Underestimated and severe: Small mammal decline from the forests of south-eastern Australia since European settlement, as revealed by a top-order predator

In Australia, numerous small mammal species have suffered extinction or severe declines in distribution and abundance following European settlement. The extent of these declines from forested areas of south-eastern Australia, however, remains poorly understood. In this paper we use sub-fossil deposits of the sooty owl (Tyto tenebricosa tenebricosa) as a tool for understanding the diversity of the small mammal palaeocommunity. These results are compared to the contemporary sooty owl diet from the same geographical region to investigate the degree of small mammal decline following European settlement.Of 28 mammal species detected in sub-fossil deposits and considered prey items of the sooty owl at the time of European settlement, only 10 species were detected in the contemporary sooty owl diet. Numerous small mammal species have not only recently suffered severe declines in distribution and abundance but have also recently undergone niche contraction, as they occupied a greater diversity of regions and habitats at the time of European settlement. For some species our understanding of their true ecological niche and ecological potential is therefore limited. The species that underwent the greatest declines occupied open habitat types or were terrestrial. The severity of decline is also likely to have resulted in severe disruption of ecosystem functions, with wide scale ecosystem consequences. There is an urgent need to improve small mammal conservation, to maintain crucial ecosystem functions performed by small mammals. It is recommended that broad-scale exotic predator control programs are conducted which may also provide suitable conditions for the re-introduction of locally extinct species.     

Predation determines the outcome of 10 reintroduction attempts in arid South Australia

Ten reintroduction attempts were conducted in and around the Arid Recovery Reserve in northern South Australia between 1998 and 2008. Five locally-extinct mammal species and one reptile species were reintroduced into a fenced Reserve where cats, foxes and rabbits were excluded. Reintroductions of the nationally threatened greater stick-nest rat, burrowing bettong, greater bilby and western barred bandicoot were all considered successful based on short and medium-term success criteria. These criteria included continued survival after 8 years, increased distribution across the large Reserve and, most importantly, recovery after a drought event. The trial reintroductions of the numbat and woma python into the Reserve were unsuccessful due to predation by native avian and reptilian predators respectively. Outside the Reserve, where cats and foxes were present but controlled through poison baiting, reintroduction attempts of the greater bilby and burrowing bettong were unsuccessful. High mortality was attributed to cat and fox predation with dingoes also contributing to post-release mortality in bettongs. However, a reintroduction of burrowing bettongs into a fenced area with low rabbit and cat abundance has, to-date, met short-term and medium-term success criteria. Results suggest that the absence or severe restriction of exotic mammalian predators was the critical factor responsible for the success of the mammal reintroductions. Determining thresholds of predator activity below which successful reintroduction of threatened species can occur, are needed to improve the science of reintroduction biology in Australia.     

The role of forest structure, fragment size and corridors in maintaining small mammal abundance and diversity in an Atlantic forest landscape

Using the abundance and distribution of small mammals at 26 sites in an Atlantic forest landscape, we investigated how species abundance and alpha and beta diversity are affected by fragment size and the presence of corridors. To account for the variability in forest structure among fragments, we described and minimized the influence of foliage density and stratification on small mammal data. Sites were distributed among three categories of fragment size and in continuous forest. For small and medium-sized categories, we considered isolated fragments and fragments connected by corridors to larger remnants. Small mammal abundance and alpha and beta diversity were regressed against site scores from the first axis of a Principal Component Analysis on forest structure variables. Residuals were used in analyses of variance to compare fragment size and connectivity categories. Forest structure influenced total abundance and abundance of some species individually, but not the diversity of small mammal communities. Total abundance and alpha diversity were lower in small and medium-sized fragments than in large fragments and continuous forest, and in isolated compared to connected fragments. Three species were less common, but none was more abundant in smaller fragments. At least one species was more abundant in connected compared to isolated fragments. Beta diversity showed an opposite relationship to fragment size and corridors, increasing in small and isolated fragments. Results highlight the importance of secondary forest for the conservation of tropical fauna, the hyper-dynamism of small isolated fragments and the potential of corridors to buffer habitat fragmentation effects in tropical landscapes.     

The importance of fine-scale savanna heterogeneity for reptiles and small mammals

Tropical savannas are an important reservoir of global biodiversity. Australia’s extensive savannas, although still largely intact, are experiencing substantial declines in terrestrial biodiversity due to a variety of interrelated effects of altered fire regimes, grazing and increases in invasive species. These disturbance processes are spatially variable, combine to increase landscape to local-scale landscape heterogeneity, but rarely result in well-defined patch boundaries. We quantified the importance of this heterogeneity for native reptile and small mammal species in a tropical savanna landscape of Queensland, Australia. We used high resolution remote sensing imagery (IKONOS) to map habitat pattern at a 4 m spatial resolution and at variable extents. We found that landscapes dominated by grass or bare ground had low reptile and small mammal diversity, while landscapes with a heterogeneous mix of grass, bare ground and trees had high species diversity and relative abundance of most species. Landscape heterogeneity may increase reptile and small mammal species richness by: (i) increasing the variety and abundance of foraging resources such as seeds and invertebrates; (ii) providing cover from predators and high summer temperatures; and (iii) increasing functional connectivity and dispersal success. The importance of these resources and processes varies among individual species and at different spatial scales, reiterating the need to consider habitat requirements of multiple species in landscape management and conservation planning.     

The abundance of a threatened arboreal marsupial in relation to anthropogenic disturbances at local and landscape scales in Mediterranean-type forests in south-western Australia

This study investigated associations between the relative abundance of the threatened ngwayir (western ringtail possum, Pseudocheirus occidentalis) and anthropogenic disturbances at local and landscape scales within the publicly-managed jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) forests of south-western Australia. Logging, fire, fox (Vulpes vulpes) control and forest fragmentation were investigated in relation to the relative abundance of ngwayir at 90 sites within an area of 285,000 ha east of Manjimup; the location of the last remaining substantial population of ngwayir in jarrah forest. Overall, ngwayir abundance was greatest in areas with limited anthropogenic disturbance. At the local-scale, ngwayir abundance was negatively associated with greater fire intensity. At the landscape-scale, it was positively associated with fox control and negatively associated with forest fragmentation and distance from non-remnant vegetation (i.e., agriculture and tree plantations). Abundance was also greatest in predominantly unlogged landscapes and in forests that had been regrowing for an average of 40 years since the landscape was most recently logged, in other words, where logging was historically least intense. Interactions between fox control efforts and forest fragmentation were also important. This study emphasises the importance of conducting research at appropriate spatial scales and to account for the synergistic effects of the causes of decline. An adaptive management approach to the mitigation of the agents of decline is recommended.Indirect evidence indicates that high value habitat for ngwayir has in all likelihood been selectively cleared for agriculture, owing to its fertile and productive nature. Habitat loss is, therefore, also likely to be a major cause of the modern decline of the species. While many jarrah forest areas that support remaining high abundances of the ngwayir have been incorporated into reserves, conservation of ngwayir habitat and populations outside reserves also will be essential for the recovery and long-term viability of the species.     

Phase-dependent effect of conservation efforts in cyclically fluctuating populations of arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus)

Predator populations with demographic cycles driven by multi-annual cycles of their key prey resource can be expected to be “cyclic phase sensitive” to management actions. We explored this by means of modelling in the case of the highly endangered Fennoscandian arctic fox population which is driven by 4-year population cycles in small rodent prey. By using a model in which the management action improved arctic fox vital rate through increased resource availability, we show that arctic fox population growth was most improved when management action was applied in the increase and decrease phase of the cycle. Except in the low phase of the cycle, the growth rate was more affected when the management action worked through improved reproduction than improved survival. There was a synergistic effect to be gained by performing management action during multiple phases during a demographic cycle. Thus we recommend that arctic fox conservation programs ought to be continuous in time, but with the highest intensities of management action in the phases of the cycle in which the target population is most prone to respond.     

Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia: an example of the co-existence of significant marine mammal populations and large-scale coastal development

Recent analyses assert that large marine vertebrates such as marine mammals are now ‘functionally or entirely extinct in most coastal ecosystems’. Moreton Bay is a large diverse marine ecosystem bordering the fastest growing area in Australia. The human population is over 1.6 million and increasing yearly by between 10% and 13% with resultant impacts upon the adjoining marine environment. Nonetheless, significant populations of three species of marine mammals are resident within Moreton Bay and a further 14 species are seasonal or occasional visitors. This paper reviews the current and historical distributions and abundance of these species in the context of the current management regime and suggests initiatives to increase the resilience of marine mammal populations to the changes wrought by the burgeoning human population in coastal environments.     

Do domestic cats impose an unsustainable harvest on urban bird populations?

We assessed the impact of domestic cats on population persistence of native and exotic urban bird populations using a model adjusted for habitat-specific catch rates, cat ownership and hunting activity data. GPS-derived home ranges of 32 cats and resource selection indices demonstrated the degree of penetration and preference for native vegetation fragments. Owners reported on prey brought back by 144 domestic cats in Dunedin, New Zealand, during 12 months. One third of cats never brought back prey, and 21% returned more than one item/month. Cats brought back a mean of 13.4 prey items/year (median = 4), with cats aged <1 year returning more prey than older cats. Birds were the most common prey, followed by rodents. Although cats penetrated adjacent vegetation fragments they did not catch more birds and preferred garden habitat, suggesting that predation pressure may be reduced in fragments. Cat home range size appears to be constrained by cat density while the number of birds caught depends on the density of available prey. Estimates of city-wide catch for six bird species were either more than total urban population size estimates or close to lower confidence intervals. Modelling of three species indicated low likelihood of population persistence with cat predation. The observed persistence of these prey species suggests a meta-population structure with urban populations acting as sinks with source populations located on the city fringe.     

Empty forests: Large carnivore and prey abundance in Namdapha National Park, north-east India

Illegal hunting poses a dual threat to large carnivores through direct removal of individuals and by prey depletion. We conducted a camera-trapping survey in the Namdapha National Park, north-east India, conducted as part of a programme to evaluate carnivore and prey species abundance. Clouded leopard (Neofelis nebulosa) was the only large carnivore detected by camera-trapping. Indirect evidences indicated the presence of the wild dog (Cuon alpinus) and leopard (Panthera pardus), however, there was no evidence of tigers (Panthera tigris), suggesting their possible extinction from the lower elevation forests. Of the major ungulate prey species, sambar (Cervus unicolor) and wild pig (Sus scrofa) were the only large prey detected, while the Indian muntjac (Muntiacus muntjak) was the only small prey species detected. Relative abundances of all species were appreciably lower than estimates from other tropical forests in south-east Asia. We suspect that illegal hunting may be the cause for the low carnivore and prey species abundance. An ongoing community-based conservation programme presents an opportunity to reduce local people’s dependence on hunting by addressing their socio-economic needs and for using their skills and knowledge of the landscape for wildlife conservation. However, long-term wildlife monitoring is essential to assess the efficacy of the socio-economic interventions in bringing about wildlife recovery.     

Evaluating simultaneous impacts of three anthropogenic effects on a floodplain-dwelling marsupial Antechinus flavipes

Regulation of river flows has altered floodplain ecosystems around the world. Floods are less frequent, which leads to reduction of favourable environmental conditions for many terrestrial and aquatic organisms adapted to natural flooding regimes. In Australia, the Murray River floodplains have been subjected to decline in inundations, to extensive logging and to removal of fallen timber. The yellow-footed antechinus (Antechinus flavipes) is the only small, native, ground-dwelling/semi-arboreal mammal on most floodplains of south-eastern Australia, yet the effects of floods on its population dynamics largely are unknown. Here, we found positive effects of proximity to flooding, higher woodloads and of abundance of large, hollow-bearing trees on antechinus numbers. Mean trapping rates of antechinuses were lowest in 2003 following a 3-year period with no inundation, higher in 2004 following the first breeding season during a small, controlled flood in 2003, and higher again in 2005, following a small, controlled flood in 2004. In 2004 and 2005, trapping rates declined with distance from floodwaters. This study provides evidence for the benefits of using management flows to inundate floodplains, conserving large trees and ensuring high woodloads in floodplains for sustaining populations of the yellow-footed antechinus.     

Differences in the reproductive success and survival of the rufous treecreeper (Climacteris rufa) between a fragmented and unfragmented landscape

The rufous treecreeper (Climacteris rufa) has declined in abundance in the agricultural regions of southwestern Australia. The patterns of decline are well documented, but the processes that threaten population persistence are poorly understood. I compared the reproductive success and survival of the treecreeper between three sites in an unfragmented landscape and four remnant categories (large, small, grazed and ungrazed) in a fragmented, agricultural landscape. Nest success and annual productivity were significantly higher in the unfragmented landscape, but varied between sites and remnant categories within landscapes. Nest success was lowest in grazed remnants and annual productivity was positively associated with territory size in the fragmented landscape. Fledgling survival rates did not differ between landscapes, but there was a trend for juvenile survival rates to be higher in the unfragmented landscape. I used artificial nests to compare relative predation rates between landscapes, and provisioning rates and prey biomass brought to nestlings to assess differences in food availability. There were no landscape differences in predation rates, but provisioning rates to nestlings and total prey biomass were significantly lower in the fragmented landscape. Mean habitat quality was also lower in the fragmented landscape, although it differed between remnant categories. Reduced reproductive success, juvenile survival, food availability and habitat quality may threaten the viability of the rufous treecreeper population living in the fragmented landscape. Limiting the modification of remaining habitat (e.g. removing stock grazing) and improving habitat quality are required to assist in the conservation of this species.     

Are edge bird populations doomed to extinction? A retrospective analysis of the common guillemot collapse in Iberia

In the first half of the XXth century, the common guillemot (Uria aalge) was the seabird with the largest breeding population in Atlantic Iberia (ca. 20,000 individuals), the low-latitude limit of the species breeding range. However, this population suffered a dramatic decline and is quasi-extinct at present. The decline was believed to be associated with reduced availability of pelagic prey fish due to climate change. In this study, we analyzed the population change of Iberian guillemots in the second half of the XXth century by means of a retrospective analysis. Our study showed that between 1960 and 1974 the guillemots in Iberia suffered a dramatic population crash (33.3% annual decline) and that subsequently, the population continued to decline at a slower annual rate (13.4%). Simulation models indicated that the factors driving the population crash should be related to adult survival, rather than reproduction. The analysis of environmental and fishery data suggested good climate conditions and higher or sustained availability of pelagic prey fish when the Iberian guillemots crashed. In contrast, relevant human-related factors were affecting adult mortality in that period, specially a rapid and large increase in the number of synthetic fishing nets. During the collapse, no conservation measures were undertaken to mitigate anthropogenic threats and it was assumed, in some extent, that this low-latitude edge population was somehow prone to extinction as a consequence of climate change. This study highlights that to carelessly attribute the decline of rear edge populations to climate change could be highly misleading if the population is suffering from other, particularly human, threats.     

Priority areas for the conservation of Atlantic forest large mammals

Large mammal faunas in tropical forest landscapes are widely affected by habitat fragmentation and hunting, yet the environmental determinants of their patterns of abundance remain poorly understood at large spatial scales. We analysed population abundance and biomass of 31 species of medium to large-bodied mammal species at 38 Atlantic forest sites (including three islands, 26 forest fragments and six continuous forest sites) as related to forest type, level of hunting pressure and forest fragment size using ANCOVAs. We also derived a novel measure of mammal conservation importance for each site based on a “Mammalian Conservation Priority index” (MP_i) which incorporates information on species richness, population abundance, body size distribution, conservation status, and forest patch area. Mammal abundance was affected by hunting pressure, whereas mammalian biomass of which was largely driven by ungulates, was significantly influenced by both forest type and hunting pressure. The MP_i index, when separated into its two main components (i.e. site forest area and species-based conservation index C_i), ordered sites along a gradient of management priorities that balances species-focused and habitat-focused conservation actions. Areas with the highest conservation priority were located in semi-deciduous forest fragments, followed by lowland forests. Many of these fragments, which are often embedded within large private landholdings including biofuel and citrus or coffee crops, cattle ranches and pulpwood plantations, could be used not only to comply with environmental legislation, but also enhance the prospects for biodiversity conservation, and reduce edge effects and hunting.     

Predator-prey relationships and responses of ungulates and their predators to the establishment of protected areas: A case study of tigers, leopards and their prey in Bardia National Park, Nepal

Interactions among sympatric large predators and their prey and how they respond to conservation measures are poorly known. This study examines predictions concerning the effects of establishing a protected area in Nepal on tigers (Panthera tigris), leopards (Panthera pardus), and their ungulate prey. Within a part of the park, after 22 years the total density of wild ungulates had increased fourfold, to ca. 200 animals/km², almost exclusively due to a remarkable increase in chital deer (Axis axis). Tiger density also increased markedly to nearly 20 animals/100 km², whereas leopard density did not and was ca. 5 animals/100 km². The prediction that grazers should increase more than browsers was only partially supported. The prediction of positive density dependence in prey selection was not supported. Instead, the most abundant species (chital and hog deer, Axis porcinus) were killed less frequently than expected, whereas the lower-density wild boar (Sus scrofa) was preferred. Predictions that (i) initially rare species suffer highest predation was partially supported, that (ii) predation is highest among the most abundant prey was not supported, and that (iii) predation is highest among the most preferred prey independently of their densities was supported. Clearly, the conservation efforts adopted in Bardia were successful, as both tigers and their natural prey base increased. However, the positive numerical response of tigers limited and depressed the abundance of some prey species. Thus, conservation activities aimed at restoring large predators are likely to change in the composition of the overall mammal community, potentially eliminating rare but preferred prey species.     

Large mammal population declines in Africa’s protected areas

Protected areas (PAs) are the cornerstone of global conservation efforts but their performance in maintaining populations of their key species remains poorly documented. Here, we address this gap using a new database of 583 population abundance time series for 69 species of large mammals in 78 African PAs. Population abundance time series were aggregated to form a multi-species index of overall change in population abundance. The index reveals on average a 59% decline in population abundance between 1970 and 2005. Indices for different parts of Africa demonstrate large regional differences, with southern African PAs typically maintaining their populations and western African PAs suffering the most severe declines. These results indicate that African PAs have generally failed to mitigate human-induced threats to African large mammal populations, but they also show some successes. Further development of our index could help to measure future progress towards post-2010 targets for reducing biodiversity loss.     

Reintroduction and establishment of the western barred bandicoot Perameles bougainville (Marsupialia: Peramelidae) at Shark Bay, Western Australia

The western barred bandicoot was reintroduced to the Australian mainland in 1995 after an absence of at least 60 years. The new population was derived from 14 animals, reintroduced to Heirisson Prong from Dorre Island in Shark Bay, Western Australia. Introduced predators (the European red fox and the feral cat) were controlled at the reintroduction site, but European rabbits were not. A large fenced area of natural vegetation within the reintroduction site was used as a secure refuge from mammalian predators. Bandicoots were released from this predator refuge to the 12 km² conservation site. Dispersal from the point of free release was minimal. The reintroduced population has persisted for 4 years and increased, with at least 175 bandicoots recruited to the population in this time. The recapture rate of marked bandicoots was low, suggesting that adult mortality was high. Reproductive output at Heirisson Prong appeared greater than that of the two surviving wild populations on Bernier and Dorre Islands. Litter size was similar, but there was an extended annual breeding season at the reintroduction site. Body condition of reintroduced and wild bandicoots were similar, although there was some indication that reintroduced males may have been in poorer condition than their island counterparts. The litter size of bandicoots increased with a decrease in rabbit abundance, however, bandicoots were able to reproduce, maintain condition, and sustain recruitment to allow the population to increase despite the presence of rabbits. Two fox incursions occurred during the 4-year period of establishment, and feral cats were present on occasion in low numbers. Feral cats may be responsible for a lower rate of population increase than that observed on predator-free Dorre Island. Ongoing predator control is essential for any mainland reintroduction of bandicoots.     

Environmental monitoring using populations of birds and small mammals: Analyses of sampling effort

Characteristics of bird and small mammal communities can be valuable in monitoring for impacts on specific plots of land. In Utah (USA), significant differences were found among years, habitats and seasons in bird and small mammal abundance, species diversity, and species richness; thus, estimates of these characteristics are consistent and repeatable and can be used for detecting change. Also, bird and small mammal communities are dependent on a wide variety of food resources and habitat characteristics; thus they should reflect a variety of impacts.A comparison is made between two methods of handling bird data from transects: enumeration (individual birds per km) and density (birds per unit area). Correlation between the two was high (r = 0·93). However, density estimates may be necessary to trace an impact to a particular group, guild or species and possibly to its cause.An analysis is made of how much sampling is necessary to make an adequate estimate of the characteristics of bird and small mammal communities. Estimates of bird abundance, species richness and species diversity (from enumeration) may be obtained with three repetitions of 2 km of transect. Three repetitions are also sufficient to estimate abundance of small mammals on 12 by 12 trapping grids. To estimate species richness and species diversity, however, four or more repetitions are needed. Small mammal community characteristics are not well predicted by trapping on transects or small grids except in grids 9 by 9 or larger. These results of sampling effort may only apply to certain habitats but data from bird and small mammal communities should be useful in environmental monitoring at any site.     

Ecology and use of arctic fox Alopex lagopus dens in Norway: tradition overtaken by interspecific competition?

Arctic fox Alopex lagopus dens in Norway are mostly large and well-defined structures of great age. Examinations of these dens have been used in surveys of the breeding and population status of the arctic fox in Fennoscandia. In this study, dens all over north Norway and in some parts of south Norway were surveyed (n=214), and several aspects of den characteristics, localisation and use were recorded. Red fox Vulpes vulpes dens were also recorded whenever found, including red fox use of arctic fox dens (total n=211). Most of the arctic fox dens were of the “classic” type dug out in sandy soil (n=210). The average number (±1 SD) of open entrances (at least half open) was 27.4±19.0, and the average size was 363.1±288.7 m². Regional variation was found in both these measurements, as well as in two variables classifying the vegetation at the den. However, no consistent south-north gradient was found, although the most southern and the most northern regions were extremes in several respects. A positive correlation was found between den size and the number of entrances, as well as between these two variables and the two vegetation variables. For each arctic fox den, height above the tree line, distance to the tree line, distance between arctic fox dens, distance to the nearest red fox den, distance to a main road and distance to other human activity were estimated. Regional variation was found in all these variables, but no consistent south-north gradient. Again, the most southern region deviated most. There were large differences in the proportion of dens used by arctic foxes between the nine regions, with one region outstanding in its production of arctic fox litters and paucity of red foxes. The proportion sum of arctic fox entrances to sum of red fox entrances reliably, but not perfectly, identified the best arctic fox regions. Arctic fox dens that were known to have produced litters at least once during 1980-2001 had about twice as many entrances as dens without pups, were 32% larger and had a more lush vegetation. They were also situated further from a red fox den. Distance to red fox dens and height above the tree line were the most important factors regarding arctic fox use of dens. Thus, the red fox was identified as a threat to the arctic fox population.     

Swift fox reintroductions on the Blackfeet Indian Reservation, Montana, USA

Swift foxes (Vulpes velox) were once common prairie inhabitants throughout western North America and were integral components within ecosystems and some Native American tribal cultures. In response to extirpation from tribal lands, the Blackfeet Tribe and Defenders of Wildlife reintroduced 123 captive-raised swift foxes from 1998 to 2002 to the Blackfeet Indian Reservation, Montana, USA. We used two success criteria, a population growth rate ?1.0 and an index count ?100 foxes, to determine if the reintroduction was a short-term success.We radiocollared and monitored swift foxes from 2003 to 2005 to estimate survival and fecundity. The swift fox population grew at a rate of 16% during 2003/2004 and 14% in 2004/2005. In addition, field crews observed 93 foxes in the summer of 2005.The swift fox population reached one, and very nearly both, of our short-term success criteria. In light of swift fox sign in areas where we were unable to observe foxes despite being aware of their presence, we believe there were ?100 foxes present in 2005. Based on our success criteria and the discovery of swift foxes 110 km from the release site, we consider this reintroduction a short-term success with promise for long-term success. The Blackfeet Tribe and Defenders of Wildlife have attained their goal of restoring a culturally important species to Tribal lands and have initiated a comeback of swift foxes beyond the Reservation border to the Rocky Mountain Front in Montana. Collaborative projects between tribes and non-governmental groups can play a vital role in our effort to conserve biologically and culturally significant species.     

Estimating the rate of quasi-extinction of the Australian grey nurse shark (Carcharias taurus) population using deterministic age- and stage-classified models

Grey nurse sharks off the east coast of Australia are listed nationally as “critically endangered” under Schedule 1 of the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act (1999) and may number no more than 300 in New South Wales and southern Queensland waters. They are an inshore, coastal dwelling species and were severely depleted by spearfishing in the 1960s. The population has continued to decline despite protection since 1984. Their life history (long-lived to 25+ years), late maturation (6-8 years), low fecundity (maximum 2 live young biennially), specific habitat requirements, limited inshore distribution, and small population size render them particularly vulnerable to extinction. We estimated the time to quasi-extinction (years elapsed for the population to consist of ?50 females) for the grey nurse shark population off the east coast of Australia based on current estimates of abundance and known anthropogenic rates of mortality. Estimated minimum population size was 300 as of 2002, and minimum anthropogenic mortality assessed from recovered carcasses was 12/year of which 75% were females. We modelled time to quasi-extinction using deterministic age- and stage-classified models for worst-, likely and best-case scenarios. Population size was estimated at 300 (worst), 1000 (likely) and 3000 (best). Anthropogenic mortality was added to the model assuming either all carcasses are being recovered (best), or conservatively, that only 50% are reported (realistic). Depending on model structure, if all carcasses are being reported, quasi-extinction times for worst-, likely and best-case scenarios range from 13 to 16 years, 84-98 years and 289-324 years, respectively. If under-reporting is occurring, time to quasi-extinction ranges from 6 to 8 years, 45-53 years and 173-200 years, respectively. In all scenarios modelled the grey nurse shark population will decline if no further steps are taken to remove anthropogenic sources of mortality. Because estimates of quasi-extinction rate depend on initial population size, and sensitivity analysis revealed that population rate of change was most sensitive to changes in the survival probability of the smallest length classes, obtaining precise estimates of abundance and annual survival of young females is critical.