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1.
Johne's disease (JD) is an incurable, chronic infectious disease prevalent in dairy herds throughout the US and the world. The substantial economic losses caused by JD have been well documented. However, information on the costs of controlling the disease is limited, yet necessary, if producers are to make sound decisions regarding JD management. The purpose of this paper is to describe a method for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of management changes to control JD on infected dairy farms. A 5-year longitudinal study of six dairy herds infected with JD was performed. Each herd implemented a JD control program upon study enrollment. Prevalence of JD within each herd was monitored with annual testing of all adult cows using fecal culture and/or serum ELISA. Individual cow production and culling information was collected to estimate the annual economic losses caused by JD. An economic questionnaire was developed and administered to each herd annually to estimate costs directly attributable to the JD control program. Based on the costs of the control program, and using the losses to estimate the potential benefits of the control program, the net present value (NPV) of the control program was calculated for each herd during the study and projected into the future for a total of 20 years. The NPV was calculated for four different scenarios: (1) assuming a linear decline in losses beyond the observed period of the study with JD eradication by year 20 of the control program; (2) assuming losses and JD prevalence remain constant at the rate equal to that of the last observed year while continuing the control program; (3) assuming linear increase in losses at rate equal to that in scenario 1 with no control program; and (4) assuming losses remain constant at same level as the beginning of the study with no control plan implemented. The NPV varied greatly across the herds. For scenario 1, only three herds had a positive NPV; and only two herds had a positive NPV under scenario two. In the absence of a control program, the NPV's were always negative. The costs of the JD control programs implemented on these herds averaged $30/cow/year with a median of $24/cow/year. The annual losses due to JD averaged $79/cow/year with a median of $66/cow/year. Investing in a JD control program can be cost-effective.  相似文献   

2.
OBJECTIVE: To estimate seroprevalence of Mycobacterium avium subsp paratuberculosis (MAP) infection among adult dairy cows in Colorado and determine herd-level factors associated with the risk that individual cows would be seropositive. DESIGN: Cross-sectional observational study. ANIMALS: 10,280 adult (> or = 2 years old) dairy cows in 15 herds in Colorado. PROCEDURE: Serum samples were tested with a commercial ELISA. A herd was considered to be infected with MAP if results of mycobacterial culture of > or = 1 individual cow fecal sample were positive or if > or = 1 culled cow had histologic evidence of MAP infection. RESULTS: 424 of the 10,280 (4.12%) cows were seropositive. Within-herd prevalence of seropositive cows ranged from 0% to 7.82% (mean, 2.6%). Infection was confirmed in 11 dairies. Cows in herds that had imported > or = 8% of their current herd size annually during the preceding 5 years were 3.28 times as likely to be seropositive as were cows in herds that imported < 8%. Cows in herds with > or = 600 lactating cows were 3.12 times as likely to be seropositive as were cows in herds with < 600 lactating cows. Cows in herds with a history of clinical signs of MAP infection were 2.27 times as likely to be seropositive as were cows in herds without clinical signs. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Annual importation rate, herd size, and whether cows in the herd had clinical signs typical of MAP infection were associated with the risk that individual cows would be seropositive for MAP infection.  相似文献   

3.
The objective of this study was to describe the distribution of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) in the environment of infected dairy farms over time. Johne’s disease (JD) prevalence was monitored annually in 7 Michigan dairy herds. Environmental samples were collected bi-annually and cultured for MAP. Of 731 environmental samples that were cultured, 81 (11%) were positive. The lactating cow floor and manure storage areas were the areas most commonly contaminated, representing 30% and 33% of positive samples, respectively. When herd prevalence was > 2%, MAP was cultured from the lactating cow floor and/or manure storage area 75% of the time. When herd prevalence was ≤ 2%, MAP was never cultured from samples collected. For every 1 unit increase in number of positive environmental samples, within herd JD prevalence increased 1.62%. Environmental contamination with MAP is consistent over time on infected dairy farms, and management practices to reduce environmental contamination are warranted.  相似文献   

4.
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate sensitivity of microbial culture of pooled fecal samples for detection of Mycobacterium avium subsp paratuberculosis (MAP) in large dairy herds and assess the use of the method for estimation of MAP prevalence. ANIMALS: 1,740 lactating cows from 29 dairy herds in California. PROCEDURE: Serum from each cow was tested by use of a commercial ELISA kit. Individual fecal samples were cultured and used to create pooled fecal samples (10 randomly selected fecal samples/pool; 6 pooled samples/herd). Sensitivity of MAP detection was compared between Herrold's egg yolk (HEY) agar and a new liquid culture method. Bayesian methods were used to estimate true prevalence of MAP-infected cows and herd sensitivity. RESULTS: Estimated sensitivity for pooled fecal samples among all herds was 0.69 (25 culture-positive pools/36 pools that were MAP positive). Sensitivity increased as the number of culture-positive samples in a pool increased. The HEY agar method detected more infected cows than the liquid culture method but had lower sensitivity for pooled fecal samples. Prevalence of MAP-infected cows was estimated to be 4% (95% probability interval, 2% to 6%) on the basis of culture of pooled fecal samples. Herd-level sensitivity estimate ranged from 90% to 100% and was dependent on prevalence in the population and the sensitivity for culture of pooled fecal samples. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Use of pooled fecal samples from 10 cows was a cost-effective tool for herd screening and may provide a good estimate of the percentage of MAP-infected cows in dairy herds with a low prevalence of MAP.  相似文献   

5.
An enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was evaluated as a method of determining relative immunoconversion rates in calves and how immunoconversion rates and strength of optical density values correlate with prevalence of Fasciola hepatica fecal egg shedding. Ten to 55 calves and cows were examined from each of 10 separate beef cattle herds in central and southern Louisiana. Infection prevalence rates for calves averaged 8% higher when ELISA optical density values were used than those when fecal egg count data were used. Of 55 calves in 8 herds that were ELISA positive, 39 were shedding F hepatica eggs; of 53 calves that were shedding eggs, 14 were ELISA negative. Significant correlation of calf fecal and ELISA prevalence was observed for 8 herds by linear regression analysis. A chi 2 analysis showed that calf ELISA and fecal egg shedding data were not independent. Results indicate that positive ELISA reactions for as few as 10 to 15 calves from the fall calf crop of a given herd are sufficiently accurate to be used to assess F hepatica herd infection rates, the likelihood of liver condemnations at feedlot destinations, and variation between individual farms in fascioliasis infection risk. The test was less valuable as a diagnostic test when used in adult animals previously exposed to F hepatica or on an individual animal basis.  相似文献   

6.
The objective of this study was to describe the estimated within-herd prevalence (WHP) of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map) in a sample of infected dairy herds in Minnesota (N = 66) using test results from bacterial culture of pooled fecal samples. Fecal samples were collected from up to 100 cows in each herd and were tested using bacterial culture in pools of 5 cows based on age order. The mean herd size was 222 (44 to 1500) milking cows; the cows were predominantly Holstein. Using a frequentist approach, the within-herd mean individual fecal prevalence was 10% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 4% to 16%] assuming 70% test sensitivity and 99.5% test specificity. Using Bayesian methods, the estimated true within-herd individual cow prevalence was 14% (95% CI = 7% to 27%). Within-herd prevalence was higher in larger dairy herds than in herds with fewer cows. As Map is the causative agent of Johne's disease (JD), the results of this study could contribute to the success of a nationwide control program for this disease.  相似文献   

7.
The objectives of this study were to estimate the prevalence of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) among deer and rabbits surrounding infected and noninfected Minnesota dairy farms using fecal culture, and to describe the frequency that farm management practices were used that could potentially lead to transmission of infection between these species. Fecal samples from cows and the cow environment were collected from 108 Minnesota dairy herds, and fecal pellets from free-ranging white-tailed deer and eastern cottontail rabbits were collected from locations surrounding 114 farms; all samples were tested using bacterial culture. In addition, a questionnaire was administered to 114 herd owners. Sixty-two percent of the dairy herds had at least 1 positive fecal pool or environmental sample. A total of 218 rabbit samples were collected from 90% of the herds, and 309 deer samples were collected from 47% of the herds. On 2 (4%) of the farms sampled, 1 deer fecal sample was MAP positive. Both farms had samples from the cow fecal pool and cow environment that were positive by culture. On 2 (2%) other farms, 1 rabbit fecal sample was positive by culture to MAP, with one of these farms having positive cow fecal pools and cow environmental samples. Pasture was used on 79% of the study farms as a grazing area for cattle, mainly for dry cows (75%) and bred or prebred heifers (87%). Of the 114 farms, 88 (77%) provided access to drylot for their cattle, mainly for milking cows (77/88; 88%) and bred heifers (87%). Of all study farms, 90 (79%) used some solid manure broadcasting on their crop fields. Of all 114 farms, the estimated probability of daily physical contact between cattle manure and deer or rabbits was 20% and 25%, respectively. Possible contact between cattle manure and deer or rabbits was estimated to occur primarily from March through December. The frequency of pasture or drylot use and manure spreading on crop fields may be important risk factors for transmission of MAP among dairy cattle, deer, and rabbits. Although the MAP prevalence among rabbits and deer is low, their role as MAP reservoirs should be considered.  相似文献   

8.
A cross-sectional, stratified random survey of Michigan dairy herds was conducted to estimate the prevalence of herds infected with Mycobacterium avium paratuberculosis (MAP), the causative agent of Johne's disease, in Michigan using targeted environmental sampling. One pooled sample each from the primary manure storage area and a high-traffic common cow area from each herd was collected and cultured for MAP using the ESP® culture system II. A herd was classified as positive if at least one sample was culture positive for MAP. State, agricultural district, and herd size stratum prevalence were calculated. Information on past MAP testing and cattle purchase history was collected, and logistic regression was performed to determine their importance to the MAP status of the herd. One hundred twenty-seven herds were contacted, and 94 agreed to participate in the study. The environment of 38 (40.4%) herds cultured positive for MAP. MAP was found in all herds (n = 15) with greater than 200 lactating cows. Herds that had tested for MAP or purchased cattle in the previous 5 years were 4.6 and 3.1 times, respectively, more likely to be infected than herds that had not. MAP continues to be prevalent on Michigan dairy farms, especially those with greater than 200 lactating cows. The environmental sampling protocol used in this study is an economically attractive alternative for monitoring herd level prevalence and the progress of Johne's disease control programs at the state or national level. Implementation of such a program would aid states in monitoring Johne's control program progress, and guide changes over time.  相似文献   

9.
OBJECTIVE: To estimate prevalence of Salmonella spp in Ohio dairy farms and to identify potential risk factors for fecal shedding of salmonellae. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SAMPLE POPULATION: 105 Ohio dairy farms. PROCEDURE: Individual fecal samples from all mature cows in study herds were tested for Salmonella spp by use of standard bacteriologic culture procedures. Herds were identified as infected if at least 1 cow was shedding Salmonella spp. Information regarding herd characteristics, management practices, and health history were collected. Potential risk factors for herd-level Salmonella infection were identified. RESULTS: In 31% of the study herds (95% confidence interval, 22 to 40%), at least 1 cow was shedding Salmonella spp. Six percent of 7,776 fecal samples contained Salmonella organisms; prevalence within infected herds ranged from < 1 to 97%. Herd size, use of free stalls for lactating and nonlactating cows, and use of straw bedding in nonlactating cows were significantly associated with fecal shedding of Salmonella spp, as determined by use of univariate analysis. By use of multivariate analysis, large herds were more likely to be infected than smaller herds; however, no other factors were associated with Salmonella infection after adjustment for herd size. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Subclinical shedding of Salmonella spp is common in Ohio dairy herds, although we could not identify specific interventions that may influence the prevalence of Salmonella spp on dairy farms. It appears that large herd size and intensive management may provide an environment conducive to Salmonella shedding and chronic dairy herd infection.  相似文献   

10.
OBJECTIVE: To investigate herd characteristics and management practices associated with a high seroprevalence of Mycobacterium avium subsp paratuberculosis (MAP) in dairy herds in central California. SAMPLE POPULATION: 60 randomly selected cows from each of 21 dairy herds. PROCEDURES: Sera of selected cows were tested for antibodies against MAP by use of an ELISA test kit. Cows with a test sample-to-positive control sample (S:P) ratio of > or = 0.25 were considered seropositive, and herds with > or = 4% seropositive cows were considered high-seroprevalence herds. Data on herd characteristics and management practices were collected via interviews with owners. Bayesian logistic regression was used to model the predictive probability of a herd having a high seroprevalence on the basis of various herd characteristics and management practices. RESULTS: 9 of 21 (43%) herds were classified as high-seroprevalence herds. Five variables (history of previous signs of paratuberculosis in the herd, herd size, exposing cattle to water from manure storage lagoons, feeding unsalable milk to calves, and exposing heifers < or = 6 months old to manure of adult cows) were included in the predictive model on the basis of statistical and biological considerations. In large herds, the predictive probability of a high seroprevalence of MAP infection decreased from 0.74 to 0.39 when management changed from poor to good practices. In small herds, a similar decrease from 0.64 to 0.29 was predicted. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The seroprevalence of MAP infection in California dairies may be reduced by improvements in herd management practices.  相似文献   

11.
Three chronically paratuberculosis infected herds were tested for six years twice a year (intradermal Johnin test, antibody ELISA (IDEXX Corp.), microbial culture) according to a sanitary program. Culling of shedding animals and vaccination of calves with NEOPARASEC (Merial Corp.) were part of the program. In course of experiment, 1015 samples of 228 non vaccinated cows and 1502 samples of 293 vaccinated cattle have been tested. 3.8% of the vaccinated animals proved positive in microbial culture. Nearly all vaccinated calves developed granulomas sized from hazelnut to loaf at the injection site. Positive reactions in intradermal test as well as in antibody ELISA were found in very young calves. 24.3%, 33.7%, 25.9%, respectively of the non vaccinated animals were identified as shedders of M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) by microbial culture. In the first and in the second herd most shedders of MAP were found in the first herd examination (66.7%, 42.9%, respectively), whereas in the third herd they were detected in the fifth examination (31.0%). At the beginning, 17.9% of non vaccinated animals proved positive in intradermal test, 14.4% in antibody ELISA. Afterwards, the number of positive test results decreased but increased again towards the end of the experiment. 48.5% of the 66 shedders showed positive reactions in intradermal test, 57.6% in antibody ELISA, 77.3% in at least one of these both tests. Antibodies in ELISA were found in rising frequency from two years before the time of shedding. 50.0% of the shedders reacted positive in ELISA at the time of shedding. In selected shedders first positive results were found at the age of about two years. Unfortunately, only incomplete hygienic measures were realized by the farmers. Under field conditions the realisation of attending sanitary programs is difficult. MAP is spread mainly by buying of animals, therefore a certification program for paratuberculosis free herds is urgently necessary as well as an improvement of diagnostic methods.  相似文献   

12.
In herds with known prevalence (P) use of environmental sampling (ES) to detect Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infected cattle herds was proofed in relation to P. In 31 MAP-infected free stall dairy herds and 15 non-infected herds P was defined by annually repeated whole herd testing by fecal culture (34 877 individual samples). Eight infected herds had a very low (> 0-2%), 14 a low (> 2-5%), four a medium (> 5-10%), and five a high P (> 10%). A mean number of nine environmental samples per herd were collected from the floor of lactating cows, milking, calving and sick cow areas and the crossover to the calf area. After twelve weeks cultivation on HEYM-medium with and without mycobactin positive samples were further characterized by PCR. All non-infected herds (100%) showed negative and 22 (71%) of the infected herds positive results in ES. Nine infected herds with negative ES results had a low P (0.04-4,04%). Proportion of positive ES depended on P and on sampling areas with 53.3% positive results in lactating cow areas and 45.2% in milking areas. For P > 5%, ES in these two areas caused a positive herd status; herds with P < 5% required sampling in the other areas too. The ES method has a herd sensitivity of 87% for dairy herds with P > 2% and provides an efficient tool to determine MAP infection status or herd prevalence.  相似文献   

13.
Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) are used in Johne's disease (JD) control programs as a first screening for presence of the disease in a herd. A high sensitivity of the ELISA is therefore important, yet the commonly used ELISAs have relatively low sensitivity. The inclusion of an absorption phase, although improving specificity, potentially decreases sensitivity. Sera and feces of 383 adult dairy cows in 8 herds were used to compare the test characteristics of an absorbed and a nonabsorbed indirect ELISA for the detection of JD. The absorbed ELISA is based on a protoplasmic antigen, whereas the nonabsorbed uses a lipoarabinomannan-based antigen. The potential advantage of the nonabsorbed ELISA is that it may be less specific and more sensitive. Two herds certified free of JD were used to compare the specificity of the ELISAs. The other herds used to compare sensitivity were either infected with Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis or had unknown status. Using fecal culture as a gold standard, the diagnostic specificity for the absorbed and nonabsorbed ELISAs were 98.4% and 87.9%, respectively. The diagnostic sensitivity was 72.4% and 65.5% for the absorbed and the nonabsorbed ELISA, respectively. Furthermore, a comparison using a fecal DNA probe as the comparison standard resulted in both ELISAs having a sensitivity of 61.9%. Agreement between the 2 ELISAs was moderate, with a kappa statistic of 0.58. The nonabsorbed ELISA did not have a higher sensitivity and had a lower specificity than the absorbed ELISA. Therefore, in this population, there was no advantage gained with using the nonabsorbed ELISA.  相似文献   

14.
The objectives of this study were to: (1) characterize Minnesota dairy herds participating in a Johne's disease control program (JDCP) based on herd size, milk production, and clinical Johne's disease (JD) history, (2) evaluate if change in farm management practices, expressed in risk assessment (RA) total score, is associated with the change between the first and most recent ELISA test herd seroprevalence or change in clinical JD culling rate, and (3) identify farm factors associated with ELISA seroprevalence. A total of 1234 RA, performed between January 2000 and February 2004, were available for analysis from 714 dairy herds. ELISA test results from herd sampling between 2000 and 2004 were obtained from the Minnesota board of animal health (MBAH) database, and were available for 474 herds. Both the first and the most recent ELISA test results for herds with more than one RA were available for 262 herds. Mean herd size and mean annual milk production per cow was higher in JDCP dairy herds (161 milking cows) than either all Minnesota dairy herds or Minnesota dairy herd improvement association (DHIA) herds. For herds with more than one RA available, the most recent RA total score was significantly lower (mean 11% less) than the first. The change in RA total score (and any RA subtotal scores) between the first and most recent RA was not associated with the change between the first and the most recent ELISA within-herd seroprevalence or the change in JD culling rate between the first and most recent RA. The most recent ELISA test results were positively associated with postweaned heifer score and JD culling rate. The RA score was not found to be an effective tool for the prediction of ELISA seroprevalence.  相似文献   

15.
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate sensitivities at the herd level of test strategies used in the Voluntary Johne's Disease Herd Status Program (VJDHSP) and alternative test strategies for detecting dairy cattle herds infected with Mycobacterium paratuberculosis. DESIGN: Nonrandom cross-sectional study. SAMPLE POPULATION: 64 dairy herds from Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Colorado, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Fifty-six herds had at least 1 cow shedding M. paratuberculosis in feces; the other 8 herds were free from paratuberculosis. PROCEDURE: For all adult cows in each herd, serum samples were tested for antibodies to M. paratuberculosis with an ELISA, and fecal samples were submitted for bacterial culture for M. paratuberculosis. Sensitivities at the herd level (probability of detecting infected herd) of various testing strategies were then evaluated. RESULTS: Sensitivity at the herd level of the testing strategy used in level 1 of the VJDHSP (use of the ELISA to test samples from 30 cows followed by confirmatory bacterial culture of feces from cows with positive ELISA result) ranged from 33 to 84% for infected herds, depending on percentage of cows in the herd with positive bacterial culture results. If follow-up bacterial culture was not used to confirm positive ELISA results, sensitivity ranged from 70 to 93%, but probability of identifying uninfected herds as infected was 89%. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Results suggest that the testing strategy used in the VJDHSP will fail to identify as infected most dairy herds with a low prevalence of paratuberculosis. A higher percentage of infected herds was detected if follow-up bacterial culture was not used, but this test strategy was associated with a high probability of misclassifying uninfected herds.  相似文献   

16.
The objective of this prospective longitudinal field study was to describe changes in prevalence of seroconversion and fecal shedding and changes in incidence rate of seroconversion, fecal shedding and culling of milk cows for clinical signs of Johne's disease (JD) in six Minnesota (USA) herds participating to the JD Demonstration Herd Project (JDDHP) from 2000 to December 2005. Changes in prevalence and incidence rate were evaluated in light of the owner's compliance to the JDDHP using a risk assessment (RA) score. Adult cows were tested regularly using serum ELISA and bacterial fecal culture to evaluate progress made throughout the control program. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between the risk for a cow to test positive and the year on the program. After 5 years of follow-up, the proportion of cows that tested positive to serum ELISA and fecal culture (all positive cultures as well as moderate to heavy shedders only) decreased significantly from the first to the last year (8-3.1%, 10.4-5.6% and 3.1-1.5%, respectively). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to evaluate change of incidence rate across birth cohorts. Birth cohorts were defined by birth date of the animals with the reference cohort or oldest cohort being already 12-24 months of age at the onset of the long-term management program. All cohorts were censored at 45 months of age. Compared to cows from the reference cohort, cows from cohorts that could have benefitted from the JDDHP in their young age (less than 12 months of age at the start of the program or born later) were significantly less at risk of seroconversion and fecal shedding (hazard ratios for seroconversion, any fecal shedding and heavy shedding less than 0.63, 0.67 and 0.62, respectively). For the three herds achieving good management changes with a risk assessment score under 30 at their last year of the study, the cohorts that were born after the program was instituted did better than those born before the start of the program, implying that the program could have helped around birth as well for those herds. This study suggests that reduction of environmental contamination of heifers up to a year of age may have had some impact on the success of the program. The JDDHP appears more beneficial for herds achieving a better reduction of their RA score with a decrease risk for infection in very young calves.  相似文献   

17.
Milk and serum samples from 35 dairy herds in 17 states were evaluated for cow- and herd-level Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) antibody test agreement. Evaluation of 6,349 samples suggested moderate agreement between milk and serum enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) results, with a kappa value of 0.50. Cow-level sensitivity (Se) for 18 dairy operations with 1,921 animals was evaluated relative to fecal culture results. At the cow level, the milk ELISA relative Se was not significantly different from that of the serum ELISA (21.2 and 23.5%, respectively). Logistic regression models revealed a positive association between lactation number and milk ELISA status. Non-Holstein cows were more likely to test milk ELISA positive than Holstein cows. Cows in the first 2 weeks of lactation and after week 45 of lactation were more likely to test milk ELISA positive than cows between 3 and 12 weeks of lactation. Milk production > 80% of herd average was negatively associated with testing milk ELISA positive. Animals in the West and Midwest regions were less likely than animals in the Southeast region to test ELISA positive by either test. Estimates for herd-level sensitivity for the milk and serum ELISA, relative to fecal culture results, ranged from 56 to 83%. At the cow and herd levels, milk ELISA performed equivalent to serum ELISA using fecal culture as a reference for MAP infection and has the advantage of decreased labor costs on farms that use Dairy Herd Improvement Association testing.  相似文献   

18.
The association of herd- and sample-level factors with the isolation of Salmonella group B from cattle fecal samples was analyzed. Study farms were 65 dairy herds with a recent history of laboratory-confirmed clinical salmonella infections. Herds were visited once per month for three months to collect data and samples for bacteriological culture. Herd size varied widely from 34 to 3700 total cattle on the farm (median=370). Salmonella serogroup B was isolated from 270 of 2726 samples tested. The predominant serotypes identified were S. Typhimurium and S. Typhimurium var. Copenhagen. Logistic regression was used to analyze the relationship between potential risk factors and isolating Salmonella serogroup B. The only herd-level factor which was significantly associated with fecal shedding was total herd size (hundreds of cattle OR=1.09; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05, 1.14). The probability of a positive sample decreased substantially for longer intervals between the initial clinical case and sampling (interval in months OR=0.5; 95% CI: 0.3, 0.6). The presence of diarrhea increased the risk of shedding (OR=2.1; 95% CI: 1.4, 3.0). The effect of recent treatment with antimicrobial agents depended on age group. For heifers and cows, recent antimicrobial treatment increased the probability of isolating Salmonella (heifers OR=11.8; 95% CI: 2.9, 48.8; cows OR=4.1; 95% CI: 2.0, 8.4), but this effect was not statistically significant for calves before weaning. Among animals without recent antimicrobial treatment, preweaned calves were more likely to have positive samples than cows (OR=3.5; 95% CI: 1.8, 6.9; heifers OR=4.7; 95% CI: 2.3, 9.6).  相似文献   

19.
AIMS: To assess the sensitivity and specificity of a bulk tank milk (BTM) antibody enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) to detect likely infection of a dairy herd with bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV). The ELISA was subsequently used to estimate the prevalence of likely infected herds in parts of the North Island of New Zealand. METHODS: BTM samples from 724 randomly selected dairy herds in the Waikato, Bay of Plenty and Northland regions of New Zealand were tested for BVDV antibodies. From this group, 20 herds were again randomly selected from each of the quartiles of the ELISA percentage inhibition (%INH) result. From each participant herd, serum from 15 randomly selected calves aged 6-18 months and 15 cows was collected and tested using an indirect blocking ELISA for BVDV antibodies. RESULTS: Among serum results from calves from 50 herds available for analysis, 34 (68%) herds were classified as likely non-infected (0-3 seropositive among 15 calves) and 16 (32%) as likely infected (5-15 seropositive among 15 calves). Receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) analysis identified an optimal cut-off for BTM of 80%INH associated with 81% sensitivity and 91% specificity for likely herd infection. The prevalence of BVDV antibodies in cows within herds and %INH for BVDV in bulk milk were positively correlated (p<0.01). The association between bulk milk %INH and the prevalence of BVDV antibodies in calves was stronger than the same association in cows. Based on the threshold of 80%INH, the 95% confidence interval (CI) for prevalence of likely infection in the 724 herds in the Waikato, Bay of Plenty and Northland regions of New Zealand was 12-17%. Vaccination against BVDV was not significantly associated with the likely infection status of the herd based on prevalence of BVDV antibodies among calves. CONCLUSION: An ELISA test result for BVDV antibodies in BTM >/=80%INH can be used as a threshold to indicate the presence of likely infection with BVDV in dairy herds in New Zealand, with 81% sensitivity and 91% specificity.  相似文献   

20.
A stochastic simulation model was developed to estimate the time from introduction of Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus (BVDV) in a herd to detection of antibodies in bulk tank milk (BTM) samples using three ELISAs. We assumed that antibodies could be detected, after a fixed threshold prevalence of seroconverted milking cows was reached in the herd. Different thresholds were set for each ELISA, according to previous studies. For each test, antibody detection was simulated in small (70 cows), medium (150 cows) and large (320 cows) herds. The assays included were: (1) the Danish blocking ELISA, (2) the SVANOVIR®BVDV-Ab ELISA, and (3) the ELISA BVD/MD p80 Institute Pourquier. The validation of the model was mainly carried out by comparing the predicted incidence of persistently infected (PI) calves and the predicted detection time, with records from a BVD infected herd. Results showed that the SVANOVIR, which was the most efficient ELISA, could detect antibodies in the BTM of a large herd 280 days (95% prediction interval: 218; 568) after a transiently infected (TI) milking cow has been introduced into the herd. The estimated time to detection after introduction of one PI calf was 111 days (44; 605). With SVANOVIR ELISA the incidence of PIs and dead born calves could be limited and the impact of the disease on the animal welfare and income of farmers (before detection) could be minimized. The results from the simulation modeling can be used to improve the current Danish BVD surveillance program in detecting early infected herds.  相似文献   

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