基于潜在蒸散和干燥度指数的河北省农业气候区划

基于Penman-Monteith模型的潜在蒸散和降水量之比计算得到的干燥度指数作为衡量区域干湿状况的重要指标,已成为全球变化研究中的重要气候指标之一.本文利用温度气候带和以干燥度指数划分的干湿气候区作为二级气候区划指标,开展区域尺度的河北省农业气候分区,将河北省农业气候区划分为暖温带半湿润区,冀北中山中温带半湿润偏旱区、太行山暖温带半湿润偏旱区和滨海平原暖温带半湿润偏旱区,冀北高原中温带半干旱区、太行山北段中温带半干旱区和冀中、南平原暖温带半干旱区,中温带半干旱偏旱区.该分区为合理配置农业生产、改进耕作制度以及引入和推广新品种提供气候依据,同时也为相关部门采取应对措施减轻旱涝灾害及其不利影响提供参考.     

Attribution analysis based on Budyko hypothesis for land evapotranspiration change in the Loess Plateau,China

Land evapotranspiration (ET) is an important process connecting soil, vegetation and the atmosphere, especially in regions that experience shortage in precipitation. Since 1999, the implementation of a large-scale vegetation restoration project has significantly improved the ecological environment of the Loess Plateau in China. However, the quantitative assessment of the contribution of vegetation restoration projects to long-term ET is still in its infancy. In this study, we investigated changes in land ET and associated driving factors from 1982to 2014 in the Loess Plateau using Budyko-based partial differential methods. Overall, annual ET slightly increased by 0.28 mm/a and there were no large fluctuations after project implementation. An attribution analysis showed that precipitation was the driving factor of inter-annual variability of land ET throughout the study period; the average impacts of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and vegetation restoration on ET change were 61.5%, 11.5% and 26.9%, respectively. These results provide an improved understanding of the relationship between vegetation condition change and climate variation on terrestrial ET in the study area and can support future decision-making regarding water resource availability.     

近30年来甘肃气候变化趋势及其对干湿状况的影响

以1971-2000年甘肃地区33个气象台站的观测数据为基础,应用1998年FAO推荐的Penman-Monteith模型,根据甘肃实际状况进行了辐射项校正,模拟了甘肃地区近30年的潜在蒸散,并且根据Vyshotskii模型计算了干湿指数。通过线性拟合分析了甘肃省近30年来气候变化趋势,采用Mann-Kendall方法进行了趋势检验。利用基于薄盘样条函数的Anusplin模型对地表干湿指数进行了空间栅格化。结果发现:甘肃地区近30年气候变化总体特征是气温呈上升趋势,降水呈减少趋势,潜在蒸散呈增加趋势,北部与南部站点有由干变湿的趋势,而中部的部分站点有由湿变干的趋势,气候变化及地表干湿状况的区域差异比较明显。     

近50年来塔里木盆地南、北缘干湿状况变化趋势分析

全球变暖大背景下,塔里木盆地边缘绿洲气候变化趋势研究已成为研究的热点。文中利用塔里木盆地南、北缘17个典型绿洲气象站1959-2008年的气象资料,使用联合国粮农组织(FAO)推荐的Penman-Monteith公式,计算近50年潜在蒸散量,定义了地表干燥度指数。在此基础上,对塔里木盆地南、北缘,近50年气候变化特征及其成因进行对比分析。结果表明:塔里木盆地南、北缘气候变化与全球气候变化趋势基本一致,但又具有明显的区域性特点:塔里木盆地南、北缘潜在蒸散量均在波动中呈减少趋势,南缘递减速度比北缘快;干燥度指数也均在波动中呈缓慢减小趋势,其中南缘干燥度指数递减速度比北缘快;总之塔里木盆地南、北缘绿洲有缓慢向暖湿转化的迹象,这对气候极端干燥的塔里木盆地边缘绿洲生态环境的改善和农业生产有积极的影响。     

基于SPOT/NDVI华北地区植被变化动态监测与评价

利用1998-2011年SPOT NDVI数据反映华北地区植被覆盖变化情况,结合该地区土地覆盖数据以及1982-2011年84个气象站点的气温和降水数据,分别从时间和空间两个方面对其进行植被动态监测与评价,并简要分析其变化原因。结果表明:1)从时间上来看,华北地区NDVI在1998-2011年总体呈增长趋势,表明该地区植被覆盖情况整体上得到改善,其中,森林和农田NDVI增长最快;2)从空间上来看,华北地区地表植被覆盖得到改善的区域比退化区域面积要大,其中,森林和农田的恢复效果最为明显,而灌丛、草地、沙漠退化面积均超过改善面积,表明华北地区水土流失和荒漠化现象依然严峻;3)在华北地区气候长期趋于暖干化的背景下,华北植被变化与降水变化关系比与气温变化关系密切,表明植被覆盖变化受降水影响较大,此外,人类活动也是引起植被覆盖变化的重要驱动因子。     

Vegetation cover change and the driving factors over northwest China

In this paper the spatio-temporal variation of vegetation cover in northwest China during the period of 1982-2006 and its driving factors were analyzed using GIMMS/NDVI data. The annual average NDVI was increased with a rate of 0.0005/a in northwest China and there was an obvious difference between regions. The trend line slopes of NDVI were higher than 0.0005 in the Tianshan Moutains and Altay Mountains of Xinjiang,the Qilian Mountains of Gansu and the eastern part of Qinghai,which indicated the vegetation cover was significantly increased in these areas. The trend line slopes of NDVI were lower than 0.0005 in the southern region of Qinghai,the border regions of Shaanxi and Ningxia,the parts of Gansu and Tarim Basin,Turpan and Tuoli in Xinjiang,which indicated the vegetation cover was declined in these areas. The NDVI of woodland,grassland and cultivated land had an ascending tendency during the study period. The study shows that the vegetation cover change was caused by both natural factors and human activities in northwest China. The natural vegetation change,such as forests was influenced by climate change,while human activities were the main reason to the change of planting vegetation. The changes of vegetation covers for different elevations,slopes and slope aspects were quite different. When the elevation is exceeded to 4,000 m,the NDVI increasing trend was very low;the NDVI at the slope of less than 25° was increased by the ecological construction;the variation of NDVI on sunny slope was stronger than that on shady slope. The temperature rose significantly in recent 25 years in northwest China by an average rate of 0.67oC/10a,and precipitation increased by an average rate of 8.15 mm/10a after 1986. There was positive correlation between vegetation cover and temperature and annual precipitation changes. Rising temperature increased the evaporation and drought of soils,which is not conducive to plant growth,and the irrigation in agricultural areas reduced the correlation between agricultural vegetation NDVI and precipitation. The improvement of agricultural production level and the projects of ecological construction are very important causes for the NDVI increase in northwest China,and the ecological effect of large-scale ecological construction projects has appeared.     

近50年中国干旱半干旱地区降水量与潜在蒸散量分析

在中国干旱半干旱地区日气象数据分析的基础上,依据彭曼公式计算出潜在蒸散量,以及生长季内的年平均降水量与潜在蒸散量二者的差值,利用空间分异分析,气候倾向率检测,以及时间序列MK突变检验等方法分析了降水量与潜在蒸散量的时空变化特征。结果表明:总体来看,我国干旱半干旱区50年来东、西部的气候变化有明显的差异,西北地区降水量增加,潜在蒸散量减少,干旱化程度在减轻,且变化十分显著。而东部干旱半干旱区降水量减少,潜在蒸散量增加,干旱化严重。     

Modeling and analyzing supply-demand relationships of water resources in Xinjiang from a perspective of ecosystem services

Water shortage is one bottleneck that limits economic and social developments in arid and semi-arid areas.As the impacts of climate change and human disturbance intensify across time,uncertainties in both water resource supplies and demands increase in arid and semi-arid areas.Taking a typical arid region in China,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,as an example,water yield depth(WYD)and water utilization depth(WUD)from 2002 to 2018 were simulated using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model and socioeconomic data.The supply-demand relationships of water resources were analyzed using the ecosystem service indices including water supply-demand difference(WSDD)and water supply rate(WSR).The internal factors in changes of WYD and WUD were explored using the controlled variable method.The results show that the supplydemand relationships of water resources in Xinjiang were in a slight deficit,but the deficit was alleviated due to increased precipitation and decreased WUD of irrigation.WYD generally experienced an increasing trend,and significant increase mainly occurred in the oasis areas surrounding both the Junggar Basin and Tarim Basin.WUD had a downward trend with a decline of 20.70%,especially in oasis areas.Water resources in most areas of Xinjiang were fully utilized and the utilization efficiency of water resources increased.The water yield module in the InVEST model was calibrated and validated using gauging station data in Xinjiang,and the result shows that the use of satellite-based water storage data helped to decrease the bias error of the InVEST model by 0.69×10⁸m³.This study analyzed water resource supplies and demands from a perspective of ecosystem services,which expanded the scope of the application of ecosystem services and increased the research perspective of water resource evaluation.The results could provide guidance for water resource management such as spatial allocation and structural optimization of water resources in arid and semi-arid areas.     

基于气温的潜在蒸散发量估算方法在我国西北干旱地区的应用比较

根据石羊河流域两个气象站的历史数据,选取7种基于气温的潜在蒸散发量估算方法,以FAO56-PM法计算的ET作为参考值,对其进行比较分析,最后再用实测蒸发皿蒸发量对这些方法在西北干旱地区的适用性进行评价。结果表明:在两个站使用7种方法的初始参数时,多数产生较大误差。校正参数后两个站所有方法在估算逐月ET和月平均ET时都得到明显改进。改进的Romanenko法在两个站所有月份以及全年误差都最小,其次是Hargreaves和Linacre法。用实测小型蒸发皿蒸发量进行验证时,改进的Romanenko法与其相关系数最高,为0.97,其次是Linacre和Hargreaves法。就气温法而言,校正参数后的Romanenko,Hargreav-es和Linacre法可在此研究区域用于估算ET,并建议优先选择Romanenko法,与小型蒸发皿的折算系数适宜选取0.60。     

Effects of climate change and land-use changes on spatiotemporal distributions of blue water and green water in Ningxia,Northwest China

Water resources are a crucial factor that determines the health of ecosystems and socio-economic development; however, they are under threat due to climate change and human activities. The quantitative assessment of water resources using the concept of blue water and green water can improve regional water resources management. In this study, spatiotemporal distributions of blue water and green water were simulated and analyzed under scenarios of climate change and land-use changes using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Northwest China, between 2009 and 2014. Green water, a leading component of water resources, accounted for more than 69.00% of the total water resources in Ningxia. Blue water and green water showed a single peak trend on the monthly and annual scales during the study period. On the spatial scale, the southern region of Ningxia showed higher blue water and green water resources than the northern region. The spatiotemporal distribution features of blue water, green water, and green water flow had strong correlations with precipitation. Furthermore, the simulation identified the climate change in Ningxia to be more influential on blue water and green water than land-use changes. This study provides a specific scientific foundation to manage water resources in Ningxia when encountered with climate change together with human activities.     

气候变化与人类活动对内蒙古沙漠区气候生态变化的影响

本文通过对内蒙古阿拉善沙漠区气候变迁与生态环境变化的分析,分析气候变化和人类活动对该地区气候生态的影响,探讨该区域生态环境恶化的可能原因。     

蒸散发估算方法及其驱动力研究进展

蒸散发是水文循环的重要组成部分,也是度量土壤-植被-大气耦合系统中水文与能量传输的关键指标。因此,准确估算蒸散发,充分理解蒸散发的驱动力对干旱半干旱区水资源高效利用具有重要意义。本文对区域蒸散发估算方法进行了总结与归纳,并从气候变化和人类活动两个角度总结了干旱半干旱地区蒸散发变化的驱动力。最后,评论了当前蒸散发估算方法及其驱动力研究存在的问题,提出未来应加强蒸散发估算模型的改进与完善,合理规划土地利用,提高水资源利用效率,从而促进区域的可持续发展。     

Spatial and temporal variations of vegetation cover and the relationships with climate factors in Inner Mongolia based on GIMMS NDVI3g data

Variation in vegetation cover in Inner Mongolia has been previously studied by the remote sensing data spanning only one decade. However, spatial and temporal variations in vegetation cover based on the newly released GIMMS NDVI3g data spanning nearly thirty years have yet to be analyzed. In this study, we applied the methods of the maximum value composite(MVC) and Pearson's correlation coefficient to analyze the variations of vegetation cover in Inner Mongolia based on GIMMS NDVI3g data spanning from 1982 to 2013. Our results indicate that the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) increased at a rate of 0.0003/a during the growing seasons despite of the drier and hotter climate in Inner Mongolia during the past three decades. We also found that vegetation cover in the southern agro-pastoral zone significantly increased, while it significantly decreased in the central Alxa. The variations in vegetation cover were not significant in the eastern and central regions. NDVI is positively correlated with precipitation(r=0.617, P=0.000) and also with air temperature(r=0.425, P=0.015), but the precipitation had a greater effect than the air temperature on the vegetation variations in Inner Mongolia.     

中国西北干旱区1981～2001年NDVI对气候变化的响应分析

气候变化在不同的区域有着不同的特征,对植被也带来不同的影响,对不同地区气候变化特征的认识及植被变化的相应分析,可使我们对全球变化对干旱区的影响有更深入的认识。本文通过定量分析西北干旱区1981~2001年NOAA/AVHRR数据和同期的气象资料,借助于遥感技术和数理统计知识,分析了1981~2001年我国西北干旱区NDVI变化及其与气候变化的关系。结果显示:1981-2001年间西北干旱区年际最大NDVI的变化与气候变化具有明显的相关性,尤其是对新疆的南、北疆来说,NDVI的变化受到年降水量、年均温和空气相对湿度的影响比较显著,NDVI与年降水量和相对湿度的相关程度要明显比与年均温的相关程度高。甘肃内蒙古的河西走廊和青海的柴达木地区NDVI没有明显的变化趋势,同时这两个地区也是年降水量变化最小的地区。从而得出一个结论:降水资源是我国西北干旱区植被生长和生态建设的最重要气象因子,只有充分、合理地利用"降水"这种天然水资源才能最终实现中国西北干旱区环境、社会与经济的可持续发展。     

Spatial-temporal variations of ecological vulnerability in the Tarim River Basin,Northwest China

As the largest inland river basin of China, the Tarim River Basin (TRB), known for its various natural resources and fragile environment, has an increased risk of ecological crisis due to the intensive exploitation and utilization of water and land resources. Since the Ecological Water Diversion Project (EWDP), which was implemented in 2001 to save endangered desert vegetation, there has been growing evidence of ecological improvement in local regions, but few studies have performed a comprehensive ecological vulnerability assessment of the whole TRB. This study established an evaluation framework integrating the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy method to estimate the ecological vulnerability of the TRB covering climatic, ecological, and socioeconomic indicators during 2000-2017. Based on the geographical detector model, the importance of ten driving factors on the spatial-temporal variations of ecological vulnerability was explored. The results showed that the ecosystem of the TRB was fragile, with more than half of the area (57.27%) dominated by very heavy and heavy grades of ecological vulnerability, and 28.40% of the area had potential and light grades of ecological vulnerability. The light grade of ecological vulnerability was distributed in the northern regions (Aksu River and Weigan River catchments) and western regions (Kashgar River and Yarkant River catchments), while the heavy grade was located in the southern regions (Kunlun Mountains and Qarqan River catchments) and the Mainstream catchment. The ecosystems in the western and northern regions were less vulnerable than those in the southern and eastern regions. From 2000 to 2017, the overall improvement in ecological vulnerability in the whole TRB showed that the areas with great ecological improvement increased by 46.11%, while the areas with ecological degradation decreased by 9.64%. The vegetation cover and potential evapotranspiration (PET) were the obvious driving factors, explaining 57.56% and 21.55% of the changes in ecological vulnerability across the TRB, respectively. In terms of ecological vulnerability grade changes, obvious spatial differences were observed in the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the TRB due to the different vegetation and hydrothermal conditions. The alpine source region of the TRB showed obvious ecological improvement due to increased precipitation and temperature, but the alpine meadow of the Kaidu River catchment in the Middle Tianshan Mountains experienced degradation associated with overgrazing and local drought. The improved agricultural management technologies had positive effects on farmland ecological improvement, while the desert vegetation in oasis-desert ecotones showed a decreasing trend as a result of cropland reclamation and intensive drought. The desert riparian vegetation in the lower reaches of the Tarim River was greatly improved due to the implementation of the EWDP, which has been active for tens of years. These results provide comprehensive knowledge about ecological processes and mechanisms in the whole TRB and help to develop environmental restoration measures based on different ecological vulnerability grades in each sub-catchment.     

Spatiotemporal variations of evapotranspiration and reference crop water requirement over 1957-2016 in Iran based on CRU TS gridded dataset

Agriculture needs to produce more food to feed the growing population in the 21^st century. It makes the reference crop water requirement (WREQ) a major challenge especially in regions with limited water and high water demand. Iran, with large climatic variability, is experiencing a serious water crisis due to limited water resources and inefficient agriculture. In order to overcome the issue of uneven distribution of weather stations, gridded Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data was applied to analyze the changes in potential evapotranspiration (PET), effective precipitation (EFFPRE) and WREQ. Validation of data using in situ observation showed an acceptable performance of CRU in Iran. Changes in PET, EFFPRE and WREQ were analyzed in two 30-a periods 1957-1986 and 1987-2016. Comparing two periods showed an increase in PET and WREQ in regions extended from the southwest to northeast and a decrease in the southeast, more significant in summer and spring. However, EFFPRE decreased in the southeast, northeast, and northwest, especially in winter and spring. Analysis of annual trends revealed an upward trend in PET (14.32 mm/decade) and WREQ (25.50 mm/decade), but a downward trend in EFFPRE (-11.8 mm/decade) over the second period. Changes in PET, EFFPRE and WREQ in winter have the impact on the annual trend. Among climate variables, WREQ showed a significant correlation (r=0.59) with minimum temperature. The increase in WREQ and decrease in EFFPRE would exacerbate the agricultural water crisis in Iran. With all changes in PET and WREQ, immediate actions are needed to address the challenges in agriculture and adapt to the changing climate.     

近50年中国西北地区干湿演变的时空特征及其可能成因探讨

在全球大幅度变暖的背景下,西北地区的气候变化及其响应受到越来越多的关注。为了进一步探讨其气候变化过程与机理在时间与空间上变化的差异性,选取中国西北地区(80°E～115°E,32°N～50°N)1961-2004年140个气象台站逐日降水、日照、风速、水汽压、温度等资料,根据Penman公式计算了潜在蒸散量,并根据其与降水的关系建立了干燥度指数。采用自组织特征映射神经网络的方法,根据上述多种物理量进行西北地区内部的气候区划,寻找不同的区域异常中心。在此基础上,采用正交小波分解的方法,对各异常区域中心的干燥度序列进行分析。最后对北大西洋涛动指数对我国西北地区的区域气候变化的影响进行多时间尺度的相关分析,并从大气环流异常的角度解释其影响机制。     

石羊河流域参考作物蒸散发时空变化及其对气候变化的响应

基于石羊河流域8个气象站点1984—2019年逐日气象资料,分析参考作物蒸散量(ET0)时空变化规律,多种定性与定量分析方法结合,揭示ET0变化与气象因素间的相关关系,确定主导气象要素,探明ET0变化对主导因子敏感程度及贡献.结果表明:石羊河流域ET0上升趋势显著,流域大部分区域达到0.05显著性水平;空间上呈现由南向...     

Monitoring the impact of climate change andhuman activities on grassland vegetation dynamics in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateauof China during 2000-2015

Climate change and human activities can influence vegetation net primary productivity (NPP), a key component of natural ecosystems. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China, in spite of its significant natural and cultural values, is one of the most susceptible regions to climate change and human disturbancesin the world. To assess the impact of climate change and human activities on vegetation dynamics in the grassland ecosystems ofthe northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, we applied a time-series trend analysis to normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) datasets from 2000 to 2015 and compared these spatiotemporal variations with trends in climatic variables over the same time period. The constrained ordination approach (redundancy analysis) was used to determine which climatic variables or human-related factors mostly in?uenced the variation of NDVI. Furthermore, in order to determine whether current conservation measures and programs are effectivein ecological protection and reconstruction, we divided the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau into two parts: the Three-River Headwater conservation area (TRH zone) in the south and the non-conservation area (NTRH zone) in the north. The results indicatedan overall (73.32%)increasing trend of vegetation NPP in grasslands throughout the study area. During the period 2000-2015, NDVI in the TRH and NTRH zones increased at the rates of 0.0015/aand 0.0020/a, respectively.Specifically, precipitation accounted for 9.2% of the total variation in NDVI, while temperature accounted for 13.4%. In addition, variation in vegetation NPP of grasslands responded not only to long- and short-term changes in climate, as conceptualized in non-equilibrium theory, but also to the impact of human activities and their associated perturbations. The redundancy analysis successfully separated the relative contributions of climate change and human activities, of whichvillage populationand agricultural gross domestic product were the two most important contributors to the NDVI changes, explaining 17.8% and 17.1% of the total variationof NDVI (with the total contribution >30.0%), respectively. The total contributionpercentages of climate change and human activitiesto the NDVI variation were27.5% and 34.9%, respectively, inthe northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Finally, our study shows that the grassland restoration in the study area was enhanced by protection measures and programs in the TRH zone, which explained 7.6% of the total variation in NDVI.