RISK ASSESSMENT IN OPEN-OCEAN AQUACULTURE: A FIRM-LEVEL INVESTMENT-PRODUCTION MODEL

ABSTRACT

We develop a framework for risk assessment in open-ocean aquaculture. The framework consists of three components: a firm-level investment-production model simulates a specific grow-out project and estimates the project's benefit-cost values, a second model calculates the risk premium for a risk-averse investor, and a third model quantifies the option value for a risk-neutral investor. We show that under uncertainty, the traditional NPV rule for making an investment should be modified. We illustrate our models using a case study of open-ocean aquaculture of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in New England.     

A COMPARISON OF THE ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF OFFSHORE AND INSHORE AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION SYSTEMS IN KOREA

The economic performance of the current inshore rock bream aquaculture industry conducted in Yeosu, Korea was compared with a pilot commercial scale offshore aquaculture farm in Jeju, Korea. Data was collected from 12 inshore farms and two production cycles of the offshore farm for use in Monte Carlo simulations run over a ten year time horizon. Net present value was compared for the inshore farms and two survival rate scenarios for the offshore farm. The offshore farm is expected to have a higher survival rate if it can withstand tsunamis and avoid pollution, disease and red tide impacts that are prevalent inshore. When the offshore farm was modeled with its observed higher survival rate, its average net present value ($1,016,483) significantly outperformed the inshore farms average net present value ($182,153). In the second scenario, the offshore farm survival rate was lowered based on performance data from the inshore farms. Not surprisingly, given the higher investment costs, the offshore farm performed poorly in terms of average net present value ($-137,142) compared to the inshore farms when it no longer had the advantage of high survival rates.     

DEMAND FOR AQUACULTURE PRODUCTS IN TAIWAN: AN APPLICATION OF THE GENERALIZED MODEL

ABSTRACT

Policy decisions on what aquaculture products to develop require information on consumer demand for cultured species. However, information on the structure of demand for aquaculture products is limited and what few studies there are in Taiwan, where aquaculture is a major industry, suffer from methodological problems. To clear up some of these problems, we used modified nonnested testing techniques and performance forecasting to determine which generalized models could best estimate the demand for Taiwanese aquaculture products. The results of modified nonnested testing of the aquaculture demand system showed that prices predetermined and quantities predetermined could be used to estimate demand. The generalized ordinary demand model was able to better forecast performance than the generalized inverse demand model. We used the likelihood ratio test to discriminate among the four competing models for the generalized ordinary model; the AIDS model could be more suitably applied to the data. A more general model that is able to incorporate different dynamic structures (partial adjustment, first autoregressive, and static). This general framework is applied to the AIDS model. The first autoregressive AIDS model we used to calculate the own and cross-price elasticities for milkfish, tilapia, shrimp, shellfish, and carps found that price elasticities varied across fish type, that some products had high long-run own price elasticities, and that the demand for aquaculture products was largely determined by inertia.     

A SPATIAL MODEL FOR ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE EFFECTS AT AQUACULTURE SITES

This paper presents a model for the evaluation of marine sites that utilize site specific spatial datasets in the estimation of ecosystem cumulative effects. The model is motivated by the evaluation of marine sites for aquaculture. Maps of the coastal zone of Grand Manan Island, New Brunswick in the Bay of Fundy along Canada's Atlantic coast are utilized for the purpose of illustrating the model. The data sets, processed as thematic layers in a Geographic Information System (GIS) describing the marine site, represent natural resource abundance, habitat inventory, valuations from economic and recreational activities, and influence plumes from sources of effluents. The valuation methodology assigns quantitative yields by layer-area of each selected site, as well as yields for the pairwise overlapping “cumulative effects” layers of the datasets based on defined yield impact functions. Results are presented that validate the model as an effective decision support tool for defining aquaculture sites of interest.     

BIOECONOMICS OF CAPTURE-BASED AQUACULTURE OF COD (GADUS MORHUA)

This study formulates and parameterizes a bioeconomic model of capture-based aquaculture (CBA) of cod (Gadus morhua). The model is solved for the optimal harvest pattern and calculates economic profit and net present value for a model farm. The biological sub-model incorporates knowledge from interviews with existing farmers, research trials and existing cod aquaculture literature. Economic components are obtained from interviews and sales statistics from exporters. A farm of the modeled scale is likely to influence market prices, hence sales prices were estimated assuming a supply response based on the price elasticity. Taking into account the opportunity cost of selling the fish directly, NPV is found to be marginally positive. Sensitivity analysis revealed that profitability is sensitive to changes in several parameters. Hence, further research is valuable and care should be taken when considering investments in cod CBA.     

Stocking density and date decisions in semi‐intensive shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei (Boone, 1931) farming: a bioeconomic approach

This article analyses the optimal selection of stocking density and date in semi‐intensive culture of shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei (Boone, 1931). The empirical evaluation of productive and economic scenarios derived from the specific choice of these management variables is often unfeasible for decision makers. To overcome this limitation, the bioeconomic modelling is widely applicable in aquaculture systems. In the present study, profit maximization for a semi‐intensive shrimp farm is obtained through the development of a bioeconomic model to analyse the combination of stocking density (range: 6–30 postlarvae (PL) m^?2) and date (from March 1st to June 1st) as decision variables for a shrimp farm located in Sinaloa, Mexico. The results show that pond water temperatures prevailing during culture cycle when the stocking date is June 1st (temperature in 19‐weeks culture period: 30.76 ± 0.87°C) and the stocking density is 20–24 PL m^?2 produce a maximized Present Value Profit (PVπ) of  USThis article analyses the optimal selection of stocking density and date in semi‐intensive culture of shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei (Boone, 1931). The empirical evaluation of productive and economic scenarios derived from the specific choice of these management variables is often unfeasible for decision makers. To overcome this limitation, the bioeconomic modelling is widely applicable in aquaculture systems. In the present study, profit maximization for a semi‐intensive shrimp farm is obtained through the development of a bioeconomic model to analyse the combination of stocking density (range: 6–30 postlarvae (PL) m^?2) and date (from March 1st to June 1st) as decision variables for a shrimp farm located in Sinaloa, Mexico. The results show that pond water temperatures prevailing during culture cycle when the stocking date is June 1st (temperature in 19‐weeks culture period: 30.76 ± 0.87°C) and the stocking density is 20–24 PL m^?2 produce a maximized Present Value Profit (PVπ) of  US$^?ha 10 350 and PVπ US$^?ha 2526 for weekly mortality rates at low (2.1%) and medium (5.8%) levels respectively. The marginal change in the cost of feed (±1%) has the greatest effect on PVπ (?0.58% and 0.59% respectively). The discussion focuses on the combined effect of mortality rate, stocking density and especially, on the stocking date decision, for a given production planning framework, taking into account that the stocking date is the main management decision variable to cope with viral diseases outbreaks.     

A MIXED-INTEGER TRANSSHIPMENT MODEL FOR TILAPIA (OREOCHROMIS SP.) MARKETING IN HONDURAS

Tilapia production in Honduras has increased in recent years. However, lack of thorough understanding of domestic markets and coordinated production efforts have hampered the development of a domestic market. This study quantified marketing costs for tilapia marketed in Honduras and developed a mixed-integer transshipment mathematical programming model to identify the most profitable marketing alternatives for small- and medium-scale farmers. Of the total marketing costs ($0.07–$0.41/kg), 40–73% were for transportation and 13–30% for packaging costs. This depended upon farm size, location, and the specific market targeted. Model results suggested restaurants as primary targets with supplemental production delivered to supermarkets in relative proximity to the selected restaurants. The model selected cities with sufficient restaurant demand to absorb the farm's total production. Farms with high production levels can take advantage of the reduced transport cost of larger trucks and sell excess product to alternative outlets whereas small-scale farm volumes were too low to supply markets on a weekly basis. Farms located in the East and South regions had a marketing advantage over farms in other regions due to proximity to the most profitable Distrito Central outlets. To successfully compete for Honduran markets other than the low-priced local open-air markets will require farm sizes greater than 6 ha to supply a minimum weekly production of 900 kg.     

Justification for genetic improvement in growth rates of black bream (Acanthopagrus butcheri): A partial budgeting analysis

Abstract

Black bream (Acanthopagrus butcheri) appear an ideal candidate for the developing saline aquaculture industry of inland Western Australia. However, current maximum growth rates of 150g/annum are too slow for profitable production. This study investigated whether enhanced growth rates of black bream would improve profitability and justify a genetic improvement program. A partial budget analysis was conducted for two different fish production systems; a commercial operation that incurred more operating expenses due to costs associated with farm initiation (stand‐alone farm model), and an existing farm that diversified into aquaculture using the saline water resources of established farm dams (integrated farm model). Sensitivity analyses indicated that a 33 per cent increase in growth rate to at least 200g/annum would allow either production system to return a profit at a farm‐gate price of AUS$6/kg whole fish, with fish survival rates of 98 per cent for the stand‐alone farm, and 65 per cent for the integrated farm model. These results are discussed in the context of the genetic and economic consequences of selection for improved growth rates, and for developing breeding objectives and a genetic improvement program for black bream.     

A factorial model to predict phosphorus waste output of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss)

Minimizing phosphorus (P) wastes is considered to be a key factor for environmental sustainability of freshwater aquaculture operations in many parts of the world. A factorial P model, consisting of digestibility, whole-body P deposition, P waste output and limnological transformation sub-models, was constructed to simulate the effects of different dietary P sources and levels on P utilization in salmonids. This factorial P model was developed based on information from the literature for rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ). This factorial model runs on the platform of a fish bioenergetics model that provides dynamic estimates of feed intake of salmonids based on diet composition and growth rate. Simulations suggest that this model can potentially be a useful tool for waste output management of salmonid culture operations.     

我国鲍增养殖现状,问题与发展对策

1982～1988年由于人工育苗技术的不断改进,为鲍生产提供了可供人工养殖及放流增殖的大规格苗种,掀起了鲍人工养殖的高潮,并取得了显著的经济效益。据统计,我国年产量从1985年的100多吨猛增到1995年的1000多吨,但从1990年至今,无论是在人工育苗还是人工增养殖过程中均出现了大量死亡现象,给生产单位造成了严重损失,挫伤了育苗及养殖单位的积极性,出现了大的滑坡。作者对滑坡的原因进行了分析,并对今后的发展提出了一些设想。