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1.
Time series of European sardine (Sardina pilchardus) landings from 1962 and environmental variables from 1978 in the northern Alboran Sea are analysed. European sardine spawns in the northern Alboran Sea from mid‐autumn to late winter at a temperature range slightly higher than the one observed in the nearby Eastern North Atlantic and the North Western Mediterranean. Individuals hatched during autumn and winter are incorporated to the fishery during the following summer and autumn producing the maximum annual landings. These landings show both a decreasing long‐term trend and a strong inter‐annual variability. Although further research is needed, the warming trend of sea surface temperature and the decrease in upwelling intensity inferred from empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses could have some influence on the negative trends of sardine landings. The inter‐annual variability of sardine abundance seems to be related to the wind intensity at a local scale, the second principal component of the chlorophyll concentration and the sardine abundance during the preceding year. If the inter‐annual variability is considered, a linear model including these three variables with a one‐year time lag allows to explain 79% of the sardine landings variance. If the negative linear trend is also considered, the model explains 86% of the variance. These results indicate that the body condition of spawners, linked to the food availability during the preceding year, is the main factor controlling the recruitment success. The possibility of predicting sardine landings 1 year in advance could have important implications for fishery management.  相似文献   

2.
Mangalore coast is well known for its multi‐species and multi‐gear fisheries and the fishery and oceanographic features of this region is a true representation of the Malabar upwelling system. Ten years of study (1995–2004) of oceanographic parameters has been carried out from the inshore waters off Mangalore to understand their seasonal and interannual variations and influences on the pelagic fishery of the region. Attempt has been also made to understand the influence of local and global environmental conditions on the alternating patterns of abundance between the Indian mackerel and oil sardine from the area. Field‐ and satellite‐derived oceanographic data have shown that coastal upwelling occurs during July–September with a peak in August resulting in high nutrient concentrations and biological productivity along the coast. Nearly 70% of the pelagic fish catch, dominated by oil sardine and mackerel, was obtained during September–December, during or immediately after the upwelling season. Catches of scombroid fishes were significantly related to cold Sea Surface Temperature, while such relationships were not observed for sardines and anchovies. Significant positive correlations were observed between the ENSO events (MEI) and seawater temperature from the study area. The extreme oceanographic events associated with the cold La Niña, which preceded the exceptional 1997–98 El Niño event, were responsible for the collapse of the pelagic fishery, especially the mackerel fishery along the southwest coast of India (Malabar upwelling system). Coinciding with the collapse of the mackerel fishery, oil sardine populations revived during 1999–2000 all along the southwest coast of India. Tolerance of oil sardine to El Niño / La Niña events and the low predatory pressure experienced by their eggs and larvae due to the collapse of mackerel population might have resulted in its population revival.  相似文献   

3.
Marine fish stocks are known for extensive variation in landings, with temporal fluctuations attributable to density-dependent as well as environmental effects. In this paper we analysed a 44-yr time-series of oil sardine Sardinella longiceps landings from the Arabian Sea off the Malabar Coast of India. Density dependence was detected in the landings of oil sardine, reinforcing the potential for sustainable yields. Significant environmental factors (precipitation and sea level reflecting the strength of upwelling) during the monsoon period (June–August) are hypothesized to affect the dynamics of landings by influencing spawning and recruitment success. Together, density dependence and environmental variability during the monsoon explained 80% of the among-years variance in landings. Our results have important consequences for understanding catch variability and are potentially useful for facilitating management of this commercially important fishery.  相似文献   

4.
From 1998 to 2011, the effects of environmental conditions on the spatial and temporal trends of sardine and sardinella catch rates in the Mauritanian waters were investigated using generalized additive models. Two models were used: a global model and an oceanographic model. The global models explained more of the variability in catch rates (60.4% for sardine and 40% for sardinella) than the oceanographic models (42% for sardine and 32.4% for sardinella). Both species showed clear and inverse seasonal variations in abundances corresponding to their main spawning activities and the hydrologic seasons off the Mauritanian waters. Sardine prefer colder waters and seem to occupy the ‘gap’ in the northern part of the Mauritanian waters as soon as sardinella has left the area because of to lower water temperatures. Unlike sardinella, sardine showed a gradual southward extension between 2002 and 2009. The oceanographic model revealed that a high proportion of catch variability for the two species could be explained by environmental variables. The main environmental parameters explaining the variability are sea surface temperature (SST) and the upwelling index for sardinella, and the chlorophyll‐a (Chl‐a) concentration, the upwelling index and SST for sardine. The sardinella spatio‐temporal variations off Mauritania seem to be more controlled by thermal than productivity gradients, probably linked to the species physiological constraints (thermal tolerance) whereas sardine seems to be more controlled by an ‘optimal upwelling and temperature’ windows. The results presented herein may be useful for understanding the movement of these species along the Mauritanian coast and hence their management under a changing climate.  相似文献   

5.
This study applied a previously used Lagrangian individual‐based model (IBM) for sardine in the Southern Benguela to an improved and more robust hydrodynamic model to investigate whether a more representative spatial coverage, greater horizontal and vertical resolution, more realistic winds and improved representation of mesoscale features such as eddies and filaments would give different results for transport and retention of early life stages. Despite major differences between the old and new hydrodynamic models, overall the IBM results were quite similar to the previous southern Benguela sardine IBM study. This surprising result indicates that it is the macroscale circulation features resolved by the two hydrodynamic models that are controlling transport and retention of sardine early life stages. The contribution of transient mesoscale features such as eddies and filaments appears to be less important when transport patterns are averaged over the 21‐year‐long experiment. Another aim of this study was to better estimate the contribution of south coast spawning to west coast sardine recruitment. This was possible because of an eastward extension of the geographical domain of the new hydrodynamic model which provided a more realistic representation of the south coast spawning ground. Three main spawning and nursery area systems, similar to those identified in the previous sardine IBM, were identified: west coast and west coast (WC‐WC), south coast and west coast (SC‐WC), and south coast and south coast (SC‐SC). Spawning area proved to be an important determinant of modelled retention and transport success, with spawning depth also playing an important role on the west coast. The main difference observed from the previous study was an increase in the average percentage of particles released on the south coast and transported to the west coast (P0, 17.4%). This indicates more connectivity between the southern and western sardine stocks than previously thought and is therefore important for fishery management. Standardized anomalies from the modelled retention/transport were compared with recruitment estimates from stock assessment models but there was no correlation between the two sets of anomalies. However, a significant correlation was observed between the modelled retention/transport anomalies for the west coast and total cumulative upwelling anomalies for the Southern Benguela (r = ?0.67, p < .001).  相似文献   

6.
Historical data from oceanographic expeditions and remotely sensed data on outgoing longwave radiation, temperature, wind speed and ocean color in the western Arabian Sea (1950–2010) were used to investigate decadal trends in the physical and biochemical properties of the upper 300 m. 72 % of the 29,043 vertical profiles retrieved originated from USA and UK expeditions. Increasing outgoing longwave radiation, surface air temperatures and sea surface temperature were identified on decadal timescales. These were well correlated with decreasing wind speeds associated with a reduced Siberian High atmospheric anomaly. Shoaling of the oxycline and nitracline was observed as well as acidification of the upper 300 m. These physical and chemical changes were accompanied by declining chlorophyll-a concentrations, vertical macrofaunal habitat compression, declining sardine landings and an increase of fish kill incidents along the Omani coast.  相似文献   

7.
In this study the performances of computational neural networks (CNNs), multiple linear regressions (MLRs) and generalised additive models (GAMs) to predict Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) landings and to analyse their relationships with environmental factors in the north area off Chile were studied. For this purpose several local and global environmental variables and indexes (sea surface temperature, sea level and Ekman transport index in the Chilean coast and, sea surface temperature in the area Niño 3 + 4 and Niño 1 + 2, and the south oscillation index) were considered as inputs or independent variables. Additionally, several CNNs were calibrated and validated adding the anchovy (Engraulis ringens) landings in the same area as model inputs. The time lags of the variables considered were selected through analysis of the non-linear cross-correlation functions and an alternative form of sensitivity analysis based on the approach of the missing value problem. The analysis of error measures with validation data set showed that the best results were obtained when local and global variables were used separately and combined with anchovy landings. Globally, the best result was given by a CNN with 18 input variables (model CNN 6(II) which only considered global variables and anchovy landings) and 10 neurons in a hidden layer. For this configuration the explained variance was slightly higher to 86% which supposed a standard error of prediction of 7.66%. These results were significantly better than those obtained with MLRs and GAMs. The strong correlation between predicted and observed sardine landings suggests that CNNs captured the trend of the historical data. Also, the generalisation capacity together the sensitivity analysis allowed us to identify the variables with a high weight in the model and partially to interpret the statistical functional relationships between these environmental variables and sardine landings.  相似文献   

8.
European sardine (Sardina pilchardus) and round sardinella (Sardinella aurita) comprise two‐thirds of total landings of small pelagic fishes in the Canary Current Eastern Boundary Ecosystem (CCEBE). Their spawning habitat is the continental shelf where upwelling is responsible for high productivity. While upwelling intensity is predicted to change through ocean warming, the effects of upwelling intensity on larval fish habitat expansion is not well understood. Larval habitat characteristics of both species were investigated during different upwelling intensity regimes. Three surveys were carried out to sample fish larvae during cold (permanent upwelling) and warm (low upwelling) seasons along the southern coastal upwelling area of the CCEBE (13°–22.5°N). Sardina pilchardus larvae were observed in areas of strong upwelling during both seasons. Larval habitat expansion was restricted from 22.5°N to 17.5°N during cold seasons and to 22.5°N during the warm season. Sardinella aurita larvae were observed from 13°N to 15°N during cold seasons and 16–21°N in the warm season under low upwelling conditions. Generalized additive models predicted upwelling intensity driven larval fish abundance patterns. Observations and modeling revealed species‐specific spawning times and locations, that resulted in a niche partitioning allowing species' co‐existence. Alterations in upwelling intensity may have drastic effects on the spawning behavior, larval survival, and probably recruitment success of a species. The results enable insights into the spawning behavior of major small pelagic fish species in the CCEBE. Understanding biological responses to physical variability are essential in managing marine resources under changing climate conditions.  相似文献   

9.
Comparative studies were made on the growth and biometric relationships of the pearl oyster Pinctada fucata (Gould) Tuticorin stock at (Tuticorin (TST) – parent stock) transplanted from the Tuticorin Bay (8.7°N; 78.2°E) in the Gulf of Mannar along the Indian southeast coast to Kollam Bay (8.8°N; 76.5°E) in the Arabian Sea along the Indian southwest coast (Tuticorin stock at Kollam (TSK) – transplanted stock). At the time of transplantation, Kollam Bay did not have a native stock, however, within a year, the transplanted stock spawned and oyster spats were collected from within the farm (Kollam stock (KS) – progeny stock). The growth in dorso‐ventral measurement and total weight in Kollam Bay was 1.4–1.6 times and 3.1 to 6.8 times respectively greater than that observed at Tuticorin. Furthermore, at Kollam Bay, the thickness observed at the end of first year was similar to that obtained at the end of second year in Tuticorin. Both the TSK and KS had significantly higher instantaneous growth rates (IGR) than TST. All the stocks displayed significantly different biometric relationships. The increased growth in Kollam Bay is attributed to the almost double productivity in the Arabian Sea compared with the Bay of Bengal. It is concluded that in the case of P. fucata, the site and its interaction with environment are important determinants of growth and shell dimensions. The present study clearly indicates that the environmental conditions prevailing along the southeast Arabian Sea are congenial for the growth, gametogenesis, spawning and settlement of P. fucata larvae. In spite of strong monsoonal influences in the hydrology of Kollam Bay, the growth and reproduction of P. fucata stocks indicates its relative hardiness and ability to adapt to a changed environment.  相似文献   

10.
Important environmental processes for the survival and recruitment of early life stages of pelagic fishes have been synthesized through Bakun's fundamental triad as enrichment, concentration and retention processes (A. Bakun, 1996, Patterns in the Ocean. Ocean Processes and Marine Population Dynamics. San Diego, CA, USA: University of California Sea Grant). This conceptual framework states that from favourable spawning habitats, eggs and larvae would be transported to and/or retained in places where food originating from enrichment areas would be concentrated. We propose a method for quantifying two of the triad processes, enrichment and retention, based on the Lagrangian tracking of particles transported within water velocity fields generated by a three‐dimensional hydrodynamic model. We apply this method to the southern Benguela upwelling ecosystem, constructing putative maps of enrichment and retention. We comment on these maps regarding main features of the circulation in the region, and investigate seasonal variability of the processes. We finally discuss the results in relation to available knowledge on the reproductive strategies of two pelagic clupeoid species abundant in the southern Benguela, anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and sardine (Sardinops sagax). Our approach is intended to be sufficiently generic so as to allow its application to other upwelling systems.  相似文献   

11.
Seasonal variations in meteorological and oceanographic processes in the South Brazil Bight were studied to assess their influence on the Brazilian sardine Sardinella brasiliensis fishery. According to its environmental characteristics, the South Brazil Bight was divided into three sectors. The northern and southern sectors were similar during the spring and summer, showing areas of coastal upwelling and low rainfall rates. The middle sector was characterized by the presence of low-salinity coastal waters in the inner shelf and by high rainfall. During autumn and winter, the middle and southern sectors were similar, both being under the influence of sub-Antarctic waters. Multiple regression analyses showed significant correlation between environmental data and catches, although at a lower level in the northern sector ( r 2 = 0.57). In the middle and southern sectors, environmental data were highly correlated with the catches ( r 2 = 0.90 and 0.84). The sardine landings in the middle sector are principally affected by meteorological parameters, and in the south by oceanographic ones. In the middle sector, an inverse correlation between landings and rainfall is shown, while in the south, landings are positively correlated with salinity and sea temperature. The conclusion is that the seasonal landings of the Brazilian sardine within the South Brazil Bight are influenced by the distribution of less saline waters, the coastal waters and sub-Antarctic waters.  相似文献   

12.
Winter‐to‐spring variability in sea surface temperature (SST) and mixed layer depth (MLD) around the Kuroshio current system and its relationship to the survival rate (ln [recruit per spawning stock biomass], LNRPS) of Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) were investigated based on a correlation analysis of data from 1980 to 1995. The data were from a high‐resolution ocean general circulation model using the ‘Kuroshio axis coordinates’, in which the meridional positions are relocated to a latitude relative to the Kuroshio axis at each longitude, rather than the geographically fixed coordinates. A significant positive (negative) correlation between LNRPS and winter MLD (winter–spring SST) was detected near the Kuroshio axis from areas south of Japan (where eggs are spawned) to the Kuroshio Extension (where larvae are transported). This result is in contrast to previous studies using geographically fixed coordinates, which showed a significant correlation predominantly in the area south of the Kuroshio Extension in winter, where at this time few larvae have been found. From the late 1980s to early 1990s, when the survival rate was remarkably low, MLD around the axis was shallow and SST was high. Although MLD and SST show a significant correlation, significant partial correlations were also observed between February MLD and LNRPS when the contribution of SST was excluded, and between March SST and LNRPS when the contribution of MLD was excluded. We presume that MLD shoaling reduced the nutrient supply from deep layers, resulting in less productivity in the spring, and SST warming could have a negative influence on larval growth.  相似文献   

13.
Off southern‐central Chile, the impact of spring upwelling variability on common sardine (Strangomera bentincki) recruitment was examined by analyzing satellite and coastal station winds, satellite chlorophyll, and common sardine recruitment from a stock assessment model. In austral spring, the intensity of wind‐driven upwelling is related to sea surface temperature (SST) from the Niño 3.4 region, being weak during warm periods (El Niño) and strong during cold periods (La Niña). Interannual changes in both spring upwelling intensity and SST from the Niño 3.4 region are related to changes in remotely sensed chlorophyll over the continental shelf. In turn, year‐to‐year changes in coastal chlorophyll are tightly coupled to common sardine recruitment. We propose that, in the period 1991–2004, interannual changes in the intensity of spring upwelling affected the abundance and availability of planktonic food for common sardine, and consequently determined pre‐recruit survival and recruitment strength. However, the importance of density‐dependent factors on the reproductive dynamic cannot be neglected, as a negative association exists between spawning biomass and recruitment‐per‐spawning biomass. Coastal chlorophyll, upwelling intensity, and SST anomalies from the Niño 3.4 region could potentially help to predict common sardine recruitment scenarios under strong spring upwelling and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)‐related anomalies.  相似文献   

14.
Upwelling is a characteristic feature of the Benguela system. Strong upwelling leads to high primary production, which, in turn, supports large biomass of higher trophic levels. To analyse intra‐, interannual and decadal variability of fish recruitment, growth, and distribution, different methods to quantify this upwelling have been used. In the present work, an upwelling index, modelled diatom primary production, based on outputs from a numerical model for the Benguela upwelling system, is proposed. Upwelled water brings large amounts of nutrients into the euphotic zone and this supports primary productivity, which can be considered a preconditioner for the zooplankton that clupeoid larvae feed on. Therefore, it is assumed that high upwelling gives the potential for good feeding conditions for these larvae. This fact has motivated the use of the modelled index for upwelling intensity as a proxy for food availability and an investigation of the interannual variability of observed mean individual weight of Cape anchovy (Engraulis capensis) and sardine (Sardinops sagax) recruits. The study shows that the mean Cape anchovy recruit weight has a linear relationship with upwelling activity along the transport route (from the spawning to the nursery areas) and inside the nursery areas, while sardine have an Optimal Environmental Window (OEW) relationship to the upwelling on the transport route. A possible explanation for these observed differences is the prey the larvae feed on and the change in the plankton community as a function of upwelling activity.  相似文献   

15.
This study examined links between the variability of coastal front features and composition of fishery landings. Satellite‐derived sea surface temperature data allowed the detection of thermal fronts and calculation of front metrics that account for gradient, persistency, and vicinity. Landings data were clustered by functional group (according to habitat use, size, morphology), and trophic level (TL). Three independent time series analyses, based on two different classes of statistical methodologies, were carried out: (i) correlation analysis performed on species aggregated by functional groups, and (ii) compositional analysis performed on the top five species landed and on species aggregated by trophic level. Analyses were carried out for the Moroccan coast of the Alboran Sea (western Mediterranean Sea). Results of the proposed type of application were discussed with respect to their potential for improving scientific knowledge and management of fisheries in data‐poor areas. Pelagic landings were associated with front indicators in two‐thirds of tested cases. The results demonstrated a markedly different association between landings and front features in the Nador fishing zone, relative to M'diq and Al Hoceima. Improved performance of the front gradient and persistence indicator was detected, with respect to the front gradient only for flatfish and demersal landings. Compositional data regression outlined a different role for Sardina pilchardus and Trachurus trachurus in the Al Hoceima and M'diq landings, and in the latter case the dominance of these two species in the landings seemed to respond to the front density indicator. A decreasing trend in TL > 3.5 landings was detected with increasing front distance.  相似文献   

16.
ABSTRACT

Seasonal variations (premonsoon, monsoon, and postmonsoon) of the lipid, fatty acid, and total cholesterol profile in edible tissues of Sardinella longiceps collected from the southwest and southeast coasts of India over 4 yr (2008–2011) were studied. The correlation between the fatty acid composition with chlorophyll-a concentration, sea surface temperature, total phytoplankton density, diatom concentration, and fatty acid profiles of pooled stomach microalgal content were also evaluated. Significant correlation was observed between oil sardine and pooled stomach microalgal content polyunsaturated fatty acids along with chlorophyll-a concentration, especially during the monsoon at the southwest coast and monsoon and postmonsoon at the southeast coast of the Indian subcontinent. Similarly, the health indices such as atherogenic index, thrombogenicity index, total cholesterol, and hypocholesterolemic/hypercholesterolemic ratio of oil sardine were found to be ideal, which contributed toward its parameters to be qualified as an ideal health food.  相似文献   

17.
Pop‐up satellite archival tags (PSATs) were deployed on 52 large (156–200 cm length to caudal fork) southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) in the western Tasman Sea during the austral winters of 2001–2005. Southern bluefin tuna (SBT) were resident in the Tasman Sea for up to 6 months with movements away from the tagging area occurring at highly variable rates. The data indicated a general tendency for SBT to move south from the tagging area in the Western Tasman Sea. Four individuals migrated west along the southern continental margin of Australia and into the Indian Ocean. Three individuals moved east into the central Tasman Sea, with one individual reaching New Zealand. We also describe the first observed migration of an SBT from the Tasman Sea to the Indian Ocean spawning grounds south of Indonesia. Individuals spent most of their time relatively close to the Australian coast, with an estimated 84% of time spent in the Australian Fishing Zone. SBT favored temperatures between 19 and 21°C, adjusting their depth to the vertical temperature distribution. Distinct diurnal diving patterns were observed and adjustment of depth to maintain constant ambient light levels over a 24‐h period. The findings of this study are a significant advance toward greater understanding of the spatial dynamics of large SBT and understanding the connectivity between distant regions of their distribution.  相似文献   

18.
Climatic warming is affecting oceanic circulation patterns in coastal upwelling areas, but the impact of this climatic change on pelagic fish populations remains unclear. From juvenile landings collected over 38 years, the thresholds of environmental factors were determined that limited the optimal environmental window (OEW) for sardine (Sardina pilchardus recruitment success in the northwestern Iberian peninsula. The environmental factors considered were: water column stability in February, offshore water transport in March–April (QxMA), upwelling intensity in the preceding year from May to August (QxMJJA), and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. From 1875 to the mid‐1920s, the mean number of years within the OEW was relatively constant. However, since the mid‐1920s, there have been oscillations and alternating decades with high and low number of years within the OEW, which were related to oscillations in sardine landings. From 1906 to 2000, there were four record, low sardine catches in the 1920s, 1950s, 1970s and 1990s, related to a high number of successive years with prevailing conditions out of the OEW. From 1875 to the present, a high year‐to‐year variation of the NAO, QxMJJA and water stability in February was observed, although with mean values usually within the OEW. The collapse in the 1950s was related, partly, to successive years with low QxMJJA. Successive years with high NAO values may be related to the collapse of the sardine fishery in the 1990s. QxMA has been the most significant factor controlling SRS in this area, being the factor related to the low catches observed in the 1920s, 1950s and 1970s. Water stability was not responsible for any of the collapses observed, but since the 1920s, there has been a significant trend toward decreasing water column stability before the onset of the spring bloom.  相似文献   

19.
  1. The sand tiger shark (Carcharias taurus) is a coastal species distributed in temperate and sub‐tropical waters, classified as ‘Vulnerable’ at global level and ‘Critically endangered’ in eastern Australia, south‐western Atlantic Ocean, and Mediterranean Sea. Six populations (north‐western Atlantic, Brazil, South Africa, Japan, eastern Australia, and western Australia) with low genetic diversity and limited gene flow were identified worldwide, but genetic information for many other geographic areas are still missing. Specifically, this species is listed in several reports as part of the Mediterranean fauna, even if there has been a lack of catches and sightings in recent years in this basin. To clarify the origin of C. taurus individuals caught in the past in the Mediterranean Sea, historical samples were genetically analysed.
  2. Nine samples with certain Mediterranean origin were collected from different European museums. DNA was extracted and ~600 bp of the mitochondrial DNA control region were amplified using eight overlapping species‐specific primer pairs. Sequences obtained were aligned with all the haplotypes globally known so far.
  3. Genetic analysis revealed the misidentification of one museum specimen. Among the remaining Mediterranean historical samples, three different haplotypes were recovered. Two of them previously observed only in South Africa and one described in both South African and Brazilian populations.
  4. Results suggest a genetic relationship between Mediterranean sand tiger sharks and those from the western Indian Ocean. According to previous studies, we hypothesized that, during the Pleistocene, the cold Benguela upwelling barrier was temporarily reduced allowing the passage of C. taurus individuals from the Indian to Atlantic Ocean. After the restoration of this phylogeographic barrier some individuals were trapped in the Atlantic Ocean and probably migrated northward colonizing the western African coasts and the Mediterranean Sea.
  相似文献   

20.
A drastic population change in Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) has been noted as being related to winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the Kuroshio Extension region. The former studies suggest two possible explanations. One is that temperature itself affects sardine. The other is that SST represents the environmental change of the Kuroshio Extension region and other causes directly affecting sardine. In this study, we found that sardine mortality from post‐larva to age 1 negatively correlated with the winter mixed layer depth (MLD) in the Kuroshio Extension region from 1979 to 1993. During the period of a deep winter mixed layer (during the early 1980s), sardine mortality was low, whereas mortality was high when the winter mixed layer was shallow (during the late 1980s to early 1990s). By using a lower trophic‐level ecosystem model forced by the observed time series of MLD, SST, light intensity and nutrient data, we found that the estimated spring zooplankton density drastically varies from year to year and has a significant negative correlation with sardine mortality. The inter‐annual variation of spring zooplankton density is caused by the winter MLD variation. During the deep winter mixed layer years, a phytoplankton bloom occurs in spring, whereas during the shallow winter mixed layer years, the bloom occurs in winter. The results of our study suggest that the decline in the Japanese sardine population during the late 1980s to early 1990s was due to an insufficient spring food supply in the Kuroshio Extension region where sardine larvae and juvenile are transported.  相似文献   

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