A century of transformation: fire regime transitions from 1919 to 2019 in southeastern British Columbia,Canada

Context

In fire-excluded forests across western North America, recent intense wildfire seasons starkly contrast with fire regimes of the past. The last 100 years mark a transition between pre-colonial and modern era fire regimes, providing crucial context for understanding future wildfire behavior.

Objectives

Using the greatest time depth of digitized fire events in Canada, we identify distinct phases of wildfire regimes from 1919 to 2019 by evaluating changes in mapped fire perimeters (>?20-ha) across the East Kootenay region (including the southern Rocky Mountain Trench), British Columbia.

Methods

We detect transitions in annual number of fires, burned area, and fire size; explore the role of lightning- and human-caused fires in driving these transitions; and quantify departures from historical fire frequency at the regional level.

Results

Relative to historical fire frequency, fire exclusion has created a significant fire deficit in active fire regimes, with a minimum of 1–10 fires missed across 46.4-percent of the landscape. Fire was active from 1919 to 1939 with frequent and large fire events, but the regime was already altered by a century of colonization. Fire activity decreased in 1940, coinciding with effective fire suppression influenced by a mild climatic period. In 2003, the combined effects of fire exclusion and accelerated climate change fueled a shift in fire regimes of various forest types, with increases in area burned and mean fire size driven by lightning.

Conclusions

The extent of fire regime disruption warrants significant management and policy attention to alter the current trajectory and facilitate better co-existence with wildfire throughout this century.

Graphical abstract

     

Landscape-scale controls over 20th century fire occurrence in two large Rocky Mountain (USA) wilderness areas

Topography, vegetation, and climate act together to determine thespatial patterns of fires at landscape scales. Knowledge oflandscape-fire-climate relations at these broad scales (1,000s hato 100,000s ha) is limited and is largely based on inferences andextrapolations from fire histories reconstructed from finer scales. In thisstudy, we used long time series of fire perimeter data (fire atlases) and datafor topography, vegetation, and climate to evaluate relationships between large20^thcentury fires and landscape characteristics in two contrastingareas: the 486,673-ha Gila/Aldo Leopold Wilderness Complex (GALWC)in New Mexico, USA, and the 785,090-ha Selway-BitterrootWilderness Complex (SBWC) in Idaho and Montana, USA. There were importantsimilarities and differences in gradients of topography, vegetation, andclimatefor areas with different fire frequencies, both within and between study areas.These unique and general relationships, when compared between study areas,highlight important characteristics of fire regimes in the Northern andSouthernRocky Mountains of the Western United States.Results suggest that amount and horizontal continuity of herbaceous fuels limitthe frequency and spread of surface fires in the GALWC, while the moisturestatus of large fuels and crown fuels limits the frequency of moderate-to-highseverity fires in the SBWC. These empirically described spatial and temporalrelationships between fire, landscape attributes, and climate increaseunderstanding of interactions among broad-scale ecosystem processes. Resultsalso provide a historical baseline for fire management planning over broadspatial and temporal scales in each wilderness complex.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Mixed-severity fire regime in a high-elevation forest of Grand Canyon,Arizona, USA

Fire regime characteristics of high-elevation forests on the North Rim of the Grand Canyon, Arizona, were reconstructed from fire scar analysis, remote sensing, tree age, and forest structure measurements, a first attempt at detailed reconstruction of the transition from surface to stand-replacing fire patterns in the Southwest. Tree densities and fire-/non-fire-initiated groups were highly mixed over the landscape, so distinct fire-created stands could not be delineated from satellite imagery or the oldest available aerial photos. Surface fires were common from 1700 to 1879 in the 4,400 ha site, especially on S and W aspects. Fire dates frequently coincided with fire dates measured at study sites at lower elevation, suggesting that pre-1880 fire sizes may have been very large. Large fires, those scarring 25% or more of the sample trees, were relatively infrequent, averaging 31 years between burns. Four of the five major regional fire years occurred in the 1700s, followed by a 94-year gap until 1879. Fires typically occurred in significantly dry years (Palmer Drought Stress Index), with severe drought in major regional fire years. Currently the forest is predominantly spruce-fir, mixed conifer, and aspen. In contrast, dendroecological reconstruction of past forest structure showed that the forest in 1880 was very open, corresponding closely with historical (1910) accounts of severe fires leaving partially denuded landscapes. Age structure and species composition were used to classify sampling points into fire-initiated and non-fire-initiated groups. Tree groups on nearly 60% of the plots were fire-initiated; the oldest such groups appeared to have originated after severe fires in 1782 or 1785. In 1880, all fire-initiated groups were less than 100 years old and nearly 25% of the groups were less than 20 years old. Non-fire-initiated groups were significantly older (oldest 262 years in 1880), dominated by ponderosa pine, Douglas-fir, or white fir, and occurred preferentially on S and W slopes. The mixed-severity fire regime, transitioning from lower-elevation surface fires to mixed surface and stand-replacing fire at higher elevations, appeared not to have been stable over the temporal and spatial scales of this study. Information about historical fire regime and forest structure is valuable for managers but the information is probably less specific and stable for high-elevation forests than for low-elevation ponderosa pine forests.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Anthropogenic influences on potential fire spread in a pyrogenic ecosystem of Florida, USA

Fire has historically been an important ecological factor maintaining southeastern U.S. vegetation. Humans have altered natural fire regimes by fragmenting fuels, introducing exotic species, and suppressing fires. Little is known about how these alterations specifically affect spatial fire extent and pattern. We applied historic (1920 and 1943) and current (1990) GIS fuels maps and the FARSITE fire spread model to quantify the differences between historic and current fire spread distributions. We held all fire modeling variables (wind speed and direction, cloud cover, precipitation, humidity, air temperature, fuel moistures, ignition source and location) constant with exception of the fuel models representing different time periods. Model simulations suggest that fires during the early 1900's burned freely across the landscape, while current fires are much smaller, restricted by anthropogenic influences. Fire extent declined linearly with patch density, and there was a quadratic relationship between fire extent and percent landscape covered by anthropogenic features. We found that as little as 10 percent anthropogenic landcover caused a 50 percent decline in fire extent. Most landscapes (conservation or non-conservation areas) are now influenced by anthropogenic features which disrupt spatial fire behavior disproportionately to their actual size. These results suggest that land managers using fire to restore or maintain natural ecosystem function in pyrogenic systems will have to compensate for anthropogenic influences in their burn planning. This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Spatial patterns of fire occurrence in Catalonia,NE, Spain

In this paper, we analyse spatial patterns of fire occurrence in Catalonia (NE Spain) during 1975–98. Fire scar maps, discriminated by means of 30–60 m resolution remote sensing imagery, have been used as a source of fire occurrence. We employ several visual or analytical approaches to interpret fire occurrence in this region, such as those of Minnich and Chou (1997), Ricotta et al. (2001) or Krummel et al. (1987). Crucial spatial patterns such as fire size distribution, fire frequency distribution, spots and residual vegetation islands are documented. In addition, several geographical layers were overlaid with burned area maps in order to determine interactions between fire occurrence and environmental parameters such as altitude, slope, solar radiation, and burned land cover. Assuming that fire occurrence is well determined by such a posteriori empirical factors we detect areas most prone to fire in this region and aim to enhance the local forest management and conservation plans.     

Interactions between fire and flooding in a southern African floodplain system (Okavango Delta, Botswana)

A series of 98 satellite images was analysed to reconstruct the fire and flood history of a floodplain system in southern Africa (Okavango Delta, Botswana). The data was used to investigate interactions between fire and flooding, and to determine the relevance of rainfall and flood-events for fire occurrences on floodplains and on drylands. The aims of the study are (1) to analyse and compare the fire frequency on floodplains and on adjacent drylands, (2) to investigate the influence of rainfall and flooding on the fire occurrence and (3) to determine correlations between fire frequency and flood frequency. The analyses show higher fire frequencies on floodplains than on drylands because of higher biomass production and fuel loads. The fire occurrence on drylands shows a correlation with annual rainfall events, while the fire frequency on floodplains is in principle determined by the flood frequency. Between floodplain types, clear differences in the susceptibility to fire where shown by analysing flood frequency vs. fire frequency. Here, the highest potential to burn was found for floodplains that get flooded about every second year. By calculating mean fire return intervals, the potential to burn could be specified for the different floodplain types.     

Long-term,landscape patterns of past fire events in a montane ponderosa pine forest of central Colorado

Parameters of fire regimes, including fire frequency, spatial extent of burned areas, fire severity, and season of fire occurrence, influence vegetation patterns over multiple scales. In this study, centuries-long patterns of fire events in a montane ponderosa pine – Douglas-fir forest landscape surrounding Cheesman Lake in central Colorado were reconstructed from fire-scarred trees and inferences from forest stand ages. We crossdated 153 fire-scarred trees from an approximately 4000 ha study area that recorded 77 total fire years from 1197 to the present. Spatial extent of burned areas during fire years varied from the scale of single trees or small clusters of trees to fires that burned across the entire landscape. Intervals between fire years varied from 1 to 29 years across the entire landscape to 3 to 58 years in one stand, to over 100 years in other stands. Large portions of the landscape did not record any fire for a 128 year-long period from 1723 to 1851. Fire severity varied from low-intensity surface fires to large-scale, stand-destroying fires, especially during the 1851 fire year but also possibly during other years. Fires occurred throughout tree growing seasons and both before and after growing seasons. These results suggest that the fire regime has varied considerably across the study area during the past several centuries. Since fires influence plant establishment and mortality on the landscape, these results further suggest that vegetation patterns changed at multiple scales during this period. The fire history from Cheesman Lake documents a greater range in fire behavior in ponderosa pine forests than generally has been found in previous studies.     

Modeling impacts of fire severity on successional trajectories and future fire behavior in Alaskan boreal forests

Much of the boreal forest in western North America and Alaska experiences frequent, stand-replacing wildfires. Secondary succession after fire initiates most forest stands and variations in fire characteristics can have strong effects on pathways of succession. Variations in surface fire severity that influence whether regenerating forests are dominated by coniferous or deciduous species can feedback to influence future fire behaviour because of differences in forest flammability. We used a landscape model of fire and forest dynamics to explore the effects of different scenarios of surface fire severity on subsequent forest succession and potential fire activity in interior Alaska. Model simulations indicated that high levels of surface fire severity leading to a prolonged phase of deciduous forest dominance caused a reduction in landscape flammability and fewer large fire events. Under low surface fire severity, larger patches of contiguous conifer forest promoted fire spread and resulted in landscapes with shorter fire return intervals compared to scenarios of high surface severity. Nevertheless, these negative feedbacks between fire severity, deciduous forest cover, and landscape flammability were unable to fully compensate for greater fire activity under scenarios of severe climate warming. Model simulations suggest that the effects of climate warming on fire activity in Alaska’s boreal forests may be partially but not completely mitigated by changes in fire severity that alter landscape patterns of forest composition and subsequent fire behaviour.     

Edge effects on fire spread in a disturbed Northern Wisconsin landscape

The effect of area-of-edge influence (AEI) on fire size and movement was simulated by considering the distribution of single and multiple edges in the Chequamegon-Nicolet National Forest in Northern Wisconsin, USA. Six hypothetical landscapes with different delineations of AEIs were created for simulating fire spread using FARSITE to evaluate the influence of edges on the rate and direction of fire spread. The burned area differed significantly among the six landscapes. In the three scenarios with buffered edges, the burned area increased by 35% with high loading fuel in AEIs, while it decreased by 21 and 46% with medium and low fuel loading in the AEIs, respectively, as compared to the no edge scenario. In two scenarios we delineated the area-of-multiple-edge influence (AMEI) and placed more than one high loading fuel within it. This increased the burned area by 5% from the high buffered edge scenario and by 40% from the control. When the depth-of-edge influence (DEI) was doubled to 60 m using AMEI with high fuels, the burned area increased by 20% from the high buffered edge scenario and by 60% from the control. We found that low and medium fuel loading slowed the fire spread and over time, caused the fire front to change direction. In high fuel loading scenarios, AEIs acted as corridors facilitating the fire spread by providing a contiguous patch of fuel which allowed fires to increase in size and pulled the fire front in the same direction.     

Precipitation,fire and demographic bottleneck dynamics in Serengeti tree populations

Tree size distributions are the outcome of demographic processes and disturbance events, and size distribution analysis provides a useful tool for understanding pattern and process in tree population dynamics. Demographic bottleneck mechanisms such as fire “traps” are important for driving tree cover dynamics in savanna systems, and bottlenecks might be expected to be revealed by bimodal size distributions in savanna tree communities. We tested the relative fit of monotonic and bimodal Weibull distributions to tree height distributions across 36 0.1-ha plots over 4 years in Serengeti National Park, Tanzania, using a Bayesian analysis. The plots were subjected to two fire treatments and spanned a mean annual rainfall gradient ranging from 600 to 900 mm year^?1. We found that Serengeti trees are highly bimodal in their height distributions, with a pronounced gap in the 1–3 m height range, suggesting that demographic bottlenecks are a pervasive feature of this system. We also found that pre- and post-bottleneck tree densities are increasing and declining over time, respectively. Pre-bottleneck density declined with fire and increased with mean annual precipitation, and exhibited a rainfall by fire interaction, with negative fire effects becoming more important at the wet extreme of our rainfall gradient. Overall, despite the negative effect of fire on pre-bottleneck trees, the density of the latter is increasing over time, suggesting that although recruitment into larger size classes has been tightly constrained in the past, there is mixed support for a role of fire in maintaining this pattern under current burning regimes.     

Landscape heterogeneity and fire behavior: scale-dependent feedback between fire and grazing processes

Fire and grazing are ecological processes that frequently interact to modify landscape patterns of vegetation. There is empirical and theoretical evidence that response of herbivores to heterogeneity is scale-dependent however the relationship between fire and scale of heterogeneity is not well defined. We examined the relationship between fire behavior and spatial scale (i.e., patch grain) of fuel heterogeneity. We created four heterogeneous landscapes modeled after those created by a fire–grazing interaction that differed in grain size of fuel patches. Fire spread was simulated through each model landscape from 80 independent, randomly located ignition points. Burn area, burn shape complexity and the proportion of area burnt by different fire types (headfire, backfire and flankfire) were all affected by the grain of fuel patch. The area fires burned in heterogeneous landscapes interacted with the fuel load present in the patch where ignition occurred. Burn complexity was greater in landscapes with small patch grain than in landscapes with large patch grain. The proportion of each fire type (backfire, flankfire and headfire) was similar among all landscapes regardless of patch grain but the variance of burned area within each of the three fire types differed among treatments of patch grain. Our landscape fire simulation supports the supposition that feedbacks between landscape patterns and ecological processes are scale-dependent, in this case spatial scale of fuel loading altering fire spread through the landscape.     

Simulating fire frequency and urban growth in southern California coastal shrublands,USA

Fire is an important natural disturbance in the Mediterranean-climate coastal shrublands of southern California. However, anthropogenic ignitions have increased fire frequency to the point that it threatens the persistence of some shrub species and favors the expansion of exotic annual grasses. Because human settlement is a primary driver of increased ignitions, we integrated a landscape model of disturbance and succession (LANDIS) with an urban growth model (UGM) to simulate the combined effects of urban development and high fire frequency on the distribution of coastal shrublands. We tested whether urban development would contribute to an expansion of the wildland-urban interface (WUI) and/or change in average fire return intervals and compared the relative impacts of direct habitat loss and altered fire regimes on functional vegetation types. We also evaluated two methods of integrating the simulation models. The development pattern predicted by the UGM was predominantly aggregated, which minimized the expansion of the WUI and increase in fire frequency, suggesting that fire risk may be higher at intermediate levels of urbanization due to the spatial arrangement of ignition sources and fuel. The comparison of model coupling methods illustrated how cumulative effects of repeated fires may occur gradually as urban development expands across the landscape. Coastal sage scrub species and resprouting chaparral were more susceptible to direct habitat loss, but increased fire frequency was more of a concern to obligate seeder species that germinate from a persistent seed bank. Simulating different scenarios of fire frequency and urban growth within one modeling framework can help managers locate areas of highest risk and determine which vegetation types are most vulnerable to direct habitat loss, altered fire regimes, or both.     

Predicting fire occurrence patterns with logistic regression in Heilongjiang Province, China

Prediction of forest fire ignition may aid in forest fire vigilance and monitoring, and in prioritizing forest fuel treatments. In this paper, we chose easily obtained spatial variables pertaining to topography, vegetation types, meteorological conditions, climate, and human activity to predict forest fire ignition in Heilongjiang province, China, using logistic regression. Results showed fire ignition prediction through logistic regression had good accuracy. Climatic variables (e.g., average annual mean temperature and precipitation) and meteorological conditions (e.g., daily minimum temperature, daily minimum humidity, daily mean humidity, and mean wind speed) are the main determinants of natural forest fires. In the case of anthropogenic fires, vegetation types and human activity as indicated by distances to roads and settlements combined with suitable meteorological conditions (e.g., daily mean humidity) are the main driving factors. The fire ignition probability map can be easily used to prioritize areas for vigilance, to make decisions on allocating firefighting resources, and to select vulnerable spots for forest fuel treatments. It was found that forest fuel treatments should be focused on the Great Xing’an Mountains.     

Some determinants of the spatio-temporal fire cycle in a mediterranean landscape (Corsica,France)

Based on recent needs to accurately understand fire regimes and post-fire vegetation resilience at a supra-level for carbon cycle studies, this article focusses on the coupled history of fire and vegetation pattern for 40 years on a fire-prone area in central Corsica (France). This area has been submitted since the beginning of the 20^th century to land abandonment and the remaining land management has been largely controlled by frequent fires. Our objectives were to rebuild vegetation and fire maps in order to determine the factors which have driven the spatial and temporal distribution of fires on the area, what were the feed backs on the vegetation dynamics, and the long-term consequences of this inter-relationship. The results show a stable but high frequency of small fires, coupled with forest expansion over the study period. The results particularly illustrate the spatial distribution of fires according to topography and vegetation, leading to a strong contrast between areas never burnt and areas which have been burnt up to 7 times. Fires, when occuring, affect on average 9 to 12% of the S, SE and SW facing slopes (compared to only 2 to 5% for the N facing slopes), spread recurrently over ridge tops, affect all the vegetation types but reburn preferentially shrublands and grasslands. As these fire-proning parameters have also been shown to decrease the regeneration capacity of forests, this study highlights the needs in spatial studies (both in terms of fire spread and vegetation dynamic) to accurately apprehend vegetation dynamic and functionning in fire-prone areas.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Historical patterns of fire severity and forest structure and composition in a landscape structured by frequent large fires: Pumice Plateau ecoregion,Oregon, USA

Context

Lack of quantitative observations of extent, frequency, and severity of large historical fires constrains awareness of departure of contemporary conditions from those that demonstrated resistance and resilience to frequent fire and recurring drought.

Objectives

Compare historical and contemporary fire and forest conditions for a dry forest landscape with few barriers to fire spread.

Methods

Quantify differences in (1) historical (1700–1918) and contemporary (1985–2015) fire extent, fire rotation, and stand-replacing fire and (2) historical (1914–1924) and contemporary (2012) forest structure and composition. Data include 85,750-ha tree-ring reconstruction of fire frequency and extent; >?375,000-ha timber inventory following >?78,900-ha fires in 1918; and remotely-sensed maps of contemporary fire effects and forest conditions.

Results

Historically, fires?>?20,000 ha occurred every 9.5 years; fire rotation was 14.9 years; seven fires?>?40,469 ha occurred during extreme drought (PDSI <?? 4.0); and stand-replacing fire occurred primarily in lodgepole (Pinus contorta var. murrayana). In contemporary fires, only 5% of the ecoregion burned in 30 years, and stand-replacing fire occurred primarily in ponderosa (Pinus ponderosa) and mixed-conifer. Historically, density of conifers?>?15 cm dbh exceeded 120 trees/ha on?<?5% of the area compared to 95% currently.

Conclusions

Frequent, large, low-severity fires historically maintained open-canopy ponderosa and mixed-conifer forests in which large fire- and drought-tolerant trees were prevalent. Stand-replacing patches in ponderosa and mixed-conifer were rare, even in fires >?40,469 ha (minimum size of contemporary “megafires”) during extreme drought. In this frequent-fire landscape, mixed-severity fire historically influenced lodgepole and adjacent forests. Lack of large, frequent, low-severity fires degrades contemporary forest ecosystems.

     

Variations in a regional fire regime related to vegetation type in San Diego County, California (USA)

This study considers variations in a regional fire regime that are related to vegetation structure. Using a Geographic Information System, the vegetation of San Diego County, Southern coastal California USA is divided into six generalized classes based on dominant plant form and include: herbaceous, sage scrub, chaparral, hardwood forest, conifer forest and desert. Mapped fire occurrences for the 20th century are then overlain to produce records of stand age, fire frequency and transitional stability for each of the vegetation classes. A ‘Manhattan’ similarity index is used to compare and group transition matrices for the six classes of vegetation. This analysis groups herbaceous, hardwood and conifer forests in one group, sage scrub and chaparral in a second, and desert in a third. In general, sage scrub and chaparral have burned more frequently than other vegetation types during the course of the 20^th century. Temporal trends suggest that the rate of burning in shrub-dominated vegetation is either stable (chaparral) or increasing (sage scrub), while the rate of burning in both hardwood and conifer forest is declining. This is consistent with a pattern of increased fire ignitions along the relatively low elevation urban-wildland interface, and an increase in the efficiency of fire suppression in high elevation forests. This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Scale-dependent determinants of heterogeneity in fire frequency in a coniferous boreal forest of eastern Canada

Despite the recognized importance of fire in North American boreal forests, the relative importance of stochastic and determinist portions of intra-regional spatial variability in fire frequency is still poorly understood. The first objective of this study is to identify sources of spatial variability in fire frequency in a landscape of eastern Quebec’s coniferous boreal forest. Broad-scale environmental factors considered included latitude, longitude, human activities and belonging to a given bioclimatic domain, whereas fine-scale factors included slope, position on the slope, aspect, elevation, surficial deposit and drainage. The average distance to waterbodies was also considered as a potential intermediate-scale source of variability in fire frequency. In order to assess these environmental factors’ potential influence, they were incorporated into a proportional hazard model, a semi-parametric form of survival analysis. We also used a digital elevation model in order to evaluate the dominant aspect within neighborhoods of varying sizes and successively incorporated these covariates into the proportional hazard model. We found that longitude significantly affects fire frequency, suggesting a maritime influence on fire frequency in this coastal landscape. We also found that position on the slope was related to fire frequency since hilltops and upperslopes were subject to a lower fire frequency. Dominant aspect was also related to fire frequency, but only when characterized within a neighborhood delimited by 4,000 to 10,000-m radii (5,027–31,416 ha). A 2–6-fold variation in fire frequency can be induced by geographic and topographic contexts, suggesting a substantial intra-regional heterogeneity in disturbance regime with potential consequences on forest dynamics and biodiversity patterns. Implications for forest management are also briefly discussed. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi: ) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Mapping the probability of large fire occurrence in northern Arizona, USA

In the southwestern U.S., wildland fire frequency and area burned have steadily increased in recent decades, a pattern attributable to multiple ignition sources. To examine contributing landscape factors and patterns related to the occurrence of large (⩾20 ha in extent) fires in the forested region of northern Arizona, we assembled a database of lightning- and human-caused fires for the period 1 April to 30 September, 1986–2000. At the landscape scale, we used a weights-of-evidence approach to model and map the probability of occurrence based on all fire types (n = 203), and lightning-caused fires alone (n = 136). In total, large fires burned 101,571 ha on our study area. Fires due to lightning were more frequent and extensive than those caused by humans, although human-caused fires burned large areas during the period of our analysis. For all fires, probability of occurrence was greatest in areas of high topographic roughness and lower road density. Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa)-dominated forest vegetation and mean annual precipitation were less important predictors. Our modeling results indicate that seasonal large fire events are a consequence of non-random patterns of occurrence, and that patterns generated by these events may affect the regional fire regime more extensively than previously thought. Identifying the factors that influence large fires will improve our ability to target resource protection efforts and manage fire risk at the landscape scale.     

Landscape dynamics in crown fire ecosystems

Crown fires create broad-scale patterns in vegetation by producing a patch mosaic of stand age classes, but the spread and behavior of crown fires also may be constrained by spatial patterns in terrain and fuels across the landscape. In this review, we address the implications of landscape heterogeneity for crown fire behavior and the ecological effects of crown fires over large areas. We suggest that fine-scale mechanisms of fire spread can be extrapolated to make broad-scale predictions of landscape pattern by coupling the knowledge obtained from mechanistic and empirical fire behavior models with spatially-explicit probabilistic models of fire spread. Climatic conditions exert a dominant control over crown fire behavior and spread, but topographic and physiographic features in the landscape and the spatial arrangement and types of fuels have a strong influence on fire spread, especially when burning conditions (e.g., fuel moisture and wind) are not extreme. General trends in crown fire regimes and stand age class distributions can be observed across continental, latitudinal, and elevational gradients. Crown fires are more frequent in regions having more frequent and/or severe droughts, and younger stands tend to dominate these landscapes. Landscapes dominated by crown fires appear to be nonequilibrium systems. This nonequilibrium condition presents a significant challenge to land managers, particularly when the implications of potential changes in the global climate are considered. Potential changes in the global climate may alter not only the frequency of crown fires but also their severity. Crown fires rarely consume the entire forest, and the spatial heterogeneity of burn severity patterns creates a wide range of local effects and is likely to influence plant reestablishment as well as many other ecological processes. Increased knowledge of ecological processes at regional scales and the effects of landscape pattern on fire dynamics should provide insight into our understanding of the behavior and consequences of crown fires.     

Using a stochastic model and cross-scale analysis to evaluate controls on historical low-severity fire regimes

Fire-scarred trees provide a deep temporal record of historical fire activity, but identifying the mechanisms therein that controlled landscape fire patterns is not straightforward. We use a spatially correlated metric for fire co-occurrence between pairs of trees (the Sørensen distance variogram), with output from a neutral model for fire history, to infer the relative strength of top-down vs. bottom-up controls on historical fire regimes. An inverse modeling procedure finds combinations of neutral-model parameters that produce Sørensen distance variograms with statistical properties similar to those observed from two landscapes in eastern Washington, USA, with contrasting topography. We find the most parsimonious model structure that is able to replicate the observed patterns and the parameters of this model provide surrogates for the predominance of top-down vs. bottom-up controls. Simulations with relatively low spread probability produce irregular fire perimeters and variograms similar to those from the topographically complex landscape. With higher spread probabilities fires exhibit regular perimeters and variograms similar to those from the simpler landscape. We demonstrate that cross-scale properties of the fire-scar record, even without historical fuels and weather data, document how complex topography creates strong bottom-up controls on fire spread. This control is weaker in simpler topography, and may be compromised in a future climate with more severe weather events.