Economic impacts of reduced pork production associated with the diagnosis of Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae on grower/finisher swine operations in the United States

An examination of the economic impacts of the diagnosis of Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae on grower/finisher swine operations indicated that reduced pork production, associated with the diagnosis of A. pleuropneumoniae on the operation, diminished consumer surplus by $53 ± 52 million, and resulted in a total loss of $32 ± 30 million to the US economy in 1995. Most of the economic surplus lost by consumers was transferred to producers, whose economic surplus increased by $21 ± 25 million (which was not significantly different from zero). Uncertainty analysis showed that an estimate of the decline in production associated with the diagnosis of A. pleuropneumoniae accounted for most of the uncertainty of the change in consumer surplus and of the total loss to the economy. The estimate of the price elasticity of demand for pork also contributed towards a lot of the uncertainty in the estimated change in producer surplus.     

中国猪肉价格波动研究——兼与美国的比较

猪肉价格的大幅波动给我国的生猪生产及猪肉消费带来极大的影响。本文通过对1995年以来猪肉月度价格变动及1985到2006年生猪及猪肉年度价格波动的分析,探讨我国猪肉市场价格的长短期变动规律,并从生猪的生产结构、生产周期、生产成本、疫情、宏观环境及与美国的猪肉市场的国际比较等方面解析中国猪肉价格波动的原因。提出鼓励并扶持生猪的规模化生产、提高生猪行业的组织化程度、加大政府投入力度、完善动物防疫体系等主要对策措施。     

Toward a better understanding of pig behavior and pig welfare

Pork production began to flourish in the USA after the practice of finishing pigs on corn was popularized in the late 1600s. By the 1840s, there were 35 million pigs and 20 million people in the USA and Cincinnati was the world's largest pork market. Between 1890 and the present, the total number of pigs in the USA has remained at 50-60 million, but dramatic changes in swine husbandry over the course of the 20th century have metamorphosed pig production from small, extensive (outdoor), labor-dependent enterprises into large, intensive (indoor), capital-dependent, production systems. This development has led to debate concerning the impact of swine production on animal/human health, the environment, and the welfare of the animals under our care. In a very tangible way, the future of pork production depends on effectively addressing the public's concerns regarding animal welfare and health. Here, we review basic sensory and behavioral aspects of swine with the objective of reaching a better understanding of pig behavior and pig welfare. The premise of this discussion is that safeguarding animal welfare and health is good for pigs, pork producers and the animal-conscious public.     

非洲猪瘟疫情对我国生猪生产与市场的影响

非洲猪瘟疫情对中国生猪产业可能产生巨大且长期的影响。一方面因为生猪饲养量大幅度减少,造成供给不足;另一方面,尽管猪肉消费在短期受到了一定程度的抑制,但由于消费偏好无法短期内改变,猪肉“刚需”仍然存在。预计2019年中国猪肉供需缺口将在1000万t左右,全年猪价将呈现“先抑后扬”态势,生猪价格将可能在近两年内都处在较高水平。猪价上升可能通过产业链波及至食品全行业,导致物价水平整体上涨。建议加大生猪生产扶持力度,调动生猪养殖积极性;明确政府管理权责,确保猪肉稳定供应;遵从产消对接、区域互补原则,以农牧结合为前提,构建生猪生产消费均衡区域布局。     

Assessment of the economic impact of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome on swine production in the United States

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the annual cost of infections attributable to porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) virus to US swine producers. DESIGN: Economic analysis. SAMPLE POPULATION: Data on the health and productivity of PRRS-affected and PRRS-unaffected breeding herds and growing-pig populations were collected from a convenience sample of swine farms in the midwestern United States. PROCEDURE: Health and productivity variables of PRRS-affected and PRRS-unaffected swine farms were analyzed to estimate the impact of PRRS on specific farms. National estimates of PRRS incidence were then used to determine the annual economic impact of PRRS on US swine producers. RESULTS: PRRS affected breeding herds and growing-pig populations as measured by a decrease in reproductive health, an increase in deaths, and reductions in the rate and efficiency of growth. Total annual economic impact of these effects on US swine producers was estimated at dollar 66.75 million in breeding herds and dollar 493.57 million in growing-pig populations. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: PRRS imposes a substantial financial burden on US swine producers and causes approximately dollar 560.32 million in losses each year. By comparison, prior to eradication, annual losses attributable to classical swine fever (hog cholera) and pseudorabies were estimated at dollar 364.09 million and dollar 36.27 million, respectively (adjusted on the basis of year 2004 dollars). Current PRRS control strategies are not predictably successful; thus, PRRS-associated losses will continue into the future. Research to improve our understanding of ecologic and epidemiologic characteristics of the PRRS virus and technologic advances (vaccines and diagnostic tests) to prevent clinical effects are warranted.     

我国畜产品生产与贸易

对1990-2009年中国与世界主要畜产品生产和贸易进行分析,近20年世界和中国主要畜产品产量均呈增加趋势。1990-2009年,世界和中国肉类产量由17.99和3.0千万t增到28.39和7.8千万t,中国占世界比重由16.9%增到27.5%;世界鸡蛋产量由3.52千万t增到6.28千万t,中国占世界比重从18.61%增到37.61%;中国牛奶产量近20年增加8倍;世界羊毛产量从3.35百万t降至2.04百万t,中国羊毛产量由23.94万t上升到36.40万t。牛肉净贸易逆差量从478 t增到1694 t;2009年羊肉贸易逆差量和逆差额为7.65万t和1.566亿美元(美元),比1990年增加745.6%和1102%。中国猪肉进出口除2000年和2006-2008年外,其他年份贸易量和贸易额都处顺差;中国禽肉进口远超出口,1990-2006年贸易额处顺差,2007-2009年贸易额处逆差。2000-2009年,鸡蛋出口量持续增至13.47万t,2009年鸡蛋进口量268 t。过去20年,中国牛奶贸易处顺差,2009年其进口量和进口额增至1.46万t和1.18千万美元,比2008年增加80.9%和64.05%;中国羊毛贸易处逆差,逆差量和逆差额由3.52万t和1.274亿美元增至26.92万t和1.368亿美元。因动物疫病、药物残留、动物福利等问题,中国畜产品国际贸易受到限制,需从饲草生产、养殖、产品加工、流通等环节加以改善。     

Epidemiological characteristics and financial costs of the 1997 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Taiwan

Between March and July 1997, a devastating outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), serotype O, occurred in pigs in Taiwan. A total of 6,147 pig farms with more than 4 million pigs were infected, and 37.7 per cent of the pigs in Taiwan either died (0.18 million pigs) or were killed (3.85 million pigs). The epidemic reached its peak during the fifth week after it was first recognised. During the eighth and ninth weeks, a two-dose blanket vaccination programme was instituted which led to a large reduction in new outbreaks. Except for two cities, the whole of Taiwan was declared an FMD-infected zone. During the four months in which new farm outbreaks occurred, 21.7 per cent of the pigs on infected farms showed clinical signs, and there was an overall mortality of 3.95 per cent. During the early stages of the epidemic, the incubation period was as short as 24 hours and the case fatality rates for suckling piglets reached 100 per cent. The financial cost of the epidemic was estimated at US$ 378.6 million, including indemnities, vaccines, carcase disposal plus environmental protection, miscellaneous expenses, and loss of market value. Owing to the ban on exports of pork to Japan, it is estimated that the total economic cost to Taiwan's pig industry will be about US$ 1.6 billion.     

非洲猪瘟对我国生猪养殖产业的影响与展望

非洲猪瘟病毒从2018年下旬入侵我国,对我国生猪养殖产业造成重创,导致生猪养殖的数量和规模锐减,经济损失严重,对我国畜牧养殖产业的科学发展以及我国经济的平稳运行均造成巨大威胁。目前非洲猪瘟还会导致我国生猪的出栏量显著下降,猪肉产品价格显著提高,通过分析了解现阶段非洲猪瘟导致的影响可加强应对非洲猪瘟的防控措施,改善目前生猪养殖产业发展的方向,恢复生猪养殖生产,保障我国猪肉市场的供应。该文对非洲猪瘟对我国生猪养殖产业的影响、应对措施及未来的展望进行论述。     

2019年中国猪肉市场回顾及未来走势

由于受非洲猪瘟疫情等因素的影响,2019年猪肉产能出现大幅下滑,生猪存栏和能繁母猪存栏连续10个月下降,猪肉供应减少,进口量激增;猪肉消费减少,白条鸡、鸡蛋等替代品消费增加;生猪、猪肉和仔猪价格明显上涨,猪肉稳价保供压力大。2020年,生猪产能将逐渐恢复,加上猪肉进口的扩大和储备肉的投放,猪肉供销将趋于稳定。     

Quantitative assessment of the likelihood of the introduction of classical swine fever virus into the Danish swine population

Classical swine fever virus (CSFV) is a major infectious-disease agent of livestock and causes production losses through increased morbidity and mortality, particularly of young pigs. We identified the pathways for introduction of CSFV into Denmark and assessed the annual probability of introduction (based on a US Department of Agriculture model). We developed pathways based on material from scientific articles, reports from veterinary agencies and custom officers, and consultations with experts in the field. Returning livestock trucks and legal meat imports were the most important pathways for CSFV introduction to Denmark from other EU states with predicted overall likelihood of one or more introductions of CSFV within a median of 130 years (46-280) provided mitigating steps, such as cleaning trucks, were maintained to a very high standard. The likelihood would increase dramatically if these activities were abandoned: one or more introductions within a median of 5.2 years (2-14). The predicted risks from live-animal imports and semen were extremely low given the very few imports of these products. The most important countries for Denmark's CSFV risk are Germany and the Netherlands, though this risk is again predicted to be dramatically reduced as long as mitigating activities are maintained. We predicted the risk from illegal movements of pork into Denmark to be low because little pork enters through this route and only a small fraction of this pork would be fed to pigs.     

非洲猪瘟背景下生猪产业链价格波动及传导研究——以河北省为例

非洲猪瘟疫情的暴发对我国生猪产业,尤其是生猪产业链价格产生巨大影响。为研究非洲猪瘟背景下河北省生猪产业链价格波动及传导机制,文章选取河北省2018年8月至2020年6月周度平均仔猪价格、生猪价格和猪肉价格作为生猪产业链价格代表,通过构建协整和误差修正模型、格兰杰因果检验方法分析非洲猪瘟对生猪产业链内部价格传导过程的影响。研究结果表明：非洲猪瘟背景下河北省生猪产业链价格存在长期均衡关系,但其上下游价格传导受阻,而屠宰场和销售市场的垂直整合度增强;生猪产业链中存在一定的反向误差修正机制;生猪产业链上、中游对下游价格的影响更为明显,并据此提出非洲猪瘟背景下河北省调控生猪产业链价格的政策建议。     

政策措施落实显效,生猪生产趋稳向好——2019年生猪市场回顾与未来走势展望

2019年是真正的金猪年。由于非洲猪瘟疫情影响,生猪产能持续下降,导致生猪价格年内一度创下出栏均价40元/kg以上的罕见高位,并维持较长时间,行业盈利达到历史最好最高水平。目前,年关将至,已进入猪肉的传统消费旺季,加之“灌香肠、制腊肉”相继启动,元旦、春节来临,或将再度推动全国猪价阶段性上行。而随着一系列稳定生猪生产的扶持政策落实显效,目前全国生猪生产呈现整体趋稳向好态势。预计,2020年猪价仍将在高位区间波动运行,后市或将逐渐震荡回调。     

规模化猪场非洲猪瘟防控要点

在我国群众食用的各种肉类中,猪肉占据绝对优势。在肉类消费中,很长时间以来猪肉消费皆处于较大占比。非洲猪瘟于2018年8月进入我国,极大程度干扰到国内生猪养殖,猪肉价格一路上涨,一度接近牛肉。受到猪肉售价提高的影响,其他肉类与菜类的售价皆随之提高,也造成了较大的社会影响。在我国,生猪养殖模式上,大多数为集约化养殖,非洲猪瘟的流行在极大程度上威胁到生猪养殖业,导致巨大经济损失。如何防控非洲猪瘟,避免造成较大的损失,文章将从病原来源、发展现状及如何防治等方面进行分析,进而在理论层面上给予防控非洲猪瘟工作以指导,拱筑防控非洲猪瘟城墙。     

Potential revenue impact of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the United States

OBJECTIVE: To estimate potential revenue impacts of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the United States similar to the outbreak in the United Kingdom during 2001. DESIGN: Economic analysis successively incorporating quarantine and slaughter of animals, an export ban, and consumer fears about the disease were used to determine the combined impact. SAMPLE POPULATION: Secondary data for cattle, swine, lambs, poultry, and products of these animals. PROCEDURE: Data for 1999 were used to calibrate a model for the US agricultural sector. Removal of animals, similar to that observed in the United Kingdom, was introduced, along with a ban on exportation of livestock, red meat, and dairy products and a reduction and shift in consumption of red meat in the United States. RESULTS: The largest impacts on farm income of an FMD outbreak were from the loss of export markets and reductions in domestic demand arising from consumer fears, not from removal of infected animals. These elements could cause an estimated decrease of $14 billion (9.5%) in US farm income. Losses in gross revenue for each sector were estimated to be the following: live swine, -34%; pork, -24%; live cattle -17%; beef, -20%; milk, -16%; live lambs and sheep, -14%; lamb and sheep meat, -10%; forage, -15%; and soybean meal, -7%. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Procedures to contain an outbreak of FMD to specific regions and allow maintenance of FMD-free exports and efforts to educate consumers about health risks are critical to mitigating adverse economic impacts of an FMD outbreak.     

非洲猪瘟形势下我国养猪业该何去何从

非洲猪瘟是由非洲猪瘟病毒感染家猪或野猪后引发的一种恶性传染病,该疫病在中国的暴发给整个养猪业造成了毁灭性的打击。然而,目前虽有报道称已经有科研单位研制出非洲猪瘟疫苗,但距离其实际应用于生产仍需要相当长的时间。中国是全球最大的猪肉生产和消费国,非洲猪瘟疫情在我国的快速传播使我国生猪产能遭受重创,直接导致猪肉供求失衡、猪肉价格翻番、猪肉市场异动。因此,文章从非洲猪瘟的传播方式、对非洲猪瘟相对有效的防控措施等方面探讨在非洲猪瘟形势下我国养猪业该如何维持产能、如何走好养殖之路。     

The association between submission counts to a veterinary diagnostic laboratory and the economic and disease challenges of the Ontario swine industry from 1998 to 2009

An intuitive assumption is to believe that the number of submissions made to a veterinary diagnostic laboratory is dictated by the financial state of the industries using the laboratory. However, no research is available to document how the economics of a food animal industry affects laboratory submissions and therefore disease monitoring and surveillance efforts. The objective of this study was to determine if economic indices associated with the Ontario swine industry can account for the variability seen in these submissions. Retrospective swine submissions made to the Animal Health Laboratory at the University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario from January 1998 to July 2009 were compiled. The following economic, demographic, and health variables impacting Ontario swine production were selected for analysis: auction price, lean-hog futures, currency exchange rate, price of corn, an outbreak of porcine circovirus type-2 associated diseases (PCVAD), government incentive program, number of farms in province, and average farm size. All independent variables identified by unconditional associations to have a significance of P≤0.2 with the outcome of monthly submission count were included in a multivariable negative binomial model. A final model was identified by a backwards elimination procedure. A total of 30,432 swine submissions were recorded. The mean frequency of monthly submissions over 139months was 212.9 (SD=56.0). After controlling for farm size, the number of pigs in Ontario, higher submission counts were associated with a weaker CAD$ versus US$, higher auction prices, and a PCVAD outbreak (P<0.001). The results suggest that both economic volatility and disease outbreaks in the Ontario swine industry drive submissions to the laboratory. In conclusion, lab submissions are a useful source of animal health data for disease surveillance; however, surveillance activities should also monitor the economics of the industry.     

Trichinae certification in the United States pork industry

Control of Trichinella infection in U.S. pork has traditionally been accomplished by inspection of individual carcasses at slaughter or by post-slaughter processing to inactivate parasites. We propose that an alternative to individual carcass testing or processing can be used when pigs are raised in production systems where risk of exposure to Trichinella spiralis has been mitigated. Declines in prevalence of this parasite in U.S. domestic swine during the last 30 years, coupled with improvements in pork production systems, now allow Trichinella control to be shifted to the farm through implementation of specific pork production practices. Knowledge of risk factors for exposure of swine to T. spiralis was used to develop an objective audit of risk that can be applied to pork production sites. In a pilot study, 461 production site audits were performed by trained veterinary practitioners. The on-farm audit included aspects of farm management, bio-security, feed and feed storage, rodent control programs and general hygiene. Of the 461 production site audits, 450 audits (97.6%) indicated compliance with the required good production practices. These sites are eligible for certification under the U.S. Trichinae Certification Program and will be audited regularly to maintain that status. The described trichinae certification mechanism will establish a process for ensuring the Trichinella safety of swine, and ultimately food products derived from swine, at the production level.     

Swine production.

The US swine industry is large and growing. The quantity of pork desired by consumers of US pork is growing at the rate of 1.5%/y. New production systems and new technology have enabled production per sow to grow at a rate of 4% annually in recent years. Consequently, the number of sows in the United States is declining. Because productivity growth is outpacing demand growth, the deflated price of hogs and pork is declining. Hog production and prices continue to exhibit strong seasonal and cyclic patterns. Pork production is usually lowest in the summer and highest in the fall. Production and prices tend to follow 4-year patterns. The US swine industry continues to evolve toward fewer and larger producers who rely on contracts for both hog production and marketing. In 2000, over half of the hogs marketed were from approximately 156 firms marketing more than 50,000 head annually. These producers finished 60% of their production in contract facilities. Over 90% of their marketings were under contract or were owned by a packer. These producers expressed a high level of satisfaction with hog production. Both they and their contract growers were satisfied with production contracts. These large producers were satisfied with their marketing contracts and planned to continue them in the future. The hog industry has changed a great deal in the last decade. There is little reason to believe this rapid rate of change will not continue. This swine industry is highly competitive and profit driven. Profit margins are too small to allow producers the luxury of ignoring new technology and innovative production systems. Consequently, hog production will continue its rapid evolution from traditional agriculture to typical industry.     

探索实践“高铁”智能化楼房养猪模式，打造产业互联网料、养、宰、商一体化

2019年12月17日,我国自然资源部和农业农村部联合发布的《关于设施农用地管理有关问题的通知》中明确指出“养殖设施允许建设多层建筑”,这意味国家层面正式放开楼房养殖的限制。我国是猪肉生产和消费大国,每年要消费猪肉将近5 000万吨,近7亿头猪,占世界大半份额。非洲猪瘟给中国养猪业造成了巨大影响,直接导致生猪产能急剧下滑,复产任务艰巨。如何最大程度降低生物安全因素给生猪生产带来的不确定性和不稳定性,是实现养猪业持续健康发展的关键举措;同时土地资源的紧张、高效率养猪的要求都在迫使中国猪业探寻具有中国特色的楼房养殖模式,为城市化进程不断加快的中国,开辟出一条全新的生猪稳产保供道路。     

Effect of recombinant DNA-derived bovine alpha-1 interferon on transmissible gastroenteritis virus infection in swine

Recombinant DNA-derived bovine interferon alpha 1-1 (BoIFN) inhibited replication of both vesicular stomatitis virus and transmissible gastroenteritis virus in cultures of swine testicular cells. Newborn pigs were orally inoculated with BoIFN and subsequently had interferon in their gastric contents and serum; however, interferon was found only occasionally in intestinal washings. Incubation of BoIFN with gastric contents from a newborn suckling pig did not affect antiviral activity, whereas intestinal (small intestine) contents from the same animal inactivated BoIFN within 1 minute. Beginning at 6 hours of age, newborn, colostrum-deprived pigs were given 1 mg of BoIFN orally every 12 hours. These pigs were not protected against challenge exposure to virulent transmissible gastroenteritis virus at 48 hours of age; disease and mortality were similar for these pigs and for control pigs not given BoIFN prior to challenge exposure. The BoIFN did not impair growth rate of pigs and did not cause obvious disease or lesions.