Within-herd contact structure and transmission of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis in a persistently infected dairy cattle herd

Within-herd transmission of pathogens occurs either by direct or by indirect contact between susceptible and infected animals. In dairy herds that are structured into groups, the way in which animals encounter each other and share an environment can affect pathogen transmission. Dairy cattle are heterogeneous in terms of susceptibility and infectivity with respect to Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (Map) transmission. It is mainly young animals that are susceptible and adults that are infectious. Both vertical and horizontal transmission through the ingestion of Map shed into the environment by adults and transiently infected calves can occur. Our objective was to assess the effect of contact structure on Map transmission in persistently infected dairy herds and to examine the effect of isolating calves from other calves or from adults before weaning. We developed a stochastic compartmental model of Map transmission in a closed dairy herd. The model reflects the Map infection process and herd management characteristics. Indirect transmission via the environment was modelled explicitly. Six infection states (susceptible, resistant, transiently infectious, latently infected, subclinically infected, and clinically affected) and two contaminated farm area environments (whole farm and calf area) were modelled. Calves were housed in hutches, individual indoor pens, or group indoor pens. Two different levels of exposure of calves to a farm environment contaminated by adults were possible: no exposure and indirect exposure through fomites. Three herd sizes were studied. We found that contacts between calves before weaning did not influence Map transmission in a herd, whereas the level of exposure of calves to an environment contaminated by adults and the starting age of exposure of calves to adults were pivotal. Early culling of clinically affected adults led to a lower prevalence of infectious adults over time. The results were independent of herd size. Despite the many transmission routes that are known, the best control approach is to limit the exposure of calves to adult faeces through the systematic separation of adults and calves in combination with hygiene measures. Reducing contact between calves does not appear effective.     

Simulation study to assess the efficiency of a test-and-cull scheme to control the spread of the bovine viral-diarrhoea virus in a dairy herd

To control the spread of bovine viral-diarrhoea virus (BVDV), test-and-cull schemes have been used in Scandinavian countries, with success, when combined with strict control of new animal introductions into herds. In situations where BVDV reintroduction is likely to occur, it is necessary to assess precisely the expected efficiency of test-and-cull schemes. The objective of this study was to compare, by simulation, the persistence and consequences of BVDV infection in a fully susceptible dairy herd with either a test-and-cull scheme or no control action. We used a stochastic individual-based model representing the herd structure as groups of animals, herd dynamics, the contact structure within the herd and virus transmission. After an initial introduction of the virus into a fully susceptible herd, the frequency of purchases of animals that introduced the virus was simulated as high, intermediate or null. Virus persistence and epidemic size (total number of animals infected) were simulated over 10 years. The test-and-cull reduced the epidemic size and the number of days the virus was present except in herds with complete prevention of contact between groups of animals. Where no virus was reintroduced, virus persistence did not exceed 6 years with a test-and-cull scheme, whereas the virus was still present 10 years after the virus introduction in some replications with no control action (<2%). Where frequent purchases were made that led to virus introduction (6 within 10 years), with an intermediate virus transmission between groups, the probability of virus persistence 10 years after the first virus introduction fell from 31% to 8% with the test-and-cull scheme (compared to the do-nothing strategy). Within the newly infected herd, the test-and-cull scheme had no effect, on inspection, on the number of PI births, embryonic deaths or abortions over 10 years. Given this, the economic efficiency of the test-and-cull scheme should be further investigated.     

Control of foot-and-mouth disease through vaccination and the isolation of infected animals

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) within Saudi Arabian dairy herds has been controlled for the past decade through vaccination. Data from 19 outbreaks on Saudi farms has suggested that the durability of these vaccines extended for 2.5 months, providing an 81–98% level of protection. Vaccination has nevertheless failed to prevent the establishment and sometimes persistence of the disease. This is probably because the highly contagious nature of FMD creates increasing levels of viral excretion during an outbreak, and the co-habitation in Saudi farms of affected/susceptible animals following diagnosis, predisposes the herds to re-infection. Pre-clinical excretion of the virus leads to the infection of additional in-contact susceptible animals prior to diagnosis, so the isolation of clinically infected animals does not guarantee a removal of infection. Saudi Arabian farms are subdivided into managed farm pens and isolation (away from the farm) of all animals in infected pens not only removes the infectious individuals showing clinical signs, but also those that are sub-clinical and excreting virus. Simulations suggest that removing all infectious animals from the herd significantly reduces the per cent infected in the herd.     

Diagnosis of paratuberculosis in a dairy herd native to Brazil

Paratuberculosis (PTB) in Brazil has previously only been reported in imported animals and is officially considered as an exotic disease. A dairy herd, which had no imported animals, presented clinically suspect animals and was investigated for paratuberculosis using faecal culture, histopathology, indirect ELISA and the agar gel immunodiffusion test. Infection with Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map) was confirmed by culture of faeces from five cows with clinical symptoms of PTB and in 7/24 randomly selected asymptomatic cows from the same herd. Two cows with clinical symptoms were necropsied and their tissues were positive for Map by culture and histopathology. Twelve asymptomatic, randomly selected cows were positive on ELISA. The results confirmed the presence of PTB in this dairy herd and for the first time demonstrated the disease in a herd of native-bred cattle in Brazil.     

Evidence for transmission of bovine leukemia virus by rectal palpation in a commercial dairy herd

The risk of Bovine Leukemia Virus (BLV) transmission by rectal examination was determined over 22 months in a commercial dairy herd. All 167 BLV seronegative cattle, of breeding age or greater, were divided randomly into two groups and identified by neck-chain color. In the treatment group, routine rectal palpation occurred after a BLV infected animal and without a change of sleeve, while in the other group, palpation occurred in a similar manner with the exception that sleeves were changed between animals. When BLV seronegative cattle in either group were palpated after BLV infected cattle, the event and identification of the cattle involved were recorded. Serologic testing was performed eight times during the 22 month study to determine the number of animals that became infected following a palpation (an event). Thirty-one animals seroconverted during the study; 24 in the treatment (no sleeve change) group and seven in the sleeve change group. Sixteen of the animals in the treatment group that seroconverted had been palpated prior to their seroconversion. A hazard ratio (relative risk) for BLV seroconversion was determined between the two groups. Cows palpated with no sleeve change had a 2.8-fold increase in risk (confidence interval 1.1–6.8) of BLV infection. The increased risk of BLV infection associated with rectal palpation may have been affected by the presence of some highly infectious cows in the herd. This study confirms that rectal palpation without a change of sleeve may be a significant risk factor in some herds, and if efforts are made to decrease the spread of BLV in a herd, the potential for rectal sleeve transmission must be considered.     

Modelling of prevalence development in a paratuberculosis control program in a dairy herd

A modelling approach to calculate the success of a paratuberculosis control programme in dairy herds is presented. The essential parameters of the model are the prevalence at the beginning of the programme, diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of the tests used, discipline in culling test-positive animals, turnover in the herd, percentage of replacement with own stock and paratuberculosis prevalence in animals bought into the herd from outside, and a general hygiene-based factor. Diagnostic measures and time schedule used in the modelling approach are given by the paratuberculosis-control-programme of the local board for infectious disease control in food animals in the state of Lower Saxony. It was found by the model-calculations that in case of a high initial prevalence the anticipated six-year duration of the control programme is justified in order to ensure a lasting improvement of herd health. If hygienic measures are strictly obeyed and all test positive animals are culled a clear reduction on paratuberculosis prevalence can be achieved within the first year. According to the model in the second and third year the prevalence will increase again despite ongoing diagnostic measures in order to decrease again continuously with the beginning of the fourth year. Given an initial prevalence of 10%, 20% or 30% the prevalence after six years is calculated to be at 3%, 5% or 8% when all measures are followed as given in the control programme. The presented programme seems to be appropriate to predict prevalence development in paratuberculosis infected dairy herds if the herds are managed according to the guidelines of the "Tierseuchenkasse Niedersachsen", the local board for infectious disease control in food animals in the state of Lower Saxony, Germany. It becomes apparent that within six years a high decrease of the prevalence in the herds, but not a complete eradication of disease can be achieved by consistently complying with the rules given in these guidelines.     

A stochastic model simulating paratuberculosis in a dairy herd

Paratuberculosis (PTB) causes severe economic losses to farmers and the infection has very complex effects (many indirect) on the production of a dairy herd. These indirect effects have not or only briefly been described by earlier PTB-simulation models, and therefore they were included in a new model called PTB-Simherd. Our aim was to develop the basis for a decision-support tool which can predict herd-specific production-related effects from introduction of different control strategies against PTB. The PTB-Simherd is a dynamic, stochastic, and mechanistic Monte-Carlo model simulating a dairy herd including young stock. Paratuberculosis and relevant control strategies against this infection were built into an existing herd simulation model. The model simulates epidemiological and production related consequences of PTB and control strategies against it in the herd. It also reflects indirect effects of PTB and control strategies through effects on replacements and herd demographics. Every animal in the herd is specified with biological parameters (including PTB state and test results) and it is updated in weekly time-steps. Management is specified at herd level with 353 parameters of which 78 are related to PTB. To demonstrate the basic characteristics of the model, scenarios with varying infection risks (sensitivity analyses) plus scenarios with seven different control strategies in two herds with good and poor reproduction were simulated for 10 years. Breaking of infection routes turned out to be the only strategy predicted to reduce the true prevalence of PTB in a herd. Supplementing this strategy with test-&-cull strategies had limited effect on prevalence and using test-&-cull alone just delayed the increase in prevalence. The effects of different PTB-control strategies on the production (especially sale/purchase of heifers, feed consumption and prevalences of other diseases) were predicted to be affected by other conditions like heat-detection success, replacement% and herd demographics--which were again affected by PTB infection of the herd. These links and indirect effects of control strategies thus seem important to include when modeling and predicting effects of PTB control in dairy herds.     

Estimated within-herd prevalence (WHP) of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in a sample of Minnesota dairy herds using bacterial culture of pooled fecal samples

The objective of this study was to describe the estimated within-herd prevalence (WHP) of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map) in a sample of infected dairy herds in Minnesota (N = 66) using test results from bacterial culture of pooled fecal samples. Fecal samples were collected from up to 100 cows in each herd and were tested using bacterial culture in pools of 5 cows based on age order. The mean herd size was 222 (44 to 1500) milking cows; the cows were predominantly Holstein. Using a frequentist approach, the within-herd mean individual fecal prevalence was 10% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 4% to 16%] assuming 70% test sensitivity and 99.5% test specificity. Using Bayesian methods, the estimated true within-herd individual cow prevalence was 14% (95% CI = 7% to 27%). Within-herd prevalence was higher in larger dairy herds than in herds with fewer cows. As Map is the causative agent of Johne's disease (JD), the results of this study could contribute to the success of a nationwide control program for this disease.     

Pooled fecal culture sampling for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis at different herd sizes and prevalence.

A stochastic spreadsheet model was developed to obtain estimates of the costs of whole herd testing on dairy farms for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map) with pooled fecal samples. The optimal pool size was investigated for 2 scenarios, prevalence (a low-prevalence herd [< or = 5%] and a high-prevalence herd [> 5%]) and for different herd sizes (100-, 250-, 500- and 1,000-cow herds). All adult animals in the herd were sampled, and the samples of the individuals were divided into equal sized pools. When a pool tested positive, the manure samples of the animals in the pool were tested individually. The individual samples from a negative pool were assumed negative and not tested individually. Distributions were used to model the uncertainty about the sensitivity of the fecal culture at farm level and Map prevalence. The model randomly allocated a disease status to the cows (not shedding, low Map shedder, moderate Map shedder, and heavy Map shedder) on the basis of the expected prevalence in the herd. Pooling was not efficient in 100-cow and 250-cow herds with low prevalence because the probability to detect a map infection in these herds became poor (53% and 88%) when samples were pooled. When samples were pooled in larger herds, the probability to detect at least 1 (moderate to heavy) shedder was > 90%. The cost reduction as a result of pooling varied from 43% in a 100-cow herd with a high prevalence to 71% in a 1,000-cow herd with a low prevalence. The optimal pool size increased with increasing herd size and varied from 3 for a 500-cow herd with a low prevalence to 5 for a 1,000-cow herd with a high prevalence.     

In utero infection of cattle with Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis: a critical review and meta-analysis

Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Mptb) causes Johne's disease in ruminants. Disease control programmes aim to break the faecal-oral cow-calf transmission cycle through hygienic calf rearing and removal of affected cows from the herd, but these programmes do not take account of the potential for congenital infection. The aims of this study were to critically review research on in utero infection, determine the prevalence of fetal infection in cattle through meta-analysis and estimate the incidence of calves infected via the in utero route. About 9% (95% confidence limits 6-14%) of fetuses from subclinically infected cows and 39% (20-60%) from clinically affected cows were infected with Mptb (P<0.001). These are underestimates for methodological reasons. The estimated incidence of calf infection derived via the in utero route depends on within-herd prevalence and the ratio of sub-clinical to clinical cases among infected cows. Assuming 80:20 for the latter, estimates of incidence were in the range 0.44-1.2 infected calves per 100 cows per annum in herds with within-herd prevalence of 5%, and 3.5-9.3 calves in herds with 40% prevalence. These estimates were not markedly sensitive to the value chosen for the proportion of clinical cases. In utero transmission of Mptb could retard the success of disease control programmes if the opportunities for post natal transmission via colostrum/milk and environmental contamination were able to be controlled. The consequences of fetal infection for the calves so infected are discussed in the context of diagnosis and vaccination together with recommendations for future research.     

Eradication of Prototheca zopfii infection in a dairy cattle herd

Protothecosis is a severe form of mastitis in dairy cows caused by colorless algae of the genus Prototheca. Since P. zopfii is highly resistant to all known chemotherapeutics, infected cows must be removed from the herd. Eradication measures are difficult since many chronically infected cows may become intermittent shedders. Therefore, cultural methods are insufficient for control measures. In order to eradicate Prototheca zopfii-mastitis in dairy cattle herds, two isotype specific indirect ELISA for detection of IgA and IgG1 in whey were used in a dairy herd highly affected with protothecal mastitis. All cows (n = 313) were tested four times in intervals of six months. Milk specimens were examined in parallel by cultivation and serologically using two indirect ELISA systems for specific IgA and IgG1 in whey. Cows tested Prototheca positive were consequently separated from the herd and slaughtered. At the first examination, 15.6% of the animals were found positive by culture, and 23.3% were positive in at least one of the ELISA systems. Within two years, protothecal prevalence and incidence decreased to zero indicating that the eradication strategy used was successful. In summary, serological identification of P. zopfii-infected lactating cows is an useful tool to eradicate protothecal bovine mastitis in infected herds.     

A model appropriate to the transmission of a human food-borne pathogen in a multigroup managed herd

We describe a model of microparasite transmission within a multigroup managed farming system. The model was formulated to represent transmission of Escherichia coli O157 within a typical UK dairy herd and was used to suggest possible on-farm control strategies. The model includes birth, death, maturation, the dry/lactating cycle and various types of transmission (i.e. direct, pseudovertical (representing direct faecal–oral transmission between dam and calf within the first 48 h) and indirect (via free-living infectious units in the environment)). A combination of numerical and analytical techniques was used to analyse the model. We found that pseudovertical transmission and indirect transmission via infectious units in the ‘general’ environment can lead to more groups being affected, but otherwise have relatively little effect on the invasion criteria. To reduce infection within the herd, we suggest that efforts be directed at reducing the opportunity for group-specific indirect transmission—particularly within the weaned group.     

A model of the spread of the bovine viral-diarrhoea virus within a dairy herd

Wet BVDSim (a stochastic simulation model) was developed to study the dynamics of the spread of the bovine viral-diarrhoea virus (BVDV) within a dairy herd. This model took into account herd-management factors (common in several countries), which influence BVDV spread. BVDSim was designed as a discrete-entity and discrete-event simulation model. It relied on two processes defined at the individual-animal level, with interactions. The first process was a semi-Markov process and modelled the herd structure and dynamics (demography, herd management). The second process was a Markov process and modelled horizontal and vertical virus transmission. Because the horizontal transmission occurs by contacts (nose-to-nose) and indirectly, transmission varied with the separation of animals into subgroups. Vertical transmission resulted in birth of persistently infected (PI) calves. Other possible consequences of a BVDV infection during the pregnancy period were considered (pregnancy loss, immunity of calves). The outcomes of infection were modelled according to the stage of pregnancy at time of infection. BVDV pregnancy loss was followed either by culling or by a new artificial insemination depending on the modelled farmer’s decision. Consistency of the herd dynamics in the absence of any BVDV infection was verified. To explore the model behaviour, the virus spread was simulated over 10 years after the introduction of a near-calving PI heifer into a susceptible 38 cow herd. Different dynamics of the virus spread were simulated, from early clearance to persistence of the virus 10 years after its introduction. Sensitivity of the model to the uncertainty on transmission coefficient was analysed. Qualitative validation consisted in comparing the bulk-milk ELISA results over time in a sample of herds detected with a new infection with the ones derived from simulations.     

Mathematical modelling and evaluation of the different routes of transmission of lumpy skin disease virus

ABSTRACT: Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a severe viral disease of cattle. Circumstantial evidence suggests that the virus is transmitted mechanically by blood-feeding arthropods. We compared the importance of transmission via direct and indirect contact in field conditions by using mathematical tools. We analyzed a dataset collected during the LSD outbreak in 2006 in a large dairy herd, which included ten separated cattle groups. Outbreak dynamics and risk factors for LSD were assessed by a transmission model. Transmission by three contact modes was modelled; indirect contact between the groups within a herd, direct contact or contact via common drinking water within the groups and transmission by contact during milking procedure. Indirect transmission was the only parameter that could solely explain the entire outbreak dynamics and was estimated to have an overall effect that was over 5 times larger than all other possible routes of transmission, combined. The R0 value induced by indirect transmission per the presence of an infectious cow for 1 day in the herd was 15.7, while the R0 induced by direct transmission was 0.36. Sensitivity analysis showed that this result is robust to a wide range of assumptions regarding mean and standard deviation of incubation period and regarding the existence of sub-clinically infected cattle. These results indicate that LSD virus spread within the affected herd could hardly be attributed to direct contact between cattle or contact through the milking procedure. It is therefore concluded that transmission mostly occurs by indirect contact, probably by flying, blood-sucking insects. This has important implications for control of LSD.     

Sensitivity analysis to identify key-parameters in modelling the spread of bovine viral diarrhoea virus in a dairy herd

Models have been developed to represent the spread of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) in cattle herds. Whereas the herd dynamics is well known, biological data are missing to estimate the parameters of the infection process. Our objective was to identify the parameters of the infection process that highly influence the spread of BVDV in a dairy herd. A stochastic compartmental model in discrete time represented BVDV infection in a typical Holstein dairy herd structured into five groups (calves, young versus older heifers, lactating versus dry cows). Model sensitivity was analysed for variations in the probability of birth of persistently infected (P) calves (b(P)), mortality of P animals (m(P)), within- and between-group transmission rates for P and transiently infected (T) animals (respectively, beta(w)(P),beta(b)(P),beta(w)(T),beta(b)(T)). Three to five values were tested per parameter. All possible combinations of parameter values were explored, representing 3840 scenarios with 200 runs for each. Outputs were: virus persistence 1 year after introduction, time needed to reach a probability of 80% for the herd to be virus-free, epidemic size, mean numbers of immune dams carrying a P foetus, of P and of T animals in infected herds. When considered together, m(P) and beta(b)(P) accounted for 40-80% of variance of all outputs; b(P) and beta(w)(T) accounted each for less than 20% of variance; beta(b)(T) and beta(w)(P) accounted for almost no percent of variance of the outputs. Parameters beta(w)(T) and b(P) needed to be more precisely estimated. The influence of m(P) indicated the effectiveness of culling P calves, the influence of beta(b)(P) indicated the role of the herd structure in BVDV spread, whereas the influence of b(P) indicated the possible role of vaccination programs in controlling within-herd BVDV spread.     

Salmonella Dublin infection in dairy cattle: risk factors for becoming a carrier

Long-term Salmonella Dublin carrier animals harbor the pathogen in lymph nodes and internal organs and can periodically shed bacteria through feces or milk, and contribute to transmission of the pathogen within infected herds. Thus, it is of great interest to reduce the number of new carrier animals in cattle herds. An observational field study was performed to evaluate factors affecting the risk that dairy cattle become carrier animals after infection with Salmonella Dublin. Based on repeated sampling, cattle in 12 Danish dairy herds were categorized according to course of infection, as either carriers (n = 157) or transiently infected (n = 87). The infection date for each animal was estimated from fecal excretion and antibody responses. The relationship between the course of infection (carrier versus transiently infected) and risk factors were analyzed using a random effect multilevel, multivariable logistic regression model. The animals with the highest risk of becoming carriers were heifers infected between the age of 1 year and 1st calving, and cows infected around the time of calving. The risk was higher in the first two quarters of the year (late Winter to Spring), and when the prevalence of potential shedders in the herd was low. The risk also varied between herds. The herds with the highest risk of carrier development were herds with clinical disease outbreaks during the study period. These findings are useful for future control strategies against Salmonella Dublin, because they show the importance of optimized calving management and management of heifers, and because they show that even when the herd prevalence is low, carriers are still being produced. The results raise new questions about the development of the carrier state in cattle after infection with low doses of Salmonella Dublin.     

Indication of transmission of BVDV in the absence of persistently infected (PI) animals

In a closed dairy herd all animals were tested serologically for BVD antibodies twice a year during a 6-year period. Seroconversions were detected every year. At the start of the 6-year monitoring period blood samples from all animals were examined by virus isolation. No persistently infected animals were identified. Entire-herd culturing for BVDV was repeated at the end of the third year. Samples from all newborn female calves were examined for BVDV at approximately 2 months of age and older. During the entire monitoring period BVDV was isolated in one newborn calf twice with an interval of 3 weeks. The mother had seroconverted during pregnancy. Five congenitally infected non-PI calves were identified, the mothers of which had seroconverted during late pregnancy; repeated sampling proved the calves to remain seropositive in a seronegative age cohort. Although direct and indirect introduction of BVDV from outside the herd can never be excluded it seems highly unlikely in this closed herd. The findings indicate that transmission of BVDV can take place over a long period of time in the absence of PI animals. This observation may have serious consequences for control programmes.     

A simulation model of intraherd transmission of foot and mouth disease with reference to disease spread before and after clinical diagnosis.

Intraherd transmission of foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV) was examined using a simulation model for a hypothetical 1,000-cow dairy, assuming clinical diagnosis was made when at least 1% (10 cows) or 5% (50 cows) had clinical signs of FMD, I index case cow, and transition state distributions for the latent, subclinically infectious, and clinically infectious periods of FMD calculated from published data. Estimates assumed for the number of animal-to-animal contacts (k) adequate for transmission ranged from 0.6 to 9.0 per hour (13.7-216.0 per day). A total of 40,000 iterations (5,000 for each scenario, assessing 4 adequate contact rates and 2 detection criteria) were run. The model predicted that FMD would not be diagnosed in the herd until 10.0-13.5 days after the index case cow had become infected, at which time between 65% and 97% of the cows (646-967 cows) to nearly 100% (978-996 cows) would already have become infected with the virus, if the number of cows showing clinical signs of FMD at the time of diagnosis were 10 or 50, respectively. At the time of diagnosis, the simulated number of infectious cattle varied substantially from 82-472 to 476-537 cows, depending on adequate contact rate and whether the diagnosis was made when 10 or 50 animals were showing clinical signs, respectively. The simulated number of infectious cows increased rapidly during the first few days after diagnosis. In the scenario where at least 10 cows showing clinical signs was necessary before a clinical diagnosis was made, each day after diagnosis, the number of infectious animals increased by nearly 100 to more than 200 cases per day up to day 5, assuming 0.57-9.0 animal-to-animal contacts per hour, respectively. Results obtained when it was assumed that at least 50 clinical cases were present at the time of diagnosis showed smaller relative increases because nearly one-half of the herd was projected to be infected at the time of diagnosis. From these results, it is clear that once an individual in a herd becomes infected with FMDV, herd infectivity is not static, rather it accelerates as would be expected as long as there are sufficient susceptible animals to sustain the increasing transmission rate, after which time the rate at which new infections occurs will diminish. Results indicate that biosecurity strategies aimed at minimizing both intraherd and interherd contact will be critical in minimizing the spread of FMD before the initial diagnosis is made. In addition, simulations suggest that very early clinical diagnosis of FMD and effective isolation or depopulation and disposal will be critical in limiting the number of infectious animals capable of transmitting the virus to other herds and thus in timely control of an epidemic. Early diagnosis will rely on early virus detection from animals in the preclinical phase of infection, rather than waiting for clinical signs to manifest in sufficient numbers to be noticed and to warrant investigation.     

Assessment of strategies to control BVDV spread in a dairy herd using computer simulation

The efficiency of a test-and-cull programme to control BVDV spread within a dairy herd was assessed using a stochastic model. A single virus introduction by a non-PI dam carrying a PI foetus was simulated in a typical western-France dairy herd. Herd monitoring in test-and-cull programme enabled us to detect virus spread within 1 year after introduction in 87% of the replications. The test-and-cull programme reduced the length of the virus persistence. The extent of infection was moderately reduced.     

Simulation of alternatives for the Dutch Johne's disease certification-and-monitoring program

To identify optimal method(s) for certification and subsequent monitoring of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map)-unsuspected herds, certification-and-monitoring schemes were studied using a stochastic simulation model ("JohneSSim"). JohneSSim simulated the within-herd transmission and economic aspects of Map in closed Dutch dairy herds. The model was validated with field observations on Map-unsuspected herds. The current Dutch certification-and-monitoring schemes were compared with 11 alternative schemes in which individual and pooled fecal culture, ELISA, Johnin-intradermal test and gamma-IFN ELISA were used, varying the test frequency, tested age group and number of tested animals. On reaching the 'Map-free' status with the standard certification scheme, 11% of the simulated herds were not truly Map-free. Therefore, the designation 'Map-free' should be changed into, for instance, 'low-risk Map'. In the most-attractive alternative certification scheme, the 'Map-free' status was reached after four herd examinations (at 2-year intervals) consisting of serial testing of all cattle > or = 2 years of age with a pooled fecal culture and individual fecal culture of positive pools. This scheme resulted in lower total and annual discounted costs and a lower animal-level prevalence at reaching the 'Map-free' status compared to the standard scheme, assuming that there was no new introduction of the infection. Schemes to monitor the 'Map-free' status were compared, assuming that this status was reached with the standard certification scheme. In comparison to the standard monitoring scheme, none of the alternative monitoring schemes resulted in both a lower animal-level prevalence of undetected pre-existing Map infections in closed herds, and lower median annual discounted costs. Results of the model were very sensitive to the assumed sensitivity of the fecal culture test and to management measures that prevent within-herd transmission of Map. If these preventive measures were taken, the probability of undetected Map infections in closed 'Map-free' herds was decreased substantially.