Driving forces of landscape change - current and new directions

The concept of driving forces is gaining increasing attention in landscape-change research. We summarize the state of the art of this field and present new conceptual and methodological directions for the study of driving forces of landscape changes. These new directions address four major challenges faced by landscape-change studies, i.e., studying processes and not merely spatial patterns, extrapolating results in space and time, linking data of different qualities, and considering culture as a driver of landscape change. The proposed research directions include: studying landscape change across borders and transects, focusing on persistence as well as change, investigating rates of change, considering attractors of landscape change, targeting correlation and causality, and searching for precursors of landscape change. Based on established knowledge and the new approaches we outline a standard procedure to study driving forces of landscape change. We anticipate that our analytical and systematic approach increases the relevance of studies of landscape change for science as well as for the solution of real world problems.     

The recent landscape history of Limpach valley, Switzerland: considering three empirical hypotheses on driving forces of landscape change

Understanding global landscape dynamics is a core challenge for the newly emerged field of land change science. Such an understanding requires insights into general pattern of landscape changes and the related driving forces. Many case studies of landscape change exist, but only few attempts have been made, to synthesize the results and to search for general pattern. We suggest that applying hypotheses on driving forces of landscape change derived from one case study in another region as a promising way to advance towards a more integrative view on landscape dynamics. Based on the conclusions drawn in a case study conducted in Godmanchester (Quebec, Canada; Domon and Bouchard 2007), we formulated three hypotheses and discussed them in a case study on landscape change in the Limpach valley, Switzerland. We confirm the importance of geomorphological characteristics for landscape development (hypothesis 1) and our analysis also supports the second hypothesis, which states that changes in demand for certain resources result in landscape change. However, we suggest replacing the term resources by the more encompassing concept of goods and services. The third hypothesis, which states that technological transformations stand at the beginning of landscape change, also was confirmed. Technologies have to be affordable, socially accepted, and corresponding to a demand, to be implemented on a large scale. This will cause a technological transformation, which then—depending on the specifics of the technology applied—becomes relevant for landscape development. We conclude with three reworded hypotheses on driving forces of landscape change and we hope that they will be tested and further developed in other case studies.     

Land-use and land-cover dynamics in response to changes in climatic,biological and socio-political forces: the case of southwestern Ethiopia

Few studies of land-use/land-cover change provide an integrated assessment of the driving forces and consequences of that change, particularly in Africa. Our objectives were to determine how driving forces at different scales change over time, how these forces affect the dynamics and patterns of land use/land cover, and how land-use/land-cover change affects ecological properties at the landscape scale. To accomplish these objectives, we first developed a way to identify the causes and consequences of change at a landscape scale by integrating tools from ecology and the social sciences and then applied these methods to a case study in Ghibe Valley, southwestern Ethiopia. Maps of land-use/land-cover change were created from aerial photography and Landsat TM imagery for the period, 1957–1993. A method called `ecological time lines' was developed to elicit landscape-scale explanations for changes from long-term residents. Cropland expanded at twice the speed recently (1987–1993) than two decades ago (1957–1973), but also contracted rapidly between 1973–1987. Rapid land-use/land cover change was caused by the combined effects of drought and migration, changes in settlement and land tenure policy, and changes in the severity of the livestock disease, trypanosomosis, which is transmitted by the tsetse fly. The scale of the causes and consequences of land-use/land-cover change varied from local to sub-national (regional) to international and the links between causes and consequences crossed scales. At the landscape scale, each cause affected the location and pattern of land use/land cover differently. The contraction of cropland increased grass biomass and cover, woody plant cover, the frequency and extent of savanna burning, and the abundance of wildlife. With recent control of the tsetse fly, these ecological changes are being reversed. These complex patterns are discussed in the context of scaling issues and current conceptual models of land-use/land-cover change.     

Processes and driving forces in changing cultural landscapes across Europe

Context

Cultural landscapes evolve over time. However, the rate and direction of change might not be in line with societal needs and more information on the forces driving these changes are therefore needed.

Objectives

Filling the gap between single case studies and meta-analyses, we present a comparative study of landscape changes and their driving forces based in six regions across Europe conducted using a consistent method.

Methods

A LULC analysis based on historical and contemporary maps from the nineteenth and twentieth century was combined with oral history interviews to learn more about perceived landscape changes, and remembered driving forces. Land cover and landscape changes were analysed regarding change, conversions and processes. For all case study areas, narratives on mapped land cover change, perceived landscape changes and driving forces were compiled.

Results

Despite a very high diversity in extent, direction and rates of change, a few dominant processes and widespread factors driving the changes could be identified in the six case study areas, i.e. access and infrastructure, political shifts, labor market, technological innovations, and for the more recent period climate change.

Conclusions

Grasping peoples’ perception supplements the analyses of mapped land use and land cover changes and allows to address perceived landscape changes. The list of driving forces determined to be most relevant shows clear limits in predictability: Whereas changes triggered by infrastructural developments might be comparatively easy to model, political developments cannot be foreseen but might, nevertheless, leave major marks in the landscape.

     

Scenarios of long-term farm structural change for application in climate change impact assessment

Towards 2050, climate change is one of the possible drivers that will change the farming landscape, but market, policy and technological development may be at least equally important. In the last decade, many studies assessed impacts of climate change and specific adaptation strategies. However, adaptation to climate change must be considered in the context of other driving forces that will cause farms of the future to look differently from today’s farms. In this paper we use a historical analysis of the influence of different drivers on farm structure, complemented with literature and stakeholder consultations, to assess future structural change of farms in a region under different plausible futures. As climate change is one of the drivers considered, this study thus puts climate change impact and adaptation into the context of other drivers. The province of Flevoland in the north of The Netherlands was used as case study, with arable farming as the main activity. To account for the heterogeneity of farms and to indicate possible directions of farm structural change, a farm typology was developed. Trends in past developments in farm types were analyzed with data from the Dutch agricultural census. The historical analysis allowed to detect the relative importance of driving forces that contributed to farm structural changes. Simultaneously, scenario assumptions about changes in these driving forces elaborated at global and European levels, were downscaled for Flevoland, to regional and farm type level in order to project impacts of drivers on farm structural change towards 2050. Input from stakeholders was also used to detail the downscaled scenarios and to derive historical and future relationships between drivers and farm structural change. These downscaled scenarios and future driver-farm structural change relationships were used to derive quantitative estimations of farm structural change at regional and farm type level in Flevoland. In addition, stakeholder input was used to also derive images of future farms in Flevoland. The estimated farm structural changes differed substantially between the two scenarios. Our estimations of farm structural change provide a proper context for assessing impacts of and adaptation to climate change in 2050 at crop and farm level.     

Twenty-five years into “our common future”: are we heading in the right direction?

For a quarter of a century, sustainable development has been on the political and research agendas. Within the field of landscape ecology, a wide array of research has documented the effects of alternative land uses, analysed driving forces of land use change and developed tools for measuring such changes, to mention but a few developments. There have also been great advances in technology and data management. Nevertheless, unsustainable land use continues to occur and the science of landscape ecology has had less influence on landscape change than aimed for. In this paper we use Norwegian examples to discuss some of the reasons for this. We examine mismatches in the spatial and temporal scales considered by scientists, decision-makers and those who carry out land use change, consider how this and other factors hinder effective communication between scientists and practitioners, and urge for a stronger focus on what it is that motivates people to action. We suggest that the concept of landscape services can be useful not only for researchers but also provide valuable communication and planning tools. Finally, we suggest more emphasis on applying adaptive management in landscape ecology to help close the gaps, both between researchers and policy and, even more crucially, between researchers and practitioners.     

Changing landscapes to accommodate for climate change impacts: a call for landscape ecology

Predictions of climate change suggest major changes in temperature, rainfall as well as in frequency and timing of extreme weather, all in varying degrees and patterns around the world. Although the details of these patterns changes are still uncertain, we can be sure of profound effects on ecological processes in and functioning of landscapes. The impact of climate change will affect all types of land use, ecosystem services, as well as the behavior of humans. The core business of Landscape Ecology is the interaction of landscape patterns and processes. Most of these interactions will be affected by changing climate patterns, so clearly within the focus of our science. Nevertheless, climate change received little attention from landscape ecologists. Are we missing the boat? Why is it that our science does not contribute to building a knowledge base to help solving this immense problem? Why is there so little attention paid to adaptation of landscape to climate change? With this editorial article IALE would like to receive inputs from the Landscape Ecology scientific community in related research on adaptation of landscapes to climate change, on tools or approaches to help landscape planners and stakeholders to this new challenge where landscape ecology can play a key role.     

Combining farmers’ decision rules and landscape stochastic regularities for landscape modelling

Landscape spatial organization (LSO) strongly impacts many environmental issues. Modelling agricultural landscapes and describing meaningful landscape patterns are thus regarded as key-issues for designing sustainable landscapes. Agricultural landscapes are mostly designed by farmers. Their decisions dealing with crop choices and crop allocation to land can be generic and result in landscape regularities, which determine LSO. This paper comes within the emerging discipline called “landscape agronomy”, aiming at studying the organization of farming practices at the landscape scale. We here aim at articulating the farm and the landscape scales for landscape modelling. To do so, we develop an original approach consisting in the combination of two methods used separately so far: the identification of explicit farmer decision rules through on-farm surveys methods and the identification of landscape stochastic regularities through data-mining. We applied this approach to the Niort plain landscape in France. Results show that generic farmer decision rules dealing with sunflower or maize area and location within landscapes are consistent with spatiotemporal regularities identified at the landscape scale. It results in a segmentation of the landscape, based on both its spatial and temporal organization and partly explained by generic farmer decision rules. This consistency between results points out that the two modelling methods aid one another for land-use modelling at landscape scale and for understanding the driving forces of its spatial organization. Despite some remaining challenges, our study in landscape agronomy accounts for both spatial and temporal dimensions of crop allocation: it allows the drawing of new spatial patterns coherent with land-use dynamics at the landscape scale, which improves the links to the scale of ecological processes and therefore contributes to landscape ecology.     

Analysis of landscape pattern change trajectories within areas of intensive agricultural use: case study in a watershed of southern Québec, Canada

This study aimed at capturing the spatial variability of landscape patterns and their trajectories of change from 1950 to 2000 within a watershed, which is representative of areas of intensive agricultural use. After an analysis of landscape features changes for the entire watershed based on aerial photographs, hierarchical clustering analysis provided a typology of landscape patterns for the cadastral lots. Following that, the trajectory of change of each lot was characterized (nature, importance, direction, rate of change). Seven types of landscape patterns are distinguished by the relative importance of different classes of landscape features and 51 trajectories of change were identified for the lots. The analysis shows that although the majority of lots were subjected to a homogenization of their landscape patterns since 1950, this trend is not entirely uniform and that since 2000 it occurs alongside trends towards diversification of certain landscape features on some lots. Furthermore, nearly a third of the lots are not following the main trajectories of change detected. Thus, the results suggest that extrinsic forces (policies, technologies) that are directing main changes in areas of intensive agricultural use toward uniformity could be modulated by internal forces (uses and values of the population). A better understanding of theses internal forces seems crucial to manage landscapes. From a methodology standpoint, although the hierarchical clustering analyses appear useful for understanding the spatial and temporal variability of landscape patterns, particular attention must be given to validating the typology chosen to characterize them.     

A review of models of landscape change

Models of landscape change may serve a variety of purposes, from exploring the interaction of natural processes to evaluating proposed management treatments. These models can be categorized as either whole landscape models, distributional landscape models, or spatial landscape models, depending on the amount of detail included in the models. Distributional models, while widely used, exclude spatial detail important for most landscape ecological research. Spatial models require substantial data, now more readily available, via remote sensing, and more easily manipulated, in geographical information systems. In spite of these technical advances, spatial modelling is poorly developed, largely because landscape change itself is poorly understood.To facilitate further development of landscape models I suggest (1) empirical multivariate studies of landscape change, (2) modelling of individual landscape processes, (3) explicit study of the effect of model scale on model behavior, and (4) scaling-up results of studies, on smaller land areas, that have landscape relevance.     

Drivers of grassland loss in Hungary during the post-socialist transformation (1987–1999)

The increase in the speed of land-cover change experienced worldwide is becoming a growing concern. Major socio-economic transitions, such as the breakdown of socialism in Europe, may lead to particularly high rates of landscape transformations. In this paper we examined the loss of semi-natural grasslands in Hungary between 1987 and 1999. We studied the relationship between 9 potential driving forces and the fate of grasslands using logistic GLMs. Grassland loss was found to be very high (1.31 % per year), which is far higher than either before or after this period. The most influential predictors of grassland loss were environmental and landscape characteristics (soil type, area of remnant grassland patches), and the socio-economic context (distance to paved road, and nearest settlement, human population density). Several processes and relationships can only be understood from a historical perspective (e.g. large extent of afforestation, strong decrease of soil water table). Grassland loss during the study period emerged as a consequence of survival strategies of individual farmers seeking adaptation to the changing environmental and socio-economic conditions, and not urbanization and agricultural intensification which are the main underlying drivers for the ongoing landscape transformations in most parts of the developed world. Though globalization increasingly influences local land use decisions, reconstructing and modelling recent landscape changes cannot be done without a proper understanding of local history and culture. Our analysis shows the importance of large-area yet high resolution landscape change research, which may reveal unexpected patterns of land cover change, undetected at coarser scales.     

Changes in land-use/land-cover patterns in Italy and their implications for biodiversity conservation

Land-use/land-cover change is the most important factor in causing biodiversity loss. The Mediterranean region has been affected by antropic disturbance for thousands of years, and is, nowadays, one of the most significantly altered hotspots in the world. However, in the last years a significant increase in forest cover has been measured. These new patterns are independent from planned conservation strategies and appear to have a substantial impact on landscapes and biodiversity. We used three land-use/land-cover maps (from 1960 to 2000) covering the Italian peninsula to analyze the pattern of land-use/land-cover change. We measured an increase in forests, especially in mountains, an increase in artificial areas, especially in coastal zones, and a decrease in pastures. Intensively cultivated areas showed a limited decrease while extensively cultivated ones showed a marked decrease. In the same period mammal and bird species followed a similar pattern, with forest birds, ungulates and carnivores increasing, and typically Mediterranean species decreasing. We suggest that our results may provide important information, which could be useful for conservation planning in the entire Mediterranean hotspot. We suggest that an increasing conservation effort should be made to protect the Mediterranean-type forests and scrublands, as well as traditional agricultural practices. Moreover, future conservation efforts should consider the broad socio-political and ecological processes that are most likely to occur across the whole hotspot, especially along coastal areas, and the network of protected areas should be functionally integrated in a conservation strategy that includes the human-dominated landscape.     

Dynamical coupling of multiscale land change models

No single model or scale can fully capture the causes of land change. For a given region, land changes may have different impacts at different places. Limits and opportunities imposed by biophysical and socio-economic conditions, such as local policies and accessibility, may induce distinct land change trajectories. These local land change trajectories may, in turn, indirectly affect other places, as local actions interact with higher-level driving forces. Such intraregional interdependencies cannot be captured by studies at a single scale, calling for multiscale and multilocality studies. This paper proposes a software organization for building computational models that support dynamical linking of multiple scales. This structure couples different types of models, such as cell-space models with agent-based models. We show how results in multiscale models can flow both in bottom-up and top-down directions, thus allowing feedback from local actors to regional scales. The proposal is general and independent of specific software, and it is effective to model intraregional, bottom-up and top-down interactions in land change models. To show the model’s potential, we develop a case study that shows how a multiscale model for the Brazilian Amazonia can include feedbacks between local to regional scales.     

Design in science: extending the landscape ecology paradigm

Landscape ecological science has produced knowledge about the relationship between landscape pattern and landscape processes, but it has been less effective in transferring this knowledge to society. We argue that design is a common ground for scientists and practitioners to bring scientific knowledge into decision making about landscape change, and we therefore propose that the pattern–process paradigm should be extended to include a third part: design. In this context, we define design as any intentional change of landscape pattern for the purpose of sustainably providing ecosystem services while recognizably meeting societal needs and respecting societal values. We see both the activity of design and the resulting design pattern as opportunities for science: as a research method and as topic of research. To place design within landscape ecology science, we develop an analytic framework based on the concept of knowledge innovation, and we apply the framework to two cases in which design has been used as part of science. In these cases, design elicited innovation in society and in science: the design concept was incorporated in societal action to improve landscape function, and it also initiated scientific questions about pattern–process relations. We conclude that landscape design created collaboratively by scientists and practitioners in many disciplines improves the impact of landscape science in society and enhances the saliency and legitimacy of landscape ecological scientific knowledge.     

Multi-scale study of bird species distribution and of their response to vegetation change: a Mediterranean example

Land use changes operate at different scales. They trigger a cascade of effects that simultaneously modify the composition or structure of the landscape and of the local vegetation. Mobil animals, and birds in particular, can respond quickly to such multi-scalar changes. We took advantage of a long term study on the response of songbirds to land-use changes on four Mediterranean islands in Corsica and Sardinia to explore the benefits of a multi-scale analysis of the relationships between songbird distribution, vegetation structure and landscape dynamics. Field data and aerial photographs were used to describe the vegetation at three different scales. Birds were censused by point counts. We used statistical variance decomposition to study how bird distribution and vegetation at various scales were linked. We analysed multi-scale vegetation changes (floristic composition, plot vegetation type, and landscape structure) and their consequences on bird distribution with multivariate and non-parametrical tests. The distribution of most species was linked to at least two spatial scales. The weight of a given scale was consistent with life-history traits for species whose biology was well-known. In the examples studied, vegetation composition, vegetation type and landscape changes that resulted from land abandonment negatively affected birds depending on open or heterogeneous areas. Our results emphasize that multi-scale analyses can greatly enhance our understanding of bird distribution and of their changes. Management of these populations should take into account measures at various spatial scales depending on the sensitivity of the species.     

Temporal change in forest fragmentation at multiple scales

Previous studies of temporal changes in fragmentation have focused almost exclusively on patch and edge statistics, which might not detect changes in the spatial scale at which forest occurs in or dominates the landscape. We used temporal land-cover data for the Chesapeake Bay region and the state of New Jersey to compare patch-based and area–density scaling measures of fragmentation for detecting changes in the spatial scale of forest that may result from forest loss. For the patch-based analysis, we examined changes in the cumulative distribution of patch sizes. For area–density scaling, we used moving windows to examine changes in dominant forest. We defined dominant forest as a forest parcel (pixel) surrounded by a neighborhood in which forest occupied the majority of pixels. We used >50% and ≥60% as thresholds to define majority. Moving window sizes ranged from 2.25 to 5,314.41 hectares (ha). Patch size cumulative distributions changed very little over time, providing no indication that forest loss was changing the spatial scale of forest. Area–density scaling showed that dominant forest was sensitive to forest loss, and the sensitivity increased nonlinearly as the spatial scale increased. The ratio of dominant forest loss to forest loss increased nonlinearly from 1.4 to 1.8 at the smallest spatial scale to 8.3 to 11.5 at the largest spatial scale. The nonlinear relationship between dominant forest loss and forest loss in these regions suggests that continued forest loss will cause abrupt transitions in the scale at which forest dominates the landscape. In comparison to the Chesapeake Bay region, dominant forest loss in New Jersey was less sensitive to forest loss, which may be attributable the protected status of the New Jersey Pine Barrens.     

Land-cover and structural changes in a western Norwegian cultural landscape since 1865, based on an old cadastral map and a field survey

Many studies of land-cover and structural changes in cultural landscapes have used historical maps as a source for information about past land-cover. All transformations of historical maps onto modern coordinate systems are however burdened with difficulties when it comes to accuracy. We show that a detailed land survey of the present landscape may enable transformation of an old cadastral map directly onto the present terrain with very high accuracy. The detailed resulting map enabled us to locate remnants of semi-natural grasslands and man-made structures with continuity from 1865 and to test hypotheses about relationships between landscape changes and landscape characteristics. The main land-cover change 1865–2002 was decrease of arable fields, and addition of three new land-cover classes: horticultural, orchard and abandoned areas. Of the 330 man-made structures present in 1865, only 58 remained in 2002, while 63 new structures had been built after 1865. We found that semi-natural grasslands with continuity since 1865 were situated on ground with significantly lower production capacity than mean 1865 production capacity. The man-made structures with continuity since 1865 were also associated with areas with significantly lower production capacity than the 1865 mean, situated in significantly steeper terrain but not further from the hamlet. Our study illustrates the potential of digitised and accurately transformed historical cadastral maps combined with detailed field surveys for analysis of land-cover and structural changes in the cultural landscape.     

Developing a multi-scale visualisation framework for use in climate change response

Climate change is predicted to impact countries, regions and localities differently. However, common to the predicted impacts is a global trend toward increased levels of carbon dioxide and rising sea levels. Governments and communities need to take into account the likely impacts of climate on the landscape, both built and natural. There is a growing and significant body of climate change research. Much of this information produced by domain experts for a range of disciplines is complex and difficult for planners, decision makers and communities to act upon. The need to communicate often complex scientific information which can be used to assist in the planning cycle is a key challenge. This paper draws from a range of international examples of the use of visualisation in the context of landscape planning to communicate climate change impact and adaptation options within the context of the planning cycle. Missing from the literature, however, is a multi-scalar approach which allows decision makers, planners and communities to seamlessly explore scenarios at their special level of interest, as well as to collectively understand what is driving these at a larger scale, and what the implications are at ever more local levels. Visualisation tools such as digital globes provide one way to bring together multi-scaled spatial–temporal datasets. We present an initial development with this goal in mind. Future research is required to determine the best tools for communicating particular complex scientific data and also to better understand how visualisation can be used to improve the landscape planning process.     

城市森林景观动态变化与驱动力分析——以沈阳市铁西区为例

在遥感和GIS技术的支持下,借助各种遥感影像,采用转移矩阵和景观斑块变化类型的分析方法,对2001～2011年沈阳市铁西区大中型(面积大于400m2)城市森林景观动态变化进行分析。结果表明:10年间,铁西区各类型用地相互转化频繁,大中型城市森林斑块总面积和总数量都呈现先增后减的趋势,斑块整体水平向中小型化发展。而工业用地、企事业单位用地和其他用地中的斑块更新度高。研究区域以工业迁移因素为核心,经济发展、人口增长及管理因素成为景观动态变化的主要驱动力。     

Effect of historic landscape change on the genetic structure of the bush-cricket Metrioptera roeseli

This study investigates the impact of past and present landscape structure on the current genetic structure of the bush-cricket Metrioptera roeseli (Orthoptera, Tettigoniidae) in a rural landscape in Germany. Assuming that land-use types, such as grassland, arable land and forest, as well as linear structures, mainly roads, differentially affect the connectivity of the bush-cricket's habitat and therefore migration and gene flow, we correlated landscape parameters between sampling locations as derived from GIS-maps with genetic similarities between individual bush-crickets as estimated by RAPD-PCR. Fifty bush-crickets were sampled with distances between sampling locations varying between 15 m and 2 km. Corresponding landscape configurations were recorded in 8 years between 1945 and 1998. Landscape configuration 50 years ago appeared to have influenced the present genetic structure of the bush-cricket (R ² = 0.18). Crossing roads and land use other than grassland along the transect between sampling locations tended to decrease genetic similarity, whereas grassland and parallel roads tended to increase genetic similarity between bush-crickets. Following shifts in land use during 1953–1973 the correlation between landscape and present genetic structure decreased gradually. Our study suggests that it needs time for the landscape to build a visible effect on the genetic structure of the bush-cricket population, and that this effect cannot be detected if the landscape changes faster than the genetic structure responds to it.