Why did the 1980s' reform of collective forestland tenure in southern China fail?

Both the reform of forestland tenure and timber market liberalization are important for forest resources management worldwide. This paper employs a unique provincial level panel dataset of 8 National Forest Resource Inventories and related price and investment data to estimate the effects on the forest of China's reforms of collective forestland tenure and timber prices in the 1980s. The system Generalized Method of Moments with robustness (controlling for endogeneity) and fixed effects models were used to identify the determinants of these reforms for the collective forest region of southern China. Our empirical results indicate that these two reforms jointly caused deforestation and forest degradation. As much as 13.5% of the total forest area was lost, and 14.9% of the forest volume was removed. Deforestation in the 1980s was followed with widespread negative long-term impacts on forest growth and afforested area. These policy failures suggest the important lesson that a well-conceived framework for monitoring and regulation needs to be in place for successfully implemented reforms.     

Do Provincial Forest Cover Changes Follow The Same Path in China? Evidence From 29 Provincial Regions During 1978–2013

China has undergone forest transition at the national level during the past decades. Previous studies, which have used econometric models with restrictive assumptions of slope homogeneity across provinces, might present statistically biased results on provincial forest cover change. This paper aims to examine whether provincial forest cover changes follow the same path in China by using an up-to-date panel data on forest cover rates for 29 provincial regions from 1978 to 2013 and an econometric model allowing for slope heterogeneity across provinces. Empirical results suggest that forest cover changed along U-shaped curves in most provinces, but there is no “one size fit all” curve for these provinces, whose forest cover rates at the forest transition point ranged from less than 1% to more than 40% and per capita GDPs varied from 2,114 CNY to 28,403 CNY (in 2013 CNY). In future study, both similarities and differences in forest cover change across provinces should be taken into account, main provincial contributors of national forest cover change needs to be identified, and an extended model that incorporates more explanatory variables affecting deforestation, reforestation or afforestation should be adopted to comprehensively investigate the mechanism underlying forest cover change in China.     

Market analysis for timber and forest products in China

lntroductionChina'sterritoryisvast,buttheforestedareaisless.About29%areaofChinaisdesertandbaremOuntains(Zhangetal.1997).ThefourthnationaIforestsurvey,whichwasconductedbytheMinistryofForestryin1989~1993,indicatesthat133.7millionhm2or13.92%oftheIandareaofChinaareforest.Thestockoflivingtreesis11.785bilIionm',ofwhich1o.1biIIionisinforest.Thenetgrowthofstandingvolumeiso.4biIIionm3peryear,whiIethecutisO.3billionm',ofwhichatleastonethirdisfarfueIwood.Sotheforestresourcesarenotrich,forestcoveri…     

森林认证对森林转型的影响——来自发展中国家的经验证据

森林转型理论总结了长期以来各国实现森林恢复的影响因素与作用机制。20世纪90年代以来,森林认证作为促进森林可持续经营的市场机制在世界范围内逐渐展开。文中基于1990-2010年76个发展中国家的面板数据,运用分位数回归方法定量分析森林认证对森林转型的影响。研究结果表明,森林认证对森林面积和森林蓄积量都具有显著的正向影响,且在森林资源相对缺乏的发展中国家影响更大;研究还发现,人口密度和人均GDP对森林面积和森林蓄积量具有显著的负向影响,而造林面积、林产品进口额以及非初级产品出口比重等对森林面积和森林蓄积量都具有显著的正向影响。     

The legally allowable versus the informally practicable in Bolivia’s domestic timber market

We analyze legality in the forest sector in Bolivia, focusing particularly on the domestic timber value chain in the northern Bolivian Amazon. Bolivia adopted wide-reaching forest, land and democratic regulatory changes since the mid-1990s that were partly intended to reduce illegal logging and related practices. The new forest regulations, in turn, led to new illegal practices because implementation and sanctioning were poor, but also because new forest and land regulations were inadequate and often contradictory. In response, the government and various forest agencies adopted new measures to address the new illegal practices. These forest regulatory and forest policy renovations and modifications of the last two decades are, for instance, reflected in the domestic timber market of the northern Bolivian Amazon, a region that relies heavily on the forest sector. The paper analyzes Bolivia’s regulatory changes that were relevant for legality in the forest sector and the multiple modifications that were made to address shortcomings of these reforms. It also analyses legality in the domestic timber value chain in northern Bolivia. The new actors involved in especially the domestic timber value chain have moved away from formal and legal mechanisms to benefit from timber that grows on their land and forests to practices that were not considered or actually shunned in the law and that appear difficult to regulate. Unless these new practices are recognized adequately in a new forestry law, some of the production and trade of the timber value chain will likely continue to operate at the margin of legality.     

Factors influencing the loss of forest cover in bangladesh: An analysis from socioeconomic and demographic perspectives

Some studies have attributed forest shrinkage to population growth, economic development, conversion of forest land to agricultural use and harvesting of trees for timber and fuelwood. But the statistical support for these hypotheses is not strong. This paper attempts to test the above hypotheses statistically in the case of Bangladesh. Factor analysis extracted 4 important factors—(a) exploitation of forests for timber, fuelwood, tea, and shrimp production, (b) demographic pressure in agriculture, (c) economic development, and (d) expansion of crop lands—as causes of deforestation. The statistical test supports the hypotheses that the exploitation of forests for timber, fuelwood, tea and shrimp production, and conversion of forests to crop lands have a negative influence on forest cover. Economic development and demographic pressure in agriculture are also negatively correlated with forest cover. Results of regression analysis show the conversion of forests to agricultural land is the most important cause of deforestation. Other important causes, in order of their relative importance, are the relative price of forest products, population growth, economic development, demographic pressure in agriculture, increasing production of shrimps, export of tea and shrimps, increasing production of timber and fuelwood, and expansion of tea lands. The statistical tests support the above relationships.     

National Forest Policy in India: Critique of Targets and Implementation

For any country, the forest policy is an important guideline to maintain forest resources and their interaction with other land uses. India devised its first National Forest Policy (NFP) back in 1894. There has been a paradigm shift from timber production to forest conservation followed by community-based agroforestry and social forestry bringing a change in perspective towards forest resources. This change has been socio-economic, cultural and ecological. Since the 1952 NFP, there has been an advocacy for 33% forest cover with a 60% forest cover in mountainous and hilly regions. This objective was reiterated in the NFP 1988 and also confirmed in the National Forestry Commission report in 2006. This paper reviews the probable reasons for these targets. This paper also analyzes forest cover trends at state level and assesses the likelihood of meeting the prescribed policy targets under present perspective of land use practices. Only three Indian states meet the prescribed policy, while three more have the potential to do so, if their state wasteland area is afforested. Among the rest, a few states may achieve the 33% goal provided land conversion to tree cover is not hindered, and adequate resources are available at state level. The Planning Commission (XI Five-year Plan, 2007–12) has emphasized inclusion of other natural ecosystems (including treeless areas and trees outside forests) to forest cover. The paper also examines the above prescribed targets in light of the Planning Commission recommendations. It is argued that that the NFP should be re-visited and revised to meet the targets, along with setting a more realistic and attainable target for Indian forest and tree cover.     

基于卫星遥感数据空中抽样的大尺度森林资源动态监测

为监测大尺度宏观性森林资源动态变化,以SPOT5和ALOS高空间分辨率卫星遥感数据为源数据,辅以相关调查资料,在GIS支持下,采用空中抽样的方法,在遥感图像上布设样地,通过目视判读方法确定样地的土地类型、优势树种(组)等,据此计算森林面积和构造土地类型转移矩阵。根据历史调查资料分析得到森林类型单位面积蓄积量,并以此来计算各类林木蓄积量,从而实现研究区域森林面积、蓄积的动态监测。应用结果表明,在具备高空间分辨率遥感数据以及历史调查资料较丰富的情况下,该方法具有工作量小、精度高,且易于进行动态分析的特点,不但适用于大尺度宏观性森林资源监测,也适用于中尺度(如县级行政区域)的森林资源动态宏观监测。     

Conditions of forest transition in Asian countries

This study identifies the important factors that contribute to or inhibit forest transitions in nine Asian countries: China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Republic of Korea, Philippines, and Vietnam. A qualitative comparative analysis method was used to determine which conditions or combinations of conditions led to or prevented a forest transition. Under the condition of public ownership with no private forest tenure or ownership of forest land, there was no instance of forest transition among the nine countries studied. Under the condition of non-liberal timber trade policies, there was no instance of forest transition in the countries studied. The results of this analysis suggest that for a forest transition to occur, the country should liberalize timber import and provide forest tenure to the private sector. Based on these results, we argue that in order for a forest transition to take place or for REDD + to be effective, the state should allow for private sector to participate in forest management and create market conditions that meet the demand for timber via trade policy alignment.     

中美贸易摩擦对双边木质林产品贸易的影响

中美贸易摩擦是中美经济关系中的重要问题。2018年中美贸易摩擦爆发后,双边经贸关系曲折不断,木质林产品贸易面临极大考验。文中在梳理2015—2020年中美双边木质林产品贸易数据的基础上,分析贸易摩擦对双边木质林产品贸易的影响。结果显示,中美贸易摩擦对双边贸易规模具有较大影响,贸易总额、进口额和出口额均大幅下降;木家具和人造板等木质林产品贸易受到较大冲击,双方短期内均难以找到替代市场;中国从美国进口原木和锯材大幅下降,但中国木材供应和木材安全未受到威胁。未来,建议从增加国内木材供应、拓展替代市场、优化林业产业结构、建立国际国内双循环的林产品市场方面积极应对贸易摩擦。     

森林生态系统历史变迁的经济学解释

人类经济的发展从来就是用相对丰富的资源替代相对稀缺的资源.从采集渔猎,到刀耕火种,最后进入永久农业的过程,从经济学角度分析就是在技术不断更新下人造资本取代自然资本的过程.历史上一直是原始林被次生林和农地取代,只是在近百年来,许多国家和地区相继出现林地取代农地的现象.人工林也成为木材生产的主要来源,同时还相继出现许多专门为人类提供生态服务的森林.森林变迁主要原因是农业技术革新和人口变化导致农产品、林产品以及森林资源生态服务的相对价值变化的结果.本文用美国、新西兰以及中国的海南岛为例来验证这一原理,从经济学的角度提出对未来森林生态系统的展望.     

Effect of land prices,transportation costs,and site productivity on timber investment returns for pine plantations in Colombia

The relative importance of land costs, site quality, and forest location are major concerns in forestry investments, but little research has been done to assess the impacts of these or other factors on financial returns. In response to this issue, the effects of land prices, wood transportation costs, site productivity, and discount rates on timber investment returns for pine plantations in the Andean Region in Colombia were estimated. For all the scenarios analyzed, the internal rate of return varied between 6.4 and 15.6%. High site quality with high growth rates were profitable in all scenarios at real discount rates ranging from 8 to 12%, but low site qualities seldom had positive net present values. Less expensive land and locations close to mills had better rates of return. More distant locations, poor quality sites, or areas with high land costs generally did not meet the discount hurdle rates. Site quality, which is the factor most easily manipulated by intensive forest management and improved technology, was substantially more important than land prices and transportation differences in determining timber investment returns.     

森林生态资源配置中的市场失灵及其对策

森林生态系统是地球上最大的陆地生态系统。森林生态体系建设中的公益林,具有公共物品非排他性和非排斥性的特征,由此带来的外在性是市场失灵的一个重要因素,它将导致生态资源配置的长期低效。只有较好地化解市场失灵,才能有效地协调生态效益与经济效益,确保我国森林生态体系建设的优质与高效。本文通过对森林生态建设中市场失灵的分析,提出了产权结合,科斯定理,生态质量等级价格等对策,以修正市场的部分失灵。并探讨了木材价格变动对生态供给的影响,进而提出当木材价格变动时应适时调整生态质量价格,以保证有效的生态供给     

Effects of forest taxation and amenity preferences on nonindustrial private forest owners

The effects of profit and land value tax on harvesting decisions of nonindustrial private forest owners are investigated. We use a model of a utility-maximizing forest owner with amenity preferences for timber, which extends the basic two-period harvesting model to include both thinning and clear-cutting harvests. It is demonstrated that with no amenity preference, the profit and land value taxes are neutral to clear-cutting and thinning decisions. Under small to medium amenity preferences, the profit tax decreases the optimal clear-cutting volumes. However, the effect on thinning may be positive or negative, depending on the amenity preference level. The total effect of the profit tax on the short-run timber supply is negative. The effects of the land value tax contrast with those of the profit tax. Also, a tax regime with a lowered profit tax rate combined with a land value tax is analysed. It is shown to be able to bring Pareto-improvement to a regime that uses a higher profit tax but no land value tax.     

Loss function analysis of private forest owners’ timber price change expectations

Loss function analysis was introduced to timber market price analysis. Methods found in Bayesian statistical decision analysis were applied to expectations of market price changes. These were obtained from a forest owner survey conducted in Finland in 2009. Forecast errors of heterogeneous price expectations of the individual private forest owners were derived with observed price changes in six different timber price regions. The forecast errors were complemented with random number simulations to control for unobserved response heterogeneity. The properties and estimation of generalized loss functions – LIN-EX and flexible loss functions – allowing for asymmetry in individual forecast errors were introduced into the analysis. Estimation results for different price regions implied that forest owners’ perceived costs related to positive forecast errors of negative price changes that took place in 2009 were larger than those related to negative errors. This under-prediction vs. over-prediction asymmetry was large in some price regions. The forest owners exhibited an aversion to losses reflected in price expectations errors in the year 2009. The observed loss aversion means that forest owners were cautious in their selling decisions during periods of declining market prices. This has a negative impact on the recovery of slack timber markets.     

Erratum to: Effects of forest taxation and amenity preferences on nonindustrial private forest owners

The effects of profit and land value tax on harvesting decisions of nonindustrial private forest owners are investigated. We use a model of a utility-maximizing forest owner with amenity preferences for timber, which extends the basic two-period harvesting model to include both thinning and clear-cutting harvests. It is demonstrated that with no amenity preference, the profit and land value taxes are neutral to clear-cutting and thinning decisions. Under small to medium amenity preferences, the profit tax decreases the optimal clear-cutting volumes. However, the effect on thinning may be positive or negative, depending on the amenity preference level. The total effect of the profit tax on the short-run timber supply is negative. The effects of the land value tax contrast with those of the profit tax. Also, a tax regime with a lowered profit tax rate combined with a land value tax is analysed. It is shown to be able to bring Pareto-improvement to a regime that uses a higher profit tax but no land value tax.     

Large scale biotic damage impacts on forest ecosystem services

Insect outbreaks are natural phenomena that play a critical role in the development, senescence, and rebirth of forests. However, the damage caused by large-scale epidemics can have landscape scale consequences that are often poorly understood. The recent mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak in Canada has impacted a record >18.5 million hectares of pine forests, placing forest values at risk and significantly impacting forest-dependent communities within the region. To assess this impact, an ecosystem service-based approach was applied. Based on land cover information and monitoring data, four ecosystem services were assessed and mapped: merchantable timber, water provisioning, aboveground carbon storage, and vegetation diversity (supporting habitat). Timber is the most impacted provisioning ecosystem service followed by water provisioning, with peak stream flow in affected watersheds being positively related to mortality percent. Effects on carbon storage are substantial, with 20% of total timber aboveground carbon in dead pine trees. These effects may be mitigated, however, by the growth response of residual live trees and forest regeneration. The potential vegetation diversity showed a positive response to MPB-caused tree mortality. The results of our study may help with setting management priorities in response to large-scale biotic damage in forests in British Columbia and elsewhere.     

对发展我国速生丰产林有关问题的思考

本文在明确速生丰产林概念的基础上, 着重探讨了发展速生丰产林在我国林业建设中的地位, 澄清了国内外不同林业发展战略思路(如接近自然的林业, 林业分工论, 新林业学说和生态林业等) 与发展速生丰产林的关系.最后根据园内外发展速生丰产林(工业人工林) 的经验和教训, 指出今后我国速生丰产林的发展道路及应注意的问题.     

Forest product trade,wood consumption,and forest conservation—the case of 61 countries

Trade barriers of forest products are often advocated in the name of protecting forest resources. Whether the promoting of trade of forest products will increase or decrease the global forest resources is still a matter of debate. We offer an assessment of how forest product trade helps shape observed forest change, by relating wood consumption change to trade of forest products based on cross-section data from 61 countries in 2010. The result shows that wood outputs have positive effects on wood consumption. Compared to domestic production, the result suggests that imports of forest products can help reduce wood consumption. This may indicate that trade liberalization can promote the allocation efficiency of timber resources across the global, which can improve the utilization efficiency and reduce the wood consumption in the world to protect the global forest resources. It is suggested that the high-efficient harvest and wood-processing technological transfer should be advocated in the international community to contribute to global forest conservation.     

Assessing the impacts of four alternative management strategies on forest timber and carbon values in northeast China

Forest management strategies, reflecting the cognition and the demands of the human population on forests, have significant effects on the forest structures and functions. Nowadays, numerous forest management strategies have been introduced and implemented worldwide for a long time. However, our knowledge about the impacts of alternative management strategies on forest multipurpose management practices is still insufficient. Therefore, the overall goal of this study quantitatively assessed the impacts of four alternative forest management strategies on forest timber and carbon values in a large forest area in northeast China, as an example. Four alternative forest management strategies: no intervention management (NIM), classical timber management (CTM), multi-purpose management (MPM), and spatial-constraints management (SCM), in conjunction with different management objectives and regulations, were quantitative assessed using optimization methods. The results of numerical analysis showed that implementing eco-friendly forest management strategies such as imposed in MPM and SCM strategies may be economic inefficiencies, mainly due to significant decreases of the joint benefits from forest timber and carbon values (approximately $18.75 and $22.36 million per year) have been observed under the current carbon trading market of China (namely $20 per ton of carbon) when the ecological- and spatial-oriented constraints were further integrated into the typical CTM strategy. However, both MPM and SCM strategies were quite meaningful for the restoration of forest resources in northeast China, in which an additional of 13.6 and 16.2 thousand tons of carbon were sequestrated during the 50 years simulated horizon. Therefore, forest decision makers should evaluate the potential effects carefully prior to altering their forest management strategy in practices.