Effect of Natural Disasters on Local Nonprofit Activity

Disaster damage levels are matched to county‐level nonprofit activity indicators. Using dynamic panel‐data estimation, nonprofit net assets (and nonprofit revenue to a lesser extent) defined at this local level are found to be positively correlated with disaster event damage levels, consistent with a post‐disaster giving mechanism. Magnitudes are relatively small, suggesting a distributed downstream flow of benefits to local nonprofits from larger national organizations. Furthermore, disaster damage at a lag is associated with only minor increases in the count of local nonprofit organizations at the county level. The relative impacts of assets and nonprofit counts in particular indicate that existing nonprofits have the established credibility and networks to be reliable conduits for post‐disaster asset flows. If local nonprofits are an indicator of regional social capital, the findings suggest that disasters reveal the resilience of social capital structures in the face of crisis along the focal dimension of nonprofit activity.     

温州“07818”龙港致灾强龙卷风调查

2007年8月18日夜里超强台风“圣帕”紧靠福建沿岸时,在其移动方向的右前侧约300km的温州市苍南县龙港镇的工农业造成了严重灾害。灾害发生后,当地干部群众迫切要知道是否因龙卷风成灾。为了查明成灾原因和发生机理,温州市气象局及时组织专家组奔赴现场开展灾情调查。通过利用灾害现场调查资料、多普勒雷达观测资料、群众目测、陈述等材料,综合比对龙卷风的特征,结果表明：此次灾害确实是一次台风外围环流中的强龙卷风所致。截至目前,虽然多谱勒雷达对龙卷风的监测能力有较大提高,但是龙卷风雷达反演的效果不理想,器测龙卷风仍存在较大困难。同时,数值模式对龙卷风等微小尺度系统的预测能力仍有待于提高和进一步发展。     

中国西部地区县域城乡统筹发展模式探讨

县域城乡统筹发展是西部地区经济社会发展的必由之路。现阶段,受资源禀赋、人力资源、产业发展、制度环境等要素条件影响,中国东、中、西部县域城乡统筹发展水平有明显差异。自2001年国家实施西部大开发战略以来,特别是“十一五”时期,西部地区县域经济城乡统筹发展已经取得积极成效。西部不少市县在立足当地实际、因地制宜地加快县域城乡统筹发展的过程中,逐步形成各具特色的县域城乡统筹发展模式。对于西部地区县域城乡统筹发展模式的研究,也就在于总结、梳理西部各省县域城乡统筹发展成就、经验和做法,比较不同区域、不同县区县域城乡统筹发展路子或模式,探讨西部地区统筹城乡发展、转变经济发展方式思路和对策。     

Detecting village‐level regional development differences: A GIS and HLM method

To respond to the problems that the previous research mainly targeted the poverty at larger scale and ignored individual effect or contextual effect during exploring poverty contributing factors, we attempt to use spatial cluster analysis and multilevel linear regression model to target the poverty at village level from the perspective of spatial poverty, so as to identify where the poor villages are, and why they are so poor, thereby targeting poverty interventions. Specially, we adopt four types of spatial cluster indices to detect the spatial aggregation distribution of villages, and design HLM model to examine the poverty contributing factors from both village level and county level. The case study from Wuling contiguous destitute area show that: (1) The overall distribution shows a spatial pattern of large scattered but small concentration, scatters‐polar core‐axis‐clump coexisted. (2) Poverty contributing factors at village level from high to low are: per cultivated area, safe drinking water access ratio, terrain type, suffered frequency of natural disasters, road access ratio, and distance from the nearest town’s bazaar. The contribution degree of county‐level factors to the villages’ poverty from high to low are: second gross enrollment ratio, per capita GDP. (3) 45.1% of the difference among the villages’ poverty degrees comes from the development differences among poverty‐stricken villages themselves, and 54.9% from that among counties they belong to. Contributing factors at village level account for 61.4% of the variation of village‐level independent variables, and factors at county level contributed to 65.3% of the variation of county‐level independent variables.     

基于GIS的河南省濮阳县冬小麦干旱灾害风险区划

了研究河南省濮阳县冬小麦干旱灾害风险分布情况,以达到趋利避害,防灾减灾的目的。根据河南省濮阳县1970—2011年的地面气象观测资料,统计出了濮阳县冬小麦干旱灾害的发生次数、发生地点、发生频率,然后将干旱灾害等级进行0-1的标准化,作为干旱灾害的风险系数,最后利用ArcGIS软件中的Kriging插值法进行绘图,确立了濮阳县冬小麦干旱气象灾害风险区划图。结果表明：濮阳县冬小麦气候干旱风险指数较高的地区主要分布濮阳县西北部的五星乡、新习乡、子岸乡,其次是清河头、鲁河、胡状、八公桥、庆祖镇等,东南部的风险指数相对较小如渠村乡、习城乡,梨园乡、白堽乡、王称堌乡等。该区划图对制定各项抗灾减灾措施,提高冬小麦的防灾减灾能力提供了科技指导。     

不同杂交稻品种在绥阳县的适应性研究

为了筛选适宜绥阳县种植的杂交稻新品种,在绥阳县风华镇进行6个杂交水稻品种适应性鉴定试验。结果表明,成优489、C两优华占的小区平均产量极显著高于对照宜香2115,且生育期、株高、结实率等性状综合表现较好,可在绥阳县海拔950m以下适宜区域进行推广种植。     

“Space Obesity”: The Effect of Remoteness on County Obesity

We test if remoteness of a county is one of the environmental factors that contribute to obesity. First, we employ geographically weighted regressions (GWRs) that allow us to observe local or regional patterns. We find that county obesity rate is spatially non‐stationary, remoteness affects county obesity rates, and there are spatial heterogeneities in how distance affects county obesity rates. Next, we refine our estimates of the effect of remoteness on county obesity rate using a random effect model that accounts for county‐level unobserved heterogeneity. Even after accounting for these heterogeneities and state fixed effects, we find measurable impact of remoteness on county obesity rate. Splitting the sample into metro and non‐metro counties, we find that remoteness matters more for the obesity rates in the metro counties.     

不同覆盖物及施肥对早熟马铃薯生长与效益的影响

结合当前生产实际,2012-2013年在贵州省的金沙县安洛乡、玉屏县朱家场镇、荔波县朝阳镇、黄平县浪洞乡,以脱毒马铃薯中薯系列品种为试验材料,对目前贵州省脱毒早熟马铃薯不同覆盖物（黑色农膜、稻草）及肥料（缓释肥料、单质混配肥料）处理进行对比试验,以探索不同栽培模式对马铃薯生长效果的影响.结果表明：覆膜比覆草、施用缓释肥比施用混配肥更能优化马铃薯的农艺性状,有利于其生长,同时提高产量和经济效益.可见,在马铃薯生产中,应该根据生产实际,适宜的运用免耕覆膜栽培和缓控释肥料技术,以实现马铃薯的高产稳产.     

Changing Employment Profiles and Growth: An Economic Base Study of Florida Counties (1982–1987)

Location Quotients are used to estimate economic base multipliers for two-digit Standard Industrial Classification employment data at the county level for the state of Florida. Changes in multipliers are contrasted to changes in county employment profiles and demographic trends for the period 1982 to 1987. Counties are then classified by employment and growth characteristics. A cross-sectional econometric model is constructed to explain regional shifts in total employment. It is demonstrated that although the Florida economy is supported by a low level of employment activity in primary and secondary sectors (relative to the tertiary sector), these sectors tend to be very important in explaining variations in regional economic growth. The empirical findings suggest that the alleged service-oriented economy of Florida is still reliant upon export-oriented activity as the catalyst for employment expansion.     

Pareto-Efficiency and the Provision of Public Goods Within a Rural Setting

The ability of small rural governments to provide local public goods in a Pareto-efficient manner is examined. A test developed by Brueckner (1982) is used to examine the efficiency of a sample of town governments in rural Maine. The empirical results suggest that local property values are maximized, which implies that local public goods are provided in a Pareto-efficient manner.     

Ethnic conflict in Papua New Guinea

Abstract: On many measures of ethno‐linguistic diversity, Papua New Guinea is the most fragmented society in the world. I argue that the macro‐level political effect of this diversity has been to reduce, rather than increase, the impact of ethnic conflict on the state. Outside the Bougainville conflict, and (to a lesser extent) the recent upsurge of violence in the Southern Highlands, ethnic conflicts in Papua New Guinea have not presented a threat to national government. In contrast to most other ethnically diverse societies, the most consequential impacts of ethnic conflict in Papua New Guinea are at the local level. This paper therefore examines the disparate impacts of local‐ and national‐level forms of ethnic conflict in Papua New Guinea.     

山西省汾西县核桃产业调研与对策分析——科技创新对山西核桃产业发展作用的系列调研报告

在深入调查山西省汾西县核桃产业建设的基础上,针对栽培、加工过程中的相关问题,提出了相应的科技创新对策,以期为汾西县核桃产业的发展提供借鉴。     

四川盆地边缘山地与川中丘陵区农村劳动力转移比较研究

四川盆地边缘山地和川中丘陵区是四川省农村劳动力的主要输出地。本研究分别选择沐川县和安岳县作为两区域的样本县,采用与人口规模成比例的分层概率抽样(PPS)方法,按3乡镇/县、3行政村/乡镇、5村民小组以上/行政村的标准抽取调查乡镇、行政村和村民小组,再用间隔法在村民小组内抽取农户(共6乡镇、27村、101村民小组和813户),通过农户问卷和综合分析,从县域和乡镇两个尺度进行两县域农村劳动力转移的比较研究。结果表明：(1)农村劳动力转移仍是川中丘陵区(安岳县)和盆地边缘山地(沐川县)农村劳动力配置的主要方式,但前者农村劳动力转移强度和压力远大于后者。(2)受区位、资源环境、农业结构和非农产业等因素综合作用,在县域尺度上安岳县农村劳动力以省外转移为主,且比以省内转移为主的沐川县转移强度大、女性比重高、转移带来的留守老年/未成年人等社会问题更为突出。(3)资源环境相对一致的安岳县在乡镇尺度上农村劳动力转移主要受社会经济因素影响,乡镇间转移强度、转移劳动力文化程度与女性比例、省外转移比重、就业行业分散程度等均与乡镇对外联系便捷度、经济条件呈正向变动。而资源环境与社会经济分异复杂的沐川县,其乡镇农村劳动力转移受资源环境和社会经济的双重影响,乡镇间转移劳动力的状况与转移强度差异复杂,但乡镇间转移流向和就业领域差异不大,转移带来的社会问题与转移强度呈正向关联。(4)今后应充分认识和重视安岳县所在的川中丘陵区农村劳动力流动及合理配置的难度和问题。同时,要根据自然与社会经济的分异实际,从县域与乡镇两个尺度因地制宜地促进其流动与合理配置：安岳县应将区域流动与就地转化相结合,并着力改善基础设施促进落后乡镇劳动力转移;而沐川县应逐步向就地转化过渡,着力于有条件乡镇就地转化的探索。此外,实施区域产业转型与农村劳动力流动的有效联动是两地的共同选择。     

基于GIS的县域气象灾害与小麦生育期气象灾害趋势分析——以阳谷县为例

为了更好地探究县域内的气象灾害的具体分布特征及其对冬小麦生产的影响,提高农业生产减灾防灾水平。通过运用GIS、统计学和农业气象学等方法,以乡镇为单元,对阳谷县气象灾害风险趋势进行研究,系统分析了阳谷县1981—2011年的风险指标和综合风险指数,明细了不同气象灾害在该县的发生频率和综合风险指数的地域分布规律,计算各乡镇的综合农业气象灾害风险性,并进行相应的灾害趋势分析。趋势分析结果表明：各乡镇干旱发生频率基本一致;洪涝发生频率则由东北向西南逐步增强;高温灾害日数由西南向东北逐渐减弱,低温则反之;冰雹则主要集中在城区中部乡镇;而冬小麦生育期内高庙王的综合气象灾害风险度最高,金斗营、阿城镇的综合气象灾害风险度最低。     

Quality of Life & Modern Living

The pre-engineered town house system incorporates advanced technology, features and standards. The town house system is based upon proven building components, which are proven for on-site construction and which maybe pre-engineered in a controlled environment and delivered to site pre-commissioned. The pre-engineered town house also has the following qualities: short building time,superior quality, low weight, economy of scale, less disruptive on site therefore more sensitive to the environment, safer construction and reduced labour/requirements. The town house is adaptable to a range of possible configurations for construction and considers simple and modular design to cope with incremental expansion. Whilst maintaining the highest international standards, it will also provide the potential of training for quality employment for local communities. The town house is an Intelligent/Smart Home that will possess a computerised building control/management system and it will partner with steel and the telecommunications industries and be up to date with the latest advancements. The town house will be of zero defect quality and therefore be ecologically and environmentally advanced.     

A Study on the Norm of County Planning

In China, the county development is very important in promoting the national economy, coordinating the relationship between the city and rural area and achieving sustainable development of the country. The norm of county planning is a document directing the development of the total county area. Therefore, based on the theory of man-land system, this paper discusses the key in drawing up a county planning, such as regulating the economic structure, arranging the town system and protecting the eco-system. Finally, a draft norm of county planning was put forward.     

Scaling the environmental commons: Broadening our frame of reference for transboundary governance in Southeast Asia

The transboundary environmental commons in Southeast Asia are normally conceived in terms of shared resources and environmental impacts that transcend national borders. The Mekong's ‘fugitive resources’ of water, fish and sediment and the issue of Indonesia's smoke haze drift into Malaysia and Singapore dominate discussion. Assumed national interests shape actors and institutional arrangements for transboundary commons governance. Failure to address the governance challenges is explained in terms of their politico‐cultural failings (e.g. the ‘ASEAN Way’ of non‐interference), the weak regulatory remit of agencies with a specific transboundary governance role (Mekong River Commission), the dominant developmental agenda of subregional cooperative arrangements (Greater Mekong Subregion) or the geopolitical dominance of China (Lancang–Mekong Cooperation). This article builds on these critiques by considering the relationship between the local commons impacted by transboundary projects and the framing of the commons at an inter‐governmental level. It shows that neglect of the local commons and the impacts on them of projects with transboundary effects is partly to be explained by the institutional scaling of the transboundary commons at a country‐to‐country level. It also argues for an expanded notion of transboundary, including investment and governance flows as well as the material environmental footprint of large‐scale investments.     

镇域水平乡村耕地流转的时空分异及其驱动机制

为了解乡村土地流转的镇域差异,丰富对土地流转尺度效应的认知,选取重庆市现代农业与统筹城乡示范窗口江津区为样区,基于2007—2012年24个乡镇的农经统计面板数据,利用统计分析法、主成分分析法与Logistic多元回归分析法,从镇域尺度视角研究乡村耕地流转形式、流转去向和流转规模的时空演变特征,并从区位状况、经济水平、资源禀赋、农业政策和市场5个方面剖析驱动镇域水平耕地流转时空变化的影响因素。结果表明：镇域水平耕地流转形式均以出租和转包为主,呈现多样化;土地流转去向中,农户是耕地最主要流入方,其次是企业,专业合作社最少;镇域水平耕地流转年际差异显著,变化趋势以“先增后减再增型”和“增加型”为主,呈现多元化;镇域水平耕地流转规模属随机分布,空间自相关程度逐年减弱,且空间关联类型格局随年际变化总体表现出不稳定性;镇域水平上,农业劳动力数和养殖业商品化率对耕地流转规模影响最大,流转率随农业劳动力数减少而增加,而随养殖业商品化率提高而增加。此外,固定资产、劳均耕地和农转非率对耕地流转规模也有正向促进作用。最后立足镇域特色,以不同层次发展需求为导向,提出促进土地顺畅流转的施政策略。     

生态家园建设与县域农村经济可持续发展

通过4县(旗、区)的问卷调查和案例分析,提出以农户为建设单元、以沼气为纽带的生态家园建设在达到一定的数量规模时,在县域范围内产生了一定的宏观效益。促进养殖业发展和种植业结构调整,有利于节约资源和改善生态环境,普及和推广农业技术,体现了高新技术对传统农业的改造,提高农民收入,促进农村小康建设。县级地方政府的积极参与和探索实践大大丰富了生态家园建设的内容,也影响了县级领导抓农业农村工作思路。     

Adaptation to climate change and climate variability in European agriculture: The importance of farm level responses

Climatic conditions and hence climate change influence agriculture. Most studies that addressed the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change have focused on potential impacts without considering adaptation. When adaptation strategies are considered, socio-economic conditions and farm management are often ignored, but these strongly influence current farm performance and are likely to also influence adaptation to future changes. This study analysed the adaptation of farmers and regions in the European Union to prevailing climatic conditions, climate change and climate variability in the last decades (1990–2003) in the context of other conditions and changes. We compared (1) responses in crop yields with responses in farmers’ income, (2) responses to spatial climate variability with responses to temporal climate variability, (3) farm level responses with regional level responses and (4) potential climate impacts (based on crop models) with actual climate impacts (based on farm accountancy data). Results indicated that impacts on crop yields cannot directly be translated to impacts on farmers’ income, as farmers adapt by changing crop rotations and inputs. Secondly, the impacts of climatic conditions on spatial variability in crop yields and farmers’ income, with generally lower yields in warmer climates, is different from the impacts of temporal variability in climate, for which more heterogeneous patterns are observed across regions in Europe. Thirdly, actual impacts of climate change and variability are largely dependent on farm characteristics (e.g. intensity, size, land use), which influence management and adaptation. To accurately understand impacts and adaptation, assessments should consider responses at different levels of organization. As different farm types adapt differently, a larger diversity in farm types reduces impacts of climate variability at regional level, but certain farm types may still be vulnerable. Lastly, we observed that management and adaptation can largely reduce the potential impacts of climate change and climate variability on crop yields and farmers’ income. We conclude that for reliable projections of the impacts of climate change on agriculture, adaptation should not be seen anymore as a last step in a vulnerability assessment, but as integrated part of the models used to simulate crop yields, farmers’ income and other indicators related to agricultural performance.