Behaviour of price transmissions in vertically coordinated markets: The case of frozen black tiger shrimp (Penaeus monodon)*

Abstract

This study analyses the behaviour of the price transmission process for the leading cultured shrimp species, black tiger shrimp (Penaeus monodon), in both forward and backward directions between Thai and Indonesian shrimp packer markets and the Japan Tokyo wholesale market. The bivariate cointegration approach using the Engle‐Granger two‐stage estimation procedure is applied in this study. The results show that Tokyo wholesale prices appear to have stronger backward influences on the formation of overseas contract prices used by Japanese shrimp importers in the Thai and Indonesian shrimp packer markets. In addition, there is a tendency for the speed of price transmissions in the long term to increase with increasing size class (from 26 to 30–21–25 and 16–20 counts per pound) of black tiger shrimp, regardless of estimation specification in the direction of price transmissions and the shrimp country of origin.     

A dynamic almost ideal demand model for US catfish

Abstract

The study applies a dynamic model of the almost ideal demand system to derive long‐run estimates of demand for catfish products. Adjustment coefficients towards long‐run equilibrium for purchasers of catfish are estimated. The hypothesis that catfish buyers fully adjust to changes in real price and expenditure instantaneously is rejected. Following a deviation from equilibrium, about 16% of the adjustment takes place instantaneously while full adjustment is completed within the subsequent two‐month period. Purchasers of catfish adjust fairly quickly to a new equilibrium after disequilibrium movements suggesting a low cost of adjustment. Elasticity estimates obtained from the model indicate that the dynamic model is well behaved, with negative own‐price effects in the compensated and uncompensated form. In the uncompensated form whole fish is found to be less own‐price inelastic while fillet is found to be own‐price elastic. The sensitive nature of the products to changes in own prices suggests the need for processors to make whole fish and fillets more price‐competitive through efficient production and marketing processes. Expenditure elasticities obtained from the model are also consistent with economic theory.     

Effects of inter‐country aquaculture technology diffusion rates on international shrimp market shares

Abstract

Technology innovation and diffusion in shrimp aquaculture has resulted in increased quantity and supply of shrimp to satisfy expanding consumer demand. Logistic growth curves are estimated to depict the rate of diffusion of shrimp aquaculture technology throughout the major shrimp producing countries. A time series/cross sectional model is applied to 1985–1991 and 1995–1999 production data to evaluate factors influencing shrimp production growth rates. Calculated market shares for each country indicate that operating costs, lagged shrimp price, number of hectares in production, lagged export quantity of shrimp, and market structure influence the aquaculture technological diffusion rates and shrimp produced, and suggest that countries that incorporate technologies into their production system benefit the most from increased market share.     

A DEMAND ANALYSIS FOR CRUSTACEANS AT THE U.S. RETAIL STORE LEVEL

This study used a LA/AIDS model to estimate demand system for crustacean species, shrimp, crab, crawfish and lobster at the U.S. retail store level. Shrimp demand is price elastic; crab, crawfish and lobster are price inelastic. Shrimp price significantly affects market shares of crustacean products. Shrimp has more substitutes than other crustaceans, and lobster has less substitutes than others. The demand for crab and lobster grow faster than the demand for shrimp and crawfish when expenditure increases. Promotion has positive effects on market shares and sales volume of own products and negative effects on cross-products. Shrimp price-reduction promotion strategies will be effective in term of raising shrimp sales value. Marketing programs that increase consumers’ marginal utility with an additional small increase in the selling price of crab, crawfish and lobster products will be feasible, and bring higher sale values.     

DEMAND FOR FISH IN THE PHILIPPINES: A DISAGGREGATED ANALYSIS

ABSTRACT

This paper sought to establish the fish consumption pattern of Filipino households and estimate the price and income elasticities of fish demand by species, as well as by income groups, i.e., low, middle, and high income. The study used the countrywide Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) for year 2000 of the National Statistics Office, which includes over 39,000 households. A three-stage budgeting framework was used in the analysis, which estimated food and fish expenditure functions in the first and second stages, respectively. In the third stage, a system of demand equations for fish by species was estimated using a quadratic almost ideal demand system (QUAIDS) model. Parameter estimates of the model were corrected through the Heckman procedure to remove the possible bias brought about by zero consumption of certain fish species resulting from nonpreference or infrequent purchases. Results showed that estimated price and income elasticities of demand varied substantially across fish type and across income groups. All 11 fish types included in the study were found to have positive income elasticity for all income levels. Hence, fish in general can be considered normal goods, including processed fish. However, the high-priced fish types generated elasticity values greater than one, which rendered them as luxury food fish. Own-price elasticity, on the other hand, was found to be elastic in most species with values increasing as consumers climbed up the income ladder. This observation, however, was not true in the case of milkfish and tilapia (two most popular species in the country) where price responsiveness of demand was found to be higher among the lower-income groups.     

Reflected‐light Influences the Coloration of the Peppermint Shrimp,Lysmata boggessi (Decapoda: Caridea)

One alternative to contribute to the reduction of the pressure on coral reef ecosystems brought about by an increasing demand for marine aquarium ornamentals is to improve and further develop the culture of desirable species for trade. Peppermint shrimp from the genus Lysmata are among the most intensively traded decapod in the trade and while several studies have been conducted to improve its culture, individuals obtained from culture facilities are generally paler than those collected from the wild. Because color is a fundamental component of the price tag on most marine ornamental live species, poorly colored animals command a lower price, reducing competitiveness. In this study, we evaluate the influence of tank background color (reflected light) on the morphological coloration change of Lysmata boggessi. In a 15‐d experiment, 30 individuals were exposed either to reflected‐red or white light and the relative change of coloration between initial and final moments was quantified with photography (RGB color model). At the end of the experimental period, shrimp exposed to red‐reflected light presented a more intense red coloration than those exposed to white‐reflected light. These results demonstrate that a simple change in background tank color can enhance shrimp external coloration. Such a cheap‐to‐implement procedure can support the culture of more colorful, hence more valuable ornamental shrimp that can compete with those captured from the wild.     

DEMAND FOR AQUACULTURE PRODUCTS IN TAIWAN: AN APPLICATION OF THE GENERALIZED MODEL

ABSTRACT

Policy decisions on what aquaculture products to develop require information on consumer demand for cultured species. However, information on the structure of demand for aquaculture products is limited and what few studies there are in Taiwan, where aquaculture is a major industry, suffer from methodological problems. To clear up some of these problems, we used modified nonnested testing techniques and performance forecasting to determine which generalized models could best estimate the demand for Taiwanese aquaculture products. The results of modified nonnested testing of the aquaculture demand system showed that prices predetermined and quantities predetermined could be used to estimate demand. The generalized ordinary demand model was able to better forecast performance than the generalized inverse demand model. We used the likelihood ratio test to discriminate among the four competing models for the generalized ordinary model; the AIDS model could be more suitably applied to the data. A more general model that is able to incorporate different dynamic structures (partial adjustment, first autoregressive, and static). This general framework is applied to the AIDS model. The first autoregressive AIDS model we used to calculate the own and cross-price elasticities for milkfish, tilapia, shrimp, shellfish, and carps found that price elasticities varied across fish type, that some products had high long-run own price elasticities, and that the demand for aquaculture products was largely determined by inertia.     

Aquaculture and international trade

Abstract

In contrast to the stabilization or decline of wild fishery harvests, aquaculture's contribution to the world fish supply is steadily increasing. Aquaculture has begun to have a major influence on the trade of export‐orientated species such as salmon and shrimp. This paper reviews the role of aquaculture in international trade and the research which has been conducted to examine its influence. Despite the growing significance of aquaculture on international trade, especially for shrimp and salmon, formal analysis of the shrimp trade is sparse, only moderate for salmon, and essentially nonexistent for other species. This paper also presents specific examples of how aquaculture has played an important role in international trade. These include an examination of: (1) the influence of shrimp aquaculture and trade on the development of a shrimp futures contract; and (2) the countervailing duty and antidumping case against the Norwegian farmed salmon industry.     

Economics of risk and uncertainty of alternative water exchange and aeration rates in semi‐intensive shrimp culture systems

Abstract

Reducing water exchange in shrimp aquaculture to minimize discharge of pollutants is a search for sustainability. In desert regions, like most of northwest Mexico, low water exchange must be complemented with artificial aeration to compensate for low levels of oxygen in warm and highly saline water. The economic yield of a low‐water‐exchange production system is compared against yield from a typical water‐exchange‐without‐aeration system for Penaeus vannamei culture. The difference between two systems is centered on pumping and aeration rates for a 100 ha semi‐intensive farm in northwest Mexico.

A bioeconomic model was built to compare the systems. Risk analysis is adopted to account for uncertainty of seed price, shrimp growth rate, survival rate, and shrimp prices.

The typical system was slightly more profitable than the low‐water‐exchange, aerated system. The latter used less electricity than the former in all of the three mortality‐rate scenarios. However, the difference in profitability is so small that for practical purposes both production systems provide similar economic yield. For a typical system, the probability of reaching a positive net present value (NPV) is high, therefore under the assumed risks, a 100 ha semi‐intensive shrimp farm in northwest Mexico is a good investment choice.     

Projecting future fish supplies using stock dynamics and demand

Supply–demand models, which are commonly used in food policy analysis, have been recently applied to generate projections of future fish supplies. However, these models routinely ignore stock dynamics; hence, threats to sustainability due to declining fish stocks are addressed, at best, by exogenous changes in resource productivity. Such a device is ad hoc, as it is unclear whether the assumed shifts are consistent with known patterns of population adjustment. On the other hand, bioeconomic models incorporate stock dynamics, but typically omit price adjustment arising from the interaction of demand and supply. An applied supply–demand model with stock dynamics combines the strengths of both approaches. However, data problems constrain the formulation of such a model. Instead, this study presents a prototype bioeconomic supply–demand model. Simulations show trends in fish supply that fail to appear in either supply–demand or bioeconomic models. Secular demand growth causes initial production growth, followed by stagnation, and then persistent decline. Moreover, under constant pressure from rising demand, capture production fails to recover completely from adverse population shock (such as may be induced by climate change). The prototype model highlights the potential usefulness of an applied bioeconomic supply–demand model for food policy and fisheries management, and provides a template for future work.     

Performance of shrimp futures markets as price discovery and hedging mechanisms

Abstract

Granger causality tests revealed leading indicators of shrimp futures prices, implying that futures prices do not reflect all available market information and potentially fail to be an exemplary price discovery mechanism. Trading simulations confirmed that the use of some leading indicators allowed profitable arbitrage in shrimp futures trading. Shrimp futures were deficient as a hedging tool, as well. Correlations between futures and wholesale cash prices were often low, and basis risk rivaled price risk. Lack of liquidity is a likely explanation for shrimp futures’ shortcomings as a hedging tool and price discovery mechanism.     

The potential impact of summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) aquaculture on regional flounder price

Abstract

Increasing consumer demand for flounder and dramatic reductions in ocean flounder harvests have raised interest in summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) aquaculture. Flounder farmers have several potential markets, including regional seafood dealers and high‐end niche (e.g., sashimi and ike‐jime) buyers. Prices paid by buyers are exogenous to typical aquacultural budgeting models, yet they are a key determinant of potential profitability. We develop a simple economic model to assess the impacts of aquaculture industry supply on prices paid by regional seafood dealers. The model is parameterized for a region with established flounder dealers and active field research in flounder production methods. We derive the price elasticity of regional seafood dealer demand for farmed flounder, and we examine the impacts of changes in production cost and ocean harvest on regional price and the level of aquacultural production that maximizes returns to the aquaculture industry.     

Diversification of shrimp products in the Japanese and US markets during the 1990s

Abstract

During the 1990s the major producers of farmed shrimp in the world included countries such as Thailand, Ecuador, Indonesia, China and India. These countries exported shrimp products in frozen form. The major importers were Japan, the United States and European Union countries. This study reports changes in the trend of exported shrimp products of 10 countries by using the ‘revealed comparative advantage’ method. The selected producers were 10 shrimp exporters to the Japanese and US markets. The results of the study showed that there was a gradual increase in the export quantity of shrimp‐exporting countries such as Thailand, Indonesia and China. These countries have developed processing technology with the advantage of low production costs, as well as abundant and inexpensive labour.     

Shrimp farming in Latin America: Current status,opportunities, challenges and strategies for sustainable development

Abstract

Shrimp farming in Latin America and the Caribbean (hereinafter, LA&C) is a complex, diverse and dynamic activity, occurring in 22 out of 36 countries, producing 231,000 tons, valued at US$ 1.2 billion in 2002¹. Farmed shrimp represents 52% of all shrimp volumes produced regionally, and almost 18% of all shrimp and prawn (S&P, hereinafter) cultivated worldwide. Whiteleg shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei) constitutes 91% of all shrimp farmed in LA&C and five nations, led by Brazil ‐formerly by Ecuador‐, comprise 82% of farmed production. Over 90% of LA&C shrimp production is exported (230,000 tons of end products from both aquaculture and wild origin valued at US$ 1.36 billion), generating a trade surplus of US$ 1.28 billion (2002).

Farmed shrimp could easily surpass 513,000 tons by 2030, more than doubling current regional figures (2.9% annual growth rate, compounded). However, competition with Asian countries, anti‐dumping accusations and other factors might limit the expansion process, which is increasingly determined by strategically important matters rather than by physical production constraints. Here, a ‘production‐driven’ process of past decades is being replaced by a ‘demand‐led’ situation, where market and marketing issues will increasingly influence the outcome of shrimp farming.

Growing market competition will continue to press prices down and industry will be forced into a permanent process to improve competitiveness. Here, development strategies include actions by governments and producer associations, promotional and marketing campaigns and the application of good management practices across the production and distribution chains.     

Advice in spite of great uncertainty: assessing and addressing bycatch of small fishes with limited data using Stellifer illecebrosus as a case study

相似文献   

TESTING FOR MARKET INTEGRATION AND THE LAW OF ONE PRICE IN WORLD SHRIMP MARKETS

Using import price data from Japan, United States, and the European Union, shrimp price movements in these markets were evaluated to test if it denotes an integrated world market for shrimp. Cointegration techniques were utilized to investigate if prices in these markets share a common stochastic trend and if the law of one price holds. Results indicated a strong link amongst Japanese, American, and European markets. The results on the aggregated shrimp markets were checked against the results at a more disaggregated level. Data from wholesale markets in Tokyo, New York, and Europe for specific shrimp products confirm the integrated nature of shrimp markets. Evidence also supports the law of one price in shrimp markets.     

Economic evaluation of mud crab farming under different production systems in India

Abstract

Apart from penaeid shrimp culture, crab farming and fattening and other several diversified aquaculture practices are now emerging as viable ventures in India. About 11 types of crab products are being exported from India with an average unit value realization of US$ 3.73 kg^?1, pinpointing its importance in the foreign exchange earnings. An economic evaluation of mud crab culture, fattening and fattening with composite culture of shrimp/finfish has been attempted in this paper. The major operating cost was that of seed and it was higher for crab fattening (87% of the total operating cost). Feed costs were very low compared to that of shrimp farming. Annual profit obtained was US$ 22812.5 ha^?1 year^?1 for culture and US$ 30820.8 ha^?1 year^?1 for fattening. Economic indicators such as net profit, rate of return, pay back period and breakeven price indicate that crab fattening/culture is much more profitable than any other coastal aquaculture operations currently in practice, provided hatchery production is established in the country to ensure adequate supply of mud crab seeds.     

Prolonged Culture Period on Production Cost and Factor Input: A Case from the Pacific Oyster,Crassostrea gigas,Farming Industry in Yunlin County,Taiwan

The Yunlin coastal area is the largest oyster culture in Taiwan; however, the oyster farmers reported the negative impact of a prolonged oyster culture period and an increased operating cost in 2010. This study uses the translog cost function to consider the possibility of an oyster culture period extension to estimate oyster cost elasticity, own‐price elasticities, and cross‐price (substitution) elasticities, to evaluate whether the oyster farming industry in Yunlin County has economies of scale, and to assess the relationship with a substitution of inputs. We found that the Yunlin oyster culture has economies of scale, and that the oyster farmers can expand production scale to reduce costs. The own‐price elasticities of demand for inputs are less than 1, indicating fairly inelastic factor demands in oyster production. The oyster farming industry displays strong substitutability between the prolonged culture period and capital input, suggesting that the oyster farming industry is more responsive to a higher prolonged culture period cost, in terms of capital input.     

Evaluation of the effect of stock enhancement in the coastal waters of Guangdong,China

A total of 14.573 million fish fry and 96.32 million shrimp larvae were released across 31 locations into the coastal waters off Guangdong, China, in 2010. The released fish and shrimp were sampled through a combination of market and fishing log‐book surveys. The combined fishery production reached 362 868 kg. The input–output ratio was 1:5.99 for released fish (over 3 years) and 1:11.01 for released shrimp (over 2 years). The average increase in income was 721 RMB per capita. Approximately 240 thousand fish (after 3 years) and 1.2 million shrimp (after 2 years) survived to sexual maturity and could contribute to the spawning stock. The stockings were approximately one‐seventh of the fish and one‐half of the shrimp stocking carrying capacities, respectively. Based on these results, the intensity of stocking could be increased. Stocking and recapture strategies should be adjusted to align with the optimal stocking carrying capacity determined from this study.     

Economic characteristics of extensive shrimp farms in the Mekong delta

Abstract

Extensive forms of shrimp aquaculture have become an important source of income for farm households in the brackish water region of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. The economic and production characteristics of farms are discussed in this paper, based on a 1997 farm survey, with particular emphasis on shrimp farming practices. Two types of shrimp fanning practice were observed, one based on natural recruitment of seedstock with few supplementary inputs, and the other based on relatively high cash investments in Penaeus monodon seedstock and other inputs. Households practising monodon culture made significantly more income, but faced high risk associated with shrimp mortality. An investigation of the factors affecting monodon yields indicated that investment in higher quality inputs had a positive effect on yield and income. However, further research is needed on the extent to which management can reduce risk of shrimp mortality by investing in such premium quality inputs.