柳州强对流天气的气候特征及环流背景分析

为了解柳州市强对流天气的气候特征及其发生的大气环流背景,提高强对流天气的预报准确率和防灾减灾服务,利用广西柳州市各气象观测站1951年以来的常规观测资料以及2005年以来的中尺度自动气象站资料,运用统计分析方法,对柳州市强对流天气的类型和气候特征进行分析。结果发现：柳州市的强对流天气主要有冰雹、雷雨大风和短历时强降水3类,冰雹主要发生在2—4月,其年代际变化呈单峰型,1970—1990年为冰雹高发期;雷雨大风年代际变化呈线性减少趋势,平均每10年约减少18.9次,1990年以前较多,1990年以后迅速减少;短历时强降水主要发生在汛期的4—9月,其年际变化趋势不明显。在统计分析的基础上,选取典型个例,利用NCEP再分析资料,分析各类强对流天气的环流形势特征,结果表明：冰雹发生前广西200hPa处于槽前西南急流中,500hPa处于槽前,850hPa贵州境内有低涡切变,柳州处于低涡东南部和西南急流左侧强烈辐合区中,地面一般有强烈的暖低压或低压倒槽发展;短历时强降水发生前广西地面一般处于锋前暖区中,多为暖区暴雨;雷雨大风则主要有副高边缘型、低槽冷锋型和低槽+副高边缘型3类。     

“4.23”特强沙尘暴天气成因分析

为了研究河西走廊特强沙尘暴发生发展机制,利用常规气象资料和美国NECP/NCAR提供的1°×1° 6 h 1次的再分析资料,对2014年4月23—24日发生在甘肃省河西走廊的强沙尘暴天气从气候背景、天气形势、强沙尘暴过程近地面气象要素特征及相关物理量场等方面进行分析。结果表明：强冷空气活动是沙尘暴天气发生的重要原因,沙尘暴天气的发生伴随着地面剧烈降温、气压涌升、风速急增。沙尘暴发生时从低层到高层出现一致的上升运动,垂直上升速度有强到弱的变化与本次沙尘暴从爆发到衰亡的发展过程有很好的对应关系;高空急流中心向低层有明显传播,高空急流核下降是动量下传的重要标志,垂直螺旋度存在着明显的上负下正的特征。沙尘暴发生前,近地层存在逆温层,有利于干对流产生。     

次级环流在两次辽宁沿海大风过程中的作用分析

环黄渤海地区经济发展迅速,同时灾害性天气频发,灾害性大风天气对于沿海地区的交通运输、渔业等造成了严重的影响。所以,提高沿海大风的预报能力,对于减少或避免经济损失和人员伤亡具有非常重要的意义。通过分析2012年8月28日（台风“布拉万”）和2009年2月13日辽宁沿海地区两次大风天气过程中次级环流的作用,发现：（1）急流次级环流下沉支所在区域是地面大风加强的区域,为预报大风落区提供了理论依据;（2）垂直速度引发的动力次级环流的强弱变化对地面大风的强弱变化有明显的指示作用;大风过程中的成对的垂直速度中心的阶梯状分布有利于高空动量下传,对地面大风有促进作用;（3）热力次级环流对地面大风也有一定的影响,但是不能对大风的形成起到决定性作用。     

高低空急流耦合对内蒙古东部持续性暴雨的触发作用

为了研究内蒙古东部地区暴雨特征,防范暴雨引发的洪涝灾害对农业产生的影响,利用NCEP/ NCAR再分析资料、常规观测资料,对2011年7月24日—28日内蒙古东部地区持续4天暴雨天气过程进行分析和总结。结果表明：（1）此次暴雨天气过程是在鄂霍茨克海阻塞高压坝阻挡华北低槽东移形成的稳定大尺度环流背景下,伴随副热带西风锋区高低空急流耦合作用共同产生的;（2）200 hPa高空急流与850 hPa偏南低空急流的长时间维持和稳定配置产生的耦合作用,为内蒙古东部地区持续暴雨天气的形成提供了有利的动力和热力条件,触发了暴雨天气。     

湘桂走廊白背飞虱早期虫源及灾变大气背景

为阐明湘桂走廊白背飞虱早期虫源及大气背景在其北迁过程中的影响,利用HYSPLIT软件模拟白背飞虱灾变性迁入高峰期、始见期后向轨迹,分别从个性及共性角度,分析湘桂走廊白背飞虱主要虫源地及其灾变大气背景。结果表明：（1）1991—2014年湘桂走廊白背飞虱的迁入始见期、首次迁入高峰期分别为0.9 d/10 a、1.6 d/10 a;（2）西南路径是湘桂走廊白背飞虱初始虫源迁入的主要路径,永福站、兴安站和全州站虫源西南路径占比分别为54%、50%、72%;（3）中南半岛白背飞虱借助微弱上升气流完成起飞,850 hPa高度上的强劲的西南气流、丰富的水汽条件有利于其北迁,降水是白背飞虱降落的重要大气动力机制。研究结果为白背飞虱的异地监测及科学防治提供科学依据。     

山东省11月份大范围回流暴雪特征分析

回流暴雪是山东省秋冬季重要的灾害性天气之一,为加强对这类灾害性天气的分析研究,提升预报能力和水平,笔者利用常规气象观测资料,对2000年以来山东省11月份发生的回流暴雪天气过程进行了环流形势、中尺度特征及热力、动力诊断分析。结果表明,这期间的回流暴雪均存在雨雪相态转换,925 hPa以下的温度对降水相态有明确的指示意义;此类天气的概念模型是500 hPa和700 hPa在河套地区或东部是低槽,低层850 hPa从西南伸向山东的切变线,地面为西北-东南向的高压控制,直接影响系统包括：低槽、切变线和低空急流;大气湿度层深厚,到达对流层中层或更高;探空分析所有过程均存在逆温,这也是回流降雪的重要特征;在低层水汽通量散度场有强辐合,θse的低值区一直伸到中原腹地,在大气中高层出现对流性不稳定;散度场从下向上辐合辐散交替叠置,垂直速度场表现为从低空到对流层顶均是上升运动的特征。     

沙尘天气下大气电场与颗粒物关系研究

大气电场对各种气象要素的变化有着敏锐的反应,对一个地区大气电场特征的研究,有助于分析各种相关的天气过程,对该地区气候特征的研究也有重要意义。本文给出了太原地区3次沙尘天气下2个气象站内大气电场与大气颗粒物以及风速、湿度等气象要素相关性进行分析。结果表明,沙尘与晴天天气的大气电场有较大的差别,当沙尘到来后,大气电场值迅速下降,并且始终保持为较大的负值;沙尘天气下大气电场、PM10、PM2.5都发生剧烈的变化,PM1.0变化相对较小,其中沙尘天气下大气电场的绝对值、PM10、PM2.5分别比晴天天气下的值高3.94~5.74、2.07.94~5.89、1.28~5.91倍,沙尘天气下的PM1.0比晴天降低0.25~0.75倍）。不同粒径颗粒物的起电机理以及颗粒物来源不同导致颗粒物与大气电场的相关性不同,其中PM10、PM2.5呈较高的正相关,PM1.0呈负相关,且相关性较低。由于郊区站与城市站的下垫面不同,较大的风速将郊区站地表较大粗粒子吹起,使得郊区站沙尘大气电场在一些时段内会出现正值。     

二代粘虫发生趋势预报

<正>今年一代粘虫在江淮和黄淮麦区发生面积大,局部区域虫量高,经有效防治后各地残虫密度普遍较低;5月底始,河南、山东、河北部分监测点见蛾峰,华北和东北部分地区始见卵和低龄幼虫,累计诱蛾量和虫卵量明显低于前两年。结合天气条件和作物种植情况,预计今年二代粘虫总体为中等发生,山西大部、山东东部、内蒙古东北部、辽宁中西部、吉林西南部、黑龙江中南部等局部地区有重发可能,雨水丰沛地区管理粗放、低洼田块可出现高密度虫量集中危害现象;预计     

渤海西岸一次副热带高压边缘暴雨特征分析

为探究夏季西太平洋副热带高压边缘暴雨特征,改进暴雨天气预报模型和可预报因子,提高暴雨预报准确率。利用micaps、高低空风场、T639L60 物理量资料,对2010 年8 月4—5 日发生在渤海西岸的暴雨天气过程的环流形势、高低空急流、垂直速度、相对湿度特征进行分析。结果表明：副热带高压、西风槽和中低层切变线以及地面气旋是造成此次暴雨天气过程的影响系统,高空冷空气和低空暖湿空气在渤海西岸地区交汇触发了此次天气过程;高层辐散、低层辐合为空气上升运动提供了有力的动力条件,中低层的西南风急流和近地面层持续的偏东风为降水区提供了充沛的水汽;此次暴雨出现在副高588 dagpm 等值线与584 dagpm 等值线之间中低层存在切变线的位置和200 hPa 高空急流入口处的右侧、850 hPa 低空急流的左侧所对应区域;高低空急流增强、上干下湿的对流不稳定层结发展、空气上升运动增强、高层有干冷空气侵入、低层有较强暖湿空气输送预示将出现强降水天气;高低空急流减弱消失、低层暖湿空气输送减弱消失及干冷空气侵入低层预示强降水将减弱停止。     

贵州2012 年7 月中旬两次强降水过程对比分析

2012年7月中旬贵州遭受区域性强降水,利用NCEP/NCAR逐6 h 1o×1o再分析资料、常规气象观测资料和地面加密观测资料,分为两阶段从影响系统和形成机制方面进行对比诊断分析。结果表明：第一阶段影响系统主要有高空槽、中低层切变线和低空急流,地面辐合线是强降水的主导因素,属于对流性降水天气,第二阶段主要受高空系统（高空槽和低涡）影响,对流性和稳定性降水并存;水汽通量辐合中心及强弱能很好的指示强降水落区,大气不稳定更易造成短时强对流天气,中低层气旋性涡度和高层反气旋性涡度的配置更有利于强降水的发生。     

辽宁省初霜特征及预报技术指标初探

选取辽宁省秋季地面最低气温≤0℃的初日作为初霜日期,使用1961—2010年辽宁省14个测站初霜日期资料,分析初霜的时空分布规律。结果表明,自9月中下旬开始,辽宁省自西北、东北开始向南出现初霜,初霜出现日期,山区比平原地区早,沿海地区较晚,大连地区最晚。随着年代的变化,初霜出现日期整体呈推迟趋势。利用历史天气图资料,对近50年辽宁省初霜的天气特征进行分析,研究初霜出现前24 h的环流形势特征,总结初霜预报技术指标,规范预报业务流程,为实时预报业务提供参考。     

保定市无霜期的气候特征分析

为了充分了解保定地区无霜期的气候特征,为农业气象服务提供可靠依据,利用保定市13个气象站的观测资料,详细分析保定市近50多年霜的分布特征和变化趋势。结果表明：保定市初终霜日、无霜期的分布具有明显的地域特征,西北部山区的终霜日期明显晚于平原地区,初霜日期明显早于平原地区。保定各地的无霜期长度相差很大,顺平无霜期最长,为194天,西北部山区的涞源无霜期最短,只有139天,二者相差达55天。保定绝大多数站点终霜日提前,初霜日推迟,无霜期增长,涞源无霜期增长趋势比平原更加明显,气候倾向率达5.84 d/10 a。保定地区平均无霜期增长率3.98 d/10 a,是终霜日提前、初霜日延后共同作用的结果,而终霜日提前对无霜期增长的贡献更大些。     

播种期对玉米外观品质和营养品质的效应研究

为了研究播种期对玉米外观品质和营养品质的影响,分析这两类品质之间的相关性,探讨利用外观品质预测营养品质的可能性。在黄土高原山西省春播中晚熟玉米生态区田间自然条件下,以‘强盛49’和‘屯玉6号’为材料,借助现代图像处理技术获取外观品质,借助现代近红外技术获取营养品质。结果表明：播种期明显影响了玉米的外观品质,适期（第3期）播种的籽粒饱满度指数最高,提前或者推迟的时间越长,饱满度越差;容重的播期主效显著,呈单峰曲线,峰值出现在第4期;物质密度主要受品种影响。玉米营养品质受播种期的影响强烈,适期（第3期）播种的蛋白质含量明显高于其他播期;‘强盛49’的淀粉随播期出现递增趋势;‘强盛49’前3期播种的脂肪含量高于后3期,‘屯玉6号’变幅更大,但是却没有明显规律。粒长、籽粒面积、矩形度和单粒重与淀粉含量呈显著负相关;矩形度与脂肪含量呈极显著正相关。蛋白质含量与淀粉含量呈极显著负相关,与脂肪含量呈极显著正相关。因此,要想获得较高的籽粒品质,可以通过调节播期来实现。     

Corn Genotypic Variation Effects on Seedling Emergence and Leaf Appearance for Short-Season Areas

Identifying corn ( Zea mays L.) genotypes with faster rates of seedling emergence and leaf appearance is important in developing a corn crop with earlier canopy closure and better seasonal light interception. A greenhouse experiment was conducted twice to investigate whether corn genotypes known to vary in canopy architecture and yield potential differed in rates of seedling emergence and leaf appearance. The experiment was arranged in a randomized complete block design utilizing seven genotypes: five of the newly developed Leafy reduced-stature (LRS) types (LRS1, LRS2, LRS3, LRS4 and LRS5), one conventional type [Pioneer 3979 (P3979)], and one late-maturing big-leaf (LMBL) type. Five seeds were planted in each pot and seedling emergence was recorded every day until all seeds emerged. Leaf appearance was recorded from seedling emergence until the plants reached anthesis. There was variability among the genotypes for both seedling emergence and leaf appearance rate. Mean seedling emergence values of greater than 90 % were achieved by four of the five LRS genotypes, and the LRS types generally emerged more rapidly than the others. Leaf appearance rate showed linear increases over time; however, LRS genotypes (in particular LRS3, LRS4 and LRS5) had more rapid leaf appearance rates than the others. The LMBL hybrid ranked last for both seedling emergence (<80 %) and leaf appearance rate. Rapid seedling emergence and leaf appearance by early-maturing genotypes (LRS and P3979, especially LRS) may help these types of genotypes achieve earlier canopy closure and better use of the light available during the growing season, which is critical in a short growing season environment.     

Components of Visual Selection in Early Clonal Generations of a Potato Breeding Programme

In the first two clonal generations of a potato breeding programme, clones are visually selected for ‘plant appearance’. Selection for plant appearance based on unreplicated small plots is unreliable, due to significant genotype × environment interaction and high error variance. In order to improve the selection efficiency, component traits of plant appearance were identified and the effect of selection for these components was studied. Tuber yield was found to be the principal component of plant appearance while stolon length and tuber appearance contributed significantly, but to a lesser extent. Tuber yield had a higher heritability than plant appearance. Characters determining the appearance of stolons and tubers were found to have equal or lower heritabilities than plant appearance at 80 days after planting and somewhat higher heritabilities than plant appearance at 145 days after planting. Hence, since the expected and observed selection responses of the component characters have been found to be equivalent to that of plant appearance, selection for plant appearance cannot be improved upon by separately selecting for characters like tuber yield and tuber appearance.     

烟叶外观质量与内在品质的相关性研究

为探索烟叶外观品质因素与其主要化学成分和感官评吸质量的关系,采集贵州中烟基地单元特色烟叶样品96份,进行烟叶外观质量和感官评吸鉴定,并测定其主要化学成分。通过对烟叶样品外观品质指标及内在质量关系进行研究,分析烟叶外观指标初步量化后的外观总体质量状况,及烟叶质量评价指标间的定量相关关系。结果表明：产区间烟叶品质指标相互关系表现各有不同,贵州省内、盐源、永安各地烟叶的外观指标间均存在较明显的相互关系,其中部位、颜色、油分、色度指标与其他外观指标相关关系较强;省内烟叶外观的结构指标与其他外观指标呈现显著的相关关系,盐源和永安烟叶外观的结构指标与其他外观指标关系则不明显。     

山东省小麦气象灾害风险评估模型群研发

为了探寻影响山东省小麦生产的气象风险因子,并探索小麦相对气象产量与气象致灾风险因子的关系,通过采集山东省典型小麦生态区120个监测网点,自1980年至2009年的小麦产量与气候致灾风险数据,采用统计分析方法,对导致小麦减产的气象风险因子以及相对气象产量进行相关和回归分析,确立了导致山东省小麦冷冻害、干旱和干热风等灾害的气象风险因子,建立了山东省小麦气象灾害风险评估模型群,并利用计算机技术进行系统开发,对山东省小麦生产当中遇到的气象因子进行分析,预测是否存在气象灾害,并进行风险评估。该系统为政府部门指导农业生产和制定农业保险费率、保费补贴、粮食最低保护价、农业直补标准等政策提供决策依据。     

辽宁省玉米适宜播种期的热量资源分析

适宜的播期是实现作物高产的必要条件。本研究基于辽宁省40个气象站历史气候数据,从玉米成熟所需的热量资源角度出发,提出了一种确定玉米最迟播种期的方法,通过对玉米播种开始日期、最迟播种期的计算,对30年（1971-2000年）玉米播期的时间变化特征和空间分布差异进行了分析。结果表明：辽宁省大部地区玉米播种的开始日期在4月中旬末至4月下旬。30年中,玉米播种开始日期全省总体的变化趋势不明显,仅辽东和辽北地区玉米播种的开始日期有提前趋势,约每10年提前2天左右。30年中辽宁各地初霜冻日均表现出延迟的趋势,全省平均变化趋势为1.6 d?10a-1。各地玉米的最迟播种期均在5月上旬末至5月中旬初,初霜冻日的推迟加之气候变暖趋势使得玉米最迟播期的气候倾向率为4.0-5.0 d?10a-1。本研究给出了辽宁省各县（市）适播品种、适宜播种的时段分布并提出了适宜播种期确定的建议,以期为农业生产提供一定的参考。     

黔西南州烟叶外观质量分析

为开发黔西南地方特色烟叶,为卷烟工业提供优质的原料,2000-2006年我州通过项目实施,对烟叶外观质量进行了分析。结果表明: 黔西南烟叶总体外观质量较好,烟叶颜色各县均在桔黄范围,成熟度较好,结构疏松、身份适中,油份有、色度强。此研究为我州烟叶可持续发展提供了理论依据。     

Improvement of Appearance Traits of elite Rice Zhenshan 97B by Molecular Introgression of Targeted about 800 kb Interval from Indica Rice Jiafuzhan Genome

Rice appearance trait is mainly mean grain length (GL), grain width (GW), ratio of length and width (L/W), chalkiness (CH) and transparence (TR). Appearance is the first impression, and rice appearance traits effect significantly the value of commodity. Hybrid rice is relatively low quality, especially on rice appearance quality,which restricts partially its extend and badly export of hybrid seed and rice in China.Shanyou 63, the most famous hybrid rice combination of China, could not be also sustainable application because of its poor qualities. In this studies, We attempt to improve appearance quality of the elite rice maintainer of Zhenshan 97B by using molecular approach of genomic interval targeted introgression. Three F2 populations were constructed to study the classical and molecular genetic of rice appearance traits, at the same time, molecular marker-asisted toimprove the main maintainer line, Zhenshan 97B were performed. There some following results:Three F2 populations were constructed based on crosses of Guangluai 4×Jiafuzhan (GJ popu.), Minghui 86×Jiafuzhan (MJ popu.) and Zhenshan 97B×Jiafuzhan (ZJ popu.). ZJ popu and GJ popu were produced to reconstruct the linkage maps related with rice appearance traits based on BSA, and detect QTL of target traits based on IM.In ZJ popu, 9 QTLs of target traits were detected. The interval, RM169～RM516 on Chromosome 5, was genetic locus of GW, L/W, CH and BW, and the explained variances were 10.9%, 14.9%, 12.0% and 14.2%, respectively.RM214 on chromosome 7, RM339 on chromosome 8 were genetic loci if CH and BW, and the explained variances were 9.4%, 10.0%, 11.0% and 12.1%. besides there is a genetic locus, RM347, of G/W on chromosome 3, and the explained varance was 10.3%. In GJ popu, 5 QTLs of rice appearance traits were detected. The interval, RM169-RM516 on Chromosome 5, were also the genetic loci of GW, CH and BW, and the explained variances were 9.0%, 12.5%, and 13.6%, respectively. RM264～RM80 on chromosome 8 was the genetic loci of GW amd L/W,and the explained variances were 14.7% and 13.4%. The genotypes of all QTLs, except RM214, from Jiafuzhan contributed to improving riee appearance traits.The research was to improve the rice appearance quality of Zhenshan 97B by introgressing QTLs of rice appearance traits from Jiafuzhan, a donor parent, by means of MAS in the process of recurrent backcrossing, 4 SSR markers were used to detect the target genotypes from donor parent, and 70 SSR primers to identify the genetic background of recurrent parent. Consequently, there were 19 target individuals in BC3, in which the mean value of GL, GW, L/W, CH and BW were 6.06±0.04mm, 2.50±0.02mm, 2.43±0.02, 29.5±2.7 and 29.4±2.7%, respectively,and the mean homologous degree (HD) to recurrent parent is up to 98.22%. Compared to Zhenshan 97B, GL, CH and BW decreased 0.17 mm, 34.9% and 34.5% respectively and however L/W increased 0.19. which accounted separately for 25.37%, 54.79%, 54.57% and 10.50% of thedifference of every trait between two parents. It is very luckly to find a individual, 13BC2-3BC3 line, whose GL, GW, G/W, CH and BW were 6.04 mm, 2.43 mm, 2.49,2.5% and 2.5% separately, There is very important signification for it to be used in hybrid rice breeding improving appearance traits. In the research, MAS efficiency of 3 loci (with 4 markers ) was 5.68% and coincident degree was 73.08%.