Globalization and Regional Change in the U.S. Furniture Industry

ABSTRACT Furniture manufacturing has experienced rapid globalization in recent years. This is mainly the result of global production networks established by large manufacturers and retailers seeking to reduce costs in a highly competitive environment. The industry's globalization has been facilitated by technological innovations and the global reduction of trade and investment barriers. In the U.S., furniture‐producing regions are experiencing tumultuous change. Growing numbers of firms are outsourcing production to China, which is now responsible for about half of all U.S. furniture imports. Employment levels have plummeted. However, an analysis of spatial patterns of employment, output, and capital investment in U.S. furniture manufacturing shows that regional change is not uniform. Southern regions characterized by larger firms specializing in wooden case goods production have been especially vulnerable to job loss.     

Fertility divergence across large and small areas

This paper examines U.S. female fertility during 2005–2019. Small areas had higher fertility rates than large metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) during each year. Both experienced fertility declines between 2005 and 2019. However, decreased fertility was more pronounced for large MSAs, and the fertility gap between large and small areas widened considerably. Investigation by age group reveals that diverging fertility across large and small areas is driven by women ages 25–34. We also use multivariate regression analysis for ages 25–34 to consider relationships between individual-level and area-level characteristics and spatial divergence in fertility. Employment patterns, foreign-born status, and local housing costs are notable factors.     

Income Migration and Income Convergence across U.S. States, 1995–2010

In this paper we examine how internal migration redistributes earned income across U.S. states between 1995 and 2010. We examine interregional income flows by first describing the movement of earned income between U.S. states. Second, we examine the effect of income migration on spatial patterns of income inequality. The question we ask is, “does migration increase or decrease convergence income across U.S. States?” A primary contribution of this paper is that instead of using only 1 year of income migration data to explore these issues, we use yearly data from the first year the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) data started including income (1995/1996) up to the most current data available (2009/2010). Results indicate that income convergence/divergence across states varies by whether or not there is general economic expansion or contraction. Nevertheless, some high‐amenity states continually attract high‐income households.     

Restructuring Appalachian Manufacturing in 1963–1992: The Role of Branch Plants

This paper uses the Longitudinal Research Database (LRD),a unique, detailed, plant‐level database that covers the entire U.S. manufacturing sector in five‐year intervals to examine how the manufacturing sector in Appalachia has evolved over the past thirty years (from 1963 to 1992). The research focuses on three questions:1) Is the Appalachian Region attracting new manufacturing plants at the same rate as the rest of the country? 2) Does Appalachian manufacturing employment exhibit low wage, low productivity characteristics, compared with the rest of the country? 3) Is Appalachia still heavily reliant on branch plants? The results show the manufacturing base of Appalachia in 1992 looks very much the same as it did in 1967. Compared to the rest of the country, Appalachian manufacturing is still more reliant on branch plants and is characterized by lower wage and lower productivity establishments. This result is not due to a lack of entry—manufacturing plant entry rates and manufacturing job formation associated with entrants in Appalachia are only slightly lower than for the U.S. as a whole. Job destruction rates caused by exits are actually lower than in the U.S. as a whole.     

Recent intra-metropolitan patterns of spatial mismatch: Implications for black suburbanization and the changing geography of mismatch

Kain's spatial mismatch hypothesis (SMH) (1968) highlights the segregation of Black population in the inner city as well as the decentralization of jobs, both of which played a role in the poor labor market outcomes for Black residents in the inner city. Demographic and economic changes in U.S. metropolitan areas since the late 20th century have transformed the urban spatial structure. This paper aims to revisit the SMH and investigate whether the spatial pattern of mismatch has changed as a result of geographic shifts in the Black population. This paper specifically examines how the suburbanization of the Black population has affected the geographic patterns of mismatch and whether the mismatch is disappearing in the major U.S. metropolitan areas. Using spatial measures of mismatch, this paper presents intra-metropolitan spatial mismatch patterns that capture the clustering of jobs and the Black population based on their relative distributions, showing that the overall level of spatial mismatch declined in major U.S. metropolitan areas between 2000 and 2015. However, geographical evidence reveals that the spatial mismatch has shifted to the outer suburbs, replicating city-suburb spatial inequality, implying that although mismatch may have declined in the inner city due to Black suburbanization, spatial mismatch continue to persist in U.S. metropolitan areas in Black suburbs. The findings also demonstrate that although spatial mismatch generally declined in the inner city, it increased in cities with high inner city polarization, particularly New York, Chicago, San Francisco, and Seattle.     

Air Passenger Transportation and Growth in the U.S. Urban System, 1950–1987

The relationship between transportation and urbanization at the national scale is revisited by focusing upon the role that air passenger transportation has played in the post-war evolution of the U.S. urban system. Theory suggests that major transportation innovations have exhibited profound and prolonged interdependencies with patterns of growth in national or regional urban systems. As the most recent major intercity transportation innovation, it should be expected that utilization of air transportation should bear some relationship to patterns of growth in urban places. This paper documents this relationship by using FAA and U.S. Census data to correlate volumes of air passenger flows per capita with changes in population and employment for the 50 largest U.S. metropolitan areas. The expectation that higher volumes of air passenger flow per capita exhibit a positive correlation with both previous and subsequent growth is confirmed by the analysis. More detailed examination of both high and low air passenger index cities suggests functional and regional consistencies with the central hypothesis. The implications of these results for air transportation and airport planning include at least some justification for increased attention to provision of air service and adequate airport infrastructure as well as reiteration of the importance of air transportation in economic development.     

Spatial Divisions of Corporate Services Occupations in the United States, 1983–88

This article examines corporate services from a regional perspective, using the concept of “spatial divisions of labor.” We examine non-routine, control-related activity as well as routine activity, bridging the literatures on white- and pink-collar work. Using the Geographic Profile on Employment and Unemployment, published by the U.S. Department of Labor, we examine occupational data across the nine census divisions continuously from 1983 through 1988. This data source is unique because it reports on occupational data annually, in relatively disaggregate form, and does so by geographic regions. Location quotients for the occupational data serve to identify a “core” with respect to concentrations of control-related activity. This core comprises the New England, Middle Atlantic, and Pacific divisions. In contrast, routine activity generally is more dispersed, although some regional separation is evident for specific occupations, showing regional concentration in subordinate or “peripheral” regions. The results of the study identify regional patterns, which are heuristically valuable in raising questions regarding the complex processes responsible for spatial divisions of labor. In particular, the findings suggest a geography of modes of production, a subject that requires substantially more attention.     

U.S. Commuting Networks and Economic Growth: Measurement and Implications for Spatial Policy

Labor market areas (LMAs) have long been a staple of regional and urban analysis. As commuting patterns have expanded over time, these areas have become larger and more complex, and the dichotomous designation of a county either belonging to an LMA or not may no longer be adequate. We apply recent advances in network science to conduct a more refined analysis of U.S. commuting patterns, and examine their effects on local economic growth. Results show that network degree and entropy measures explain variations in county per capita income growth patterns. Higher in‐ and out‐commuting entropies are associated with lower per capita income growth, but their interaction enhances economic growth in places simultaneously open to both in‐ and out‐commuters. Using these results, common ground may be found for creating new forms of regional governance that better reflect local realities of cross‐county border flows of workers and economic activity.     

Interregional Spillovers in Regional Impact Assessment: New Mexico,Texas, and the Supreme Court

ABSTRACT Input-output models are frequently used to estimate impacts, benefits or damages from some event. These analytic models and the questions they are designed to answer are usually based on political definitions of regions. However the true impacts propagate according to the actual spatial pattern of the regional economy. Because of the divergence between the political regions used for analysis and the economic regions on the ground, the economic impacts which spill over political boundaries can sometimes become analytically important. This paper applies these concepts to a case study of allocating irrigation water from the Pecos River in Texas and New Mexico. The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that New Mexico used water belonging to Texas. Our analysis suggests that the spillover benefits to Texas from New Mexico's use of the water might equal or exceed the benefits which Texas would have gotten from using the water itself. Texas might be better off because New Mexico took its water.     

Growth and Location of Economic Activity: The Spatial Dynamics of Industries in Canada 1971–2001

ABSTRACT A growing literature has accumulated that points to the stability of industrial location patterns. Can this be reconciled with spatial dynamics? This article starts with the premise that demonstrable regularities exist in the manner in which individual industries locate (and relocate) over space. For Canada, spatial distributions of employment are examined for seventy‐one industries over a thirty‐year period (1971–2001). Industry data is organized by “synthetic regions” based on urban size and distance criteria. “Typical” location patterns are identified for industry groupings. Industrial spatial concentrations are then compared over time using correlation analysis, showing a high degree of stability. Stable industrial location patterns are not, the article finds, incompatible with differential regional growth. Five spatial processes are identified, driving change. The chief driving force is the propensity of dynamic industries to start up in large metro areas, setting off a process of diffusion (for services) and crowding out (for manufacturing), offset by the centralizing impact of greater consumer mobility and falling transport costs. These changes do not, however, significantly alter the relative spatial distribution of most industries over time.     

Short‐Run Dynamics of Income Disparities and Regional Cycle Synchronization in the U.S.

Since the 1990s, the issue of regional income convergence and its long‐term tendencies has been thoroughly and heatedly discussed. Much less attention, however, has been devoted to the short‐run dynamics of regional convergence. In particular, three important aspects have not yet been adequately addressed. First, it is indeed essential to understand whether regional disparities manifest a tendency to move systematically along the national cycle. Then, if this happens to be the case, it becomes crucial to know whether 1) these movements are pro‐ or counter‐cyclical,2) the cyclical evolution of the disparities is a consequence of differences in the timing with which the business cycle is felt in regions or it is motivated by the amplitude differences across local cyclical swings. In this paper, we shed light on these issues using data on personal income for the 48 coterminous U.S. states between 1969 and 2008. Our results indicate that income disparities do not move randomly in the short run but follow a distinct cyclical pattern, moving either pro‐ or counter‐cyclically depending on the period of analysis. These patterns are probably explained by the changes in the direction of capital and labor flows that favor developed or poorer states in different periods. As for the underlying mechanism, it appears that the short‐run evolution of the disparities in recent years is largely a consequence of differences in the timing with which the business cycle is felt across states rather than the outcome of amplitude differences across local cyclical swings.     

The Growing Economic Specialization of Cities: Disentangling Industrial and Functional Dimensions in the Canadian Urban System, 1971–2006

Decreasing spatial transaction and trade costs have given rise to growing economic specialization of cities. While most studies focus on industries as the primary manifestation of urban specialization, a growing body of literature examines occupational functions, i.e., activities and tasks performed within a given industry or firm. This paper explores how the two dimensions (industries and functions) interact across the urban system and their relative importance over time. Is there a trend toward increasing functional specialization in the Canadian urban system? How much of this phenomenon is attributable to spatial shifts in regional industrial structures as opposed to spatial divisions within industries? The paper uses a unique data set drawn from Statistics Canada Census microdata files between 1971 and 2006. Based on the employed population, the data are spatially organized and cross‐tabulated over industries and occupational groups. A decomposition methodology is used to compare the relative weights of industry and regional (functional) effects in accounting for the changing spatial division of functions across Canadian urban areas. Clear patterns of increasing functional specialization are found within the Canadian urban system. Regional effects are generally greater than industry effects, suggesting that spatial divisions of functions (spatial shifts within industries) are progressing more rapidly than regional shifts in industrial structure.     

The Influence of Booms and Busts in the U.S. Economy on the Interstate Migration System

Migration flows around the U.S. have shown a great deal of temporal and geographical differentiation over the past few decades. However, the recent downturn in the U.S. economy provides a renewed motivation to explore the relationship between the macro‐economy and interstate migration. To address this issue, in this paper patterns of interstate migration are analyzed using IRS data and several migration efficiency measures for 18 2‐year time periods, 1988–2006. Included in the analysis is an examination of the relationship between system migration and economic change, structural changes in the migration system over time (national and state level), and changes in the geography of state‐level migration efficiency rates. As might be expected, the two full business cycles that occurred over this time period saw significant short‐term changes in migration flows, although the economic downturn of 2001‐02 may indicate more fundamental changes in the migration system.     

Unemployed Job Seeker Attitudes towards Potential Travel‐to‐Work Times

The effectiveness of intra‐regional job search is influenced by how far people are willing to travel to new employment. While much has been written on the commuting patterns of those in work, relatively little research has been carried out on how far unemployed job seekers are prepared to commute. This paper presents and tests a model of factors influencing the maximum time unemployed job seekers would be willing to travel to a potential new job. Significant effects are found for a range of personal and demographic characteristics, including gender, years of education, type of job, and location. The evidence suggests support for the spatial mismatch hypothesis and shows differing accessibility to employment opportunities for certain types of unemployed people. The findings also suggest that models of the trade‐off between leisure and work time should fully include travel‐to‐work time as part of this trade‐off.     

Maquiladora Employment Dynamics in Nuevo Laredo

ABSTRACT The Nuevo Laredo maquiladora sector has grown enormously during the last two decades. The short‐term time series characteristics of this portion of the regional economy are analyzed in an attempt to quantify the trends underlying this remarkable performance. Parameter estimation is accomplished via linear transfer function (LTF) analysis. Data are drawn from the January 1990–December 2000 sample period. Empirical results indicate that real wage rates, maquiladora plants, U.S. industrial activity, and the real exchange rate of the peso play significant roles in determining month‐to‐month fluctuations in maquiladora employment. Furthermore, sub‐sample forecast simulation exercises are conducted as an additional means for verifying model reliability. Empirical results indicate that the forecasts generated with the LTF model are less accurate than those associated with a simple random walk procedure for twelve separate step‐length periods.     

Regional Economic Convergence in Mexico: An Analysis by Industry

ABSTRACT Existing studies of convergence across jurisdictions of a nation have focused on developed economies. A key assumption underlying regional convergence is geographical factor mobility, and in a developed economy, mobility is facilitated by low transportation costs. By the same token, convergence in a less-developed economy may be impeded by the absence of a well-developed transportation infrastructure. We examine the rate and industrial composition of economic convergence in a neighboring less-developed country (LDC), Mexico, to examine how it might have differed from the U.S. experience. We find evidence of stronger convergence in Gross State Product per capita in Mexico relative to existing estimates of U.S. convergence. Further, while manufacturing activity has been found to be a primary source of convergence in the U.S., we find weaker evidence of convergence of manufacturing activity in Mexico. On the other hand, industries such as hotels and transportation were found to be significantly influential in regional convergence in the Mexican economy.     

Moonlighting in a High Growth Economy: Evidence from U.S. State‐Level Data

Despite the prevalence of multiple jobholding, there is relatively little research into its causes. Existing research has tested the predictions of standard labor models with micro data. Yet, there has been virtually no research into the relationship between moonlighting and structural differences in regional labor markets such as wages and employment growth. In this manner, this study examines the large differences in multiple jobholding rates across U.S. states. The findings indicate that multiple jobholding acts as a short‐term shock absorber to cyclical changes. However, in the long‐term, these effects dissipate, indicating that moonlighting plays a similar role as do changes in unemployment and labor‐force participation to regional labor market shocks. Conversely, multiple jobholding rates are inversely related to average weekly earnings. Thus, job growth accompanied by real wage (and productivity) growth may result in a decline in multiple jobholding, further exacerbating potential labor shortages. Other key factors found to influence multiple jobholding include occupational structure and education.     

The U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement and Commodity Transportation Services among U.S. States

The Free Trade Agreement (FTA) implemented beginning in 1989 by the United States aid Canada will have significant impacts on bilateral trading patterns. In addition to its long-term, investment-related repercussions, the FTA will affect the volume, commodity composition, and spatial distribution of trade and, consequently, the transportation services required to move commodities between the two nations. This paper examines the changing spatial structure of U.S.-Canadian trade under the FTA. It employs commodity-specific analyses of tariffs and non-tariff barriers, as well as price and income elasticities of demand, to estimate sectoral and special changes among U.S. states in total, land, water, and airborne commodity flows since 1988 attributable to the FTA. The analysis details the assumptions and methodology used, elaborates upon the likely consequences for me nation's ten largest customs districts, particularly New York, and concludes with some comments on other forces that may alter the expected results.     

U.S. Farm Wages and Labor Market Efficiency

This study examines convergence in real wages for hired farm labor in the U.S. agricultural sector over the period 1978‐92,using the ‘average farm’ in each county as an observation. Convergence is investigated at the aggregate (or the entire U.S. level)and regional levels. Evidence supports convergence with a slower rate at the aggregate level than that at the regional level. Suggested by the evidence is the possibility that absolute benefits of wage equalization across states are ‘contagious’—that one state's successful investment raises productivity and factor payments in neighboring states and that agricultural labor markets are efficient and integrated all over the country.     

American fertility and industrial restructuring: a possible link

Despite the fact that economic and demographic factors conventionally are considered to be integrally related, researchers have overlooked recent changes in the structure of the American economy that may have affected fertility in the US. This article seeks to raise questions and explores the possibility that recent processes of industrial restructuring have created new employment patterns and socioeconomic conditions which have influenced American fertility positively. Specifically, conditions of underemployment and unemployment, generated by the service and manufacturing sectors, may be conducive to increased fertility.