Epidemiological simulation modeling and spatial analysis for foot-and-mouth disease control strategies: a comprehensive review

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most serious transboundary, contagious viral diseases of cloven-hoofed livestock, because it can spread rapidly with high morbidity rates when introduced into disease-free herds or areas. Epidemiological simulation modeling can be developed to study the hypothetical spread of FMD and to evaluate potential disease control strategies that can be implemented to decrease the impact of an outbreak or to eradicate the virus from an area. Spatial analysis, a study of the distributions of events in space, can be applied to an area to investigate the spread of animal disease. Hypothetical FMD outbreaks can be spatially analyzed to evaluate the effect of the event under different control strategies. The main objective of this paper is to review FMD-related articles on FMD epidemiology, epidemiological simulation modeling and spatial analysis with the focus on disease control. This review will contribute to the development of models used to simulate FMD outbreaks under various control strategies, and to the application of spatial analysis to assess the outcome of FMD spread and its control.     

The "colorful" epidemiology of PRRS

The paper describes the specifics of the epidemiology of the Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS), that is its "behavior" as a communicable disease in porcine populations, and compares them to the general epidemiological characteristics of communicable diseases. This analysis shows that infection with the PRRS virus "behaves" epidemiologically both as an epidemic and as an endemic disease: on the one hand it can spread like an epidemic in na?ve populations, and on the other it seems to linger on infinitely in an affected population with its clinical expression varying from farm to farm like an endemic disease. The paper tries to draw "epidemiological" conclusions on the general methods for controlling and/or eradicating the disease, and to identify areas of further research.     

Variation in foot-and-mouth disease virus isolates in Kenya: an examination of field isolates by T1 oligonucleotide fingerprinting

Ribonuclease T1 oligonucleotide maps of strains of 4 of the endemic serotypes of foot-and-mouth disease virus isolated in Kenya between 1964 and 1982 have been compared with data obtained in complement-fixation and neutralization tests. There was a continual change in the oligonucleotide maps obtained for all the serotypes examined. This genetic heterogeneity was generally associated with antigenic variation. Viruses isolated during the 12-month course of an epidemic of the SAT 1 serotype showed few changes in their oligonucleotide fingerprints, and were serologically related. These maps form a data base that will be useful in future epidemiological studies on the maintenance and spread of foot-and-mouth disease virus in this region.     

Genetic typing of classical swine fever viruses--a review

Classical swine fever (CSF) is a notifiable disease of domestic pigs and wild boar. It is caused by the highly contagious CSF virus and in its acute form the disease generally results in high morbidity and mortality. Due to the great economical impact an outbreak can cause to the pig industry it is one of the most important swine diseases worldwide. To limit the damage in the case of a new outbreak it is necessary to identify the virus as fast as possible. This information helps epidemiologists to trace the origin of the virus and to follow the virus spread. Genetic typing revealed that CSF virus genotypes, subgroups and types show a regional distribution making it an important tool for epidemiologists. Meanwhile, besides epidemiological data and nucleotide sequences from European isolates, information from isolates from South- and Central America, the Caribbean, Asia and recently from South Africa have become available. The data are stored in a database in the EU Reference Laboratory for CSF, accessible by the WWW (http://viro08.tiho-hanno ver.de). A new module was implemented that allows efficient automated genotyping.     

Descriptive clinical and epidemiological characteristics of influenza A H1N1 2009 virus infections in pigs in England

Infection of pigs with influenza A H1N1 2009 virus (A(H1N1)pdm09) was first detected in England in November 2009 following global spread of the virus in the human population. This paper describes clinical and epidemiological findings in the first English pig farms in which A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza virus was detected. These farms showed differences in disease presentation, spread and duration of infection. The factors likely to influence these features are described and relate to whether pigs were housed or outdoors, the age of the pigs, inter-current disease and the management system of the unit. Infection could be mild or clinically inapparent in breeding pigs with more typical respiratory disease being identified later in their progeny. Mortality was low where disease was uncomplicated by environmental stresses or concurrent infections. Where deaths occurred in pigs infected with A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza, they were mainly due to other infections, including streptococcal disease due to Streptococcus suis infection. This paper demonstrates the ease with which A(H1N1)pdm09 virus was transmitted horizontally and maintained in a pig population.     

Virus spread pattern within infected chicken farms using regression model: the 2003-2004 HPAI epidemic in the Republic of Korea

During the 2003-2004 epidemic in Korea, the infection time and within-farm spread pattern of virus were analysed for the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak on chicken farms using regression models based on epidemiological data. Mortality observed on a given day had a positive linear association with time after initial infection. HPAI spread more rapidly on farms managed by employees and on farms with larger numbers of chicken houses in use. The disease spread more rapidly among layer chickens than among broilers. Using statistical model, we found that farmers recognize the abnormally high mortality resulting from HPAI approximately 5 days after infection. Without any intervention, entire flocks would die within 12 days of introduction of the HPAI virus to the infected farm.     

A point pattern model of the spread of foot-and-mouth disease

The spatial spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is influenced by several sources of spatial heterogeneity: heterogeneity of the exposure to the virus, heterogeneity of the animal density and heterogeneity of the networks formed by the contacts between farms. A discrete space model assuming that farms can be reduced to points is proposed to handle these different factors. The farm-to-farm process of transmission of the infection is studied using point-pattern methodology. Farm management, commercial exchanges, possible airborne transmission, etc. cannot be explicitly taken into account because of lack of data. These latter factors are introduced via surrogate variables such as herd size and distance between farms. The model is built on the calculation of an infectious potential for each farm.This method has been applied to the study of the 1967-1968 FMD epidemic in UK and allowed us to evaluate the spatial variation of the probability of infection during this epidemic. Maximum likelihood estimation has been conducted conditional on the absence of data concerning the farms which were not infected during the epidemic. Model parameters have then been tested using an approximated conditional-likelihood ratio test. In this case study, results and validation are limited by the lack of data, but this model can easily be extended to include other information such as the effect of wind direction and velocity on airborne spread of the virus or the complex interactions between the locations of farms and the herd size. It can also be applied to other diseases where point approximation is convenient. In the context of an increase of animal density in some areas, the model explicitly incorporates the density and known epidemiological characteristics (e.g. incubation period) in the calculation of the probability of FMD infection. Control measures such as vaccination or slaughter can be simply introduced, respectively, as a reduction of the susceptible population or as a reduction of the source of infection.     

Virus Spread Pattern within Infected Chicken Farms using Regression Model: the 2003–2004 HPAI Epidemic in the Republic of Korea

During the 2003–2004 epidemic in Korea, the infection time and within‐farm spread pattern of virus were analysed for the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak on chicken farms using regression models based on epidemiological data. Mortality observed on a given day had a positive linear association with time after initial infection. HPAI spread more rapidly on farms managed by employees and on farms with larger numbers of chicken houses in use. The disease spread more rapidly among layer chickens than among broilers. Using statistical model, we found that farmers recognize the abnormally high mortality resulting from HPAI approximately 5 days after infection. Without any intervention, entire flocks would die within 12 days of introduction of the HPAI virus to the infected farm.     

Geostatistical visualisation and spatial statistics for evaluation of the dispersion of epidemic highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N1

The aim of this study was to evaluate a range of statistical and geostatistical methods for their usefulness in providing insights into how highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 might spread through a national population of village poultry. The insights gained allow the generation of disease dispersion hypotheses. The case study data set consisted of 161 outbreaks of HPAI subtype H5N1 in village poultry reported in Romania between October 2005 and June 2006. Reports of village outbreaks (%) occurred in three waves: October-December (14%), February-March (16%), and May-June (68%). Risk mapping - based on variography and kriging - was used to visualize the evolution of the epidemic. Outbreaks first appeared in eastern and southern Romania, particularly within an area that forms part of the Danube River Delta. The largest phase of the epidemic affected villages in all parts of central, southern, and eastern Romania, but outbreaks were clustered in central Romania. Outbreaks spread in an east to west direction. By using geostatistical visualisation and spatial statistics, the evolution of the epidemic could be characterised into two parts: disease introduction, local spread, and sporadic outbreaks, and long-distance disease spread with rapid epidemic propagation. This is consistent with the hypothesis that the environment and landscape (specifically the Danube River Delta) played a critical role in the introduction and initial spread of HPAI subtype H5N1 during the autumn and winter of 2005, and that the movement of poultry might have introduced the infection into central Romania during the spring and summer of 2006. Further research focusing on the spatio-temporal interface between the two parts of the epidemic might reveal how and why it progressed from a confined, local epidemic to a large, national epidemic. Such information would assist efforts to limit the global spread of HPAI subtype H5N1.     

从目的论角度对英文电影片名翻译探讨(英文)

With the accelerating process of globalization, cultural exchange between countries has become increasingly frequent. The movie, one of the most important media, has played an important role in the cultural exchange. The movie titles are first and the most direct approach for audience to understand movies. They have close relationship with the movie box-office. So the translation of movie titles is particularly vital. Film titles are brief, but Chinese translation of movie titles is not easy. However, in China,English movie titles translation is still in chaos. There is broad space for development.     

Hyena disease in cattle: a review

Hyena disease was first reported in France in 1975 and since then has been recognized in many countries. It is currently regarded as a disorder of skeletal development, mainly localised in the pelvic limbs of young cattle. Some investigators consider that it is a metabolic disease but the authors believe that it may be caused by a virus. Their hypothesis, according to which bovine virus diarrhoea-mucosal disease virus is involved, is based on epidemiological, histopathological and immunological evidence.     

The early detection of peste-des-petits-ruminants (PPR) virus antigens and nucleic acid from experimentally infected goats using RT-PCR and immunocapture ELISA techniques

Goats were infected subcutaneously with different African and Indian isolates of peste-des-petits-ruminants virus. Typical signs of disease were recorded from day 6 post infection for all isolates. Ocular, nasal and mouth samples were tested for the presence of virus antigen or nucleic acid using the immunocapture ELISA (ICE) and the RT-PCR technique. Using ICE, virus antigen was detected at day 4 in ocular and nasal samples of goats infected with Côte-d’Ivoire 89 and in the ocular, nasal and mouth samples with the India, Calcutta strains. By day 5, all samples from both these groups were positive while ocular and nasal samples from groups with Sudan-Sennar and Nigeria 75/1 strains became positive. With the RT-PCR technique virus nucleic acid, presumed to be associated with infectious virus excretion, was detected at day 3 in oral and nasal samples in groups infected with Côte-d’Ivoire 89 and India-Calcutta strains. From day 6–9, all samples from all groups were positive with both techniques. This experiment demonstrated that PPR virus antigens and nucleic acid, presumed to be related to infectious virus, is excreted 2–3 days before the appearance of clinical signs whatever the technique used which is of epidemiological importance in controlling the spread of the disease. The ICE being easier to perform in developing countries can be recommended as a useful method to investigate PPR in small ruminants flocks at an early stage to prevent the diffusion of the disease.     

好莱坞电影中的生态主义

日益严峻的生态危机促使生态主义思潮在学术界波澜壮阔，为大自然的讨伐声音此起彼伏。以电影尤其是好莱坞电影作为直面生态危机的放大镜，无疑具有更直观的感性力量。通过梳理生态主义在好莱坞电影中的具体表现，挖掘影片的生态意义，从而对人类命运进行反思。     

Rinderpest epidemic in wild ruminants in Kenya 1993-97

A severe epidemic of rinderpest, affecting mainly wild ruminants, occurred between 1993 and 1997 in East Africa. Buffalo (Syncerus caffer), eland (Taurotragus oryx) and lesser kudu (Tragelaphus imberbis) were highly susceptible. The histopathological changes, notably individual epithelial cell necrosis with syncytia formation, were consistent with an infection with an epitheliotrophic virus. Serology, the polymerase chain reaction, and virus isolation confirmed the diagnosis and provided epidemiological information. The virus was related to a strain which was prevalent in Kenya in the 1960s, of a second lineage (II), and distinct from isolations of rinderpest virus in the region since 1986. The source of the virus was presumed to be infected cattle from the Eastern region of Kenya and Somalia. The pathogenicity of the virus varied during the epidemic. The mortality in buffalo populations was estimated to be up to 80 per cent, and population data suggested that the virus had an adverse effect on a wide range of species. The virus caused only a mild disease in cattle, with minimal mortality. The results confirmed the importance of wildlife as sentinels of the disease, but although wildlife were important in the spread of the virus, they did not appear to act as reservoirs of infection.     

The 2001 epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease in the United Kingdom: epidemiological and meteorological case studies

The possibility of the airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease during the 2001 epidemic in the uk has been investigated in three epidemiological case studies. On the basis of evidence from field investigations, and a simple meteorological analysis, it is concluded that the spread of disease was consistent with the airborne transport of virus. The distances ranged from less than 1 km to 16 km; six of the farms were over 6 km from the source and involved the passage of virus over the sea combined with meteorological conditions which strongly favoured airborne disease transmission. The results of detailed atmospheric modelling demonstrated that airborne virus could have challenged livestock on all the farms studied. However, with one exception the 24-hour average daily concentrations of the virus were significantly below the experimentally estimated threshold for infection. A detailed model intercomparison established that, under stable atmospheric conditions, peak concentrations of virus up to two orders of magnitude higher might have been experienced for short periods, owing to fluctuations within the plume of virus, and model limitations. This finding would significantly reduce the apparent discrepancy between the experimentally estimated threshold for infection and the modelling results.     

Transmission of classical swine fever. A review

Classical swine fever (CSF) is one of the most important viral pig diseases. Basic measures to control epidemics of CSF comprise eradication of infected herds and preventive emptying of herds at risk. Identification of these herds at risk is based on knowledge of the different transmission routes of the virus. Direct transmission of CSF is undoubtedly the most efficient way of CSF virus transmission. Data on indirect transmission are variable and often equivocal. Various indirect transmission routes like swill feeding, wild boar and artificial insemination are well described, and the importance is beyond discussion. Mechanical transmission via vehicles and persons are categorized as very important based upon epidemiological research, whereas in experiments they can only be reproduced under worst case conditions. The role of arthropods, birds, rodents, and other animals in the spread of CSF virus remains doubtful. Active transmission by these has never been demonstrated and also very sparse indications for mechanical transmission are available. Also the role of airborne transmission remains debated. However epidemiological as well as experimental data indicate that airborne spread over short distances is probable.     

Airborne transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus from Burnside Farm,Heddon-on-the-Wall,Northumberland, during the 2001 epidemic in the United Kingdom

The results of a detailed assessment of the atmospheric conditions when foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus was released from Burnside Farm, Heddon-on-the-Wall, Northumberland at the start of the 2001 epidemic in the UK are consistent with the hypothesis that the disease was spread to seven of the 12 farms in the immediate vicinity of the source by airborne virus, and airborne infection could not be ruled out for three other premises; the remaining two premises were unlikely to have been infected by airborne virus. The distances involved ranged from less than 1 km up to 9 km. One of the farms which was most probably infected by airborne virus from Burnside Farm was Prestwick Hall Farm, which is believed to have been key to the rapid spread of the disease throughout the country. In contrast, the results of detailed atmospheric modelling, based on a combination of clinical evidence from the field and laboratory experiments have shown that by assuming a relationship between the 24-hour average virus concentrations and subsequent infection, threshold infection levels were seldom reached at the farms close to Burnside Farm. However, significant short-term fluctuations in the concentration of virus can occur, and short-lived high concentrations may have increased the probability of infection and explain this discrepancy.     

猪弓形虫病诊断与防治

猪弓形虫病是由刚地弓形虫感染引发的一种血液原虫病,该种疾病属于人畜共患病和典型的免疫性疾病,可以在多种牲畜群体中寄生。猪群一旦受到弓形虫感染,病情会快速传播,蔓延防控不及时,还会造成整个猪群全部发病,死亡率有时高达60%以上,是危害生猪养殖产业的常发病和高发病。因此,需要加强流行病学调查,在疾病进入流行高发期前,采取针对性措施防控,提高防控效果,降低发病率,保障养殖安全。该文探讨猪弓形虫病的流行病学、临床症状、病理变化、诊断方法和防治措施。