Bayesian analysis to validate a commercial ELISA to detect paratuberculosis in dairy herds of southern Chile

In Chile, Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map) has been isolated on several occasions and clinical cases have been reported. Nevertheless, diagnostic tests have not yet been validated for this agent in the Chilean setting. The objective of the study was to validate a commercial ELISA to detect Map shedding dairy cows in management conditions, prevalence and stages of infection existing in Southern Chile, utilising different statistical approaches. Blood and faeces were collected from 1333 lactating cows in 27 dairy herds (both large commercial and smallholder dairy farms) between September 2003 and August 2004. Within the herds up to a maximum of 100 dairy cows were selected based on age (>or=3 years old) and, if present, clinical signs of a Map infection. In herds with less than 100 cows, all cows >or=3 years old were sampled. Blood samples were tested using a commercial ELISA kit (IDEXX Laboratories, Inc.). Faecal samples were cultured on Herrold's Egg Yolk Medium (HEYM). Latent class models (i.e. maximum likelihood (ML) methods and Bayesian inference) were used to determine the validity of the ELISA. Map was cultured from 54 (4.1%) cows and 10 (37.0%) herds, which were all large, commercial dairy herds. As a result of empty cells in the cross-tabulations, the ML model provided the same results as the validation with faecal culture as the gold-standard. In the Bayesian model, the Se and Sp of the ELISA were estimated to be 26% (95% CI: 18-35%) and 98.5% (95% CI: 97.4-99.4%), respectively. For faecal culture, the Se was 54% (95% CI: 46-62%) and the Sp was 100% (95% CI: 99.9-100%). Interestingly, the prevalence in the smallholder dairy farms was estimated to be 8% even though there were no faecal culture positive cows detected in those herds. There was no significant correlation between the two tests. The advantage of Bayesian inference is that the Se and Sp of both tests are obtained in one model relative to the (latent) true disease status, the model can handle small datasets and empty cells and the estimates can be corrected for the correlation between tests when the tests are not conditionally independent. Therefore, Bayesian analysis was the preferred method for Map that lacks a gold-standard and usually has low cow-level prevalence.     

Prevalence of paratuberculosis infection in dairy cattle in Northern Italy

Paratuberculosis is a chronic granulomatous infection caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) that affects multiple ruminant species causing important economic losses. Therefore, control programmes at herd and regional levels have been established worldwide and prevalence estimates are needed for their implementation. Although different herd-level prevalence estimations for paratuberculosis have been reported in Europe, very few studies provided comparable and interpretable values, due to poor study designs and lack of knowledge about the accuracy of the diagnostic tests used. To overcome these problems we applied a latent class analysis to the results of two prevalence studies carried out in two neighbouring Northern Italian regions (Lombardy and Veneto) that account for over 50% of the Italian dairy cattle population. Serum samples from a randomly selected number of farms in the two regions were analyzed by different ELISA tests. The herd-level Apparent Prevalences (AP) were 48% (190/391) for Lombardy and 65% (272/419) for Veneto. Median within-herd APs were 2.6% and 4.0% for Lombardy and Veneto, respectively. Posterior estimates for the herd-level True Prevalences (TP) based on a Bayesian model were very similar between the two regions (70% for Lombardy and 71% for Veneto) and close to previous estimates of infected herds in Europe. The two 95% credibility intervals overlap each other, virtually showing only one distribution of the herd-level true prevalence for both regions. On the contrary, estimates of the within-herd TP distributions differed between the two regions (mean values: 6.7% for Lombardy and 14.3% for Veneto), possibly due to the different age distribution within the herds from the two regions.     

Evaluation of two herd-level diagnostic tests for Streptococcus agalactiae using a latent class approach

Streptococcus agalactiae mastitis persists as a significant economic problem for the dairy industry in many countries. In Denmark, the annual surveillance programme for this mastitis pathogen initially based only on bacteriological culture of bulk tank milk (BTM) samples, has recently incorporated the use of the real-time PathoProof Mastitis PCR assay with the goal of improving detection of infected herds. The objective of our study was to estimate the herd sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of both tests of BTM samples using latent class models in a Bayesian analysis while evaluating the effect of herd-level covariates on the Se and Sp of the tests. BTM samples were collected from all 4258 Danish dairy herds in 2009 and screened for the presence of S. agalactiae using both tests. The highest Se of PCR was realized at a cycle threshold (Ct) cut-off value of 40. At this cut-off, the Se of the PCR was significantly higher (95.2; 95% posterior credibility interval [PCI] [88.2; 99.8]) than that of bacteriological culture (68.0; 95% PCI [55.1; 90.0]). However, culture had higher Sp (99.7; 95% PCI [99.3; 100.0]) compared to PCR (98.8; 95% PCI [97.2; 99.9]). The accuracy of the tests was unaffected by the herd-level covariates. We propose that screenings of BTM samples for S. agalactiae be based on the PCR assay with Ct readings of <40 considered as positive. However, for higher Ct values, confirmation of PCR test positive herds by bacteriological culture is advisable especially when the between-herd prevalence of S. agalactiae is low.     

Herd-level prevalence of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis by bulk-tank milk PCR in Fars province (southern Iran) dairy herds

A cross-sectional study was conducted from March to August 2006 in dairy herds in Fars province, southern Iran to determine the herd-level prevalence of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) infection. Bulk-tank milk samples were collected from 110 dairy herds in the 3 districts (Shiraz, Marvdasht and Sepidan) of the province. Among study populations, 12 herds (11%, 95%CI: 5-17%) were positive for MAP infection based on IS900 nested PCR. The prevalence of positive milk samples in the three districts of Fars province was different ranging from 8.6% to 23% which was not statistically significant (P=0.19). It is recommended to conduct further epidemiologic studies to determine cow-level prevalence and risk factors for infection, and to evaluate the economic consequences of the MAP infection in the region.     

Seroprevalence of Mycobacterium avium subsp paratuberculosis infection among dairy cows in Colorado and herd-level risk factors for seropositivity

OBJECTIVE: To estimate seroprevalence of Mycobacterium avium subsp paratuberculosis (MAP) infection among adult dairy cows in Colorado and determine herd-level factors associated with the risk that individual cows would be seropositive. DESIGN: Cross-sectional observational study. ANIMALS: 10,280 adult (> or = 2 years old) dairy cows in 15 herds in Colorado. PROCEDURE: Serum samples were tested with a commercial ELISA. A herd was considered to be infected with MAP if results of mycobacterial culture of > or = 1 individual cow fecal sample were positive or if > or = 1 culled cow had histologic evidence of MAP infection. RESULTS: 424 of the 10,280 (4.12%) cows were seropositive. Within-herd prevalence of seropositive cows ranged from 0% to 7.82% (mean, 2.6%). Infection was confirmed in 11 dairies. Cows in herds that had imported > or = 8% of their current herd size annually during the preceding 5 years were 3.28 times as likely to be seropositive as were cows in herds that imported < 8%. Cows in herds with > or = 600 lactating cows were 3.12 times as likely to be seropositive as were cows in herds with < 600 lactating cows. Cows in herds with a history of clinical signs of MAP infection were 2.27 times as likely to be seropositive as were cows in herds without clinical signs. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Annual importation rate, herd size, and whether cows in the herd had clinical signs typical of MAP infection were associated with the risk that individual cows would be seropositive for MAP infection.     

Risk factors for digital dermatitis in dairy cows kept in cubicle houses in The Netherlands

The presence of digital dermatitis (DD) in dairy cows has increased considerably over the last 10 years in The Netherlands, resulting in a current prevalence of approximately 30% in cows kept in cubicle houses. Our objective was to evaluate a diversified sample of cow- and herd-related risk factors for DD in dairy cows housed in cubicle houses with different flooring systems. Associations were analysed in random-effects logistic-regression models using 2,134 cows (37 herds) and 2,892 cows (47 herds) in the pasture and housing studies, respectively. At cow-level, the odds of having DD were increased in the case of lower parity and lactation. Important risk factors at herd-level were: restricted grazing time, fast rise in concentrate amount after calving, feeding by-products, herd trimming only at long intervals, and introduction of dry cows into the lactating herd before calving. The odds for DD were lower if cows were housed on a slatted floor with manure scraper and provided long and wide cubicles, and if calves were reared in the dairy cows' accommodation.     

Evaluation of microbial culture of pooled fecal samples for detection of Mycobacterium avium subsp paratuberculosis in large dairy herds

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate sensitivity of microbial culture of pooled fecal samples for detection of Mycobacterium avium subsp paratuberculosis (MAP) in large dairy herds and assess the use of the method for estimation of MAP prevalence. ANIMALS: 1,740 lactating cows from 29 dairy herds in California. PROCEDURE: Serum from each cow was tested by use of a commercial ELISA kit. Individual fecal samples were cultured and used to create pooled fecal samples (10 randomly selected fecal samples/pool; 6 pooled samples/herd). Sensitivity of MAP detection was compared between Herrold's egg yolk (HEY) agar and a new liquid culture method. Bayesian methods were used to estimate true prevalence of MAP-infected cows and herd sensitivity. RESULTS: Estimated sensitivity for pooled fecal samples among all herds was 0.69 (25 culture-positive pools/36 pools that were MAP positive). Sensitivity increased as the number of culture-positive samples in a pool increased. The HEY agar method detected more infected cows than the liquid culture method but had lower sensitivity for pooled fecal samples. Prevalence of MAP-infected cows was estimated to be 4% (95% probability interval, 2% to 6%) on the basis of culture of pooled fecal samples. Herd-level sensitivity estimate ranged from 90% to 100% and was dependent on prevalence in the population and the sensitivity for culture of pooled fecal samples. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Use of pooled fecal samples from 10 cows was a cost-effective tool for herd screening and may provide a good estimate of the percentage of MAP-infected cows in dairy herds with a low prevalence of MAP.     

Comparison of milk and serum enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays for diagnosis of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis infection in dairy cattle.

Milk and serum samples from 35 dairy herds in 17 states were evaluated for cow- and herd-level Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) antibody test agreement. Evaluation of 6,349 samples suggested moderate agreement between milk and serum enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) results, with a kappa value of 0.50. Cow-level sensitivity (Se) for 18 dairy operations with 1,921 animals was evaluated relative to fecal culture results. At the cow level, the milk ELISA relative Se was not significantly different from that of the serum ELISA (21.2 and 23.5%, respectively). Logistic regression models revealed a positive association between lactation number and milk ELISA status. Non-Holstein cows were more likely to test milk ELISA positive than Holstein cows. Cows in the first 2 weeks of lactation and after week 45 of lactation were more likely to test milk ELISA positive than cows between 3 and 12 weeks of lactation. Milk production > 80% of herd average was negatively associated with testing milk ELISA positive. Animals in the West and Midwest regions were less likely than animals in the Southeast region to test ELISA positive by either test. Estimates for herd-level sensitivity for the milk and serum ELISA, relative to fecal culture results, ranged from 56 to 83%. At the cow and herd levels, milk ELISA performed equivalent to serum ELISA using fecal culture as a reference for MAP infection and has the advantage of decreased labor costs on farms that use Dairy Herd Improvement Association testing.     

Prevalence of Shiga-toxigenic Escherichia coli O157:H7 in adult dairy cattle

OBJECTIVE: To describe shiga-toxigenic Escherichia coil O157:H7 (STEC O157:H7) fecal shedding prevalence, seasonal fecal shedding patterns, and site-specific prevalence from the oral cavity, skin, and feces of dairy cattle. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. ANIMALS: Adult dairy cattle from 13 herds in Louisiana. PROCEDURE: Samples were cultured for STEC O157 by use of sensitive and specific techniques, including selective broth enrichment, immunomagnetic separation, monoclonal antibody-based O:H enzyme immunoassay serotyping, and polymerase chain reaction virulence gene characterization. Point estimates and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for fecal shedding prevalence as well as site-specific prevalence from the oral cavity, skin, and feces. Logistic regression was used to assess seasonal variation and differences at various stages of lactation with respect to fecal shedding of STEC O157 in cattle sampled longitudinally. RESULTS: Summer prevalence in herds in = 13) was 38.5%, with a cow-level prevalence of 6.5%. Among positive herds, prevalence ranged from 3% to 34.6%. Samples from 3 of 5 herds sampled quarterly over 1 year yielded positive results for STEC O157. In herds with STEC O157, an increase in cow-level prevalence was detected during spring (13.3%) and summer (10.5%), compared with values for fall and winter. Site-specific prevalences of STEC O157:H7 from oral cavity, skin, and fecal samples were 0%, 0.7%, and 25.2%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Our data indicated that STEC O157:H7 was commonly isolated from dairy cows in Louisiana, seasonally shed, and isolated from the skin surface but not the oral cavity of cows.     

Associations between farm management practices, productivity, and bovine leukemia virus infection in Ontario dairy herds

The objective of this study was to investigate the associations between herd-level bovine leukemia virus (BLV) status and herd-level management and production variables. The study population consisted of 1330 cows sampled from 102 Ontario dairy herds. The individual-cow prevalence of BLV infection in the population (based on AGID testing) was 23%, with 69.6% of herds having one or more positive animals. The herd-level explanatory variables were divided into two datasets containing winter housing variables and all non-seasonal variables, and summer housing variables and all non-seasonal variables. In both datasets, multivariable analyses found a negative association between herd-level milk production and BLV status, and positive associations between weaning age and purchasing animals from outside sources, and BLV status. Housing pre-weaned calves in hutches or separate calf buildings in either season was associated with an increased risk of BLV. The model containing winter housing variables also included positive associations between contact with older animals and BLV status, and between BLV status and the facilities used to house dry cows in the winter.     

Estimation of sensitivity and specificity of pregnancy diagnosis using transrectal ultrasonography and ELISA for pregnancy-associated glycoprotein in dairy cows using a Bayesian latent class model

AIMS: To determine the sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of pregnancy diagnosis using transrectal ultrasonography and an ELISA for pregnancy-associated glycoprotein (PAG) in milk, in lactating dairy cows in seasonally calving herds approximately 85–100 days after the start of the herd’s breeding period.

METHODS: Paired results were used from pregnancy diagnosis using transrectal ultrasonography and ELISA for PAG in milk carried out approximately 85 and 100 days after the start of the breeding period, respectively, from 879 cows from four herds in Victoria, Australia. A Bayesian latent class model was used to estimate the proportion of cows pregnant, the Se and Sp of each test, and covariances between test results in pregnant and non-pregnant cows. Prior probability estimates were defined using beta distributions for the expected proportion of cows pregnant, Se and Sp for each test, and covariances between tests. Markov Chain Monte Carlo iterations identified posterior distributions for each of the unknown variables. Posterior distributions for each parameter were described using medians and 95% probability (i.e. credible) intervals (PrI). The posterior median estimates for Se and Sp for each test were used to estimate positive predictive and negative predictive values across a range of pregnancy proportions.

RESULTS: The estimate for proportion pregnant was 0.524 (95% PrI?=?0.485–0.562). For pregnancy diagnosis using transrectal ultrasonography, Se and Sp were 0.939 (95% PrI?=?0.890–0.974) and 0.943 (95% PrI?=?0.885–0.984), respectively; for ELISA, Se and Sp were 0.963 (95% PrI?=?0.919–0.990) and 0.870 (95% PrI?=?0.806–0.931), respectively. The estimated covariance between test results was 0.033 (95% PrI?=?0.008–0.046) and 0.035 (95% PrI?=?0.018–0.078) for pregnant and non-pregnant cows, respectively. Pregnancy diagnosis results using transrectal ultrasonography had a higher positive predictive value but lower negative predictive value than results from the ELISA across the range of pregnancy proportions assessed.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Pregnancy diagnosis using transrectal ultrasonography and ELISA for PAG in milk had similar Se but differed in predictive values. Pregnancy diagnosis in seasonally calving herds around 85–100 days after the start of the breeding period using the ELISA is expected to result in a higher negative predictive value but lower positive predictive value than pregnancy diagnosis using transrectal ultrasonography. Thus, with the ELISA, a higher proportion of the cows with negative results will be non-pregnant, relative to results from transrectal ultrasonography, but a lower proportion of cows with positive results will be pregnant.     

Management-related risk factors for M. paratuberculosis infection in Michigan, USA, dairy herds

A cross-sectional study was conducted from June through December 1996 to identify management-related risk factors for herd-level M. paratuberculosis infection. Data were collected from 121 participating herds. A two-part questionnaire was administered to gather data on current and previous management practices and herd productivity. A random sample of cows aged ≥24 months was selected from each herd and tested for antibodies to M. paratuberculosis using the IDEXX Antibody ELISA (sensitivity 64%, specificity 96%). A positive herd was one in which ≥2 animals tested positive for antibodies to M. paratuberculosis. A negative herd was one in which no animal tested positive. Herds in which only one animal tested positive were dropped from statistical analysis to reduce the risk of including false-positive herds in the statistical analyses.

There were 80 herds with one or more positive animals and 41 herds with no positive animals in the sample (66% herd-level prevalence). Twenty-six herds (21%) were dropped from further analyses because they had only one positive cow. Twelve herds (10%) were dropped from analysis because of missing data. The resulting sample used for statistical modeling included 46 positive herds and 37 negative herds (55% herd-level prevalence). A multi-variable logistic-regression model was used to evaluate the results. The variable ‘use of an exercise lot for lactating cows' was associated with a three-fold increase in odds of a herd being positive for M. paratuberculosis infection (O.R.=3.01, C.I.=1.03–8.80); ‘cleaning of maternity pens after each use' was associated with a three-fold reduction in odds of a herd being positive for M. paratuberculosis infection (O.R.=0.28, C.I.=0.08–0.89); ‘application of lime to pasture areas in 1993' resulted in a ten-fold decrease in odds of a herd being positive for M. paratuberculosis infection (O.R.=0.10, C.I.=0.02–0.56).     

Strategies for two-stage sampling designs for estimating herd-level prevalence

We propose a herd-level sample-size formula based on a common adjustment for prevalence estimates when diagnostic tests are imperfect. The formula depends on estimates of herd-level sensitivity and specificity. With Monte Carlo simulations, we explored the effects of different intracluster correlations on herd-level sensitivity and specificity. At low prevalence (e.g. 1% of animals infected), herd-level sensitivity increased with increasing intracluster correlation and many herds were classified as positive based only on false-positive test results. Herd-level sensitivity was less affected at higher prevalence (e.g. 20% of animals infected). A real-life example was developed for estimating ovine progressive pneumonia prevalence in sheep. The approach allows researchers to balance the number of herds and the total number of animals sampled by manipulating herd-level test characteristics (such as the number of animals sampled within a herd).     

Evaluation of a bulk-milk ELISA test for the classification of herd-level bovine leukemia virus status

The results of a commercial bulk-milk enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) test for herd-level bovine leukemia virus (BLV) status were compared to results obtained from individual agar-gel immunodiffussion (AGID) testing on sampled cattle. A positive herd was defined as a herd having one or more AGID-positive animals. The estimated true herd status was based on the sensitivity and specificity of the AGID test and the number of cattle sampled per herd. Ninety-seven herds were used, with a mean of 13 cows sampled per herd. The AGID test indicated an apparent herd prevalence of 70.1%. After accounting for the number of cows sampled and the sensitivity and specificity of the AGID test, the estimated true herd prevalence of BLV was 52.3%. The ELISA test identified 79.4% of herds as positive for BLV, and had an apparent sensitivity and specificity of 0.97 and 0.62, respectively. However, after accounting for the sensitivity and specificity of the AGID test in individual animals, the specificity of the ELISA test was 0.44. The ELISA test was useful for identifying BLV-negative herds (i.e., ruling out the presence of BLV infection in test negative herds). With the moderately low specificity, herds identified as positive by the ELISA test would require further testing at the individual or herd level to definitively establish their BLV status.     

Risk factors associated with Neospora caninum seropositivity in randomly sampled Canadian dairy cows and herds

Our objective was to determine cow- and herd-level risk factors associated with seropositivity for Neospora caninum in a large number of randomly selected Canadian dairy herds, controlling for important confounding variables and co-infections with bovine leukemia virus (BLV), bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) and Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP). Serum samples were obtained from 30 randomly selected cows, where available, in 240 herds using monthly milk testing, within 6 of 10 provinces, and these samples were tested for antibodies against BLV, MAP and N. caninum using commercially available ELISA test kits. Five unvaccinated cattle >6 months old from each herd were tested for antibodies to BVDV using virus neutralization. Most herd-level predictors were obtained through personal interviews with questionnaires administrated to each farm manager. A mixed logistic-regression model was built using N. caninum serostatus at the cow-level as the outcome variable, with herd as a random effect and province as a fixed effect. A BLV seropositive cow was 1.50 times more likely to be seropositive for N. caninum than a BLV-seronegative cow, and this was the only cow-level variable to remain in the final model. Regarding herd-level variables, with “no on-farm dogs” as the baseline, “presence of dogs but not known to eat placentas and/or fetuses” increased the odds of seropositivity for N. caninum by a factor of 1.66. For “presence of dogs known to eat placentas and/or fetuses”, the odds ratio (OR) was 2.75, demonstrating a dose–response relationship. “Using embryo transfer” (OR = 0.69), “asking for a BVDV-negative test before introducing an animal” (OR = 0.30), “using monensin in dry cows” (OR = 0.71), and “heifers having nose-to-nose contact with calves” (OR = 0.73) were all dichotomous variables negatively associated with seropositivity for N. caninum. “Number of milk cows on the farm” (OR = 0.99), and “area (acres) used for forage production” (OR = 0.99) were continuous variables negatively associated with N. caninum seropositivity.     

Bayesian modeling of animal- and herd-level prevalences

We reviewed Bayesian approaches for animal-level and herd-level prevalence estimation based on cross-sectional sampling designs and demonstrated fitting of these models using the WinBUGS software. We considered estimation of infection prevalence based on use of a single diagnostic test applied to a single herd with binomial and hypergeometric sampling. We then considered multiple herds under binomial sampling with the primary goal of estimating the prevalence distribution and the proportion of infected herds. A new model is presented that can be used to estimate the herd-level prevalence in a region, including the posterior probability that all herds are non-infected. Using this model, inferences for the distribution of prevalences, mean prevalence in the region, and predicted prevalence of herds in the region (including the predicted probability of zero prevalence) are also available. In the models presented, both animal- and herd-level prevalences are modeled as mixture distributions to allow for zero infection prevalences. (If mixture models for the prevalences were not used, prevalence estimates might be artificially inflated, especially in herds and regions with low or zero prevalence.) Finally, we considered estimation of animal-level prevalence based on pooled samples.     

Herd-level prevalence of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis infection in United States dairy herds in 2007

Testing of composite fecal (environmental) samples from high traffic areas in dairy herds has been shown to be a cost-effective and sensitive method for classification of herd status for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP). In the National Animal Health Monitoring System's (NAHMS) Dairy 2007 study, the apparent herd-level prevalence of MAP was 70.4% (369/524 had ≥1 culture-positive composite fecal samples out of 6 tested). Based on these data, the true herd-level prevalence (HP) of MAP infection was estimated using Bayesian methods adjusting for the herd sensitivity (HSe) and herd specificity (HSp) of the test method. The Bayesian prior for HSe of composite fecal cultures was based on data from the NAHMS Dairy 2002 study and the prior for HSp was based on expert opinion. The posterior median HP (base model) was 91.1% (95% probability interval, 81.6 to 99.3%) and estimates were most sensitive to the prior for HSe. The HP was higher than estimated from the NAHMS Dairy 1996 and 2002 studies but estimates are not directly comparable with those of prior NAHMS studies because of the different testing methods and criteria used for herd classification.     

A retrospective evaluation of a Bovine Herpesvirus-1 (BHV-1) antibody ELISA on bulk-tank milk samples for classification of the BHV-1 status of Danish dairy herds

Bulk-tank milk samples analysed in a Bovine Herpesvirus-1 (BHV-1) blocking ELISA are still in use in the Danish BHV-1 programme as a tool to classify dairy herds as BHV-1 infected or BHV-1 free herds. In this retrospective study, we used data from the Danish BHV-1 eradication campaign to evaluate performance characteristics of the BHV-1 blocking ELISA in 1039 BHV-1-seropositive and 502 repeatedly BHV-1-negative dairy herds using the results of blood testing of the individual animals as the true infection status. At a cut-off value of 30% blocking reaction, the herd-level relative sensitivity and relative specificity were 82 and 100%, respectively. The herd-level relative sensitivity depended on the within-herd prevalence of seropositive cows and the cut-off value in the assay, but not on the time interval (up to 90 days) between the collection of the bulk-tank milk sample and the individual serum samples. The BHV-1 blocking ELISA on bulk-tank milk could detect seropositive herds (few), with prevalence proportions as low as one seropositive cow out of 70 cows.     

Accuracy of the composite somatic cell count to detect intra-mammary infection in dairy cows using latent class analysis

The somatic cell count (SCC) is considered an important indicator of intra-mammary infection (IMI). The purpose of this study was to determine the accuracy of both SCC and culture to detect IMI and their conditional dependence by means of latent class methods. This study involved 175 dairy cows from 2 herds with different udder infection prevalences. Quarter and composite milk samples were collected for SCC and bacteriological culture. Latent-class models using Bayesian methods were used to estimate test sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) and population prevalence. The models ran involved only major mastitis pathogens and composite SCC (CSCC). Five thresholds between 100,000 and 300,000 cells/mL were evaluated and the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis was performed. Fifty-five percent of the cows had CSCC ≥200,000 cells/mL and 95.4% of the cows had at least one infected quarter either with minor or major pathogens. Considering a threshold of 150,000 cells/mL, the estimated Se and Sp for the CSCC were, 0.80 (95% CrI 0.71–0.88) and 0.57 (95% CrI 0.44–0.71), respectively. The estimated culture Se and Sp were 0.83 (95% CrI 0.73–0.93) and 0.89 (95% CrI 0.74–0.98), respectively. There was no evidence of dependence between CSCC and culture. The area under curve for CSCC was 0.72. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of the CSCC accuracy to detect IMI for major pathogens considering the effect of culture misclassification. The estimates provided here could help to examine the performance of sampling schemes based on CSCC to manage udder health.     

Longitudinal study to investigate variation in results of repeated ELISA and culture of fecal samples for Mycobacterium avium subsp paratuberculosis in commercial dairy herds

OBJECTIVE: To determine sources and amounts of variation in a kinetics ELISA (KELA) and results of culture of fecal samples for Mycobacterium avium subsp paratuberculosis (MAP) in repeated tests of individual cows. ANIMALS: 112 cows on 6 commercial dairy farms in New York. PROCEDURE: A nonrandom longitudinal study was conducted from January 2001 to March 2002. A KELA was performed monthly, and MAP culture was performed bimonthly. Cow- and herd-level data were collected. The KELA and culture results were analyzed by use of models that corrected for clustering within herds and repeated measures on cows. RESULTS: Cows of second or higher lactation had increased KELA values, compared with values for first-lactation cows. Cows had lowest KELA values during the first 15 days in milk; KELA values increased until 60 days in milk and then stabilized. Moderate and heavy shedders had significantly higher KELA values than culture-negative cows, and KELA values of shedders progressively increased over time. On average, the KELA value was significantly increased 132 days after a cow was first detected to be a moderate shedder and 236 days after a cow was first detected to be a low shedder. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Analysis suggests that KELA results vary on a cow-level on the basis of lactation number and stage of lactation. High KELA values indicate heavy fecal shedding, but the KELA is not useful in identifying low and moderate shedders that can require up to 236 days to have a significant increase in KELA value.