长春城市发展下的水资源演变特征

本研究选取长春市作为研究区,通过对比分析不同历史时段城市水资源量及其可利用量的变化特征,研究了长春市城市发展过程中的水资源变化特征。研究表明,由于人口增长、经济和产业发展、水污染加剧等综合区域发展因素,以及河流径流量持续减少,导致长春城市人均水资源占有量和可利用量明显下降,城市水资源的供需矛盾突出,本地水资源已无法满足城市发展的需要。同时,城市供需水的结构也发生相应变化,产业用水,以及城市景观用水等其他用水明显增加。长春城市用水已经越来越依赖松花江的客水资源,以远距离调水为特征的城市供水模式在未来将会对该区域社会经济的发展模式产生直接影响,同时对长春城市经济文化的发展以及产业结构调整等均产生重要而深远的影响。     

黑河中游用水与流域水资源利用的博弈分析

水资源问题一直是影响西北干旱区经济、生态、社会持续发展的限制性因素.黑河流域随着人口增长和社会发展,中游水资源的供需矛盾和下游地区生态恶化的问题呈加剧趋势.通过对影响流域水资源因素的博弈分析,解决中游和下游用水的矛盾.从流域内理性行为主体看,需要借助外界力量的引导,处理好区域经济发展与流域水资源利用和保护的关系;从中游与流域关系看,需要水资源管理部门的介入和中游地区的合作,协调好局部与整体的关系;从政府在流域水资源管理的作用看,政府可以通过制定法律法规、行政管理、改进节水技术和宣传教育等手段来协调流域水资源的供需矛盾,提高水资源利用效率,促进流域水资源的可持续利用.     

Surface runoff processes and sustainable utilization of water resources in Manas River Basin, Xinjiang, China

Water is the important resource to guarantee the existence and development of oases in arid areas. To improve the utilization efficiency of water resources in Manas River Basin, this paper investigated the trends and periods of runoff based on the runoff and climate data for the past 50 years. Subsequently, with the socioeconomic and water resources data, we studied a comprehensive evaluation on the water security in this area. The results indicated that the stream flows in the three hydrological stations of Hongshanzui, Kensiwat and Bajiahu have significantly increased and undergone abrupt changes, with periods of 18 and 20 years. According to assessment, water security in the Manas River Basin was at an unsafe level in 2008. In criterion layer, the ecological security index and the index of supply-demand situation are both at the relatively secure level; the quantity index and socioeconomic index of water resources are at the unsafe level and basic security level, respectively. Therefore, in order to achieve sustainable economic and social development within the Manas River Basin, it is vital to take a series of effective measures to improve the status of water security.     

Evaluation of groundwater sustainability based on groundwater age simulation in the Zhangye Basin of Heihe River watershed,northwestern China

Water resources, as the primary limiting factor, constrain the economic and social development in arid inland areas. The Zhangye Basin is a representative area of inland river basins, which is located in the middle parts of the Heihe River watershed, northwestern China. Facing with the huge water shortage, people exploited ground- water at a large scale in recent years. The reducing recharge from surface water and over-exploitation of ground- water led to the decline of groundwater levels and threatened the sustainability of water resources. This study con- structed a conceptual and numerical groundwater flow model and calibrated the model based on the observed wells. A solute transport model was built using MT3DMS to calculate the groundwater age distribution in the Zhangye Basin. The simulated result shows that the youngest groundwater is distributed near the most upstream areas in the model domain, which is less than 1,000 a, older groundwater is distributed in deeper parts of the aquifer and near the discharge outlets, ranging from 6,000 a to over 20,000 a. Spatial variation of groundwater ages in the middle area indicates the recharge diversity between unconfined and confined aquifer. Groundwater age can serve as an indicator to evaluate groundwater’s renewal capacity and sustainability. The formation of groundwater resources in the lower stream area would spend 10,000 a or even more than 20,000 a, so exploitation of groundwater in these areas should be restrained.     

新疆奎屯河流域平原区生态需水研究

新疆奎屯河流域地处我国西北干旱区,随着人口增加和经济发展,国民经济需水与生态需水已成为流域水资源开发利用和生态环境保护的主要矛盾。因此,为了实现奎屯河流域水资源的可持续利用及国民经济的可持续发展,急需对生态需水进行研究。本文以流域社会经济与生态环境协调发展为目标,分析了奎屯河流域存在的主要生态环境问题,在干旱区生态需水概念与分类的基础上,给出了奎屯河流域生态需水的界定范围。在此前提下,从流域生态环境现状及未来需求出发,采用不同的计算方法,对流域生态需水进行了计算,可为流域水资源优化配置及生态环境建设提供科学的依据。结果表明:奎屯河流域生态需水达5.65×108m3,占流域水资源总量16.98×108m3的33.3%,占径流总量15.41×108m3的36.7%。其中天然绿洲生态需水为2.41×108m3,占生态需水的43%;人工绿洲生态需水达3.24×108m3,占生态需水的57%。     

锡林河流域地下水位管理阈值研究

地下水资源是维系锡林河流域社会经济发展和生态环境稳定的关键因子。立足于地下水位这一关键性指标,采用地下水可持续性评价和数值模拟模型相结合的方法,探讨地下水安全利用方式。结果表明:现状年河谷平原的地下水可持续性较强,而开采集中的城市规划区及毛登牧场可持续性一般或较差;丰沛的降水及富水性较强的含水层增强了地下水资源可持续性,但农牧业快速发展和农灌集中开采,破坏了城市规划区周边及毛登牧场的地下水均衡关系,通过设置和对比不同开采方案,限制灌溉规模成为未来解决这一危机的首要途径,即2020年应减少903.23×104m3开采量,其管理地下水位阈值为0.13~0.55 m。     

石羊河流域绿洲开发与水资源利用

在分析石羊河流域水环境近2000多年变化的基础上,重点探讨了近50年来水资源的变化趋势及对环境的影响.结果表明:自20世纪50～90年代,石羊河流域出山地表水资源减少了15.91%,地下水补给资源减少了42.92%,地下水开采量增大了近10倍,泉水资源衰减了84.3%,进入下游的水资源减少了75%.水资源利用格局的变化直接导致了区域性地下水位持续下降和地下水水质的恶化,产生了植被衰亡、下游绿洲萎缩、土壤盐渍化、土地沙漠化等一系列严重的危及人类生存的环境问题,恶化程度已到了"崩溃"的边缘.     

Application of the InVEST model for assessing water yield and its response to precipitation and land use in the Weihe River Basin,China

With realizing the importance of ecosystem services to society, the efforts to evaluate the ecosystem services have increased. As the largest tributary of the Yellow River, the Weihe River has been endowed with many ecological service functions. Among which, water yield can be a measure of local availability of water and an index for evaluating the conservation function of the region. This study aimed to explore the temporal and spatial variation of water yield and its influencing factors in the Weihe River Basin (WRB), and provide basis for formulating reasonable water resources utilization schemes. Based on the InVEST (integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs) model, this study simulated the water yield in the WRB from 1985 to 2019, and discussed the impacts of climatic factors and land use change on water yield by spatial autocorrelation analysis and scenario analysis methods. The results showed that there was a slight increasing trend in water yield in the WRB over the study period with the increasing rate of 4.84 mm/10a and an average depth of 83.14 mm. The main water-producing areas were concentrated along the mainstream of the Weihe River and in the southern basin. Changes in water yield were comprehensively affected by climate and underlying surface factors. Precipitation was the main factor affecting water yield, which was consistent with water yield in time. And there existed significant spatial agglomeration between water yield and precipitation. Land use had little impact on the amount of water yield, but had an impact on its spatial distribution. Water yield was higher in areas with wide distribution of construction land and grassland. Water yield of different land use types were different. Unused land showed the largest water yield capacity, whereas grassland and farmland contributed most to the total water yield. The increasing water yield in the basin indicates an enhanced water supply service function of the ecosystem. These results are of great significance to the water resources management of the WRB.     

基于WEAP的塔里木河干流灌溉满足度模拟

根据《塔里木河流域近期综合治理规划》规定的水权分配方案,以保障干流天然植物正常生长所需水分和塔里木河下游不断流为前提,模拟计算了塔里木河干流现状灌溉需水的满足度。首先,采用定额法估算塔里木河干流天然植被需水量,选用90%保障率最枯月平均流量法,估算塔里木河干流最小河道内生态需水量,得出塔里木河干流不同保障率的水资源可利用量;其次,建立了塔里木河干流水资源评价和规划模型（WEAP）,估算了各灌区基准年的需水量;最后,模拟计算了不同保障率下各灌区逐月的需水满足度。结果表明：随着来水保障率的提高,除了塔里木河下游灌区需水得到满足外,其他各灌区各月需水满足度出现不同程度的下降,生产用水与生态用水矛盾逐渐突出。在平水年、枯水年和特枯水年,灌溉总缺水量分别为0.43×10⁸ m³、1.29×10⁸ m³和2.44×10⁸ m³,缺水最严重的月份主要集中在3月、11月,其次为4月和5月,缺水量最大的为塔里木河中游灌区。     

基于于随机-确定模型的渠井结合灌区用水优化配置

陕西省泾惠渠灌区是一个比较典型的渠井结合灌区.由于该灌区地下水的掠夺式开发利用,使得地下水位总体上呈下降趋势,造成许多环境地质问题.如何合理开发利用地下水,优化配置灌溉水资源,是该渠井结合灌区和谐发展的关键.该研究以Visual Modflow软件为平台,并基于时间序列模型和径向基函数神经网络模型(RBFANN),建立...     

塔里木河下游典型地区地下水位和植被对生态输水的积极响应

由于近50年来人类不合理的水土资源和生物资源的开发利用,导致塔里木河下游大西海子水库以下363km河道断流近30年,地下水位大幅度下降,由地下水维系的植被群落出现严重退化,塔里木河下游绿色走廊生态恶化趋势严重。为此,新疆维吾尔自治区人民政府于2000年4月实施了旨在挽救当地生态环境的塔里木河下游应急生态输水工程,从2000年5月开始至2006年9月,由塔里木河流域管理局与巴州、农二师共同组织8次向塔里木河下游生态应急输水。输水后地下水位大幅升高,相应地,塔里木河下游绿色走廊的生态与环境发生了一系列动态变化。本文根据实测数据和前人研究的资料分析基础上,对塔里木河下游典型地区地下水位和植被对生态输水的积极响应进行探讨。     

新疆车尔臣河及其水资源利用研究

车尔臣河是塔里木盆地东南部最大的一条河流,主要依靠雪冰融水和地下水补给。上游山区由于有库木库里盆地和吐拉盆地对径流的调节,水量各季节变化比较平稳,特别是春季占全年径流量的29%,是新疆春季径流所占比例最大的河流之一,春灌基本不缺水。农业灌溉和生态用水各占水资源总量的一半。绿洲虽不断扩大,但中游地下水位仍较高,植被未发生明显退化,同时还向台特玛湖输送一定水量。因此,对车尔臣河水资源利用应保持原生态状况,不宜人工修建大型水利工程。由于车尔臣河出山口有巨大的洪积冲积扇,渗漏量占出山口径流量约30%,是一个比较理想的天然地下水库,所以今后经济发展用水应以开发地下水为主。     

长春市水资源承载力变动及可持续利用对策

以水资源的供需关系作为衡量水资源承载力的依据,利用统计资料分析了长春市水资源现状.以水资源利用量为因变量,采用主成分分析,在GDP、工业总产值、总人口数、工业需水量和农业需水量等9个与水资源利用量密切相关的指标中筛选出GDP和农业人口两个因子作为自变量,利用多元线性回归分析模型,通过对GDP和农业人口的增长预测了未来10年长春市水资源承载能力.结果表明,未来10年长春市水资源供需矛盾突出,水资源承载能力无法维持经济和社会的正常发展.根据长春市水资源的形势,从开源、节流和管理等方面提出了水资源的可持续利用对策.     

新疆库车县耕地人口承载能力研究

库车县地处南疆腹地。由于库车县人口增长过快 ,造成耕地资源的过度利用 ,导致土地退化、环境恶化。因此 ,确定适当人口规模 ,对库车县耕地资源和干旱区绿洲生态环境保护至关重要。本文根据库车县光、温、水、土生产潜力 ,折算库车县耕地人口承载能力 ,试图确定在不同生活水平要求下库车县适当的人口规模 ,为库车县农业资源的合理开发利用提供参考依据     

基于生态需水配置的额济纳绿洲恢复方案

在简要分析额济纳地区水分-绿洲驱动演变的基础上,分析了额济纳地区未来供水条件,并从生态系统的需水机理出发,提出了基于生态功能考虑的干旱区生态需水量计算方法。以《黑河流域近期治理规划》提出的分水指标和生态恢复水平为依据,综合考虑绿洲规模和生态功能之间的竞争关系,以生态需水为主要配制指标,提出了近期2010年额济纳绿洲的恢复方案。     

应用模糊综合评判方法评价石羊河流域水资源承载力

应用模糊综合评价方法对石羊河流域水资源承载力进行了定量评价。结果表明:石羊河流域综合评分值对z1的隶属度为0.618,综合评分值仅为0.232。这表明石羊河流域水资源开发利用已有相当的规模,进一步开发利用的潜力已相当小,今后要在充分利用自产水资源的前提下,需实施跨流域调水工程。在石羊河流域的5个评价子区中,天祝县的综合评分值最高,为0.57,说明其水资源开发利用有较大的空间;而其他4个子区分值都低于0.34,特别是凉州区、民勤县和金昌市对z3的隶属度接近于0,说明这些区域水资源开发程度已接近于饱和值,承载力相当脆弱。     

渭干河灌区水资源利用研究

渭干河灌区是位于中天山南麓的具有代表性的大型灌溉区,农业自然条件较好。本文通过分析渭干河灌区水资源开发利用现状,评价水资源特征、水土平衡和节水农业的潜力,探讨水资源开发利用中存在的问题,结合渭干河灌区农业发展水平、水资源开发现状和实施方案的可行性,为扩大灌区水资源环境容量,提高水资源承受能力,促进渭干河灌区可持续发展提出了切实可行的水资源可持续利用对策。     

Impacts of climate change and human activities on water resources in the Ebinur Lake Basin,Northwest China

Changing climatic conditions and extensive human activities have influenced the global water cycle. In recent years, significant changes in climate and land use have degraded the watershed ecosystem of the Ebinur Lake Basin in Xinjiang, Northwest China. In this paper, variations of runoff, temperature, precipitation, reference evapotranspiration, lake area, socio-economic water usage, groundwater level and water quality in the Ebinur Lake Basin from 1961 to 2015 were systematically analyzed by the Mann-Kendall test methods(M-K) mutation test, the cumulative levelling method, the climate-sensitive method and land-use change index. In addition, we evaluated the effects of human activities on land use change and water quality. The results reveal that there was a significant increase in temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 2015, despite a decrease in reference evapotranspiration. The Wenquan station was not significantly affected by human activities as it is situated at a higher altitude. Runoff at this station increased significantly with climate warming. In contrast, runoff at the Jinghe station was severely affected by numerous human activities. Runoff decreased without obvious fluctuations. The contributions of climate change to runoff variation at the Jinghe and Wenquan stations were 46.87% and 58.94%, respectively; and the contributions of human activities were 53.13% and 41.06%, respectively. Land-use patterns in the basin have changed significantly between 1990 and 2015: urban and rural constructed lands, saline-alkali land, bare land, cultivated land, and forest land have expanded, while areas under grassland, lake, ice/snow and river/channel have declined. Human activities have dramatically intensified land degradation and desertification. From 1961 to 2015, both the inflow into the Ebinur Lake and the area of the lake have declined year by year; groundwater levels have dropped significantly, and the water quality has deteriorated during the study period. In the oasis irrigation area below the runoff pass, human activities mainly influenced the utilization mode and quantity of water resources. Changes in the hydrology and quantity of water resources were driven primarily by the continuous expansion of cultivated land and oasis, as well as the growth of population and the construction of hydraulic engineering projects. After 2015, the effects of some ecological protection projects were observed. However, there was no obvious sign of ecological improvement in the basin, and some environmental problems continue to persist. On this basis, this study recommends that the expansion of oasis should be limited according to the carrying capacity of the local water bodies. Moreover, in order to ensure the ecological security of the basin, it is necessary to determine the optimal oasis area for sustainable development and improve the efficiency of water resources exploitation and utilization.     

可持续发展能力建设与塔里木河流域水资源管理

可持续水资源管理是实现水资源可持续开发利用的重要保证。长期以来,不适当的水资源管理机制导致塔里木河流域水资源利用极不合理,“上游防洪、下游抗旱”,供需矛盾日益突出。为此,本文在分析可持续发展能力建设与可持续水资源管理的内涵与实现途径的基础上,着重从制度创新、技术进步、公众参与和生态保护等四个方面,深入探讨了提高塔里木河流域可持续水资源管理能力的主要对策。     

阿克苏河流域水资源承载力模糊综合评价

阿克苏河是天山南坡水量最大的河流,是目前塔里木河最大的水量补给来源。由于阿克苏河流大规模的农业开发和不合理的水资源开发利用,不仅使得流域内生态环境脆弱,同时导致了补给干流的水资源减少,使得干流(尤其是在下游)产生了一系列的生态环境问题。本文针对阿克苏河流域水资源的实际情况,依据阿克苏河流域供需状况等,选取人均水资源可利用量,人均供水量、水资源利用率、耕地灌溉率、供水模数、需水模数、生活用水定额、生态用水率等指标,应用模糊综合评价方法综合的评价了流域内现状和不同水平年的水资源承载力,并提出了提高水资源承载力的途径。