Pure reasoning in 12-month-old infants as probabilistic inference

Many organisms can predict future events from the statistics of past experience, but humans also excel at making predictions by pure reasoning: integrating multiple sources of information, guided by abstract knowledge, to form rational expectations about novel situations, never directly experienced. Here, we show that this reasoning is surprisingly rich, powerful, and coherent even in preverbal infants. When 12-month-old infants view complex displays of multiple moving objects, they form time-varying expectations about future events that are a systematic and rational function of several stimulus variables. Infants' looking times are consistent with a Bayesian ideal observer embodying abstract principles of object motion. The model explains infants' statistical expectations and classic qualitative findings about object cognition in younger babies, not originally viewed as probabilistic inferences.     

Facing strategic narratives: In which we argue interactive effectiveness

The multiple commons is an important context in a world facing the eco-challenge. The platform for land use negotiation is a perspective concerning the good governance of the multiple commons. Platforms are devices or procedures for social learning and negotiation about effective collective action. They create collective decision making capacity at eco-system levels at which critical ecological services need to be managed. Taking platforms seriously as an option for designing a more sustainable society assumes a belief in the human capacity to engage in collective action. Unfortunately, human thinking about humans is dominated by perspectives that emphasize either technical solutions to given human ends, or perspectives that emphasize the selfish nature of human ends. This article focuses especially on the latter: the strategic narratives that have become dominant as society increasingly becomes designed on economic principles. The paper seeks to explain the dominance of strategic narratives and provides social science evidence for alternative perspectives. It concludes with cornerstones for an alternative narrative.     

中国畜牧业环境约束的量化分析——基于土地环境承载力和生态足迹

聚焦高质量发展背景下畜牧业环境约束主题,从土地环境承载力和生态环境承载力两个方面量化分析畜牧业环境约束水平,明确中国畜牧业环境约束的时空分异特征以及养殖、需求规模分别同土地、生态环境的匹配程度。采用养分平衡法和三维生态足迹模型分别测算了畜牧业土地环境承载力和生态环境承载力,并进行时空特征分析。结果显示:2001—2018年,土地环境可载猪当量增长45.21%,土地环境承载力指数下降36.07%,畜牧业土地环境承载状况明显好转;人均畜牧业生态足迹和生态承载力分别提升22.81%和42.96%,生态承载强度呈缓和趋势,但截至2018年,畜牧业生态足迹仍高达承载力的2.46倍,生态赤字为2.08×10~8hm~2;综合两维度来看,中国畜牧业仍面临严峻的生态环境压力,区域间环境约束不平衡现象显著,土地环境约束"南重北轻"、生态环境约束"东重西轻",东南沿海地区土地、生态环境承载压力最重。研究表明,中国畜牧业环境约束严峻,但正在趋向缓和状态,特别是土地环境约束明显好转,但生态环境约束形势依然不容乐观,生态环境约束总体要重于土地环境约束且长期未得到足够重视。     

山西省旱作节水农业的现状与对策

水是生命之源,是经济社会发展不可缺少的重要资源。全面建设小康社会,实现可持续发展,必须以水资源承载能力为前提。水资源短缺已成为全省经济社会发展的根本制约因素,节约用水势在必行,迫在眉睫。发展旱作农业,建立节水型经济社会体系,是山西未来发展的理性选择和战略举措。     

新农村建设中农村公共服务部门人力资源开发研究

在界定农村公共服务部门人力资源相关概念的基础上,分析了我国农村公共服务部门人力资源的总体现状,指出新农村建设中农村公共服务部门人力资源存在的问题,一是构成结构不尽合理;二是人员文化普遍素质偏低,业务能力有待提高;三是人力资源开发环境改善滞后,配套改革不足。而在新农村建设背景下,我国农村公共服务部门人力资源面临的机遇是国家已把加强新农村建设和农村人才建设上升为国家重要发展战略;服务型政府、学习型政府理念的提出;公务员制度的改革。从而提出了我国农村公共服务部门人力资源的发展战略：实行弹性制公共服务部门用人制度改革,形成＂能者上、平者让、不能者下＂的用人机制;大胆提拔业务能力强、政治素养高、有敏锐的判断力和决策能力的中青年基层干部;建设学习型基层公共服务组织,让农村公共服务部门人员学会学习、不断提高;放开视野,建立与国际接轨的人力资源开发体系;在部门发达地区,基层公共服务部门人力资源应当引进企业竞争模式。     

改进Ⅱ号喷油泵调试工艺的试验研究

为了解决原调试工艺没有足够注重各调整因素间的交互作用和选择基准指标再现性差的问题;通过理论分析和试验研究,提出了以起动工况初始零位为基准,以检调起动油量为基准指标的新工艺。并通过调速供油特性实验和实践应用结果,论证了新工艺的合理性和正确性。     

茶氨酸溴香酰胺对人肝癌细胞体内外生长的抑制作用

以L-茶氨酸作对照,评估本实验室合成的新颖的茶氨酸衍生物-茶氨酸溴香酰胺（TBrC）对人肝癌HepG2细胞系体内外生长的抑制作用,并初步探究其作用的分子机制。采用MTT法检测不同浓度的TBrC对HepG2细胞体外生长的影响,应用蛋白质印迹法检测解析HepG2细胞中与癌细胞凋亡和生长密切相关蛋白的表达和药物可能作用的分子靶点。此外,建立动物肿瘤模型,与对照组茶氨酸和临床常用抗癌药物五氟尿嘧啶组相比较,评价TBrC对荷瘤裸鼠人肝癌HepG2肿瘤生长的抑制效果。实验结果显示,TBrC抑制人肝癌细胞体内外生长的活性超过其母体化合物茶氨酸分别为3倍和4倍以上,对小鼠生长无明显毒性。TBrC比茶氨酸更显著地抑制肝癌细胞生长因子受体c-Met和抗凋亡的Bcl-2等蛋白的表达;此外,TBrC大大上调促进凋亡的Bax蛋白的表达。TBrC抑制c-Met信号传导通路,下调Bcl-2/Bax蛋白比率可能是其作用的分子机制之一。这些结果提示,TBrC具有广泛应用于临床治疗和（或）辅助治疗人肝癌和其他癌症的潜力。     

Towards the sustainable intensification of agriculture—a systems approach to policy formulation

The sustainable intensification of agriculture involves providing sufficient food and other ecosystem services without going beyond the limits of the earth’s system. Here a project management approach is suggested to help guide agricultural policy to deliver these objectives. The first step is to agree measurable outcomes, integrating formal policy goals with the often much less formal and much more diverse goals of individual farmers. The second step is to assess current performance. Ideally, this will involve the use of farm-scale metrics that can feed into process models that address social and environmental domains as well as production issues that can be benchmarked and upscaled to landscape and country. Some policy goals can be delivered by supporting ad hoc interventions, while others require the redesign of the farming system. A pipeline of research, knowledge and capacity building is needed to ensure the continuous increase in farm performance. System models can help prioritise policy interventions. Formal optimization of land use is only appropriate if the policy goals are clear, and the constraints understood. In practice, the best approach may depend on the scale of action that is required, and on the amount of resource and infrastructure available to generate, implement and manage policy.     

多拉菌素的研究进展及应用

多拉菌素是新一代大环内酯类抗寄生虫药,具有安全、广谱、高效、长效和奶中残留低等特点,文章从多拉菌素的药物制剂、药代动力学、药物残留检测、毒理学及其对机体免疫力的影响以及在临床兽医中的应用等几个方面进行了阐述,为临床合理用药提供可靠的指导。     

How to grow a mind: statistics, structure, and abstraction

In coming to understand the world-in learning concepts, acquiring language, and grasping causal relations-our minds make inferences that appear to go far beyond the data available. How do we do it? This review describes recent approaches to reverse-engineering human learning and cognitive development and, in parallel, engineering more humanlike machine learning systems. Computational models that perform probabilistic inference over hierarchies of flexibly structured representations can address some of the deepest questions about the nature and origins of human thought: How does abstract knowledge guide learning and reasoning from sparse data? What forms does our knowledge take, across different domains and tasks? And how is that abstract knowledge itself acquired?     

水稻旱害及抗旱育种综述

由于雨量不均,目前全球多数地方正面临着严峻的干旱问题。水稻作为三大作物之一,而且需水量特别大,因此摆在水稻面前的干旱问题尤为突出。简要分析了广西的水稻旱害情况,除了保证水利灌溉,提倡节水农业之外,进行抗旱的水稻育种是一个非常有效的办法。水稻抗旱性的有关机理及其现阶段水稻的抗旱育种工作做了一个简要的论述。     

安徽省淮北麦茬稻水分供需差的气候分析

安徽淮北5～9月多年(1959～1989年)平均降水量为566～640毫米,占全年降水量的74%左右,利于发展麦茬稻生产。但旱涝频繁,6～8月平均降水相对变率虽为全年最小,仍在50%左右,麦茬稻本田期(6～9月)平均需水量为572～628毫米,80%保证率降水量的水分供需差仍为105～180毫米左右,泡田还需水150毫米。泡田和水层灌溉期间稻田渗漏量最少为200毫米,有效雨量系数若以0.5计,常年麦茬稻本田每亩需灌400～500方。从水分供需差分析,淮北东部较适于发展水稻生产。淮北发展水稻生产还必须根据水利和能源条件,科学规划,合理布局,并大力推广节水栽培。     

自然修复中黄绵土生态景观的合理保护与产业化的有效开发

水土流失等自然灾害是黄土高原地区农村经济持续发展的主要制约因素,本文以较为典型的黄绵土为例,分析其形成、性质、保水能力,在此基础上提出黄绵土的合理利用与保护模式。     

基于蒙皮效应钢梁的静力性能研究

采用数值试验的方法分析了基于蒙皮效应的钢梁在静力情况下的力学性能.给出了该新型钢梁的应力分布情况,并与H型钢梁、箱型钢梁的承载能力进行了比较.研究表明,相同跨度、相同质量的新型钢梁具有更高的承载能力,并且随着跨度的增加,合理设计的新型梁的承载力具有更加明显的优势.     

How old is the genetic code? Statistical geometry of tRNA provides an answer

The age of the molecular organization of life as expressed in the genetic code can be estimated from experimental data. Comparative sequence analysis of transfer RNA by the method of statistical geometry in sequence space suggests that about one-third of the present transfer RNA sequence divergence was present at the urkingdom level about the time when archaebacteria separated from eubacteria. It is concluded that the genetic code is not older than, but almost as old as our planet. While this result may not be unexpected, it was not clear until now that interpretable data exist that permit inferences about such early stages of life as the establishment of the genetic code.     

Heritability analyses of IQ scores: science or numerology?

Estimates of IQ heritability are subject to a variety of systematic errors. The IQ scores themselves contain uncontrollable, systematic errors of unknown magnitude. These arise because IQ scores, unlike conventional physical and biological measurements, have a purely instrumental definition. The effects of these errors are apparent in the very large discrepancies among IQ correlations measured by different investigators. Genotype-environment correlations, whose effects can sometimes be minimized, if not wholly eliminated, in experiments with plants and animals, are nearly always important in human populations. The absence of significant effects arising from genotype-environment correlations is a necessary condition for the applicability of conventional heritability analysis to phenotypically plastic traits. When this condition fails, no quantitative inferences about heritability can be drawn from measured phenotypic variances and covariances, except under special conditions that are unlikely to be satisfied by phenotypically plastic traits in human populations. Inadequate understanding of the precise environmental factors relevant to the development of specific behavioral traits is an important source of systematic errors, as is the inability to allow adequately for the effects of assortative mating and gene-gene interaction. Systematic cultural differences and differences in psychological environment among races and among sociocco-nomic groups vitiate any attempt to draw from IQ data meaningful inferences about genetic differences. Estimates based on phenotypic correlations between separated monozygotic twins-usually considered to be the most reliable kind of estimates-are vitiated by systematic errors inherent in IQ tests, by the presence of genotype-environment correlation, and by the lack of detailed understanding of environmental factors relevant to the development of behavioral traits. Other kinds of estimates are beset, in addition, by systematic errors arising from incomplete allowance for the effects of assortative mating and from gene-gene interactions. The only potentially useful data are phenotypic correlations between unrelated foster children reared together, which could, in principle, yield lower limits for e(2). Available data indicate that, for unrelated foster children reared together, the broad heritability (h(2)) may lie between 0.0 and 0.5. This estimate does not apply to populations composed of children reared by their biological parents or by near relatives. For such populations the heritability of IQ remains undefined. The only data that might yield meaningful estimates ot narrow heritability are phenotypic correlations between half-sibs reared in statistically independent environments. No useful data of this kind are available. Intervention studies like Heber's Milwaukee Project afford an alternative and comparatively direct way of studying the plasticity of cognitive and other behavioral traits in human populations. Results obtained so far strongly suggest that the development of cognitive skills is highly sensitive to variations in environmental factors. These conclusions have three obvious implications for the broader issues mentioned at the beginning of this article. 1) Published analyses of IQ data provide no support whatever for Jensen's thesis that inequalities in cognitive performance are due largely to genetic differences. As Lewontin (8) has clearly shown, the value of the broad heritability of IQ is in any case only marginally relevant to this question. I have argued that conventional estimates of the broad heritability of IQ are invalid and that the only data on which potentially valid estimates might be based are consistent with a broad heritability of less than 0.5. On the other hand, intervention studies, if their findings prove to be replicable, would directly establish that, under suitable conditions, the offspring of parents whose cognitive skills are so poorly developed as to exclude them from all but the most menial occupations can achieve what are regarded as distinctly high levels of cognitive performance. Thus, despite the fact that children differ suibstantially in cognitive aptitudes and appetites, and despite the very high probability that these differences have a substantial genetic component, available scientific evidence strongly suggests that environmental factors are responsible for the failure of children not suffering from specific neurological disorders to achieve adequate levels of cognitive performance. 2) Under prevailing social conditions, no valid inferences can be drawn from IQ data concerning systematic genetic differences among races or socioeconomic groups. Research along present lines directed toward this end-whatever its ethical status-is scientifically worthless. 3) Since there are no suitable data for estimating the narrow heritability of IQ, it seems pointless to speculate about the prospects for a hereditary meritocracy based on IQ.     

试论土地储备与城市理性增长

通过资料收集、图表分析等方式从规范土地市场运作、促进土地集约利用、保证土地利用总体规划和城市规划的落实等方面阐述了土地储备对城市理性增长的作用方式,以及城市理性增长的作用内容。通过对土地市场的供给和需求两个方面分析对城市理性增长的作用机理, 并呼吁只有规范土地储备行为,才能推进城市的理性增长。从而得出土地储备将有助于实现城市的理性增长,城市的理性发展又反过来不断地完善了土地储备,它们之间是一种互动的关系。     

Retrieval practice produces more learning than elaborative studying with concept mapping

Educators rely heavily on learning activities that encourage elaborative studying, whereas activities that require students to practice retrieving and reconstructing knowledge are used less frequently. Here, we show that practicing retrieval produces greater gains in meaningful learning than elaborative studying with concept mapping. The advantage of retrieval practice generalized across texts identical to those commonly found in science education. The advantage of retrieval practice was observed with test questions that assessed comprehension and required students to make inferences. The advantage of retrieval practice occurred even when the criterial test involved creating concept maps. Our findings support the theory that retrieval practice enhances learning by retrieval-specific mechanisms rather than by elaborative study processes. Retrieval practice is an effective tool to promote conceptual learning about science.     

就业质量对农民工主观幸福感的影响及其作用机制——基于CHIP2013的实证分析

基于CHIP2013全国调查数据,引入家庭消费能力和风险应对能力两个家庭发展能力的中介变量,探讨就业质量对农民工主观幸福感的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,一方面,就业质量能够显著提升农民工的主观幸福感,具体表现为就业质量每增加1个单位,农民工主观幸福感提升1.1%。另一方面,家庭发展能力在就业质量与农民工主观幸福感之间起到中介作用,中介比例达到47.73%。其中,家庭消费能力的中介比例约为40.56%,高于家庭风险应对能力的中介比例,其对农民工主观幸福感的间接提升作用更为明显。     

I will never eat another strawberry again: the biopolitics of consumer-citizenship in the fight against methyl iodide in California

In March of 2012, following a robust activist campaign, Arysta LifeScience withdrew the soil fumigant methyl iodide from the US market, just a little over a year after it had finally been registered for use in California. As a major part of the campaign against registration of the chemical, over 53,000 people, ostensibly acting as citizens rather than consumers, wrote public comments contesting the use of the chemical for its high toxicity. Although these comments had marginal impact on the outcome of the case, these comments are of interest for what they say about public action at a time when efforts to address food and agricultural issues have been dominated by “voting with your fork.” Based on a qualitative textual analysis of approximately 3500 representative comments made available to us, we show that many of those taking action did not abandon consumer subjectivities associated with neoliberal governmentality. By threatening “personal boycotts,” some were acting in their capacity as individual consumers; in invoking their own and their children’s health many more were also acting on behalf of consumers, despite that the chemical in question is applied before strawberries are planted and thus leaves no residues. The emphasis that letter writers gave to their own bodies reinforces the idea that some bodies count more than others and thus reveals a biopolitical sorting. Having consumer lives matter is consequential in light of evidence that consumer concern about pesticides has historically led to formulations and regulations more protective of consumers than workers and neighbors.