Markov models of land cover dynamics in a southern Great Plains grassland region

Grassland regions of the southern Great Plains are fragmented by agricultural activity and many habitat remnants have experienced encroachment by juniper (Juniperus virginiana L.). Recently, many cropland areas have been converted to monoculture grassland (pastures) and enrolled into the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). Our objectives were to develop spatial and temporal Markov models to characterize land cover dynamics relative to juniper expansion and CRP using aerial photography from 1965, 1981, and 1995. We used landscapes surrounding three Breeding Bird Survey routes with varying levels of juniper encroachment in Oklahoma as study areas. As expected, land cover changes from 1965 to 1995 included increases in juniper woodland, mixed juniper-deciduous woodland, and pastures from CRP activity. Markov models revealed that juniper had a low likelihood of self-replacement in early stages of encroachment. In all areas, relatively little native grassland was lost to juniper encroachment, but other native habitat types such as deciduous woodland were heavily impacted. Transition probabilities for land cover dynamics varied significantly both spatially and temporally. Projections of these raw transition matrices produced widely varying models of future land cover conditions. By modifying the matrices to account for recent and potential socio-political and ecological changes occurring in this region, a number of more plausible land cover scenarios were produced than those resulting from simple projections of raw transition matrices.     

Grassland fragmentation and its influence on woody plant cover in the southern Great Plains,USA

Context

Woodland and agricultural expansion are major causes of grassland fragmentation. Fire and rainfall play important roles in maintaining grasslands, however, fire activity has been reduced in fragmented landscapes.

Objectives

Quantify the degree to which basic landscape fragmentation metrics could be used as drivers of woody cover potential.

Methods

Woody plant percent cover was calculated between 2004 and 2008 at?>?2000 sites. At each site, we calculated these fragmentation metrics for grassland cover type (classified by the National Land Cover Database); # patches, landscape proportion, edge density, largest patch index, effective mesh size and patch cohesion index within 3 circular areas (10 km², 360 km² and 3600 km²) surrounding the sampling site. A quantile regression was performed to identify which metrics were useful at predicting the 25th, 50th, 75th or 95th quantile of woody cover distribution.

Results

Grassland proportion and edge density were significant predictors of the woody plant potential (75th and 95th quantile). Woody cover potential was positively associated with edge density suggesting that fragmented areas (i.e., areas with high number of edges) maintained higher woody cover, while grassland proportion was negatively associated with woody plant potential.

Conclusion

We propose that in addition to a lack of fire, fragmented landscapes may facilitate further woodland expansion by reducing natural land and restricting grasslands to smaller, less connected patches, which can maintain higher woody cover. Given current trends in woodland expansion, special attention should be given to areas that are found within a fragmented landscape and climatically prone to woodland expansion.

     

Recent forest cover type transitions and landscape structural changes in northeast Minnesota,USA

Landsat TM satellite data covering an approximate 5-year interval (1990–1995) were used to quantify spatial pattern and transition rates between forest ecological states for a 2.76 million ha region in northeast Minnesota. Changes in forest cover were stratified by Ecological Subsection, management status, and by ownership categories using a 1995 digital ownership layer. Approximately 4.2% of the 1990 mature forested area was converted to early successional types by 1995. Of this 4.2%, private lands accounted for 33%, federal lands 31%, county lands 20% and state lands 16%. Notable conversion percentages by cover type category were spruce-fir (−5.3%), aspen-birch(−4.7%), jack pine (−4.6%) and black spruce(−3.0%). Transition rates were also adjusted to fit ten-year time intervals. Shannon-Weaver Eveness and edge density of cover types increased over the study period as relative contagion and interior forest area decreased. These trends suggest both smaller patches and a more even distribution of cover types. Area of upland conifers, lowland conifers and lowland hardwoods decreased while the area of mature upland hardwoods increased in most patch size classes except the > 500 ha class which showed a substantial decrease in area. The area of early successional types increased in most patch size classes. Non-industrial private forestland had the lowest proportion of interior forest of all ownership categories -decreasing by 13.5% in five years. Smaller average cut-unit size sand uncoordinated forest management is the likely cause since cutting rates between private and public forestland were similar. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Landscape division,splitting index,and effective mesh size: new measures of landscape fragmentation

Anthropogenic fragmentation of landscapes is known as a major reason for the loss of species in industrialized countries. Landscape fragmentation caused by roads, railway lines, extension of settlement areas, etc., further enhances the dispersion of pollutants and acoustic emissions and affects local climatic conditions, water balance, scenery, and land use. In this study, three new measures of fragmentation are introduced: degree of landscape division (D), splitting index (S), and effective mesh size (m). They characterize the anthropogenic penetration of landscapes from a geometric point of view and are calculated from the distribution function of the remaining patch sizes.First, D, S, and m are defined, their mathematical properties are discussed, and their reactions to the six fragmentation phases of perforation, incision, dissection, dissipation, shrinkage, and attrition are analysed. Then they are compared with five other known fragmentation indices with respect to nine suitability criteria such as intuitive interpretation, low sensivity to very small patches, monotonous reaction to different fragmentation phases, and detection of structural differences. Their ability to distinguish spatial patterns is illustrated by means of two series of model patterns. In particular, the effective mesh size (m), representing an intensive and area-proportionately additive measure, proves to be well suited for comparing the fragmentation of regions with differing total size.     

Local and landscape effects on the butterfly community in fragmented Midwest USA prairie habitats

The fragmented landscape of the Midwest USA includes prairie remnants embedded in an agricultural matrix, potentially impermeable to dispersing individuals. We examined butterfly responses to local (environmental variables measured within the prairie fragment itself such as vegetative characteristics) and landscape (environmental variables measured up to 2 km surrounding the fragment, but not the fragment itself) factors at 20 prairie remnants in Iowa. Our objectives were to: 1) document how the composition and configuration of the landscape affects butterfly community within the fragment, 2) determine whether explanatory power is gained by including both landscape and local variables rather than only local variables, and 3) analyze differences in butterfly community composition between linear and block shaped fragments. Results from partial least squares regression suggest there are significant effects of the landscape on butterfly community composition at all spatial extents investigated. The local variable that was most highly correlated with butterfly community response was percentage litter, while percentage of roads was the most important variable at all landscape spatial extents. Ordination diagrams clearly separate linear from block sites based on butterfly community composition. Variance partitioning using partial canonical correspondence analysis indicated that landscape variables at all spatial extents add additional explanatory power beyond local variables with little overlap in percentage of variation explained. Our results suggest that butterflies are making decisions based both on the local and landscape environmental factors, thus land surrounding prairie remnants should be included in management decisions.     

Cumulative effects of roads and logging on landscape structure in the San Juan Mountains,Colorado (USA)

In the southern Rocky Mountains of temperate North America, the effects of Euro-American activities on disturbance regimes and landscape patterns have been less ubiquitous and less straightforward in high-elevation landscapes than in low-elevation landscapes. Despite apparently little change in the natural disturbance regime, there is increasing concern that forest management activities related mainly to timber harvest and to the extensive network of roads constructed to support timber harvest, fire control, and recreation since the late 1800s have altered disturbance regimes and landscape structure. We investigated the magnitude of change in landscape structure resulting from roads and logging since the onset of timber harvest activities in 1950. We found limited evidence for significant impacts in our study area when all lands within the landscape were considered. The relatively minor changes we observed reflected the vast buffering capacity of the large proportion of lands managed for purposes other than timber (e.g., wilderness). Significant changes in landscape structure and fragmentation of mature forest were, however, evident on lands designated as suitable timberlands. Roughly half of the mature coniferous forest was converted to young stands; mean patch size and core area declined by 40% and 25%, respectively, and contrast-weighted edge density increased 2- to 3-fold. Overall, roads had a greater impact on landscape structure than logging in our study area. Indeed, the 3-fold increase in road density between 1950–1993 accounted for most of the changes in landscape configuration associated with mean patch size, edge density, and core area. The extent of area evaluated and the period over which change was evaluated had a large impact on the magnitude of change detected and our conclusions regarding the ecological significance of those changes. Specifically, the cumulative impact on landscape structure was negligible over a 10-year period, but was notable over a 40-year period. In addition, the magnitude of change in landscape structure between 1950–1993 varied as a function of landscape extent. At the scale of the 228000 ha landscape, change in landscape structure was trivial, suggesting that the landscape was capable of fully incorporating the disturbances with minimal impact. However, at intermediate scales of 1000–10000 ha landscapes, change in landscape structure was quite evident, suggesting that there may be an optimal range of scales for detecting changes in landscape structure within the study area.     

Modelling the effects of landscape pattern and grazing regimes on the persistence of plant species with high conservation value in grasslands in south-eastern Sweden

Semi-natural grasslands in Sweden are threatened by land-use change and lack of management with attendant risk to their biodiversity. We present a model to explore the effects of grazing frequency and intensity on plant species persistence, and the relative effects of grassland size and pattern. We used a landscape modelling platform, LAMOS (LAndscape MOdelling Shell), to design a landscape model of vegetation dynamics incorporating the effects of local succession, dispersal and grazing disturbance. Five plant functional groups (PFG), representing various combinations of persistence and dispersal character, light requirements and disturbance responses, were defined to model species dynamics. Based on old cadastral maps three different landscapes were designed representing specific time-layers, i.e., a historical (17th to 18th century), a pre-modern (1940s) and a present-day landscape. Simulations showed that a threshold was crossed when grasslands decreased in area to about 10–30% of the modelled area, and as a consequence the biomass of grassland-specific PFGs was strongly reduced. These competition sensitive groups did not persist in the model even with intense grazing in the present-day landscape, where grasslands occupy 11% of the total area. However, all grassland species would have been able to persist in the historical landscape, where grasslands occupied 59% of the total area, even without grazing. Our results suggest that continuous but low-intensity grazing is more positive for grassland PFGs than discontinuous but highly intensive grazing. This effect was particularly strong when the frequency and/or intensity of grazing dropped below a threshold of 20%. Simulations using three landscape maps designed to explore effects of further fragmentation and habitat loss showed that the spatial pattern of remaining grasslands is important for the persistence of grassland-specific PFG. The model presented here is an advance towards more realistic grazing models to explore the effects of prescribed grazing and landscape fragmentation on the persistence species or plant functional groups.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Modeling scale-dependent landscape pattern,dispersal, and connectivity from the perspective of the organism

Understanding the impacts of habitat fragmentation on dispersal is an important issue in landscape and conservation ecology. Here I examine the effects of fine- to broad-scale patterns in landscape structure on dispersal success of organisms with differing life-history traits. An individual-based model was used to simulate dispersal of amphibian-like species whose movements were driven by land cover and moisture conditions. To systematically control spatial pattern, a landscape model was created by merging simulated land cover maps with synthetic topographic surfaces. Landscapes varied in topographic roughness and spatial contagion in agriculture and urban land cover. Simulations included three different species types that varied in their maximum potential dispersal distances by 1-, 2-, or 4-fold. Two sets of simulations addressed effects of varying aspects of landscape structure on dispersal success. In the first set of simulations, which incorporated variable distances between breeding patches, dispersal success was lowest for all species types when anthropogenic cover was patchily distributed. In the second set, with interpatch distances held constant as landscape composition varied, dispersal success decreased as anthropogenic cover became spatially contagious. Both sets revealed strong main effects of species characteristics, interpatch distances and landscape composition on dispersal success; furthermore, scale-dependent patterns in land cover and moisture gradients had a stronger effect on longer- than shorter-ranging species types. Taken together, these simulations suggest that heuristic conservation strategies could potentially be developed based on important but limited life history information.     

Historical change in coastal sage scrub in southern California,USA in relation to fire frequency and air pollution

Invasions resulting in the transformation of one ecosystem to another are an increasingly widespread phenomenon. While it is clear that these conversions, particularly between grassland and shrubland systems, have severe consequences, it is often less clear which factors are associated with these conversions. We resampled plots from the 1930s (Weislander VTMs) to test whether two widely assumed factors, changes in fire frequency and nitrogen deposition, are associated with the conversion of coastal sage scrublands to exotic grasslands in southern California. Over the 76-year period, coastal sage scrub cover declined by 49%, being replaced predominantly by exotic grassland species. Grassland encroachment was positively correlated with increased fire frequency and, in areas with low fire frequencies, air pollution (percent fossil carbon as indicated by ∂¹⁴C, likely correlated with nitrogen deposition). We conclude that increases in fire frequency and air pollution over the last several decades in southern California may have facilitated the conversion of coastal sage shrubland to exotic grassland systems.     

Building patterns and landscape fragmentation in northern Wisconsin,USA

Housing growth is prevalent in rural areas in the United States and landscape fragmentation is one of its many effects. Since the 1930s, rural sprawl has been increasing in areas rich in recreational amenities. The question is how housing growth has affected landscape fragmentation. We thus tested three hypotheses relating land cover and land ownership to density and spatial pattern of buildings, and examined whether building density or spatial pattern of buildings was a better predictor for landscape fragmentation. Housing locations were mapped from 117 1:24,000-scale USGS topographic maps across northern Wisconsin. Patch-level landscape metrics were calculated on the terrestrial area remaining after applying 50, 100 and 250 m disturbance zones around each building. Our results showed that building density and the spatial pattern of buildings were affected mostly by lake area, public land ownership, and the abundance of coniferous forest, agricultural land, and grassland. A full 40% of the houses were within 100 m of lakeshores. The clustering of buildings within 100 m of lakeshores limited fragmentation farther away. In contrast, agricultural and grassland areas were correlated with higher building density, higher fragmentation, and more dispersed building pattern possible legacies of agricultural settlement patterns. Understanding which factors influence building density and fragmentation is useful for landscape level planning and ecosystem management in northern Wisconsin and areas that share similar social and environmental constraints.     

Effects of site,landscape features,and fire regime on vegetation patterns in presettlement southern Wisconsin

The presettlement tree cover (1831–33) of 3 townships in a southern Wisconsin landscape was analyzed using original survey records. Four forest types were identified: closed forest, open forest, savanna, and prairie. Comparisons of vegetation types and landscape pattern were made between the east and west sides of the Pecatonica River, which bisects the landscape and could have acted as a natural fire barrier. West of the river, presettlement tree species richness and diversity were lower and trees were smaller in diameter and less dense than to the east. The major vegetation types to the west were prairie (42% of landscape) and savanna (40%), both fire-susceptible types. Prairie was more common on gentle slopes than on other landforms. To the east, the landscape was 70% forested (closed plus open forest). Here, prairie was more frequent on steep dry sites. These vegetation differences, including the contrasting landscape placement of prairie, are attributed to distinct site characteristics and to disturbance (fire) regimes, with the west likely having more frequent fires. In terms of the four vegetation types, the east landscape was more homogeneous, being dominated by closed forest (50%). West of the Pecatonica River, the landscape was more heterogeneous because of the high proportion of both prairie and savanna; however, in terms of flammability of vegetation, the west was essentially homogeneous (82% prairie plus savanna).     

Ownership and ecosystem as sources of spatial heterogeneity in a forested landscape,Wisconsin, USA

The interaction between physical environment and land ownership in creating spatial heterogeneity was studied in largely forested landscapes of northern Wisconsin, USA. A stratified random approach was used in which 2500-ha plots representing two ownerships (National Forest and private non-industrial) were located within two regional ecosystems (extremely well-drained outwash sands and moderately well-drained moraines). Sixteen plots were established, four within each combination of ownership and ecosystem, and the land cover on the plots was classified from aerial photographs using a modified form of the Anderson (U.S. Geological Survey) land use and land cover classification system.Upland deciduous forests dominated by northern hardwoods were common on the moraines for both ownerships. On the outwash, the National Forest was dominated by pine plantations, upland deciduous forests, and upland regenerating forests (as defined by <50% canopy coverage). In contrast, a more even distribution among the classes of upland forest existed on private land/outwash. A strong interaction between ecosystem and ownership was evident for most comparisons of landscape structure. On the moraine, the National Forest ownership had a finer grain pattern with more complex patch shapes compared to private land. On the outwash, in contrast, the National Forest had a coarser grain pattern with less complex patch shapes compared to private land. When patch size and shape were compared between ecosystems within an ownership, statistically significant differences in landscape structure existed on public land but not on private land. On public land, different management practices on the moraine and outwash, primarily related to timber harvesting and road building, created very different landscape patterns. Landscape structure on different ecosystems on private land tended to be similar because ownership was fragmented in both ecosystems and because ownership boundaries often corresponded to patch boundaries on private land. A complex relationship exits between ownership, and related differences in land use, and the physical environment that ultimately constrains land use. Studies that do not consider these interactions may misinterpret the importance of either variable in explaining variation in landscape patterns.     

Effects of land ownership and landscape-level factors on rare-species richness in natural areas of southern Ontario,Canada

Surprisingly few studies have considered the extent to which the nature of the ownership of land is associated with differences in biodiversity. We analysed ownership and other landscape-level effects on rare-species richness for both globally- and regionally-rare biota (including birds, herpetofauna, butterflies, mammals, and plants) in 289 designated natural areas (NAs) in southern Ontario, Canada. Information about each NA −including area, number of plant communities, ownership status and details of species diversity were collected from published sources. Length of perimeter of NA, relative isolation, and an estimate of fragmentation were measured using image analysis and GIS techniques. NAs were in general relatively small, with mean area of 158 ha (median 85 ha, range from 0.9 to 1278 ha) for private NAs; public NAs had mean area of 132 ha (median 16 ha, range from 0.1 to 1481 ha). Mean number of plant communities was 4.6 (median 4, range 1- 13) at private NAs and 3.8 (median 3, range 1-16) at public NAs. Our results show that, of several landscape-level factors, area had the greatest effects on rare-species richness and other biotic indices. Effects of area were followed by effects of plant community diversity, however this was itself significantly affected by area and the extent of perimeter of the NA. Both these factors were followed by effects of ownership of the NA and by effects of isolation of the NA (represented by minimum distance to nearest NA and by number of NAs in 10 km radius). Other landscape- level factors did not appear to have overall significant effects. Variation in area accounted for 0.1% to 29% of variation in number of rare species, with lower values for globally-rare, than for regionally-rare taxa. For all biotic groups, public ownership of NAs was associated with significantly greater rare-species richness compared to private ownership, even after other factors such as area were controlled. For all globally-rare biota except butterflies, area of NA had greater effects on rare-species richness than did ownership. Richness of regionally- rare birds was more affected by plant community diversity than by area of NA. Number of recorded plant communities accounted from 2.1% of variation in number of globally-rare plant species to as high as 31% of variation in regionally-rare butterflies. The diversity of plant communities was itself influenced by total site area (accounting for 45% of variation), extent of elongation of the NA, and both external- and interior- edge perimeters. Public NAs had greatest numbers of rare biota and so should be a significant focus for conservation programs. Smaller, privately-owned patches of natural area dominate (by number and area) in this densely populated region and their significance should not be overlooked. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Functional and structural landscape indicators of intensification,resilience and resistance in agroecosystems in southern Argentina based on remotely sensed data

There is increasing interest in developing criteria to evaluate the environmental implications of intensive agricultural land use. This implies discriminating between nature and man-made effects upon structural and functional attributes of agroecosystems. Adequate indicators of these combined effects should be cost efficient yet compatible with the core of ecological theory on biodiversity, spatial organization and ecosystem stability. We developed resistance-resilience metrics of plant growth to evaluate the intensity of agricultural use in a temperate irrigated basin in southern Argentina. The metrics are based on an analysis of the components of a temporal series of vegetation indices computed at a low resolution from available globally remote sensed reflectance imagery. We related the developed metrics to the properties of the soils and plant canopies observed at field scale and high-resolution imagery of the basin. Soil depth, soil erosion status and land fragmentation account for large fractions of the variance of the distribution of functional groups of the plant canopies and are also correlated with smaller scale attributes of land vegetation cover. Resistance-resilience indicators constitute a cost-efficient and adequate approach to evaluate the degree of intensification of land agricultural use.     

Rate and pattern of forest disturbance in the Klamath-Siskiyou ecoregion,USA between 1972 and 1992

We classified NALC (North American Landscape Characterization) imagery to forest-nonforest and examined forest change between 1972 and 1992 in theKlamath-Siskiyou ecoregion (USA) in relation to land ownership and fifth levelwatersheds. We also analyzed changes in forest patterns by land ownership forthree major river basins within the ecoregion (Eel, Klamath, and Rogue) usingFRAGSTATS. Overall, forests covered 66.8% of the ecoregion in 1972 and 62.1% in1992. Approximately 10.5% of the forest area was disturbed overall, translatinginto an annual disturbance rate of 0.53%. Although public lands accounted for aslightly higher total area of forest disturbance, private lands were cut at aslightly higher rate. Forest disturbance within fifth level watersheds averaged13.2%, but reached as high as 93.2%. For the three river basins where spatialpattern of forest disturbance was analyzed, private lands were already morefragmented than public lands in 1972. Over the 20-year time period, forestfragmentation increased on all ownerships. Fragmentation rates on public landswere high for all basins especially the Rogue. Clearcut logging on privatelandswas generally in larger adjacent tracts, whereas cuts on public lands weregenerally smaller and more dispersed. Our results illustrate the importance ofconsidering landscape change history when planning for effective biodiversityconservation in forested ecoregions and when formulating ecologicallysustainable forest management strategies.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Spatial pattern analysis of pre- and post-hurricane forest canopy structure in North Carolina,USA

Existing spatial patterns of a forest are in part a product of its disturbance history. Using laser altimetry and field measures of canopy top height to represent pre- and post-hurricane canopy topography, respectively, we measured changes in spatial patterns of stand structure of a United States southern mixed coniferous-deciduous for est. Autocorrelative and fractal properties were measured in this opportunistic study to quantify changes in canopy architecture along twelve, 190-250 m transects that were subjected to moderate to high levels of wind disturbance. Prior to the hurricane, canopy heights were autocorrelated at scales <40 m with an average fractal dimension of 1.71. After the disturbance, autocorrelation disappeared; the average fractal dimension rose to 1.94. This shift towards spatial randomness illustrates part of the cyclical nature of ecosystem development. It shows how a catastrophic collapse of biomass accumulation corresponds to a decrease in ecosystem organization across a landscape. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Effects of spatial scale and taxonomic group on partitioning of butterfly and bird diversity in the Great Basin,USA

Different taxonomic groups perceive and respond to the environment at different scales. We examined the effects of spatial scale on diversity patterns of butterflies and birds in the central Great Basin of the western USA. We partitioned the landscape into three hierarchical spatial levels: mountain ranges, canyons, and sites within can yons. We evaluated the relative contribution of each level to species richness and quantified changes in species composition at each level. Using additive partitioning, we calculated the contribution of spatial level to overall species diversity. Both canyon and mountain range had significant effects on landscape-level species richness of butterflies and birds. Species composition of butterflies was more similar in space than species composition of birds, but assemblages of both groups that were closer together in space were less similar than assemblages that were further apart. These results likely reflect differences in resource specificity and the distribution of resources for each group. Additive partitioning showed that alpha diversity within canyon segments was the dominant component of overall species richness of butterflies but not of birds. As the size of a sampling unit increased, its contribution to overall species richness of birds increased monotonically, but the relationship between spatial scale and species richness of butterflies was not linear. Our work emphasizes that the most appropriate scales for studying and conserving different taxonomic groups are not the same. The ability of butterflies and birds to serve as surrogate measures of each others diversity appears to be scale-dependent.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.