Large-scale scenario analysis in forest ecology and forest management

Large-scale scenario models have been developed to combine forest inventory data and forest growth models to explore impacts of changes in environmental conditions and consequences of changes in forest management, and to support decision-making and policy development. This article reviews some of the scenario studies done by EFI researchers in the past, and attempts to identify current limitations as well as future challenges in this field of research. Main emphasis so far has been on science-driven, technical scenario studies focussing on timber supply and carbon budget studies. While the need remains to improve the science-driven part of large-scale scenario analysis, there is an urgent need to extend the analysis to include value-driven aspects of forest management strategies, to arrive at consistent and comprehensive scenarios for possible future developments in European forestry that can be used in policy-making processes.     

Decision support systems in forest management: requirements from a participatory planning perspective

Participatory approaches and computerised tools such as decision support systems (DSS) represent conflicting tendencies in state-of the-art sustainable forest management. As a result, there may be considerable tension between these two developments in practice. The objective of this paper is to explore how participatory approaches and DSS could be brought together to improve planning processes and to explore how DSS could be adapted in their use or combined with other tools to enable successful participatory planning. From a review of the literature, we identified criteria related to successful participatory planning. From these criteria, we selected those a DSS can influence and created a short list of the criteria that could be used to evaluate participatory processes where DSS are applied. The evaluation criteria with particular relevance for DSS that we identified are as follows: fairness, opportunity to influence outcome, quality and selection of information, cost-effectiveness, challenging status quo and fostering creative thinking, structured decision-making process, transparency, and independence and neutrality of process. We also scrutinised existing forest DSS and identified features that may enable DSS to address these criteria. The features of DSS we identified that may support participatory processes are as follows: group decision support, possibilities to include other values than timber production, flexibility of system to include non-traditional forest data and management options, and multi-criteria decision analysis tools. We argue that the DSS to be used should be assessed to clarify, how it can be used in the specific planning situation and how it should be complemented with other available and non-computerised tools.     

MyLand: a web-based and meta-model decision support system framework for spatial and temporal evaluation of integrated land use

This study developed an integrated decision support system (DSS) to assist land managers in taking a long-term holistic approach to integrated land-use decisions. “MyLand” is a unique combination of existing methods and techniques: meta-modelling calibrated off-productivity surfaces for spatial application, a decision tree for selecting options, multiple land-use analysis, multiple outputs and a mapping interface deployed over the Web. The design provides visualisation of geospatial information and enables multiple stakeholders to contribute to a more collaborative land-use planning process. Techniques to solve forestry modelling challenges have been generalised and applied in modelling pastoral and forestry land-use types. Forestry yield modelling is accommodated by a two-stage approach of spatial modelling of a productivity index followed by meta-modelling output from forest stand growth models. Livestock farming is modelled using the property owner's estimates of livestock carrying capacity of land management units in a whole property stock reconciliation model. The environmental performance of the property is calculated from the land-use type and management regime. A case study is described to demonstrate the use of “MyLand” and results of user evaluation of the DSS are presented.     

Decision support system for forest fire protection in the Euro-Mediterranean region

This paper describes the development of a decision support system (DSS) for prevention planning and emergency management of forest fire events that incorporates weather data management, a geographical data viewer, a priori danger forecasting and fire propagation modeling, automatic fire detection, and optimal resource dispatching. Collection, input, storage, management, and analysis of the information rely on advanced and automated methodologies using remote sensing, GPS, digital mapping, and geographic information systems. The results included short-term dynamic fire danger indices developed for improved and realistic prevention and pre-suppression planning. An automatic fire detection technology based on infrared video was developed and successfully tested on site. Several models for understanding fire propagation on forest fires have been proposed for practical application. Additionally, a DSS was developed with the innovation of covering wildland fire hazard management entirely, providing a complete coverage of technical and administrative activities that support decision makers in real time. The DSS was tested for high fire seasons in two different sites in South Europe.     

Non-market forest ecosystem services and decision support in Nordic countries

The need to integrate non-market ecosystem services into decision-making is widely acknowledged. Despite the exponentially growing body of literature, trade-offs between services are still poorly understood. We conducted a systematic review of published literature in the Nordic countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland) on the integration of non-market forest ecosystem services into decision-making. The aim of the review was two-fold: (1) to provide an overview of coverage of biophysical and socio-economic assessments of non-market ecosystem services in relation to forest management; (2) to determine the extent of the integration of biophysical and socio-economic models of these services into decision support models. Our findings reveal the need for wider coverage of non-market ecosystem services and evidence-based modelling of how forest management regimes affect ecosystem services. Furthermore, temporal and spatial modelling of ecosystem impacts remains a challenge. We observed a few examples of multiple non-market services assessments. Integration of non-market services into decision support was performed with either biophysical or socio-economic models, often using proxies and composite indicators. The review reveals that there is scope for more comprehensive and integrated model development, including multiple ecosystem services and appropriate handling of forest management impacts.     

Collaborative development of a semantic wiki on forest management decision support

Semantic wikis support collaboratively editing, categorising, interlinking and retrieving web pages for a group of experts working in a certain domain. The use of semantic technologies allows the expression of wiki content in a more structured way, which increases its potential use. This contribution presents an overview of the development process towards a semantic wiki related to a repository of forest decision support systems, including models, methods and data used, as well as case studies and lessons learned. An international group of experts took part in the conceptualisation of the semantic wiki (i.e. identification of wiki properties and forms), provided content and developed queries to analyse the information gathered. The resulting ForestDSS wiki gives an overview of the current use, development and application of forest decision support systems worldwide. Based on the experiences gathered during the process, some challenges are reported and conclusions on further developments are made.     

地理信息系统在林业中的应用、问题及前景(英文)

森林经营决策必须建立在现在和未来森林资源的时空分布信息基础上 ,而跟踪和获得森林资源信息的变化极具挑战性 ,因为森林资源是一个处于持续不断变化的动态生态系统 ,它的不定性和复杂性决定了森林经营需要更有用的和更及时的信息 ,因此时空信息是进行有效森林决策的基石 .现有的传统技术已满足不了大规模的森林规划和经营的需求 .地理信息系统是基于计算机基础之上的分析工具 ,能为森林经理提供复杂的空间信息 ,并建立定量模型 .本文综述了地理信息系统在森林经营方面的应用 ;指出了地理信息系统在林业中的效益、问题和局限 ;分析了地理信息系统在同其它空间技术如遥感、全球定位系统、人工智能建模、决策支持系统等方面的最新进展与发展方向     

美国的森林动态评价模型及其对中国森林健康评价的启示

应用动态模型评价森林健康状况,预测树木或林分的生长与收获,以及在不同立地条件下采用某些特定的营林技术措施后林分的动态变化,一直是森林健康评价及管理的核心问题.当前在美国应用的两个森林动态评价及决策模型SIMPPLLE和MAGIS主要是用来评价当前林分状况、模拟林分发展以及预测不同经营管理方式下林分未来的动态变化状况,通过分析不同决策下森林植被的收获状况,选择最优化的管理措施以及实施措施的时间及地点制定最优化决策.针对现阶段中国森林健康评价中,以建立评价指标体系进行静态评价、缺乏空间信息数据和森林健康经营动态变化规律模型等问题,提出今后应针对中国实际情况开展切合实际的研究,开发出以促进森林健康经营为目的的动态预测模型和决策模型,提高森林健康的预测能力,完善森林健康经营综合评价技术体系.     

Actor-Network-Theory perspective on a forestry decision support system design

Use of decision support systems (DSS) has thus far been framed as a social process of adoption or technical process of usability. We analyze the development of a DSS as a process of institutionalization of new as well as drift of existing practices. We write an Actor-Network-Theory (ANT) account, i.e. an interpretive study, that follows the traces left by both human and non-human actors (e.g. technology, methodologies, etc.) to understand how a DSS development project institutionalizes DSS technology in several forest management organizations in the German state of Rheinland Pfalz. The research has an innovative value since it uses ANT in the design of a DSS, hence affecting it, while commonly ANT has been used to understand why networks work or do not. Moreover, we use a new technology (PREZI^TM, www.prezi.com) for the visualization of the whole actor network coherent to the ANT methodology, i.e. “keeping the social flat.” As a result, the development of the ANT account proposed in the present paper, even if still partial, supports the design of new technologies being introduced in current practice and generates an important learning effect thanks to the underpinning interpretative approach.     

高保护价值森林理论研究和应用现状及发展趋势

文中简述了高保护价值森林概念提出的背景及其主要理论基础, 总结了高保护价值森林理论在森林经营与认证、人工林规划和经营、景观规划及自然保护规划、林产品采购和林业项目投资等领域的应用现状, 并分析了高保护价值森林理论应用面临的挑战及未来发展前景。     

中国森林破碎化及其化解研究综述及展望

中国森林面积增长举世瞩目,但森林破碎化问题日益凸显。如何化解森林破碎化问题尚未引起国内学术界的充分关注,研究储备难以支撑中国森林整体性和系统性的管理政策实践。文中在综述中国森林破碎化驱动力的基础上从社会经济发展、森林景观恢复、森林治理3个视角综述化解森林破碎化的相关措施,并基于奥斯特罗姆的社会生态系统分析框架提出森林破碎化化解框架,指出中国森林破碎化研究的基本路径和未来展望。现有社会经济发展、森林景观恢复、森林治理等方面的研究在如何解决森林破碎化问题上渐趋融合,认识到单纯从生态系统或者社会系统出发的解决方案收效有限,需要将森林破碎化问题置于社会生态系统中进行考虑,探索化解森林破碎化的综合方法。森林破碎化化解框架为揭示森林破碎化的化解因素、作用机制和效果评估提供了分析工具,需要挖掘和整理中国在化解森林破碎化方面积累的实践经验,识别影响森林破碎化的关键因素,理清它们与森林破碎化之间的作用机制,明晰它们的综合作用如何影响了中国森林破碎化和森林生态系统综合管理的方向。     

林火指挥扑救决策支持系统的设计与实现

在分析林火指挥扑救目标的基础上,采用RS、GIS、DSS等技术,通过模糊数据开采方法设计了林火指挥扑救决策支持系统,系统能实时进行林火行为的模拟预测,形成扑火力量集结方案,为林火指挥扑救提供决策支持方案。该系统已成功运行于广州市森林防火指挥中心。     

广州市林火扑救与指挥决策支持系统的建立

在RS,GIS和DSS技术支持下,提出了广州市林火指挥与扑救决策系统的系统目标,讨论了系统的网络结构与功能结构,重点阐述了系统的5大功能模块和决策支持系统数据库设计的4大数据模型.系统能实时进行林火行为的模拟预测,形成扑火力量集结方案,为林火指挥扑救提供决策支持方案,实现现场和防火指挥中心扑火方案的实时交互.     

Challenges in developing and implementing a decision support systems (ETÇAP) in forest management planning: a case study in Honaz and Ibradı, Turkey

Decision support systems (DSSs) are indispensable tools in preparing a forest management plan for a better combination of multiple forest values. This study attempted to develop and explain a stand-based forest management DSS (Ecosystem-based multiple-use forest planning [ETÇAP]) comprising a traditional simulation, linear programming (LP), metaheuristics and geographic information system. The model consists of five submodels; traditional management approach to handle inventory data, an empirical growth and yield model, a simulation to conceptualize management actions, a LP technique to optimize resource allocation and a simulated annealing approach to directly create a spatially feasible harvest schedule. The ETÇAP model has been implemented in a comparative two case study areas; Denizli–Honaz and Akseki–Ibrad?. Both simulation and optimization models outperformed to the traditional management plan. The periodical change of growing stock, allowable cuts, carbon sequestration and water production are used as performance indicators. The results showed that more amount of wood could be harvested over time compared to traditional level of harvesting. It could be concluded that various management strategies allowed managers to stimulate more decision options for better outputs through intertemporal trade-offs of management interventions as the model provided tools to quantify forest dynamics over time and space. Challenges exist to establish the functional relationships between forest structure and values for better quantification and integration into the management plans.     

基于工作流的森林经营空间决策支持系统研建

分析森林经营活动的内容和特点,以小班管理为例介绍应用工作流技术建立森林经营活动决策模型的方法,其中涉及到决策者模型的构建以及两种工作流基础模型的应用,分析空间信息在森林经营活动中的意义。以深国商林业信息化工程项目为例,研究基于工作流的森林经营空间决策支持系统的框架结构及其集成方法。     

Decision Support in Selection Cutting Planning of Uneven－aged Stand Management

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The Influence of Multiple Ownership Interests and Decision-Making Networks on the Management of Family Forest Lands: Evidence from the United States

A national assessment of how the number of parcel owners influence family forest land management and use decisions in the US was conducted using a subset of the US Forest Service’s National Woodland Owner Survey Dataset. Seventy-two percent of single parcel family forest land ownership respondents of at least 4.05 ha had multiple owners. The extent to which past land management practices and future intentions for the land are influenced by the number of owners of an individual parcel was evaluated. We also examined how landowner decision-making networks are related to past practices and future intentions. Contrary to previous findings, our research suggests that having more than one owner does not necessarily reduce the likelihood that a variety of different forest management activities, including commercial timber harvesting or wildlife habitat improvement, will occur. Moreover, we found that one-owner forested parcels are less likely to have experienced activities like harvesting, invasive plant removal, fire hazard reduction, wildlife habitat improvement, and cost-share program participation than parcels with two or more than two owners. We also found that family member involvement in landowner decision-making has a minimal effect on past and planned land management actions, while the involvement of a forester or land manager in decision-making increases the likelihood many land management actions have been or will be undertaken.     

A web-based ToolBox approach to support adaptive forest management under climate change

The design and implementation of the adaptive forest management (AFM) ToolBox is presented. Design principles derived from previous experiences in decision support system (DSS) development include support for (1) modularity, (2) accessibility via the Internet, (3) inclusion of different types of knowledge and information, (4) the use of different data sources, and (5) specific problem types. As major components of the AFM ToolBox DataBase, Vulnerability Assessment Tools (single user version, group mode) and an optimization tool to generate optimized management plans at the level of management units or landscapes are highlighted. A key feature is the distinction of two archetypical user profiles (manager, analyst). The AFM ToolBox is evaluated against eight criteria for the assessment of DSS. It is concluded that the ToolBox approach setting focus on modularity while avoiding to over-emphasis technical integration provides the right frame to secure the flexibility regarding tools and decision-making processes which is mandatory if a DSS should be taken up by practice.     

结构化森林经营研究进展

本文全面系统地综述了结构化森林经营技术的最新研究进展。指出结构化森林经营是针对目的树单木经营的高度集成技术,符合现代森林经营发展方向;结构化森林经营有望成为解决人工林近自然化转变的有效途径;结构化森林经营中林分空间结构参数综合评价势在必行。经历10多年的发展,结构化森林经营的基础理论更加完善、技术体系更加成熟、应用推广更加广泛。大面积推广应用结构化森林经营理论与技术,可有效提升我国森林质量,并缓解森林资源可持续发展与利用之间的矛盾。     

Forest condition and management in Swedish forest commons

Forest commons are regarded as a means to support local development and sustainable forest conditions. To evaluate the development impact of Swedish forest commons, comparative surveys have been undertaken in three regions, and the differences in forest condition and management between categories of commons as well as their relation to other forest ownerships have been assessed. Regional differences between the by-laws, historical development and geographical conditions are apparent. It is concluded that two of three regions have an overly restrictive harvesting policy given the purpose of the forest commons and the official forest policy. The study results underline the importance of evaluation of the performance of forest management in relation to management objectives, to ownership alternatives and to the impact of local variations in preconditions.