Quantitative estimates of the risk of new outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease as a result of burning pyres

The risk of dispersing foot-and-mouth disease virus into the atmosphere, and spreading it to susceptible holdings as a result of burning large numbers of carcases together on open pyres, has been estimated for six selected pyres burned during the 2001 outbreak in the UK. The probability of an animal or holding becoming infected was dependent on the estimated level of exposure to the virus predicted from the concentrations of virus calculated by the Met Office, Bracknell. In general, the probability of infection per animal and per holding decreased as their distance from the pyre increased. In the case of two of the pyres, a holding under the pyre plumes became infected on a date consistent with when the pyre was lit. However, by calculating their estimated probability of infection from the pyres it was concluded that it was unlikely that in either case the pyre was the source of infection.     

Spread of foot-and-mouth disease from the burning of animal carcases on open pyres

Preliminary results indicate that no evidence has been found to support the spread of FMD virus from the burning of animal carcases on open pyres. This finding is subject to a number of assumptions, and is based on a limited number of case studies.     

Investigation of the possible spread of foot-and-mouth disease virus by the burning of animal carcases on open pyres

An atmospheric dispersion model was used to predict the airborne spread and concentrations of foot-and-mouth disease virus within the plumes generated by 11 pyres built to burn infected carcases during the epidemic of 2001 in the UK. On the basis of assumptions about the quantity of virus emitted during the three hours after the pyres were built and the threshold concentration of virus required to cause an infection in cattle, it was concluded that none of the disease breakdowns which occurred under the plumes was due to the spread of virus from the pyres.     

Quantitative risk assessment of foot-and-mouth disease introduction into Spain via importation of live animals

Spain has been a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD)-free country since 1986. However, the FMD epidemics that recently affected several European Union (EU) member countries demonstrated that the continent is still at high risk for FMD virus (FMDV) introduction, and that the potential consequences of those epidemics are socially and financially devastating. This paper presents a quantitative assessment of the risk of FMDV introduction into Spain. Results suggest that provinces in north-eastern Spain are at higher risk for FMDV introduction, that an FMD epidemic in Spain is more likely to occur via the import of pigs than through the import of cattle, sheep, or goats, and that a sixfold increase in the proportion of premises that quarantine pigs prior to their introduction into the operation will reduce the probability of FMDV introduction via import of live pigs into Spain by 50%. Allocation of resources towards surveillance activities in regions and types of operations at high risk for FMDV introduction and into the development of policies to promote quarantine and other biosecurity activities in susceptible operations will decrease the probability of FMD introduction into the country and will strengthen the chances of success of the Spanish FMD prevention program.     

An investigation of 11 outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease in villages in northern Thailand

The results of investigations of 11 outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease in villages in northern Thailand are described. The causative virus was Asia in one in seven outbreaks, Type O in two outbreaks and unknown in two outbreaks. The most probable sources of the outbreaks were co-mingling of cattle and/or buffalo with livestock from an infected neighbouring village (four) and recent introductions of infected cattle from a public livestock market (two) while the probable source could not be determined in five outbreaks. Attack rates in cattle and buffalo ranged from 0.28% to 50.9% but no pigs became sick during any of the outbreaks. Most outbreaks lasted 4 weeks or less. Adult cattle and buffalo were at higher risk of becoming a case when compared with work cattle. Beef cattle were at higher risk than buffalo and adult cattle and buffalo were at higher risk than calves less than 1 year of age. There was significant clustering of cases within households. Serological investigations indicated that many unaffected animals were probably not exposed to virus during the outbreaks. We concluded that close contact between animals was the main method of spread and that differences in attack rates between animal classes reflected differences in animal management. We further concluded that simple quarantine of early cases during outbreaks is likely to be effective in reducing spread within and between villages.     

The minor role of pigs in outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease of northern Thailand

SUMMARY: A study was undertaken in northern Thailand to examine the involvement of pigs in outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Data were collected by surveying selected villages, by serological monitoring of pigs and by investigating outbreaks. Fifty-three of 58 villages (91%) surveyed reported that pigs did not develop FMD during the most recent outbreak. The source of 49/60 (82%) outbreaks was attributed to either recent purchases of infected cattle and buffalo or commingling of cattle and buffalo with stock from an infected neighbouring village. One of 60 villages (1.7%) reported that the source was introduced infected pigs. There was no association between the various hypothesised risk factors relating to the management of pigs and the frequency of FMD outbreaks in the survey. The percentage of seropositive pigs during 3 rounds of serological monitoring conducted at 6-monthly intervals in selected villages was 3.5%, 2.6% and 0%, respectively. No clinically affected pigs were observed in 11 outbreak investigations. It was concluded that pigs did not commonly become infected when there were outbreaks of FMD in village cattle and buffalo in northern Thailand. This was probably due to the pig feeding and housing practices employed by villagers that protected pigs from exposure to virus from infected cattle or buffalo, or their products.     

Estimating the risk of importation of foot-and-mouth disease into Europe

The opinions of a number of recognised world experts on foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) were sought in order to answer key questions relating to the importation of the disease into European countries from countries outside Europe. In addition, their opinions were sought on where in Europe a primary outbreak of FMD was most likely to occur and the number of outbreaks likely to occur within European countries in the next five years. The Balkans group of countries was considered to be the most likely group within Europe to have a primary outbreak of FMD and also most likely to have the highest number of primary outbreaks. Turkey was considered to be the country outside Europe which was most likely to be the source of an outbreak within Europe as a whole, and the illegal importation of livestock was considered to be the most likely route of introduction of FMD into Europe. Results specific to the Islands group of countries, which included the UK and Ireland, suggested that this group was likely to have a mean of one primary outbreak of FMD in the five years from September 2000, and that the importation of foodstuffs by people entering those countries from Turkey was the most likely source of an outbreak.     

口蹄疫新型疫苗研究进展

口蹄疫是一种急性、热性、传染性强、致病率高的动物性疫病,对偶蹄动物威胁极大,每年都给畜牧业带来严重的经济损失。随着分子技术的发展,新型口蹄疫研究不断深入,文中就目前几种新型口蹄疫疫苗进行阐述。     

Clinical and laboratory investigations of five outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease during the 2001 epidemic in the United Kingdom

Clinical and laboratory investigations of five outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) were made during the early stages of the 2001 epidemic in the UK. The first outbreak, confirmed on February 20, was at an abattoir in Essex which specialised in the processing of culled sows and boars. On February 23, the disease was confirmed at a pig farm in Northumberland which held cull sows and boars fed on waste food; the findings indicated that it was the first of the five premises to be infected. The disease had probably been present since early February, and it was the most likely origin of the epidemic. The other premises investigated were a waste food-fed cull sow/boar pig unit in Essex, approximately 30 km from the abattoir, which was probably infected at the same time or before the abattoir, a sheep and cattle farm approximately 6 km from the Northumberland pig farm, which was probably infected by airborne virus from it in the period immediately before February 13, and a sheep and cattle farm in Devon which had clinical disease from February 20 and was probably infected by sheep transported from Northumberland on February 13 which arrived on February 15.     

Evaluation of the transmission risk of foot-and-mouth disease in Japan

The transmission risk of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Japan was evaluated using a mathematical FMD transmission model. The distance-based transmission rate between farms, which was parameterized using the FMD epidemic data in 2010 in Japan, was used to calculate the local-level reproduction numbers—expected numbers of secondary infections caused by one infected farm—for all cattle and pig farms in the country, which were then visualized as a risk map. The risk map demonstrated the spatial heterogeneity of transmission risk in the country and identified risk areas with higher possibility of disease spread. This result suggests that, particularly in high-risk areas, it is important to prepare for the smooth and efficient implementation of control measures against FMD outbreaks.     

Experimental foot-and-mouth disease in fattening pigs, sows and piglets in relation to outbreaks in the field

The progression of foot-and-mouth disease in sows and their litters of piglets following exposure to O1 Lausanne virus has been investigated. The majority of piglets died with acute myocarditis but without developing vesicles. Deaths occurred before and also when sows began showing early evidence of vesicle formation. This clinical picture parallels that seen at the beginning of both the Normandy 1979 and Britanny 1981 epidemics in France and points to the necessity of including foot-and-mouth disease in the differential diagnosis of acute death among cloven-hoofed livestock and furthermore the importance of extending clinical inspections to adult animals on premises when such events take place. In investigations in which the susceptibility of fattening pigs to infection with O1 Lausanne virus given by the intramuscular route was examined it was found that the 50 per cent infective dose was log (10)4.8 TCID50. This finding suggests that large amounts of virus are required for successful initiation of disease. This is more likely to come from animals already infected than by inoculation with contaminated material.     

Use of heterogeneous operation-specific contact parameters changes predictions for foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in complex simulation models

The role of contact parameters in a complex spatial simulation model of foot-and-mouth disease spread was determined by comparing predictions of number of infected premises, epidemic duration, and relative infection risk for different production sectors between a model that included the Full, heterogeneous (differing by production type) type-specific information about animal, vehicle and personnel movement between premises, and models that used partial and homogeneous (similar across production types) weighted-mean or proxy parameter sets for contacts between premises of all types. The model was run using a dataset of known premises locations in a three-county area in the Central Valley of California and categorized into 13 premises types and six production sectors.Results from models run with homogeneous contact parameters were always different from those obtained from the Full model, demonstrating that model predictions are affected by heterogeneity in contact parameters. Models simplified by using weighted-mean parameters predicted fewer infected premises. Models that were simplified by using medium dairy farm or large swine operation proxy parameters predicted longer epidemics with more infected premises, while those using small beef operation proxy parameters predicted shorter epidemics with fewer infected premises. Simplified-parameter models underestimated the impact on the economically important dairy sector, while overestimating the impact on beef and backyard operations. Results establish a need for heterogeneous, operation-specific contact parameters in complex stochastic simulation models that must be weighed against the cost of obtaining and coding premises type-specific contact information.