The Influence of Booms and Busts in the U.S. Economy on the Interstate Migration System

Migration flows around the U.S. have shown a great deal of temporal and geographical differentiation over the past few decades. However, the recent downturn in the U.S. economy provides a renewed motivation to explore the relationship between the macro‐economy and interstate migration. To address this issue, in this paper patterns of interstate migration are analyzed using IRS data and several migration efficiency measures for 18 2‐year time periods, 1988–2006. Included in the analysis is an examination of the relationship between system migration and economic change, structural changes in the migration system over time (national and state level), and changes in the geography of state‐level migration efficiency rates. As might be expected, the two full business cycles that occurred over this time period saw significant short‐term changes in migration flows, although the economic downturn of 2001‐02 may indicate more fundamental changes in the migration system.     

Maquiladoras and U.S.‐Bound Migration in Central Mexico

Over the past one and a half decades, smaller cities and nonmetropolitan areas in Mexico have attracted manufacturing plants, led by the export manufacturing sector. Maquiladoras in particular are increasingly locating their plants in such places in the “deep interior” Mexico—outside of the border states. Using 1980 and 1990 Mexican census data for 19 growth centers and 27 high‐emigration municipios (counties) in Central Mexico, this paper suggests that foreign‐owned assembly (maquiladora) jobs decentralized significantly over the 1980s, locating closer to emigrant municipios. An examination of 17 emigrant municipios in the industrialized states of Jalisco and Guanajuato found that an emigrant municipio's accessibility to maquiladora jobs, and jobs indirectly related to maquiladora growth, was positively related to its overall employment growth, which was, in turn, negatively related to its U.S. migration rate over the decade. Although the migration reduction inherent in these relationships is relatively small, it could be accelerated by U.S. and Mexican policies giving incentives for more peripheral locations of export‐oriented and other manufacturing.     

Short-term dynamics of the U.S. interstate migration system, 1980-1988

"This paper identifies short-term fluctuations in the [U.S.] interstate migration system using annual state-to-state migration flow data from Internal Revenue Service (IRS) records for the period, 1980 to 1988. Measures of migration efficiency are employed to indicate the net redistribution of population between states relative to the size of underlying gross interstate flows. Three findings stand out: (1) migration was more effective in redistributing the population in years of economic retrenchment than during periods of growth and expansion, (2) the dominant pattern of population redistribution shifted from a core-periphery configuration evident in the 1970s and early 1980s to a bi-coastal distribution by the mid-1980s, and (3) the most dramatic event of the 1980s was the oil glut and decline in oil prices and profits which ravaged the economies of energy states in the West South Central and Mountain regions....Overall, results demonstrate the high degree of temporal and spatial volatility in the U.S. interstate migration system."     

Income Migration and Income Convergence across U.S. States, 1995–2010

In this paper we examine how internal migration redistributes earned income across U.S. states between 1995 and 2010. We examine interregional income flows by first describing the movement of earned income between U.S. states. Second, we examine the effect of income migration on spatial patterns of income inequality. The question we ask is, “does migration increase or decrease convergence income across U.S. States?” A primary contribution of this paper is that instead of using only 1 year of income migration data to explore these issues, we use yearly data from the first year the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) data started including income (1995/1996) up to the most current data available (2009/2010). Results indicate that income convergence/divergence across states varies by whether or not there is general economic expansion or contraction. Nevertheless, some high‐amenity states continually attract high‐income households.     

The Shifting Destinations of Metropolitan Migrants in the U.S., 2005–2011

Recent estimates that central cities are growing faster than their suburbs in the U.S. have captured the attention of both academics and the popular media. Many commentators have used these numbers to claim that internal migration trends in the U.S. have reached a turning point, in which migrants increasingly prefer urban residences to suburban locales. However, these assertions often rely on problematic definitions of city and suburb, and pay too little attention to demographic variations among migrants. This paper examines whether recent internal migrants in the U.S. are choosing closer‐in destinations, drawing from microdata samples from the American Community Survey since 2005. During this period, there is an overall trend of migrants to the largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. choosing to migrate closer to the metropolitan core. However, this trend varies significantly among major demographic groups; whereas younger, single, educated, and white‐collar migrants show evidence of a return to the core, migrants who are blue‐collar, less‐educated, older, and with families remain more suburban. In turn, this analysis suggests that overall trends of “back to the city” migration are producing considerable divergence in the metropolitan destinations of different demographic groups.     

Regional population growth rate differences: note

"This note investigates regional population growth in the U.S. for 1959-84, taking into account four city sizes and three time periods. It is found that the growth is largest in city size (0.5-1.0) million and (1.0-2.0) million. Over time, the growth is largest in the less urbanized regions." The note aims to supplement the findings of Daniel Garnick and is based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.     

Retail Trade on the U.S.‐Mexico Border During the NAFTA Implementation Era

ABSTRACT When NAFTA was implemented in 1994, there was a general expectation that it would hurt U.S. retailers along the U.S.‐Mexico border. This paper asks whether there was a significant change in the pattern of retail trade in border MSAs in the years surrounding NAFTA's implementation. Data from MSAs in the four border states are analyzed. After controlling for other potential influences on retail trade, there remained a statistically significant change in the pattern of retail trade between 1992 and 1997. The changes cannot be unquestionably attributed to NAFTA but do suggest that NAFTA had a negative influence on retail sales on the U.S. side of the border.     

The Great Recession and the Migration Redistribution of Blacks and Whites in the U.S. South

For much of the last century, the South was a net loser of blacks and whites to other regions. The end of this “Great Migration” occurred around 1970. Since then, the South is the only U.S. region to gain both blacks and whites through migration in every decade. As recessions often perturb migration systems by restraining rates of movement and altering patterns, this paper explores how the Great Recession of 2007–2009 and its aftermath affected the established migration gains of native‐born blacks and whites within the South. We use data from the 1990 and 2000 censuses and pooled data from American Community Survey to evaluate these changes. While the South continued to add both blacks and whites from migration during the recessionary years, key states bucked this trend. Georgia, for example, experienced a net migration gain of blacks but a net loss of whites. Florida added population in all time periods studied but lost large numbers of educated blacks and whites between 2008–2010. Texas, in contrast, added both blacks and whites from migration no matter their age or education throughout the recent recession. This economic downturn, then, has disturbed long‐term migration patterns in the South. A more nuanced set of interstate movements has emerged, differentiated by age and education within race groups, which we suspect will last for some time.     

Air Passenger Transportation and Growth in the U.S. Urban System, 1950–1987

The relationship between transportation and urbanization at the national scale is revisited by focusing upon the role that air passenger transportation has played in the post-war evolution of the U.S. urban system. Theory suggests that major transportation innovations have exhibited profound and prolonged interdependencies with patterns of growth in national or regional urban systems. As the most recent major intercity transportation innovation, it should be expected that utilization of air transportation should bear some relationship to patterns of growth in urban places. This paper documents this relationship by using FAA and U.S. Census data to correlate volumes of air passenger flows per capita with changes in population and employment for the 50 largest U.S. metropolitan areas. The expectation that higher volumes of air passenger flow per capita exhibit a positive correlation with both previous and subsequent growth is confirmed by the analysis. More detailed examination of both high and low air passenger index cities suggests functional and regional consistencies with the central hypothesis. The implications of these results for air transportation and airport planning include at least some justification for increased attention to provision of air service and adequate airport infrastructure as well as reiteration of the importance of air transportation in economic development.     

Associations among widely used French and U.S. maize hybrids as revealed by restriction fragment length polymorphisms

Summary Eighty DNA Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism (RFLP) clones were used as probes to profile 47 hybrids of maize (Zea mays L.) that are of widespread usage in France and 49 hybrids that are either in common usage or are new releases in the U.S. The objectives were to 1) investigate the degree to which RFLPs provide unique characterization of hybrids; 2) show associations among hybrids using both cluster and principal coordinate analyses; 3) measure the ability of RFLPs to show associations among hybrids that reflect those to be expected on the basis of pedigree; and 4) compare the patterns and extent of genetic diversity among French hybrids with that found among a set of widely used U.S. hybrids.RFLPs showed all French hybrids to have different profiles, however, 3 hybrids were very similar with more than 90% of their profiles in common. Twenty-seven U.S. hybrids showed this level of similarity with one or more U.S. hybrids. High correlations (r=0.93, 0.94) were found for pedigree distance versus RFLP distance between pairs of French and of French and U.S. hybrids, respectively. Similar levels of correspondence for rank correlations between RFLP and pedigree data were also found. Similar groupings of hybrids were shown by two cluster analysis methods and by principal coordinate analysis. Inclusion of hybrids in cluster groupings was supported by observation of raw distance data for selected hybrids and their nearest neighbors. Most hectarage in France is planted to hybrids that fall within 2 related groups of germplasm on the basis of RFLP data. Minimum distance standards could promote breeders to surmount the challenge of introducing elite yet diverse germplasm into agriculture.     

The Spatial Structure of Large U. S. Law Firms

Large law firms exert a disproportionate influence over the structure and practice of the legal profession. The spatial structure of these corporations, including the distribution of headquarters and branch offices and their interlinkages, is poorly understood. This paper explores the geography of domestic employment among the largest U. S. 500 law firms using linkage analysis. It highlights the concentration of such firms in large cities and the particular importance of New York and Washington, D. C. In the international arena, U. S. law firms are highly influential. The paper examines the spatial distribution of overseas employment by large U. S. law firms and utilizes input-output analysis to explore the domestic employment impacts of foreign legal services exports.     

Globalization and Regional Change in the U.S. Furniture Industry

ABSTRACT Furniture manufacturing has experienced rapid globalization in recent years. This is mainly the result of global production networks established by large manufacturers and retailers seeking to reduce costs in a highly competitive environment. The industry's globalization has been facilitated by technological innovations and the global reduction of trade and investment barriers. In the U.S., furniture‐producing regions are experiencing tumultuous change. Growing numbers of firms are outsourcing production to China, which is now responsible for about half of all U.S. furniture imports. Employment levels have plummeted. However, an analysis of spatial patterns of employment, output, and capital investment in U.S. furniture manufacturing shows that regional change is not uniform. Southern regions characterized by larger firms specializing in wooden case goods production have been especially vulnerable to job loss.     

Patterns of Broadband Efficiency in the U.S

Data envelopment analysis is used to assess the efficiency of broadband Internet adoption and use in the U.S. Analyses at the state level from 2005 to 2007 suggest that broadband adoption and use is not equally efficient across the U.S. states. Although the instantaneous efficiencies are relatively high for many states, the changes in total factor productivity suggest that the efficiency of broadband adoption and use still increases over time. Moreover, it is observed that efficiency values are often spatially autocorrelated, which suggests spatial dependency from spillovers or interstate competition. This leads to a particular spatial diffusion pattern in broadband adoption. Although states have different strategies in support of broadband expansion they need to identify their shortcomings and use the appropriate mix of inputs (and outputs) to improve their efficiencies.     

The Returns to Migration: The Influence of Education and Migration Type

We show the impact of migration type on real wages over time. We create a migration and earnings history from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth over the period 1979–2002. We estimate the effects of primary, onward, and two types of return migration on real wages using a panel data model with individual, location, and time fixed effects. Panel data are well suited for the study of the returns to U.S. internal migration because the influence of migration on wages has been found to occur years after the event. We differentiate return migration into two types: return to a location with ties that form a geographical anchor (“home”) and return to a prior place of work. We find that real wage growth varies by migration type. Education attainment is a significant factor in real wage growth. Our results show that onward migration is an important channel by which the monetary rewards to a college education are manifested.     

Labor Market of a U.S.-Japanese Automobile Joint Venture

Starting with a brief location analysis of the plant site, in this paper we analyze the characteristics and geography of the labor market for a U.S.- Japanese automobile joint venture. Based on a survey of the firm's employees, we show that the labor market is two-tiered and stretches over many states in the United States. There are clear differences in skills, gender and socio-demographic characteristics between short and long distance movers, and American workers are willing and able to adapt to technology and work practices originating in a different culture. Most employees hold positive opinions of the work environment and practices at the plant, Japanese influence in the U.S. economy and U.S.-Japanese economic relations, despite perceiving Japan as an economic threat to the United States. We conclude with some policy implications of our findings and an agenda for future research.     

Estimating Employment‐Related Migration from Overlapping Migration and Commuting Networks

A U.S. county workplace‐to‐workplace or latent migration data set is generated from overlapping migration and commuting networks. The latent migration network is the estimated number of movers between places of work, which is then compared with the actual number of migrants between places of residence. This allows both employment‐related and amenity‐related migration and pull/push factors as causes of migration flows to be identified and contrasted. Certain counties and cities that are not important migration destinations (e.g., with <200,000 net in‐migrants between 1995 and 2000) according to official data are in fact important targets when additional in‐migrants who commute into surrounding counties also are considered. An econometric analysis is then used to examine whether different regressors have different effects on the residence‐ versus employment‐based migration patterns. This is a first assessment of whether or not the proposed approach has merit. Results are consistent with prior expectations regarding the factors that would motivate latent versus actual migration.     

Effects of the Housing Boom and Bust on U.S. Metro Employment

This paper examines the effects of the housing boom of the early 2000s on unemployment in U.S. metropolitan areas. A region's share of housing units built between 2000 and 2006 has no effect on unemployment prior to the start of the Great Recession, but the extent of a region's housing boom increases unemployment in over one‐half of the months analyzed during and immediately following it. Regression results based on a cluster analysis of metropolitan areas indicate that regions characterized by high growth rates of construction, retail, and hospitality employment during the early 2000s were hit particularly hard by the recession.     

Evidence on occupational migration

"This paper tests whether persons in highly skilled and higher-income occupations (who include professionals, managers, salespersons, clerical workers, and craftsworkers) are more likely to migrate when they perceive economic opportunities than persons in the lesser skilled and lower-income ones (who include operatives, transport workers, laborers, and service workers). "A simultaneous equations model of migration and employment change is specified for the nine major occupations defined in the U.S. census, and this model is estimated using occupation-specific data....This study is limited to an investigation of the impact of migration on a variable that was deemed to have been a significant determinant of the direction and magnitude of migration; this variable is occupation-related employment change by industry.... In order to analyze the migration response of persons in different occupations to varying economic conditions, this paper [includes] sections on theory and model specification, empirical results, and conclusions." Data are from the 1970 census.     

Breeding potential of U.S. maize germplasm for utilization in Chinese temperate conditions

U.S. maize germplasm has been considered as a new alternative source of favorable alleles to broaden the narrowing genetic base of temperate germplasm. However, direct utilization of diverse U.S. germplasm in target mega-environments could be hampered by limited adaptation-related information on parental performance or heterotic response in crosses with local germplasm. The objective of this study was to measure the performance of U.S. maize populations for broadening the Chinese germplasm base. Fifteen diverse U.S. populations were testcrossed to three local tester lines, representing Chinese heterotic groups A, B, and D, to evaluate parental adaptation and combining abilities for days to silking (DS), ear height (EH), and grain yield (GY) in target and intermediate mega-environments in northern China. There was genetic variability among U.S. maize populations for additive and non-additive effects for DS and GY, and predominant additive genetic effects for EH. All 15 U.S. populations, except for BS27 and BS31 due to slightly high EH, could be directly used in target mega-environments similar to the U.S. Corn Belt. U.S. populations BS11(HI)C7, BS13(S)C7, BS17(CB)C4, BS31, BSCB1(R)C12, and BSBB(SRCB)C4 had better effects for increasing GY. Favorable effects for DS were also observed in BS11(HI)C5 and BS31, for DS and EH in BS13(S)C7 and BSCB1(R)C12, and for EH in BSBB(SRCB)C4. The best strategies for utilizing these germplasms may be to introgress BS13(S)C7 and BS17(CB)C4 into group A, BS11(HI)C5 into group B, and BSCB1(R)C12 and BSBB(SRCB)C4 into group D to increase genetic variation within Chinese heterotic pools.     

美国蜂业支持政策及其对中国的启示

养蜂业由于蜜蜂为作物授粉而对农业生产起着关键作用,然而当前中国的蜂产业政策还十分欠缺,政府没有为养蜂业发展提供优良的政策环境。因此为了提出完善中国蜂业支持政策体系的政策建议,促进中国蜂业较快发展,本研究使用归纳分析的方法,分析和借鉴了美国相对健全的蜂业支持政策体系。分析结果表明：美国的蜂业支持政策可分为以下几类——以稳定养蜂者收入为目标的蜂蜜价格支持政策;以保护国内蜂蜜生产者利益为目标的蜂蜜贸易保护政策;以减轻养蜂灾害损失为目标的蜂业保险和紧急援助政策;以解决蜂业病虫害和蜂群消失问题为目标的科研支持政策以及以监管养蜂生产环节为目标的养蜂注册与检疫政策。结合中国蜂业政策现状,中国蜂业支持政策体系要从开发政策性蜂业保险并辅以养蜂风险救助,加大财政对蜂业补贴力度,加强对蜂业科研的支持,加强养蜂生产环节控制几个方面来完善。