Integrating agricultural research and policy analysis: analytical framework and policy applications for bio-economic modelling

Interdisciplinary approaches to identify suitable incentives for enhancing sustainable natural resource use require an analytical framework that satisfies both practical purposes of policy support and disciplinary requirements regarding the specification of underlying technical and behavioural relations. Different approaches for agricultural policy analysis are distinguished according to the nature of problems addressed and the analytical procedures applied. Major drawbacks of more disciplinary analysis can be circumvented through functional integration of these approaches. The methodological foundations of an integrated bio-economic modelling framework for the simultaneous appraisal of agro-ecological and socio- economic parameters are presented, and assumptions on farm household decision making regarding crop and technology choice, labour use, market exchange and price responsiveness are discussed. Implications of this integrated approach are analysed against the background of policy discussions on land markets, incentives for innovation, and public investment for agricultural intensification. Policy analysis for sustainable land use proves to be critically dependent on the specification of the linkages between decision-making procedures regarding resource allocation by farm households and their supply response to changes in the economic and institutional environment.     

Modelling multiple objectives of land use for sustainable development

Sustainability is a human-centred concept that comprises multiple aspects and objectives of different interest groups. Sustainable development is not readily measurable, except as a compromise between different parts of society, of which some may try to represent future generations of mankind. To determine a sustainable development path in the relationship between agriculture and its natural environment, a profound knowledge of this complex system and its behaviour under different socio-economic conditions is necessary. We present a modelling system which consists of a set of hierarchically linked modules. These modules describe production activities in a way that allows an economic and ecological analysis of these techniques. The heart of the modelling system is a multiple goal linear programming model, which is generated by data base modules. Simulation of single farm models as well as regional models based on simultaneously optimised farm types is possible. The modelling system appears to be a highly flexible tool with respect to the number and type of farms, sites and production techniques. Environmental objectives can easily be included and different levels of goal achievement can be simulated. It is well suited for single farm analysis as well as for regional models, for static as well as dynamic approaches. It allows rapid adoption of the model and rapid calculation of scenarios. Therefore, it is suited for use in interactive environments with users which are interested in repeated runs with little changes in the goal function, prices, subsidies or technical coefficients. The results can be used for policy decisions as well as the strategic planning of individual farmers. Applications of the modelling system will be presented in following papers. In this paper the kind of information the model can generate and the circumstances of their usage are shown. ©     

Analysis of nitrate pollution control policies in the irrigated agriculture of Apulia Region (Southern Italy): A bio-economic modelling approach

Nitrate leaching is one of the many forms of environmental pollution resulting from irrigation and intensive agriculture. In this work, a method of combining an agronomic simulation model (EPIC) and a mathematical multi-objective programming model is used to analyse the effects of three agricultural policies on farmer’s revenue and nitrate leaching. An evaluation of the net social costs associated with the different policy measures is also given. The farmer’s behaviour in different policy scenarios was studied in terms of selected crops, irrigation technique and method, and adopted management practices with focus on farm management practices and water application efficiency. Irrigation water pricing, subsidies to adopt improved management levels, and taxation on the use of nitrogen fertilizer were examined. A trade-off emerges between the levels of nitrate leaching and net farmer’s revenue more pronounced for nitrogen tax policies than for water pricing. The results obtained indicate that nitrate leaching can be reduced by about 40% with an associated net social cost of 269 €/ha for the water pricing policy, 183 €/ha for the tax on fertilizer and 95 €/ha for subsidies to high efficiency management.     

Integrated participatory modelling of actual farms to support policy making on sustainable intensification

On the tropical island of La Réunion, population growth, increasing demand in food products, agricultural densification, and the resulting pressure on the environment are representative of what is expected to happen in the majority of the world’s regions in the next decades. Crop-livestock integration is a possible solution for the sustainable intensification of farming systems.GAMEDE, a whole-farm model, was designed and used with six representative dairy farmers on the island to ex-ante assess differences in farm sustainability of various degrees of crop-livestock integration and to support discussions with farmers about these options. The model details the dynamics of the main biophysical and decisional processes affecting labour, gross margin, and energy and nutrient flows within the farm.We propose a method based on typology, modelling and participatory techniques to support policy making. All its methodological stages integrate both quantitative and qualitative data. The large majority of farm model implementation cases reported in the literature refers to constructed synthetic farms. However, in our case, actual farm simulation was particularly useful for capturing farmers’ expert knowledge and providing insights into how agro-ecosystems are really managed. This approach enabled taking farm diversity into account in defining relevant interventions. The reliability of extrapolations and recommendations for policy formulation based on farm-level simulation were verified by a rigorous evaluation of the representativeness of the farm sample, crossing expert data with data stemming from a multi-variate analysis. Our research indicates that actual farms can also be typical.     

Multilevel modelling of land use from field to village level in the Philippines

In land use research regression techniques are a widely used approach to explore datasets and to test hypotheses between land use variables and socio-economic, institutional and environmental variables. Within land use science researchers have argued the importance of scale and levels. Nevertheless, the incorporation of multiple scales and levels and their interactions in one analysis is often lacking. Ignoring the hierarchical data structure originating from scale effects and levels, may lead to erroneous conclusions due to invalid specification of the regression model. The objective of this paper is to apply a multilevel analysis to construct a predictive statistical model for the occurrence of land use. Multilevel modelling is a statistically sound methodology for the analysis of hierarchically structured data with regression models that explicitly takes variability at different levels into account. For a land use study in the Philippines multilevel models are presented for two land use types that incorporate the field, household and village level. The value of multilevel modelling for land use studies and the implications of multilevel modelling for data collection will be discussed. The results show that explanatory variables can account for group level variability, but in most cases a multilevel approach is necessary to construct a sound regression model. Although land use studies often show clear hierarchical structures, it is not always possible to use a multilevel approach due to the structure of most land use datasets and due to data quality. Potentially, multilevel models can address many important land use issues involving scales and levels. Therefore, it is important in land use change research to formulate hypotheses that explicitly take scale and levels into account and then collect the appropriate data to answer these questions with approaches such as multilevel analysis.     

FSSIM, a bio-economic farm model for simulating the response of EU farming systems to agricultural and environmental policies

The disciplinary nature of most existing farm models as well as the issue specific orientation of most of the studies in agricultural systems research are main reasons for the limited use and re-use of bio-economic modelling for the ex-ante integrated assessment of policy decisions. The objective of this article is to present a bio-economic farm model that is generic and re-usable for different bio-physical and socio-economic contexts, facilitating the linking of micro and macro analysis or to provide detailed analysis of farming systems in a specific region. Model use is illustrated in this paper with an analysis of the impacts of the CAP reform of 2003 for arable and livestock farms in a context of market liberalization. Results from the application of the model to representative farms in Flevoland (the Netherlands) and Midi-Pyrenees (France) shows that CAP reform 2003 under market liberalization will cause substantial substitution of root crops and durum wheat by vegetables and oilseed crops. Much of the set-aside area will be put into production intensifying the existing farming systems. Abolishment of the milk quota system will cause an increase of the average herd size. The average total gross margin of farm types in Flevoland decreases while the average total gross margin of farms in Midi-Pyrenees increases. The results show that the model can simulate arable and livestock farm types of two regions different from a bio-physical and socio-economic point of view and it can deal with a variety of policy instruments. The examples show that the model can be (re-)used as a basis for future research and as a comprehensive tool for future policy analysis.     

Sustainable land use and food security in developing countries: DLV's approach to policy support

During the past decades, major changes have taken place with regard to the available policy instruments for food security and rural development. These changes are reviewed against the background of the structural adjustment programmes carried out in the agricultural sector. The linkages between agricultural policy and farmers' supply response are discussed, emphasizing the influence of macro-policy for decision-making at the micro-level of a farm household. An integrated bio-economic modelling framework is presented that allows a better understanding of the effects of macro and sectoral policy interventions for food security and sustainable land use at the farm and (sub)regional level. Critical areas where the understanding of macro–micro linkages is still weak are identified. Major conclusions regarding a suitable analytical framework for policy analysis and support are presented.     

国土资源信息化对土地可持续发展利用的作用

国土资源信息是国民经济信息中不可或缺的、重要的土地信息资源,在国家经济和社会发展中具有重要的公益性、战略性和基础性作用。文章就加强国土资源信息化建设的必要性进行了分析,并提出了具体的发展措施,以促进土地管理科学化进程,提高土地可持续发展利用。     

Assessing the impact of the Nitrate Directive on farming systems using a bio-economic modelling chain

Bio-economic models can be used to assess the impact of policy and environmental measures through economic and environmental indicators. Focusing on agricultural systems, farmers’ decisions in terms of cropping systems and the associated crop management at field scale are essential in such studies. The objective of this paper is to present a study using a bio-economic model to assess the impact of the Nitrate Directive in the Midi-Pyrenees region (France) by analyzing, at the farm scale, farm income and three environmental indicators: nitrate leaching, erosion and water consumption. Two scenarios, the 2003 CAP reform (baseline scenario) and the Nitrate Directive (policy scenario), with a 2013 time horizon, were developed and compared for three representative arable farm types in the Midi-Pyrenees region. Different types of data characterizing the biophysical context in the region (soil, climate), the current cropping systems (rotation, crop management) and farm resources (irrigated land, labor) were collected to calibrate and run the models. Results showed that the implementation of the Nitrate Directive may not affect farm income. However, significant modifications to cropping systems and crop allocation to soil types were simulated. Contrary to expectations, nitrogen leaching at the farm scale did not change. Overall water consumption increased and soil erosion decreased due mainly to a modification in cropping patterns and management by soil type. This study provides an example of unanticipated effects of policy and trade-offs between environmental issues.     

Analysis on groundwater table drawdown by land use and the quest for sustainable water use in the Hebei Plain in China

Increased water use in the Hebei Plain during the last decades has caused serious groundwater level decline and many geological problems which have become the biggest threat to social–economic sustainability. Thus, to determine the factors resulting in the groundwater decline and to develop a practical plan for long-term groundwater use appear to be necessary in this region. In this paper, a water balance model is used in conjunction with regression techniques to estimate the groundwater recharge coefficient and the specific yield (defined as the ratio of the volume of water that a saturated rock or soil will release by gravity drainage to the volume of rock or soil) and the groundwater withdrawn by different water use sectors and the corresponding drop in the water-table are analyzed. The decline in water-table by different crops and water economic benefit of crops are discussed in detail in order to suggest sustainable use of groundwater resources in the Hebei Plain. Finally, sample policy scenarios are developed to show how groundwater in the Hebei Plain could be used in a sustainable manner. In our study, it is found that agriculture is the major consumer of groundwater, with about 85% of the total groundwater withdrawals, and groundwater depletion is mainly caused by agricultural water use. Production of winter wheat exerts a great negative influence on the groundwater system. Winter wheat is the most water consuming crop and result in significant decline of groundwater table. Water economic benefit of winter wheat is lower than that of other crops and withdrawing winter wheat sown area is rational option to make sustainable use of groundwater. With far-sighted and regional planning, the limited water resource can be used sustainably to generate maximum social benefits. This paper will provide information necessary for land-use planning in a severe water shortage region where farmland is mainly irrigated by groundwater.     

Groundwater modelling to assess the effect of interceptor drainage and lining

Recharge to the aquifer through seepage from irrigation canals is often quoted as one of the main causes for waterlogging in Pakistan. In the design of drainage systems to control this waterlogging, rules-of-thumb are often used to quantify the seepage from canals. This paper presents the option to use a groundwater model for a more detailed assessment. Groundwater models may assist in evaluating the effect of recharge reducing measures such as interceptor drains along irrigation canals and lining. These measures are commonly aimed at reducing the drainage requirement of adjacent agricultural lands. In this paper an example is given of the application of a numerical groundwater model, aimed at assessing the effect of interceptor drainage and canal lining in the Fordwah Eastern Sadiqia project, being a typical and well-monitored location in Pakistan. The paper also presents references to other conditions. The model was used to obtain a better insight in the key hydraulic parameters, such as the infiltration resistance of the bed and slopes of irrigation canals, the drain entry resistance of interceptor drains and the hydraulic conductivity of soil layers. The model was applied to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of interceptor drains under various conditions. The results of the study show that the net percentage of intercepted seepage is too low to have a significant effect on the drainage requirement of the adjacent agricultural lands. Besides, the operation of the system, with pumping required, is often an added headache for the institution responsible for operation of the system. The marginal effect of interceptor drains and lining on the drainage requirement of adjacent agricultural land does not always justify the large investments involved. It can be concluded that:

Policy reforms,rice production and sustainable land use in China: A macro–micro analysis

This paper presents a macro–micro analysis of the impact of policy reforms in China on agricultural production, input use and soil quality change for a major rice-producing area, namely Jiangxi province. This is done in three steps. First, a quantitative assessment is made of the impact of market liberalization policies on the economic environment of farm households in Jiangxi province. Econometric analyses based on provincial, national and world market data are used to explain changes in rice and fertilizer prices in Jiangxi province over time. Next, the impact of China’s recent income support policy and latest price trends on farm household choices with respect to activity choice (particularly rice and livestock) and input use (fertilizers, pesticides, manure) is assessed for two villages with different degrees of market access in north-east Jiangxi province. Two village-level general equilibrium models are used to analyse household decision-making and interactions between households within these villages. The parameters are estimated and calibrated from an extensive survey held in these villages in the year 2000. Finally, the impact of land tenure policy on farm management decisions (labour, manure and chemical input use), soil quality (available P and K and total N and C) and rice yields is analysed through an econometric analysis of plot-level data for three villages. Two-stage least squares (2SLS) is used to control for interactions with yields and for feedbacks towards input use. The paper ends with a number of suggestions for policy adjustments that would reduce the problem of natural soil compaction in the research area.     

Developing procedures for the sustainable use of mangrove systems

The concept of integrated water management forms the background to a research project carried out in India and Malaysia. The project involves the development of numerical models to improve understanding of processes in mangrove systems, and related socio-economic investigations to analyse the interests and decision-making of stakeholders in mangroves systems. The paper summarises some of the conclusions arising from the research, including the continuing need for improved technical understanding of mangroves and its incorporation in participatory decision-making.     

Using EM and VERIS technology to assess land suitability for orchard and vineyard development

Orchard and vineyard producers conduct preplant site evaluations to help prevent planting permanent tree and vine crops on lands where the crop will not perform to its highest potential or attain its full life expectancy. Physical soil characteristics within specific soil profiles and spatially throughout an orchard influence decisions on land preparation, irrigation system selection, horticultural choices, and nutrient management. Producers depend on soil surveys to help them understand the soil characteristics of the land and may be interested in technology that provides additional information. Electromagnetic induction (EM38) and four-probe soil resistance sensors (VERIS) are being used in combination with global positioning systems to map spatial variability of soils using apparent soil electrical conductivity (ECa). The hypothesis evaluated in this study is whether rapid, in situ, and relatively low-cost methods of measuring ECa (EM38 and VERIS) can effectively identify and map physical soil variability in non-saline soils. The supposition is that in non-saline soils, ECa levels will relate well to soil texture and water-holding capacity and can be used to map physical soil variability. In turn, the information can be used to guide decisions on preplant tillage, irrigation system design, water and nutritional management, and other horticultural considerations. Two sites in the Sacramento Valley were mapped each with EM38 and VERIS methods. Site-specific management zones were identified by each provider on ECa maps for each site, and then soil samples were collected by University of California researchers to verify these zones. Results showed that on non-saline soils, ECa measured with both EM38 and VERIS correlate with physical soil properties such as gravel, sand, silt, and clay content but the relationship between conductivity and these physical soil properties varied from moderately strong to weak. The strength of the correlation may be affected by several factors including how dominant soil texture is on conductivity relative to other soil properties and on methods of equipment operation, data analysis and interpretation. Overall, the commercial providers of ECa surveys in this study delivered reasonable levels of accuracy that were consistent with results reported in previous studies. At one site, an ECa map developed with VERIS provided more detail on physical soil variability to supplement published soil surveys and aided in the planning and development of a walnut orchard. At a second site, almond yield appeared to correlate well with distinctly different soil zones identified with EM38 mapping.     

Economic instruments for improving water use efficiency: theory and practice

The paper discusses the problem of water scarcity and the need to improve efficiency and sustainability through the use of market-based mechanisms. It outlines the theoretical basis of the argument, discusses difficulties in practical application, and points to the need to develop best-practice guidelines for different circumstances.     

提高土地利用——土地覆盖遥感分类精度方法研究综述

本文总结了国内外提高土地利用-土地覆盖遥感分类精度的若干方法：可提高精度的大气校正方法、多源信息融合方法、人工智能分类方法等。并对其中部分方法进行了优缺点评价。     

提高土地利用——土地覆盖遥感分类精度方法研究综述

本文总结了国内外提高土地利用-土地覆盖遥感分类精度的若干方法:可提高精度的大气校正方法、多源信息融合方法、人工智能分类方法等.并对其中部分方法进行了优缺点评价.     

Spatial distribution of soil hydro-physical properties and morphometric analysis of a rainfed watershed as a tool for sustainable land use planning

In this study, high resolution (5.8 m) multi-spectral satellite data (IRS-P6, LISS IV) along with extensive ground information were used for sustainable land use planning of a rainfed watershed in eastern India (Bahasuni watershed, Dhenkanal, Orissa). Pedo-transfer functions were developed to predict soil water constants using easily measured parameters such as cation exchange capacity, organic carbon, oven-dry bulk density, soil texture, calcium carbonate etc. Different morphometric parameters like drainage density, stream frequency, form factor, circulatory ratio, elongation ratio, bifurcation ratio, relief ratio, relative relief, etc., were analyzed in relation to the development of water resources in the watershed. A circulatory ratio of 0.56 indicated that the shape of the basin was fairly elongated and suggested that the area was not prone to flood. The elongated shape, together with a moderate bifurcation ratio (3.01), indicates moderate flow, moderate runoff and moderate sediment yield. A low drainage density (2.7 km/km²) furthermore implies the presence of permeable strata with high groundwater prospects and supports the assumption of moderate runoff and sediment yield. After studying potentials and prospects of soil hydro-physical properties and morphometric parameters, a suggested land use alternative was implemented in representative, rainfed rice areas of the watershed and was found to be more productive and more profitable.