Variability in meteorological droughts as pivotal mechanism for rice production over the middle gangetic plains

The meteorological drought dynamics and its impacts on rice productivity has been evaluated for the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) season using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) over the middle Gangetic plains (MGP) of Bihar. The meteorological drought over the ISMR period was found to be a recurring phenomenon coinciding with the rice growing season over Bihar. The rice crop has an intensive water requirement; therefore, it is significantly impacted by the meteorological droughts. In the present study, spatiotemporal characteristics viz. intensity, frequency, and probability of meteorological drought has been assessed along with an investigation for significant trends and detection of regime shift points to identify the impact of drought on rice production. For the purpose, SPI-4 derived from high resolution gridded daily rainfall data (0.25^°?×?0.25^°) from India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been considered to analyse the meteorological drought episodes over agro-climatic zones of Bihar from 1961 to 2019. The regime shifts were determined using the Rodionov test for the drought dynamics and production of rice in Bihar. A moderate to severe drought-prone zone was found over the zone BRZ3B; while zone BRZ2 and BRZ3A showed comparatively a greater number of mild drought events persisting with more than 70% probability of occurrence. An inkling of increasing dependency on groundwater is found, which is in turn governing the rice production regime. The present study shows there is a substantial need for climate resilience and food security policies incorporating the subtle linkage between SPI variability and crop production, especially over rice producing regions of the globe.

     

1961～2004海南岛干旱演变特征分析

根据1961￣2004年海南岛18个观测站的逐月降水资料,采用Z指数作为旱涝等级划分标准,计算了海南岛干旱强度与干旱覆盖范围,诊断了海南干旱强度与干旱范围的趋势和变化,并重点分析了2004年的干旱情况。研究发现在过去44年中最严重的干旱年份是1977年,其次是1969,1987和2004年。从长期趋势来看,全岛逐年干旱强度呈减弱趋势,干旱范围趋于减小。海南岛干旱覆盖百分率还存在明显年际和年代际振荡:在1987年之前以6～8年长周期的低频变化为主,并且周期逐渐加长,但1987年之后4￣5年短周期振荡明显。在2003年秋冬季持续干旱的基础上,2004年各季节干旱继续发展,2004年秋季干旱成为过去44年中干旱最严重的季节。     

Evaluating decision rules for dryland rotation crop selection

No-till dryland winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)-fallow systems in the central Great Plains have more water available for crop production than the traditional conventionally tilled winter wheat-fallow systems because of greater precipitation storage efficiency. That additional water is used most efficiently when a crop is present to transpire the water, and crop yields respond positively to increases in available soil water. The objective of this study was to evaluate yield, water use efficiency (WUE), precipitation use efficiency (PUE), and net returns of cropping systems where crop choice was based on established crop responses to water use while incorporating a grass/broadleaf rotation. Available soil water at planting was measured at several decision points each year and combined with three levels of expected growing season precipitation (70, 100, 130% of average) to provide input data for water use/yield production functions for seven grain crops and three forage crops. The predicted yields from those production functions were compared against established yield thresholds for each crop, and crops were retained for further consideration if the threshold yield was exceeded. Crop choice was then narrowed by following a rule which rotated summer crops (crops planted in the spring with most of their growth occurring during summer months) with winter crops (crops planted in the fall with most of their growth occurring during the next spring) and also rotating grasses with broadleaf crops. Yields, WUE, PUE, value-basis precipitation use efficiency ($PUE), gross receipts, and net returns from the four opportunity cropping (OC) selection schemes were compared with the same quantities from four set rotations [wheat-fallow (conventional till), (WF (CT)); wheat-fallow (no-till), (WF (NT)); wheat–corn (Zea mays L.)-fallow (no-till), (WCF); wheat–millet (Panicum miliaceum L.) (no-till), (WM)]. Water use efficiency was greater for three of the OC selection schemes than for any of the four set rotations. Precipitation was used more efficiently using two of the OC selection schemes than using any of the four set rotations. Of the four OC cropping decision methods, net returns were greatest for the method that assumed average growing season precipitation and allowed selection from all possible crop choices. The net returns from this system were not different from net returns from WF (CT) and WF (NT). Cropping frequency can be effectively increased in dryland cropping systems by use of crop selection rules based on water use/yield production functions, measured available soil water, and expected precipitation.     

Effect of season on the immunity of newly hatched broiler chicks reared in arid-hot climate

This study was conducted to investigate the effect of the environmental temperature on the immune response of exotic broiler chicks reared in arid-hot climate zone (the Sudan). Twenty eight broiler chicks (Lohman) were challenged with 1 mL of 10% sheep red blood cells suspension (10% SRBCs) at day 2 and day 13 during summer (June) and winter (January) seasons. At day 13 and day 20 sera were harvested and subjected to hemagglutination test to measure antibody titers against 10% SRBCs for primary and secondary immune response, respectively. In winter season the antibody titers (GMT) against 10% SRBCs for the secondary immune response was so high compared to that in summer season. Nevertheless, the antibody titers for primary immune response during winter and summer seasons were, somehow, identical although it was a little bit higher during winter season. The weights of the lymphoid organs (spleen, thymus and bursa of Fabricius) were significantly higher in the winter season compared to summer season irrespective of the age.     

吉林省半干旱区45年气候变化及基于Hybrid-Maize的玉米品种熟期选择

本研究分析吉林省西部半干旱地区1971~2015年气候要素变化特征,用Hybrid-Maize模型估算该区域品种熟期(GDD)不同玉米品种的产量潜力。结果表明,该区域近45年温度、降水和日照时数年均变化与玉米生长季变化趋势类似,但生长季变幅与年均值变幅差异较大,且生长季时间序列上突变点明显不同,温度和降水具有滞后性,日照时数具有超前性,其中,生长季温度增幅高于全年温度增幅,但突变时间滞后10年;长期年均降水波动性大,而生长季降水较全年呈现明显上升趋势,且2010年以来生长季均为较湿润阶段。生长季日照时数减少比年均减少趋势慢,为其下降速率的40%。以4月30日为适播期,种植密度60 000株/hm~2时,乾安、洮南、前郭推荐熟期相对较长品种(GDD=1656-1672),扶余、镇赉推荐熟期相对较短品种(GDD为1606和1500)。洮南、扶余、前郭玉米R/V值接近1.0,乾安和镇赉R/V超过1.15,利于获得较高产量。     

番石榴多酚成分分析及抑菌活性研究

采用UPLC-MS/MS法对番石榴多酚中部分酚类物质进行了定性分析。以抑菌圈直径为评价指标,测定了番石榴多酚的抑菌活性,并以金黄色葡萄球菌为指示菌,对其抑菌稳定性进行了研究。结果表明：番石榴多酚中含有没食子酸、儿茶素、槲皮素、原儿茶酸、山奈素和绿原酸等酚类物质。番石榴多酚对金黄色葡萄球菌、大肠埃希氏杆菌、单增李斯特菌、铜绿假单胞菌、腐败希瓦氏菌和枯草芽孢杆菌具有较好的抑制效果,除了单增李斯特菌和腐败希瓦氏菌的MIC低于5 mg/mL外,其余均低于2.5 mg/mL。番石榴多酚在pH4~5范围内处理后抑菌活性最强,其抑菌活性对温度、紫外照射具有稳定性,低盐度会促进其抑菌活性。     

浅谈抗旱耐深播高产玉米新品种的利用与开发

玉米杂交种在生产上的应用,大幅度提高了玉米产量,而地处干旱少雨的华北地区,则由于十年九春旱,现有品种难以保证玉米适时下种、高产稳产,直接制约着旱地玉米生产的发展。我所利用具有长根茎特性的印地安蓝粒玉米种质,培育出的抗旱耐深播高产玉米新品种,播深20cm能正常出苗,对我国北方干旱、半干旱地区春播玉米生产的发展有着十分重要的意义。春旱不误适时探墒深播保全苗,伏旱深层根系有水“喝”,从品种上解决了千百年来旱地玉米生产发展缓慢、产量不高不稳的老大难问题。     

冬季灌溉与桂味荔枝成花率的关系初探

2009年底至2010年初和2010年底至2011年初的连续2个冬季（每年12月至翌年的2月），通过提前搭建通风透光的遮雨棚，防止雨水淋到处理树上，模仿常年冬季自然的土壤干旱，再在干旱的遮雨棚内和露天果园里分别进行了1～4次、1～6次的不同灌溉处理，研究了桂味荔枝果园不同时段的地表水分变化与成花率的关系。结果表明：灌溉（含自然雨水灌溉）时间越早，灌溉次数越多，成花率就越高。2010年1月中旬以后的灌溉促花处理，成花很少；2011年2月中旬以后灌溉的处理，成花也很少。文章对“冬季干旱有利于荔枝成花”的传统观念进行了讨论, 提出“冬季适时、适度湿润，有利于桂味荔枝成花”的观点。     

Critical precipitation period for dryland maize production

Grain yields for dryland maize (Zea mays L.) production in the semi-arid Great Plains of the United States can be unpredictable because of the erratic nature of growing season precipitation. Because of the high input costs for maize production, farmers need to have a tool that will help them assess the risk associated with dryland maize production. The objectives of this work were to determine the critical period for precipitation during the maize growing season and to develop a relationship between critical period precipitation and maize yield to use as a tool to quantify expected yield variability associated with dryland maize production in this region. Maize yield data were collected at Akron, CO from two dryland cropping systems experiments (1984–2009) in which maize was grown in a 3-year winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)–maize–fallow rotation. Yields were correlated with weekly precipitation amounts from planting to harvest in search of the period of time in which yield was most influenced by precipitation. Soil water contents at planting were measured either by gravimetric sampling or by neutron attenuation. Yields were found to be most closely correlated with precipitation occurring during the 6-week period between 16 July and 26 August. The data separated into two linear relationships defined by whether the sum of available soil water at planting and May precipitation was less than or greater than 250 mm. These two linear relationships between precipitation during this critical period and yield were used with long-term precipitation records to determine the probability of obtaining a maize yield of at least 2500 kg ha⁻¹ (generally considered to be a break-even yield) at three locations across the central Great Plains precipitation gradient. This analysis quantified the production risk associated with the highly variable corn yields that result from erratic summer precipitation in this region.     

Winter and summer performance of potato (Solanum tuberosum) in isohyperthermic regimes

Potato production in isohyperthermic temperature regimes (mean annual soil temperature higher than 22°C) has been considered impractical physiologically and economically. However, recent experiments with potatoes (var. Kennebec) on a clayey, kaolinitic, isohyperthermic Tropeptic Eutrustox of Hawaii during the winters of 1980 and 1981 and the summer of 1980, indicate that although seasonal variation in the tropics is minimal when compared to temperate regions, there is enough of a distinction in temperature that potato production is possible and favored during the cooler winter months. Soil temperatures, measured at 20-cm depth, in irrigated plots range from 18 to 20°C in winter and 24 to 26°C in summer. Tuber initiation in winter and summer began at 40 and 55 days after planting, respectively. Maturity was delayed by 20 days in summer. Yields in irrigated plots were 36,000 in winter and 25,000 kg/ha in summer; in nonirrigated plots, yields were 14,600 in winter and 7,900 kg/ha in summer. Nutrient uptake and water and energy use were less efficient in summer. The results indicated that winter is the most suitable season for potato production in the warm tropics.     

淮河流域冬小麦晚霜冻时空演变分析

为掌握气候持续变暖背景下淮河流域晚霜冻害的变化规律,基于1960-2016年61个气象站点的逐日地面0cm最低气温数据,计算霜冻频次、强度和变异系数,构建霜冻害危险指数,分析了淮河流域冬小麦生长季晚霜冻时空变化。结果表明:(1)57年中晚霜冻出现在3月11日至4月15日,整体呈提前趋势,速率达到-2.49d·年-1(P<0.05),晚霜冻的提前结束使冬小麦灌浆停滞和籽粒发芽力丧失的风险降低。(2)在冬小麦生长季延长的背景下,57年中轻度、中度、重度晚霜冻的频次都呈现减少趋势,变化倾向率分别为-9.14次·年-1(P<0.01)、-1.17次·年-1(P>0.05)、-5.81次·年-1(P<0.01)。年代变化上,重霜冻在灌浆至成熟阶段的频次在1980s上升趋势最显著,倾向率为6.73次·年-1(P<0.05)。1961-1990年中霜冻在拔节期的频次增加趋势最显著,倾向率为1.80次·年-1(P<0.05);1981-2010年重霜冻在拔节期的频次减少趋势最显著,倾向率为-3.46次·年-1(P<0.01)。(3)冬小麦晚霜冻在不同的生长阶段空间分异较大,呈不同分布模式。以开始拔节的日期为起点,高风险区和较高风险区在拔节后(1～5d)所占面积百分比最大,分别达到0.63%、80.68%。中风险区在抽穗至开花阶段(12～15d)面积百分比最大(81.68%),较低风险区在灌浆至成熟阶段(16～57d)占比最大(57.49%)。不同程度的晚霜冻频次在不同的时间段减少速率不同,在不同的生长阶段空间分布差异较大。     

皖北砂姜黑土地冬小麦生育期尺度干旱指标研究

为给砂姜黑土区小麦干旱灾害监测、预警、评估等工作提供参考,利用代表站点的气象资料、冬小麦生育期观测资料和麦田不同时期土壤水分测定资料,采用平均值、点聚图、有序样本最优聚类等方法,建立了皖北砂姜黑土地冬小麦生育期尺度的土壤水分、降水量负距平百分率、麦田水分盈亏率干旱指标,并分为轻旱、中旱、重旱和特旱4个等级。经检验,降水量负距平百分率指标和水分亏缺率指标的平均正确率均在80%以上,2种指标对重旱和长期干旱具有较强的解释能力。同时,给出了不同生育期发生不同等级干旱时的减产率参考值。     

Seasonal distribution of herbage mass and nutritive value of Prairiegrass (Bromus catharticus Vahl)

A reliable supply of herbage is a crucial feature of forage‐based livestock systems. Forage resources with winter‐active growth habits can help extend the growing season in early spring and late autumn in regions with mild‐winter conditions while drought‐ and heat‐tolerant plants help meet herbage needs during summer in humid temperate regions. The prairiegrass (Bromus catharticus, Vahl) cultivars, Grassland Dixon and Grasslands Lakota, provide resistance to foliar disease and cold in addition to sustained productivity when soil moisture is low, and could be useful over a wide range of growing conditions. The cultivars were sown in spring or summer to determine seasonal distribution of productivity and nutritive value of herbage grown in a cool‐temperate region. Stands established rapidly regardless of sowing time or cultivar and were virtually pure prairiegrass once plants were well‐established. Stand composition of broadcast sowings tended to be stable in subsequent growing seasons, whereas the amount of prairiegrass varied in no‐till stands. In the growing seasons after establishment, cumulative dry matter (DM) yield of Lakota was similar regardless of when it was sown, whereas DM yield of Dixon differed with sowing time and was less in spring‐ than summer‐planted stands. Rapid stand establishment, significant late‐season yield, consistent concentrations of crude protein, non‐structural carbohydrate and total digestible nutrients in herbage, and dominance of sward composition, suggest that prairiegrass cultivars, Dixon and Lakota, are excellent resources for forage‐based livestock production systems in humid temperate conditions.     

Climate Change and Its Repercussions for the Potato Supply Chain

Since the onset of the industrial revolution, in 1750, the concentration of carbon dioxide rose from 290 to 380 parts per million. Especially during the last decennia, the effects of increased greenhouse gases concentrations are being felt. The last 14 years worldwide contained the warmest 13 years since weather recording started. For southern Europe, the major effects reported by the International Panel on Climate Change are reduced water availability and a shorter suitable winter time slot for potato production. For northern Europe, climate change will bring a decreasing number of days with frost and a lengthening of the growing season. It will be associated with more rain in winter and less in summer, with more erratic but heavier rain storms. For potato production in Mediterranean and Sahelian types of climate, during the heat-free period of the year, yields will go down as the suitable period becomes shorter. With a higher evaporative demand, the resource water will be used less efficiently. Potato yields in temperate climates may increase—provided that water for irrigation is available—due to a longer growing season and higher carbon dioxide concentrations in the air. The quality may be affected as larger tubers with a higher dry matter concentration are expected. Problems with pests and diseases are expected to increase with a longer growing season at higher temperature which allows more cycles of multiplication and greater pressure. Late blight will also have a longer period to build up and erratic rains will make control more difficult. Seed production with increased vector pressure will become more costly because fewer field generations will follow the rapid multiplication stage and seed production may move further north. Present potato areas in Europe, however, are more affected by economic factors such as inadequate farm size, changing habits, and remoteness of markets than by climate determined suitability of growing conditions. To remain competitive, the industry will have to invest in strengthening existing production areas and assess the potential of new potato production areas (further north), in new varieties adapted to extremes in weather (heat, drought), in irrigation equipment, in equipment better adapted to wet soil conditions to assure accessibility, and in improved stores with more stores equipped with refrigeration as higher winter temperatures more frequently will make it impossible to keep ware potatoes cool with ambient air. Assessment of both climate change and market liberalization in Europe shows other roads ahead than when only climate effects are taken into consideration.     

Arsenic in irrigated water,soil, and rice: perspective of the cropping seasons

Arsenic contamination of shallow groundwater and related health problems are threats for the millions in endemic regions of West Bengal. Contamination of rice grain creates the food chain pathway of mineral arsenic besides drinking water contamination. Present study concentrated on association of arsenic concentration in irrigated water, paddy field soil and rice with the cropping seasons. Irrigated ground water arsenic concentration decreased significantly (p = 0.007) from summer (median 0.42 mg l^?1) to winter (median 0.35 mg l^?1). Carried over effect created significant decrease (p = 0.03) of paddy field soil arsenic concentration from summer (median 8.35 mg kg^?1) to winter (median 6.17 mg kg^?1). Seasonal variation was observed in rice straw (p = 0.03) but not in husk (p = 0.91). Arsenic concentration decreased significantly (p = 0.05) in the rice grains collected in winter season (median 0.23 mg kg^?1) than the samples collected in the summer season (median 0.30 mg kg^?1). In conclusion, seasonal effects need to be considered in case of human health risk assessment from arsenic consumption.     

施肥和降水年型对土壤供水量和大豆水分利用效率的影响

基于中国科学院海伦农田生态系统国家野外科学观测研究站的长期定位试验,利用海伦站内气象数据和中子仪测定的土壤水分数据,分析了丰水年(2006)、平水年(2008)和枯水年(2001和2004)条件下的无肥(CK)、化肥(NP)和化肥+有机肥(NPM)处理对大豆耗水量、土壤供水量和大豆水分利用效率的影响。从4 a的平均值分析,大豆耗水强度最大时期为开花-鼓粒期。施肥增加了大豆的耗水量,与CK相比,NP和NPM的耗水量分别增加了0.92%和2.21%,其中施肥增加大豆耗水量的效应在枯水年表现得更为显著。大豆消耗的水分除了大气降水以外,还有土壤供水量,在降水最为缺乏的大豆鼓粒-成熟期,与CK相比,NP和NPM土壤供水量分别增加了11.72%和23.48%。在观测的4 a中,大豆水分利用效率均表现为CK相似文献   

Cropping sequence and tillage system influences annual crop production and water use in semiarid Montana,USA

Available water is typically the biggest constraint to spring wheat production in the northern Great Plains of the USA. The most common rotation for spring wheat is with summer fallow, which is used to accrue additional soil moisture. Tillage during fallow periods controls weeds, which otherwise would use substantial amounts of water, decreasing the efficiency of fallow. Chemical fallow and zero tillage systems improve soil water conservation, allowing for increased cropping intensity. We conducted a field trial from 1998 through 2003 comparing productivity and water use of crops in nine rotations under two tillage systems, conventional and no-till. All rotations included spring wheat, two rotations included field pea, while lentil, chickpea, yellow mustard, sunflower, and safflower were present in single rotations with wheat. Growing season precipitation was below average most years, resulting in substantial drought stress to crops not following fallow. Preplant soil water, water use, and spring wheat yields were generally greater following summer fallow than wheat recropped after wheat or alternate crops. Water use and yield of wheat following summer fallow was greater than for chickpea or yellow mustard, the only other crops in the trial that followed summer fallow. Field pea performed best of all alternate crops, providing yields comparable to those of recropped spring wheat. Chickpea, lentil, yellow mustard, safflower, and sunflower did not perform well and were not adapted to this region, at least during periods of below average precipitation. Following summer fallow, and despite drought conditions, zero tillage often provided greater amounts of soil water at planting compared to conventional tillage.     

Climate change impacts on agriculture and irrigation in the Lower Mekong Basin

According to hydrological simulations by the Mekong River Commission, average annual flow of the Mekong will not change significantly despite climate change. However, they projected increased variability in wet and dry season flows, which will tend to increase the flood and drought risks to crops. To learn the implications of climate change for rice farming in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB), a lower part of the Basin from China-Lao PDR border to the South China Sea, climate and hydrological figures related to rice production were compared in between the baseline in 1985–2000 and the climate change scenario in 2010–2050. Special attention was given to their 10 and 90 % exceedance values, which are rough equivalence of 10 and 90 % cumulative probabilities, to see changes in the frequency and extent of extreme weather events. Major findings of this study include the followings: (1) evapo-transpirations will increase in both average and 90 % cumulative probability values, raising irrigation demand. (2) Deviation of the annual rainfall will become larger, causing water shortage in reservoirs more frequently in the future. (3) The transplanting date of rain-fed rice will be delayed more likely due to insufficient precipitation in the early wet season, which may result in decreasing rice production. (4) Longer dry spells will be observed during the wet season, raising the drought risk to rain-fed rice. (5) These changes will be generally observed across the LMB, while the extent of the changes varies among regions.

     

Climate change impacts on agriculture and irrigation in the Lower Mekong Basin

According to hydrological simulations by the Mekong River Commission, average annual flow of the Mekong will not change significantly despite climate change. However, they projected increased variability in wet and dry season flows, which will tend to increase the flood and drought risks to crops. To learn the implications of climate change for rice farming in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB), a lower part of the Basin from China-Lao PDR border to the South China Sea, climate and hydrological figures related to rice production were compared in between the baseline in 1985–2000 and the climate change scenario in 2010–2050. Special attention was given to their 10 and 90 % exceedance values, which are rough equivalence of 10 and 90 % cumulative probabilities, to see changes in the frequency and extent of extreme weather events. Major findings of this study include the followings: (1) evapo-transpirations will increase in both average and 90 % cumulative probability values, raising irrigation demand. (2) Deviation of the annual rainfall will become larger, causing water shortage in reservoirs more frequently in the future. (3) The transplanting date of rain-fed rice will be delayed more likely due to insufficient precipitation in the early wet season, which may result in decreasing rice production. (4) Longer dry spells will be observed during the wet season, raising the drought risk to rain-fed rice. (5) These changes will be generally observed across the LMB, while the extent of the changes varies among regions.     

Modelling the impact of climate change on woody plant population dynamics in South African savanna

Background

In Southern Africa savannas climate change has been proposed to alter rainfall, the most important environmental driver for woody plants. Woody plants are a major component of savanna vegetation determining rangeland condition and biodiversity. In this study we use a spatially explicit, stochastic computer model to assess the impact of climate change on the population dynamics of Grewia flava, a common, fleshy-fruited shrub species in the southern Kalahari. Understanding the population dynamics of Grewia flava is a crucial task, because it is widely involved in the shrub/bush encroachment process, a major concern for rangeland management due to its adverse effect on livestock carrying capacity and biodiversity.

Results

For our study we consider four climate change scenarios that have been proposed for the southern Kalahari for the coming decades: (1) an increase in annual precipitation by 30–40%, (2) a decrease by 5–15%, (3) an increase in variation of extreme rainfall years by 10–20%, (4) and increase in temporal auto-correlation, i.e. increasing length and variation of periodic rainfall oscillations related to El Niño/La Niña phenomena. We evaluate the slope z of the time-shrub density relationship to quantify the population trend. For each climate change scenario we then compared the departure of z from typical stable population dynamics under current climatic conditions. Based on the simulation experiments we observed a positive population trend for scenario (1) and a negative trend for scenario (2). In terms of the projected rates of precipitation change for scenario (3) and (4) population dynamics were found to be relatively stable. However, for a larger increase in inter-annual variation or in temporal auto-correlation of rainfall population trends were negative, because favorable rainfall years had a limited positive impact due to the limited shrub carrying capacity.

Conclusions

We conclude that a possible increase in precipitation will strongly facilitate shrub encroachment threatening savanna rangeland conditions and regional biodiversity. Furthermore, the negative effects found for positive auto-correlated rainfall support current ecological theory stating that periodically fluctuating environments can reduce population viability because species suffer disproportionately from poor environmental conditions.