An analysis of potential investment returns and their determinants of poplar plantations in state-owned forest enterprises of China

China’s state-owned forest enterprises have been important national timber production bases and their timber resources have been severely degraded during the past decades. About one-third of the state-owned forestland has been classified as commercial forestland, but no economic mechanisms have been laid out on governing timber plantations under market economy. This paper demonstrates the potential investment returns and analyzes factors that directly influence the returns of fast-growing poplar plantations in a state owned-forest enterprise, China Jilin Forest Industry Group (CJFIG), in northeastern China. We examined practically possible ranges of mean annual increment (MAI), general inflation rate, rate of forest fund, and interest rate in the study area. We then computed net present values (NPV), equivalent annual income (EAI) and internal rate of return (IRR) by using the minimum, medium, and maximum values of the each determinant above. Results showed NPV ranged from $1,024 to $6,925 ha^?1, EAI ranged from $120 to $623 ha^?1 year^?1, and IRR ranged from 13.2 to 29.3 %. We show that growing poplar plantations could be two times more profitable than managing the existing natural forests in CJFIG by referring to EAI values. Improving MAI is the most effective way to increase both NPV and IRR while changes in the one-time tax at timber harvesting or changes in inflation rate have the least effect on NPV and IRR among the determinants studied. Discount rate, which can be easily manipulated by obtaining subsidies and policy-based loans, also has substantial influence on NPV. The state owned forest enterprises in China have special advantages to obtain relatively high economic returns in developing fast-growing plantation forests under market economy.     

Economics of intercropping loblolly pine and switchgrass for bioenergy markets in the southeastern United States

The main objective of this study was to assess the economics of alley cropping of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) in the southern United States. Assuming a price range of switchgrass between $15 and $50?Mg^?1 and yield of 12?Mg?ha^?1 year^?1, we investigated the effect of switchgrass production on the optimal forest management for loblolly pine stands under different stumpage prices. We considered the following potential scenarios: no competition between species for resources; reduced loblolly pine productivity due to competition with switchgrass; and reduced productivity of both species due to competition for nutrients, water and light. Findings also suggested that the optimal system would depend on the competitive interactions between switchgrass and loblolly pine crops, and the expected prices for each crop. Loblolly pine monoculture would be the most profitable option for landowners compared to intercropping systems with switchgrass below $30?Mg^?1. However, when switchgrass prices are ??$30?Mg^?1, landowners would be financially better off adopting intercropping if competitive interaction between crops were minimal. In order to realize higher economic returns for intercropping system, forest landowners must make some efforts in order to diminish the decline of productivity.     

Timber harvest,damage to crop plants and yield reduction in two Costa Rican coffee plantations with Cordia alliodora shade trees

Both model and field estimations were made of the damage inflicted to coffee plants due to the harvest of timber shade trees (Cordia alliodora) in coffee plantations. Economic analyses were made for different coffee planting densities, yields, and both coffee and timber prices.Damage due to tree felling and log skidding should not be a major limitation to the use of timber shade trees in coffee plantations. The timber price that would balance all discounted losses and benefits to zero, for scenarios with and without trees ranged between 8–20 US $/m³ (current overbark log volume at the saw mill yard is US$ 66/m³). There will be lower margins for coffee damage in high yielding plantations, specially in years of good coffee prices. Nevertheless, the use of timber shade trees is recommended even in these scenarios.     

A financial analysis of rain forest silviculture in southwestern Sri Lanka

We examine the financial aspects of three silvicultural systems to encourage the sustainability of valuable hardwood species in mixed-dipterocarp forests of southwest Sri Lanka. We compare the net present value (NPV) of the current forest management approach (diameter limit harvests) with shelterwood harvests that promote light hardwood timber species. In this analysis, we also consider the potential of enrichment planting various precious timber (Diospyros quaesita — calamander), and non-timber forest product (NTFP) species (Caryota urens — fishtail palm; Elettaria cardamomum var. major — cardamom; Calamus zeylanicus — rattan) in conjunction with timber harvests. Two real (inflation adjusted) discount rates were used, 4 and 6%, respectively. Results show that when real discount rates are low (4%), and advance regeneration is present, NPV is highest for the one-cut shelterwood (US $9983 ha⁻¹). At a high discount rate (6%), reflecting the current short-term concession system and unstable rights to harvest, and where no advance regeneration was present, the diameter limit system (US $7173 ha⁻¹) was the optimum. On sites with advanced regeneration, the one-cut shelterwood system is clearly preferable. For all but rattan, shelterwood treatments provide higher NPVs for NTFPs than diameter limit cuttings primarily because of the higher light regimes and more growing space made available early in the rotation. The value for tea cultivation (US $26,000 ha⁻¹) far exceeds the value of managing these lands for timber alone, explaining the dramatic expansion in tea plantations on private lands. However, our results suggest that managing these lands for a combination of timber and enrichment plantings of NTFPs (US $23,000 ha⁻¹) can be comparable to tea plantations. By managing for NTFPs and timber, forest managers have new opportunities to solve the old problems of high-grading and land-use conversion.     

Characterization of Douglas-fir grown in Portugal: heartwood,sapwood, bark,ring width and taper

Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) is one of the best timber conifers providing long sawnwood components. Original from North America, it has been planted in Europe on approximately 550 thousand ha. Twenty Douglas-fir trees growing in two sites in Portugal were studied regarding ring analysis, heartwood, sapwood and bark development, and taper. The radial growth rate was 7.1 and 6.6 mm year⁻¹ at stem base for 45- and 50-year-old trees, respectively, in the two sites. Initial growth rate was slower, increasing until about 20 years and decreasing afterwards. Heartwood proportion represented on average 49% of the cross section in the lower part of the stem and decreased upwards. Heartwood formation was estimated to start at a cambial age of 8–9 years and increasing by 0.7–0.9 rings year⁻¹. Sapwood width was on average 75 mm at stem base, decreasing upwards. Bark was 26–27 mm thick at stem base, where it represented 15% of the cross-sectional area and decreased to 3–5 mm at the top. Stemwood and heartwood tapers were on average 15 mm m⁻¹ in the lower stem part and 21 and 18 mm m⁻¹, respectively, in the upper part. Douglas-fir showed a good potential for the mountain areas of Portugal, and under the silvicultural conditions of both stands the trees presented ring homogeneity, small conicity and low taper suitable for long wood components.

     

Spacing effects in an unthinned 11-year-old Terminalia superba plantation in the dry lowland rainforest area of Nigeria

Data from a spacing study in an 11-year-old plantation of Terminalia superba were examined with response models. Analysis of variance of the latin-square design with four spacings indicated significant effects of spacing on survival and mean diameter, as well as basal area, height and volume growth. Response model analysis showed that a planting density of 2391 trees ha⁻¹ maximizes basal area growth and 2331 trees ha⁻¹ maximizes volume growth, but the largest mean diameter is produced by planting 232 trees ha⁻¹. Guides are provided for the forest manager's use in determining trade-offs between maximum timber production and space between trees to grow agricultural crops within the Taungya system.     

Recruitment of tree species in mixed selection and irregular shelterwood forest stands

Context

Recruitment is an important process in forest stand dynamics, especially in uneven-aged stands. Continuous recruitment is a prerequisite for diverse, uneven-aged silvicultural systems, but patterns may vary significantly.

Aims

The main goals of the study were to examine the recruitment of the main tree species in selection and irregular shelterwood stands in silver fir?CEuropean beech?CNorway spruce forests and to determine the main predictors of the recruitment occurrence.

Methods

Data from 5,486 permanent inventory plots were used to study recruitment of saplings into the tree layer (diameter at breast height ??10?cm).

Results

Recruitment rate differed significantly between selection (7.6?trees?ha^?1?year^?1) and irregular shelterwood (26.1?trees?ha^?1?year^?1) stands. Shade-tolerant fir and beech recruited with higher probability in selection stands, while light-dependent sycamore recruited with higher probability in irregular stands. In addition, forest types, soil pH, stand basal area, mean diameter, and the basal area of the same tree species with respect to recruitment were found to be important predictors of recruitment occurrence.

Conclusions

The application of different uneven-aged silvicultural systems and their forms makes it possible to considerably influence the future tree species composition of uneven-aged forests.     

Wood volume yield and stand structure in Norway spruce understorey depending on birch shelterwood density

Wood volume yield and stand structure were investigated for Norway spruce understorey growing at 1500 trees ha⁻¹ under birch shelters of two different densities, 300 and 600 trees ha⁻¹, and Norway spruce growing without shelter, in a field trial in the boreal coniferous forest, 56 years after the establishment of the stand and 19 years after establishment of the trial.Wood volume yield in sheltered spruce (mean annual increments of 1.87 and 1.78 m³ ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ under the dense and sparse shelterwoods, respectively) was significantly lower than that of unsheltered spruce (mean annual increment 2.43 m³ ha⁻¹ year⁻¹). The loss in wood volume yield for sheltered spruce was more than compensated for by the additional wood volume yield in the shelterwoods (mean annual increments 3.26 and 1.88 m³ ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ for the dense and sparse shelterwood respectively).Shelterwood density did not produce any significant differences in inequality of the understorey stands, measured as skewness and the Gini coefficient for the wood volume distributions. This implies that two-sided competition for nutrients and water was more significant than competition for light.Immediately after trial establishment, trees in the no shelterwood treatment (i.e. where all overstory trees had been removed) showed a marked increase in diameter growth. Over time, the growth rate of unsheltered Norway spruce was reduced to a level comparable to that of sheltered spruce. The difference in average diameter has persisted during the trial period. There was no similar effect on height growth, resulting in an increased slenderness index (h/d) with increased shelterwood density for the understorey trees.     

Comparing the financial performance of traditionally managed beech and oak stands with roomy established and pruned stands

Beech and oak stands are normally established with high numbers of plants. On one hand, this costs a lot, but on the other hand, knot-free timber may be expected only in this way. This study analyses whether roomy establishment and, as a result, lower timber quality lead to financial advantages over the normal treatment. In addition to this, it is tested if pruning of roomy established beech and oak stands is financially advantageous. For this valuation, conventionally managed stands were simulated with the forest growth simulator Silva and for the roomy established stands, data from trial plots were completed with Silva. The development of the pruned oak stands followed the yield table of Jobling and Pearce (Free growth of oak, Forest record number 113, Forestry Commission HMSO, London, 1977), while for beech the development of the diameters orientated to an investigation of Hasenauer et al. (Österr Forstztg 105:28–29, 1994). Based on the assortments contained in the stands, a valuation of the different treatments was done with annuities within a Monte Carlo simulation, thereby including the volatility of timber prices and the risk of natural hazards. Additionally, the imputed costs per cubic meter of produced timber and the minimum share of high-value assortments on the pruned trunks were calculated for the required rates of return of 1, 2 and 3%. The conventionally managed beech and oak stands were found to be inferior from the financial point of view. Even the non-pruned stands with roomy establishment were superior despite the lower timber quality. The minimum share of high-value assortments on the pruned trunks were between 6 and 410%. Particularly in the case of high values of the land, the maximum volume of high-value assortments was not sufficient to achieve certain rates of return. Nevertheless, the stands with pruning and low-density management were more profitable. In addition to this, it was ascertained that pruning of beech and oak is possible and does not hinder the production of high-value assortments.     

Timber mobilization and habitat tree retention in low-elevation mixed forests in Switzerland: an inventory-based scenario analysis of opportunities and constraints

Timber use in central Europe is expected to increase in the future, in line with forest policy goals to strengthen local wood supply for CO₂-neutral energy production, construction and other uses. Growing stocks in low-elevation forests in Switzerland are currently high as exemplified by the Swiss canton of Aargau, for which an average volume of 346 ± 16 m³ ha⁻¹ was measured in the 3rd Swiss National forest inventory (NFI) in 2004–2006. While this may justify a reduction of growing stocks through increased timber harvesting, we asked whether such a strategy may conflict with the sustainability of timber production and conservation goals. We evaluated a range of operationally relevant forest management scenarios that varied with respect to rotation length, growing stock targets and the promotion of conifers in the regeneration. The scenarios aimed at increased production of softwood, energy wood, the retention of potential habitat trees (PHTs) and the conversion to a continuous cover management system. They were used to drive the inventory-based forest simulator MASSIMO for 100 years starting in 2007 using the NFI sampling plots in Aargau. We analyzed model outputs with respect to projected future growing stock, growth, timber and energy yield and harvesting costs. We found growing stock to drop to 192 m³ ha⁻¹ in 2106 if business-as-usual (BAU as observed between the 2nd and 3rd NFI) timber volumes were set as harvesting targets for the whole simulation period. The promotion of conifers and a reduction of rotation lengths in a softwood scenario yielded 25% more timber over the whole simulation period than BAU. An energy wood scenario that reduced growing stock to 200 m³ ha⁻¹ by 2056 and promoted the natural broadleaved regeneration yielded 9% more timber than BAU before 2056 and 30% less thereafter due to decreasing increments. The softwood scenario resulted in higher energy yield than the energy wood scenario despite the lower energy content of softwood. Retaining PHT resulted in a reduction of timber harvest (0.055 m³ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ per habitat tree) and higher harvesting costs. Continuous cover management yielded moderate timber amounts throughout the simulation period, yet sustainably. Considering climate change, we discuss the risks associated with favoring drought- and disturbance-susceptible conifers at low elevations and emphasize that continuous cover management must allow for the regeneration of drought-adapted tree species. In conclusion, our simulations show potential for short-term increases in timber mobilization but also that such increases need to be carefully balanced with future forest productivity and other forest ecosystem services.

     

A comprehensive analysis of teak plantation investment in Colombia

A financial assessment of forest investments is comprehensive if the analysis includes reliable yield estimates, land expectation value (LEV) and risk calculation. All of these aspects were considered and applied to teak plantations in Colombia, an emergent economy where high forest productivity, low opportunity cost of land, and decreased financial/economic risk have substantially contributed to promote forest investments. The von Bertalanffy non-linear mixed effect model was used to estimate forest yields using data collected from 31 permanent sample plots, measured over a 17 year period. A stochastic version of LEV along with other financial criteria was calculated by using a computer algorithm and Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, probabilities obtained from stochastic financial calculations were used in logistic models to estimate probabilities of success for a forest plantation project, a measure of risk assessment, after changing land prices. Results suggest that the potential forest productivity (i.e., the biological asymptote) ranges from 93 to 372 m³ ha^− 1. The mean annual increment is 27.8 m³ ha^− 1 year^− 1, which is attained 6 years after the forest plantation is established. Profitability analyses for teak plantations in Colombia suggest a LEV of US$7000 ha^− 1. The risk analyses indicate negligible financial risk for forestlands whose prices are lower than US$2000 ha^− 1.     

Growth and productivity of black spruce in even- and uneven-aged stands at the limit of the closed boreal forest

The increasing commercial interest and advancing exploitation of new remote territories of the boreal forest require deeper knowledge of the productivity of these ecosystems. Canadian boreal forests are commonly assumed to be evenly aged, but recent studies show that frequent small-scale disturbances can lead to uneven-aged class distributions. However, how age distribution affects tree growth and stand productivity at high latitudes remains an unanswered question. Dynamics of tree growth in even- and uneven-aged stands at the limit of the closed black spruce (Picea mariana) forest in Quebec (Canada) were assessed on 18 plots with ages ranging from 77 to 340 years. Height, diameter and age of all trees were measured. Stem analysis was performed on the 10 dominant trees of each plot by measuring tree-ring widths on discs collected each meter from the stem, and the growth dynamics in height, diameter and volume were estimated according to tree age. Although growth followed a sigmoid pattern with similar shapes and asymptotes in even- and uneven-aged stands, trees in the latter showed curves more flattened and with increases delayed in time. Growth rates in even-aged plots were at least twice those of uneven-aged plots. The vigorous growth rates occurred earlier in trees of even-aged plots with a culmination of the mean annual increment in height, diameter and volume estimated at 40–80 years, 90–110 years earlier than in uneven-aged plots. Stand volume ranged between 30 and 238 m³ ha⁻¹ with 75% of stands showing values lower than 120 m³ ha⁻¹ and higher volumes occurring at greater dominant heights and stand densities. Results demonstrated the different growth dynamics of black spruce in single- and multi-cohort stands and suggested the need for information on the stand structure when estimating the effective or potential growth performance for forest management of this species.     

美国怀俄明州西黄松林分碳库和经济收益比较

A forest carbon (C) sequestration project was conducted to evaluate the economic incentives that would be required by landowners to engage in C trading under different management regimes. Costs associated with joint management for C sequestration and timber would be valuable for establishing sound forest C trading systems. In this study, we calculated the C yield and amortized value of three Wyoming, ponderosa pine stands. The management practices examined were, unmanaged, even-aged (regeneration after clear-cut) and uneven-aged (selectively harvested). Costs and revenues associated with three stands were converted into 2006 real dollars using the all commodity producer price index to facilitate a comparison among the net revenues of three stands. Net revenues were annualized using a conservative annual interest rate of 4.5%. Our even-aged stand had the highest annual average C yield of 2.48 Mg·ha⁻¹·a¹, whereas, the uneven-aged stand had the lowest C accumulation (1.98 Mg·ha⁻¹·a⁻¹). Alternatively, the even-aged stand had the highest amortized net return of $276·ha⁻¹·a⁻¹ and the unmanaged stand had the lowest net return of $276·ha⁻¹·a⁻¹ and the unmanaged stand had the lowest net return of 64 ·ha⁻¹·a⁻¹. On the plots examined, an annual payment of $22 for each additional Mg of C sequestered would encourage a change from uneven aged management to an unmanaged stand that sequesters additional C, in the absence of transactions costs.     

Stand development after different thinnings in two uneven-aged Picea abies forests in Sweden

Two field experiments, located in Central and Northern Sweden, were used to study the influence of standing volume on volume increment and ingrowth in uneven-aged Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) stands subjected to different thinnings. Each experiment had a 3 × 2 factorial block design with two replications. Treatments were thinning grade, removing about 45, 65, and 85% of pre-thinning basal area, and thinning type, removing the larger or the smaller trees, respectively. Each site also had two untreated control plots. Plot size was 0.25 ha. Volume increment was 0.5–6.8 m³ ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ for the plots, and significantly positively (p < 0.01) correlated with standing volume. Within treatment pairs, plots thinned from Above had consistently higher volume increment than plots thinned from Below. Ingrowth ranged from 3 to 33 stems ha⁻¹ year⁻¹, with an average of 14 and 21 stems ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ at the northern and southern site, respectively. At the southern site ingrowth was significantly negatively (p < 0.01) correlated with standing volume, but not at the northern site. Mean annual mortality after thinning was 2 and 7 stems ha⁻¹ year⁻¹at the northern and southern site, respectively.     

Biomass and nitrogen dynamics in an irrigated hybrid poplar plantation

A 3-year study measured the effects of ground cover treatments and N fertilization on biomass and nitrogen dynamics in an irridiated hybrid poplar (Populus deltoides Bartr. X P. trichocarpa Torr. and Gray, clone NC-9922) plantation in northern Wisconsin, U.S.A. Annually fertilized (112 kg N ha⁻¹ year⁻¹) and unfertilized plots were maintained weed free (bare soil), allowed to revegetate with native weeds, or seeded to birdsfoot trefoil (Lotus corniculatus L.). Biomass and N in trees and ground-cover vegetation were sampled before and after each growing season.Trees in bare-soil plots responded to fertilization primarily in the third growing season, but total biomass of 3-year-old trees was not increased by annual fertilization. In plots with a ground cover,fertilization increased tree growth but cover crop treatment had no effect. Ground cover biomass peaked during the second growing season, but declined thereafter, primarily due to reductions in below-ground biomass. Estimated recovery of fertilizer N was low in bare soil plots after 3 years, with 2% in the ‘perennial’ portion of the trees and 13% in the leaf litter. In contrast, recovery in the cover crop plots was 44%–51% in years 2–4. During that period, both biomass and N pool dominance shifted from primarily cover crop to primarily trees. The ground cover appeared to reduce tree growth in years 1–3, but total tree biomass after 4 years was greater in fertilized plots with ground cover (22.7 Mg/ha) than in fertilized bare soil plots (16.7 Mg/ha). Biomass production in fertilized trefoil plots in the fourth year (15.1 Mg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹, excluding leaves) exceeds that of local forests by 50%, and may be comparable to corn productivity in the area.     

Regeneration and structure of mixed conifer forests under single-tree harvest management in the western Bhutan Himalayas

We examined the regeneration and structure of mixed conifer forests under single-tree harvest management in western Bhutan. Sixteen 900 m² (30 m × 30 m) plots were sampled at four Forest Management Units (FMUs; Chamgang, Gidakom, Paro-Zonglela, and Haa-East) representing the forest type, including half the plots in single-tree harvest stands and half in unlogged stands. In addition, we solicited information on traditional forest management practices from informants using survey questionnaires and collected tree species data from felling records from respective local forest offices. Rural timber demand is concentrated on the removal of straight and well-formed bluepine trees for beams, planks, and scaffolding. Single-tree harvest, however, has not significantly altered stand structures from unlogged stands. Similarly, tree regeneration is not different when comparing single-tree harvest and unlogged stands, except at Chamgang FMU, where seedling densities were generally higher in harvested stands than in unlogged stands. These results indicate that single-tree harvest is not detrimental to regeneration and utilization of mixed conifer forests in western Bhutan.     

Establishment of native tropical timber trees in monoculture and mixed-species plantations: Small-scale effects on tree performance and insect herbivory

Plantations of native timber species established on former pasture are a potential strategy to reduce the logging pressure on remnant natural forests in the tropics. Such plantations may help to mitigate or reverse the negative impacts of land degradation, and they may contribute to the long-term livelihood of livestock farmers. Planting native trees is, however, perceived as a risky activity due to limited knowledge of their performance and due to marked losses of newly established seedlings attributed to insect pests. Our study focuses on the small-scale effects of environmental heterogeneity, tree diversity and insecticide treatment on the performance of three native Central American timber species two years after establishment, and on damage inflicted by insect herbivores. Growth, survival and herbivore leaf damage were quantified for Anacardium excelsum (Anacardiaceae), Cedrela odorata (Meliaceae) and Tabebuia rosea (Bignoniaceae) planted in an experiment in Panama as (1) monocultures, (2) mixed stands, and (3) mixed stands protected by insecticides. Our study revealed that small-scale effects can have a substantial impact on the success of timber trees planted on former pasture. Growth performance and survival of the three species was strongly affected by small-scale environmental heterogeneity, which was expressed as significant differences in growth and survival among different plantation plots at the same study site. Establishment of trees in mixed stands did not have significant effects on tree survival and growth compared to pure stands, although it reduced herbivore pressure in one of the studied tree species. All tree species grew best and suffered lowest leaf damage when protected by insecticides, indicating a general influence of insect herbivory on growth of newly established trees. In contrast to growth performance, survival was not significantly affected by different management practices or herbivory. The large variability among plots in tree survival and growth, and also in the effects of management practices such as planting design and insecticide treatment, emphasizes the importance of small-scale environmental heterogeneity on tree survival and growth.     

Financial feasibility of increasing carbon sequestration in harvested wood products in Mississippi

Longer forest rotation ages can potentially increase accumulation of carbon in harvested wood products due to a larger proportion of sawlogs that can be used for manufacturing durable wood products such as lumber and plywood. This study quantified amounts of carbon accumulated in wood products harvested from loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) stands grown in Mississippi by extending rotation ages traditionally used to manage these stands for timber. The financial viability of this approach was examined based on carbon payments received by landowners for sequestering carbon in standing trees and harvested wood products. Results indicated a potential to increase carbon accumulated in wood products by 16.11 metric tons (t) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) per hectare (ha) for a rotation increase of 5 years and 67.07 tCO₂e/ha for a rotation increase of 65 years. Carbon prices of $50/tCO₂e and $110/tCO₂e would be required to provide a sufficient incentive to forest landowners to extend rotations by 5 and 10 years, respectively. With 2.8 million ha of loblolly pine stands in Mississippi, this translates to a possible increase in wood products carbon of 45 million tCO₂e and 80 million tCO₂e for harvest ages increased by 5 and 10 years, respectively. Higher carbon prices lengthened rotation ages modestly due to low present values of carbon accumulated with long rotations.     

The global timber market: implications of changes in economic growth,timber supply,and technological trends

A partial equilibrium model was applied to the global forest sector in order to assess regional and global impacts of changes in economic growth, timber supply potentials, and technical trends. The model uses recursive price-endogenous linear programming and deals with eight geographical regions and 16 products. The base line projections of the model gave an average annual increase in global supply of industrial roundwood of 1.2% until the year 2010. The real price of sawlogs and sawnwood was found to remain approximately constant, whereas the prices of pulpwood and particles increased significantly during the first years, and then declined after the year 2000. The real prices of pulp and paper increased less than those of pulpwood and particles. The assumed variations in GDP growth rates had limited influence on quantities supplied and traded due to restricted timber supply potentials, but affected the real prices, especially of pulpwood and particles. Changes in the assumed timber supply potentials and technical change affected the real prices of pulpwood and particles significantly. Introduction of a price responsive timber supply also dampened the price peaks of pulpwood. Possible improvements of the methodology include empirical estimation of timber supply and of key parameters that determine capacity expansion, trade inertia, and technical changes.