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1.
We developed a deterministic and stochastic age-based matrix projection population model to assess and quantify the impact of mortality caused by chronic oil pollution and legal hunting on thick-billed murre Uria lomvia populations breeding and wintering in eastern Canada. We calculate the potential population growth rate in the absence of anthropogenic mortality sources using a modeling technique that translates absolute number of birds killed from anthropogenic mortality to potential survival rates in the absence of these anthropogenic impacts. The intrinsic growth rate of the deterministic matrix based on vital rates from Coats Island (λd=1.0102), as well as the stochastic growth rate (λs=1.0098, 95% C.I. 0.9969-1.0226), matched observed population trends. Hunting mortality reduced population growth rate by 0.020 (0.012-0.039), oiling mortality reduced population growth rate by 0.025 (0.012-0.039). Combined these sources reduced the population growth rate by 0.047 (0.033-0.610). Although thick-billed murre populations are stable or slowly growing in eastern Canada, anthropogenic sources of mortality are reducing the ability of the population to grow, and increase vulnerability in these populations to changes in their environment and other pulse perturbations. Our modeling technique could be used to assess specific anthropogenic impacts on populations where a vital rates and numbers killed are known, but no long-term trend information is available.  相似文献   

2.
The flesh-footed shearwater (Puffinus carneipes) is a medium-sized seabird (ca. 700 g) that is incidentally killed during longline fishing operations. We examined the levels of bycatch in Australia’s Eastern Tuna and Billfish Fishery and developed a model to examine the impact of this fishery on the eastern Australian population of flesh-footed shearwaters, which breeds at only one site, Lord Howe Island. Observed bycatch rates for flesh-footed shearwaters were 0.378 birds/1000 hooks for night sets, and 0.945 birds/1000 hooks for day sets. The mean number of birds killed from 1998 to 2002 was estimated to be 1794-4486 birds per year, with the estimated total killed over this period ranging from 8972 to 18,490 birds. Models incorporating both density-independent and density-dependent scenarios were applied to levels of bycatch representative of that observed in the fishery. Density-independent scenarios showed that fishing mortality levels caused declines in the majority of simulated populations. In contrast, density-dependent scenarios produced populations that were more resilient to fishing mortalities. Although some modelling scenarios led to population growth, under most stochastic simulations median population halving and quasi-extinction times were less than 55 and 120 years, respectively. We conclude that the level of bycatch observed in the fishery is most likely unsustainable and threatens the survival of the Lord Howe Island population. This situation can be improved only with the development and implementation of mitigation measures that will halt or greatly reduce the level of bycatch currently observed. Improved knowledge on a range of demographic parameters for the species, combined with a clearer idea of the at-sea distribution of breeding and non-breeding shearwaters, will greatly assist in improving understanding and the management of this population.  相似文献   

3.
We consider estimation of the magnitude of incidental fisheries ‘bycatch’ for two petrel species, sooty shearwaters (Puffinus griseus) and short-tailed shearwaters (Puffinus tenuirostris). There are clear statistical advantages in estimating bycatch for abundant species such as these, and our results may also guide the conservation and management of rarer species. We used fisheries statistics and observer data to estimate retrospectively the total numbers of sooty and short-tailed shearwaters bycatch in seven large-scale pelagic North Pacific driftnet fisheries between 1952 and 2001. Sensitivity analysis greatly simplified estimation of uncertainty by identifying four driftnet fisheries to be of particular importance in determining the magnitude and precision of the estimated bycatch totals. We estimated that between 1.0 and 12.8 million (95% CI) sooty shearwaters were killed by driftnets between 1952 and 2001. For short-tailed shearwaters we estimated between 4.6 and 21.2 million (95% CI) over the same period. More precise estimation was hampered by the paucity of available observer data, lack of reported detail and inconsistencies among data sources. Estimates may be strongly biased because some dead birds are misidentified or drop out of nets before hauling, or because some records were of live captures that were subsequently released. Improved estimation of overall take and its impact on populations of seabirds requires standardisation of reporting, allowance for potential sampling bias, as well as a clearer definition of the sampling unit and underlying bycatch probability distribution model, and knowledge of potential compensatory changes in population parameters.  相似文献   

4.
The leatherback turtle Dermochelys coriacea is considered to be at serious risk of global extinction, despite ongoing conservation efforts. Intensive long-term monitoring of a leatherback nesting population on Sandy Point (St. Croix, US Virgin Islands) offers a unique opportunity to quantify basic population parameters and evaluate effectiveness of nesting beach conservation practices. We report a significant increase in the number of females nesting annually from ca. 18-30 in the 1980s to 186 in 2001, with a corresponding increase in annual hatchling production from ca. 2000 to over 49,000. We then analyzed resighting data from 1991 to 2001 with an open robust-design capture-mark-recapture model to estimate annual nester survival and adult abundance for this population. The expected annual survival probability was estimated at ca. 0.893 (95% CI: 0.87-0.92) and the population was estimated to be increasing ca. 13% pa since the early 1990s. Taken together with DNA fingerprinting that identify mother-daughter relations, our findings suggest that the increase in the size of the nesting population since 1991 was probably due to an aggressive program of beach protection and egg relocation initiated more than 20 years ago. Beach protection and egg relocation provide a simple and effective conservation strategy for this Northern Caribbean nesting population as long as adult survival at sea remains relatively high.  相似文献   

5.
Roads negatively affect animal populations by presenting barriers to movement and gene flow and by causing mortality. We investigated the impact of a secondary road on a population of black ratsnakes (Elaphe obsoleta) in Ontario, Canada by radio-tracking 105 individuals over 8 years. The road was not a significant barrier to movement and none of the reproductive classes examined (male, non-reproductive female, reproductive female) avoided crossing the road. However, the road was a significant source of mortality. From a total of 115 road crossings by radio-implanted snakes, 3 individuals were killed by cars, resulting in a mortality rate of 0.026 deaths per crossing. We multiplied this mortality rate by the total number of expected road crossings by all individuals in the population in an active season (340) to estimate the number of road kills (9 individuals) each year. This estimate was higher than the actual number of road kills found, but half the number estimated from road kill models. Population viability analysis revealed that our estimate of road mortality was enough to increase the extinction probability for this population from 7.3% to 99% over 500 years. Road mortality of more than 3 adult females per year increased the extinction probability to >90%. Our results strengthen the view that road mortality can have a pronounced negative effect on populations of long-lived species.  相似文献   

6.
The migratory white stork (Ciconia ciconia) became extinct in Switzerland in 1950. A reintroduction project with intensive management (translocation, prevention of migration, artificial feeding) started in 1948, and 175 pairs were breeding in 2000. For the period 1973-2000 we estimated annual survival rates and fledging success to estimate the population growth rate by a stochastic matrix projection model. Compared to other populations, adult survival rate (0.86, with 95% CI: 0.81-0.89) was very high and little variable over time, juvenile survival (0.37, CI: 0.31-0.43) was comparable to other populations whereas the average fledging success was low (1.65) but strongly variable over time. The population growth rate was positive, indicating that the population is self-sustainable at the moment. The growth of the white stork population was largely favoured by the high adult survival which more than compensates for the low fledging success. The population growth rate is particularly sensitive to changes in adult survival, but it would be very difficult to improve this further with management. However, maintenance of the high adult survival is crucial and an improvement in fledging success seems important for the long-term persistence of the white stork population in Switzerland. Fledging success depends on habitat quality, and thus restoration of breeding habitats should be the main management activity in the near future.  相似文献   

7.
CONTEXT: This paper reports on findings from the ex-post evaluation of the Maewo Capacity Building project in Maewo Island, Vanuatu, which was funded by World Vision Australia. OBJECTIVES: To examine the extent to which the infrastructure and systems left behind by the project contributed to the improvement of household food security and health and nutritional outcomes in Maewo Island, using Ambae Island as a comparator. SETTING: Two-stage cluster survey conducted from 6 to 20 July 2004, which included anthropometric measures and 4.5-year retrospective mortality data collection. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 406 households in Maewo comprising 1623 people and 411 households in Ambae comprising 1799 people. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Household food insecurity, crude mortality rate (CMR), under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and malnutrition prevalence among children. RESULTS: The prevalence of food insecurity without hunger was estimated at 15.3% (95% confidence interval (CI): 12.1, 19.2%) in Maewo versus 38.2% (95% CI: 33.6, 43.0%) in Ambae, while food insecurity with hunger in children did not vary by location. After controlling for the child's age and gender, children in Maewo had higher weight-for-age and height-for-age Z-scores than children of the same age in Ambae. The CMR was lower in Maewo (CMR = 0.47/10 000 per day, 95% CI: 0.39, 0.55) than in Ambae (CMR=0.59/10 000 per day, 95% CI: 0.51, 0.67) but no difference existed in U5MR. The major causes of death were similar in both locations, with frequently reported causes being malaria, acute respiratory infection and diarrhoeal disease. CONCLUSIONS: Project initiatives in Maewo Island have reduced the risks of mortality and malnutrition. Using a cross-sectional 'external control group' design, this paper demonstrates that it is possible to draw conclusions about project effectiveness where baseline data are incomplete or absent. Shifting from donor-driven evaluations to impact evaluations has greater learning value for the organisation, and greater value when reporting back to the beneficiaries about project impact and transformational development in their community. Public health nutritionists working in the field are well versed in the collection and interpretation of anthropometric data for evaluation of nutritional interventions such as emergency feeding programmes. These same skills can be used to conduct impact evaluations, even some time after project completion, and elucidate lessons to be learned and shared. These skills can also be applied more widely to projects which impact on the longer-term nutritional status of communities and their food security.  相似文献   

8.
Recovery of the endangered Vancouver Island marmot (Marmota vancouverensis) is contingent upon releases of captive-born marmots into natural habitats. Success of such re-introduction programs largely depends on the ability of released animals to survive in the wild. However, whether and to what extent survival and cause-specific mortality rates of captive-born marmots differ from those of their wild-born counterparts remains unknown. We used radio-telemetry (1992–2007) and mark-resighting (1987–2007) data to estimate seasonal and annual survival rates of the Vancouver Island marmot, to compare survival and cause-specific mortality rates of captive-born marmots that have been released into the natural habitat with those of wild-born marmots, and to test for the effect of age-at-release on survival of the released marmots. Analysis of radio-telemetry data suggested no difference in survival of males versus females. However, annual survival of captive-born marmots released into the wild was low (S = 0.605; 95% CI = 0.507–0.696) compared to wild-born marmots (S = 0.854; 95% CI = 0.760–0.915). Marmots released as 2-year-old or older survived more successfully than those released as yearlings. Additional forensic evidence reinforced the idea that predation was the most important cause of mortality. Causes of death differed significantly between captive-born and wild-born marmots. Predation by golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetus) was the most important cause of mortality for captive-born marmots, whereas predation by wolves (Canis lupus) and cougars (Felis concolor) was more important for wild-born marmots. Age-specific apparent annual survival rate, estimated using the combined mark-resighting and radio-telemetry data, was lowest for pups (S = 0.500; 95% CI = 0.375–0.616) and highest for yearlings and adults (S = 0.656; 95% CI = 0.604–0.705); and apparent survival of 2-year-old was similar to that of yearlings and adults (S = 0.649; 95% CI = 0.527–0.754). Our results, based on the analysis of radio-telemetry data, suggest that delaying release of captive-born marmots until 2 years of age may enhance their probability of survival in the wild, and will likely improve the success of the release program.  相似文献   

9.
Grey nurse sharks off the east coast of Australia are listed nationally as “critically endangered” under Schedule 1 of the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act (1999) and may number no more than 300 in New South Wales and southern Queensland waters. They are an inshore, coastal dwelling species and were severely depleted by spearfishing in the 1960s. The population has continued to decline despite protection since 1984. Their life history (long-lived to 25+ years), late maturation (6-8 years), low fecundity (maximum 2 live young biennially), specific habitat requirements, limited inshore distribution, and small population size render them particularly vulnerable to extinction. We estimated the time to quasi-extinction (years elapsed for the population to consist of ?50 females) for the grey nurse shark population off the east coast of Australia based on current estimates of abundance and known anthropogenic rates of mortality. Estimated minimum population size was 300 as of 2002, and minimum anthropogenic mortality assessed from recovered carcasses was 12/year of which 75% were females. We modelled time to quasi-extinction using deterministic age- and stage-classified models for worst-, likely and best-case scenarios. Population size was estimated at 300 (worst), 1000 (likely) and 3000 (best). Anthropogenic mortality was added to the model assuming either all carcasses are being recovered (best), or conservatively, that only 50% are reported (realistic). Depending on model structure, if all carcasses are being reported, quasi-extinction times for worst-, likely and best-case scenarios range from 13 to 16 years, 84-98 years and 289-324 years, respectively. If under-reporting is occurring, time to quasi-extinction ranges from 6 to 8 years, 45-53 years and 173-200 years, respectively. In all scenarios modelled the grey nurse shark population will decline if no further steps are taken to remove anthropogenic sources of mortality. Because estimates of quasi-extinction rate depend on initial population size, and sensitivity analysis revealed that population rate of change was most sensitive to changes in the survival probability of the smallest length classes, obtaining precise estimates of abundance and annual survival of young females is critical.  相似文献   

10.
We conduct a decision analysis that explores the effects of trawl-related fishery mortality on achieving the population recovery goals for the US federally-endangered short-tailed albatross (Phoebastria albatrus), proposed by the US Fish and Wildlife Service. A population model is constructed and its parameters estimated using data on counts of the numbers of albatross chicks and eggs at Torishima Island, Japan, where 83% of the world’s population of this species is found. Bayesian inference is used to assign probabilities to alternative plausible rates of fishing mortality and as the basis for population projections with different levels of trawl mortality to determine their effects on achieving the population recovery goals. The analyses of the impact of trawl mortality on the Torishima short-tailed albatross population suggests that exceeding the current expected incidental take in the Alaskan groundfish trawl fishery, two in any 5-year period, by as much as a factor of 10 would have little impact on when the proposed recovery goals for the species are achieved. A quantitative approach that addresses uncertainty, such as that outlined in this study, could aid the process to evaluate allowable limits in light of species recovery goals by addressing both take limits and recovery goals within the same framework.  相似文献   

11.
The red-footed booby, Sula sula, has been hunted in the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, eastern Indian Ocean, since first settlement in 1827. Formerly present throughout the islands, an estimated 30,000 pairs now breed only on isolated and uninhabited North Keeling Island. Despite legislative protection, illegal hunting for food remains a major conservation threat. Informants estimated that 2000-3000 birds are killed in most years and possibly as many as 10,000 in some years. Analysis of nest count data collected between 1985 and 2002 to assess long-term population trends showed no evidence of decline in nesting density. There was large inter-annual variation with substantial fluctuations which tended to be greater following significant cyclonic events. These results indicate that the level of illegal harvest during the study period has not negatively impacted the booby nesting population. Future management of seabird harvesting requires improved knowledge on the population's capacity to sustain harvesting, together with increased enforcement activity to control illegal harvest, and enhanced education programs to encourage change in community attitudes.  相似文献   

12.
OBJECTIVES: A study was conducted among the Onge tribe of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands with the objectives of identifying demographic factors responsible for the decline in their population and assessing their nutritional status, which is an important determinant of child survival. STUDY DESIGN AND SUBJECTS: The study included estimation of indices of fertility and child mortality, and assessment of nutritional status. All individuals of the Onge community settled on Little Andaman Island were included. RESULTS: The mean total marital fertility rate was estimated to be 5.15 live births per woman and the general fertility rate was 200 live births per 1000 married-woman-years. Although the gross reproduction rate was estimated to be 2.2 female children per married woman, the net reproduction rate was only 0.9 surviving female child per married woman. The mean infant mortality rate during the past 30 years was 192.7 per 1000 live births, and the child survival rate was found to be only 53.2%. A mild to moderate degree of malnutrition was found in 85% of children of pre-school age and severe malnutrition in 10%. The Onges had low intakes of iron, vitamin A and vitamin C. All the screened Onges were found to be infested with one or more intestinal parasites. CONCLUSIONS: High childhood mortality appears to be the predominant demographic factor responsible for the decline in the Onge population. The high prevalence of undernutrition and micronutrient deficiency disorders could be important factors contributing to the high childhood mortality.  相似文献   

13.
Namibian cheetahs have suffered, and continue to suffer, high levels of removal due to conflict with local farmers, and it is important to understand the demography of this population in order to determine its likely persistence. Examination of cheetahs reported live-trapped or killed by local farmers, combined with subsequent information from radio-telemetry, allowed demographic parameters such as sex ratios, age and social structure, litter size, interbirth intervals and survivorship to be estimated for cheetahs on Namibian farmlands. Cub mortality was relatively low, but adult mortality was high, particularly for males, and peaked at 5-6 years of age. Neither marking nor relocating cheetahs seemed to affect survivorship, and there was no difference in survivorship between the sexes. Time spent in captivity did not appear to affect survival after release. These findings will be useful in formulating recommendations regarding the conservation and sustainable utilization of cheetah populations outside protected areas.  相似文献   

14.
15.
Meadow breeding birds such as the whinchat Saxicola rubetra have been declining due to increased farming intensity. In modern grassland management, the first mowing and the bird’s breeding cycle coincide, causing high nest destruction rates and low productivity of grassland bird populations. However, it is virtually unknown whether the mowing process directly affects adult survival by accidentally killing incubating females. We studied adult survival of an Alpine whinchat population during two breeding seasons using either colour-ringing or radio-tracking of 71 adults. Assessing territories, mowing phenology and nest destruction from 1988 to 2007 allowed changes in the factors associated with female mowing mortality to be estimated. Adult survival over 5-day-periods was Φ = 0.986, but during the period of mowing female survival was strongly reduced (Φ = 0.946). As a result, 80.6% of the males, but only 68.4% of the females survived the breeding season. Mowing undoubtedly killed two of 20 radio-tagged females when they were laying or incubating. In the 20-year period, an increasing proportion of nests were destroyed before the chicks hatched and this change was associated with an increased distortion of the adult sex ratio. Modelling the population growth rate showed that including the additional effect of mowing on female mortality resulted in a 1.7 times faster local population decline. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the extinction of whinchat populations in the lowlands of central Europe was caused not only by habitat degradation and low productivity, but also by increased man-made female mortality.  相似文献   

16.
This study presented evidence that creates a quandary for conservation management: predation by one threatened species, New Zealand sea lion (Phocarctos hookeri), threatens the viability of another threatened species, yellow-eyed penguin (Megadyptes antipodes), at Otago Peninsula, South Island, New Zealand. Otago Peninsula holds the largest population of yellow-eyed penguins on South Island and the only breeding population of New Zealand sea lions on the New Zealand mainland. New Zealand sea lions here represent the vanguard of re-colonisation within their prehistoric range, with nine females and 50-70 males resident in 2005. The initial indication of a potential problem was an attack on a yellow-eyed penguin by a New Zealand sea lion witnessed in 1996. The majority of 20 records for attacks were at two neighbouring sites, where they coincided with decreases in penguin nest numbers and adult annual survival. In contrast, penguin nest numbers increased at a third site, the main base for male sea lions at Otago Peninsula. Evidence from prey remains indicated that male sea lions did not eat yellow-eyed penguins but that females ate 20-30 annually, with one individual possibly responsible for most kills. Modelling indicated that the penguin population at any one site could not remain viable if it was the sole source of penguins killed. The dilemma is either to do nothing, and risk collapse of the Otago Peninsula population of yellow-eyed penguins, or to take action against known culprits, and risk failure in re-colonisation of the New Zealand mainland by New Zealand sea lions.  相似文献   

17.
Introduction of the snail-eating flatworm Platydemus manokwari has caused extinction and decline of native land snails on tropical and subtropical islands. As the factors influencing flatworm predation pressure on land snails remain unclear, I examined the effects of seasonal variation in flatworm predation pressure on land snail survival in the wild on a subtropical island. I also examined the feeding activities of P. manokwari under laboratory conditions. Survival rates of land snails experimentally placed on the forest floor for 7 days ranged from 0% to 100% among seasons on the oceanic island Chichijima [Ogasawara (Bonin) Islands]. More than 90% of snails were killed by P. manokwari within 7 days in the period from July to November, while less than 40% of snails were killed in other months. Snail mortality rate (0-100%) attributable to P. manokwari was positively correlated with mean temperature (17.1-27.3 °C) in the study area. Laboratory experiments showed that low temperature influenced snail survival and regulated feeding activity of P. manokwari. Laboratory experiments also suggested that high densities of P. manokwari may cause a rapid decline in snail survival. Therefore, ambient temperature and density of P. manokwari may regulate seasonal variations in predation pressure on land snails. Recent global warming may increase the probability of invasion and population establishment, and elevate the impacts of P. manokwari in temperate regions.  相似文献   

18.
The Tristan albatross Diomedea [exulans] dabbenena is the third rarest albatross species, with a breeding population of around 1500 pairs almost totally restricted to Gough Island in the Tristan da Cunha group, central South Atlantic. During January 2000, the entire breeding population of Gough was surveyed for the first time since 1956, and 2400 incubating pairs were counted. An analysis of the areas that are likely to have been surveyed most accurately in the past suggests that the population has decreased by around 28% over 46 years. The number of large chicks counted over three successive seasons (1999-2001) was highly variable (range 318-1129). The average count over this period (705 chicks) is less than counts made in 1979 (792) and 1982 (798). A total of 656 chicks were counted in September 2001, giving an island breeding success of just 27.3%. However, breeding success varied considerably in different areas of the island, ranging from 17.6 to 68.0%. During the 2001 season most breeding failures were of large chicks, and over 4 years where data were available, 75% of breeding failures occurred during the chick period. Predation by introduced house mice Mus musculus is the most likely cause of chick mortality. In a small study population, birds began breeding at an average age of 9.7 years and annual adult survival from 1985 to 2001 was 92.6% (SE=1.6%). Both breeding success and adult survival estimates are low in comparison with other Diomedea species and population modelling predicts a population decreasing at an annual rate of 2.9-5.3%. Further research is needed urgently to assess whether breeding success is typical, and to confirm that mouse predation is the cause of chick mortality. The low productivity of this species will compound the negative impacts of longline fishing mortality, which are likely to be reducing adult and juvenile survival.  相似文献   

19.
As part of our ungulate population protection program, the specific causes of ungulate mortality were examined and the effect of single habitat on habitat selection by ungulate analyzed. An integrated occurrence–mortality model for three ungulate species (wild boar Sus scrofa L., red deer Cervus elaphus L. and roe deer Capreolus capreolus Pallas) within the Wanda Mountains of Heilongjiang Province, China was then created. Results showed that steel cable snares and poison, used to kill ungulates, were the primary threats to survival of wild boar (40.07% poison, 27.79% cable snares), red deer (51.35% poison, 40.54% cable snares) and roe deer (29.31% poison, 56.90% cable snares). Furthermore, we found evidence that aspect, slope, elevation and forest type are important factors in determining ungulate habitat preference. The integrated occurrence–mortality model indicated that 46.39% of suitable habitat was associated with mortality risk. This model correctly classified 8.06% (297.49 km2) of the study area as unsuitable habitat, 5.43% (200.44 km2) as first attractive sink-like habitat, 32.76% (1209.85 km2) as second attractive sink-like habitat, 8.20% (302.77 km2) as third attractive sink-like habitat, and 8.91% (329.00 km2), 30.53% (1127.22 km2) and 6.11% (225.29 km2) as first, second and third source-like habitats, respectively. The results indicate that source-like habitats should be preserved to prevent habitat loss and degradation, while attractive sink-like habitats should be managed effectively to mitigate mortality risks. In particular, the various authorities need to be more proactive (increase patrolling, thereby providing employment, educational opportunities and increasing income) to reduce human-caused ungulate mortality.  相似文献   

20.
As large, long-lived seabirds with delayed and slow reproduction, albatrosses have low intrinsic mortality rates and are especially vulnerable to extinction from extrinsic sources of mortality such as fishery bycatch. Leg-band recovery information for waved albatrosses revealed mortality from both incidental catch and intentional catch for human consumption. Annual adult survival in 1999-2005, estimated from capture-mark-recapture data, was lower than historical estimates. This recent increase in adult mortality probably contributed to recent and dramatic shrinkage of the breeding population; periodic matrix models confirm that population growth rate is most sensitive to changes in adult survival. Banding data and recovery information also suggest that capture by fisheries is male-biased, which should reduce fecundity in this species with obligate bi-parental care. This new documentation of bycatch, harvesting, and associated demographic consequences provides reason for serious concern about the persistence of the single breeding population of the waved albatross.  相似文献   

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