Environmental–economic decision-making in lowland irrigated agriculture using multi-criteria analysis techniques

The continuing debate on sustainability has raised wide concerns towards integration of environmental and economic aspects into the development decision-making process. This paper develops a framework for environmental–economic decision making that includes the environmental and economic sustainability criteria, and local people's preferences in the context of a lowland irrigated agriculture system using multi-criteria decision-making techniques. Several criteria, such as land capability/suitability, energy input/output ratio, water demand and environmental costs, are considered as environmental sustainability criteria. Economic sustainability is measured from farmers', governments and societal viewpoints using extended cost-benefit analysis. The Geographic Information System (GIS) technique has been used to evaluate spatial sustainability criteria. The involvement of local people at various levels of the decision- making process is emphasized and their opinions are sought in the decision-making process using a two-stage field survey. The results of the multi-criteria analysis combining both environmental and economic sustainability criteria are discussed, and economic incentives for sustainable intensification of lowland irrigated agriculture are outlined.     

Advances in farming systems analysis and intervention

In this paper, we recognize two key components of farming systems, namely the bio-physical ‘Production System’ of crops, pastures, animals, soil and climate, together with certain physical inputs and outputs, and the ‘Management System’, made up of people, values, goals, knowledge, resources, monitoring opportunities, and decision making. Utilising upon these constructs, we review six types of farming systems analysis and intervention that have evolved over the last 40 years, namely: (1) economic decision analysis based on production functions, (2) dynamic simulation of production processes, (3) economic decision analysis linked to biophysical simulation, (4) decision support systems, (5) expert systems, and (6) simulation-aided discussions about management in an action research paradigm. Biophysical simulation modelling features prominently in this list of approaches and considerable progress has been made in both the scope and predictive power of the modelling tools. We illustrate some more recent advances in increasing model comprehensiveness in simulating farm production systems via reference to our own group's work with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM). Two case studies are discussed, one with broad-scale commercial agriculture in north-eastern Australia and the other with resource poor smallholder farmers in Africa. We conclude by considering future directions for systems analysis efforts directed at farming systems. We see the major challenges and opportunities lying at the interface of ‘hard’, scientific approaches to the analysis of biophysical systems and ‘soft’, approaches to intervention in social management systems.     

Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches

The development of cropping systems simulation capabilities world-wide combined with easy access to powerful computing has resulted in a plethora of agricultural models and consequently, model applications. Nonetheless, the scientific credibility of such applications and their relevance to farming practice is still being questioned. Our objective in this paper is to highlight some of the model applications from which benefits for farmers were or could be obtained via changed agricultural practice or policy. Changed on-farm practice due to the direct contribution of modelling, while keenly sought after, may in some cases be less achievable than a contribution via agricultural policies. This paper is intended to give some guidance for future model applications. It is not a comprehensive review of model applications, nor is it intended to discuss modelling in the context of social science or extension policy. Rather, we take snapshots around the globe to ‘take stock’ and to demonstrate that well-defined financial and environmental benefits can be obtained on-farm from the use of models. We highlight the importance of ‘relevance’ and hence the importance of true partnerships between all stakeholders (farmer, scientists, advisers) for the successful development and adoption of simulation approaches. Specifically, we address some key points that are essential for successful model applications such as: (1) issues to be addressed must be neither trivial nor obvious; (2) a modelling approach must reduce complexity rather than proliferate choices in order to aid the decision-making process; (3) the cropping systems must be sufficiently flexible to allow management interventions based on insights gained from models. The pro and cons of normative approaches (e.g. decision support software that can reach a wide audience quickly but are often poorly contextualized for any individual client) versus model applications within the context of an individual client's situation will also be discussed. We suggest that a tandem approach is necessary whereby the latter is used in the early stages of model application for confidence building amongst client groups. This paper focuses on five specific regions that differ fundamentally in terms of environment and socio-economic structure and hence in their requirements for successful model applications. Specifically, we will give examples from Australia and South America (high climatic variability, large areas, low input, technologically advanced); Africa (high climatic variability, small areas, low input, subsistence agriculture); India (high climatic variability, small areas, medium level inputs, technologically progressing; and Europe (relatively low climatic variability, small areas, high input, technologically advanced). The contrast between Australia and Europe will further demonstrate how successful model applications are strongly influenced by the policy framework within which producers operate. We suggest that this might eventually lead to better adoption of fully integrated systems approaches and result in the development of resilient farming systems that are in tune with current climatic conditions and are adaptable to biophysical and socio-economic variability and change.     

Estimating the impacts of water pricing on smallholder irrigators in North West Province, South Africa

Worldwide growing water scarcity has increased the call for economic instruments to stimulate rational water use in agriculture. Furthermore, cost-recovery is now widely accepted as a cornerstone of sustainable water management. In many developing countries, where agricultural water use is often still subsidised, water pricing policies are developed for allocating water efficiently and achieving sustainability of water systems. However, the impacts of water pricing policies on irrigation water use and on farm production systems is mostly unknown. We introduce an innovative two-stage methodology that allows estimating these effects at farm level. Applying the method to small-scale irrigators in South Africa, we show that water demand is quite responsive even to small changes in water price. In addition, the introduction of a water price significantly decreases farm profit. This appears to be a problem primarily for the poorer farmers.     

Adaptive implementation of information technology for real-time, basin-scale salinity management in the San Joaquin Basin, USA and Hunter River Basin, Australia

Pollutant trading schemes are market-based strategies that can provide cost-effective and flexible environmental compliance in large river basins. The aim of this paper is to contrast two innovative adaptive strategies for salinity management have been developed in the Hunter River Basin, New South Wales, Australia and in the San Joaquin River Basin, California, USA, respectively. In both instances web-based stakeholder information dissemination has been a key to achieving a high level of stakeholder involvement and the formulation of effective decision support tools for salinity management. A common element to implementation of salinity management strategies in both the Hunter River and San Joaquin River basins has been the concept of river assimilative capacity as a guide for controlling export salt loading and the establishment of a framework for trading of the right to discharge salt load to the Hunter River and San Joaquin River respectively. Both rivers provide basin drainage and the means of exporting salt load to the ocean. The paper compares the opportunities and constraints governing salinity management in the two basins as well as the use of monitoring, modeling and information technology to achieve environmental compliance and sustain irrigated agriculture in an equitable, socially and politically acceptable manner. The paper concludes by placing into broader context some of the issues raised by the comparison of the two approaches to basin salinity management.     

Managing the grazing landscape: Insights for agricultural adaptation from a mid-drought photo-elicitation study in the Australian sheep-wheat belt

Globally, and under uncertain climate conditions, the agricultural sector will need to feed more people without degrading the ecosystem services on which production depends. Eastern Australia, coming out of a decade of drought, is at the leading edge of this challenge. Measures to adapt agriculture to increasing climate variability are urgently sought. One particularly promising measure is an adaptive grazing decision-making practice called holistic management (HM), typically involving high-intensity, short-duration rotational grazing and the encouragement of pastures with low chemical input needs. Here, we use photo-elicitation to compare the landscape perceptions of HM graziers with those of more conventional graziers, based on their choice of photo targets and the stories those photographs elicited. During that process, HM graziers described their use of adaptive farm management techniques to gain outcomes for production and ecosystems alike, demonstrating a system-based understanding of their farms conducive to farming under increased climate variability. We conclude that HM grazing should be encouraged so as to adapt the industry to climate change. More widespread uptake of HM practices - for public benefit as well as personal - depends on incentives to reduce start-up costs and expand the instruction of HM principles, first targeting those with high adaptive capacity, and removing policies that delay adaptation.     

The FARMSCAPE approach to decision support: farmers', advisers', researchers' monitoring,simulation, communication and performance evaluation

FARMSCAPE (Farmers', Advisers', Researchers', Monitoring, Simulation, Communication And Performance Evaluation) is a program of participatory research with the farming community of northeast Australia. It initially involved research to explore whether farmers and their advisers could gain benefit from tools such as soil characterisation and sampling, climate forecasts and, in particular, simulation modelling. Its current focus is facilitating the implementation of commercial delivery systems for these same tools in order to meet industry demand for their access. This paper presents the story of what was done over the past decade, it provides performance indicators of impact, it reflects on what was learnt over this period and it outlines where this research is likely to head in the future.Over the past 10 years, the FARMSCAPE team employed a Participatory Action Research approach to explore whether farmers could value simulation as a decision support tool for managing their farming system and if so, could it be delivered cost-effectively. Through farmer group engagement, on-farm trials, soil characterisation, monitoring of crops, soils and climate, and sessions to apply the APSIM systems simulator, FARMSCAPE represented a research program on decision support intervention. Initial scepticism by farmers and commercial consultants about the value of APSIM was addressed by testing its performance both against measured data from on-farm trials and against farmers' experiences with past commercial crops. Once this credibility check was passed, simulation sessions usually evolved into participants interactively inquiring of the model the consequence of alternative management options. These ‘What if’ questions using APSIM were contextualised using local climate and soil data and the farmer's actual or proposed management rules.The active participation of farmers and their advisers, and working in the context of their own farming operations, were the key ingredients in the design, implementation and interpretation of the FARMSCAPE approach to decision support. The attraction of the APSIM systems simulator to farmers contemplating change was that it allowed them to explore their own system in a manner equivalent to learning from experience. To achieve this, APSIM had to be credible and flexible. While direct engagement of farmers initially enabled only a limited number of beneficiaries, this approach generated a commercial market for timely and high quality interactions based on soil monitoring and simulation amongst a significant sector of the farming community. Current efforts are therefore focused on the training, support and accreditation of commercial agronomists in the application of the FARMSCAPE approach and tools.The FARMSCAPE approach to decision support has come to represent an approach to guiding science-based engagement with farm decision making which is being tested nationally and internationally.     

加纳农业机械化发展潜力及制约因素（摘选）

作为政府职能的一部分实现联合国千年计划,即到2015年消除饥饿和极度贫困,为了实现经济可持续增长就需要现代化的农业。就这个问题而言,基于食品安全的必要性,在撒哈拉以南的非洲地区和加纳,发展的重点正逐步转向农业机械化。如果没有行之有效的农业机械化,加纳的食品和农业部门将无法达到预期的经济影响。该文旨在归纳农业机械化的制约因素,提出适合加纳的有效的机械化途径。主要制约机械化的因素包括缺乏熟练的农机操作人员,农场规模小,不适当的政府政策和农机成本高。在认识到机械化对于国家农业发展中的巨大作用后,就需要制定适合的土地所有制政策框架,鼓励联合经营和定制雇佣机械,向农民传授有关投资知识,鼓励标准服务投入。      

苏北灌区农户节水决策的定量分析

灌溉农业在我国有着悠久的历史，我国农业的可持续发展很大程度上依赖于水资源的利用状况。阐述了灌区农户节水行为的影响因素，根据对农户节水行为、农户收支状况等实地调查资料，通过构建农户节水行为决策模型,对农业节水决策等相关方面的问题进行了定量的分析与讨论。研究表明：在农户节水决策过程中，农户受到灌区改革、国家农业政策和自身条件等各种因素的影响，其行为会反映到水资源利用、土地利用变化上，完全可以通过有关数量模型对农户的农业节水行为进行预测。最后，提出了有关政策建议。     

Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems.

In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction.

In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based on simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications — all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction.

We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential.     

水果种植农户循环农业生产意愿与行为影响因素 ——基于栖霞苹果的调查数据

本文基于山东省栖霞市水果种植农户的379份调查数据，采用结构方程模型，实证分析感知收益、感知成本与外部力量对农户循环农业生产意愿与行为影响。结果表明：感知收益与外部力量对农户循环农业生产意愿与行为均有正向影响，且感知收益的效应高于外部力量；感知成本对农户循环农业生产意愿与行为有负向作用；循环农业生产意愿对循环农业生产行为有显著正向作用。因此，开设培训，提高农户循环农业认知，提高感知收益；宣传推广、降低感知成本；增强政策帮扶提供激励补贴，推动政策行稳致远，从而促进水果种植农户的循环农业生产行为。     

基于模糊熵和群决策的智能评估模型

农用地等级评估是一项兼具传统性和创新性的工作,目前的评估测算仍以定性评估和主观测算为主,等、级内涵交叉,界限不够明确。为了解决以上问题,提出了基于模糊熵和群决策的智能评估模型,并将该模型应用于农用地等级评估。通过调研,确定出对评估结果产生直接影响的评估指标,并通过专家对评估指标打分的方式获取专家意见,根据信息熵和模糊处理,计算评估指标权重和参与决策的专家权重,并得出评估结论。通过实际算例证明了模型的可靠性和实用性,提出的农用地评估测算方法,可以节约大量的人力、物力、财力,为实际应用提供便利。     

The role of ‘virtual water’ in efforts to achieve food security and other national goals,with an example from Egypt

The term ‘virtual water’ has been used previously to describe the volume of water embodied in food crops that are traded internationally. This paper describes the economic dimension of the ‘virtual water’ concept as an application of comparative advantage, with particular emphasis on water as the key factor of production. The paper also extends the discussion of ‘virtual water’ by describing a nation’s goals regarding food security within a broader framework that includes other objectives such as providing national security, promoting economic growth, and improving the quality of life for citizens. The analysis suggests that land, labor, and capital must also be considered when evaluating a nation’s production and trade opportunities. In countries where one or more of those resources is limiting, focus on ‘virtual water’ alone will not be sufficient to determine optimal policies for maximizing the social net benefits from limited water resources. In countries where labor is relatively abundant, public policies that promote labor-intensive crop production and processing activities may be desirable. The role of ‘virtual water’ within a broader policy framework is demonstrated using crop production and international trade data from Egypt, where substantial amounts of ‘virtual water’ and ‘virtual land’ are embodied in wheat and maize imports. Policies that promote increased exports of labor-intensive crops will improve rural incomes and enhance food security.     

基于精准农业概念下的农业机械化技术

精准农业已成为一种全新的合理利用农业资源、提高农业作物产量、降低生产成本、改善生态环境的现代农业生产形式。为提高农业生产效率和保护生态环境,介绍精准农业的发展概况,阐述精准农业的技术体系,总结精准农业概念下精准整地技术、精准播种技术、精准施肥技术、精准灌溉技术、精准收获技术、精细设施农业等农业机械化技术内容及特点。     

Realizing the potential benefits of climate prediction to agriculture: issues,approaches, challenges

Advances in our ability to predict climate fluctuations months in advance suggest opportunity to improve management of climatic risk in agriculture, but only if particular conditions are in place. This paper outlines prerequisites to beneficial forecast use; highlights key issues, approaches and challenges related to each; and suggests an evolutionary strategy. The first prerequisite is that forecast information must address a need that is both real and perceived. Second, benefit arises only through viable decision options that are sensitive to forecast information. Third, benefit depends on prediction of the components of climate variability that are relevant to viable decisions. Fourth, appropriate forecast use requires effective communication of relevant information. Finally, sustained use requires institutional commitment and favorable policies. It is useful to consider three phases of effort: an exploratory phase to gain understanding and assess potential, a pilot phase characterized by co-learning between researchers and target decision makers, and an operational phase focusing on engaging and equipping relevant institutions. Although examples of use and potential use, and advances in institutional support, are cause for optimism, use of climate prediction by agriculture s still too new to support strong generalizations about its value.     

武功地区气候变化及其对夏玉米单产的影响

基于陕西武功站1935-2010年的逐月气象数据及夏玉米产量等资料,采用Mann-Kendall法、直线滑动平均模拟法和通径分析法,分析了武功地区1935-2010年各个气象因子的变化特征以及气候变化对夏玉米单产的影响．结果表明:该地区最低气温呈上升趋势,风速、日照时数呈下降趋势;夏玉米生育期最低气温和相对湿度呈上升趋势,最高气温、日照时数和风速均呈下降趋势,变化速率分别为0116 ℃／10a,0006／10a,-0158 ℃／10a,-26707 h／10a和-0063 m／(s·10a),SPI呈减小趋势,气候朝干旱演变;夏玉米生育期各气象因素能综合其他气象因素的信息对单产产生作用,日照时数对夏玉米单产综合决定能力最高,决策系数为2309％,降水量呈减小趋势是夏玉米单产增加的主要限制性气象因素,决策系数为-673％;通过技术创新等人为因素作用,可在一定程度上缓解气候变化给武功地区夏玉米生产带来的负面影响．     

Drainage and Agricultural Development

This paper explores the role of drainage as aninstrument for agricultural and rural development andthe related drainage development forces and processes.Five specific roles of drainage are distinguished:foodproduction, agricultural intensification anddiversification, sustainable irrigated land use, ruraldevelopment and environmental protection. Specialattention is given to the drainage development needsof the developing countries. It is argued that whileat early stages of agricultural development, drainagedevelopment is generally driven by ongoingagricultural development, at later stages ofdevelopment these roles often reverse withagricultural development risking to become stagnatedwhen drainage is not improved. These relationshipsshould be taken into account in the design of drainagedevelopment programs and projects. It is emphasizedthat improved drainage can contribute to establishinga more diversified, competitive and sustainable typeof agriculture, enhance sanitary and public healthconditions and generally contribute to ruraldevelopment, rural well being and poverty alleviation.Drainage development in the developing countries ishowever often severely constrained by the lack of supporting public policies, institutional frameworksand professional cadres. Overcoming these constraintsshould be given high priority on the national andinternational drainage development agendas.     

Assessing rangeland drought in South Africa

The meteorological and agricultural assessment techniques that have been developed in South Africa are discussed, with reference to their strengths and weaknesses, application and suggested future developments. Future challenges in drought assessment as influenced by democratization are also considered. We conclude that meteorological methods have several inherent deficiencies which render them risky for the optimum allocation of drought relief. Agricultural drought assessment is suggested to be more preferable. Current agricultural drought models should nevertheless be improved to deal more successfully with the dynamic nature of rangeland. Evidence indicates that no absolute objective biophysical criteria for the quantification of the onset and the end of a drought have been identified and that all current criteria have an inherent subjectivity. Choosing appropriate interpolation techniques for mapping drought extent is a cause for concern, and there is scope for future research. Remote sensing techniques, integrated with crop modelling techniques, are options to pusue further. We finally suggest that in a democratic South Africa, more attention should be given to a multi-disciplinary approach where impacts, other than meteorological and agricultural, on previously disadvantaged black farmers are also assessed.     

Satisfying future water demands for agriculture

The global demand for water in agriculture will increase over time with increasing population, rising incomes, and changes in dietary preferences. Increasing demands for water by industrial and urban users, and water for the environment will intensify competition. At the same time, water scarcity is increasing in several important agricultural areas.We explore several pathways for ensuring that sufficient food is produced in the future, while also protecting the environment and reducing poverty. We examine four sets of scenarios that vary in their focus on investments in rainfed agriculture and irrigation, and the role of international trade in adjusting for national disparities in water endowments. Rainfed agriculture holds considerable potential but requires adequate mechanisms to reduce inherent risks. Irrigation expansion is warranted in places where water infrastructure is underinvested such as sub-Saharan Africa. In South Asia the scope for improving irrigation performance and water productivity is high. International trade can help alleviate water problems in water-scarce areas, subject to economic and political considerations. We examine also a regionally optimized scenario that combines investments in rainfed and irrigated agriculture with strategic trade decisions. Compared to ‘business as usual’, this scenario reduces the amount of additional water required to meet food demands by 2050 by 80%. Some of that water could be made available for the environment and other sectors. We conclude that there are sufficient land and water resources available to satisfy global food demands during the next 50 years, but only if water is managed more effectively in agriculture.