气候变化对我国小麦产量的影响

本研究采用英国Hadley中心的区域气候情景PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Study),结合校正的CERES-Wheat 模型,对21世纪70年代（2070s）气候变化情景下我国小麦的产量变化进行了研究。结果表明,在PRECIS预测的2070s气候变化条件下,我国雨养小麦和灌溉小麦的平均单产较基准年（1961－1990平均值）约减少20%,其中雨养小麦的减产幅度略高于灌溉小麦,春小麦或春性较强的冬小麦减产明显,减产的区域主要集中在东北春麦区和西南冬麦区。     

Consequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land use and policy

This paper reviews the knowledge on effects of climate change on agricultural productivity in Europe and the consequences for policy and research. Warming is expected to lead to a northward expansion of suitable cropping areas and a reduction of the growing period of determinate crops (e.g. cereals), but an increase for indeterminate crops (e.g. root crops). Increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations will directly enhance plant productivity and also increase resource use efficiencies.

In northern areas climate change may produce positive effects on agriculture through introduction of new crop species and varieties, higher crop production and expansion of suitable areas for crop cultivation. Disadvantages may be an increase in the need for plant protection, the risk of nutrient leaching and the turnover of soil organic matter. In southern areas the disadvantages will predominate. The possible increase in water shortage and extreme weather events may cause lower harvestable yields, higher yield variability and a reduction in suitable areas for traditional crops. These effects may reinforce the current trends of intensification of agriculture in northern and western Europe and extensification in the Mediterranean and southeastern parts of Europe.

Policy will have to support the adaptation of European agriculture to climate change by encouraging the flexibility of land use, crop production, farming systems etc. In doing so, it is necessary to consider the multifunctional role of agriculture, and to strike a variable balance between economic, environmental and social functions in different European regions. Policy will also need to be concerned with agricultural strategies to mitigate climate change through a reduction in emissions of methane and nitrous oxide, an increase in carbon sequestration in agricultural soils and the growing of energy crops to substitute fossil energy use. The policies to support adaptation and mitigation to climate change will need to be linked closely to the development of agri-environmental schemes in the European Union Common Agricultural Policy.

Research will have further to deal with the effect on secondary factors of agricultural production, on the quality of crop and animal production, of changes in frequency of isolated and extreme weather events on agricultural production, and the interaction with the surrounding natural ecosystems. There is also a need to study combined effects of adaptation and mitigation strategies, and include assessments of the consequences on current efforts in agricultural policy to develop a sustainable agriculture that also preserves environmental and social values in the rural society.     

Global warming likely reduces crop yield and water availability of the dryland cropping systems in the U.S. Central Great Plains

We investigated the impact of GCM-projected climate change on dryland crop rotations of wheat-fallow and wheat-corn-fallow in the Central Great Plains (Akron in Colorado, USA) using the CERES 4.0 crop modules in RZWQM2. The climate change scenarios for CO₂, temperature, and precipitation were produced by 22 GCM projections for Colorado based on the A1B scenario. The climate change for years 2050 and 2075 was super-imposed on measured 30-year-baseline climate data (1989–2008). For all the cropping rotations and projection years, simulated yields of wheat and corn decreased significantly (P < 0.05) with increasing temperatures. The yield declines due to the elevated temperatures should be attributable to the shortening of crop maturity duration and concurrent decreases in soil water and evapotranspiration. The model was also projected to decrease crop yields for the combined climate change scenarios of CO₂, temperature, and precipitation in the dryland cropping rotations.     

气候变化对长江中下游稻区水稻产量的影响

选择长江中下游平原作为研究区域,按照政府间气候变化专业委员会(IPCC)排放情景特别报告(SRES)中的A2和B2方案,将基于区域气候模式PRECIS构建的气候变化情景文件与水稻生长模型ORYZA2000结合,模拟基准时段(1961—1990)气候(Baseline)和2021—2050时段A2、B2情景下的水稻产量,分析未来气候变化对长江中下游水稻产量的影响。构建两种影响评估方法,重点分析增温和大气CO2肥效作用对水稻产量的影响。结果表明,不考虑CO2肥效作用时,随着温度升高,水稻生育期缩短,产量下降。A2情景下水稻生育期平均缩短4.5d,产量减少15.2%;B2情景下平均缩短3.4d,产量减少15%。其中,减产达到20%以上的区域集中在安徽中南部、湖北东南部和湖南东部地区。当考虑CO2肥效作用后,A2情景下水稻平均产量减少5.1%,B2情景平均减少5.8%。减产区域缩小且幅度降低,江西和浙江部分地区则呈现一定程度增产,但增幅10%。大气CO2肥效作用一定程度上可提高水稻产量,使晚稻在增温的不利影响下仍呈现不同程度的增产态势,但对单季稻和早稻的增产贡献仍不足以抵消升温的负面影响。另外,大气CO2肥效作用可有利于提高未来气候变化下水稻的稳产性。     

Trade-off between wheat yield and drainage under current and climate change conditions in northeast Germany

In the temperate climate of northeast Germany, a trade-off exists between water use in agricultural crop production and groundwater recharge which is important for urban water supply, irrigation, forestry and peat protection. The APSIM-Nwheat model was used to analyze the impact of climate change scenarios on deep drainage (DD), the water loss below the maximum root zone as the main source of groundwater recharge, and wheat production for two main soil types. A linear and a nonlinear climate scenario were used in this study: The linear scenario for 2001–2050 was based on a simple linearly modified historical climate record from 1951 to 2000. The nonlinear scenario used the same 1951–2000 historical climate record but combined it nonlinearly with a Global Circulation Model climate scenario for 2001–2050. Simulation results showed different distributions of deep drainage and grain yield with the linear and nonlinear scenarios, but no difference in the 50-year averages. Hence, a linear manipulation of climate records can be as effective for climate change impact studies on deep drainage and grain yield as nonlinearly manipulated climate data, if long-term average changes are of main interest. The simulation results indicated that a trade-off between deep drainage and grain yields can be potentially controlled through N management. However, such control mechanism was more effective under current climate conditions than under future climate and on a better water-holding silt soil compared to a poorer water-holding loamy sand. It is suggested that areas with poor water-holding soils should be managed extensively for groundwater recharge harvesting while better water-holding soils should be used for high input grain production.     

Potential impacts on climate change on paddy rice yield in mountainous highland terrains

Crop models are suitable tools to assess the potential impacts of climate change on crop productivity. While the associated assessment reports have been focused on major rice production regions, there is little information on how climate change will impact the future rice crop production in mountainous highland regions. This study investigated effects of climate change on yield of paddy rice (Oryza sativa) in mountainous highland terrains of Korea using the CERES-Rice 4.0 crop model. The model was first calibrated and validated based on observed data and then applied to simulations for the future projections of rice yield in a typical mountainous terrain which borders North and South Korea, the Haean Basin in Kangwon Province, Republic of Korea. Rice yield in the highland terrain was projected to increase by 2050 and 2100 primarily due to elevated CO₂ concentration. This effect of CO₂ fertilization on yield (+10.9% in 2050 and +20.0% in 2100) was also responsible for increases in water-use efficiency and nitrogen-use efficiency. With management options, such as planting date shift and increasing nitrogen application, additional yield gains were predicted in response to the future climate in this area. We also found that improving genetic traits should be another option to get further yield increases. All in all, climate change in mountainous highland areas should positively influence on paddy rice productivity.     

气候变化对湖南主要农作物种植结构的影响

基于湖南省97个地面气象观测站1961－2008年逐日平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、降水量、日照时数等气象观测资料,选择最佳小网格推算模型推算出500m×500m的高空间分辨率的网格序列资料;基于双季稻、油菜、棉花、柑桔、油茶、烟草等主要农作物生长条件及相关区划研究成果,确立相应农作物种植适宜性气候区划指标;结合地理信息资料,运用GIS技术,开展主要农作物种植适宜性动态气候区划。结果表明：气候变化对湖南主要农作物种植结构均有一定的影响,对双季稻的影响主要表现为熟性搭配区的变化,对油菜、油茶、柑桔的影响主要是最适宜种植面积增大,对棉花、烟草的影响主要最适宜种植面积减少。针对气候变化对湖南主要农作物种植适宜性的影响及相应农作物种植适宜性的气候区划结果,提出应对建议为：充分利用滨湖平原、河谷平原和盆地气候资源,扩大复种指数,提高单位面积产量;充分利用山地气候资源,做大做强湖南油茶产业;充分利用区域气候资源,打造湖南柑桔品牌;充分利用小气候资源,发展湘西、湘南特色烟叶。     

气候变化对冀西北青贮玉米种植布局影响的预测

针对气候变化背景下冀西北地区青贮玉米生产布局及应对未来气候变化政策调整的需要,利用ArcGIS 9.3技术最大熵模型研究青贮玉米种植区分布的气候适宜性。结果表明:目前冀西北地区青贮玉米种植区从北到东南总体呈现“最适宜区-适宜区-次适宜区-不适宜区”的分布格局。其中最适宜区面积占28.16%,建议种植中早熟品种;适宜区面积占57.72%,适宜种植中晚熟品种;次适宜区面积占9.65%,不适宜区占4.46%,建议对次适宜区和不适宜区的种植模式进行调整并减少种植面积。2030s、2050s气候情景数据预测表明:1986-2050年≥10℃积温与年平均温度持续上升,降水量呈现先上升（2030s）后下降（2050s）的趋势,2030s、2050s气候影响冀西北地区青贮玉米潜在种植区域明显,表现为青贮玉米适宜区随着未来气候变化逐渐减小,不适宜区呈现从南向北扩展的趋势。     

气候变化对福建省水稻生产的阶段性影响

摘要：将福建省划分为三个水稻种植区,选取19个样点,采用近5年（2000-2004年）中逢单年份的产量进行CERES-Rice模型参数的调试,逢双年份的产量用于检验模型在研究区域的适用性;利用GISS GCM Transient Run 的输出值生成了每个样点2030及2050年的气候变化情景;在各情景文件下运行CERES-Rice模型,并将模拟结果与当前气候情景(BASE情景)下的模拟值进行比较,再结合蒸散比（β）、产量波动系数(F)等指标,定量评价了未来气候渐变过程对福建省水稻生产的影响;在此基础上提出了适应气候渐变的若干可能对策。研究结果表明：在未来气候变化过程中,（1）研究区域水稻生长季的土壤水分条件将变得不如目前湿润;（2）研究区域早稻及单季稻生育期都将不同程度的缩短,后季稻2050情景下有所延长;（3）闽东南及闽西北双季稻区产量在未来两种气候情景下均表现为减产,且减产幅度随温度升高而加大。闽西北山地气候的单季稻区表现为增产;（4）当前闽东南水稻的稳产性最差,闽西北双季稻区的稳产性较好。未来气候变化中水稻稳产性将变差;（5）未来两种气候情景下福建省水稻总产将随着温度的升高而减少。     

气候变化对中国粮食生产的影响

气候变化对中国粮食生产的影响已得到高度关注,并形成了诸多研究成果,但影响的评估结果存在一定的争议。笔者对21世纪以来百篇国内外相关高质量文献进行整合梳理,总结讨论了气候变化对中国粮食生产的影响。研究表明：（1）1961年以来气候变化主要通过影响作物生长发育、引起种植结构改变、导致农业病虫害和气象灾害加剧的方式影响了中国的粮食生产,影响结果正负共存,总体上呈负效应,且气温升高的负效应最为显著。（2）气候变化对粮食生产的影响存在地域差异,在东北、西北绿洲等高纬度地区,气温升高改善了区域热量条件,粮食产量有增加趋势;在华北平原、南方稻区、西南地区和西北旱作区,气温升高缩短了作物生育期,加上降水变化,导致区域的粮食产量下降。（3）不考虑CO₂肥效作用,未来气候变化很可能造成粮食产量下降,且小麦的减产幅度可能高于水稻和玉米;考虑CO₂肥效作用,负面影响将会减弱,并可能对东北地区的水稻和华北平原的小麦产生正面影响。     

气候变化对中国主要作物生育期的影响研究进展

作物生育进程受环境直接影响,其中气候条件是主要的影响因子之一。本文基于中国粮食主产区分布,阐述了历史气候变化对小麦、玉米和水稻生育期的影响。结果表明,气候变化使北方冬麦区小麦播期推迟,传统品种生育期缩短;西北区冬麦越冬死亡率降低,水分利用率提高,但全生育期缩短。东北区春玉米适宜播期提前,近50年来潜在适宜生长期延长10天左右,晚熟玉米面积增加;华北区小麦-玉米一年两熟适宜生育期延长,推动了小麦—玉米“两晚技术”发展;西北区玉米整体播期提前,灌区玉米全生育期延长,旱区生育期缩短。长江中下游稻区水稻生育期普遍提前,除东北区水稻生育期延长约3天/10年,其他地区水稻全生育期基本呈缩短趋势。总体而言,气候变暖使生产中作物春季适宜播期提前,秋季适宜播期推迟,生产中传统作物品种生育期普遍缩短。通过品种选择和播期调整,可以充分发挥热量资源潜力,规避关键生育期灾害风险,并通过延长作物生长期提高产量。     

冬小麦垄作交替隔沟灌溉的研究现状与展望

垄作在作物基部培土,能促进根系生长,提高抗倒伏能力。垄作交替隔沟灌溉栽培技术因具有提高水肥利用效率,增加光能截获量,抑制病害危害等优势被广泛运用于水稻、玉米、大豆、棉花等农作物生产过程中。在综述了大量理论的基础上,筛选出冬小麦合理的高产节水垄作灌溉模式,探讨垄作冬小麦交替沟灌的增产调优节水效应及其机理,研究在其与玉米连作的农田周年耗水特性及其节水机制等未来探索方向,并对其今后的研究进行展望。垄作的目标是实现适宜作物生长的土壤条件,高效节水,提高作物产量。小麦垄作措施是一种结合秸秆免耕和传统耕作方式的可持续性的栽培技术。研究出适合河南省北部地区两年三作的长期农业地区的小麦-玉米垄作栽培技术。     

气候变化对三门峡苹果生长的影响分析

为了研究气候变化对三门峡苹果生长的影响程度,利用三门峡苹果种植基地气象资料和物候资料,采用气候倾向法、对比法,分析了气温、降水变化趋势和主要气象灾害对苹果生长的影响;根据三门峡苹果种植环境对产区进行分区,结合气候区划方法,评价出各区气候适宜性评分。结果表明：近40年来苹果种植区气温呈总体上升趋势,气候变暖影响苹果花期提前,降水呈下降趋势;近3年来各区的气候适宜性差异明显,中山区和部分浅山区为苹果种植优质区,其他区分别为适宜区和次适宜区。气象灾害对苹果生长的影响表明：高温热害对塬区苹果品质影响明显;低温霜冻、冰雹对中山区苹果生长影响突出;降水减少造成干旱灾害发生频率增大。三门峡苹果各产区的气候适宜性差异明显,气象灾害影响不同,未来种植规模扩展存在较大空间。     

基于DTOPSIS法的塔里木河流域棉花种植适宜性区划研究

为合理利用农业气候资源及棉花生产布局提供了科学依据,综合评价了塔里木河流域各县市的棉花种植适宜性,将结果进行分析对比,结合新疆棉花种植的实际情况做出了合理的区划。利用塔里木河流域23个气象站点1993—2012年气候资料,采用DTOPSIS法对塔里木河流域的棉花种植气候资源适宜性进行综合评价,在此基础上结合各县市水资源潜力指数,对塔里木河流域棉花种植适宜性进行区划研究。塔里木河流域棉花种植最适宜区为塔里木河干流区,适宜区大多位于塔里木河中游区及支流地区,次适宜区主要位于下游区及边缘地区,塔里木河流域的较高海拔山区为棉花种植不适宜区。除个别县市外,棉花各生育区内的平均温度和光照时数各县市间相差不大。因此灌溉条件是影响各县市的棉花种植适宜性的主要关键因子。     

Key weather extremes affecting potato production in The Netherlands

The possible impact of climate change on frequency and severity of weather extremes is hotly debated among climate scientists. Weather extremes can have a significant impact on agricultural production, but their effect is often unclear; this due to interaction with other factors that affect yield and due to lack of precise definitions of relevant weather extremes. We show that an empirical analysis of historical yields can help to identifying such rare, high impact climate events. A reconstructed time series of ware potato production in Flevoland (The Netherlands) over the last 60 years (1951-2010) enabled us to identify the two main yield affecting weather extremes. In around 10% of the years yield anomalies were larger than −20%. We found that these anomalies could be explained from two weather extremes (and no other), namely a wet start of the growing season and wet end of the growing season. We derived quantitative, meteorological definitions of these extremes. Climate change scenarios for 2050 show either no change or increased frequency of the two extremes. We demonstrate there is large uncertainty about past and future frequencies of the extremes, caused by a lack of sufficiently long historical weather records and uncertainties in climate change projections on precipitation. The approach to identify weather extremes presented here is generally applicable and shows the importance of long term crop and weather observations for investigating key climatic risks to production.     

阴雨寡照灾害对云南烤烟的种植风险预测

阴雨寡照灾害在未来将具有"空间+时间动态性"的变化特征.笔者根据烤烟种植适宜性指标和阴雨寡照等级指标,利用1981-2010年连续30年的逐日气象观测资料和2021-2050年全球气候模式HadGEM2-ES的RCPs排放情景预估结果,结合灾害系统理论,采用多元回归、"距平逼近"插值和栅格运算等方法,分析阴雨寡照灾害对...     

潍坊市未来气候变化及其对小麦生育期和产量的影响研究

为研究潍坊市未来气候变化趋势,分析其对当地小麦生产的影响,利用区域气候模式PRECIS对2021—2050年潍坊市气温及降水量进行模拟,并将气象数据输入作物模型,对未来气候变化下小麦的生长状况进行模拟。结果表明,未来潍坊市将会出现气温升高、降水增多的趋势;气候变暖会导致潍坊市小麦生育期提前,产量降低;若考虑CO₂的肥效作用,小麦会增产。     

辽西地区玉米生长速率及产量对光热条件变化的响应

为了保障粮食生产安全合理安排农业生产,探讨辽宁西部地区玉米生产中的农业气象问题,通过玉米分期播种试验,运用数理统计和气候诊断分析方法,分析气候变化对玉米出苗速度、营养生长、生殖生长发育速度和产量的影响。结果表明：气候变化对玉米生长发育和产量的影响十分显著,在水分基本满足的条件下,气候变暖气温升高、积温增加,玉米播种至出苗阶段生长速度加快,出苗至抽雄、抽雄至成熟阶段生长速度减慢,日照时间增加可延长玉米生育期。≥10℃积温每增加（减少）100℃·d,产量每公顷增产（减产）约455 kg。在气候变暖环境下,延长生育期可提高单产,应考虑引用偏晚熟玉米品种,增加喜温作物比例。辽西地区最佳播种期在4月20—30日之间。研究成果可为农业结构调整、提高玉米产量提供依据。     

湖南农业气候资源对全球气候变化的响应分析

为了揭示全球气候变化背景下湖南农业气候资源的变化特征,利用湖南省97个台站1960-2010年逐日气象观测资料,在进行均一性检验和订正的基础上,分析湖南省农业气候资源时间、空间变化趋势及其差异。结果表明：湖南气温与全球气温变化趋势一致,呈现以变暖为主要特征的气候变化,相对应的热量资源也呈现为显著增多的变化趋势,以活动积温对气候变暖响应最敏感;湖南降水量无显著趋势变化,但在不同季节、不同地区的变化趋势差异较大,冬季湘北地区呈显著增多趋势,春季湘西地区呈显著减少趋势,夏季湘中地区呈显著增多趋势,秋季湘西南地区呈显著减少趋势;日照时数呈现以夏季显著减少为主要特征的变化趋势,减少幅度最大的地区位于湘江中下游地区。气候变化导致湖南省农业气候资源发生变化,进而影响到农业生产布局和结构,需合理利用气候资源,提高农业适应气候变化的能力。     

重庆地区不同气候年型下玉米耕地适宜等级与对策研究

为了规划未来重庆市在不同气候年型下玉米的合理种植与耕地资源的可持续利用,以重庆市旱地耕地为评价对象,以100 m×100 m栅格为评价单元,根据玉米种植生长的立地要求,建立不同气候年型下由地形、水热和土壤条件等组成的5个评价因子体系,借助GIS与加权指数和、多指标决策模型评价重庆市玉米适宜用地数量、质量及分布。结果表明：重庆市3种气候年型下玉米用地的适宜性情况总体良好,高度适宜区和中等适宜区面积比重占70%以上,基本可以代表研究区的适宜性水平。气候正常年份玉米用地高度适宜等级面积最大,偏干旱年份最小,偏湿润年份居中;不适宜等级面积偏干旱年份最大,正常年份居中,偏湿润年份最小。根据不同气候年型玉米用地的适宜性等级,针对重庆市玉米用地现状及存在的问题,提出了玉米用地可持续利用的建议。