Infectious disease. The enigma of West Nile.

Fifteen months after the 1999 outbreak of West Nile virus in New York City, which sickened 62 mostly elderly people and killed seven, scientists are still hard pressed to predict how abundant the virus will eventually become or how serious a public health threat it will pose. This summer, the human toll has been relatively mild, with just 18 cases and one death. But the virus has been found in more than 60 bird species and about a dozen mammals; in a little more than a year, it has spread to 11 states along the East Coast and the District of Columbia. And with no natural barriers to stop it, scientists can safely say that it will keep spreading.     

PALEOCLIMATE: An Appealing Snowball Earth That's Still Hard to Swallow

The startling claim that Earth has frozen over from pole to pole for millions of years at a time, a hypothesis widely known as the "snowball Earth" scenario, has intrigued many earth scientists but as yet convinced few. But the theory, which would explain some previously inexplicable observations from the Neoproterozoic era 600 million to 700 million years ago, is gaining adherents. Last year, for example, most researchers agreed that one part of the sweeping hypothesis--the claim that glaciers once flowed into ice-covered tropical seas--is correct, even though this idea had been rebuffed for more than 30 years.     

Randomization and social affairs: the 1970 draft lottery

Randomization has played an important role in social affairs, going back at least to biblical days. The drawing of lots, one of the simplest forms of randomization, has been used publicly in many different contexts. Although the legal use of randomization techniques and lotteries in the United States dates back at least to the mid-19th century, only recently have the federal courts recognized the need for proper randomization to assure fairness, lack of bias, and lack of discrimination. A recent presidential commission has supported the call for all-volunteer armed forces (29), but it appears that the recommendations of this commission are at least several years away from becoming law. In fact, it has been suggested that the present lottery system is retarding any moves toward allvolunteer armed forces by reducing the number of draft-induced volunteers, and thereby necessitating an increase in the number of draftees. So, in the short run, it appears that the draft lottery will be the means by which the United States will man much of itsarmed forces. Since this is the case, it is important that future lotteries achieve equity in selection and that the lack of randomization present in previous lotteries be eliminated. [Indeed, it is interesting to note that several young men have filed suit in federal court, seeking to void the 1970 drawing and to force a new lottery. The basis of these suits is the lack of proper randomization (30).] The 1917 and 1940 Selective Service draft lotteries have served in the past as indications that the commonly held notion of "randomness" is often at variance with the strict statistical meaning. The 1970 draft lottery has not helped to mitigate the doubts of many regarding the equity and fairness of random drawings, although the recent 1971 draft lottery sets a very positive example, which, it is hoped, will counteract the effects of the earlier lotteries. Since randomization does have a role in the everyday workings of society, it is important that the public be educated to accept the proper use of randomization, while rejecting attempts to use chance as a disguise for inequity, bias, and unlawful discrimination. As one step toward this end, future draft lotteries should adhere to a reasonable definition of randomness, and the public should be well informed of the precautions taken to preclude arbitrary features that have marred previous draft lotteries. In addition, it is clearly desirable that the Selective Service provide the public with an official statement giving all relevant details on the design and execution of the lotteries. The most recent draft lottery serves as an admirable model in this regard. Note added in proof: Professor Hans Zeisel has brought to my attention the details of the draft procedure used in Austria-Hungary between 1889 and the start of World War I. This draft procedure was also based on a lottery, with every person liable for the draft (or a representative) drawing a slip of paper on which was recorded a number indicating a place in the draft list. It is conceivable that Selective Service officials, in charge of the World War I lottery in the United States, were familiar with the details of this draft lottery procedure.     

论社会弱势群体的公共文化教育问题

进入20世纪90年代以后,中国社会一个引人注目的社会现象不得不引起我们的重视,那就是伴随着贫富两极分化,社会群体收入的差距加大而分化出来的一个社会群体＂弱势群体＂,而＂弱势群体＂的公共文化教育也就成了这个群体中不可忽视的社会问题。     

村规民约的效力基础与国家法的契合

内生于乡土社会的村规民约经历了从传统到现代的创造性演进过程，在乡村治理中发挥着重要的秩序整合作用。近代以来，乡土社会的剧烈变革不断解构着村规民约的社会权力基础，国家权力向乡村地域的下沉不断冲击着村规民约的生存空间，村规民约面临着巨大的发展困境。这时，能够契合现代乡村公共精神和"乡民社会"向"市民社会"转型期的契约性权力便进入了视野，这种基于同意而形成的社会权力作为村规民约的效力基础最具理性和持久力。契约性权力为村规民约提供了权力支持，有利于实现村规民约与国家法在共生共存基础上的有机契合。     

和谐社会的建设与图书馆公共性质

和谐,确定为我国社会主义社会建设的基本性质之一。在建设和谐社会的大背景下讨论图书馆的公共性质,认识图书馆公共性质内生的社会和谐功能,更深入地探讨它的知识公共供给制度、分配均衡功能,以及知识资源普享、大众转播、地方公共物品和正的溢出效应等公平和谐性质,明确和谐社会建设和图书馆公共性的内生联系,推动公共图书馆的建设和图书馆公共性质的发挥,为建设和谐社会做出更大的贡献。     

Prediction and theory evaluation: the case of light bending

Is a theory that makes successful predictions of new facts better than one that does not? Does a fact provide better evidence for a theory if it was not known before being deduced from the theory? These questions can be answered by analyzing historical cases. Einstein's successful prediction of gravitational light bending from his general theory of relativity has been presented as an important example of how "real" science works (in contrast to alleged pseudosciences like psychoanalysis). But, while this success gained favorable publicity for the theory, most scientists did not give it any more weight than the deduction of the advance of Mercury's perihelion (a phenomenon known for several decades). The fact that scientists often use the word "prediction" to describe the deduction of such previously known facts suggests that novelty may be of little importance in evaluating theories. It may even detract from the evidential value of a fact, until it is clear that competing theories cannot account for the new fact.     

Rethinking agricultural research roles

An examination of the role ofUniversity weed scientists in herbicide efficacyresearch and long-term weed management studies raisesseveral important questions: who should do what kindof research and what kind of research should be done,and, because the university is a research institutionfunded by the public, there is also the importantquestion of who should pay for the research. Indeveloping a response to these questions, severaldimensions of the relationships within which weedscience works must be considered. The authorsexperience has demonstrated that production, thedominant value in agriculture, provides a sufficientanswer to the questions for many in weed science.However, when weed scientists claim credit forexcellence in production they must also acceptsocietys right to hold them responsible for problemsthey now treat as externalities.     

Science in europe/the antinuclear movement takes hold

Five months after the announcement of President Carter's nonproliferation policy, the common wisdom in this country is that Europe has hardly wavered in its rush toward nuclear power. The cry that "Europe will do what it wants whether the United States builds a breeder or not" is often heard from American nuclear interests, with apparent justification as the State Department has shown little visible progress in negotiating new agreements and some signs of retreating from its original goals. But popular protest against nuclear power has reached a pitch in Europe that would be barely imaginable today in this country, and the political strength of the antinuclear forces has become formidable, not only in Sweden where nuclear power was a pivotal issue last year, but across the continent. West Germany's research minister recently predicted that that country's two ruling coalition parties will vote for a complete moratorium on nuclear construction when they meet this fall, and some observers predict that any moratorium contingent on creation of a waste disposal site could last up to 12 years. Beyond public opposition, the plutonium breeder is running into trouble in Germany for many of the same reasons it has in the United States; program delays, safety concerns, and cost overruns threaten to undermine the claim that it can one day become an economically competitive energy source. Nuclear opposition is far from being a single-issue movement in Europe, as groups of many political persuasions embrace it for their own reasons. But as the following report by Nigel Hawkes details, the Carter administration policy is not the only thing holding back nuclear power in Europe.-W.D.M.     

Edison and the pure science ideal in 19th-century america

Between 1878 and 1882, key members of the American scientific community played an important role in Thomas A. Edison's work on electric lighting. Impressed by his abilities, these scientists came to regard Edison as a peer and led him to see himself as a scientific man. But Edison's high standing among scientists and the American public and his professed self-image as a scientist provoked America's noted experimental physicist, Henry A. Rowland, to make a "Plea for pure science" before the American Association for the Advancement of Science in 1883.     

Science and politics: free speech controversy at lawrence laboratory

The Lawrence Radiation Laboratory, one of the nation's most distinguished scientific institutions, has been struck by a series of "free speech" controversies in recent months. The laboratory, which is operated by the University of California and is almost entirely funded by the Atomic Energy Commission, has facilities in two California locations, Berkeley and Livermore. Each has been under fire for allegedly stifling open discussion of controversial issues. The Berkeley facility, a leading center for the study of high-energy physics and fundamental nuclear science, has been split by an internal debate over the right of scientists to hold formal political discussions at the laboratory during their lunch hours. The controversy has led to the banning of meetings, the circulating of petitions and counterpetitions bearing hundreds of names, the publishing of an underground newspaper, and the suspension of a controversial physicist. The Livermore facility, a major center for developing nuclear weapons, has been accused of trying to muzzle two staff scientists who contend that existing radiation standards are too lax to protect the public from nuclear radiation hazards. Livermore has also been the target of demonstrations and of a lawsuit seeking to open the weapons laboratory to allow discussions between outsiders and staff scientists concerning the implications of weapons research. The article below discusses the controversy at the Berkeley laboratory, where only unclassified research is performed. A subsequent article will discuss the conflict at security-conscious Livermore.     

Marine science and the 1974 law of the sea conference

More intensive and varied use of the oceans and their resources requires a more comprehensive legal reégime than previously. Three years of preparatory work have been completed leading toward the Law of the Sea Conference that opened on 20 June in Caracas, Venezuela. Although the details of the new reégime are still to be negotiated, it appears certain that the coastal nations will gain some form of jurisdiction over the fisheries and mineral resources off their shores. It is probable that a new "economic zone" will be established between a relatively narrow (12-mile) territorial sea and the international ocean space beyond. If, as seems likely, this economic zone is 200 miles wide, it will encompass some 37 percent of the ocean as shown in Fig. 1. Unless the scientific community can gather more support than it has to date, it seems probable that scientific research within this economic zone will only be possible with the consent of the coastal nation. The United States has proposed a compromise solution which attempts to balance the interests of the scientific community with those of the coastal state. Under the U.S. proposal, a research group abiding by certain specific obligations to the coastal state would be free to carry out its research activities without obtaining explicit consent from the coastal state. To date the U.S. proposal has received little official support from any nation, even from nations with major oceanographic interests.     

毛泽东晚年的社会主义发展模式及探索

毛泽东晚年的社会主义发展理想模式是一个消灭社会分工,消灭商品制度,实行全社会生产资料公有制,在意识形态上实行"斗、批、改’的社会。形成这一思想的主要因素是:中国的社会分工和商品经济的欠发达,对马克思的共产主义理论的误解,把民主革命时期的成功经验绝对化。     

Corrections and clarifications

In Joseph Palca's article "The case of the Florida dentist" (News & Comment, 24 Jan., p. 392), it should have been made clear that when Barbara Mishkin was indirectly quoted as saying that data gathered by government scientists is fair game for Freedom of Information Act requests, she was speaking of data generated by scientists in the National Institutes of Science intramural research program, unless those data fall within one of the statutory exemptions.     

Educated consumers don't believe artificial meat is the solution to the problems with the meat industry

The production of in vitro meat by cell culture has been suggested by some scientists as one solution to address the major challenges facing our society. Firstly, consumers would like the meat industry to reduce potential discomfort of animals on modern farms, or even to avoid killing animals to eat them. Secondly, citizens would like meat producers to reduce potential environmental deterioration by livestock and finally, there is a need to reduce world hunger by increasing protein resources while the global population is predicted to grow rapidly. According to its promoters, artificial meat has a potential to make eating animals unnecessary, to reduce carbon footprint of meat production and to satisfy all the nutritional needs and desires of consumers and citizens. To check these assumptions, a total of 817 educated people(mainly scientists and students) were interviewed worldwide by internet in addition to 865 French educated people. We also interviewed 208 persons(mainly scientists) after an oral presentation regarding artificial meat. Results of the three surveys were similar, but differed between males and females. More than half of the respondents believed that "artificial meat" was feasible and realistic. However, there was no majority to think that artificial meat will be healthy and tasty, except respondents who were in favour of artificial meat. A large majority of the respondents believed that the meat industry is facing important problems related to the protection of the environment, animal welfare or inefficient meat production to feed humanity. However, respondents did not believe that artificial meat will be the solution to solve the mentioned problems with the meat industry, especially respondents who were against artificial meat. The vast majority of consumers wished to continue to eat meat even they would accept to consume less meat in a context of increasing food needs. Only a minority of respondents(from 5 to 11%) would recommend or accept to eat in vitro meat instead of meat produced from farm animals. Despite these limitations, 38 to 47% of the respondents would continue to support research on artificial meat, but a majority of them believed that artificial meat will not be accepted by consumers in the future, except for respondents who were in favour of artificial meat. We speculated that the apparent contradictory answers to this survey expressed the fact that people trust scientists whoare supposed to continuously discover new technologies potentially useful in a long term future for the human beings, but people also expressed concern for their health and were not convinced that artificial meat will be tasty, safe and healthy enough to be accepted by consumers.     

Crisis management: some opportunities

Modern crises present decision makers with many agonizing management choices. Very often a crisis manager is confronted with a plethora of conflicting information and given very little time to choose an appropriate course of action. Although contemporary methods of systems analysis have been used in attempts to organize data and clarify options, they have generally been of little use in presenting an accurate picture of an opponent's values and perceptions. Thus it is clear that we must now make use of the improved communications and technological devices at our disposal if crises are to be avoided or resolved with minimum damage. Our proposal to establish international model-oriented computer-assisted conferences is designed to promote greater cooperation and understanding among scientists and crisis managers of differing nations by enabling them to share images of themselves and one another. With better information and more rational options available, the chances of catastrophic misunderstanding or miscalculation can be meaningfully reduced. We have proposed a possible scenario for the initial implementation of such a system to combat famine, and hope that the same approach might be used in other areas over time. The ultimate goal is a system by which specialists of all persuasions cooperate so that international crises will be resolved on the bases of mutual benefits without resort to armed conflict.     

金大米的知识产权问题分析及启示

世界知名的转基因作物、富含类胡萝卜素的金大米是由公共研究机构以人道主义为目的研发的,金大米的研发过程经历曲折,它在得到众多荣耀的同时,也引来诸多争议,知识产权问题就是其中一个重要方面。本文在介绍金大米技术探索之路的基础上,通过分析金大米的知识产权问题,揭示表面上看来非常严重的知识产权障碍其实却并非不可逾越,尤其在发展中国家,例如在中国现在就可能没有与金大米相关的任何专利存在。本文还探讨了在生物技术领域内逐渐兴起的反公共地悲剧问题。最后结合实际,总结了金大米的知识产权问题带给中国科技工作者的启示,包括应认真对待在科研工作中可能出现的知识产权障碍和应认清中国现在仍基本处于公共地悲剧阶段而非反公共地悲剧阶段等。     

“三农”背景下农村职业教育公共产品特征分析

“三农”问题一直是人们关注的焦点,农村职业教育滞后是其中一个被忽视的重要因素。农村职业教育一直以来被认定为准公共产品,影响了供给方式和其资金来源,会导致农村职业教育发展薄弱。因此,文章分析了界定农村职业教育的产品属性的意义,结合“三农”大背景下的新农村建设、农村公共财政建设,来界定其产品属性,得出农村职业教育是纯公共产品的结论。