Confirmation of spatial patterns and temperature effects in Bluetongue virus serotype-8 transmission in NW-Europe from the 2007 reported case data

Two separate analyses were carried out to understand the epidemiology of Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) in 2007 in North West Europe: First, the temporal change in transmission rates was compared to the evolution of temperature during that season. Second, we evaluated the spatio-temporal dynamics of newly reported outbreaks, to estimate a spatial transmission kernel. For both analyses, the approach as used before in analysing the 2006 BTV-8 epidemic had to be adapted in order to take into account the fact that the 2007 epidemic was not a newly arising epidemic, but one advancing from whereto it had already spread in 2006. We found that within the area already affected by the 2006 outbreak, the pattern of newly infected farms in 2007 cannot be explained by between-farm transmission, but rather by local re-emergence of the virus throughout that region. This indicates that persistence through winter was ubiquitous for BTV-8. Just like in 2006, we also found that the temperature at which the infection starts to spread lies close to 15 °C. Finally, we found that the shape of the transmission kernel is in line with the one from the 2006 epidemic. In conclusion, despite the substantial differences between 2006 and 2007 in temperature patterns (2006 featured a heat wave in July, whereas 2007 was more regular) and spatial epidemic extent, both the minimum temperature required for transmission and the transmission kernel were similar to those estimated for the 2006 outbreak, indicating that they are robust properties, suitable for extrapolation to other years and similar regions.     

Susceptibility of in vitro produced hatched bovine blastocysts to infection with bluetongue virus serotype 8

ABSTRACT: Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8), which caused an epidemic in ruminants in central Western Europe in 2006 and 2007, seems to differ from other bluetongue serotypes in that it can spread transplacentally and has been associated with an increased incidence of abortion and other reproductive problems. For these reasons, and also because BTV-8 is threatening to spread to other parts of the world, there is a need for more information on the consequences of infection during pregnancy. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether hatched (i.e. zona pellucida-free) in vitro produced bovine blastocysts at 8-9 days post insemination are susceptible to BTV-8 and whether such infection induces cell death as indicated by apoptosis. Exposure of hatched in vitro produced bovine blastocysts for 1 h to a medium containing 103.8 or 104.9 TCID50 of the virus resulted in active viral replication in between 25 and 100% of the cells at 72 h post exposure. The infected blastocysts also showed growth arrest as evidenced by lower total cell numbers and a significant level of cellular apoptosis. We conclude from this in vitro study that some of the reproductive problems that are reported when cattle herds are infected with BTV-8 may be attributed to direct infection of blastocysts and other early-stage embryos in utero.     

Possible routes of introduction of bluetongue virus serotype 8 into the epicentre of the 2006 epidemic in north-western Europe

In August 2006, bluetongue (BT) was notified in The Netherlands on several animal holdings. This was the onset of a rapidly spreading BT-epidemic in north-western Europe (latitude >51 degrees N) that affected cattle and sheep holdings in The Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, France and Luxembourg. The outbreaks were caused by bluetongue virus (BTV) serotype 8, which had not been identified in the European Union before. Bluetongue virus can be introduced into a free area by movement of infected ruminants, infected midges or by infected semen and embryos. In this study, information on animal movements or transfer of ruminant germ plasms (semen and embryos) into the Area of First Infection (AFI), which occurred before and during the onset of the epidemic, were investigated in order to establish the conditions for the introduction of this virus. All inbound transfers of domestic or wild ruminants, non-susceptible mammal species and ruminant germ plasms into the AFI during the high-risk period (HRP), registered by the Trade Control and Expert System (TRACES) of the EC, were obtained. Imports originating from countries with a known or suspected history of BTV-incidence of any serotype were identified. The list of countries with a reported history of BTV incidence was obtained from the OIE Handistatus II for the period from 1996 until 2004. No ruminants were imported from a Member State (MS) with a known history of BTV-8 or from any other country with a known or suspected history of BTV incidence of any serotype. Of all non-susceptible mammal species only 233 horses were transported directly into the AFI during the HRP. No importations of semen or embryos into the AFI were registered in TRACES during the period of interest. An obvious source for the introduction of BTV-8, such as import of infected ruminants, could not be identified and the exact origin and route of the introduction of BTV-8 thus far remains unknown. However, the absence of legal import of ruminants from outside the EU into the AFI and the absence of BTV-8 in southern Europe suggest that, the introduction of the BTV-8 infection into the north-western part of Europe took place via another route. Specifically, in relation to this, the potential for Culicoides to be imported along with or independently of the import of animals, plants or other 'materials', and the effectiveness of measures to reduce such a possibility, merit further study.     

Modeling spatial and temporal transmission of foot-and-mouth disease in France: identification of high-risk areas

Foot-and-mouth disease is one of the most contagious diseases of animal livestock. We used statistical tools to explore the dynamics of epidemics and to evaluate the consequences of virus reintroduction in France. We developed a stochastic farm-based model adapted to the French farm structure from previous modeling works following the 2001 epidemic in the United Kingdom. This model depends upon the distance between the 280,000 French farms and on species type (e.g. cows and sheep) and it tracks each animal's farm status at any given day. Since data were only available at the town scale, the farm location and the number of animals in each farm were simulated over the surface area of each French town, as well as the number of mixed farms. Based on 200 simulations of the model, our results allowed for the study of local disease transmission, since it begins simulations once limitation of movement is put into place. On average, the same 50 randomly chosen initially infected farms would lead to 1,110 infected farms (610; 1,590) when two control strategies (culling within 0.5 km from an infected farm and vaccination within 3 km) are put into place. Regions with high densities of cows and sheep (e.g. Pays-de-la-Loire) are high-risk zones, confirming that the epidemic process depends upon the location and the type of initially infected farms (size, species type). The results of this model highlight the importance of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to obtain more precise data concerning herds.     

Mortality attributable to bluetongue virus serotype 8 infection in Dutch dairy cows

In 2007, bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) re-emerged in the Netherlands and a large number of farmers notified morbidity and mortality associated with BTV-8 to the authorities. All dead cows in the Netherlands are registered in one of the three age classes: newborn calves <3 days, calves 3 days to 1 year, and cows >1 year. These registrations result in a complete data set of dead cattle per herd per day from 2003 until 2007. In this study, the mortality associated with BTV-8 for the Dutch dairy industry was estimated, based on this census data. Default, mortality associated with BTV-8 was estimated for the confirmed notification herds. Moreover, an additional analysis was performed to determine if mortality associated with BTV-8 infection occurred in non-notification herds located in BTV-8 infected compartments. A multivariable population-averaged model with a log link function was used for analyses. Separate analyses were conducted for the three different age groups. Confirmed notification herds had an increased cow mortality rate ratio (MRR) (1.4 (95% CI: 1.2-1.6)); calf MRR (1.3 (95% CI: 1.1-1.4)); and newborn calf MRR (1.2 (95% CI: 1.1-1.3)). Furthermore, in non-notification herds in BTV-8 infected compartments, mortality significantly increased 1.1 times (95% CI: 1.1-1.1) in cows, 1.2 times (95% CI: 1.2-1.2) in calves and 1.1 times (1.1-1.1) in newborn calves compared with BTV-8 non-infected months. Using objective census data over a 5-year period, the MRRs indicated increased mortality associated with BTV-8 infection not only in herds of which the farmer notified clinical signs but also in non-notification herds in infected compartments.     

Description of an epidemic simulation model for use in evaluating strategies to control an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease

OBJECTIVE: To develop a spatial epidemic model to simulate intraherd and interherd transmission of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus. SAMPLE POPULATION: 2,238 herds, representing beef, dairy, swine, goats, and sheep, and 5 sale yards located in Fresno, Kings, and Tulare counties of California. PROCEDURE: Using Monte-Carlo simulations, a spatial stochastic epidemic simulation model was developed to identify new herds that would acquire FMD following random selection of an index herd and to assess progression of an epidemic after implementation of mandatory control strategies. RESULTS: The model included species-specific transition periods for FMD infection, locations of herds, rates of direct and indirect contacts among herds, and probability distributions derived from expert opinions on probabilities of transmission by direct and indirect contact, as well as reduction in contact following implementation of restrictions on movements in designated infected areas and surveillance zones. Models of supplemental control programs included slaughter of all animals within a specified distance of infected herds, slaughter of only high-risk animals identified by use of a model simulation, and vaccination of all animals within a 5- to 50-km radius of infected herds. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The FMD model represents a tool for use in planning biosecurity and emergency-response programs and in comparing potential benefits of various strategies for control and eradication of FMD appropriate for specific populations.     

Transmission of classical swine fever virus within herds during the 1997-1998 epidemic in The Netherlands

In this paper, we describe the transmission of Classical Swine Fever virus (CSF virus) within herds during the 1997–1998 epidemic in the Netherlands. In seven herds where the infection started among individually housed breeding stock, all breeding pigs had been tested for antibodies to CSF virus shortly before depopulation. Based upon these data, the transmission of CSF virus between pigs was described as exponential growth in time with a parameter r, that was estimated at 0.108 (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.060–0.156). The accompanying per-generation transmission (expressed as the basic reproduction ratio, R₀) was estimated at 2.9. Based upon this characterisation, a calculation method was derived with which serological findings at depopulation can be used to calculate the period in which the virus was with a certain probability introduced into that breeding stock. This model was used to estimate the period when the virus had been introduced into 34 herds where the infection started in the breeding section. Of these herds, only a single contact with a herd previously infected had been traced. However, in contrast with the seven previously mentioned herds, only a sample of the breeding pigs had been tested before depopulation (as was the common procedure during the epidemic). The observed number of days between the single contact with an infected herd and the day of sampling of these 34 herds fitted well in the model. Thus, we concluded that the model and transmission parameter was in agreement with the transmission between breeding pigs in these herds.

Because of the limited sample size and because it was usually unknown in which specific pen the infection started, we were unable to estimate transmission parameters for weaned piglets and finishing pigs from the data collected during the epidemic. However, from the results of controlled experiments in which R₀ was estimated as 81 between weaned piglets and 14 between heavy finishing pigs (Laevens et al., 1998a. Vet. Quart. 20, 41–45; Laevens et al., 1999. Ph.D. Thesis), we constructed a simple model to describe the transmission of CSF virus in compartments (rooms) housing finishing pigs and weaned piglets. From the number of pens per compartment, the number of pigs per pen, the numbers of pigs tested for antibodies to CSF virus and the distribution of the seropositive pigs in the compartment, this model gives again a period in which the virus most probably entered the herd. Using the findings in 41 herds where the infection started in the section of the finishers or weaned piglets of the age of 8 weeks or older, and of which only a single contact with a herd previously infected was known, there was no reason to reject the model. Thus, we concluded that the transmission between weaned piglets and finishing pigs during the epidemic was not significantly different from the transmission observed in the experiments.     

Transplacental transmission of field and rescued strains of BTV-2 and BTV-8 in experimentally infected sheep

Transplacental transmission of bluetongue virus has been shown previously for the North European strain of serotype 8 (BTV-8) and for tissue culture or chicken egg-adapted vaccine strains but not for field strains of other serotypes. In this study, pregnant ewes (6 per group) were inoculated with either field or rescued strains of BTV-2 and BTV-8 in order to determine the ability of these viruses to cross the placental barrier. The field BTV-2 and BTV-8 strains was passaged once in Culicoides KC cells and once in mammalian cells. All virus inoculated sheep became infected and seroconverted against the different BTV strains used in this study. BTV RNA was detectable in the blood of all but two ewes for over 28 days but infectious virus could only be detected in the blood for a much shorter period. Interestingly, transplacental transmission of BTV-2 (both field and rescued strains) was demonstrated at high efficiency (6 out of 13 lambs born to BTV-2 infected ewes) while only 1 lamb of 12 born to BTV-8 infected ewes showed evidence of in utero infection. In addition, evidence for horizontal transmission of BTV-2 between ewes was observed. As expected, the parental BTV-2 and BTV-8 viruses and the viruses rescued by reverse genetics showed very similar properties to each other. This study showed, for the first time, that transplacental transmission of BTV-2, which had been minimally passaged in cell culture, can occur; hence such transmission might be more frequent than previously thought.     

Vesicular stomatitis virus replicon expressing the VP2 outer capsid protein of bluetongue virus serotype 8 induces complete protection of sheep against challenge infection

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an arthropod-borne pathogen that causes an often fatal, hemorrhagic disease in ruminants. Different BTV serotypes occur throughout many temperate and tropical regions of the world. In 2006, BTV serotype 8 (BTV-8) emerged in Central and Northern Europe for the first time. Although this outbreak was eventually controlled using inactivated virus vaccines, the epidemic caused significant economic losses not only from the disease in livestock but also from trade restrictions. To date, BTV vaccines that allow simple serological discrimination of infected and vaccinated animals (DIVA) have not been approved for use in livestock. In this study, we generated recombinant RNA replicon particles based on single-cycle vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) vectors. Immunization of sheep with infectious VSV replicon particles expressing the outer capsid VP2 protein of BTV-8 resulted in induction of BTV-8 serotype-specific neutralizing antibodies. After challenge with a virulent BTV-8 strain, the vaccinated animals neither developed signs of disease nor showed viremia. In contrast, immunization of sheep with recombinant VP5 - the second outer capsid protein of BTV - did not confer protection. Discrimination of infected from vaccinated animals was readily achieved using an ELISA for detection of antibodies against the VP7 antigen. These data indicate that VSV replicon particles potentially represent a safe and efficacious vaccine platform with which to control future outbreaks by BTV-8 or other serotypes, especially in previously non-endemic regions where discrimination between vaccinated and infected animals is crucial.     

Transplacental and oral transmission of wild-type bluetongue virus serotype 8 in cattle after experimental infection

Potential vertical transmission of wild-type bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) in cattle was explored in this experiment. We demonstrated transplacental transmission of wild-type BTV-8 in one calf and oral infection with BTV-8 in another calf. Following the experimental BTV-8 infection of seven out of fifteen multi-parous cows eight months in gestation, each newborn calf was tested prior to colostrum intake for transplacental transmission of BTV by RRT-PCR. If transplacental transmission was not established the calves were fed colostrum from infected dams or colostrum from non-infected dams spiked with BTV-8 containing blood. One calf from an infected dam was born RRT-PCR positive and BTV-specific antibody (Abs) negative, BTV was isolated from its blood. It was born with clinical signs resembling bluetongue and lived for two days. Its post-mortem tissue suspensions were RRT-PCR positive. Of the seven calves fed colostrum from infected dams, none became infected. Of the six calves fed colostrum from non-infected dams spiked with infected blood, one calf became PCR-positive at day 8 post-partum (dpp), seroconverted 27 days later, and remained RRT-PCR and Abs positive for the duration of the experiment (i.e., 70 dpp). This work demonstrates that transplacental transmission in late gestation and oral infection of the neonate with wild-type BTV-8 is possible in cattle under experimental conditions.     

Quantification of the transmission of classical swine fever virus between herds during the 1997-1998 epidemic in The Netherlands

In this study, we describe a method to quantify the transmission of Classical Swine Fever Virus (CSFV) between herds from data collected during the 1997–1998 epidemic in the Netherlands. From the contacts between infected herds and the serological findings shortly before depopulation, we estimated the week of virus introduction and the length of the period over which the herd emitted virus for each CSFV-infected herd. From these data, we estimated the infection-rate parameter β (the average number of herds infected by one infectious herd during one week) and the herd reproduction ratio, R_h (the average total number of secondary outbreaks caused by one infectious herd, i.e. in its entire infectious period), using a SIR-model for different sets of CSF control measures. When R_h > 1, an epidemic continues to grow. On the other hand, when R_h < 1 an epidemic will fade out.

During the phase before the first outbreak was diagnosed and no specific measures had been implemented, β was estimated at 1.09 and R_h at 6.8. In the subsequent phase infected herds were depopulated, movement restrictions were implemented, infected herds were traced forward and backward and the herds in the protection and surveillance zones were clinically inspected by the veterinary authorities (regional screening). This set of measures significantly reduced β to 0.38. However, R_h was 1.3 and thus still >1. Consequently, the number of outbreaks continued to grow. After a number of additional measures were implemented, the value of R_h was reduced to 0.5 and the epidemic came to an end. These measures included pre-emptive slaughter of herds that had been in contact with infected herds or were located near an infected herd, increased hygienic procedures, replacement of transports of pigs for welfare reasons by killing of young piglets and a breeding ban, and regional screening for CSF-infected herds by local veterinary practitioners.     

Field observations during the bluetongue serotype 8 epidemic in 2006. I. Detection of first outbreaks and clinical signs in sheep and cattle in Belgium, France and the Netherlands

Starting August 2006, a major epidemic of bluetongue (BT) was identified in North-West Europe, affecting The Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Luxemburg and the North of France. It was caused by BT virus serotype 8 (BTV-8), a serotype previously unknown to the European Union (EU). In this outbreak, the virus caused clinical disease in a few individual animals within cattle herds, whereas overt clinical disease was usually restricted to sheep. Investigations in Belgium suggested that the first clinical signs of BTV-8 appeared mid July 2006 in a cattle herd, while the first suspicion of a BT-outbreak in Belgium was reported on 17 August 2006. In the first 10 BTV-8 outbreaks in the Netherlands, the owners indicated that the first clinical signs started approximately 12-17 days before a suspicion was reported to the veterinary authorities via a veterinary practitioner. In BTV-8 affected sheep flocks, erosions of the oral mucosa, fever, salivation, facial and mandibular oedema, apathy and tiredness, mortality, oedema of the lips, lameness, and dysphagia were among the most frequent clinical signs recorded. The most prominent clinical signs in BTV-8 affected cattle herds were: crusts/lesions of the nasal mucosa, erosions of lips/crusts in or around the nostrils, erosions of the oral mucosa, salivation, fever, conjunctivitis, coronitis, muscle necrosis, and stiffness of the limbs. Crusts/lesions of nasal mucosa, conjunctivitis, hyperaemic/purple coloration and lesions of the teats, and redness/hypersensitivity of the skin were relatively more seen on outbreak farms with cattle compared to sheep. Mortality, oedema of the head and ears, coronitis, redness of the oral mucosa, erosions/ulceration of tongue mucosa, purple coloration of the tongue and tongue protrusion and dyspneu were relatively more seen on outbreak farms with sheep compared to cattle.     

Transplacental transmission of Bluetongue virus serotype 8 in ewes in early and mid gestation

The ability of Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) originating from the 2006 European outbreak to cross the ovine placenta during early and mid gestation was investigated in two separate experiments. In the first experiment, 16 ewes were infected with BTV-8 at 70-75 days gestation. The foetuses were collected at 18-19 days after infection (dpi). BTV-8 could be isolated from at least two organs of 19 out of 40 lambs and from 11 out of 16 infected ewes. In the second experiment, 20 BTV-8 infected ewes in early gestation (day 40-45) were euthanized at 10 days (10 ewes) or 30 days (10 ewes) after infection. The presence of BTV could be demonstrated in two foetuses from two ewes at 10 dpi and in 4 foetuses from four ewes at 30 dpi. The main pathological findings in the foetuses in mid gestation were meningo-encephalitis and vacuolation of the cerebrum. In the foetuses early at gestation, haemorrhages in various foetal tissues and necrosis and haemorrhages in the placentomes were found. These experiments demonstrate for the first time the presence of infectious BTV in lamb foetuses at different stages of gestation, combined with a difference in transmission rate depending on the gestation stage. The high transmission rate found at mid term gestation (69%) makes our model very suitable for further research into the mechanisms of transplacental transmission and for research into the reduction of this route of transmission through vaccination.     

Impact of human interventions on the spread of bluetongue virus serotype 8 during the 2006 epidemic in north-western Europe

Bluetongue virus (BTV) can be spread by movement or migration of infected ruminants. Infected midges (Culicoides sp.) can be dispersed with livestock or on the wind. Transmissions of infection from host to host by semen and trans-placental infection of the embryo from the dam have been found. As for any infectious animal disease, the spread of BTV can be heavily influenced by human interventions preventing or facilitating the transmission pathways. This paper describes the results of investigations that were conducted on the potential role of the above-mentioned human interventions on the spread of BTV-8 during the 2006 epidemic in north-western Europe. Data on surveillance and control measures implemented in the affected European Union (EU) Member States (MS) were extracted from the legislation and procedures adopted by the national authorities in Belgium, France, Germany, and The Netherlands. The impact of the control measures on the BTV-incidence in time and space was explored. Data on ruminant transports leaving the area of first infection (AFI) to other areas within and beyond the affected MS were obtained from the national identification and registration systems of the three initially affected MS (Belgium, Germany, The Netherlands) and from the Trade Control and Expert System (TRACES) of the European Commission. The association between the cumulative number of cases that occurred in a municipality outside the AFI and the number of movements or the number of animals moved from the AFI to that municipality was assessed using a linear negative binomial regression model. The results of this study indicated that the control measures which were implemented in the affected MS (in accordance with EU directives) were not able to fully stop further spread of BTV and to control the epidemic. This finding is not surprising because BT is a vector-borne disease and it is difficult to limit vector movements. We could not assess the consequences of not taking control measures at all but it is possible, if not most likely, that this would have resulted in even wider spread. The study also showed an indication of the possible involvement of animal movements in the spread of BTV during the epidemic. Therefore, the prevention of animal movements remains an important tool to control BTV outbreaks. The extension of the epidemic to the east cannot be explained by the movement of animals, which mainly occurred in a north-western direction. This indicates that it is important to consider other influential factors such as dispersal of infected vectors depending on wind direction, or local spread.     

Field observations during the Bluetongue serotype 8 epidemic in 2006. II. Morbidity and mortality rate, case fatality and clinical recovery in sheep and cattle in the Netherlands

Data collected in the Netherlands during the Bluetongue serotype 8 (BTV-8) epidemic indicated that in outbreak cattle herds, predominantly dairy and nursing cows were clinically affected and not young stock, beef cattle, beef calves, or breeding animals. In outbreak sheep flocks, mainly ewes and - if present - rams, were clinically affected and not the lambs. Median morbidity rate in outbreak herds was 1.85 per 100 sheep-month at risk and 0.32 per 100 cattle-month at risk for sheep and cattle, respectively. The mean proportion of BT-affected animals in outbreak herds that recovered from clinical disease was approximately eight times higher for cattle compared to sheep in the Netherlands. Median mortality rate in outbreak herds was 0.5 per 100 sheep-month at risk of dying and 0 per 100 cattle-month at risk of dying for sheep and cattle, respectively. Median recovery time of both sheep and cattle that recovered from clinical disease in outbreak herds was 14 days. Median case fatality was 50% in sheep outbreak flocks and 0% in outbreak cattle herds. It is concluded that morbidity and mortality in outbreak cattle herds was very limited during the BTV-8 epidemic in the Netherlands in 2006. In outbreak sheep flocks, morbidity was limited, with exceptions for a few flocks. However, almost 50% of the clinically sick sheep died in outbreak sheep herds.     

Comparing the epidemiological and economic effects of control strategies against classical swine fever in Denmark

In 2006, total Danish pork exports were valued at €3.8 billion, corresponding to approximately 5% of the total Danish exports, and an outbreak of a notifiable disease would have dramatic consequences for the agricultural sector in Denmark. Several outbreaks of classical swine fever (CSF) have occurred in Europe within the last decade, and different control strategies have been suggested. The objective of this study was to simulate the epidemiological and economic consequences of such control strategies in a CSF epidemic under Danish conditions with respect to herd demographics and geography and to investigate the effect of extra biosecurity measures on farms. We used InterSpread Plus to model the effect of nine different control strategies: the minimum measures required by the EU plus depopulation of contact herds (EUplus), extra depopulation of neighbouring herds, extra surveillance within the protection and surveillance zones, extra biosecurity in SPF herds—or in all herds, vaccination of all pigs in the 1 or 2 km zones using live vaccine as a protective measure (vaccination-to-kill), vaccination of all weaners and finishers in the 1 or 2 km zones using an E2 marker vaccine as a suppressive measure (vaccination-to-live). Each epidemic was simulated to start in four different index herds: production herds located in low, medium and high pig density areas, respectively; and a nucleus herd in an area of high pig density. For each control strategy and index case, we calculated the size and duration of the epidemic, the number of depopulated and/or vaccinated herds and animals, the control costs borne by the public and the pig industry, respectively, as well as the loss of exports associated with the epidemic.The simulations showed that the EUplus strategy is the most effective of the evaluated strategies with respect to limiting the size, duration and cost of the epidemic, regardless of the index case. However, regarding the number of slaughtered animals, the vaccination-to-live strategies appeared to be more effective.Epidemics become larger and last longer if the index case is a nucleus herd. This implies that biosecurity in nucleus herds is extremely important to avoid transmission of CSF to these herds.Simulations showed that a Danish CSF epidemic will be moderate in most cases and will include fewer than 10 cases and last less than 2 weeks on average. However, for some iterations, long-lasting and large epidemics were observed. Irrespective of the size and duration, an epidemic is expected to be very costly due to the export losses.     

Results of epidemic simulation modeling to evaluate strategies to control an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease

OBJECTIVE: To assess estimated effectiveness of control and eradication procedures for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in a region of California. SAMPLE POPULATION: 2,238 herds and 5 sale yards in Fresno, Kings, andTulare counties of California. PROCEDURE: A spatial stochastic model was used to simulate hypothetical epidemics of FMD for specified control scenarios that included a baseline eradication strategy mandated by USDA and supplemental control strategies of slaughter or vaccination of all animals within a specified distance of infected herds, slaughter of only high-risk animals identified by use of a model simulation, and expansion of infected and surveillance zones. RESULTS: Median number of herds affected varied from 1 to 385 (17% of all herds), depending on type of index herd and delay in diagnosis of FMD. Percentage of herds infected decreased from that of the baseline eradication strategy by expanding the designated infected area from 10 to 20 km (48%), vaccinating within a 50-km radius of an infected herd (41%), slaughtering the 10 highest-risk herds for each infected herd (39%), and slaughtering all animals within 5 km of an infected herd (24%). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Results for the model provided a means of assessing the relative merits of potential strategies for control and eradication of FMD should it enter the US livestock population. For the study region, preemptive slaughter of highest-risk herds and vaccination of all animals within a specified distance of an infected herd consistently decreased size and duration of an epidemic, compared with the baseline eradication strategy.     

The 1997-1998 epidemic of classical swine fever in the Netherlands

In 1997, the pig husbandry in the Netherlands was struck by a severe epidemic of classical swine fever (CSF). During this epidemic 429 CSF-infected herds were depopulated and approximately 1300 herds were slaughtered pre-emptively. In addition millions of pigs of herds not CSF-infected were killed for welfare reasons (over crowding or overweight). In this paper, we describe the course of the epidemic and the measures that were taken to control it.The first outbreak was detected on 4 February 1997 in the pig dense south-eastern part of the Netherlands. We estimate that CSF virus (CSFV) had already been present in the country by that time for 5-7 weeks and that the virus had been introduced into approximately 39 herds before the eradication campaign started. This campaign consisted of stamping-out infected herds, movement restrictions and efforts to diagnose infected herds as soon as possible. However, despite these measures the rate at which new outbreaks were detected continued to rise. The epidemic faded out only upon the implementation of additional measures such as rapid pre-emptive slaughter of herds in contact with or located near infected herds, increased hygienic measures, biweekly screening of all herds by veterinary practitioners, and reduction of the transportation movements for welfare reasons. The last infected herd was depopulated on 6 March 1998.     

Simulation study to assess the efficiency of a test-and-cull scheme to control the spread of the bovine viral-diarrhoea virus in a dairy herd

To control the spread of bovine viral-diarrhoea virus (BVDV), test-and-cull schemes have been used in Scandinavian countries, with success, when combined with strict control of new animal introductions into herds. In situations where BVDV reintroduction is likely to occur, it is necessary to assess precisely the expected efficiency of test-and-cull schemes. The objective of this study was to compare, by simulation, the persistence and consequences of BVDV infection in a fully susceptible dairy herd with either a test-and-cull scheme or no control action. We used a stochastic individual-based model representing the herd structure as groups of animals, herd dynamics, the contact structure within the herd and virus transmission. After an initial introduction of the virus into a fully susceptible herd, the frequency of purchases of animals that introduced the virus was simulated as high, intermediate or null. Virus persistence and epidemic size (total number of animals infected) were simulated over 10 years. The test-and-cull reduced the epidemic size and the number of days the virus was present except in herds with complete prevention of contact between groups of animals. Where no virus was reintroduced, virus persistence did not exceed 6 years with a test-and-cull scheme, whereas the virus was still present 10 years after the virus introduction in some replications with no control action (<2%). Where frequent purchases were made that led to virus introduction (6 within 10 years), with an intermediate virus transmission between groups, the probability of virus persistence 10 years after the first virus introduction fell from 31% to 8% with the test-and-cull scheme (compared to the do-nothing strategy). Within the newly infected herd, the test-and-cull scheme had no effect, on inspection, on the number of PI births, embryonic deaths or abortions over 10 years. Given this, the economic efficiency of the test-and-cull scheme should be further investigated.