Some determinants of the spatio-temporal fire cycle in a mediterranean landscape (Corsica,France)

Based on recent needs to accurately understand fire regimes and post-fire vegetation resilience at a supra-level for carbon cycle studies, this article focusses on the coupled history of fire and vegetation pattern for 40 years on a fire-prone area in central Corsica (France). This area has been submitted since the beginning of the 20^th century to land abandonment and the remaining land management has been largely controlled by frequent fires. Our objectives were to rebuild vegetation and fire maps in order to determine the factors which have driven the spatial and temporal distribution of fires on the area, what were the feed backs on the vegetation dynamics, and the long-term consequences of this inter-relationship. The results show a stable but high frequency of small fires, coupled with forest expansion over the study period. The results particularly illustrate the spatial distribution of fires according to topography and vegetation, leading to a strong contrast between areas never burnt and areas which have been burnt up to 7 times. Fires, when occuring, affect on average 9 to 12% of the S, SE and SW facing slopes (compared to only 2 to 5% for the N facing slopes), spread recurrently over ridge tops, affect all the vegetation types but reburn preferentially shrublands and grasslands. As these fire-proning parameters have also been shown to decrease the regeneration capacity of forests, this study highlights the needs in spatial studies (both in terms of fire spread and vegetation dynamic) to accurately apprehend vegetation dynamic and functionning in fire-prone areas.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Historical patterns of fire severity and forest structure and composition in a landscape structured by frequent large fires: Pumice Plateau ecoregion,Oregon, USA

Context

Lack of quantitative observations of extent, frequency, and severity of large historical fires constrains awareness of departure of contemporary conditions from those that demonstrated resistance and resilience to frequent fire and recurring drought.

Objectives

Compare historical and contemporary fire and forest conditions for a dry forest landscape with few barriers to fire spread.

Methods

Quantify differences in (1) historical (1700–1918) and contemporary (1985–2015) fire extent, fire rotation, and stand-replacing fire and (2) historical (1914–1924) and contemporary (2012) forest structure and composition. Data include 85,750-ha tree-ring reconstruction of fire frequency and extent; >?375,000-ha timber inventory following >?78,900-ha fires in 1918; and remotely-sensed maps of contemporary fire effects and forest conditions.

Results

Historically, fires?>?20,000 ha occurred every 9.5 years; fire rotation was 14.9 years; seven fires?>?40,469 ha occurred during extreme drought (PDSI <?? 4.0); and stand-replacing fire occurred primarily in lodgepole (Pinus contorta var. murrayana). In contemporary fires, only 5% of the ecoregion burned in 30 years, and stand-replacing fire occurred primarily in ponderosa (Pinus ponderosa) and mixed-conifer. Historically, density of conifers?>?15 cm dbh exceeded 120 trees/ha on?<?5% of the area compared to 95% currently.

Conclusions

Frequent, large, low-severity fires historically maintained open-canopy ponderosa and mixed-conifer forests in which large fire- and drought-tolerant trees were prevalent. Stand-replacing patches in ponderosa and mixed-conifer were rare, even in fires >?40,469 ha (minimum size of contemporary “megafires”) during extreme drought. In this frequent-fire landscape, mixed-severity fire historically influenced lodgepole and adjacent forests. Lack of large, frequent, low-severity fires degrades contemporary forest ecosystems.

     

Effects of weather, fuel and terrain on fire severity in topographically diverse landscapes of south-eastern Australia

The effects of weather, terrain, fuels on fire severity were compared using remote sensing of the severity of two large fires in south-eastern Australian forests. The probability of contrasting levels of fire severity (fire confined to the understorey vs. tree canopies consumed) was analysed using logistic regression. These severities equate to extremes of fire intensity (<1,500 vs. >10,000 kW m^?1), consequent suppression potential (high vs. nil) and potential adverse ecological impacts on vertebrate fauna and soils (low vs. high). Weather was the major influence on fire severity. Crown fire was absent under non-extreme weather and but more likely under extreme weather, particularly on ridges in vegetation unburnt for >10 years. Crown fire probability was very low in recently burnt vegetation (1–5 years) and increased at higher fuel ages. In all cases, fire severity was lower in valleys, probably due to effects of wind protection and higher fuel moisture in moderating fire behaviour. Under non-extreme weather, fires are likely to be suppressible and burn heterogeneously, due to the influence of topographic position, slope and fuel load. Under extreme weather, fires are influenced only by fuel and topographic position, and probability of suppression on accessible ridges will be low except in recently burnt (i.e. 1–5 year old) fuels. Topographically imposed variation may mitigate adverse ecological effects on arboreal fauna and soil erosion potential.     

Interactions among fire legacies, grazing and topography predict shrub encroachment in post-agricultural páramo

Woody encroachment in grasslands is a global phenomenon driven by complex interactions between climate, grazing and fire management. Alpine shrub encroachment is of particular concern for biological conservation because high-elevation grasslands harbor high levels of biodiversity and species endemism. Páramo grasslands of the high Andes are exceptionally high in floral diversity, but traditional agricultural practices have resulted in widespread livestock grazing and anthropogenic burning. Fire suppression has frequently been identified a driver of woody expansion in other grasslands, and conservation initiatives that aim to decrease burning and grazing in páramos may inadvertently lead to shrub encroachment. We tested whether interactions among fire and grazing legacies, topography and edaphic conditions predicted the patchy distribution of encroaching shrubs in an Ecuadorian páramo 10 years after release from burning and grazing. Interviews with land-users identified proximity to roads, footpaths and riparian areas as proxies for fire frequency and grazing pressure. A recursive partitioning model of shrub cover revealed that woody abundance was generally lower at lower elevations, especially near the access road (where fire frequency and grazing pressure were high). Within the low-elevation areas, shrub cover was highest near streams (where grazing pressure was high). These results suggest that (1) the effects of fire and grazing legacies depend on the spatial patterns of grazing, and (2) legacy effects interact with topography to help explain patchy shrub encroachment.     

Mapping the probability of large fire occurrence in northern Arizona, USA

In the southwestern U.S., wildland fire frequency and area burned have steadily increased in recent decades, a pattern attributable to multiple ignition sources. To examine contributing landscape factors and patterns related to the occurrence of large (⩾20 ha in extent) fires in the forested region of northern Arizona, we assembled a database of lightning- and human-caused fires for the period 1 April to 30 September, 1986–2000. At the landscape scale, we used a weights-of-evidence approach to model and map the probability of occurrence based on all fire types (n = 203), and lightning-caused fires alone (n = 136). In total, large fires burned 101,571 ha on our study area. Fires due to lightning were more frequent and extensive than those caused by humans, although human-caused fires burned large areas during the period of our analysis. For all fires, probability of occurrence was greatest in areas of high topographic roughness and lower road density. Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa)-dominated forest vegetation and mean annual precipitation were less important predictors. Our modeling results indicate that seasonal large fire events are a consequence of non-random patterns of occurrence, and that patterns generated by these events may affect the regional fire regime more extensively than previously thought. Identifying the factors that influence large fires will improve our ability to target resource protection efforts and manage fire risk at the landscape scale.     

Characterising landscape connectivity for conservation planning using a dispersal guild approach

Context

Land use changes have modified the extent and structure of native vegetation, resulting in fragmentation of native species habitat. Connectivity is increasingly seen as a requirement for effective conservation in these landscapes, but the question remains: ‘connectivity for which species?’.

Objective

The aim of this study was to develop and then apply a rapid, expert-based, dispersal guild approach where species are grouped on similar fine-scale dispersal behaviour (such as between scattered trees) and habitat characteristics.

Methods

Dispersal guilds were identified using clustering techniques to compare dispersal and habitat parameters elicited from experts. We modelled least-cost paths and corridors between patches and individual movement probabilities within these corridors for each of the dispersal guilds using Circuitscape. We demonstrate our approach with a case study in the Tasmanian Northern Midlands, Australia.

Results

The dispersal guild approach grouped the 12 species into five dispersal guilds. The connectivity modelling of those five guilds found that broadly dispersing species in this landscape, such as medium-sized carnivorous mammals, were unaffected by fragmentation while from the perspective of the three dispersal guilds made up of smaller mammals, the landscape appeared highly fragmented.

Conclusions

Our approach yields biologically defensible outputs that are broadly applicable, particularly for conservation planning where data and resources are limited. It is a useful first step in multi-species conservation planning which aims to identify those species most in need of conservation efforts.

     

Landscape dynamics in crown fire ecosystems

Crown fires create broad-scale patterns in vegetation by producing a patch mosaic of stand age classes, but the spread and behavior of crown fires also may be constrained by spatial patterns in terrain and fuels across the landscape. In this review, we address the implications of landscape heterogeneity for crown fire behavior and the ecological effects of crown fires over large areas. We suggest that fine-scale mechanisms of fire spread can be extrapolated to make broad-scale predictions of landscape pattern by coupling the knowledge obtained from mechanistic and empirical fire behavior models with spatially-explicit probabilistic models of fire spread. Climatic conditions exert a dominant control over crown fire behavior and spread, but topographic and physiographic features in the landscape and the spatial arrangement and types of fuels have a strong influence on fire spread, especially when burning conditions (e.g., fuel moisture and wind) are not extreme. General trends in crown fire regimes and stand age class distributions can be observed across continental, latitudinal, and elevational gradients. Crown fires are more frequent in regions having more frequent and/or severe droughts, and younger stands tend to dominate these landscapes. Landscapes dominated by crown fires appear to be nonequilibrium systems. This nonequilibrium condition presents a significant challenge to land managers, particularly when the implications of potential changes in the global climate are considered. Potential changes in the global climate may alter not only the frequency of crown fires but also their severity. Crown fires rarely consume the entire forest, and the spatial heterogeneity of burn severity patterns creates a wide range of local effects and is likely to influence plant reestablishment as well as many other ecological processes. Increased knowledge of ecological processes at regional scales and the effects of landscape pattern on fire dynamics should provide insight into our understanding of the behavior and consequences of crown fires.     

Land Cover Type and Fire in Portugal: Do Fires Burn Land Cover Selectively?

The purpose of this study is to investigate if, or under what conditions, fires select given land cover types for burning. If fires burn unselectively then the land cover composition (the proportional area of various land cover types) of individual fires should approximate the land cover composition available in their neighborhood. In this study we test this hypothesis by performing statistical analyses of a data set consisting of paired vectors with the proportions of land cover types present in burned areas and in their respective surroundings. The statistical methods employed (a permutation technique and the C_max statistic) are commonly used in resource selection studies where data is subject to a unit-sum constraint. The results of the analysis of 506 fires that burned in Portugal in 1991 indicate that fires are selective, with small fires exhibiting stronger land cover preferences than large fires. According to the results of a multiple comparison analysis performed for small fires, there is a marked preference for shrubland followed by other forest cover types, while agriculture is clearly avoided. A similar analysis is performed to test if fire selectivity is related to the ecological region where it occurs. The results obtained in this study contribute to the discussion on the relative importance of fuels as a drivers of fire spread.     

From pattern to process: estimating expansion rates of a forest tree species in a protected palm savanna

We assessed the possible influences of dominant tree density (Butia yatay palm trees) and fire on the expansion of a riparian tree population (Myrcianthes cisplatensis) over El Palmar National Park, a protected savanna in Argentina. Our approach is based on Skellam’s model of population expansion, which predicts that populations with density-independent reproduction and random dispersal will exhibit Gaussian-shaped expansion fronts. Using Poisson regression, we fitted Gaussian curves to Myrcianthes density data collected at varying distances from a riparian forest, within four environmental conditions resulting from combinations of palm density (dense and sparse) and fire history (burned and unburned). Based on the estimated parameters, we derived statistics appropriate to compare attained expansion velocity, mean squared effective dispersal distance, and density-independent population growth among environmental conditions. We also analyzed the effects of palm density, fire history, and distance from the riparian forest on local maximum size of Myrcianthes individuals. Gaussian curves fitted the data reasonably well and slightly better than two alternative front models. Palm density and fire history interacted to control Myrcianthes spread, making unburned dense palm savannas the preferential avenue for Myrcianthes population expansion across the landscape. Limitation of Myrcianthes expansion by fire appeared to result from low survival of small individuals to fire, whereas facilitation of Myrcianthes expansion by palm trees may have resulted from increased population growth. Our results stress the interactive role of fire regime and local biotic influences in determining propagule pressure and tree establishment at the forefront, and the overall vulnerability of savannas to colonization by forest species.     

Escaping the flames: large termitaria as refugia from fire in miombo woodland

At finer scales, spatial heterogeneity can influence fire intensity and severity. To test whether Macrotermes termite mounds act as fire refugia for woody plants, we assessed effects of fire on individual plants, woody plant structure and composition in a miombo woodland in Zimbabwe, where elephants have decreased tree cover, leading to increased grass cover, fuelling greater intensity fires. We compared exposure to fire on 47 paired mound-matrix plots at three sites. Mound-based woody plants were less exposed to fire than those in matrix positions. Woody species composition differed between mound and matrix, and there were more tall trees on mounds. We assessed grass cover, elephant damage, fire damage and resprouting response for all woody plants found on 10 paired mound-matrix plots that had been equally exposed to severe late dry season fires. Grass cover was three times greater for matrix sites, where 85 % of woody species experienced heavy fire damage, compared to 29 % for mounds. Matrix species were nearly 31 times more likely than mound species to exhibit a vigorous resprouting response after fire damage, all else being equal. The distinct composition of termitaria vegetation has been attributed to edaphic factors. To this should be added the fire-retardant properties of mounds, allowing woody species that might otherwise have been excluded, to persist in a fire-prone system. Thus, spatial pattern created by termitaria is reinforced through exclusion of fire, allowing different species composition and structure. Since termitaria are important for productivity and biodiversity, the refuge effect is significant for the system.     

Normalized burn ratios link fire severity with patterns of avian occurrence

Context

Remotely sensed differenced normalized burn ratios (DNBR) provide an index of fire severity across the footprint of a fire. We asked whether this index was useful for explaining patterns of bird occurrence within fire adapted xeric pine-oak forests of the southern Appalachian Mountains.

Objectives

We evaluated the use of DNBR indices for linking ecosystem process with patterns of bird occurrence. We compared field-based and remotely sensed fire severity indices and used each to develop occupancy models for six bird species to identify patterns of bird occurrence following fire.

Methods

We identified and sampled 228 points within fires that recently burned within Great Smoky Mountains National Park. We performed avian point counts and field-assessed fire severity at each bird census point. We also used Landsat? imagery acquired before and after each fire to quantify fire severity using DNBR. We used non-parametric methods to quantify agreement between fire severity indices, and evaluated single season occupancy models incorporating fire severity summarized at different spatial scales.

Results

Agreement between field-derived and remotely sensed measures of fire severity was influenced by vegetation type. Although occurrence models using field-derived indices of fire severity outperformed those using DNBR, summarizing DNBR at multiple spatial scales provided additional insights into patterns of occurrence associated with different sized patches of high severity fire.

Conclusions

DNBR is useful for linking the effects of fire severity to patterns of bird occurrence, and informing how high severity fire shapes patterns of bird species occurrence on the landscape.

     

Spatial and temporal heterogeneity of agricultural fires in the central United States in relation to land cover and land use

Agricultural burning is an important land use practice in the central U.S. but has received little attention in the literature, whereas most of the focus has been on wildfires in forested areas. Given the effects that agricultural burning can have on biodiversity and emissions of greenhouse gasses, there is a need to quantify the spatial and temporal patterns of fire in agricultural landscapes of the central U.S. Three years (2006?C2008) of the MODIS 1?km daily active fire product generated from the MODIS Terra and Aqua satellite data were used. The 2007 Cropland Data Layer developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture was used to examine fire distribution by land cover/land use (LCLU) type. Global ordinary least square (OLS) models and local geographically weighted regression (GWR) analyses were used to explore spatial variability in relationships between fire detection density and LCLU classes. The monthly total number of fire detections peaked in April and the density of fire detections (number of fires/km²/3?years) was generally higher in areas dominated by agriculture than areas dominated by forest. Fire seasonality varied among areas dominated by different types of agriculture and land use. The effects of LCLU classes on fire detection density varied spatially, with grassland being the primary correlate of fire detection density in eastern Kansas; whereas wheat cropping was important in central Kansas, northeast North Dakota, and northwest Minnesota.     

Bottom-up control of a northern Arizona ponderosa pine forest fire regime in a fragmented landscape

Fire regimes often vary at fine spatial scales in response to factors such as topography or fuels while climate usually synchronizes fires across broader scales. We investigated the relative influence of top-down and bottom-up controls on fire occurrence in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests in a highly fragmented landscape at Mount Dellenbaugh, in northwestern Arizona. Our study area of 4,000?ha was characterized by patches of ponderosa pine forest in drainages that were separated by a matrix of pinyon?Cjuniper woodlands, sagebrush shrublands, and perennial grasslands. We reconstructed fire histories from 135 fire-scarred trees in sixteen 25-ha sample sites placed in patches of mature ponderosa forest. We found that, among patches of ponderosa forest, fires were similar in terms of frequency but highly asynchronous in terms of individual years. Climate synchronized fire but only across broader spatial scales. Fires occurring at broader scales were associated with dry years that were preceded by several wet years. The remarkable level of asynchrony at finer scales suggests that bottom-up factors, such as site productivity and fuel continuity, were important in regulating fire at Mount Dellenbaugh. Understanding where bottom-up controls were historically influential is important for prioritizing areas that may best respond to fuel treatment under a warming climate.     

Evidence of selective burning in Sardinia (Italy): which land-cover classes do wildfires prefer?

The objective of this paper is to identify land-cover types where fire incidence is higher (preferred) or lower (avoided) than expected from a random null model. Fire selectivity may be characterized by the number of fires expected in a given land-cover class and by the mean surface area each fire will burn. These two components of fire pattern are usually independent of each other. For instance, fire number is usually connected with socioeconomic causes whereas fire size is largely controlled by fuel continuity. Therefore, on the basis of available fire history data for Sardinia (Italy) for the period 2000–2004 we analyzed fire selectivity of given land-cover classes keeping both variables separate from each other. The results obtained from analysis of 13,377 fires show that for most land-cover classes fire behaves selectively, with marked preference (or avoidance) in terms of both fire number and fire size. Fire number is higher than expected by chance alone in urban and agricultural areas. In contrast, in forests, grasslands, and shrublands, fire number is lower than expected. In grasslands and shrublands mean fire size is significantly larger than expected from a random null model whereas in urban areas, permanent crops, and heterogeneous agricultural areas there is significant resistance to fire spread. Finally, as concerns mean fire size, in our study area forests and arable land burn in proportion to their availability without any significant tendency toward fire preference or avoidance. The results obtained in this study contribute to fire risk assessment on the landscape scale, indicating that risk of wildfire is closely related to land cover.     

Fire severity and seed source influence lodgepole pine (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus contorta</Emphasis> var. <Emphasis Type="Italic">murrayana</Emphasis>) regeneration in the southern cascades,Lassen volcanic National Park,California

Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine, (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) regenerates quickly after high severity fire because seeds from serotinous cones are released immediately post-fire. Sierra lodgepole pine (P. contorta var. murrayana) forests burn with variable intensity resulting in different levels of severity and because this variety of lodgepole pine does not have serotinous cones, little is known about what factors influence post-fire regeneration. This study quantifies tree regeneration in a low, moderate, and high severity burn patch in a Sierra lodgepole forest 24 years after fire. Regeneration was measured in ten plots in each severity type. In each plot, we quantified pre- and post-fire forest structure (basal area, density), counted and aged tree seedlings and saplings of all species, and measured distance to the nearest seed bearing tree. There was no difference in the density of seedlings and saplings among severity classes. Distance and direction to the nearest seed bearing lodgepole pine were the best predictors of lodgepole seedling and sapling density in high severity plots. In contrast to Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine, regeneration of Sierra lodgepole pine appears to rely on in-seeding from surviving trees in low or moderate severity burn patches or live trees next to high severity burn patches. Our data demonstrate that Sierra lodgepole pine follows stand development pathways hypothesized for non-serotinous stands of Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine.     

Recent fire history and connectivity patterns determine bird species distribution dynamics in landscapes dominated by land abandonment

Mediterranean landscapes are suffering two opposing forces leading to large-scale changes in species distribution: land abandonment of less productive areas and an increase in wildfire impact. Here, we test the hypothesis that fires occurred in recent decades drive the pattern of expansion of early-successional, open-habitat bird species by aiding in the process of colonisation of newly burnt areas. The study was carried out in Catalonia (NE Spain). We selected 44 burnt sites occurring between 2000 and 2005 to model colonisation patterns under different assumptions of potential colonisers’ sources and evaluated the colonisation estimates with empirical data on six bird species especially collected for this purpose. We first defined three landscape scenarios serving as surrogates of potential colonisers’ sources: open-habitats created by fire, shrublands and farmlands. Then, we used a parameter derived from a functional connectivity metric to estimate species colonization dynamics on the selected sites by each particular scenario. Finally, we evaluated our colonisation estimates with the species occurrence in the studied locations by using generalized linear mixed models. The occurrence of the focal species on the newly burnt sites was significantly related to the connectivity patterns described by both the recent fire history and the other open-habitat types generated by a different type of disturbance. We suggest that land use changes in recent decades have produced a shift in the relative importance of habitats acting as reservoirs for open-habitat bird species dynamics in Mediterranean areas. Before the middle of the twentieth century species’ reservoirs were probably constituted by relatively static open habitats (grassland and farmland), whereas afterwards they likely consist of a shifting mosaic of habitat patches where fire plays a key role as connectivity provider and largely contributes to the maintenance of species persistence.     

Long-term,landscape patterns of past fire events in a montane ponderosa pine forest of central Colorado

Parameters of fire regimes, including fire frequency, spatial extent of burned areas, fire severity, and season of fire occurrence, influence vegetation patterns over multiple scales. In this study, centuries-long patterns of fire events in a montane ponderosa pine – Douglas-fir forest landscape surrounding Cheesman Lake in central Colorado were reconstructed from fire-scarred trees and inferences from forest stand ages. We crossdated 153 fire-scarred trees from an approximately 4000 ha study area that recorded 77 total fire years from 1197 to the present. Spatial extent of burned areas during fire years varied from the scale of single trees or small clusters of trees to fires that burned across the entire landscape. Intervals between fire years varied from 1 to 29 years across the entire landscape to 3 to 58 years in one stand, to over 100 years in other stands. Large portions of the landscape did not record any fire for a 128 year-long period from 1723 to 1851. Fire severity varied from low-intensity surface fires to large-scale, stand-destroying fires, especially during the 1851 fire year but also possibly during other years. Fires occurred throughout tree growing seasons and both before and after growing seasons. These results suggest that the fire regime has varied considerably across the study area during the past several centuries. Since fires influence plant establishment and mortality on the landscape, these results further suggest that vegetation patterns changed at multiple scales during this period. The fire history from Cheesman Lake documents a greater range in fire behavior in ponderosa pine forests than generally has been found in previous studies.     

Fire-driven dynamic mosaics in the Great Victoria Desert,Australia – I. Fire geometry

The dominant ground cover in the Great Victoria Desert is porcupine grass or spinifex, a fire-prone perennial grass that grows in hummocks or tussocks. Lightning sets hundreds of wildfires annually in inland arid Australia, generating an ever changing spatial-temporal patchwork of habitats that differ in their state of post-fire recovery. The spatial configuration of this patchwork is determined by the size, shape, frequency and inter-spatial relationships of fires, and is likely to play a vital role in the maintenance of the desert biota. Chronosequences of satellite imagery spanning the years 1972–1991 are used to extract and describe the geometry of over 800 fires from fire scars. In the imagery study area, an average of 43 fires occur annually, fire size frequency distributions are roughly log-normal with mild right skew, with average area of 28 km², burning between 2 and 5% of the burnable landscape each year. Average fire return interval is estimated to be at least 20 years. These empirical findings are an important prerequisite for developing a more sophisticated understanding of the dynamics of the fire cycle in this ecosystem.     

Influence of fire regimes on lodgepole pine stand age and density across the Yellowstone National Park (USA) landscape

A probabilistic spatial model was created based on empirical data to examine the influence of different fire regimes on stand structure of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) forests across a >500,000-ha landscape in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, USA. We asked how variation in the frequency of large fire events affects (1) the mean and annual variability of age and tree density (defined by postfire sapling density and subsequent stand density) of lodgepole pine stands and (2) the spatial pattern of stand age and density across the landscape. The model incorporates spatial and temporal variation in fire and serotiny in predicting postfire sapling densities of lodgepole pine. Empirical self-thinning and in-filling curves alter initital postfire sapling densities over decades to centuries. In response to a six-fold increase in the probability of large fires (0.003 to 0.018 year⁻¹), mean stand age declined from 291 to 121 years. Mean stand density did not increase appreciably at high elevations (1,029 to 1,249 stems ha⁻¹) where serotiny was low and postfire sapling density was relatively low (1,252 to 2,203 stems ha⁻¹). At low elevations, where prefire serotiny and postfire lodgepole pine density are high, mean stand densities increased from 2,807 to 7,664 stems ha⁻¹. Spatially, the patterns of stand age became more simplified across the landscape, yet patterns of stand density became more complex. In response to more frequent stand replacing fires, very high annual variability in postfire sapling density is expected, with higher means and greater variation in stand density across lodgepole pine landscapes, especially in the few decades following large fires.     

Assessing Spatial Uncertainty Associated with Forest Fire Boundary Delineation

Uncertainty in managing forested landscapes arises from many sources, including complexities inherent in forest ecosystems and their disturbance processes. However, gaining knowledge about forested ecosystems at the landscape level is often impeded by limitations in collecting comprehensive, representative, as well as accurate data sets. Historical reference data sets about past disturbances are also mostly lacking. In the case of ground fires, however, records of past fires can be obtained by analyzing fire scars using dendrochronology. While the temporal series of disturbance can be determined, there is still uncertainty about the spatial limits of individual forest surface fires. Here, we investigate how a patch-based method (fuzzy set membership) and a boundary-based uncertainty method (boundary membership) can help determine the spatial uncertainty related to forest fire events and their boundary locations. We compare these methods using fire scar data from ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) sampled at 33 1-ha plots in a 1500-ha study area within the Stein River watershed (British Columbia). Patch-based fire maps, using multiple constraints, were derived for years 1785–1937. We compared the resulting total fire event maps with the boundary-based method, finding that depending on values chosen for the patch-based method, negative correlation was present (though very modest: r = − 0.1, p ≤ 0.05) between some maps. However, significant positive correlation between maps (though again modest: r = 0.22, p ≤ 0.05) was found under the least constrained patch-based methods, suggesting that fire patches are counted more than once in riparian zones. Our results suggest that these two methods provide complementary information about historical fire size and spatial limits. Quantifying spatial uncertainty about fire size and fire boundary location using a boundary membership method can contribute to not only understanding past fire regimes but also to providing better estimates of area burned.