Conceptual model of a future farm management information system

Future and even current European farmers are experiencing that the managerial tasks for arable farming are shifting to a new paradigm, requiring increased attention to economic viability and the interaction with the surroundings. To this end, an integration of information systems is needed to advise managers of formal instructions, recommended guidelines and documentation requirements for various decision making processes. In the EU funded project FutureFarm, a new model and prototype of a new Farm Information Management System (FMIS) which meets these changing requirements will be developed. The aim of the work presented in this paper is to define and analyse the system boundaries and relevant decision processes for such a novel FMIS as a prerequisite for a dedicated information modelling.The boundaries and scope of the system are described in terms of actors and functionalities, where actors are entities interfacing with the system (e.g. managers, software, databases). In order to analyse the complex and soft systems situations of how to develop an effective FMIS, which effectively meets farmers’ changing needs a conceptual model was developed based on soft systems methodology (SSM) and based on information derived from four pilot farms representing diverse conditions across the EU that are partners of the FutureFarm project. The system components were depicted as part of rich pictures and linked to the subsequent derived conceptual model of the overall system as an outline for the development of the specific FMIS requirements. This research has shown the benefit of using dedicated system analysis methodologies as a preliminary step to the actual design of a novel farm management information system compared with other more rigid and activity oriented system analysis methods.     

Functional requirements for a future farm management information system

As a subsequent step of the conceptual modelling and the information modelling involving the specification of the knowledge content of the decision processes and the involved data imbedded in the information entities, a derivation of the functional requirements was carried out to support and guide the selection of the technological infrastructure of a dedicated farm management information system (FMIS). The study employed the core-task analysis (CTA) method involving a combination of science-based modelling, practice-based modelling, and integrated information modelling.The “process” entities of the information flow model which represent the usage processes of the information, and of the “information” entities which represent the data elements were identified for the specific case of fertilising. This identification of the usage processes as well as the associated data elements showed the complexity of the decision making process within the domain of field operations. In a fully structured and formalised information flow decomposition, many actors are required to deliver information to the decision processes in order to fully emulate the tacit knowledge that the farmer are currently using. Especially, the concept of assisting services has to evolve in order to sustain the need of more automated decision processes in the future. New information management concepts and designs mean that farmers have to be ready to adopt new working habits and perhaps also undergo further training.     

农户采用不同稻作方式的影响因素分析 ——基于江苏省淮安市淮安区的农户调研数据

【目的】探讨农户对不同稻作方式的采用行为及影响因素,为稻作方式的发展及推广工作提供科学依据。【方法】基于实地调研数据,运用Multinomial Logistic模型对农户采用直播稻、机插稻和手栽稻的行为结果及影响因素进行实证分析。【结果】稻作方式的省工特性对农户采用直播稻和机插稻均有显著影响;稻作方式信息可获得性对农户采用机插稻有显著影响;稻作方式的生产性投入与农户采用直播稻呈负相关;水稻种植面积与农户采用直播稻呈负相关,与农户采用机插稻呈正相关;农户兼业性与其采用直播稻和机插稻呈正相关。【结论】稻作方式的劳动投入量是影响农户采用行为的关键因素;农户的兼业性促进了其对轻简稻作方式的采用;生产性投入低是农户采用直播稻的重要原因。推进水稻规模经营、为农户提供方便有效的技术信息可促进机插稻的发展。     

杂交玉米技术采用对山区农户生计的影响分析 ——来自滇西南的实证

【目的】采用来自滇西南山区的农户调查数据,分析杂交玉米技术对农户收入、农户生计策略和农户间收入不均等的影响。【方法】利用可行性广义最小二乘法回归分析农户收入决定因素和农户生计策略决定因素,并采用基于回归分解的方法测度杂交玉米技术采用对农户间收入差距的贡献。【结果】杂交玉米技术采用对农户人均纯收入提高有显著的正向作用,杂交玉米面积比重每增加1%,农户人均纯收入增加0.5%;杂交玉米种植面积比重每增加1%,农户人均粮食作物收入增加2.5%。杂交玉米技术采用对农户间收入不均等的效应仅为0.005。【结论】在滇西南山区,杂交玉米技术既可增加农户收入又不会导致农户间收入差距扩大。     

Bounded transparency for automated inspection in agriculture

In agriculture, a major challenge is to automate knowledge-intensive tasks. Task-performing software is often opaque, which has a negative impact on a system’s adaptability and on the end user’s understanding and trust of the system’s operation. A more transparent, declarative way of specifying the expert knowledge required in such software is needed.We argue that a white-box approach is in principle preferred over systems in which the applied expertise is hidden in the system code. Internal transparency makes it easier to adapt the system to new conditions and to diagnose faulty behaviour. At the same time, explicitness comes at a price and is always bounded by practical considerations. Therefore we introduce the notion of bounded transparency, implying a balanced decision between transparency and opaqueness. The method proposed in this paper provides a set of pragmatic objectives and decision criteria to decide on each level of a task’s decomposition whether more transparency is sensible or whether delegation to a black-box component is acceptable.We apply the proposed method in a real-world case study involving a computer vision application for seedling inspection in horticulture and show how bounded transparency is obtained. We conclude that the proposed method offers structure to the application designer in making substantiated implementation decisions.     

基于数据融合的农作物生产风险评估新方法

【目的】解决农作物生产风险传统评估方法中存在的问题,更准确客观地评估农作物生产风险。【方法】利用TRIZ创新理论“九屏幕法”对传统评估方法缺陷进行分析,提出综合利用作物单产和作物灾情信息的农作物生产风险评估新方法,并以东北三省玉米、小麦、花生、稻谷和大豆5种主要作物的生产风险评估为例,对该方法的效果进行了实证检验。【结果】基于单产数据作物风险评估的传统方法低估了作物真实风险水平,低估程度受地理位置、作物种植生产区域布局及作物品种的影响。基于数据融合的生产风险评估方法既可以准确评估出作物生产风险水平、又可以对具体灾害引致的作物生产风险进行评估。【结论】基于数据融合的生产风险评估新方法切实可行,且较传统方法具有明显的优势。     

A Bayesian network to predict the probability of organic farms’ exit from the sector: A case study from Marche, Italy

The maintenance of organic farming production schemes is a theme receiving a growing interest now that there are signs of a slowing in organic farming uptake in Italy. The present study develops a model based on a Bayesian network (BN) that is aimed at investigating the factors that affect the exit of a farm from the organic sector and to simulate the probability of maintaining an organic scheme for different farm types. The model is based on a database of organic farms, which has been integrated with qualitative information. Farm-type simulation and sensitivity analysis of most of the relevant variables have been carried out. Main results show that arable farm types are those with a higher probability to stay in the organic sector, while farmers’ age, Province the farm is situated in and farm size are the factors mostly influencing probability scores.     

西安市职业农民发展存在问题及对策

针对当前由于农业收益低、农民兼业化日益严重、专职从事农业生产的高素质农民日益减少的问题,为了弄清西安城市化、工业化进程对从事农业生产的农民状况可能发生的影响及解决对策,通过统计调查、抽样调查、专家评估的方法,对西安职业农民的发展现状和制约农民职业化的相关因素进行了调查分析。结果表明,西安市职业农民人数相对较少,职业农民整体文化程度不高,平均年龄偏大。制约职业农民发展的主要因素为：职业农民队伍素质较低,职业农民培育难度大,资金需求多融资难度大,土地流转不规范,合作社规模小等。要发展高素质的职业农民,就要加大对职业农民培养的力度,采取开展职业农民资格认证、加强农业技术培训力度、扶持农民专业合作社、放宽政策支持、给予资金扶持、建立规范有序的土地使用权流转机制等有效措施,从而缓解由于农业从业人员数量和质量的下降对农业生产发展的影响。     

Factors influencing hybrid maize farmers' risk attitudes and their perceptions in Punjab Province,Pakistan

Hybrid maize farmers have to face diverse kinds of climate, biological, price and financial risks. Farmers' risk perceptions and risk attitudes are essential elements influencing farm operations and management decisions. However, this important issue has been overlooked in the contemporary studies and therefore there is a dearth of literature on this important issue. The present research is therefore, an attempt to fill this gap. This study aims to quantify hybrid maize farmers' perceptions of disastrous risks, their attitudes towards risk and to explore the impacts of various farm and farm household factors on farmers' risk attitudes and risk perceptions. The present study is conducted in four hybrid maize growing districts of Punjab Province, Pakistan, using cross-sectional data of 400 hybrid maize farmers. Risk matrix and equally likely certainty equivalent (ELCE) method are used to rank farmers' perceptions of four catastrophic risk sources including climate, biological, price and financial risks and to investigate farmers' risk aversion attitudes, respectively. Furthermore, probit regression is used to analyze the determinants affecting farmers' risk attitudes and risk perceptions. The results of the study showed that majority of farmers are risk averse in nature and perceive price, biological and climate to be potential sources of risks to their farm enterprise. In addition, analysis divulges that distance from farm to main market, off-farm income, location dummies for Sahiwal and Okara, age, maize farming experience, access to extension agent, significantly (either negatively or positively) influence farmers' risk attitudes and risk perceptions. The study delivers valuable insights for farmers, agricultural insurance sector, extension services researchers and agricultural policy makers about the local understanding of risks to hybrid maize crop in developing countries, like Pakistan, and have implications for research on farmers' adaptation to exposed risks.     

Development of DEX-HOP multi-attribute decision model for preliminary hop hybrids assessment

Hops (Humulus lupulus L.) essentially contribute to the quality of the taste of beer and its flavor. Experimental hop breeding data from the Slovenian Institute of Hop Research and Brewing were used to create a model of an expert system based on the multi-attribute decision modeling methodology DEX. The DEX-HOP 1.0 model assessed and ranked individual hop hybrids’ and hop varieties’ breeding potential to be assessed and ranked. The model has 18 attributes, hierarchically grouped within four main attributes: Biology, Chemistry, Morphology and Brewing value. Furthermore, utility functions in the model were defined by sets of elementary decision rules throughout the entire hierarchy for all aggregated attributes. The central part of the model contains 144 decision rules, which were specified according to the model users’ previous breeding experiences. Four Slovenian hop hybrids, A1/54, A2/104, A3/112 and A4/122, and a reference hop variety Hallertauer Magnum with the target characteristics of plant resistance and brewing value were used for the model assessment. Based on the breeding experiences and model results, overall and individual attributes’ assessments were carried out. A3/112 and A4/122 reached the overall level of the reference variety and were thus assessed as appropriate for further breeding. In contrast, the attributes of A1/54 and A2/104 did not meet expectations in relation to the reference variety. Decisions based on the DEX-HOP 1.0 model assessment offered an additional tool for experts’ final decisions in selecting appropriate materials for further breeding or the commercial use of hop plants. Test results validate the application of the model for further research.     

农户油茶成本收益分析

 以福建省152个油茶Camellia oleifera栽植户239个油茶地块2007－2009年和造林年的实际投入产出数据为基础,对不同经营规模以及不同经营目的的油茶造林成本构成、投入产出差异及经济可行性进行了分析,并用净现值法分析了杉木Cunninghamia lanceolata,毛竹Phyllostachys edulis等竞争性树种的比较收益。结果得出：现有经营水平下,油茶经营规模效益明显;以销售为目的的油茶地块经济效益高于自用为目的的地块,茶油自用效应一定程度上弥补了经济效益;油茶比较收益较低,农户经营决策经济理性。表5参10     

新型农业经营主体开展农产品电子商务的现状及问题探析

文章首先对家庭农场（专业大户）、农民专业合作社以及农业产业化龙头企业等新型农业经营主体开展农产品电子商务现状进行梳理,归纳总结了各类主体开展农产品电子商务的特点以及采用的电子商务模式。其次,从客观条件和主观意识2个方面,分析了制约新型农业经营主体开展农产品电子商务的关键因素。最后,从政府管理层面和新型农业经营主体层面分别提出了促进农产品电子商务采纳的对策建议,即在政府管理层面,要从人才培养、智慧物流、精准施政、第三方服务等方面扫清障碍;在新型农业经营主体层面,提倡品牌定位精准化、生产流程标准化、生产过程可视化、营销模式多元化、产品包装规格化,充分发挥新型农业经营主体在推动农产品电子商务发展和农业现代化建设中的示范引领作用。     

东北三省春玉米产量差时空分布特征

【目的】随着人口增加、气候变化和环境问题日益凸显,粮食生产能力及粮食安全受到广泛重视。然而,目前中国粮食产量远远低于作物潜在产量,如何利用有限耕地生产更多粮食已经成为中国农业目前面临的重大问题。东北三省是中国重要的玉米生产区,其春玉米产量占全国总产量的29%,该区玉米产量提升对中国粮食安全具有重要的意义。【方法】论文以东北三省春玉米种植区为研究区域,基于1961—2010年气候资料、农业气象观测站作物资料和统计资料,利用农业生产系统模拟模型(APSIM-Maize)和数理统计方法,解析气候变化背景下研究区域春玉米潜在产量与实际产量的差及各级产量差的时空分布特征,为提升东北三省春玉米产量提供科学依据和参考。【结果】东北三省春玉米潜在产量与农户实际产量之间产量差(总产量差)呈明显的经向和纬向分布(P0.01),即由南向北递减,由西向东递减,且地区间差异较大,变化范围为4.8—11.9 t·hm~(-2)。春玉米潜在产量与可获得产量之间的产量差(产量差1)、可获得产量与农户潜在产量之间的产量差(产量差2)均呈现随经度升高而降低的趋势,这与春玉米生长季内降水量分布有关。产量差1变化范围在0.06—3.2 t·hm~(-2)之间,产量差2地区间差异较大,变化范围为1.7—8.0 t·hm~(-2),主要是由于栽培管理措施的差异造成的。从全区50年平均来看,春玉米潜在产量与实际产量间的产量差为64%,其中由于不可转化的技术因素、农学因素和经济社会因素限制的产量差分别为8%、40%和16%。从时间变化趋势来看,过去50年(1961—2010)研究区域春玉米各级产量差均呈现减小的趋势,其中总产量差和产量差3呈显著缩小趋势(P0.01),每10年分别缩小1.55 t·hm~(-2)和1.40 t·hm~(-2),但产量差1和产量差2变化趋势并不显著。【结论】东北三省春玉米潜在产量与农户实际产量之间的产量差呈明显的经向和纬向分布,即由南向北递减,由西向东递减。农学因素是限制当地玉米产量提升的主要因素,通过改善农学因素,如提高栽培管理措施、改善土壤条件和更换高产品种可有效缩小产量差达40%。     

数字农作技术研究的若干进展与发展方向

 着重介绍数字农作技术研究的若干最新进展与发展方向。数字农作即通过综合运用数字化技术，研究农作物生产系统中信息获取、处理、管理和利用的关键技术及应用系统，从而对农作系统过程的信息流实现全面的数字化表达和整合。近年来，作者围绕数字农作的关键技术及应用系统，开展了较为深入和系统的研究工作，重点在作物生长模拟模型、作物管理知识模型、作物生长无损监测、农作空间信息管理、数字农作决策系统等5个领域取得了显著的研究进展。数字农作的未来发展将需要综合运用信息管理、自动监测、动态模拟、虚拟现实、知识工程、精确控制、网络通讯等现代信息技术，以农作物生产要素与生产过程的信息化与数字化为主要研究目标，发展农业资源的信息化管理、农作状态的自动化监测、农作过程的数字化模拟、农作系统的可视化设计、农作知识的模型化表达、农作管理的精确化控制等关键技术，进一步研制综合性数字农作技术软硬件系统，实现农作系统监测、预测、设计、管理、控制的数字化、精确化、可视化、网络化。农作生长与生产系统的数字化将带动农业产业的信息化和现代化。     

Farmers' participatory selection of new rice varieties to boost production under temperate agro-ecosystems

In mountain agriculture, early maturity, high grain yield and high biomass are generally considered as farmer preferred traits in rice crop in addition to a multiple set of traits collectively responsible for variety adoption or rejection. The varieties tested only on station evaluation trials without taking the data from the farmers' fields by not including farmers as partners for variety evaluation are the reasons of low adoption of varieties. In this regard, a participatory methodology was followed by conducting a number of participatory trials in the farmers' fields during 2012–2014 in six districts of Kashmir Valley, India. The mother trials in the farmers' fields showed that the test variety SKUA-408 consistently and significantly out yielded Jhelum and farmers' variety followed by Shalimar rice 3(SR3). The other released varieties like SR1 and SR2 could not perform nicely in the farmers' fields because of late maturity. After making the t-test comparison of baby trials(paired plots), the mean yield superiority of test varieties SKUA-408, SR3, and SKUA-403 over farmers' variety during 2013 was around 23, 25, and 22%, respectively, whereas in 2014 the respective yield advantage was recorded as 16.3, 17.7, and 16.2%. In all districts, SKUA-408 and SR3 were significantly preferred by farmers(P0.05 or 0.01) in terms of pre-harvest traits namely, tillering ability and general phenotypic acceptability, early maturity and biomass and for post-harvest traits such as general cooking quality besides, the intention to grow the variety for next year. Adoption and dissemination of SKUA-408 began in 2014 from the farm-saved seed in the form of farmer to farmer seed exchange. Farmers are the end users of a variety so the decision by the farmers while judging the variety should be taken into consideration to make the varietal choice more effective for its widespread adoption.     

Sows’ activity classification device using acceleration data - A resource constrained approach

This paper discusses the main architectural alternatives and design decisions in order to implement a sows’ activity classification model on electronic devices. The different possibilities are analyzed in practical and technical aspects, focusing on the implementation metrics, like cost, performance, complexity and reliability. The target architectures are divided into: server based, where the main processing element is a central computer; and embedded based, where the processing is distributed on devices attached to the animals. The initial classification model identifies the activities performed by the sows using a multi-process Kalman filter having, as input, 3-axes data from accelerometers. However, the power demanding hardware resources to run the filters require frequent battery recharges, making its use unsuitable in the current state-of-the-art. It motivated the development of a heuristic classification approach, focusing on the resource constrained characteristics of embedded systems. The new approach classifies the activities performed by the sows with accuracy close to 90%. It was implemented as a hardware module that can easily be instantiated to provide preprocessed information to models in order to detect important situations in the sows’ life, e.g. the onset of farrowing.     

Factors affecting the adoption of on-farm milk safety measures in Northern China — An examination from the perspective of farm size and production type

The cow stock of smallholder farmers with less than 100 cows still accounted for nearly 50% of total cows in China. Since the milk scandal occurred in 2008, raw milk safety has become focus for the sound development of the Chinese dairy industry. Adoption of on-farm milk safety measures by smallholders is a key for ensuring milk safety, and these measures are largely voluntary in nature. The recent survey conducted in northern China reveals that an overall adoption rate of various milk safety measures by smallholders is close to 48% with wide variations across the dairy farmers. We employ the Poisson regression model to study the determinants of farmers' adoption of voluntary milk safety measures. Compared with backyard dairy farmers, dairy complex and scaled dairy farms adopted more milk safety measures. Moreover, the empirical result indicates that farmers' adoption of raw milk safety measures is positively affected by farm size. These findings suggest that the changing dairy production structure towards larger farms and away from backyard dairy farming prompts smallholder dairy farmers to adopt more raw milk safety measures. This lends some support to the role of recent policy initiatives towards larger farms and away from backyard dairy farming on increasing the farmers' milk safety practices and reducing on-farm incidence of milk safety.     

Poultry Farmers’ Preference and use of Commercial and Self-compounded Feeds in Oyo Area of Oyo State, Nigeria

This study investigated poultry farmers’ perceptions, preferences, and use of commercially compounded and self-compounded feeds in the Oyo Area of Oyo State, Nigeria. Data were collected from 120 poultry farmers through a structured interview schedule. The study concluded that poultry farmers prefer and use self-compounded feeds (SCF) instead of commercially compounded feeds (CCF) because (a) self-compounded feeds are of better quality than commercially compounded feeds, (b) there are no quality control measures in the poultry feed industry in the Oyo Area, (c) commercially compounded feeds cost more than self-compounded feeds, and (d) farmers choose feed based on the perceived quality of the feed, their technical ability to produce feed by themselves, the cost of CCF, the storability of feed, and the cost and availability of transportation. Based on these findings, it is recommended that interested public and private agencies should organize annual extension workshops and training for poultry farmers in the study area on (a) feed formulation; (b) feed ingredient mixing and compounding; (c) selection of ingredients, mixtures, and additives; and (d) the establishment, operation, and maintenance of feed mills. Farmers should be encouraged to form feed mill cooperative societies. The performance of the Standards Organization of Nigeria (SON) should be monitored and evaluated to ensure its effective oversight of quality standards for agricultural products and inputs such as feeds and feed ingredients. S. O. Apantaku, PhD (Southern Illinois), is an Associate Professor and Head of the Department of Agricultural Extension and Rural Development, University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, Nigeria. His research interest is in agricultural extension education processes and development, farmers’ decision-making processes, and community and rural development. He is involved in extension work and teaches group dynamics in extension, rural community development and social change, agricultural extension teaching methods and learning processes, public relations in extension, and advanced rural sociology. E. O. A. Oluwalana is a PhD candidate and an Extension Research Fellow with the Agricultural Media Resources and Extension Center, University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, Nigeria. Her research interest is in farmers’ micro-credit financing, agro-processing and utilization, and women-in-agriculture. She teaches agribusiness management, cooperatives and agricultural finance and is involved in extension service in the area of women-in-development, agro-processing, and health and environmental issues. O. A. Adepegba is a graduate of the Department of Agricultural Extension and Rural Development, University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, Nigeria. She is presently a postgraduate candidate at the University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria. She is an Agricultural Extension Officer I with the Oyo West Local Government Council, Oyo State. She is interested in socio-economic issues in poultry production and farmers’ decision-making processes.     

Information services for European pork chains - Closing gaps in information infrastructures

Several global developments (e.g. diminishing production resources, growing demand for bio-energy) and numerous sector-wide crises (e.g. BSE, swine fever, dioxin) have led to a changing attitude of society towards the consequences of the food systems activities for social, economic and environmental issues, captured in the term of sustainability. Consumers in their role as final customers, and as a consequence also enterprises within agri-food supply chains, show increasing interest in the characteristics of food, and in turn, on the availability of related information and guarantees. Enterprises in agri-food supply chains are facing new expectations and are seeking to communicate social, economic and environmental performance of their business to customers within their supply chain and to consumers. New solutions for determination and communication of sustainability are needed for the agri-food sector, covering single aspects of sustainability as well as sustainability in a broader sense, including social, economic and environmental issues. Integrated, computer-based information services, since they are mainly building on existing systems, provide flexible solutions for enterprises to measure and evaluate sustainability of products throughout agri-food supply chains. Gained information on product characteristics might be used for decision support within enterprises as well as for communication of sustainable practices to customers and consumers, resulting in increased competitiveness of enterprises, supply chains and the sector by satisfying customers’ and consumers’ demands for information on the sustainability of a product. The present paper introduces a framework for developing information services for European pork chains using the three selected information domains food safety (representing social sustainability), quality (representing economic sustainability) and global warming potential (representing environmental sustainability). Resulting information models give an aggregated overview on information availability and exchange in European pork chains, additional information demands of possible service users and deficiencies in the existing information infrastructures. The paper supports different stakeholders involved in agri-food production, such as service developers, enterprise decision makers and management consultants, in developing enterprise- and chain-specific solutions which meet customers’ and consumers’ demands by providing appropriate sustainability information and guarantees.     

现代森林资源经营与管理信息系统建设

为了更好地给森林资源经营与管理者的决策提供科学、合理的数据和信息,该文提出了基于地理信息技术与决策支持技术的现代森林资源经营与管理信息系统的系统框架.在该系统中,决策支持系统与地理信息系统是两个独立的模块,它们通过数据文件连接起来,包括人机交互平台、地理信息系统工具、模型库和知识库4个部分.通过人机交互平台将数据库、专家知识库和模型库有机地结合起来,具有专家咨询、辅助决策和预测预报等功能,从而为森林资源管理与经营者提供各项业务所需要的信息,以实现森林资源经营与管理的智能化.