Application of Simulation Method on the Financial Evaluation of Construction Projects

In order to provide a reliable foundation for project decision, some sorts of financial indexes of the project, such as NPV, IRR etc, should be accurately estimated out in the earlier stage. However, these indexes appear in the future randomly, and their estimation in the earlier stage is at risk. In this paper, taking the project's NPV as example and applying simulation method to its estimation, the authors developed a comparatively objective evaluation method of construction projects. Furthermore, the outcome of the simulation method is tested by comparing it with the result of another evaluation method.     

Study on Application of Value - at - Risk to the Risk Evaluation of Construction Project Bidding

The value-at-risk(VaR) model is a statistical model to estimate and control financial risk,and used to measure the most probable loss on the next deal stage of financial asset portfolio.Based on the principle of the value-at-risk,in this paper the value-at-risk is to be applied to the risk evaluation of construction project.Assuming the sub-project prices abide by the BQ model are random variable which conform to normal distribution,this paper has built up the portfolio of project according to biding and quoted price of construction project,and adopted the variance-covariance method to measure the value-at-risk of the biding and quoted price in order to provide a feasible risk analysis tool for the evaluation of construction project bidding.     

A Simulative Method of Investment Decision in Real Estate Development

This paper has simulated major risk factors and estimation indexes which influence on project investment in real estate development. It confirms the scope of risk factors by reaching it's reliability, The problems are resolved in obtaining values of factors and it's probabilistic distributing;the limitation is over come in estimating the income of investment by a point-estimation.An impersonal and reliable method of investment decision is provided in real estate development, and the result is ideal in practive test.     

基于项目成功度评价方法的世行贷款农业科技 项目绩效评价研究

项目绩效评价是在项目已经完成并运行一段时间后,对项目的效果、效益和影响进行系统的、客观的分析和总结的一种技术经济活动。文章利用成功度评价方法,构建了成功度评价的基本模型,对利用世界银行贷款加强灌溉农业项目评价指标进行等级评定。同时运用层次分析法对各项指标进行层次分析,计算出各指标的权重值,得出利用世界银行贷款加强灌溉农业项目的总体绩效评价结果。利用成功度评价方法便于客观、科学地评价项目区实施的效益、总结经验和教训,为利用世界银行贷款加强灌溉农业项目乃至农业综合开发项目的决策、建设、管理等提供参考。     

On Precise Yang Le Inequality and Deficiency Sum

Along with the increase in the number of large-scale construction projects, a series of negative effects concerning various interest-related parts have emerged,which urges a comprehensive and objective evaluation of construction project so as to evaluate its overall satisfaction. In this paper,an evaluation indexes system of construction project satisfaction was advanced,which consists of 19 values coming from all main interest concerning parties, including users, investors, owners, suppliers, government and organizations nearby. A BP neural network evaluation model was built which was self-adaptive, self-organizing and self-study. And this evaluation model was applied to specific project ease. The result showed that this approach can improve the reliability and effectiveness of satisfaction evaluation of the construction project.     

Comparative Study of Construction Project Letters of Guarantee in P. R. China and the United States

A construction project letter of guarantee is used as financial credit to insure the smooth project execution. The construction project letter of guarantee system developed over one hundred years in the United States where a comprehensive system has been established. It is proven that the system played a vital role in controlling construction industry risk in the U.S. In contrast, the system developed later in P. R. China but has played an increasing role in the Chinese construction industry. Based on a discussion of the structure, meaning and condition of the letter of guarantee system in the U.S., a suitable framework is sought to promote development of the letter of guarantee system in the Chinese construction industry.     

联户沼气工程的经济与环境效益评价

联户沼气实施时间较短,对其经济及环境效益进行定量评价涉及甚少,为其大面积推广提供理论依据,笔者以河南省南阳市的联户沼气工程为例,从建设投资成本、运行维护成本、效益及净现值4个方面与单户沼气进行对比分析,并以卧龙区1个行政村的联户沼气工程的调查数据为样本,选取11个环境影响综合评价指标,运用层次分析法,借助SPSS13.0软件,对联户沼气工程进行环境效益综合评估。结果表明：联户沼气与单户沼气相比,建设成本户均减少支出507元;服务费用每年每户多分摊54.76元;净现值前者为54720.41元,后者为4332.11元,规模经济效益显著,其指数为115%,有更广阔的发展前景。2007-2009各年的环境效益综合分值分别为6.126、6.156、5.816,联户沼气工程对环境的影响介于“比较大”和“非常大”之间。     

Analysis of the Moral Risk Model during Construction Process under Asymmetric Information

During construction process,there is a "principal-agent" relation between clients and constraints.Between the two parties,there exists moral risk under asymmetric information.This paper builds a "moral risk model" between clients and constraints during the construction process by applying "principal-agent theory" in the information economics theory.On the basis of quantitative analysis of the model,this paper draws some conclusions,which is benefitial to the enhancement of the level of project management.At last,this paper proposes some advice on reducing the moral hazard of the constraints.     

A Dynamic Grey Fuzzy Evaluation Method for Financing Risk in Freeway Project

There are many risks that influence freeway project financing and the influence of these risks differ by project stage. However, it is impossible to analyze the total risk of project financing objectively and accurately merely using the fuzzy or grey evaluation methods. These methods cannot reflect the dynamic characteristics of financing risks during freeway project construction. A dynamically grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was established and used to evaluate the financing risks of a freeway project. The results indicate that this method can not only make full use of the rich experience of the experts, but also reduce the influence of subjective factors. In addition, this method can reflect the dynamic characteristics of the financing risks during freeway project construction. Investors therefore can pertinently prevent and control financing risks based on the results of the evaluation of financing risks in every stage of the project. A demonstration shows that the method is suitable for comprehensive evaluation of financing risks of infrastructure projects such as freeways.     

土地整治重大项目社会稳定风险评估初探

构建土地整治重大项目社会稳定风险评估机制,对规范土地整治重大项目建设和土地整治相关管理具有重要的现实意义。本文立足重大项目的全生命周期管理要求,综合分析了土地整治重大项目社会稳定风险的内涵,提出了相应的风险评估过程,并采用PSR模型建立了风险评估体系。研究认为：（1）重大项目的社会稳定风险在项目的立项论证、建设实施和管护运营等阶段均能以不同形式存在,风险评估应根据项目各管理阶段的重点任务及特征,系统分析土地整治过程中可能存在的各类风险因素;（2）风险评估过程应包含风险调查、风险识别、风险评价及风险化解四个程序;（3）基于PSR模型的风险评估体系可反映出土地整治社会稳定风险的产生、传导、作用和控制过程,可为重大项目风险评估指标的选取提供逻辑框架。     

涡阳县高标准农田耕地质量等级评价研究

研究旨在为新建高标准农田耕地质量评定和验收提供参考.依据《耕地质量等级》(GB/T 33469-2016)标准,利用ArcGIS对安徽涡阳县新建高标准农田进行耕地质量等级评价,分析高标田建设前后的耕地质量等级变化情况以及耕地质量评价指标提升程度.结果 表明,涡阳县新建高标准农田平均耕地质量等级为3.17等,相较2019...     

乡村旅游开发类型综合评价研究

为了评价和分析新乡市乡村旅游开发现状及影响因素,构建乡村旅游开发类型综合评价体系,权衡不同开发模式的利弊,根据新乡市乡村旅游的特点,将其开发类型归纳为五类：乡村风景型、红色旅游型、现代新农村型、农业资源型和自然风光型,运用层次分析法和模糊评判法,从基础设施建设、旅游资源开发、旅游经营管理等三个准则层对其进行综合评价。结果表明,自然风光型乡村旅游产业综合评价值最高,为0.82（最高为1.00）。自然风光型城乡环境建设、自然资源开发、景区投资环境、企业年终效益、游客满意程度方面表现突出,较之其他旅游类型,新乡市应优先发展自然风光型乡村旅游产业。在评价指标体系构建中,企业年终效益所占权重最大,为13.1%,成为衡量景区可持续发展的重要指标。笔者使用的综合评价计算方法简化了指标的量化,在权重的估算中去除了人为赋值的主观性,是一种新颖的综合评价计算方法。     

高标准农田建设适宜性评价、效益评价及影响因素解析的研究方法综述

通过大量文献梳理,采用文献资料法、对比分析法、归纳总结法,重点围绕高标准农田建设背景与现状、建设适宜性评价、效益评价、影响因素解析4部分内容进行研究。对比分析当前研究中评价指标的设置方向以及研究方法在原理、优缺点及适用性等方面的差异性,最后进行整体总结与展望。结果表明,当前高标准农田建设工作已取得显著成效;在项目建设前的适宜性评价研究中,评价指标的设置更侧重于区域耕地的自然禀赋条件;在项目建设后的效益评价研究中,从早期注重经济效益评价逐渐发展为经济、社会、生态效益评价并重;在影响因素解析研究中,当前研究仍较为薄弱,对不同建设区域效益提升水平存在差异的解释仍较少。针对研究方法,未来研究应综合考量不同方法的优缺点及适用性。本研究能为科学推进高标准农田建设提供有益参考。     

Advance of Management Performance Evaluation in Petrochemical Engineering Construction Project

Toward the characteristics of petrochemical engineering construction project and the need of project management performance evaluation, this paper analyzed the status of project management performance evaluation study and the status of project management performance evaluation study in petrochemical engineering construction project. This paper suggested the direction of project management performance evaluation study in petrochemical engineering construction project, which is to establish the performance evaluation index system of petrochemical engineering construction project management and performance evaluation method, to establish process performance evaluation system of petrochemical engineering construction project management, to develop performance evaluation software of petrochemical engineering construction project management.     

城市森林林内景观评价指标筛选研究

为更好地开展城市森林景观研究,解决林内景观评价指标选择的问题,笔者在汇集整理森林景观评价指标初选集合的基础上,邀请城市森林专家对初选指标进行打分,然后应用灰色理论的灰色理论方法对其进行统计分析。研究表明：林内景观中乔木树形、灌木树形、主色彩等15个因子为景观评价的关键指标;同时,构建一套由形貌、色彩、结构和整体状况等4个构景因素组成的林内景观评价指标体系,以期为进一步科学评价森林景观打下基础。     

Early Warning of Risk for Transportation Infrastructure Projects under a PPP Model

Based on characteristics of transportation infrastructure projects under a PPP model, an early warning risk index system for the private sector was put forward. The system is comprised of 15 indexes from five aspects, including risks associated with politics and law, economics, credit, construction and operation. An early warning risk model was constructed by applying fuzzy set theory and matter element theory. The fuzzy set method helps calculate the weight and evaluation values for qualitative indexes, thereby avoiding the limitations of individual decisions. The matter element method can evaluate comprehensive risks by using the comprehensive relations, is easy to use, and directly gives results. Further empirical research was conducted that verifies this method is scientific and applicable.     

The Probability Risk Analysis of Bidding and Pricing for the Use of Land

In this paper by the probability method the effect of the undefinite indexes and the risk indexes on interior revenue rate(IRR) the main economic evaluation index in bidding and pricing of the use of land, is researched. The risk of the item is appreciated and the basis of bidding and pricing for the use of land is acquired. An example is presented.     

An Evaluation Attempt Based on Rational Investigation and Analysis - Taking Sanxia Plaza, Chongqing for Example

In this paper, an attempt of rational estimation is made, in which the authors evaluated a specified object by taking a given theory as basis, using some given methods, the given items about the object are studied and analyzed. The evaluation object in this paper is the Sanxia Plaza in Chongqing. The purpose is to promote the well development of specialty evaluation system.     

Uncertainty Analysisof Financial Evaluation of Investment Project and Its Application

The economy index used in investment project is usually influenced by many uncertain factors because the basic data of which comes from forecast and budget. This paper studies such common uncertain analysis method as balance analysis of profit and loss, sensitivity analysis. The problems in these methods are pointed out and a new method of uncertainty analysis based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Monte Carlo method is advanced, along with its compute method in economy analysis of investment project. To an investment project, the authors set the NPV as the goal, set investment amount, prosecution cost and product price as the simulant values, which have relatively great effect on NPV. By using the new method in uncertain analysis, the conclusion can be drawn that the project is greatly influenced by the uncertain factors of future and it has high risk. A case study demonstrates that the new method can synthetically analyze the financial variety caused by uncertain factors.     

Analysis of Project Audit''s Function and Civil Action

Audit takes a unique status and has obvious function in financial surveillance system.The Audit is used to superintend the factuality,validity and virtue of fiscal and financial income and expenses.In the renewed China Audit law the functions and status of official audit have been intensified,and the qualification and status of Audit department as executing office is confirmed.This paper analyzed the official construction project audit's function and legal status.