Exploring adaptation to climate change in the forests of central Nova Scotia, Canada

The threat of climate change is now recognized as an imminent issue at the forefront of the forest sector. Incorporating adaptation to climate change into forest management will be vital in the continual and sustainable provision of forest ecosystem services. The objective of this study is to investigate climate change adaptation in forest management using the landscape disturbance model LANDIS-II. The study area was comprised of 14,000 ha of forested watersheds in central Nova Scotia, Canada, managed by Halifax Water, the municipal water utility. Simulated climate change adaptation was directed towards three components of timber harvesting: the canopy-opening size of harvests, the age of harvested trees within a stand, and the species composition of harvested trees within a stand. These three adaptation treatments were simulated singly and in combination with each other in the modeling experiment. The timber supply was found to benefit from climate change in the absence of any adaptation treatment, though there was a loss of target tree species and old growth forest. In the age treatment, all trees in a harvested stand at or below the age of sexual maturity were exempt from harvesting. This was done to promote more-rapid succession to climax forest communities typical of the study area. It was the most effective in maintaining the timber supply, but least effective in promoting resistance to climate change at the prescribed harvest intensity. In the composition treatment, individual tree species were selected for harvest based on their response to climate change in previous research and on management values at Halifax Water to progressively facilitate forest transition under the altered climate. This proved the most effective treatment for maximizing forest age and old-growth area and for promoting stands composed of climatically suited target species. The size treatment was aimed towards building stand complexity and resilience to climate change, and was the most influential treatment on the response of timber supply, forest age, and forest composition to timber harvest when it was combined with other treatments. The combination of all three adaptation treatments yielded an adequate representation of target species and old forest without overly diminishing the timber supply, and was therefore the most effective in minimizing the trade-offs between management values and objectives. These findings support a diverse and multi-faceted approach to climate change adaptation.     

全球气候变化及森林生态系统的适应性管理

人类活动所引起的温室效应及由此造成的全球气候变化对全球生态环境的影响正越来越引起人们的关注。森林作为全球陆地生态系统的一个重要组分, 对全球气候变化的响应较为敏感。文中系统总结了全球气候变化对物种和森林类型分布、森林生态系统结构和物种组成、森林生产力、森林土壤碳氮循环和森林灾害等几个方面的影响, 以及森林生态系统管理面临的挑战, 在此基础上提出了适应未来气候变化的森林生态系统管理策略。     

Historical and Anticipated Changes in Forest Ecosystems of the Inland West of the United States

Euro-American settlement of the Inland West has altered forest and woodland landscapes, species composition, disturbance regimes, and resource conditions. Public concern over the loss of selected species and unique habitats (e.g., old-growth) has caused us to neglect the more pervasive problem of declining ecosystem health. Population explosions of trees, exotic weed species, insects, diseases, and humans are stressing natural systems. In particular, fire exclusion, grazing, and timber harvest have created anomalous ecosystem structures, landscape patterns, and disturbance regimes that are not consistent with the evolutionary history of the indigenous biota. Continuation of historical trends of climate change, modified atmospheric chemistry, tree density increases, and catastrophic disturbances seems certain. However, ecosystem management strategies including the initiation of management experiments can facilitate the adaptation of both social and ecological systems to these anticipated changes. A fairly narrow window of opportunity-perhaps 15-30 years-exists for land managers to implement ecological restoration treatments.     

我国半干旱区东段森林动态研究现状及展望

半干旱区干湿交替、林草交错,生态系统复杂,生物多样性丰富,是受气候变化影响的敏感区域,森林大面积非正常死亡现象正在普遍发生.文中围绕半干旱区森林死亡原因、不同树种水分利用策略与生长特征以及应对干旱胁迫的机制等核心问题,综述了半干旱区森林分布格局及其成因,在气候变化背景下森林的死亡与更新,树木生长季开始与结束时间的界定,...     

Pertinence of reactive,active, and robust adaptation strategies in forest management under climate change

Key message

Pertinence of alternative adaptation strategies to business as usual, namely reactive, active, and robust adaptation strategies, can be evaluated by incorporating the expected costs and benefits of adaptation, climate change uncertainty, and the risk attitudes of decision-makers.

Context

Forest management is used to coping with risky and uncertain projections and estimates. However, climate change adds a major challenge and necessitates adaptation in many ways.

Aims

This paper highlights the dependency of the decisions on adaptation strategies to four aspects of forest management: (i) the costs of mitigating undesirable climate change impacts on forests, (ii) the value of ecosystem goods and services to be sustained, (iii) uncertainties about future climate trajectories, and (iv) the attitude of decision-makers towards risk (risk aversion level).

Methods

We develop a framework to evaluate the pertinence of reactive, active, and robust adaptation strategies in forest management in response to climate change.

Results

Business as usual may still be retained if the value of the forest and cost of climate impacts are low. Otherwise, it is crucial to react and facilitate the resilience of affected forest resources or actively adapt in advance and improve forest resistance. Adaptation should be robust under any future climate conditions, if the value of the ecosystem, the impacts from climatic changes, and the uncertainty about climate scenarios are very high.

Conclusion

The decision framework for adaptation should take into account multiple aspects of forest management under climate change towards an active and robust strategy.

     

Multiple-use forest management in consideration of climate change and the interests of stakeholder groups

In this study, the overall utility of forest management alternatives at the forest management unit level is evaluated with regard to multi-purpose and multi-user settings by a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) method. The MCA is based on an additive utility model. The relative importance of partial objectives of forest management (carbon sequestration, ground water recharge, biodiversity, and timber production) is defined in cooperation with stakeholders. The forest growth model 4C (Forest Ecosystems in a Changing Environment) is used to simulate the impact of six forest management strategies and climate on forest functions. Two climate change scenarios represent uncertainties with regard to future climatic conditions. The study is based on actual forest conditions in the Kleinsee management unit in east Germany, which is dominated by Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and oak (Quercus robur L. and Quercus petraea Liebl.) stands. First, there is an analysis of the impact of climate and forest management on forest functions. Climate change increases carbon sequestration and income from timber production due to increased stand productivity. Secondly, the overall utility of the management strategies is compared under the priority settings of different stakeholder groups. From an ecological perspective, a conservation strategy would be preferable under all climate scenarios, but the business as usual management would also fit the expectations under the current climate due to high biodiversity and carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystem. In contrast, a forest manager in public-owned forests or a private forest owner would prefer a management strategy with an intermediate thinning intensity and a high share of pine stands to enhance income from timber production while maintaining the other forest functions.     

Scaling issues in forest ecosystem management and how to address them with models

Scaling is widely recognized as a central issue in ecology. The associated cross-scale interactions and process transmutations make scaling (i.e. a change in spatial or temporal grain and extent) an important issue in understanding ecosystem structure and functioning. Moreover, current concepts of ecosystem stewardship, such as sustainability and resilience, are inherently scale-dependent. The importance of scale and scaling in the context of forest management is likely to further increase in the future because of the growing relevance of ecosystem services beyond timber production. As a result, a consideration of processes both below (e.g. leaf-level carbon uptake in the context of climate change mitigation) and above (e.g. managing for biodiversity conservation at the landscape scale) the traditional focus on the stand level is required in forest ecosystem management. Furthermore, climate change will affect a variety of ecosystem processes across scales, ranging from photosynthesis (tree organs) to disturbance regimes (landscape scale). Assessing potential climate change impacts on ecosystem services thus requires a multi-scale perspective. However, scaling issues have received comparatively little attention in the forest management community to date. Our objectives here are thus first, to synthesize scaling issues relevant to forest management and second, to elucidate ways of dealing with complex scaling problems by highlighting examples of how they can be addressed with ecosystem models. We have focused on three current management issues of particular importance in European forestry: (1) climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration, (2) multi-functional stand management for biodiversity and non-timber goods and services and (3) improving the resilience to natural disturbances. We conclude that taking into account the full spatiotemporal heterogeneity and dynamics of forest ecosystems in management decision-making is likely to make management more robust to increasing environmental and societal pressures. Models can aid this process through explicitly accounting for system dynamics and changing conditions, operationally addressing the complexity of cross-scale interactions and emerging properties. Our synthesis indicates that increased attention to scaling issues can help forest managers to integrate traditional management objectives with emerging concerns for ecosystem services and therefore deserves more attention in forestry.     

Response to comments on “Root respiration data and minirhizotron observations conflict with root turnover estimates from sequential soil coring”

Abstract

Climatic warming may lead to increased or decreased future forest productivity. However, more frequent heat waves, droughts and storms and accompanying pathogen attacks are also expected for Europe and are considered to be increasingly important abiotic and biotic stress factors for forests. Adaptive forestry can help forest ecosystems to adapt to these new conditions in order to achieve management goals, maintain desired forest ecosystem services and reduce the risks of forest degradation. With a focus on central Europe, this paper presents the following management strategies: (1) conservation of forest structures, (2) active adaptation, and (3) passive adaptation. The feasibility and criteria for application of the different strategies are discussed. Forest adaptation may entail the establishment of “neonative” forests, including the use and intermixing of native and non-native tree species as well as non-local tree provenances that may adapt better to future climate conditions. An integrative adaptive management concept is proposed that combines (1) species suitability tests and modelling activities at the international scale, (2) priority mapping of adaptation strategies at the national to regional scale, and (3) implementation at the local scale. To achieve this, an international experimental trial system is required to test suitable adaptive measures throughout Europe and worldwide.     

Adopting robust decision-making to forest management under climate change

Key message

Multi-objective robust decision making is a promising decision-making method in forest management under climate change as it adequately considers deep uncertainties and handles the long-term, inflexible, and multi-objective character of decisions. This paper provides guidance for application and recommendation on the design.

Context

Recent studies have promoted the application of robust decision-making approaches to adequately consider deep uncertainties in natural resource management. Yet, applications have until now hardly addressed the forest management context.

Aims

This paper seeks to (i) assemble different definitions of uncertainty and draw recommendation to deal with the different levels in decision making, (ii) outline those applications that adequately deal with deep uncertainty, and (iii) systematically review the applications to natural resources management in order to (iv) propose adoption in forest management.

Methods

We conducted a systematic literature review of robust decision-making approaches and their applications in natural resource management. Different levels of uncertainty were categorized depending on available knowledge in order to provide recommendations on dealing with deep uncertainty. Robust decision-making approaches and their applications to natural resources management were evaluated based on different analysis steps. A simplified application to a hypothetical tree species selection problem illustrates that distinct robustness formulations may lead to different conclusions. Finally, robust decision-making applications to forest management under climate change uncertainty were evaluated and recommendations drawn.

Results

Deep uncertainty is not adequately considered in the forest management literature. Yet, the comparison of robust decision-making approaches and their applications to natural resource management provide guidance on applying robust decision making in forest management regarding decision contexts, decision variables, robustness metrics, and how uncertainty is depicted.

Conclusion

As forest management is characterized by long decision horizons, inflexible systems, and multiple objectives, and is subject to deeply uncertain climate change, the application of a robust decision-making framework using a global, so-called satisficing robustness metric is recommended. Further recommendations are distinguished depending on the decision context.

     

Adaptation of Asia-Pacific forests to climate change

Climate change is a threat to the stability and productivity of forest ecosystems throughout the Asia-Pacific region. The loss of forests due to climate-induced stress will have extensive adverse impacts on biodiversity and an array of ecosystem services that are essential for the maintenance of local economies and public health. Despite their importance, there is a lack of decision-support tools required to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on Asia-Pacific ecosystems and economies and to aid in the development of regionally appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies. The project Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change, summarized herein, aims to address this lack of knowledge and tools and to provide support for regional managers to develop effective policy to increase the adaptive capacity of Asia-Pacific forest ecosystems. This objective has been achieved through the following activities: (1) development of a high-resolution climate downscaling model, ClimateAP, applicable to any location in the region; (2) development of climate niche models to evaluate how climate change might affect the distribution of suitable climatic conditions for regionally important tree species; (3) development and application of forest models to assess alternative management strategies in the context of management objectives and the projected impacts of climate change; (4) evaluation of models to assess forest fire risk and the relationship between forest fire and climate change; (5) development of a technique to assess ecosystem carbon storage using LiDAR; and (6) evaluation of how vegetation dynamics respond to climate change using remote sensing technology. All project outputs were developed with a focus on communication and extension to facilitate the dissemination of results to regional forest resource managers to support the development of effective mitigation and adaptation policy.     

气候变化情景下河北省3个优势树种适宜分布区预测

【目的】探究河北省3个优势树种分布与气候因子的关系,并进行适宜分布区预测,以期为评估气候变化的影响及制定适宜未来气候变化的森林经营策略提供理论依据。【方法】依据河北省森林资源调查数据,选取华北落叶松、蒙古栎和油松这3个主要树种,采用ClimateAP气候模型生成当前及未来(2040—2069年和2070—2099年)与降水和温度相关的10个气候因子,利用MaxEnt生态位模型和基于3个气候变化情景(温室气体最低排放,RCP2.6;中度稳定排放,RCP4.5;高度排放,RCP8.5)的一致性预测,模拟3个树种当前和未来的潜在适宜分布区,并采取响应曲线分析主要气候因子对3个树种适宜分布区的影响。【结果】3个树种MaxEnt模型的受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC值)都大于0.85,具有较好的预测能力;当前3个树种主要适宜分布在燕山和太行山地区;影响3个树种分布的主导气候因子存在差异,华北落叶松主要受小于0℃年积温和湿季降水量的影响,蒙古栎则主要受最热月平均气温、Hargreaves水分亏缺和湿季降水量的影响,而最热月平均气温、湿季降水量、大于5℃年积温和年均气温是影响油松分布的主要气候因子;一致性预测表明,在2040—2069年,河北省华北落叶松分布面积明显扩大,蒙古栎分布面积变化较小,而油松分布面积显著缩小;在2070—2099年,3个树种的适宜分布面积都显著缩小,幅度均超过3%。【结论】随着气候变化,3个树种均有向高海拔地区迁移的趋势,但在经纬度方向上的分布变化不大。在未来3个树种的适宜分布区,采取人工手段(如造林)辅助树种扩散以适应气候变化,有利于提高森林生产力,构建健康稳定的森林生态系统。     

Modeling the effects of climate change and management on the dead wood dynamics in boreal forest plantations

The present research examines the joint effects of climate change and management on the dead wood dynamics of the main tree species of the Finnish boreal forests via a forest ecosystem simulator. Tree processes are analyzed in stands subject to multiple biotic and abiotic environmental factors. A special focus is on the implications for biodiversity conservation thereof. Our results predict that in boreal forests, climate change will speed up tree growth and accumulation ending up in a higher stock of dead wood available as habitat for forest-dwelling species, but the accumulation processes will be much smaller in the working landscape than in set-asides. Increased decomposition rates driven by climate change for silver birch and Norway spruce will likely reduce the time the dead wood stock is available for dead wood-associated species. While for silver birch, the decomposition rate will be further increased in set-aside in relation to stands under ordinary management, for Norway spruce, set-asides can counterbalance the enhanced decomposition rate due to climate change thereby permitting a longer persistence of different decay stages of dead wood.     

Effects of using certain tree species in forest regeneration on volume growth,timber yield,and carbon stock of boreal forests in Finland under different CMIP5 projections

We studied how the use of certain tree species in forest regeneration affected the volume growth, timber yield, and carbon stock of boreal forests in Finland under the current climate (1981–2010) and recent-generation global climate model (GCM) predictions (i.e., multi-model means and individual GCMs of CMIP5), using the representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 over the period 2010–2099. Forest ecosystem model simulations were conducted on upland national forest inventory plots throughout Finland. In a baseline management regime, forest regeneration was performed by planting the same tree species that was dominant before the final cut. In alternative management regimes, either Scots pine, Norway spruce, or silver birch were planted on medium-fertility sites. Other management actions over rotation were done as in a baseline management. Compared to baseline management, an increased planting of birch resulted in relative sense highest increase in the volume growth, timber yield, and carbon stock in forests in the south, especially under severe climate projections (e.g., multi-model mean RCP8.5, and GCMs such as HadGEM2-ES RCP8.5 and GFDL-CM3 RCP8.5). This situation was opposite for Norway spruce. In the north, the volume growth, timber yield, and carbon stock of forests increased the most under severe climate projections (e.g., multi-model mean RCP8.5 and CNRM-CM5 RCP8.5), regardless of tree species preference. The magnitude of the climate change impacts depended largely on the geographical region and the severity of the climate projection. Increasing the cultivation of birch and Scots pine, as opposed to Norway spruce, could be recommended for the south. In the north, all three species could be cultivated, regardless of the severity of climate change.     

Simulating the effects of climate change on forest dynamics on Gongga Mountain,Southwest China

Forest gap models are important tools for assessing the impact of global climate change on forest dynamics of tree species composition and size structure. In this study, the FAREAST gap model was used to examine the response of forest dynamics on Gongga Mountain, which is located on the southeastern fringe of the Tibetan Plateau, under three climate change scenarios. The simulated results showed that the climax community of the deglaciation slash would be mixed species of Picea brachytyla, Tsuga chinensis, and Pinus densata under climate change scenarios, as opposed to the pure Abies fabri forest under the current climate. Climate change also drove replacement of Populus purdomiis by Betula utilis, which became the most abundant pioneer tree species on the deglaciation slash. Under scenarios of climate change, three responses of the four typical forests distributed between 2200 and 3580 m above sea level are observed, such as dieback of today’s forest at 2200 and 3150 m, gradual change of the species composition at 2780 m, and afforestation at 3580 m. It is worth noting that the scenarios of climatic change are of inherent uncertainty, in the same way as the formulation of the ecological factors used in the models. It is suggested that simulations not be interpreted as predictions of the future development of the forest, but as a means of assessing their sensitivity to climate change. It is concluded that mountainous forests are quite sensitive to climate change.     

Dynamics of forest composition and growth in Alabama of USA under human activities and climate fluctuation

Integrated analysis of forest dynamics under both anthropogenic influence and climatic change is crucial to indicating emergent patterns and meeting objectives of climate change mitigation. In this study, a long-term forest inventory data (1960s-2010s) in Alabama, USA were analyzed for patterns in relation to human activities and climate fluctuation. The results indicated that the species (or species groups) composition in Alabama’s forests was significantly different between all reported times, except for 2012–2015 based on Simpson’s index. Eastern hemlock trees declined dramatically. The overall forest communities became less homogeneous. Positive or negative correlation existed in the abundance of many species. The distribution of tree abundance along diameters for tree species followed exponential models. Both annual tree mortality and net growth rate increased from the 1960s. The total volume of growing stock increased from 14.4 million cubic feet in 1963 to 39.5 million cubic feet in 2016. The average volume of growing stock per acre also increased linearly with annual average air temperature, but not with annual precipitation. Based on the patterns of Alabama’s forests under climate fluctuation and human activities, some suggestions on developing strategies for the sustainability of Alabama forest were discussed.     

Agroecology as a Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Smallholders of Tehri-Garhwal in the Indian Himalayan Region

Climate change is expected to increase temperatures and rainfall in the Himalayan region and place stress on local livelihoods by affecting agro-biodiversity, crop yield, cropping patterns and the species composition of forests. This paper reports findings of a survey of farmers into the role of agroforestry or ‘agroecological intensification’ for reducing climate change vulnerability. The survey was conducted in the Tehri-Garhwal district of Uttarakhand, a Himalayan State of India. Existing traditional agroforestry was found to provide ecosystem services to farmers at various scales ranging from the global to household level, contributing to the livelihoods and resilience of the farmers to climate change. The strategies of farmers for adaptating to climate change include adoption of agroforestry due to its diversified agricultural and forest products and services. The analysis suggests that policies should consider agroforestry as a tool for improving the livelihood and resilience to climate change of farmers.     

湖南森林恢复与发展项目经营模式设计

为恢复雪灾受损森林资源,提高湖南森林生态系统对气候灾害的适应性和抗逆性,在世界银行贷款湖南森林恢复与发展项目支持下,以发挥森林生态效益为目标、以多功能森林经营为指导思想、以近自然经营技术为实现途径,考虑林分现状和适地适树原则,提出了以造林恢复经营、补植和天然更新等为手段相结合的8种森林经营模式,以增加树种多样性、改善林分结构,充分发挥森林的多功能效应。旨在为保障湖南国土生态安全,促进绿色湖南建设,以及应对全球气候变化和增加森林碳汇贡献力量。     

树种选择与配置对森林生态系统服务的影响

我国森林面积和蓄积量连续增长,但造林树种单一、林分幼龄化、径级持续偏小、单位面积蓄积量低。在气候变化挑战及全球经济一体化大背景下,如何发挥森林在木材生产、生物多样性保护、固碳、涵养水源及社会文化等方面的多重服务功能以满足经济社会发展对森林的多元化需求,是我国现代林业建设的当务之急。文中通过梳理国内外相关文献,分析不同树种与配置模式和不同森林经营选择对森林生态系统服务的影响,以及对森林生态系统服务影响的模拟预测方法与工具,进而总结当前研究与实践的总体趋势,以期为我国树种选择及其优化配置、增强森林生态系统服务功能提供决策参考。     

A United States national prioritization framework for tree species vulnerability to climate change

Climate change is one of several threats that will increase the likelihood that forest tree species could experience population-level extirpation or species-level extinction. Scientists and managers from throughout the United States Forest Service have cooperated to develop a framework for conservation priority-setting assessments of forest tree species. This framework uses trait data and predictions of expected climate change pressure to categorize and prioritize 339 native tree species for conservation, monitoring, management and restoration across all forested lands in the contiguous United States and Alaska. The framework allows for the quantitative grouping of species into vulnerability classes that may require different management and conservation strategies for maintaining the adaptive genetic variation of the species within each group. This categorization is based on risk factors relating to the species’ (1) exposure to climate change, (2) sensitivity to climate change, and (3) capacity to adapt to climate change. We used K-means clustering to group species into seven classes based on these three vulnerability dimensions. The most vulnerable class encompassed 35 species with high scores for all three vulnerability dimensions. These will require the most immediate conservation intervention. A group of 43 species had high exposure and sensitivity, probably requiring conservation assistance, while a group of 69 species had high exposure and low adaptive capacity, probably needing close monitoring. This assessment tool should be valuable for scientists and managers determining which species and populations to target for monitoring efforts and for pro-active gene conservation and management activities.     

Effects of climate change on typical forests in northeastern China

By using the forest gap model-FAREAST, we simulated the effects of future climate change on forest composition and forest biomass of typical forests in northeastern China. We selected three different climate change scenarios, developed from GCMs results, of the ECHAM5-OM and HadCM3 models: the current climate, a warmer climate and a state of changing precipitation with higher temperatures. The results are as follows: if the climate does not change, the composition and forest biomass of the northeastern forests will retain their dynamic balance. A warmer climate is detrimental to the major forest types in the northeast. The percentage of major conifers is expected to decrease, along with a proportional increase of some broad-leafed species. The southern treeline of the mixed broad-leafed tree species/Korean pine forest in the temperate zone will tend to move northward. The warmer the climate, the more distinct the transition. If, furthermore, we were to take account of rainfall, the treeline in the northeast will tend to move northward. Rainfall seems to have little effect on the mixed broad-leafed tree species/Korean pine forests in the temperate zone.