122 Functional Urban Regions (FURs)over the period 1978–1994. This model explicitly recognizes growth as amultivariate process. In this new formulation it incorporates a spatialized adaptation of Romer's endogenous growth model (Romer 1990), developing the work of Magrini (Magrini 1997). Magrini's model originated from the view that technological knowledge has a very important tacit component that has been neglected in formal theories of endogenous growth. This tacit component, being the non‐written personal heritage of individuals or groups, is naturally concentrated in space. As a result, technological change is profoundly influenced by the interaction between firms and their local environments. The present paper reports the results of the estimation of a fully specified model of regional growth in per capita income. Particular attention is played to the role of research and development (R&D) activities, and to the influence of factors such as Universities that shape the local environments and have important policy implications. These results are then applied to quantifying the scope for policy to influence the growth process. Several simulations are presented deriving alternative growth outcomes across European regions that would have been obtained if those variables over which policy might have control—including the contribution of human capital—had had alternative values reflecting the realistic scope of policy makers' influence. The implications for convergence/divergence in regional per capita income levels are then analyzed using a Markov chain approach (Quah 1993 and 1996; Magrini 1999).     

Regional economic resilience of resource-based cities and influential factors during economic crises in China

Resource-based cities (RBCs) whose economies depend primarily on exploiting and processing natural resources usually have rigid, singular, and low-end industrial structures, which often cripples their ability to cope with external disturbances such as international resource price fluctuations and economic downturns. This paper quantitatively analyzes the economic resilience of RBCs in China in terms of resistance and recoverability during the Asian financial crisis and the global financial crisis. Furthermore, it identifies the main factors affecting resilience. There are four main findings: First, RBCs were quickly and negatively impacted by the Asian financial crisis, which suggests that economic resistance was generally low during this period. In the recovery period, while the rate of recovery was slow at the beginning, economic recoverability improved after 2002. Economic resistance and recoverability were found to have a strong negative correlation. Second, at the beginning of the global financial crisis, the economic resistance of RBCs was generally high. However, after 2012, the number of cities that were severely affected by the economic crisis increased rapidly. Third, economic resistance varied across different types of RBCs. Coal-based and forestry-based cities had lower economic resistance, while oil & gas-based cities were more resistant. RBCs in the Eastern region generally had low economic resistance, while the economic resilience of recessionary cities was also low. Finally, while factors affecting the economic resilience varied across the two economic cycles, we found that economic development, labor conditions and, most of all, the industrial structure had a statistically significant negative effect on economic resilience.     

Of miracles and crises: (re–)interpretations of growth and decline in East and Southeast Asia

In the last two decades of the 20th century Asia stumbled from miracle into crisis. The crisis not only had manifold social consequences but also demands a reconsideration of the multiple explanations offered for Asia’s miracle years. This paper examines these explanations in the light of the crisis and briefly discusses the ways in which scholars of different orientations have adapted and refined their views. In particular the paper looks back on the influential East Asian miracle report of the World Bank, how it was interpreted at the time of publication, and how the report did (or did not) reflect the dominant Washington consensus. The paper then offers a discussion of the post–Washington consensus concluding that the crisis has seen some convergence of the revisionist developmental state and neoliberal positions. However, this convergence should not be seen as a paradigm shift but rather as a reworking of existing positions in the light of debates that predated the economic crisis.     

2011.7山西区域性暴雨天气过程诊断分析

为了进一步研究山西区域性暴雨天气过程的主要成因,利用常规和非常规气象观测与监测资料,对2011年7月1—3日山西区域性暴雨天气,从大尺度环流背景、中低层影响系统、红外卫星云图、不稳定能量及物理量场的空间垂直剖面进行综合分析。结果表明：该次暴雨发生在东高西低副高影响的环流背景下,中低层切变为暴雨主要影响系统,强烈的上升运动、低层辐合高层辐散的流场配置为暴雨提供了有利的动力条件,涡度场与高低空系统的时空分布变化相一致,ki指数≥32℃的高能区、si＜0℃的不稳定区域在降水时段始终与中低层切变系统的位相一致,促进了持续性强降水的产生。     

The Local versus Global Dilemma of the Effects of Structural Funds

This paper extends the analysis by Dall'erba and Le Gallo dealing with the impact of structural funds on the growth process of European regions. Like most of the other 18 contributions assessing the efficiency of structural funds, our article was based on a global model of β‐convergence: one coefficient pertaining to the structural funds variable was estimated for the whole sample. In this paper, we extend this approach by performing local estimations, where one coefficient is estimated for each region, so that the impact of structural funds can be regionally differentiated. As in the previous contribution, the presence of spatial spillover effects is taken into account using spatial econometric techniques, but here we apply a Bayesian locally linear spatial estimation method on a conditional β‐convergence model, which allows global and local β‐convergence to be viewed in a continuous fashion. Our results indicate that structural funds have a weak global impact on the European Union regional growth process, but that their local impacts are very diverse, with a positive influence on the growth of British, Greek, and southern Italian regions.     

山东省11月份大范围回流暴雪特征分析

回流暴雪是山东省秋冬季重要的灾害性天气之一,为加强对这类灾害性天气的分析研究,提升预报能力和水平,笔者利用常规气象观测资料,对2000年以来山东省11月份发生的回流暴雪天气过程进行了环流形势、中尺度特征及热力、动力诊断分析。结果表明,这期间的回流暴雪均存在雨雪相态转换,925 hPa以下的温度对降水相态有明确的指示意义;此类天气的概念模型是500 hPa和700 hPa在河套地区或东部是低槽,低层850 hPa从西南伸向山东的切变线,地面为西北-东南向的高压控制,直接影响系统包括：低槽、切变线和低空急流;大气湿度层深厚,到达对流层中层或更高;探空分析所有过程均存在逆温,这也是回流降雪的重要特征;在低层水汽通量散度场有强辐合,θse的低值区一直伸到中原腹地,在大气中高层出现对流性不稳定;散度场从下向上辐合辐散交替叠置,垂直速度场表现为从低空到对流层顶均是上升运动的特征。     

冀东地区“9.27”雷暴大风的雷达回波特征

为提高唐山地区雷暴大风的预报和监测能力,利用常规气象资料、秦皇岛站多普勒雷达资料和每6 h 1次的NCEP FNL 1°×1°再分析资料,分析了2012年9月27日（简称“9.27”）在冀东出现的大范围雷暴大风天气过程。结果表明：近乎垂直的西来槽和上干下湿的结构是此次天气产生的环境背景,地面冷锋和干线触发了此次天气过程。低层辐合、高层辐散以及充足的水汽条件使系统进一步加强,强大的倾斜上升气流使系统得到维持。雷达回波图上可识别出明显的穹窿结构、阵风锋、前侧入流和后侧出流回波特征和大风区,垂直速度剖面存在明显的辐合区。根据雷达回波特征演变推断,这次雷暴大风主要由强回波高度的快速下降,强冷空气入侵和回波的快速移动产生。     

Pressure-Dependent Analysis of Water Supply Network Damaged by Earthquake Based on Emitter Model

When the water supply network suffered earthquake damages, pipeline leaks and bursts may occur. In the period in post-earthquake emergency rescue and repair, the network is supplying water with additional outflow of damages (leaks and breaks), which result in pressure deficient. According to the frictional head loss along the break pipeline, a model with additional emitter at the endpoint of the disconnect pipeline was proposed to simulate the break, which simplifies the modeling of breaks. The pressure-dependent demand relationship was adopted in the process of pressure-deficient hydraulic simulation to avoid node negative pressure. Meanwhile a backtracking and line search procedure was utilized to control the iteration step of pipeline network nonlinear equations, which ensure the global convergence of the hydraulic simulation. The effectiveness of the proposed method was verified by a case study.     

2012年7月山西省中南部一次强降水过程诊断分析

为了研究山西省中南部的强降水天气形成过程,利用常规观测资料和Micaps系统提供的资料,使用天气学诊断方法,对2012年7月8—10日发生在中南部的强降水的过程进行了分析,研究了发生强降水的影响系统和高低空流型配置,以及产生较强降水的物理机制。结果表明：较强降水发生在700 hPa与850 hPa“人”字型切变线的暖式切变线之间;低层幅合大值中心,对应降水较强;低层水汽幅合,中高层水汽幅散的长时间维持,保证了水汽上升运动的较长时间维持;高能舌走向与700 hPa切变线走向一致,与干线走向一致。     

太行山地形对山西两次锢囚锋暴雪影响的数值试验

为深刻认识太行山地形对降雪的影响,做好降雪天气预报服务,从而适应新型农业种植结构调整,减小降雪天气对农业生产的影响,利用NCEP全球再分析资料和实况探测资料,采用WRF中尺度数值模式,对2009年11月10日和2010年3月14日山西省两次锢囚锋暴雪天气进行数值试验,比较分析了太行山地形变化对降雪量级、强度、落区及空间结构特征的影响。结果表明：（1）对于影响系统偏南的暴雪天气,太行山高度适中更能使降雪接近实况,而对于偏北的暴雪天气,则是抬高地形,影响更明显。（2）锢囚锋降雪的不同阶段,太行山地形变化对低层水汽输送的影响差异较大。（3）适当降低太行山高度,使得暴雪区上空高空辐散、低空辐合的垂直结构更明显,中心强度更强,对暴雪的产生更为有利。（4）对于影响系统偏南的暴雪天气,太行山高度降低使得高层干侵入强度增强,造成触发作用加强。     

鲁西北一次农业致灾暴雨天气成因分析

为了揭示局地暴雨天气的成因,以期为此类农业灾害性天气的预报预警提供指示,笔者利用常规观测资料、加密自动站资料和多普勒雷达回波资料,对鲁西北地区2012年7月4—5日暴雨天气过程的环流背景、物理量场特征和中小尺度系统进行分析。结果表明：此次暴雨的主要影响系统是高空西风槽、切变线和低空急流;聊城地区水汽通量散度所揭示的强水汽辐合时间与垂直运动发展增强时间没有很好的对应,因此此次强降水时间较短;暴雨落区与强上升运动的发展区域在空间上相关性更好;对流层低层辐合线触发了不稳定能量的释放产生暴雨;此次暴雨过程的局地特点可以用中小尺度系统进行解释,而中小尺度系统的跟踪一定程度上依赖于区域站资料的开发应用;多普勒雷达的强雷达回波单体和阵风锋能较好地解释此次局地暴雨过程,多普勒雷达产品的应用有待近一步深化研究。     

沈阳一次强冰雹天气中尺度特征分析

为了研究沈阳地区局地强雹暴的中尺度特征,寻找致雹物理参量特征及雷达临近预警指标,利用辽宁省常规观测资料、新一代多普勒天气雷达资料、LN-LAPS同化系统资料等,从热力、动力条件、雷达回波PPI和反射率因子垂直结构等方面,分析了2017年9月22日上午沈阳一次冰雹过程。结果表明：雹暴发生在东北冷涡背景下,条件不稳定和水汽含量大的湿润环境中,近地面风场辐合,高空反气旋辐散。雷达资料显示,降雹前有回波悬垂特征,同化的雷达资料分析场能揭示冰雹事件较精细的垂直结构,对冰雹中小尺度系统有较强的解释应用能力。     

2013年春季内蒙古中东部地区一次吹雪过程天气学特征研究

为了研究内蒙古暴风雪成因,利用常规观测资料和NCEP2.5×2.5的6h再分析资料,应用Grads绘图软件以及Micaps3.2系统,对2013年出现在内蒙古中东部的一次吹雪天气进行了分析。结果表明：高空槽东南下为本过程提供有利的大尺度环流背景,蒙古气旋和蒙古冷高压为主要影响系统。高空急流在本次过程中起了重要作用。其出口区左前方的辐散抽吸作用,加强了地面蒙古气旋,有利于降雪发生。其入口区左侧的辐合区,形成下沉运动,动量下传以后为地面大风的形成提供条件。散度场和垂直运动场均形成次级环流,其辐合上升支为降雪提供动力抬升条件,而它的下沉支将高空动量下传到地面。西南低空急流的存在,将低纬度的暖湿气流输送到内蒙古中东部,对降雪天气的形成起了重要作用。     

Water Quality Forecasting Method Based on Compensative Fuzzy Neural Network

The forecasting of water quality variation is very important in the process of sewage treatment, which helps the control system work reliably and steadily. In this paper, the compensative fuzzy neural network (CFNN) based on compensative fuzzy logic and neural network and its study arithmetic are introduced. Considering its features as fast speed, steady studying course, global dynamic optimization, CFNN is applied to establish water quality forecasting model. The practical example indicates that the model is not sensitive to initial parameters and has better forecasting precision and faster convergence.     

山西中南部一次暴雪过程诊断分析

为了进一步分析山西中南部暴雪过程的形成原因,笔者利用常规和非常规气象观测与监测资料,针对2014年2月4—6日山西中南部暴雪天气过程,从高空、地面天气形势、中低层流型配置、雷达回波及物理量场的空间垂直剖面进行综合分析。结果显示：该次暴雪过程以500hPa西风槽、南支槽相继影响、地面倒槽前部东南气流的控制为背景。500hPa西风槽,700hPa西南急流与横切,850hPa东南急流为该次暴雪的中尺度有利配置。回波强度在15~30dBz,属连续均匀的稳定性降雪回波。物理量场的相对湿度在200hPa以下为大于80%的湿空气柱、对流层为一致的上升运动、高层辐散与低层辐合构成了有利于强降雪的环境条件。     

What does the character of urban technology reveals about convergence versus divergence of innovation in China?—A technical lens to evaluate regional economic development

Regional technology characters (TCs) are studied in this paper to find whether innovation in Chinese cities leads to technology converging, or technology divergence, in both the intra-city and inter-city scales, with which regional economic development strength may be better explained. Based on a literature review on the subject, a two-dimensional research framework and relevant technical lens are designed to clarify TC in cities composed of parameters on Technology Strength (TS) versus Technology Angle (TA). By applying Principle Component Analysis, a technical lens is made possible based on extracted parameters on three integrated technology dimensions for measuring TSs and TAs over 117 Chinese sample cities with invention patent data covering 21 technology field between 2005/2006 and 2015/2016. Technology convergence versus divergence are examined for 28/24 sample cities beyond average score, and the research findings indicate that technology divergence in Chinese cities can be confirmed at the inter-city level, even partially at the intra-city level. This finding holds for most sample cities with fairly large and modest TSs, while intra-city technology converging is significant, especially for larger sized TS samples, however they also differ on different dimensions. This may imply that urban economic development in China is technical based and differentiated.     

山西省北中部初冬一次暴雪天气诊断分析

为了探讨暴雪天气的成因和机理,为暴雪预报提炼技术指标,利用常规气象观测资料和MICAPS资料,对2015年11月5—7日出现在山西北中部的暴雪天气过程进行了诊断分析。结果表明:(1)暴雪产生在高低纬冷暖气流相互作用的有利背景下,地面倒槽与回流共同作用的形势中,冷空气从高压中分裂南下在东北平原堆积是回流形成的机制;(2)低空、超低空急流的维持和叠置,为暴雪的出现提供了充沛的水汽。水汽通量大值区与低空急流的位置很吻合,水汽通量散度辐合区与暴雪区很吻合,对暴雪落区预报有明显指示意义;(3)回流降雪的开始与辐合上升关系密切,当回流干冷东北风到达山西北部,与低空偏南暖湿急流汇合形成切变线和干线时,降雪开始,此后随着切变线和干线的南下,降雪也逐渐向南扩展。切变线和干线是此次暴雪的抬升触发系统,切变线和干线北侧的东北气流起着冷垫作用,使暖湿气流沿冷垫爬升,促使上升运动加强,促使暴雪产生。