Integrating agricultural research and policy analysis: analytical framework and policy applications for bio-economic modelling

Interdisciplinary approaches to identify suitable incentives for enhancing sustainable natural resource use require an analytical framework that satisfies both practical purposes of policy support and disciplinary requirements regarding the specification of underlying technical and behavioural relations. Different approaches for agricultural policy analysis are distinguished according to the nature of problems addressed and the analytical procedures applied. Major drawbacks of more disciplinary analysis can be circumvented through functional integration of these approaches. The methodological foundations of an integrated bio-economic modelling framework for the simultaneous appraisal of agro-ecological and socio- economic parameters are presented, and assumptions on farm household decision making regarding crop and technology choice, labour use, market exchange and price responsiveness are discussed. Implications of this integrated approach are analysed against the background of policy discussions on land markets, incentives for innovation, and public investment for agricultural intensification. Policy analysis for sustainable land use proves to be critically dependent on the specification of the linkages between decision-making procedures regarding resource allocation by farm households and their supply response to changes in the economic and institutional environment.     

Water management and crop production for food security in China: A review

Food security is a high priority issue on the Chinese political agenda. China’s food security is challenged by several anthropogenic, sociopolitical and policy factors, including: population growth; urbanization and industrialization; land use changes and water scarcity; income growth and nutritional transition; and turbulence in global energy and food markets. Sustained growth in agricultural productivity and stable relations with global food suppliers are the twin anchors of food security. Shortfalls in domestic food production can take their toll on international food markets. Turbulence in global energy markets can affect food prices and supply costs, affecting food security and poverty. Policy safeguards are needed to shield food supply against such forces. China must make unremitting policy responses to address the loss of its fertile land for true progress towards the goal of national food security, by investing in infrastructure such as irrigation, drainage, storage, transport, and agricultural research and institutional reforms such as tenure security and land market liberalization. The links between water and other development-related sectors such as population, energy, food, and environment, and the interactions among them require reckoning, as they together will determine future food security and poverty reduction in China. Climate change is creating a new level of uncertainty in water governance, requiring accelerated research to avoid water-related stresses.     

Exploratory land use studies and their role in strategic policy making

To support the different phases of a policy making process aimed at changing land use, distinct types of land use studies are required. This paper focuses on exploratory land use studies and their role in the phase of formulating strategic policy objectives. Exploratory land use studies contribute to a transparent discussion on policy objectives by showing ultimate technical possibilities and consequences of imposing different priorities to agro-technical, food security, socio-economic and environmental objectives. A methodology is presented in which science-driven technical information is confronted with value-driven objectives under given values of exogenous variables (e.g. regarding population growth and requirements for agricultural produce). Land use scenarios are generated showing consequences of different priorities for objectives by using natural resources and technical possibilities in different ways. Applications of such an approach are given for the global, regional and farm level, each addressing specific questions and target groups. The paper focuses on the type of results these studies produce and their role in the societal and political debate on strategic land use policy and planning. It is concluded that if exploratory land use studies are carried out in true interaction with target groups, they may well contribute to the debate and learning on sustainable land use options and a purposeful identification of effective policy instruments in a next phase of the policy making process.     

Uncertain water supply in an irrigated Mediterranean area: An analysis of the possible economic impact of climate change on the farm sector

Analysis of the possible economic impact of climate change at the local level is becoming increasingly relevant to agricultural policy, in terms of the definition of new measures to sustain adaptation of the farm sector. This study focuses on a Mediterranean agricultural zone to evaluate the economic impact of rainfall regime changes that modify the accumulation of irrigation water in a dam. The objective is to identify farm typologies that suffer more from rainfall changes, in order to target policy measures that increase farm sector capability to adapt to climate change. First, an analysis of historical series is conducted for precipitation. The decreasing trend in annual precipitation, as well as an increase in monthly rainfall variability, is shown to have a statistically significant influence on the regime of water accumulation in the dam. Density functions representing this regime are estimated for several periods, including the 1960s-1970s, the current time and a time interval that extends to 2015. A comparison of these functions reveals an increase in variability of water accumulation in the dam through time. Parameters of these functions are used in three models of Discrete Stochastic Programming to represent different expectations of irrigation water availability and to simulate the possible reaction of the farm sector in the study area to the different scenarios. The simulation results show that both income and employment are noticeably reduced in some farm typologies when scenarios with higher variability levels for water accumulation in the dam are considered. In addition, changes in the use of soil are seen, the use of inputs declines and the quantity of extracted groundwater increases.     

鄄城县农机化发展的调查与思考

随着我国政府的惠农政策的加大,鄄城县农机事业得到长足发展.但是,目前从事农业生产的人员大部分是妇女儿童,农机合作社程度不高,以家庭为单位的农业生产占较大比重,严重影响了农业的机械化程度.农业生产中所急需的新形农机具还需要加快研发推广应用.随着土地自由流转政策的成熟,鄄城县农业机械化程度将会更普及,农业生产将会发生重大变...     

Bio-economic evaluation of farmers’ perceptions of viable farms in western Kenya

Arable land in western Kenya is under considerable pressure from increasing human population. Rural households depend on farming for at least part of their livelihood, and poverty rates are among the highest in Kenya. Land is often depleted of nutrients, and for most farmers, access to inputs and markets is poor. There is a need to identify options that are manageable within the context of the farmer’s resource base and the household’s objectives that could improve farm household well-being. In this study we integrated qualitative informal participatory approaches with quantitative mathematical programming and biophysical simulation modelling. Households in four sub-locations in Vihiga District were clustered and pilot cases identified. Meetings were held with farmers to elicit their perceptions of what their ideal farm would look like, and how its performance might compare with their own farm’s performance. With farmers’ help, a range of scenarios was analysed, relating to changes in current enterprise mixes, changes in current farm sizes, and changes in prices of staples foods and cash crops. A considerable mismatch was found between farmers’ estimates of their own farm’s performance, and what was actually produced. There seems to be a threshold in farm size of 0.4 ha, below which it is very difficult for households to satisfy their income and food security objectives. Even for larger farms whose households are largely dependent on agriculture, the importance of a cash crop in the system is critical. There is a crucial role for extension services in making farmers aware of the potential impacts on farm revenue of modest changes in their farm management systems. We are monitoring nine households in the district, whose farmers have made some changes to their system in an attempt to increase household income and enhance food security.     

Methods for mapping local food production capacity from agricultural statistics

Interest in local food security has increased in the last decade, stemming from concerns surrounding environmental sustainability, small scale agriculture, and community food security. Promotions for consumption of locally produced foods have come from activists, non-governmental organizations, as well as some academic and government research and policy makers. Methods to empirically assess the types and quantities of crops and animals produced locally (i.e., local food production capacity) are under-developed, hindering the ability of policy makers to effect innovative local food security policy. In this paper, we demonstrate methods to estimate local food production capacity using regularly gathered federal Agricultural Census and survey data for a Canadian province. The methods are generalizable to other provinces and nations. Operating at the sub-provincial scale of Local Health Area (LHA), our goal is to integrate census farmland and survey yield data to construct local food production estimates in each LHA. We also assess the stability of these surveyed agricultural yields over time to determine the temporal extent of data required for reasonable representation of product yields. We find that provincial yield data may be used to construct reasonable estimates of local scale food production, due to the high level of regionalization in productive farmland of each product in the province. However, many products exhibit significant yield variability over time, suggesting that, for some foods, local production capacity is a dynamic and variable concept. The methods developed will be useful for researchers and government officials alike, as well as a first step towards more advanced modeling of current local food capacity and future potential.     

加纳农业机械化发展潜力及制约因素（摘选）

作为政府职能的一部分实现联合国千年计划,即到2015年消除饥饿和极度贫困,为了实现经济可持续增长就需要现代化的农业。就这个问题而言,基于食品安全的必要性,在撒哈拉以南的非洲地区和加纳,发展的重点正逐步转向农业机械化。如果没有行之有效的农业机械化,加纳的食品和农业部门将无法达到预期的经济影响。该文旨在归纳农业机械化的制约因素,提出适合加纳的有效的机械化途径。主要制约机械化的因素包括缺乏熟练的农机操作人员,农场规模小,不适当的政府政策和农机成本高。在认识到机械化对于国家农业发展中的巨大作用后,就需要制定适合的土地所有制政策框架,鼓励联合经营和定制雇佣机械,向农民传授有关投资知识,鼓励标准服务投入。      

FSSIM, a bio-economic farm model for simulating the response of EU farming systems to agricultural and environmental policies

The disciplinary nature of most existing farm models as well as the issue specific orientation of most of the studies in agricultural systems research are main reasons for the limited use and re-use of bio-economic modelling for the ex-ante integrated assessment of policy decisions. The objective of this article is to present a bio-economic farm model that is generic and re-usable for different bio-physical and socio-economic contexts, facilitating the linking of micro and macro analysis or to provide detailed analysis of farming systems in a specific region. Model use is illustrated in this paper with an analysis of the impacts of the CAP reform of 2003 for arable and livestock farms in a context of market liberalization. Results from the application of the model to representative farms in Flevoland (the Netherlands) and Midi-Pyrenees (France) shows that CAP reform 2003 under market liberalization will cause substantial substitution of root crops and durum wheat by vegetables and oilseed crops. Much of the set-aside area will be put into production intensifying the existing farming systems. Abolishment of the milk quota system will cause an increase of the average herd size. The average total gross margin of farm types in Flevoland decreases while the average total gross margin of farms in Midi-Pyrenees increases. The results show that the model can simulate arable and livestock farm types of two regions different from a bio-physical and socio-economic point of view and it can deal with a variety of policy instruments. The examples show that the model can be (re-)used as a basis for future research and as a comprehensive tool for future policy analysis.     

种植类家庭农场的支撑保障体系建设

在广泛的社会调查和家庭农场案例分析的基础上,提出了种植类家庭农场的支撑保障体系建设策略。一是优化家庭农场运行环境,强化家庭农场的条件建设和政策法规支撑;二是完善公共政策支持策略,推进家庭农场的快速发展;三是加强农业社会化服务体系建设,实现规模化、商品化、专业化生产和社会化服务的有机结合;四是加强农业科技服务体系建设,提高家庭农场生产经营的科技含量。      

Reducing poverty in sub-Saharan Africa through investments in water and other priorities

Water resources are essential to human development processes and to achieve the Millennium Development Goals that seek, inter alia, to eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, achieve universal literacy, and ensure environmental sustainability. Expanding irrigation is essential to increase agricultural production, which is needed to achieve economic development and attain food security in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Water resources and irrigated agriculture are not developed to their full potential. Currently less than 4% of renewable water resources in Africa are withdrawn for agriculture. Barriers include the lack of financial and human resources to build irrigation and related rural infrastructure and acquire agricultural technology, and inadequate access to markets. This constrains progress towards poverty reduction. We examine the linkages between agricultural water, education, markets and rural poverty through a review of published studies. We argue that, linking agricultural water, education, and market interventions, which are so often implemented separately, would generate more effective poverty reduction and hunger eradication programs. Investments in agricultural water management and complementary rural infrastructure and related policies are the pathways to break the poverty trap in smallholder African agriculture.     

Integrated participatory modelling of actual farms to support policy making on sustainable intensification

On the tropical island of La Réunion, population growth, increasing demand in food products, agricultural densification, and the resulting pressure on the environment are representative of what is expected to happen in the majority of the world’s regions in the next decades. Crop-livestock integration is a possible solution for the sustainable intensification of farming systems.GAMEDE, a whole-farm model, was designed and used with six representative dairy farmers on the island to ex-ante assess differences in farm sustainability of various degrees of crop-livestock integration and to support discussions with farmers about these options. The model details the dynamics of the main biophysical and decisional processes affecting labour, gross margin, and energy and nutrient flows within the farm.We propose a method based on typology, modelling and participatory techniques to support policy making. All its methodological stages integrate both quantitative and qualitative data. The large majority of farm model implementation cases reported in the literature refers to constructed synthetic farms. However, in our case, actual farm simulation was particularly useful for capturing farmers’ expert knowledge and providing insights into how agro-ecosystems are really managed. This approach enabled taking farm diversity into account in defining relevant interventions. The reliability of extrapolations and recommendations for policy formulation based on farm-level simulation were verified by a rigorous evaluation of the representativeness of the farm sample, crossing expert data with data stemming from a multi-variate analysis. Our research indicates that actual farms can also be typical.     

Research needs and methods for decentralised economic planning

International debates on food and agricultural policy increasingly endorse the principles of the free market and stress the responsibilities of national governments for active policies to manage development, to achieve food security and to safeguard the environment. This paper argues that consequently policy-oriented research needs to establish databases and develop models, in which both rural and urban households figure prominently and in a properly geo-referenced manner. This will enable the policy analyst to design policies and to monitor their effect on a regional basis. The paper emphasises that policy-oriented research should provide a nationwide perspective, because in relation to sustainability, as far as environmental economics is concerned, virtually all theory and theory-based policy guidelines have been formulated for national economies in their totality. With respect to the representation of agricultural production itself, we discuss a class of spatial estimation techniques that can deal with missing data and account for qualitative observations, and that can make full use of spatially explicit information on crop yield potentials as generated by agro-ecological models.     

农机维修业的现状与发展对策建议

大力发展社会化、现代化、规模化的农机维修保障体系,是农机管理部门目前乃至今后一项长期艰巨的工作任务。针对农机维修市场秩序混乱、维修点业务范围与所持资格证书不符等现状,提出完善各种法律法规保障体系、建立完善的农机维修服务网络等建议。     

Sustainability of bean production systems on steep lands in Costa Rica

Responding to changes in rural-urban linkages and government policies, bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) production systems in Costa Rica are undergoing transitions. Impacts of changes in bean production systems on environmental and economic sustainability were analysed at the field, farm and policy levels. A combination of interviews, agronomic surveys, on-farm experiments, and secondary information was used. Changes in agronomic and economic conditions over time were assessed by conducting agronomic surveys and experiments on farms representing a range of land-use intensities. Trade-offs between productivity and stability were quantified using Modified Stability Analysis. The adoption of land and agrochemical-intensive methods by resource-poor farmers cultivating steep lands resulted in decreased environmented and economic sustainability. Farmers with adequate resources were able to maintain economic viability by transferring land out of beans and into other commodities, particularly cattle. However, this shift in resource use decreased social equity by decreasing farm labour opportunities for smallholders and landless farmers and diminishing land available for tenants. These studies indicate that the impact of technology introduction on farming system sustainability can be assessed effectively by conducting integrated socioeconomic and agronomic analyses across farms representing various land-use practices and intensities.     

农机安全作业问题及解决措施

随着农机保有量的增加,农机安全事故上升,安全监管的难度增大。因此,农机部门须带着感情、责任、技能去做好监理工作,加强对机手的安全宣传、法制教育和操作技能培训,同时还应联合相关部门强化监管。     

户营农机与农机经济合作组织的发展

回顾了中国户营农机发展的历程,研究了在户营农机发展中出现的农机专业大户和农机经济合作组织这两种农机服务形式的发展过程、现状及其存在的问题,提出在农村产业结构的逐步调整和农业机械化的快速推进中扶持发展农机专业大户、鼓励和引导户营农机走经济合作之路、促进农业机械共同利用的政制措施.     

粮食安全与农业机械化的逻辑关系及其政策启示——基于三种主要粮食种植成本收益的中美比较

我国2016-2018年稻谷、小麦、玉米种植连续出现亏损.如何增加粮食种植纯收益,提高农民种粮积极性,保障粮食安全?在新冠疫情全球蔓延的特殊时期,粮食安全问题又在我国引起关注.通过比较中美两国三种主要粮食作物种植成本与收益,认为人工成本的攀升是我国粮食种植总成本不断升高的主要原因,提高种植效益的实现路径是通过发展农业机...