大西北自然灾害及其对策的初步研究

本文在对近40年来我国西北地区自然灾害统计调查的基础上,对当地自然灾害产生的地理背景、灾害类型、时空分布特点以及减灾对策作了概括和初步总结。     

论气象灾害对新疆国民经济的影响及其对策

本文用了大量的资料论证了气象灾害是新疆主要的自然灾害，同时，阐明了气象灾害是制约新疆国民经济发展的一大因素，以及产生原因及其对策。     

1949-1990年塔里木盆地自然灾害时空分布特征研究

通过对塔里木盆地1949-1990年自然灾害的统计分析,结果表明:该地区自然灾害以洪灾、暴雨灾害、风灾及雹灾发生较为频繁。在年际分布上,各主要自然灾害的发生频次总体上呈较明显的波动增长趋势并且灾次的频发期具有周期性变化的特点,在年内分布上,灾害频发期多出现在春、夏季节。在空间分布上,表现为灾害次数具有明显的区域性,在空间上主要呈条带状或块状的分布格局。从行政区划上看,塔里木盆地有2个自然灾害频发区,分别是阿克苏地区和喀什地区。总的分布特点是:山区多,山区与盆地交界地带多,盆地内部较少;灾害发生频次以盆地北部最为集中,表现出北多南少、西多东少的基本格局。     

基于GIS的青南高原自然灾害综合区划研究

本文根据青南高原地形、地貌、气候等自然地理要素及2002年人口、经济等社会人文要素和1949-2000年自然灾害统计数据与相关文献,运用ARCGIS 9.0及ARCVIEW 3.2软件建立青南高原自然灾害综合区划空间数据库及属性数据库并生成区划基本单元,运用自下而上区域合并的方法得到青南高原自然灾害区划小区,结合自上而下区域划分的方法将青南高原自然灾害划为4个一级灾害区10个二级灾害区,得到青南高原自然灾害综合区划方案。     

我国农作物重大病虫发生态势分析

我国农作物重大病虫发生态势分析胡伯海，姜瑞中，邵振润（农业部全国植保总站，１０００２６）我国是自然灾害严重多发国家，农作物病虫灾害为其中主要灾害之一。对粮棉生产有直接的重大影响。１农作物重大病虫发生状况随着农业生产的发展，耕作制度不断变更，生产措施不...     

宁夏自然灾害综合分区及多尺度特征分析

利用宁夏1978～2007年自然灾害(包括旱灾、洪涝灾害、风雹灾、霜冻灾害、病虫灾害及其他灾害)受灾面积(成灾面积)、受灾人口(死伤人口)、牲畜伤亡、倒塌房屋(损坏房屋)、粮食减产、经济损失(直接损失、间接损失)及同期物价指数资料,采用灰色关联分析方法,建立定量化模型,在灾害等级划分的基础上,以县为单位将宁夏自然灾害分...     

遥感技术在新疆自然灾害调查和预测中的应用分析

近20年来,遥感技术已逐步应用于自然灾害调查和预测预报。其中,受灾害面积调查和损失估算方面报告较多。因多数灾害的前兆较难用遥感技术捕捉,故应用于灾害预测预报方面的文献较少,有待于进一步探索。遥感技术是对地球系统的远距离探测技术。发生于地球表面的灾害(及其前兆)有一定     

1992年新疆自然灾害综述与评价

1992年新疆自然灾害频繁,灾情严重。发生了建国以来罕见的低温冷害、霜冻灾害。此外,新疆局部地区还受到了冰雹、干旱、大风、暴雨洪水、泥石流、雪害、病虫害、森林火灾等灾害的侵袭。全疆耕地受灾面积807.9千ha,粮食减产2.81亿kg,棉花减产1.2亿kg,油料减产0.42亿kg。自治区(不含兵团)各种自然灾害造成的经济损失达4亿元以上。     

基于Copulas函数的内蒙古强沙尘暴特征及其灾害性研究

针对自然灾害中进行多变量分析的重要性和目前存在的不足,引入了金融领域中应用成熟的Copulas函数理论和方法,对内蒙古1990-2008年的强沙尘暴灾害事件进行了案例分析,建立了强沙尘暴事件10 min平均最大风速和持续时间两个基本特征变量的联合分布,计算了基于联合分布的联合重现期。通过与基于单变量重现期的比较和实际验证,得出联合重现期更加准确。实例研究表明,Copulas函数能够很好的描述强沙尘暴灾害两个基本特征变量的联合分布,得出的重现期对当地防灾减灾策略的制定和风险管理水平的提高具有重要的参考价值。通过对沙尘暴灾害多变量分析方法的探讨,也为此方法在自然灾害风险研究中进一步的应用奠定基础。     

抓好植保工作 确保农业丰收

农业生产是露天作业，在整个农业生产过程中，人类要不断地和各种自然灾害作斗争。病虫灾害是一种发生频率高、对农业生产构成威胁的自然灾害。能否得到有效控制，直接关系着农业生产的丰欠，关系着广大农民的生计。在广大农村实行联产承包责任制后，农业生产的基本单位由生产队转向了农户，面对千千万万的农户，给植保工作提出了一个新的课题和更高的要求，使植保工作的地位显得越来越重要。１充分认识担保工作的重要性现阶段的农业仍然是一个抗灾农业，植保工作是一项抗灾工作，各级领导必须对这一点有充分的认识。在一定的自然条件和栽培…     

过去3000年季风降水变化与突变事件的洞穴石笋记录对比

基于辽宁省暖和洞2支石笋6个230Th年龄与190个δ18O数据,建立了晚全新世3500～200a B.P.东亚季风降水序列。3个百年尺度的弱季风事件已被证实:2800-2600、1500-1200和400-200a B.P.,其与北大西洋冰漂碎屑事件在发生时间上具有较好的一致性。与内陆高精度、高分辨率石笋δ18O记录对比结果显示:1)轨道-千年尺度季风降水长期趋势变化相一致;2)百年-数十年尺度上季风降水具有明显的区域性,如距今1200-500 a B.P.,东北地区降水逐渐增加,西部干旱-半干旱地区降水逐渐减少,长江中下游以及南方地区降水变化趋势不明显。太阳活动与北大西洋气候波动可能对百年尺度东亚夏季风的强弱变化施加了重要影响。     

Drought fluctuations based on dendrochronology since 1786 for the Lenglongling Mountains at the northwestern fringe of the East Asian summer monsoon region

The Lenglongling Mountains(LLM)located in northeastern part of the Tibet Plateau,belong to a marginal area of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)and are sensitive to monsoon dynamics.Two tree-ring width chronologies developed from six sites of Picea crassifolia in the LLM were employed to study the regional drought variability.Correlation and temporal correlation analyses showed that relationships between the two chronologies and self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index(sc_PDSI)were significant and stable across time,demonstrating the strength of sc_PDSI in modeling drought conditions in this region.Based on the relationships,the mean sc_PDSI was reconstructed for the period from 1786 to 2013.Dry conditions prevailed during 1817–1819,1829–1831,1928–1931 and 1999–2001.Relatively wet periods were identified for 1792–1795 and 1954–1956.Spatial correlations with other fourteen precipitation/drought reconstructed series in previous studies revealed that in arid regions of Northwest China,long-term variability of moisture conditions was synchronous before the 1950 s at a decadal scale(1791–1954).In northwestern margin of the EASM,most of all selected reconstructions had better consistency in low-frequency variation,especially during dry periods,indicating similar regional moisture variations and analogous modes of climate forcing on tree growth in the region.     

过去1500年宝鸡地区农业旱涝灾害与全国冷暖对应分析

揭示人类对环境变化的响应 ,已经成为近年来全球变化研究新的热点。根据我国陕西省宝鸡地区农业旱涝灾害史料 ,统计出 7世纪到 2 0世纪末的 15 0 0年间发生的旱涝灾害的年数 ,应用频数分析法及灾情等级指数分析法 ,发现宝鸡地区历史农业旱涝灾害的频度和灾情 ,均具有明显的波动变化特征。与全国季风区年均气温的变化进行对比 ,可以看出农业旱灾频数对气温变化有很好的冷多和暖少的对应关系 ,并且农业旱涝灾情在气温突变时段较严重 ,在气温平稳持续时段较弱。进一步分析表明 ,宝鸡地区农业旱涝频率的变化存在千年周期。在千年周期的结束期 ,即转换期 ,农业旱涝频率变化同步。     

近百年来季风尾闾区的动态变化及其预测

季风尾闾区的最南位置、最北位置分别出现在20年代末和50年代末,其动态变化主要有整体南北移动和东西相反摆动两种型式;1990—1994年季风尾闾区以北移为主,1995—2000年以南移为主。     

中国西北地区与东部季风区秋季气温对比

选取1962-2006年中国西北地区139个气象站、东部季风区378个气象站的秋季平均气温资料,采用相关分析、周期分析、线性趋势分析,分别对西北干旱区、东部季风区秋季平均气温时空分布特征作了初步对比,分析了西北干旱区与东部同纬度季风区气温变化特征的异同。结果表明:西北干旱区和东部季风区秋季气温主要受大尺度天气系统影响,其历年变化趋势基本一致;在全球变暖的背景下,西北干旱区和东部季风区气温逐步升高的趋势是一致的,并且气温升高有进一步加剧的趋势。西北干旱区增温幅度0.36℃/10 a,东部季风区增温幅度0.31℃/10 a,西北干旱区升温的幅度明显高于东部季风区,是气候变化的敏感区和脆弱区。     

Drought and flood characteristics in the farming- pastoral ecotone of northern China based on the Standardized Precipitation Index

The farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China (FPENC) provides an important ecological barrier which restrains the invasion of desert into Northwest China. Studying drought and flood characteristics in the FPENC can provide scientific support and practical basis for the protection of the FPENC. Based on monthly precipitation data from 115 meteorological stations, we determined the changes in climate and the temporal and spatial variations of drought and flood occurrence in the FPENC during 1960-2020 using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Morlet wavelet transform, and inverse distance weighted interpolation method. Annual precipitation in the FPENC showed a slightly increasing trend from 1960 to 2020, with an increasing rate of about 1.15 mm/a. The interannual SPI exhibited obvious fluctuations, showing an overall non-significant upward trend (increasing rate of 0.02/a). Therefore, the study area showed a wetting trend in recent years. Drought and flood disasters mainly occurred on an interannual change cycle of 2-6 and 9-17 a, respectively. In the future, a tendency towards drought can be expected in the FPENC. The temporal and spatial distribution of drought and flood differed in the northwestern, northern, and northeastern segments of the FPENC, and most of the drought and flood disasters occurred in local areas. Severe and extreme drought disasters were concentrated in the northwestern and northeastern segments, and severe and extreme flood disasters were mainly in the northeastern segment. Drought was most frequent in the northwestern segment, the central part of the northeastern segment, and the northern part of the northern segment. Flood was most frequent in the western part of the northwestern segment, the eastern part of the northeastern segment, and the eastern and western parts of the northern segment. The accurate evaluation of the degrees of drought and flood disasters in the FPENC will provide scientific basis for the regional climate study and critical information on which to base decisions regarding environmental protection and socio-economic development in this region.     

Early Holocene environment at a key location of the northwest boundary of the Asian summer monsoon： a synthesis on chronologies of Zhuye Lake,Northwest China

The intensified monsoon increases summer rainfall and creates wet conditions in the Asian summer monsoon region during the early Holocene. Along with millennial-scale changes of the monsoon intensity, it is still unclear whether the boundary of the monsoon region changes according to monsoon variability. Investigations into the early Holocene environment in monsoon marginal zones are crucial for understanding the monsoon boundary changes. Zhuye Lake is located at the northwest edge of the Asian summer monsoon, the northern Qilian Mountains, which are less affected by modern summer monsoon water vapor. Previous studies have reached different conclusions regarding the early Holocene climatic and environmental changes based on different dating methods(14C and OSL(optically stimulated luminescence)) and materials(shells, carbonate, pollen concentrates and bulk organic carbon). In this study, we synthesized 102 14C dates and 35 OSL dates from ten Holocene sedimentary sections and ten paleo-shorelines in the lake basin. A comparison between ages from different dating methods and materials generally shows that carbon reservoir effects are relatively slight in Zhuye Lake while the disordered chronologies are mainly related to the erosion processes and reworking effects. In addition, proxy data, including lithology, pollen, total organic carbon and carbonate, were collected from different sites of Zhuye Lake. According to the new synthesis, the early Holocene environment was relatively humid, associated with high runoff and lake water levels. The result indicates that the monsoon boundary moves to the north during the period of the intensified monsoon. A typical arid-area lake was formed during the mid-Holocene when carbonate accumulation and high organic matter contents were the main features of this period. The lake retreated strongly during the late Holocene, showing a drought trend. Overall, the lake evolution is generally consistent with the Holocene Asian summer monsoon change, showing the monsoon influence to monsoon marginal zones.     

未来一百年内我国北方地区气候变化趋势初探

本文分析了影响我国北方气候变化的主要因素,特别是对CO_2浓度增大时所带来的气候效应作了重点分析,经过综合归纳后得出我国北方气候在今后一百年内的两个基本变化趋势:第一:旱化加重,旱涝灾害频繁;第二:从现在起到下世纪三十年代,气候继续转冷,之后气候逐步转暖。     

Coastal environment of the past millennium recorded by a coastal dune in Fujian,China

Coastal dune is a common aeolian geomorphology in a sandy coast,which records the evolution process of the aeolian landscape system and reflects the complex interaction among land surface,atmosphere and ocean.Coast is a sensitive area to global climate change.Restricted by chronology,most previous researches in China focused only on the cause of formation of coastal dunes.In recent years,the development of optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating provides a good method and acts as a carrier for coastal dunes to paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental studies.In this study,we selected an aeolian dune at the Anshan archaeological site,Fujian,China as the research object based on field observations.For determining their sedimentary stages and the primary influencing factors,we used the OSL dating method to construct a chronological framework for the aeolian dune.In addition,the sizes of grains were analyzed for identifying factors influencing the winter monsoon during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA) in this area.The results showed that the deposition of the aeolian dune was closely related to variations in the winter monsoon intensity.The changes of the winter monsoon were similar to the tendency of the East Asian winter monsoon,although there were several sub-fluctuations.From an overall perspective,the winter monsoon was strengthened during the MWP (1050–1300) .The results of a power spectrum analysis showed that the intensity of the East Asian winter monsoon is correlated with sunspot activity.     

青藏高原主要自然灾害特点及分布规律研究

青藏高原是我国自然灾害频发区。文中研究了青藏高原主要自然灾害特点及分布规律,结果表明：（1）雪灾是青藏高原发生频率最高、损失最大的自然灾害,有两个高发中心,一个是西藏山南地区,另一个位于青海南部和四川西北交界地区;（2）干旱也是青藏高原多发自然灾害,西藏那曲南部、日喀则北部、拉萨周边地区,昌都东北部及青海、四川与西藏交...