China’s meat and grain imports during 2000-2012 and beyond:A comparative perspective

This paper provides a review on China’s meat trade for the 2000–2012 period and discusses its future development, with reference to China’s grain trade. With marginal decreases in meat exports and slig...     

Key Factors Involved in Lamb Quality from Farm to Fork in Europe

World lamb consumption is approximately 2 kg per capita with large variations between continents, e.g., 17 kg in Oceania vs. 0.7 kg in North America. With less than one million tonnes, the international trade of sheep meat contributes to a small percentage of the total meat exchanged between countries. On the other hand, lamb represents the highest rate of species trading in relation to the total sheep meat produced. It is therefore likely to ifnd a wide variability of different lamb products in the same market, and that the conservation procedures （such as refrigeration, packaging or freezing）, chemical composition, especially the fat due to its implication in human health, lfavour development and juiciness perception （affected, i.e., by the feeding or the age or slaughter weight of the animal） and acceptability （based on culinary background） could be considered important indicators of this advantageous situation. In this paper some studies related to the aforementioned indicators are discussed.     

What is artificial meat and what does it mean for the future of the meat industry?

The meat industry cannot respond to increases in demand by ever increasing resource use. The industry must find solutions to issues regarding animal welfare, health and sustainability and will have to do so in the face of competition from emerging non-traditional meat and protein products in an increasingly complex regulatory environment. These novel meat and protein products, otherwise known as ‘artificial meat' are utilising ground breaking technologies designed to meet the issues facing the conventional meat industry. These artificial meats, in vitro or cultured meat and meat from genetically modified organisms have no real capacity to compete with conventional meat production in the present environment. However, meat replacements manufactured from plant proteins and mycoproteins are currently the biggest competitors and are gaining a small percentage of the market. Manufactured meats may push conventional meat into the premium end of the market, and supply the bulk, cheap end of the market if conventional meat products become more expensive and the palatability and versatility of manufactured meats improve. In time the technology for other artificial meats such as meat from genetic modified organisms or cultured meat may become sufficiently developed for these products to enter the market with no complexity of the competition between meat products. Conventional meat producers can assimilate agroecology ecology concepts in order to develop sustainable animal production systems. The conventional meat industry can also benefit from assimilating biotechnologies such as cloning and genetic modification technologies, using the technology to adapt to the changing environment and respond to the increasing competition from artificial meats. Although it will depend at least partly on the evolution of conventional meat production, the future of artificial meat produced from stem cells appears uncertain at this time.     

The environmental prospects of cultured meat in China

To deal with concerns in China about environmental degradation and a growth in population accompanied by increased consumption of livestock products, a meat alternative is required. This study compared the environmental impacts of producing different protein sources for nutrition, including crops, livestock products, and cultured meat. The results showed that cultured meat has the lowest land use per unit of protein and unit of human digestible energy. China’s crops have the lowest energy use and greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions per unit of energy and protein. The energy use in cultured meat production is slightly higher than that of current pork production in China, whereas GHG emissions are lower. It is concluded that the overall impact of replacing livestock products with cultured meat would be beneficial for China’s environment and would potentially improve food security because less land is needed to produce the same amount of protein and energy.     

The Importance of Hair Goats in Turkey

Of the goat population in Turkey, 98% of the goat population consists of hair goats. They are the prime breeds of goats and they can be bred in the Mediterranean, Aegean and Southeast regions of Turkey. Hair goats are the main income for their breeders. The goats are typically raised in scarce conditions, thus giving rise to greater yield of meat. In spite of the fact that the studies are limited to hair goats bred by the public, in 2005, Republic of Turkey Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock （TAGEM） initiated a countywide reclamation project aiming to identify the regional differences and characteristics of the hair goats. This paper focuses on the yearly quantity of hair goats＇ produce, particularly observing the proportions of goat milk, meat and other animal produce, and to highlight the importance of the hair goats. Recommendations are made from these findings.     

Future perspective of China's feed demand and supply during its fast transition period of food consumption

China has experienced dramatic changes in food consumption patterns over the last three decades. However, there are different opinions regarding the future trends in consumption. By adopting the well-developed partial equilibrium model-China Agricultural Policy Simulation Model(CAPSi M), the demand for livestock products and the main feed crops over 2011–2030 is predicted and analyzed. It is found that China's per capita consumption of livestock products will continue to rise during this period, even though its growth rate will slow down gradually. Meanwhile, the expansion of livestock production will pose great challenges for feed supply in China. More accurately, China will be confronted with feed security rather than grain security in the future.     

Educated consumers don’t believe artificial meat is the solution to the problems with the meat industry

The production of in vitro meat by cell culture has been suggested by some scientists as one solution to address the major challenges facing our society. Firstly, consumers would like the meat industry to reduce potential discomfort of animals on modern farms, or even to avoid killing animals to eat them. Secondly, citizens would like meat producers to reduce potential environmental deterioration by livestock and finally, there is a need to reduce world hunger by increasing protein resources while the global population is predicted to grow rapidly. According to its promoters, artificial meat has a potential to make eating animals unnecessary, to reduce carbon footprint of meat production and to satisfy all the nutritional needs and desires of consumers and citizens. To check these assumptions, a total of 817 educated people(mainly scientists and students) were interviewed worldwide by internet in addition to 865 French educated people. We also interviewed 208 persons(mainly scientists) after an oral presentation regarding artificial meat. Results of the three surveys were similar, but differed between males and females. More than half of the respondents believed that "artificial meat" was feasible and realistic. However, there was no majority to think that artificial meat will be healthy and tasty, except respondents who were in favour of artificial meat. A large majority of the respondents believed that the meat industry is facing important problems related to the protection of the environment, animal welfare or inefficient meat production to feed humanity. However, respondents did not believe that artificial meat will be the solution to solve the mentioned problems with the meat industry, especially respondents who were against artificial meat. The vast majority of consumers wished to continue to eat meat even they would accept to consume less meat in a context of increasing food needs. Only a minority of respondents(from 5 to 11%) would recommend or accept to eat in vitro meat instead of meat produced from farm animals. Despite these limitations, 38 to 47% of the respondents would continue to support research on artificial meat, but a majority of them believed that artificial meat will not be accepted by consumers in the future, except for respondents who were in favour of artificial meat. We speculated that the apparent contradictory answers to this survey expressed the fact that people trust scientists whoare supposed to continuously discover new technologies potentially useful in a long term future for the human beings, but people also expressed concern for their health and were not convinced that artificial meat will be tasty, safe and healthy enough to be accepted by consumers.     

An Empirical Study on the Relationship Between China's Maize Price and Maize Import and Export Trade

Based on the time series of China’s maize trade and domestic maize price,the article analyzes the relationship between domestic maize price and China’s maize international trade by using empirical methods.The results show that there is a connection between domestic maize prices and China's maize international trade,but the link is not very close.Domestic maize price is the cause of China’s maize international trade change,but its impact is very limited;China's maize international trade also can make some difference on the domestic maize price.Based on the results of research,the article brings three suggestion and expectation to adjust China’s maize international trade and the cost control reasonably in order to stabilize domestic maize price and maize yield,and to protect domestic grain security.     

Research on the Development of Economy and Farmers＇ Income Growth in Heilongjiang Province

Nowadays, increasing farmers＇ income is not only related to the development of rural economy, the improvement of farmers＇ lives and countryside stability but also related to the overall situation of economy and social development. Heilongjiang is a big agricultural province, however, the increase of farmers＇ per capital net income is rather slow in the last few years. On the basis of Lewis dual economic structure theory and our province＇s actual situation, the paper proposed the concrete countermeasures to increase farmers＇ income, so as to promote the development of economy.     

Research on the Development of Economy and Farmers’ Income Growth in Heilongjiang Province

Nowadays,increasing farmers’ income is not only related to the development of rural economy,the improvement of farmers’ lives and countryside stability but also related to the overall situation of economy and social development.Heilongjiang is a big agricultural province,however,the increase of farmers’ per capital net income is rather slow in the last few years.On the basis of Lewis dual economic structure theory and our province’s actual situation,the paper proposed the concrete countermeasures to increas...     

2012年大豆市场形势分析与2013年展望

受大豆种植效益较低影响,近年来大豆种植面积和产量连年下降。据国家统计局数据,2012年中国大豆种植面积连续第3年下降,全国大豆播种面积仅为717．7万hm2,较上年减少71．2万hm2。据国家粮油信息中心预计,2012年我国大豆产量为1280万t,同比下滑11．6％,创1993年以来新低。2012年国内大豆价格持续上涨,大豆进口激增,全年进口约5800万t,进口量再创纪录。展望2013年,短期国际、国内大豆价格将以稳为主,后期可能小幅下跌．且后期价格走势主要看南美天气变化。     

2011／12年度全球棉花市场形势分析及展望

2011／12年度全球棉花收获面积增长,产量再次超过2700万t。受经济恢复迟缓等影响,同期棉花消费不足2300万t。国际棉花市场供过于求,期末库存继续增加,库存消费比达到67．4％的历史高点。受全球棉花供求关系和中国棉花临时收储政策等因素影响,国际棉花价格持续下跌,国内棉价相对稳定,国内外价差拉大。全球棉花进出口贸易加大,中国棉花进口激增。展望2012／13年度,预计全球棉花植棉面积产量下降,消费状况有所好转,但仍产大于需,库存持续增加,在基本面不变的情况下,未来国际棉价仍将保持弱势震荡格局。     

WTO与中国棉花10年

回顾了入世10年中国原棉及其棉制品的生产、消费和贸易情况。分析指出,中国原棉加工量占全球市场的40%,原棉进口量占全球贸易的26.9%,原棉对外依存度为24.7%;棉制品及棉制服装出口额占纺织品服装出口总额比例的28.9%～41%。入世10年国产原棉总量6 793.3万t,不仅成功地解决了大国居民的穿衣问题,而且还有约10%的国产棉通过加工成棉纺织品服装予以出口,温暖了全世界。入世10年进口原棉2 232万t,通过加工成棉纺织品服装全部出口,在实现增值230亿美元或141.3亿美元的同时还新增就业岗位,这是棉花产业对人口大国作出的重要社会贡献。植棉业是支撑现代棉纺织业的基础条件。未来发展要努力协调产量、质量和效益的关系,在资源节约和环境友好方面有更大的作为。如何处理好国产棉和进口棉、棉纺织品服装的居民消费与出口关系,仍将是当前和今后需要面对的问题。     

China's alfalfa market and imports: Development,trends, and potential impacts of the U.S.–China trade dispute and retaliations

This study examines the development and trends of China's alfalfa market and imports, identifies key factors for the rapid increase in China's alfalfa imports, and discusses potential impacts of the U.S.–China trade dispute and retaliations on the alfalfa markets and trade in both nations. China's rapid transition toward larger-scale commercial dairy production, with enhanced feed and cost management as well as quality and safety control, and its limited resources for high-quality alfalfa production are key factors for the dramatic increase in its alfalfa imports, from 19 601 metric tons in 2008 to 1.38 million metric tons (mmt) in 2018. While the United States dominated China's alfalfa imports with an average share of 97.01% from 2007 to 2017, the share dropped to 83.76% in 2018 and 63.28% in January 2019 due to the trade dispute and retaliations started in 2018. China will likely remain a large importer of alfalfa because of both its growing demand and the comparative advantages of imported alfalfa in quality and price, but the imports from the United States will be highly affected by the ongoing trade dispute and negotiations. China is also expected to make more efforts to reduce its dependence on U.S. alfalfa through increased investment in domestic alfalfa production and identification of alternative sources of alfalfa and other hay imports.     

2013年1—4月国内外食糖市场分析与展望

由于种植面积增加，预计2012／13榨季国内产糖1300万-1330万t，比2011／12榨季同期增加150万t以上。2013年第1季度国内糖价持续下跌，为保障糖厂和糖农的利益，国家已实行了收储底价为6100元／t的150万t的临时收储，并加大对走私糖的打击力度，由于国际食糖市场供给过剩，本次收储对糖价的支撑作用有限，现货和期货价格均跌至5500元／t以下。国际上，2012／13榨季除印度外其他食糖主产国几乎全部增产，全球食糖将连续第3个榨季供给过剩，国际糖价已处于极低水平，显著的国内外价差促使中国食糖进口量大幅增长。在国内供给过剩、国内外糖价倒挂和国内经济增速放缓的背景下，未来收储对国内糖价的支撑作用将较为有限。     

2014—2023年中国蔬菜市场展望

未来10年,中国蔬菜播种面积将微幅增长,年均增幅约为0.5%;蔬菜产量年均增幅为0.8%,至2023年将达72 991万t。人均蔬菜直接消费量将从2013年的149 kg增加到2023年的166 kg,年均增幅约为1.1%。蔬菜加工业将快速发展,预计至2023年中国蔬菜加工业需求将达17 327万t。     

农业生产结构调整与农民收入的关系研究——以湖北省荆州市为例

以湖北省荆州市为例．对农业生产结构调整与农村居民人均纯收入增长的相关性作计量经济模型分析,以验证农业生产结构调整对农村居民人均纯收入增长的影响．并据此对提高荆州市农民收入提出相关建议。通过模型分析得到结论：在农业内部结构中,农业生产结构累计变动率每增加1％,农村居民人均纯收人增加1．21％。其中．种植业产值的比重和牧业产值的比重增加将导致农村居民人均纯收入减少;而渔业产值的比重增加将导致农村居民人均纯收入增加。在种植业内部结构中．粮食作物播种面积的比重增加会导致农村居民人均纯收入减少：经济作物播种面积的比重增加会引起农村居民人均纯收入的增加。     

2013年中国农产品贸易形势及2014年展望

2013年,中国农产品进口增速较前几年有所回落,但是农产品贸易继续保持增长,农产品贸易总额近1 900亿美元,其中农产品进、出口额分别约为1 200亿美元和700亿美元。就具体产品来看,谷物净进口量在2012年大幅增加的水平上继续增长,大豆、植物油进口高位稳中有涨,棉花、食糖在库存积压的同时继续大量进口,牛羊肉及奶粉等畜产品进口增势强劲。预计2014年中国农产品进口将继续增长,农业产业发展将面临较大进口压力。     

2012年中国农产品贸易形势分析及2013年趋势展望

在世界经济低迷、全球主要农产品供给相对宽松,国内需求不断增长以及政策调控等因素的综合作用下,2012年中国粮棉油糖等大宗农产品进口量激增,全面净进口态势得到强化;果蔬水产等优势农产品出口增长乏力,部分产品甚至出现明显下滑;农产品贸易逆差大幅增加。综合考虑国内外经济走势、农产品供求状况等因素,预计未来粮棉油糖等大宗农产品全面净进口局面将持续,但进口激增态势将得到缓解,农产品出口形势将有所好转。针对新形势、新问题,必须加强对农产品贸易形势的研究和判断,及时采取对策措施,努力确保中国农产品贸易和农业产业平稳健康发展。     

中国谷物贸易演变趋势分析

【目的】 针对中国谷物贸易2000年以来呈现出的新特征,研究谷物贸易演变趋势,对谷物贸易进行展望,为我国调节谷物供需平衡、保障国家粮食安全的相关决策提供科学依据。【方法】 基于联合国贸易数据库(UN COMTRADE)中2000~2017年中国谷物贸易相关的数据,采用显性比较优势指数,研究中国谷物贸易格局的演变,分析谷物相关政策对贸易的影响。【结果】 中国谷物出口已由较强竞争力转为较弱竞争力,且竞争力在不断弱化;中国已经由谷物净出口国变为谷物净进口国;中国谷物进出口市场和进出口产品结构均发生明显变化;谷物支持政策经过一系列调整后有效的促进了谷物市场的正常运行,谷物进口受到农产品进口关税配额的限制,而谷物的出口由国家根据谷物生产情况进行调节。【结论】 我国谷物消费结构出现新特征,谷物的需求出现由“量”到“质”的提升,在资源与环境的约束下,我国谷物产量增加空间有限,进口进一步增加潜力巨大。