中美植物有害生物风险分析体系研究比较

美国是植物有害生物风险分析研究领先的国家之一,我国的有害生物风险分析研究工作也已走过近20年的历程.本文从法律法规、组织机构和人力资源、工作程序和技术体系、应用功能等4方面对中美两国的植物有害生物风险分析体系进行全面研究和比较,以期借鉴美国的一些先进经验,不断完善我国的风险分析体系.     

中国与主要贸易国家植物有害生物风险分析体系比较研究

美国、新西兰、澳大利亚是中国植物及其产品的主要贸易国家,也是在植物有害生物风险分析领域领先的国家。本文从法律法规、组织机构、工作程序等方面对美国、新西兰、澳大利亚和中国的植物有害生物风险分析体系进行比较研究,以期借鉴国外先进经验,为我国继续完善植物有害生物风险分析体系提供参考。     

欧洲和地中海植物保护组织有害生物风险分析工作介绍

本文从有害生物风险分析工作组、经费、程序和平台四个方面,介绍了欧洲和地中海植物保护组织的有害生物风险分析工作管理情况。从有害生物风险分析指南、定量有害生物风险分析技术标准以及有害生物风险分析的起点类型三方面,介绍了欧洲和地中海植物保护组织的有害生物风险分析工作情况。借鉴欧洲和地中海植物保护组织经验,提出进一步完善中国有害生物风险分析的四点建议,包括进一步完善我国的有害生物风险评估工作机制、加快统一完善定量PRA技术标准、建立统一的PRA信息平台,以及进一步加强口岸管控的检疫性有害生物及外来入侵物种名单的维护。     

有害生物风险分析工作回顾

结合本人40余年在植物检疫工作中的学习经历和实践体会,本文主要概括了"有害生物风险分析"(PRA)的发展背景和内涵特征:"有害生物风险分析"是植物检疫的一项重要而关键的科学技术,也是一项发展植物检疫事业的基础性研究任务;它起步于有害生物检疫重要性评价,经历了从零风险到可接受风险的观念转变,又扩展到公共安全风险分析;"有害生物风险分析"内容广泛、方法多样,发展了从定性到定量的综合集成方法。最后,提出对"有害生物风险分析"发展现状的思考,以及未来进一步改进的设想。     

樱桃番茄境外(越南)种植的有害生物风险分析

根据国际植物检疫措施标准(ISPM)规定的有害生物风险分析(PRA)程序,结合相关文献,从传入的可能性、定殖的可能性、扩散的可能性和经济重要性4个方面对在越南种植的樱桃番茄进行有害生物风险分析,提出应予以关注的检疫性有害生物名单及风险等级,并就风险管理提出措施和建议。     

植保有害生物风险分析理论体系的探讨

植保有害生物风险分析需要正确地收集大量数据。并急需建立实用的或可操作的有害生物风险分析体系，针对这种情况，本文将风险相关因素归纳为天气，地理和生物3大类，提出了有害生物的天气-地理-生物复合体系。该体系以生态网为出发点，对有害生物风险条件，事件及风险种类按层次和等级进行风险因子划分，然后进行风险因子模拟，风险分析和计算，实现有害生物的多因子调控管理。从而在风险分析，风险预测和风险决策的基础上，完成从风险确定，风险评价，风险管理到风险交流的风险全过程管理。     

城市绿地有害生物风险分析体系构建及应用

为探索建立统一的城市绿地有害生物风险评价尺度,引入有害生物风险分析(PRA)理论.基于国际PRA规定程序,结合城市绿地生态系统特点及模糊数学理论,利用德尔菲法及层次分析法,探讨城市绿地有害生物风险分析体系工作程序、评价指标和评价值的计算方法.利用此方法评价了上海城市绿地中新发现的16种害虫和7种病害的风险性.结果表明:咖啡豹蠹蛾等3种害虫、柳杉赤枯等4种病害风险指数在0.6～0.8,风险级别为高;棉褐带卷叶蛾等9种害虫、杨树锈病等3种病害风险指数在0.4～0.6,风险级别为中;木樨瘿螨等4种害虫风险指数在0.2～0.4,风险级别为低.根据不同风险等级,提出相关风险管理策略.     

外来有害生物风险分析的研究进展及其对我国的启示

外来有害生物能够严重影响一个国家或地区经济与环境的可持续发展,有害生物风险分析的目的是制定积极主动的外来有害生物防治策略,本文从入侵途径、传播扩散以及经济影响等风险分析的主要评估对象阐述国内外关于有害生物风险分析的研究进展,以及对我国相关研究的启示。     

广西红火蚁定性和定量的风险分析研究

有害生物风险分析（PRA）是国际植物保护公约（IPPC）和WTO规则中评估生物危险性的重要方法,是开展有害生物检疫管理的基础工作。在广泛收集和掌握红火蚁的国内外分布状况、潜在危害性、危害对象的经济重要性、定殖扩散的可能性、危险性和管理难度的基础上,本文参照国际上有害生物风险分析指标体系,通过定性和定量风险分析研究,对广西红火蚁的风险做出科学的综合评价,得出风险评估值R=2.28。风险分析表明,红火蚁在广西属于高度危险性有害生物。因此,通过风险分析进一步科学论证了防控红火蚁的重要性、必要性和紧迫性。此分析方法也为今后评估外来有害生物风险提供了重要借鉴。     

斑马片病入侵中国的风险分析及管理对策

根据国际植物检疫措施标准(ISPM)第2号有害生物风险分析框架和第11号检疫性有害生物风险分析程序,从斑马片病的国内外分布状况、潜在危害性、受害栽培作物的经济重要性、传播扩散的可能性及危险性管理难度5个方面对其在中国的风险性进行了多指标方法分析。结果表明,斑马片病在中国的综合风险值R为2.48,其病原Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum为高度危险的有害生物。针对该病提出了相应的风险管理对策。     

我国有害生物风险分析(PRA)的历史与现状

本文回顾了中国有害生物风险分析工作将近一个世纪的历史 ,介绍了以动植物检疫实验所为主完成的 3 8个风险分析报告、繁殖材料风险分析工作进展和最近完成的小麦矮腥黑穗病菌定量风险分析 ,在总结最近 2 0年PRA工作的基础上 ,提出了我国PRA工作中存在的问题及对策     

Evaluation of probabilistic risk assessment of pesticides in the UK: chlorpyrifos use on top fruit

The use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for examining chemical impacts has become an important area of debate within the European Union. This paper describes a case study on probabilistic techniques to assess pesticide risks in the UK aquatic environment. The main aim of this paper is to demonstrate both the potential strengths and weaknesses of PRA for assessing pesticides when compared with the conventional deterministic approach, and to examine whether PRA is useful within the European regulatory context. The organophosphate insecticide, chlorpyrifos, was selected as a model compound and toxicity exposure ratios calculated using Monte Carlo analysis and different distributions of spray drift and toxicity values following application to top fruit. Chlorpyrifos is highly toxic to arthropods but less toxic to fishes. Species sensitivity followed a log-normal distribution when fitted to all toxicity data. Toxicity data quantity had little influence on species sensitivity distribution model parameters when n was greater than 10 species. Below this, estimates were less accurate and precise, possibly because of the inclusion of data from many different sources. Estimates of chlorpyrifos exposure derived from the standard spray drift model differed substantially from measurements of chlorpyrifos in European surface waters. When a distribution based on measured concentrations was used in a PRA, the risk of acute fish mortality was low, and the risk of acute arthropod mortality was lower than in other scenarios, although not negligible. If PRA is used to assess pesticides, risk managers need further guidance on how to conduct a PRA and what constitutes 'unacceptable risk' under EC Directive 91/414/EEC, as judgement is required when simple trigger values are no longer used.     

外来入侵物种三裂叶豚草(Ambrosia trifida L.)及其风险分析

外来入侵物种严重威胁着农业生产、生态安全及人类健康,已成为世界各国广泛关注和研究的热点。本文对外来杂草三裂叶豚草(Ambrosia trifida L.)的起源和分布、生物生态学特性、经济和生态影响及其控制管理措施等进行了系统综述。根据生物生态学特性、潜在风险及管理控制的难度等指标,初步建立了外来杂草的风险评估体系。应用该体系对三裂叶豚草进行了风险评估,得出其风险值为83,属高度危险的检疫性有害生物。     

云南外来入侵有害生物多指标综合评价体系的建立

以国际植物检疫措施标准(ISPMs)为依据,通过对云南外来有害生物入侵现状的分析,总结国内外在有害生物风险分析中的研究成果,建立云南外来入侵有害生物多指标综合评价体系。该体系中的目标层(R值)包含了5个准则层(Pi),其下级为指标层(Pij),由17个多指标因子组成,并根据各层次之间的相互关系建立数学模型。R值的分值范围在0和3之间,并对其进行4个等级分级:0.5(不包含)以下为低度风险,0.5~1.5(不包含)为中度风险,1.5~2.5(不包含)为高度风险,2.5以上为极高风险,以此为据确定云南入侵有害生物风险等级。     

What criteria are relevant for predicting the invasive capacity of a new agricultural weed? The case of invasive American species in France

In Europe, exotic species are assessed for their potential threat only after they have already become weeds. To test hypotheses underlying risk assessment procedures, 274 North and South American exotic species naturalized in France were compared to differentiate environmental from agricultural weeds and to characterize weeds of several crops. Most agricultural exotic weeds belonged to the Asteraceae and the Poaceae, but proportionally to the total number of invasive species from a family the most successful families were the Amaranthaceae, Euphorbiaceae and Poaceae. Weed status in North and South America was the best predictor of agricultural weed status in France, and a pre-1900 date of introduction was associated with a greater likelihood of having become a major weed. The characteristics of 78 species present in field crops were examined in relation to management practices. In annual crops, the life-cycle compatibility of weeds appeared to be the main factor of selection. Exotic species differed in their C4 photosynthesis pathway in maize and rice. In vineyards, many ecological strategies are possible because the habitat is heterogeneous. Intrageneric comparison of exotic and native species showed a superior relative growth rate and higher biomass production under nutrient-rich conditions for exotics. However, it is still difficult to find a predictive function that fits well with all observed cases of weed invasion.     

Ecological aspects of pest risk assessment1

The primary purpose of a national plant protection organization is to prevent the spread of quarantine pests. Such pests are characterized according to their predicted capability to be of economic importance in new areas. The determination of the potential of an exotic pest to cause crop losses is a preliminary component in a pest risk assessment (PRA) process. The initial PRA step includes two distinct ecological analyses. The first must predict the expected extent and frequency to which a new pest population will attain and/or surpass the economic injury level. This is necessary to justify the classification of an exotic pest as being of quarantine significance. Secondly, a PRA must estimate the likelihood of establishment for those quarantine pests for which an entry pathway exists. Both require that bioclimatic comparisons be made between the areas of origin and distinct target destinations. The bioclimatic methodologies of the past are currently being enhanced to specify more precisely‘quarantine pest zones of ecological equivalency’, i.e. areas within which the behavior of a specific quarantine pest can be expected to be the same. The information derived from studies that provide a basis for forecasting the behavior of indigenous pests can also be used in PRA.     

重大外来入侵害虫三叶斑潜蝇在中国的风险性分析

根据国际植物检疫措施标准(ISPM)规定的有害生物风险性分析(PRA)程序,利用相关风险性分析模型,从国内外分布状况、潜在的危害性、受害栽培寄主的经济重要性、传播扩散的可能性及危险性管理难度5个方面对三叶斑潜蝇在我国的风险性进行定性、定量分析,其综合风险值R为2.15,符合检疫性有害生物的条件,据此提出了2条相关风险管理备选对策,并进行效率和影响分析,以期使风险减少到可接受的水平。     

黄瓜绿斑驳花叶病毒在我国定殖和扩散的风险性分析

参照国际上有害生物风险性分析（pest risk analysis, PRA）方法,从定性分析和定量评估两个层面对黄瓜绿斑驳花叶病毒（Cucumber green mottle mosaic virus, CGMMV）的危险性进行了综合评价。从CGMMV的地理分布、侵入后定殖、扩散的可能性等对其进行研究分析,认为CGMMV具有广泛的适宜寄主、极强的适生性及多种传播方式,风险值R为2.39,已给我国葫芦科作物如西瓜造成巨大经济损失,因此断定其定殖、扩散的可能性极高,属于高度危险性的有害生物,应加强对其的风险管理。