Resettlement and the environment in Vietnam: Implications for climate change adaptation planning

Increasingly the environment, and climate risks in particular, are influencing migration and planned resettlement in Vietnam, raising the spectre of increased displacement in a country already confronting serious challenges around sustainable land and water use as well as urbanisation. Planned resettlement has emerged as part of a suite of measures being pursued as part of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation strategies. This paper provides an historical, political, legal and environmental overview of resettlement in Vietnam identifying key challenges for framing resettlement as climate change adaptation. The paper outlines the scale of past resettlement in Vietnam, identifying the drivers and implications for vulnerability. Detailed case studies of resettlement are reviewed. Through this review, the paper reflects on the growing threat of climate change and the likelihood of increased displacement associated with worsening climate risks to identify some critical considerations for planned resettlement in climate change adaptation planning.     

The dilemmas of normalising losses from climate change: Towards hope for Pacific atoll countries

The idea that climate change may cause the loss of atoll countries is now taken for granted in much of climate change science, policy and media coverage. This normalisation of loss means atoll countries now face a future that is apparently finite, which is a grievous situation no other country has to contend with. This paper explains the dilemmas this presents to atoll countries. If there is a risk of forced migration, then strategic planning can minimise its social impacts. Yet, doing so may bring future dangers into the present by undermining efforts to facilitate adaptation to climate change, creating new identities and deterring investments in sustainable resource management. To overcome this dilemma, the paper argues for a more hopeful approach to the future of atoll countries, because for as long as the science of loss remains uncertain, and the limits to adaptation are unknown, forced migration cannot be taken as a matter of fact and could possibly be averted through emission reductions and a vastly improved and significantly more creative approach to adaptation.     

Adaptation to climate change and climate variability in European agriculture: The importance of farm level responses

Climatic conditions and hence climate change influence agriculture. Most studies that addressed the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change have focused on potential impacts without considering adaptation. When adaptation strategies are considered, socio-economic conditions and farm management are often ignored, but these strongly influence current farm performance and are likely to also influence adaptation to future changes. This study analysed the adaptation of farmers and regions in the European Union to prevailing climatic conditions, climate change and climate variability in the last decades (1990–2003) in the context of other conditions and changes. We compared (1) responses in crop yields with responses in farmers’ income, (2) responses to spatial climate variability with responses to temporal climate variability, (3) farm level responses with regional level responses and (4) potential climate impacts (based on crop models) with actual climate impacts (based on farm accountancy data). Results indicated that impacts on crop yields cannot directly be translated to impacts on farmers’ income, as farmers adapt by changing crop rotations and inputs. Secondly, the impacts of climatic conditions on spatial variability in crop yields and farmers’ income, with generally lower yields in warmer climates, is different from the impacts of temporal variability in climate, for which more heterogeneous patterns are observed across regions in Europe. Thirdly, actual impacts of climate change and variability are largely dependent on farm characteristics (e.g. intensity, size, land use), which influence management and adaptation. To accurately understand impacts and adaptation, assessments should consider responses at different levels of organization. As different farm types adapt differently, a larger diversity in farm types reduces impacts of climate variability at regional level, but certain farm types may still be vulnerable. Lastly, we observed that management and adaptation can largely reduce the potential impacts of climate change and climate variability on crop yields and farmers’ income. We conclude that for reliable projections of the impacts of climate change on agriculture, adaptation should not be seen anymore as a last step in a vulnerability assessment, but as integrated part of the models used to simulate crop yields, farmers’ income and other indicators related to agricultural performance.     

气候变化适应及其影响因素研究——山东胶州湾地区居民的实证分析

为探索气候变化感知在适应决策过程中的作用机理,本研究以深度访谈数据为基础,基于“感知－适应”分析框架,采用二元Probit模型和泊松回归模型,分析胶州湾地区居民气候变化适应决策和适应选择的影响因素。研究表明,胶州湾地区绝大多数居民已经感知到气候变化,半数以上居民采取了一定的适应措施,大多数居民对适应措施效果的感到满意。居民采取适应措施介于0-4项,平均为1.07项,适应措施的普及率和多样化仍有提升空间。影响胶州湾地区居民气候变化适应决策与适应选择的主要因素存在一定差异性,但“居民对气候变化的感知”不论是对适应决策还是对适应选择的影响都较大,其中又以“对降水变化的感知”和“对气象灾害损失的感知”最为显著。     

Interdependence of Retail Businesses

Previous studies employing the trade area analysis procedure of pull factors assume retail sectors are independent. However, interdependencies exist between and among retail sectors. Employing a multivariate Tobit procedure, the agglomerative aspects of retail trade can be captured. Results indictate that interdependencies exist between retail sectors and if these retail interdependencies are ignored, extension and outreach retail sector programs may prove to be ineffective.     

Planned resettlement to avoid climatic hazards: What prospects for just outcomes in China?

Planned resettlement is being widely considered as a response to the impacts of climate change. As many millions of people are expected to be displaced in the coming decades, scholars and policymakers are searching for precedence to inform their research and planning, particularly from experiences of Development‐Induced Displacement and Resettlement (DIDR). Nowhere in the world is DIDR and other closely related forms of planned resettlement more prevalent than in China: an estimated 78 million people have been displaced by development projects over the last six decades. While planned resettlement has consistently been shown to cause impoverishment, the Chinese state views it as the answer to a multitude of social ills including poverty, environmental damage, low levels of domestic consumption, and most recently, climate change, providing impetus to the normalisation of resettlement as adaptation. This paper examines the prospects for just outcomes in resettlement projects by examining distributive justice at multiple scales in existing resettlement practice in China. It finds that due to the interplay between resettlement and questions of procedural justice, prospects for just outcomes are quite limited, and that in order to achieve fair adaptation, alternatives to planned resettlement should be emphasised.     

Farmers' perceptions of and responses to environmental change in southwest coastal Bangladesh

Coastal Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to climate change and salinisation; hence, farm‐level adaptation is critically important. Farmers' perceptions of and responses to environmental change were investigated in two villages in Khulna District. Perceived environmental trends included increases in temperature, extreme weather events, soil toxicity, erratic rainfall and scarcity of water for irrigation. Perceptions of climate trends were consistent with measured trends in Khulna. On‐farm adaptation strategies included adjusting planting dates, excavating trenches in rice‐fields, adopting new crops, salinity‐reducing technologies, livestock‐rearing and home‐yard cropping. Non‐farm adaptation strategies included wage employment, short‐term migration and self‐employment. Adaptation was facilitated by income‐earning opportunities, training, and credit, and impeded by lack of access to water, markets, capital, and extension services. Farmers suggested policy support for dissemination of stress‐tolerant cultivars, access to irrigation, and price stabilisation or crop insurance to assist adaptation. While the study shows an impressive degree of awareness and adaptation, external support is needed to increase adaptive capacity.     

Slow,small and shared voluntary relocations: Learning from the experience of migrants living on the urban fringes of Khulna,Bangladesh

The paper conceptualises the process of voluntary relocation undertaken by rural farmers to informal settlements in coastal cities. These are journeys that occur without formal institutional support, utilising migrants' own agency. Learning from these community‐driven relocations has merit in rethinking climate change adaptation at the regional level. In this paper we present stories of 17 families who have progressively relocated to the fringes of Khulna city in southwestern Bangladesh. We observe three key attributes: first, relocations are slow, neither singular nor immediately completed, but rather take months of careful back and forth journeys of family members between their places of origin and destination. Second, relocations rely on small networks of relatives and acquaintances at the destination. Third, relocations are built on shared responsibilities distributed among a range of actors in places of origin and destination. We conclude that these slow, small and shared relocations are likely to be realised as forms of ongoing adaptation by rural farmers if their aspirational mobilities, social relations and supports are maintained at a regional scale. This kind of migration as adaptation may bring about just outcomes for those displaced without necessarily promoting rigid planning interventions that tend to fix resettlement solutions in place and time.     

Participatory design of farm level adaptation to climate risks in an arable region in The Netherlands

In the arable farming region Flevoland in The Netherlands climate change, including extreme events and pests and diseases, will likely pose risks to a variety of crops including high value crops such as seed potato, ware potato and seed onion. A well designed adaptation strategy at the farm level can reduce risks for farmers in Flevoland. Currently, most of the impact assessments rely heavily on (modelling) techniques that cannot take into account extreme events and pests and diseases and cannot address all crops, and are thus not suited as input for a comprehensive adaptation strategy at the farm level.To identify major climate risks and impacts and develop an adaptation measure portfolio for the most relevant risks we complemented crop growth modelling with a semi-quantitative and participatory approach, the Agro Climatic Calendar (ACC), A cost-benefit analysis and stakeholder workshops were used to identify robust adaptation measures and design an adaptation strategy for contrasting scenarios in 2050.For Flevoland, potential yields of main crops were projected to increase, but five main climate risks were identified, and these are likely to offset the positive impacts. Optimized adaptation strategies differ per scenario (frequency of occurrence of climate risks) and per farm (difference in economic loss). When impacts are high (in the +2 °C and A1 SRES scenario) drip irrigation was identified as the best adaptation measure against the main climate risk heat wave that causes second-growth in seed and ware potato. When impacts are smaller (the +1 °C and B2 SRES scenario), other options including no adaptation are more cost-effective.Our study shows that with relatively simple techniques such as the ACC combined with a stakeholder process, adaptation strategies can be designed for whole farming systems. Important benefits of this approach compared to modelling techniques are that all crops can be included, all climate factors can be addressed, and a large range of adaptation measures can be explored. This enhances that the identified adaptation strategies are recognizable and relevant for stakeholders.     

Impacts and adaptation of European crop production systems to climate change

The studies on anthropogenic climate change performed in the last decade over Europe show consistent projections of increases in temperature and different patterns of precipitation with widespread increases in northern Europe and decreases over parts of southern and eastern Europe. In many countries and in recent years there is a tendency towards cereal grain yield stagnation and increased yield variability. Some of these trends may have been influenced by the recent climatic changes over Europe.A set of qualitative and quantitative questionnaires on perceived risks and foreseen impacts of climate and climate change on agriculture in Europe was distributed to agro-climatic and agronomy experts in 26 countries. Europe was divided into 13 Environmental Zones (EZ). In total, we had 50 individual responses for specific EZ. The questionnaires provided both country and EZ specific information on the: (1) main vulnerabilities of crops and cropping systems under present climate; (2) estimates of climate change impacts on the production of nine selected crops; (3) possible adaptation options as well as (4) adaptation observed so far. In addition we focused on the overall awareness and presence of warning and decision support systems with relevance for adaptation to climate change.The results show that farmers across Europe are currently adapting to climate change, in particular in terms of changing timing of cultivation and selecting other crop species and cultivars. The responses in the questionnaires show a surprisingly high proportion of negative expectations concerning the impacts of climate change on crops and crop production throughout Europe, even in the cool temperate northern European countries.The expected impacts, both positive and negative, are just as large in northern Europe as in the Mediterranean countries, and this is largely linked with the possibilities for effective adaptation to maintain current yields. The most negative effects were found for the continental climate in the Pannonian zone, which includes Hungary, Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. This region will suffer from increased incidents of heat waves and droughts without possibilities for effectively shifting crop cultivation to other parts of the years. A wide range of adaptation options exists in most European regions to mitigate many of the negative impacts of climate change on crop production in Europe. However, considering all effects of climate change and possibilties for adaptation, impacts are still mostly negative in wide regions across Europe.     

甘蔗野生种质植物光合特性与原生长地年平均光强的关系

测定了原生长地不同的割手密、斑茅、蔗茅和五节芒等甘蔗野生种质植物的单叶净光合速率、蒸腾速率、气孔导度、细胞间隙CO2浓度和水分利用效率,并探讨了与其原生长地年平均光强的关系.结果表明:各野生种光合特性与原生长地年平均光强关系密切,各野生种光合特性及水分利用效率均随原生长地年平均光强的变化而变化.其中割手密变化最大,蔗茅变化最小,斑茅和五节芒居于其间.由此认为,在甘蔗野生种质植物中,割手密可能是比较新的种,具有较强的生态适应性,蔗茅则可能是比较古老的种,生态适应性较弱.     

Adaptability and phenotypic stability of Lolium perenne L. cultivars of diverse origin grown at the margin of the species distribution

In northern countries, Lolium perenne L. generally survives poorly when grown inland and north of 60°N because of extensive winter damage. With the projected future climate change, it could become a promising option for improving production efficiency of the agricultural sector in these regions. Here, we compare the biomass production potential of cultivars of diverse origin across five locations stretching from Estonia to Iceland over a period of three harvest years, and their freezing tolerance under artificial conditions. The aim was to relate the observed pattern of adaptation to the geographic origin of the cultivars and their response to prevailing agroclimatic conditions. Significant interactions were observed between cultivars and test environments (locations × years), and significant interactions between cultivars and years were detected at four of the five locations. Models of joint regression, additive main effects and multiplicative interaction (AMMI) and factorial regression using several agroclimatic indices showed that cultivars developed in northern countries showed greater yield potential across the test environments and were, thus, generally better adapted than cultivars from Central Europe. Diploid cultivars were more frost tolerant than tetraploid cultivars giving them an advantage in locations which were characterized by low temperatures during the hardening period in autumn and mild and rainy winters, such as at the Icelandic location. Only a few cultivars showed general adaptability to the environmental conditions at the test sites, the most stable cultivar being an admixture of diploids and tetraploids. In future breeding, the best strategy would be to hybridize cultivars developed in northern countries with more exotic materials that combine high yield potential, adequate winter survival and superior disease resistance under northern conditions.     

甘蔗野生种质植物光合特性与原生长地年平均气温关系

测定了原生长地不同的割手密、斑茅、蔗茅和五节芒等甘蔗野生种质植物的单叶净光合速率、蒸腾速率、气孔导度、细胞间隙CO2浓度和水分利用效率,并探讨了与其原生长地年平均气温的关系.结果表明:各野生种光合特性与原生长地年平均气温关系密切,光合特性及水分利用效率均随原生长地年平均气温的变化而变化,其中割手密变化最大,蔗茅变化最小.由此认为,割手密气孔调节能力强,适应性也最强,可能是4种甘蔗野生种质植物中比较新的种,而蔗茅气孔调节能力弱,适应范围较窄,可能是比较古老的种.     

Fijian adolescents’ understanding and evaluation of climate change: Implications for enabling effective future adaptation

Pacific Island countries are particularly vulnerable to future manifestations of climate change due to high coastline‐to‐land‐area ratios, and high dependence of inhabitants on natural ecosystems. While everyone in the Pacific Islands should participate in climate change adaptation activities, it is the young people, given they are the generation likely to not only bear the burden of climate change, but to lead and live effective climate change adaptation activities and strategies specific to their region, the involvement of youth is critical. Pacific Island youths are often marginalised within traditional decision‐making hierarchies, therefore they are typically excluded from participating in meaningful discussions at community and government levels. Discussions were held with 30 adolescents aged 14–18 years in Fiji to explore knowledge and experiences regarding climate change. Participants revealed their dismay at their inability to talk to family – who they consider are not doing enough – about what they consider as appropriate responses to climate change, recommending the help of an authoritative outsider who could speak to their community leaders and family. Discussions also revealed that Fijian youth could not distinguish between changes in the climate and normal weather events, attesting to the importance of climate‐change education and awareness‐raising efforts within the Pacific Islands more generally.     

Voluntary immobility and existential security in a changing climate in the Pacific

With the expectation of adverse climate change impacts, some (often majority) Indigenous populations of the Pacific are expressing a preference to remain on Indigenous lands for cultural and spiritual reasons. In some cases, Indigenous people express preparedness to die on traditional territory rather than relocate, representing a new type of agency and resistance to dispossession. This is a prominent politics of place of relevance to emerging debates and decision‐making around retreat and relocation. If climate change is experienced by populations as an existential threat to culture, identity and place‐based connections, voluntary immobility can be an important adaptation strategy that helps to strengthen cultural and spiritual resilience among those facing the prospect of a lost homeland. This paper argues that voluntary immobility decisions need ethically robust and culturally appropriate policies and practices, particularly when a site is deemed by external experts to be no longer fit for human settlement. National governments, civil society groups, international organisations and donors will need to: engage in culturally meaningful dialogue with communities about relocation and immobility; respect, protect and fulfil the rights of ‘immobile’ people and those on the move; and confirm that in situ adaptation options have been exhausted.     

Taking a climate chance: a procedural critique of Vietnam's climate change strategy

This article asks through what processes and for which interests the emerging Vietnamese climate change strategy is being designed, and if, ultimately, it is likely or not to be effective in the face of the looming threat. Through a review of an emerging body of literature and field observations, the paper finds the strategy partial and problematic in several ways. Its technocratic process prevents a pluralist representation of interests, obfuscating and perpetuating sectorial ones, at the expense of a more transparent and democratic resource allocation. The strategy therefore reflects and reinforces existing power relations in both politics and production. It feeds into a business-as-usual complacency, protecting national and international interests vested in unchallenged continuity, even when considering post-carbon technological fixes, which largely serve to expand capital accumulation opportunities. The article concludes that the national climate change strategy provides an illusion of intervention and security, but largely fails to identify and mitigate the underlying causes of climate change, or to lay the ground for a robust mid- and long-term adaptation strategy that can cope with yet unknown levels of climatic and other structural changes.     

Detection of major weather patterns reduces number of simulations in climate impact studies

With climate change posing a serious threat to food security, there has been an increased interest in simulating its impact on cropping systems. Crop models are useful tools to evaluate strategies for adaptation to future climate; however, the simulation process may be infeasible when dealing with a large number of G × E × M combinations. We proposed that the number of simulations could significantly be reduced by clustering weather data and detecting major weather patterns. Using 5, 10 and 15 clusters (i.e., years representative of each weather pattern), we simulated phenology, cumulative transpiration, heat-shock-induced yield loss (heat loss) and grain yield of four Australian cultivars across the Australian wheatbelt over a 30-year period under current and future climates. A strong correlation (r²≈1) between the proposed method and the benchmark (i.e., simulation of all 30 years without clustering) for phenology suggested that average duration of crop growth phases could be predicted with substantially fewer simulations as accurately as when simulating all 30 seasons. With mean absolute error of 0.64 days for phenology when only five clusters were identified, this method had a deviation considerably lower than the reported deviations of calibrated crop models. Although the proposed method showed higher deviations for traits highly sensitive to temporal climatic variability such as cumulative transpiration, heat loss and grain yield when five clusters were used, significantly strong correlations were achieved when 10 or 15 clusters were identified. Furthermore, this method was highly accurate in reproducing site-level impact of climate change. Less than 7% of site × general circulation model (GCM) combinations (zero for phenology) showed incorrect predication of the direction (+/−) of climate change impact when only five clusters were identified while the accuracy further increased at the regional level and with more clusters. The proposed method proved promising in predicting selected traits of wheat crops and can reduce number of simulations required to predict crop responses to climate/management scenarios in model-aided ideotyping and climate impact studies.     

Field experiments and simulation to evaluate rice cultivar adaptation to elevated carbon dioxide and temperature in sub-tropical India

Location specific adaptation option is required to minimize adverse impact of climate change on rice production. In the present investigation, we calibrated genotype coefficients of four cultivars in the CERES-Rice model for simulation of rice yield under elevated CO₂ environment and evaluation of the cultivar adaptation in subtropical India. The four cultivars (IR 36, Swarna, Swarn sub1, and Badshabhog) were grown in open field and in Open Top Chamber (OTC) of ambient CO₂ (≈390 ppm) and elevated CO₂ environment (25% higher than the ambient) during wet season (June–November) of the years 2011 and 2012 at Kharagpur, India. The genotype coefficients; P1 (basic vegetative phase), P2R (photoperiod sensitivity) and P5 (grain filling phase) were higher, but G1 (potential spikelet number) was lower under the elevated CO₂ environment as compared to their open field value in all the four cultivars. Use of the calibrated model of elevated CO₂ environment simulated the changes in grain yield of −13%, −17%, −4%, and +7% for the cultivars IR 36, Swarna, Swarna sub1, and Badshabhog, respectively, with increasing CO₂ level of 100 ppm and rising temperature of 1 °C as compared to the ambient CO₂ level and temperature and they were comparable with observed yield changes from the OTC experiment. Potential impacts of climate change were simulated for climate change scenarios developed from HadCM3 global climate model under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios (A2 and B2) for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080. Use of the future climate data simulated a continuous decline in rice grain yield from present years to the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 for the cultivars IR 36 and Swarna in A2 as well as B2 scenario with rising temperature of ≥0.8 °C. Whereas, the cultivar Swarna sub1 was least affected and Badshabhog was favoured under elevated CO₂ with rising temperature up to 2 °C in the sub-tropical climate of India.     

Climatic adaptation of trees: rediscovering provenance tests

Summary Common garden testing of populations of different origin started with forest trees more than two hundred years ago. Since then, so-called provenance tests have been established with most commercially important species. Beyond the strictly silvicultural goals, the tests offer excellent opportunities to study intraspecific genetic variation patterns and represent probably the most powerful available tool for testing hypotheses of climatic adaptation in trees.Analysis of adaptive traits (mostly juvenile height growth) in provenance experiments indicate the existence of very effective constraints on adaptedness. The performance of populations plotted against an ecological-climatic factor exhibits a characteristic pattern and can be described by response functions. The population average of a fitness-related trait for a locally adapted population is often significantly lower than that of populations from other environments; usually the ones from milder climate perform better. The phenomenon is interpreted as adaptation lag. Suboptimal adaptation is compensated by a high level of genetic diversity. Molecular genetic studies confirm the high level of allelic and individual genetic diversity in forest trees. A consequence of individual homeostasis, phenotypic stability of populations is usually also high; the sensitivity to environmental changes is generally moderate. Phenotypically stable populations are valuable not only because of a wider range of potential cultivation but specifically because of a greater ability to adjust to unexpected changes. This trait should receive more attention in the future for obvious reasons.The maintenance of a high within-population genetic variance is favored by the genetic system of the investigated species (effective gene flow, outbreeding, high genetic load, etc.). Random events and long-lasting biotic interactions are further effects impairing the efficiency of natural selection.In view of expected climate instability, genetic adaptability of forest trees causes serious concern due to their long lifespan compared to the rapidity of expected changes in environmental conditions. The potential of provenance tests to interpret long-term adaptational processes should be utilized to analyze, model and predict response of trees to climate change. Although seldomly appreciated, provenance research might be among the most important contributions of forestry to biological sciences.     

气候变化对沈阳地区大田作物的影响

为了当地农业结构调整、保障粮食生产提供依据,研究沈阳地区1951-2010年气候变化,采用气候倾向率及标准偏差方法对气候变化做定量分析。结果表明：沈阳地区年平均气温倾向率为0.196℃/10a,气候跃变之后年平均气温升高0.7℃;年降水量倾向率为-16.724 mm/10a,气候跃变之后降水减少40mm,多雨年在减少,少雨年在增加;第一场透雨出现时间被推迟,个别年份播种期受到限制。气候跃变之后终霜日提前,初霜日后推,延长了无霜期,作物播种期可适当早播;降水量减少、第一场透雨出现时间后延和不稳定,对作物生长和播种影响较大,成为农作物正常生长和产量稳定提高的限制因素。