Reviewing model application to support animal health decision making

Animal health is of societal importance as it affects human welfare, and anthropogenic interests shape decision making to assure animal health. Scientific advice to support decision making is manifold. Modelling, as one piece of the scientific toolbox, is appreciated for its ability to describe and structure data, to give insight in complex processes and to predict future outcome. In this paper we study the application of scientific modelling to support practical animal health decisions. We reviewed the 35 animal health related scientific opinions adopted by the Animal Health and Animal Welfare Panel of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). Thirteen of these documents were based on the application of models. The review took two viewpoints, the decision maker's need and the modeller's approach. In the reviewed material three types of modelling questions were addressed by four specific model types. The correspondence between tasks and models underpinned the importance of the modelling question in triggering the modelling approach. End point quantifications were the dominating request from decision makers, implying that prediction of risk is a major need. However, due to knowledge gaps corresponding modelling studies often shed away from providing exact numbers. Instead, comparative scenario analyses were performed, furthering the understanding of the decision problem and effects of alternative management options. In conclusion, the most adequate scientific support for decision making - including available modelling capacity - might be expected if the required advice is clearly stated.     

Zero-inflated models for identifying disease risk factors when case detection is imperfect: Application to highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in Thailand

Logistic regression models integrating disease presence/absence data are widely used to identify risk factors for a given disease. However, when data arise from imperfect surveillance systems, the interpretation of results is confusing since explanatory variables can be related either to the occurrence of the disease or to the efficiency of the surveillance system. As an alternative, we present spatial and non-spatial zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regressions for modelling the number of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks that were reported at subdistrict level in Thailand during the second epidemic wave (July 3rd 2004 to May 5th 2005). The spatial ZIP model fitted the data more effectively than its non-spatial version. This model clarified the role of the different variables: for example, results suggested that human population density was not associated with the disease occurrence but was rather associated with the number of reported outbreaks given disease occurrence. In addition, these models allowed estimating that 902 (95% CI 881–922) subdistricts suffered at least one HPAI H5N1 outbreak in Thailand although only 779 were reported to veterinary authorities, leading to a general surveillance sensitivity of 86.4% (95% CI 84.5–88.4). Finally, the outputs of the spatial ZIP model revealed the spatial distribution of the probability that a subdistrict could have been a false negative. The methodology presented here can easily be adapted to other animal health contexts.     

From 'ecopathology' to 'agroecosystem health'

The 'epidemiologic revolution' of the 1960s arose in response to the inability of reductionist methods to provide practical solutions to the complex problems of health and production in livestock systems. In a farm, there are not only interactions between animal factors and herd husbandry factors such as feeding, housing, and microbiological environment, but also with a number of other 'non-animal' factors. For this reason, a 'global' or 'holistic' approach, aimed at explaining animal health status within the overall dynamic of a livestock production system, was developed in France under the title of 'ecopathology'. In ecopathology, the discipline of epidemiology is integrated into a systemic approach, including: the development of a preliminary conceptual model, sampling based on the structure of the livestock production system, the establishment of a field study by a multidisciplinary team, the organization and management of the animal health and production information, data analysis, the distribution of results to all participants and the development of a preventive medicine programme. The farm is also influenced by the social, economic and environmental setting to which it belongs. To account for this, a change of scale is necessary. The three elements of the livestock production system considered in ecopathology (farmer, herd and resources), at the level of the agroecosystem become a human community (farmers, consumers, decision-makers), an animal population, and the complex of human, social and economic conditions within the system. The concept of agroecosystem health is closely linked to the overall principle of improving the sustainability of the system. This and other measures of the health status of an agroecosystem can be assessed with methods developed by epidemiologists and other disciplines within a system's perspective. In this systems view, ecopathology provides a basis for assessing herd health whereas agroecosystem health develops the broader context into which ecopathology contributes.     

Policy-driven development of cost-effective, risk-based surveillance strategies

Animal health and residue surveillance verifies the good health status of the animal population, thereby supporting international free trade of animals and animal products. However, active surveillance is costly and time-consuming. The development of cost-effective tools for animal health and food hazard surveillance is therefore a priority for decision-makers in the field of veterinary public health. The assumption of this paper is that outcome-based formulation of standards, legislation leaving room for risk-based approaches and close collaboration and a mutual understanding and exchange between scientists and policy makers are essential for cost-effective surveillance. We illustrate this using the following examples: (i) a risk-based sample size calculation for surveys to substantiate freedom from diseases/infection, (ii) a cost-effective national surveillance system for Bluetongue using scenario tree modelling and (iii) a framework for risk-based residue monitoring. Surveys to substantiate freedom from infectious bovine rhinotracheitis and enzootic bovine leucosis between 2002 and 2009 saved over 6 million € by applying a risk-based sample size calculation approach, and by taking into account prior information from repeated surveys. An open, progressive policy making process stimulates research and science to develop risk-based and cost-efficient survey methodologies. Early involvement of policy makers in scientific developments facilitates implementation of new findings and full exploitation of benefits for producers and consumers.     

Canine hematology and biochemistry reference values.

Reference hematology and biochemistry values for 53 variables are presented from 51 clinically healthy dogs, 26 female and 25 male, approximately six to 24 months of age and of mixed breed. These dogs were sampled because of their good health status and the opportunity to collect the volume of blood required to complete the variable analysis of interest. Collection of blood specimens and laboratory analysis was done in a standard described manner, the latter including a continuing quality control program. For each variable the data were examined for homogeneity and when present, outliers (n = 9) were excluded. Parametric analysis was used to calculate the reference interval for those variables which had a Gaussian distribution or could be changed to a Gaussian distribution by any of four transformations. For those variables in which Gaussian distribution was not present or attained, nonparametric analysis was used. Due to the small size of the population sample, the uncertainty of breed and the exact age of each dog, breed, age and sex effects were not examined. Reference values should be used to assist interpretation of observations obtained from an animal or animals of comparable origin, i.e. similar subpopulation, and only if the same laboratory techniques are followed. Until each laboratory is able to generate reference values using adequate sample size and current methodology for the numerous subpopulations of interest, reference intervals such as these are useful to clinicians and researchers.     

动物抗寄生虫药物作用机理研究进展

动物抗寄生虫药物主要用于防制动物寄生虫病,是保障畜牧业健康发展和公共卫生安全的有效手段。抗寄生虫药物的药效建立在药物分子与寄生虫或动物机体不同靶组织、靶细胞间相互作用的基础上。由于抗寄生虫药物种类多样,抗寄生虫机理复杂。随着新抗寄生虫药物的开发和科学研究的深入,尤其是化学合成和生物制药技术的发展,抗寄生虫药物的品种和数量都在不断的增加,新的药物结构和作用靶标不断发现,作用机理研究也不断深入。作者主要对抗寄生虫药物的作用机理研究进展进行综述。     

Research Progress on Action Mechanism of Animal Anti-parasitical Drugs

Animal anti-parasitical drugs are mainly used to prevent and control animal parasitosis, and also an effective way to protect the healthy development of animal husbandry and public health security.The efficacy of anti-parasitical drugs depends on the interaction between drug molecular and different target tissues and target cells of parasite or animal.Because of the variety of anti-parasitical drugs, the anti-parasitical mechanisms are complex.With the development of new anti-parasitical drugs and the depth of scientific research, especially the development of chemical synthesis and biological pharmaceutical technology, the variety and quantity of anti-parasitical drugs constantly increase.With the discovery of new drug structure and its action target, the study on the mechanism is constantly deep.The author mainly summarized the research progress on action mechanism of anti-parasitical drugs.     

A stochastic model for simulation of the economic consequences of bovine virus diarrhoea virus infection in a dairy herd

A dynamic, stochastic model simulating the technical and economic consequences of bovine virus diarrhoea virus (BVDV) infections for a dairy cattle herd for use on a personal computer was developed. The production and state changes of the herd were simulated by state changes of the individual cows and heifers. All discrete events at the cow level were triggered stochastically. Each cow and heifer was characterized by state variables such as stage of lactation, parity, oestrous status, decision for culling, milk production potential, and immune status for BVDV. The model was controlled by 170 decision variables describing biologic and management variables including 21 decision variables describing the effect of BVDV infection on the production of the individual animal. Two markedly different scenarios were simulated to demonstrate the behaviour of the developed model and the potentials of the applied modelling principle. The validation problem in relation to the model was discussed. A comparison between real and simulated data using data from a published case report was shown to illustrate how user acceptance can be obtained.     

Multifunctional activity of vitamin E in animal and animal products: A review

Vitamin E is an essential nontoxic fat‐soluble micronutrient whose effects on livestock performance and products can be attributed to its antioxidant and nonantioxidant properties. Although it is needed in small quantity in the diet, its roles in livestock production are indispensable as it is required in boosting performance, nutritional qualities, and yield of animal and animal products. The dietary or oral supplementation of vitamin E is essential in reducing lipid oxidation in muscle, egg, and dairy products as well as lowering cholesterol concentrations and improving antioxidant status of livestock. Evidence has shown that bioavailability of vitamin E–enriched animal products could serve as an invaluable nutritional benefit to consumers; especially those in regions of limited resources where vitamin E deficiencies pose a risk that may be detrimental to some cellular activities of the body and on human health. It is therefore important to redirect research on the impact of vitamin E supplementation as antioxidant on livestock performance and animal products.     

Record systems for beef stocker production enterprises.

The accelerated growth of individual animal identification systems is likely to generate significant amounts of data that need to be synchronized, filtered, analyzed, managed, and acted on in real time by data-mining software and animal health professionals who possess a dual understanding of beef systems production and technology associated with management information and record-keeping systems. Ultimately, the resulting information can be used seamlessly throughout a vertically coordinated production system to conduct management and animal health compliance audits, initiate timely animal and product recall measures, and reveal complex biologic and economic relations.     

Why has oral rehydration for calves and children diverged: direct vs. indirect criteria of efficacy

Oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for acute diarrhoea has advanced in contrary directions in humans and animals; the unresolved question is whether this reflects species differences or a divergence in scientific outlook. This review suggests that the explanation lies in the fact that developments in veterinary ORT have the advantage of utilising more reliable criteria than those available from human patients. The dilemma for human ORT is that the validity of systematic reviews and meta-analyses are undermined when the underlying data only reflect crucial variables indirectly and unreliably. It is therefore possible that the approaches currently used to treat calves, which are radically different from those used by paediatricians, could potentially benefit children and the necessary additional research should be initiated. At a time when the value of animal models of human disease is frequently questioned, the benefits of being able to utilise disease models in the target species for clinical research deserve to be emphasised.     

Brazilian foot and mouth disease status and meat exportation to the European Union

The aim of this study was to define the differences between the Brazilian states that export and do not export meat to the European Union (EU) and to identify the variables that are important to meet the export requirements. Infrastructure and computerization of the control of animal transit in Brazil that impact on regional health status were evaluated and linked to other variables such as status for foot and mouth disease (FMD) and qualification to export meat to EU. Variables related to transit control of bovines implemented by the state agencies of animal health and inspection in each Brazilian state were evaluated. Using a discriminant analysis, four variables were selected that explained the variation between Brazilian states that were “free” and “not free” of FMD while another four were selected to explain the variation between the zones “approved” and “not approved” to export meat to the EU, including number of official veterinarians, total transit of bovines and buffaloes, total number of animal transit certificates issued for bovine and buffaloes at the state or zone level, and total number of municipalities in the state or zone. It was possible to correctly discriminate between “free” and “not free” FMD states or zones. Variables related to animal transit are important in assessing the state for the classification of animal health situation and for EU approval for the exportation of meat.     

The association between submission counts to a veterinary diagnostic laboratory and the economic and disease challenges of the Ontario swine industry from 1998 to 2009

An intuitive assumption is to believe that the number of submissions made to a veterinary diagnostic laboratory is dictated by the financial state of the industries using the laboratory. However, no research is available to document how the economics of a food animal industry affects laboratory submissions and therefore disease monitoring and surveillance efforts. The objective of this study was to determine if economic indices associated with the Ontario swine industry can account for the variability seen in these submissions. Retrospective swine submissions made to the Animal Health Laboratory at the University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario from January 1998 to July 2009 were compiled. The following economic, demographic, and health variables impacting Ontario swine production were selected for analysis: auction price, lean-hog futures, currency exchange rate, price of corn, an outbreak of porcine circovirus type-2 associated diseases (PCVAD), government incentive program, number of farms in province, and average farm size. All independent variables identified by unconditional associations to have a significance of P≤0.2 with the outcome of monthly submission count were included in a multivariable negative binomial model. A final model was identified by a backwards elimination procedure. A total of 30,432 swine submissions were recorded. The mean frequency of monthly submissions over 139months was 212.9 (SD=56.0). After controlling for farm size, the number of pigs in Ontario, higher submission counts were associated with a weaker CAD$ versus US$, higher auction prices, and a PCVAD outbreak (P<0.001). The results suggest that both economic volatility and disease outbreaks in the Ontario swine industry drive submissions to the laboratory. In conclusion, lab submissions are a useful source of animal health data for disease surveillance; however, surveillance activities should also monitor the economics of the industry.     

Vaccine-associated adverse events.

Although vaccination plays a vital role in maintaining animal health, there are risks associated with this medical procedure. Veterinarians are beginning to reexamine dogmatic vaccine protocols and consider both risks and benefits of vaccination, with special emphasis on adverse event information generated by practitioner experience. The current status of postmarketing surveillance for commercially available veterinary vaccines is presented, along with a discussion of the strengths and limitations of surveillance programs. An overview of adverse events commonly reported by veterinarians is included, along with practical information on how veterinarians can share their observations and learn about adverse events reported by their colleagues.     

Hepatitis E virus as an emerging zoonotic pathogen

Hepatitis E outbreaks are a serious public health concern in developing countries. The disease causes acute infections, primarily in young adults. The mortality rate is approximately 2%; however, it can exceed 20% in pregnant women in some regions in India. The causative agent, hepatitis E virus (HEV), has been isolated from several animal species, including pigs. HEV genotypes 3 and 4 have been isolated from both humans and animals, and are recognized as zoonotic pathogens. Seroprevalence studies in animals and humans indirectly suggest that HEV infections occur worldwide. The virus is primarily transmitted to humans via undercooked animal meats in developed countries. Moreover, transfusion- and transplantation-mediated HEV infections have recently been reported. This review summarizes the general characteristics of hepatitis E, HEV infection status in animals and humans, the zoonotic transmission modes of HEV, and HEV vaccine development status.     

Stakeholder position paper: economist's perspectives on antibiotic use in animals

Economics seeks to understand and explain the allocation of resources within society and to suggest appropriate policy to achieve goals such as optimal efficiency. Relating antimicrobial use and antibiotic resistance is a complex task and requires very clear and careful analyses of many relationships. To address these relationships, antibiotic use data must be linked with other basic data. Ideally, a complex relational database needs to be developed. These must include data on: antimicrobial usage, farm-level animal productivity, basic disease, basic farm management, consumer response, and antimicrobial resistance at multiple levels (farm, during process, on a variety of both animal, vegetable and grain-derived food products, from humans, from other animal species, and from the environment) among other data. Such a complex relational database can help with the attribution and risk assessment process. Also these linked data are needed in order to develop the economic production models and other economic models, as well as control for confounding so that there is both adequate and appropriate statistical control. Antimicrobial usage data may become economically important for reasons unrelated to animal productivity and animal health. With expanding global trade of animals and animal products, there have been changes in restrictions and regulations associated with the movement of products. Future trade opportunities may be linked to antimicrobial usage. The European Union banned the use of antimicrobials for growth-promoting purposes based on perceived risk and on public opinion. Monitoring antimicrobial use, disease occurrence, and resistance patterns following changes in usage that are a result of either policy changes or response to new information will help in the understanding of the complex relationships in microbial and disease ecology. There is a lot of evidence substantiating the productivity and profitability gains to producers from the use of antimicrobials. There is also evidence for the potential gains to consumers, both from an economic perspective as well as from a health perspective. Economists can help identify the implications of these relationships both at a micro- and macro-economic level; both relative to producer and to consumer welfare. We are at a pivotal time in history with sufficient analytical expertise and tools to address this complex issue from a scientific perspective. Linking various agencies so there can be coordination of data collection and data sharing is needed to successfully address this topic.     

Animal-based national surveillance for zoonotic disease: quality, limitations, and implications of a model system for monitoring rabies

Surveillance for zoonotic diseases among wildlife is a research and public health challenge. The inherent limitations posed by the requisite human–animal interactions are often undefined and underappreciated. The national surveillance system for animal rabies in the United States was examined as a model system; reporting of animal rabies is legally mandated, each case of rabies is laboratory confirmed, and data have been consistently collected for more than 50 years. Factors influencing the monthly counts of animal rabies tests reported during 1992–2001 were assessed by univariate and multivariable regression methods. The suitability of passively collected surveillance data for determining the presence or absence of the raccoon-associated variant of rabies within states and within individual counties was assessed by determining critical threshold values from the regression analyses. The size of the human population and total expenditures within a county accounted for 72% and 67%, respectively, of the variance in testing. The annual median number of rabies tests performed was seven for counties without rabies, 22 for counties with non-raccoon rabies, and 34 for counties with raccoon rabies. Active surveillance may be required in locales with sparse human populations when a high degree of confidence in the status of rabies is required.     

Development of antiparasitic drugs in the 21st century

Prospects for discovering new antiparasitic drugs for veterinary medicine in the coming century will be determined by economic, social and scientific factors. Consolidation in the pharmaceutical industry in general, and the animal health industry in particular, changes the business conditions in which drug discovery for veterinary medicine occurs. Social pressures on traditional animal agriculture and companion animal ownership have shifted the interest of animal companies primarily to pet medicine. Antiparasitic drug discovery is more than ever targeted to the most lucrative market segments, but the excellence of available drugs, and the apparent lack of resistance in important parasites, reduces industrial motivation to invest in parasitology. Veterinary parasitologists in academia will still have the chance to interact with their industrial counterparts in the traditional ways of supporting drug discovery and development. Nonetheless, there are many new opportunities to expand the research horizons of veterinary parasitology to strengthen the case for retaining a significant presence in the animal health industry.