Review of climate change impacts on marine fish and shellfish around the UK and Ireland

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Productivity and recovery of forage fish under climate change and fishing: North Sea sandeel as a case study

Forage fish occupy a central position in marine food‐webs worldwide by mediating the transfer of energy and organic matter from lower to higher trophic levels. The lesser sandeel (Ammodytes marinus) is one of the ecologically and economically most important forage fish species in the North‐east Atlantic, acting as a key prey for predatory fish and sea birds, as well as supporting a large commercial fishery. In this case study, we investigate the underlying factors affecting recruitment and how these in turn affect productivity of the North Sea sandeel using long‐term data and modelling. Our results demonstrate how sandeel productivity in the central North Sea (Dogger Bank) depends on a combination of external and internal regulatory factors, including fishing and climate effects, as well as density dependence and food availability of the preferred zooplankton prey (Calanus finmarchicus and Temora longicornis). Furthermore, our model scenarios suggest that while fishing largely contributed to the abrupt stock decline during the late 1990s and the following period of low biomass, a complete recovery of the stock to the highly productive levels of the early 1980s would only be possible through changes in the surrounding ecosystem, involving lower temperatures and improved feeding conditions. To that end, we stress the need for ecosystem‐based management accounting for multiple internal and external factors occurring within the broader context of the ecosystem in which forage fish species, such as sandeel, play an important and integral part.     

Vulnerability of national economies to the impacts of climate change on fisheries

Anthropogenic global warming has significantly influenced physical and biological processes at global and regional scales. The observed and anticipated changes in global climate present significant opportunities and challenges for societies and economies. We compare the vulnerability of 132 national economies to potential climate change impacts on their capture fisheries using an indicator-based approach. Countries in Central and Western Africa (e.g. Malawi, Guinea, Senegal, and Uganda), Peru and Colombia in north-western South America, and four tropical Asian countries (Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan, and Yemen) were identified as most vulnerable. This vulnerability was due to the combined effect of predicted warming, the relative importance of fisheries to national economies and diets, and limited societal capacity to adapt to potential impacts and opportunities. Many vulnerable countries were also among the world's least developed countries whose inhabitants are among the world's poorest and twice as reliant on fish, which provides 27% of dietary protein compared to 13% in less vulnerable countries. These countries also produce 20% of the world's fish exports and are in greatest need of adaptation planning to maintain or enhance the contribution that fisheries can make to poverty reduction. Although the precise impacts and direction of climate-driven change for particular fish stocks and fisheries are uncertain, our analysis suggests they are likely to lead to either increased economic hardship or missed opportunities for development in countries that depend upon fisheries but lack the capacity to adapt.     

Impacts of climate change on snakehead fish value chains in the Lower Mekong Basin of Cambodia and Vietnam

ABSTRACT

The productive fisheries of the Lower Mekong Basin of Cambodia and Vietnam are essential to the food security and nutrition of 60 million people. Yet these fisheries, both culture and capture, are susceptible to the impacts of climate change. This article reports on a study undertaken to examine the vulnerability, as perceived by snakehead (Channa striata) fish farmers in Vietnam and fishers in Cambodia, to the impacts from climate change. Perceived impacts on various actors in the value chain are identified, as well as adaptation strategies currently being utilized and planned for the future. Recommendations are suggested to contribute to assisting snakehead farmers and fishers in adapting and preparing for the impacts of climate change.     

Potential movement of fish and shellfish stocks from the sub‐Arctic to the Arctic Ocean

An assessment of the potential for 17 fish or shellfish stocks or stock groups to move from the sub‐Arctic areas into the Arctic Ocean was conducted. A panel of 34 experts was convened to assess the impact of climate change on the potential movement of the 17 stocks or stock groups. The panel considered the exposure of species to climate change, the sensitivity of species to these changes and the adaptive capacity of each stock or stock group. Based on expert opinions, the potential for expansion or movement into the Arctic was qualitatively ranked (low potential, potential, high potential). It is projected that the Arctic Ocean will become ice‐free during the summer season, and when this happens new areas will open up for plankton production, which may lead to new feeding areas for fish stocks. Five stocks had a low potential to move to, or expand in, the high Arctic. Six species are considered as potential candidate species to move to, or expand in, the high Arctic. Six stocks had a high potential of establishing viable resident populations in the region. These six stocks exhibit life history characteristics that allow them to survive challenging environmental conditions that will continue to prevail in the north. This study suggests that several life history factors should be considered when assessing the potentiality of a species moving in response to changing climate conditions.     

Examining the knowledge base and status of commercially exploited marine species with the RAM Legacy Stock Assessment Database

Meta‐analyses of stock assessments can provide novel insight into marine population dynamics and the status of fished species, but the world’s main stock assessment database (the Myers Stock‐Recruitment Database) is now outdated. To facilitate new analyses, we developed a new database, the RAM Legacy Stock Assessment Database, for commercially exploited marine fishes and invertebrates. Time series of total biomass, spawner biomass, recruits, fishing mortality and catch/landings form the core of the database. Assessments were assembled from 21 national and international management agencies for a total of 331 stocks (295 fish stocks representing 46 families and 36 invertebrate stocks representing 12 families), including nine of the world’s 10 largest fisheries. Stock assessments were available from 27 large marine ecosystems, the Caspian Sea and four High Seas regions, and include the Atlantic, Pacific, Indian, Arctic and Antarctic Oceans. Most assessments came from the USA, Europe, Canada, New Zealand and Australia. Assessed marine stocks represent a small proportion of harvested fish taxa (16%), and an even smaller proportion of marine fish biodiversity (1%), but provide high‐quality data for intensively studied stocks. The database provides new insight into the status of exploited populations: 58% of stocks with reference points (n = 214) were estimated to be below the biomass resulting in maximum sustainable yield (B_MSY) and 30% had exploitation levels above the exploitation rate resulting in maximum sustainable yield (U_MSY). We anticipate that the database will facilitate new research in population dynamics and fishery management, and we encourage further data contributions from stock assessment scientists.     

Forecasting fish stock dynamics under climate change: Baltic herring (Clupea harengus) as a case study

Climate change and anthropogenic disturbances may affect marine populations and ecosystems through multiple pathways. In this study we present a framework in which we integrate existing models and knowledge on basic regulatory processes to investigate the potential impact of future scenarios of fisheries exploitation and climate change on the temporal dynamics of the central Baltic herring stock. Alternative scenarios of increasing sea surface temperature and decreasing salinity of the Baltic Sea from a global climate model were combined with two alternative fishing scenarios, and their direct and ecosystem‐mediated effects (i.e., through predation by cod and competition with sprat) on the herring population were evaluated for the period 2010–2050. Gradual increase in temperature has a positive impact on the long‐term productivity of the herring stock, but it has the potential to enhance the recovery of the herring stock only in combination with sustainable fisheries management (i.e., F_msy). Conversely, projections of herring spawning stock biomass (SSB) were generally low under elevated fishing mortality levels (F_high), comparable with those experienced by the stock during the 1990s. Under the combined effects of long‐term warming and high fishing mortality uncertainty in herring SSB projections was higher and increasing for the duration of the forecasts, suggesting a synergistic effect of fishery exploitation and climate forcing on fish populations dynamics. Our study shows that simulations of long‐term fish dynamics can be an informative tool to derive expectations of the potential long‐term impact of alternative future scenarios of exploitation and climate change.     

A critical analysis of the direct effects of dredging on fish

Dredging can have significant impacts on aquatic environments, but the direct effects on fish have not been critically evaluated. Here, a meta‐analysis following a conservative approach is used to understand how dredging‐related stressors, including suspended sediment, contaminated sediment, hydraulic entrainment and underwater noise, directly influence the effect size and the response elicited in fish across all aquatic ecosystems and all life‐history stages. This is followed by an in‐depth review summarizing the effects of each dredging‐related stressor on fish. Across all dredging‐related stressors, studies that reported fish mortality had significantly higher effect sizes than those that describe physiological responses, although indicators of dredge impacts should endeavour to detect effects before excessive mortality occurs. Studies examining the effects of contaminated sediment also had significantly higher effect sizes than studies on clean sediment alone or noise, suggesting additive or synergistic impacts from dredging‐related stressors. The early life stages such as eggs and larvae were most likely to suffer lethal impacts, while behavioural effects were more likely to occur in adult catadromous fishes. Both suspended sediment concentration and duration of exposure greatly influenced the type of fish response observed, with both higher concentrations and longer exposure durations associated with fish mortality. The review highlights the need for in situ studies on the effects of dredging on fish which consider the interactive effects of multiple dredging‐related stressors and their impact on sensitive species of ecological and fisheries value. This information will improve the management of dredging projects and ultimately minimize their impacts on fish.     

Review of climate change impacts on marine aquaculture in the UK and Ireland

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Relationship between fish assemblage and angler catch in the Sulejów Reservoir,central Poland,in the context of a warming climate

The Pilica River has warmed at a rate of 0.06°C per year since 1969, threatening the ecological services provided by the Sulejów Reservoir. Gillnet sampling revealed that the reservoir is inhabited by a cyprinid‐dominated fish assemblage with roach, Rutilus rutilus (L.) (42% of the total biomass), the dominant species. However, the interest of the anglers was primarily focused on common bream, Abramis brama (L.) (almost 65% of the catch), as revealed by the catch statistics (2004–2014). No direct evidence was found that the temperature increase had an influence on the recreational fishery or fish assemblage structure. On the other hand, changes in the fish assemblage that were reflected in angler catch composition were observed. A decrease in the catch of common bream in gillnets was accompanied by a shift in angler choices towards roach and other fish species. The sustainability of recreational fisheries is more likely to be influenced by changes in the economic status of society, water quality (toxic cyanobacteria blooms) and water management practices in Poland. The question arises about which species will dominate in the impoundment in the future if the warming trend continues and common carp, Cyprinus carpio L., stocking is maintained.     

A simple model for predicting ecological impacts of introduced aquatic organisms: a case study of common carp, Cyprinus carpio L., in the Sepik-Ramu River Basin, Papua New Guinea

Abstract Practical models for predicting the impacts of introduced biota are urgently required to assess the benefits and risks of introductions. The simple method described predicts the ecological consequences of an introduction through potential competition between species based on elementary niche classifications. The model's predictions are tested against field data for common carp, Cyprinus carpio L., which escaped from fish farms during a study of the feasibility of fish stock enhancement in a large river basin. Recorded effects of carp are based on pre- and post-carp gillnet catches, observations of local villagers, socio-economic censuses and other sources of data. The predicted ecological interactions of common carp are in broad agreement with those recorded. The method can assist pre-introduction assessments and is particularly useful where limited data exist. In this particular study, common carp have contributed significantly to an improved capture fishery by fortuitous accident; production from aquaculture was negligible. High niche overlap between carp and certain resident fish species is predicted and this may be of more consequence in highland than lowland regions. Organisms introduced/transferred for aquaculture should be assessed within a much wider forum. The intended impacts of an introduction/ transfer, which in the case study were entirely erroneous, is an area in need of considerable attention.     

A computer vision system to analyse the swimming behaviour of farmed fish in commercial aquaculture facilities: A case study using cage-held Atlantic salmon

Knowledge of fish behaviour plays an important role in aquaculture farm management. Video systems are the most common and cost-effective way of observing behaviours in commercial aquaculture operations. However long term observation is not feasible due to a limited ability to analyse footage manually. This paper describes preliminary findings obtained via computer vision software that was developed to automatically analyse fish movement and behaviours in aquaculture sea cages. Results show that the system is capable of detecting fish shapes in video recordings and from these shapes quantifying changes in swimming speed and direction continuously throughout the day. Also variations between days were detected and these may have been associated with the daily shift in the tidal cycle. The system has the potential to act as an alarm to farm operators, informing them about unusual fish behaviours on a continuous, real-time basis. It also has potential to assist in the evaluation of fish welfare.     

Potential impacts of climate change on growth and prey consumption of stream‐dwelling smallmouth bass in the central United States

Smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu, SMB) is a broadly distributed, economically important species in the USA and Canada. Although previous research has suggested that projected climate warming may allow SMB to thrive beyond their current northern distribution, little research has been devoted to the population‐level effects of climate change on warm‐water fishes, including SMB. We modelled the impacts of projected climate change on growth of stream‐dwelling SMB along a north–south gradient in the central USA. Using downscaled regional projections from three global climate models, we generated scenarios for thermal habitat change for four populations (in Oklahoma, Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota) and used bioenergetics simulations to estimate prey consumption and growth under future projections. Bioenergetics simulations showed that prey consumption is expected to increase in all populations with moderate stream warming (2–3 °C). Growth potential is predicted to increase by 3–17% if not limited by food availability with stream warming by 2060 and was most pronounced for southern populations. For each 1 °C increase in stream temperature, SMB consumption would be expected to increase by about 27% and growth would increase by about 6%. Due to implications for species interactions, population performance and regulation of local fisheries, a better understanding of how SMB populations will respond to climate change is recommended for effective management and conservation.     

Understanding marine park opposition: the relationship between social impacts,environmental knowledge and motivation to fish

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Spatial and temporal variations of sediment quality in and around fish cage farms: A case study of aquaculture in the Seto Inland Sea, Japan

ABSTRACT: Fish cage farming generates large amounts of organic waste in the form of unconsumed feed and fecal matter, resulting in sediment deterioration and a threat to its own sustainability. Field studies analysed the scale of the impact of fish cage farming on sediment quality, variability of impact and spread of sediment enrichment in the vicinity of a fish farm. Two fish culture sites near the Fukuyama area of the Seto Inland Sea of Japan were chosen for the study. There was a significant difference between the quality of the sediment in aquaculture and non-aquaculture areas. The sediment underlying the fish cage farms was found to be extremely reducing, acidic and sulfidic. Sediment ignition loss did not vary markedly with the season. However, the redox potential and acid volatile sulfide content of aquaculture areas did show some seasonal variation. Sediment encircling a 165 m radius from the center of a farm in Yokota was judged as organically enriched by fish farming. A variation in sediment quality within the two sites and also within the stations was observed. Based on sediment quality, the stations could be categorized as less affected, highly affected or moderately affected.     

Preliminary evidence of an endangered species benefiting from moderate climate warming: A palaeolimnological study of the charophyte Lychnothamnus barbatus

1. In a time of rapid environmental changes, identification of the effects of climate warming on charophytes (Characeae, Charophyta) will enable the optimization of conservation measures, especially for extremely rare species. Lychnothamnus barbatus is one of the rarest charophytes worldwide, which has decreased in the number of occupied sites over the last century. However, the recolonization of former sites has been observed in recent years (e.g. Lake Kuźnickie, Poland). The study aimed to analyse the effects of climatic changes and human pressure on the L. barbatus population.
2. Three 30 cm sediment cores were collected from minimum, average, and maximum depths of L. barbatus occurrence to determine the past vegetation composition. Sediment cores were dated using the radioisotopes lead-210, caesium-137, and carbon-14. A spatial analysis of the lake catchment changes during the last 120 years was also conducted.
3. The study demonstrated L. barbatus presence in Lake Kuźnickie at the beginning of the 16th century. However, a sharp increase in the proportion of this species in the vegetation community occurred in the 19th century and during climate warming at the end of the Little Ice Age. Factors that significantly influenced the present occurrence of the L. barbatus population included improvement in water quality and the oospore bank deposited in the bottom sediments.
4. This study is the first palaeoreconstruction in a modern lake dominated by L. barbatus. Based on the history of L. barbatus in Lake Kuźnickie after the end of the Little Ice Age, the positive effect of climate warming on the contemporary recovery of this charophyte is postulated.
5. The reaction of L. barbatus to climate warming appears to differ from commonly accepted scenarios for aquatic macrophytes because its recovery in the past and at present coincided with increases in air temperature. This research indicated the appropriate management and conservation practices for lakes with L. barbatus populations.

     

If you build it,they will go: A case study of stream fish diversity loss in an urbanizing riverscape

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Variation in the distribution of ocean shrimp (Pandalus jordani) recruits: links with coastal upwelling and climate change

In this analysis, an atypical northward shift in the distribution of age‐1 ocean shrimp (Pandalus jordani) recruits off Oregon in 2000 and 2002–2004 was linked to anomolously strong coastal upwelling winds off southern Oregon (42°N latitude) in April–July of the year of larval release (t?1). This is the first clear evidence that strong upwelling winds can depress local recruitment of ocean shrimp. Regression analysis confirmed a long‐term negative correlation between log_e of ocean shrimp recruitment and April sea level height (SLH) at Crescent City, California, in the year of larval release, for both northern and southern Oregon waters. The regional pattern of ocean shrimp catches and seasonal upwelling winds showed that, although the timing of the spring transition as reflected in April SLH drives ocean shrimp recruitment success off Oregon generally, the strength and consistency of spring upwelling limits the distribution of large concentrations of ocean shrimp at the southern end of the northern California/Oregon/Washington area. A northward shift in 1999 and 2001–03 in the northern edge of this ‘zone of maximum upwelling’ is the likely cause of the weak southern Oregon recruitment and resulting atypical distribution of ocean shrimp observed off Oregon in 2000 and 2002–04, with a return to a more typical catch distribution as spring upwelling moderated in subsequent years. It is noted that a northward shift in the conditions that produce strong and steady spring upwelling winds is consistent with many predictions of global climate models under conditions of global warming.     

A brown trout (Salmo trutta) population faces devastating consequences due to proliferative kidney disease and temperature increase: A case study from Austria

Proliferative kidney disease (PKD) is an emerging parasitic disease that affects wild and farmed salmonid fishes worldwide. Currently, it is widespread in Europe with records in many countries. This study assessed the status of PKD in the river Wulka, a small Austrian river, which was known to host a vital brown trout population despite having high water temperatures. Contrary to the initial hypothesis that the river was free from PKD, we observed an overall PKD prevalence of 92%. Noninfected fish were restricted to the uppermost river section. Twenty-two out of 87 PKD-positive fish of all age classes showed clinical signs, while five individuals exhibited signs of recovering from PKD infection. The severity of clinical signs was significantly dependent on the fish length and age, with smaller or younger individuals being more severely affected. Comparison of data from the earlier fish sampling events with those results from 2017 and 2018, together with the analyses of the pattern of water temperature since 2010, indicates that Wulka's brown trout population might become extinct in the near future.