Prediction of total and rare plant species richness in agricultural landscapes from satellite images and topographic data

The diversity of future landscapes might depend on our ability to predict their potential species richness. The predictability of patterns of vascular plant species richness in a Finnish agricultural river landscape was studied using generalized linear modeling, floristic records from fifty-three0.25-km grid squares in the “core” study area, and environmental variables derived from Landsat TM images and a digital elevation model. We built multiple regression models for the total number of plant species and the number of rarities, and validated the accuracy of the derived models with a test set of 52 grid squares. We tentatively extrapolated the models from the core study area to the whole study area of 601 km² and produced species richness probability maps using GIS techniques. The results suggest that the local ‘hotspots’ of total flora (grid squares with > 200species) are mainly found in river valleys, where habitat diversity is high and a semi-open agricultural-forest mosaic occurs. The ‘hotspots’ of rare species (grid squares with > 4 rare species) are also found in river valleys, in sites where extensive semi-natural grasslands and herb-rich deciduous forests occur on steep slopes. We conclude that environmental variables derived from satellite images and topographic data can be used as approximate surrogates of plant species diversity in agricultural landscapes. Modeling of biological diversity based on satellite images and GIS can provide useful information needed in land use planning. However, due to the potential pitfalls in processing satellite imagery and model-building procedures, the results of predictive models should be carefully interpreted. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Woodland and floral richness boost bumble bee density in cranberry resource pulse landscapes

Landscape Ecology - Native pollinators provide an important ecosystem service for many pollination-dependent fruit crops, but require nesting and foraging resources in proximity to target crop...     

Within-patch habitat quality determines the resilience of specialist species in fragmented landscapes

Patch geometry and habitat quality among patches are widely recognized as important factors affecting population dynamics in fragmented landscapes. Little is known, however, about the influence of within-patch habitat quality on population dynamics. In this paper, we investigate the relative importance of patch geometry and within-patch habitat quality in determining population dynamics using a spatially explicit, agent-based model. We simulate two mobile species that differ in their species traits: one resembles a habitat specialist and the other a habitat generalist. Habitat quality varies continuously within habitat patches in space (and time). The results show that spatial variation in within-patch quality, together with patch area, controls population abundance of the habitat specialist. In contrast, the population size of the generalist species depends on patch area and isolation. Temporal variation in within-patch quality is, however, less influential in driving the population resilience of both species. We conclude that specialist species are more sensitive than generalist species to within-patch variation in habitat quality. The patch area-isolation paradigm, developed in metapopulation theory, should incorporate variation in within-patch habitat quality, particularly for habitat specialists.     

A methodology for analyzing rare species distribution patterns utilizing GIS technology: The rare birds of Tanzania

A simple, straightforward, cartographic modelling technique is presented for measuring relations between environmental characteristics and rare species distribution patterns. This approach is corroborated by digitizing rare bird distribution data for Tanzania and statistically analyzing these patterns in relation to geographic and environmental variables. Of the available natural resource data for Africa, only the vegetation and soils data appeared accurate enough to represent regional natural resource distribution patterns. Available data for Tanzania at the regional scale is not currently precise or comprehensive enough to analyze ongoing dynamic ecological processes.Statistical relations, associated with a study quadrangle within Tanzania, are documented for these parameters. Final confirmation of the accuracy of predictions about rare species diversity patterns will ensue from future field observations. When confirmed, this methodology can be used for setting conservation priorities in biologically little known regions of the world.     

Conservation implications of mapping rare ecosystems using high spatial resolution imagery: recommendations for heterogeneous and fragmented landscapes

Protection of rare ecosystems requires information on their abundance and spatial distribution, yet mapping rare ecosystems, particularly those which are fragmented, is a challenge. Use of high spatial resolution satellite imagery is increasing, in part because it may be well-suited for mapping fine-scale components of landscapes. We classified high spatial resolution QuickBird imagery of coastal British Columbia, Canada into late seral forest associations. With an emphasis on rare forest associations, we compared the classification accuracies resulting from contrasting accuracy assessment techniques. We also evaluated the impact of post-classification image smoothing on the quantity and configuration of rare forest associations mapped. Less common associations were generally classified with lower accuracies than more abundant associations, however, accuracies varied depending on the assessment technique used. In particular, ignoring the presence of fine-scale heterogeneity falsely lowered the estimates of map accuracy by approximately 20%. Smoothing, while generally increasing the accuracies of rare forest associations, had a large effect on their predicted spatial extent and configuration. Simply due to smoothing, areal estimates of rare associations differed by as much as 36%, the number of patches decreased by 73% on average, and mean patch size increased by up to 650%. Our findings indicate that routinely used post-classification and map assessment techniques can greatly impact the portrayal of rare and fragmented ecosystems. Further research is needed on the specific challenges of mapping and assessing the accuracy of rare ecosystems in fragmented and heterogeneous landscapes. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Modeling invasive species spread in complex landscapes: the case of potato moth in Ecuador

Tropical mountains have a long history of human occupation, and although vulnerable to biological invasions, have received minimal attention in the literature. Understanding invasive pest dynamics in socio-ecological, agricultural landscapes, like the tropical Andes, is a challenging but timely issue for ecologists as it may provide developing countries with new tools to face increasing threats posed by these organisms. In this work, road rehabilitation into a remote valley of the Ecuadorian Andes constituted a natural experiment to study the spatial propagation of an invasive potato tuber moth into a previously non-infested agricultural landscape. We used a cellular automaton to model moth spatio-temporal dynamics. Integrating real-world variables in the model allowed us to examine the relative influence of environmental versus social landscape heterogeneity on moth propagation. We focused on two types of anthropogenic activities: (1) the presence and spatial distribution of traditional crop storage structures that modify local microclimate, and (2) long-distance dispersal (LDD) of moths by human-induced transportation. Data from participatory monitoring of pest invasion into the valley and from a larger-scale field survey on the Ecuadorian Andes allowed us to validate our model against actual presence/absence records. Our simulations revealed that high density and a clumped distribution of storage structures had a positive effect on moth invasion by modifying the temperature of the landscape, and that passive, LDD enhanced moth invasion. Model validation showed that including human influence produced more precise and realistic simulations. We provide a powerful and widely applicable methodological framework that stresses the crucial importance of integrating the social landscape to develop accurate invasion models of pest dynamics in complex, agricultural systems.     

Landscape patch shape complexity as an effective measure for plant species richness in rural landscapes

The application of landscape patch shape complexity as a predictor ofvascularplant and bryophyte species richness is analysed. Several common complexityindices (shape index, fractal dimension, comparison to the area of the minimumbounding rectangle) are tested for their predictive power for plant speciesrichness. One new robust measure for shape complexity is presented whichovercomes some disadvantages of common complexity measures applied to highresolution analysis of agricultural landscapes based on aerial photographs. Thenew index is based on the number of shape characterising points along apolygons boundary. This new measure shows promising predictive capabilitiesforspecies richness of vascular plants and bryophytes (correlation coefficient:0.85 for vascular plants, 0.74 for bryophytes).This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Quantifying determinants contributing to plant species richness in mosaic landscapes: a single- and multi-patch perspective

Despite good theoretical knowledge about determinants of plant species richness in mosaic landscapes, validations based on complete surveys are scarce. We conducted a case study in a highly fragmented, traditional agricultural landscape. In 199 patches of 20 representative multi-patch-plots (MPPs, 1 ha) we recorded a total of 371 plant species. In addition to an additive partitioning of species diversity at the (a) patch- and (b) MPP-scale, we adopted the recently proposed ‘specificity’ measure to quantify the contribution of a spatial subunit to landscape species richness (subunit-to-landscape-contribution, SLC). SLC-values were calculated at both scales with respect to various spatial extents. General regression models were used to quantify the relative importance of hypothesis-driven determinants for species richness and SLC-values. At the patch scale, habitat type was the main determinant of species richness, followed by area and elongated shape. For SLC-values, area was more important than habitat type, and its relevance increased with the extent of the considered landscape. Influences of elongated shape and vegetation context were minor. Differences between habitat types were pronounced for species richness and also partly scale-dependent for SLC-values. Relevant predictors at the MPP-scale were nonlinear habitat richness, the gradient from anthropogenic to seminatural vegetation, and the proportions of natural vegetation and rare habitats. Linear elements and habitat configuration did not contribute to species richness and SLC. Results at the MPP-scale were in complete accordance with the predictions of the mosaic concept. Hence, our study represents its first empirical validation for plant species diversity in mosaic landscapes.     

Determinants of plant species richness and patterns of nestedness in fragmented landscapes: evidence from land-bridge islands

Land-bridge islands formed by dam construction are considered to be “experimental” systems for studying the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation, offering many distinct advantages over terrestrial fragments. The Thousand Island Lake in Southeast China is one such land-bridge system with more than 1000 islands. Based on a field survey of vascular plant richness on 154 land-bridge islands during 2007–2008, we examined the effects of island and landscape attributes on plant species richness and patterns of species nestedness. We also examined the different responses of plant functional groups (classified according to growth form and shade tolerance) to fragmentation. We found that island area explained the greatest amount of variation in plant species richness. Island area and shape index positively affected species diversity and the degree of nestedness exhibited by plant communities while the perimeter to area ratio of the islands had a negative effect. Shade-tolerant plants were the most sensitive species group to habitat fragmentation. Isolation negatively affected the degree of nestedness in herb and shade-intolerant plants including species with various dispersal abilities in the fragmented landscape. Based on these results, we concluded that the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on overall species richness depended mostly on the degree of habitat loss, but patterns of nestedness were generated from different ecological mechanisms due to species-specific responses to different characteristics of habitat patches.     

Recent fire history and connectivity patterns determine bird species distribution dynamics in landscapes dominated by land abandonment

Mediterranean landscapes are suffering two opposing forces leading to large-scale changes in species distribution: land abandonment of less productive areas and an increase in wildfire impact. Here, we test the hypothesis that fires occurred in recent decades drive the pattern of expansion of early-successional, open-habitat bird species by aiding in the process of colonisation of newly burnt areas. The study was carried out in Catalonia (NE Spain). We selected 44 burnt sites occurring between 2000 and 2005 to model colonisation patterns under different assumptions of potential colonisers’ sources and evaluated the colonisation estimates with empirical data on six bird species especially collected for this purpose. We first defined three landscape scenarios serving as surrogates of potential colonisers’ sources: open-habitats created by fire, shrublands and farmlands. Then, we used a parameter derived from a functional connectivity metric to estimate species colonization dynamics on the selected sites by each particular scenario. Finally, we evaluated our colonisation estimates with the species occurrence in the studied locations by using generalized linear mixed models. The occurrence of the focal species on the newly burnt sites was significantly related to the connectivity patterns described by both the recent fire history and the other open-habitat types generated by a different type of disturbance. We suggest that land use changes in recent decades have produced a shift in the relative importance of habitats acting as reservoirs for open-habitat bird species dynamics in Mediterranean areas. Before the middle of the twentieth century species’ reservoirs were probably constituted by relatively static open habitats (grassland and farmland), whereas afterwards they likely consist of a shifting mosaic of habitat patches where fire plays a key role as connectivity provider and largely contributes to the maintenance of species persistence.     

Effects of historical and present fragmentation on plant species diversity in semi-natural grasslands in Swedish rural landscapes

Habitat loss and fragmentation of natural and semi-natural habitats are considered as major threats to plant species richness. Recently several studies have pinpointed the need to analyse past landscape patterns to understand effects of fragmentation, as the response to landscape change may be slow in many organisms, plants in particular. We compared species richness in continuously grazed and abandoned grasslands in different commonplace rural landscapes in Sweden, and analysed effects of isolation and area in three time-steps (100 and 50 years ago and today). Old cadastral maps and aerial photographs were used to analyse past and present landscape patterns in 25 sites. Two plant diversity measures were investigated; total species richness and species density. During the last 100 years grassland area and connectivity have been reduced by about 90%. Present-day habitat area was positively related to total species richness in both habitats. There was also a relationship to habitat area 50 years ago for continuously grazed grasslands. Only present management was related to species density: continuously grazed grasslands had the highest species density. There were no relationships between grassland connectivity, present or past, and any diversity measure. We conclude that landscape history is not directly important for present-day plant diversity patterns in ordinary landscapes, although past grassland management is a prerequisite for the grassland habitats that can be found there today. It is important that studies are conducted, not only in very diverse landscapes, but also in managed landscapes in order to assess the effects of fragmentation on species.     

Extinction risk of wood-living model species in forest landscapes as related to forest history and conservation strategy

Dead wood is a critical resource for biodiversity in boreal forests. We analysed the persistence of five model species inhabiting dead wood. By parameterising a metapopulation model (the incidence function model), the model species were all assigned characteristics that makes it likely that they have disappeared from some (20%) forest landscapes with a long history of forest management. In the metapopulation model, a forest stand (5 ha) was regarded as a habitat patch. The amount of habitat in each patch was obtained from models of dead wood dynamics of Norway spruce in central Sweden. Dead wood generated by altered management over the entire landscape was found to be less efficient in reducing extinction risks in comparison to the same amount of dead wood generated by protecting reserves. Because generation of dead wood by altered management is often less expensive than setting aside reserves, it is difficult to determine which conservation measure is most cost-efficient. In a landscape subjected to forestry for the first time, it was better to preserve a few large reserves than many small ones. However, in a managed, highly fragmented forest landscape it was better to set aside many small reserves. The reason for this was that small plots with high habitat quality could be selected, while large reserves originally contained habitats both of high and low quality, and the rate of habitat quality increase was low. A strategy for biodiversity conservation in a managed forest landscape should include information about the history of the landscape, the current amount and spatial distribution of forest habitats, and the potential for rapid restoration of forest habitats, both on managed and unmanaged forest land.     

The role of landscape structure in species richness distribution of birds,amphibians, reptiles and lepidopterans in Mediterranean landscapes

The parameters referring to landscape structure are essential in any evaluation for conservation because of the relationship that exists between the landscape structure and the ecological processes. This paper presents a study of the relationships between landscape structure and species diversity distribution (estimated in terms of richness of birds, amphibians, reptiles and butterflies) in the region of Madrid, Spain. The results show that the response of species richness to landscape heterogeneity varies depending on the group of species considered. For birds and lepidopterans, the most important factor affecting the distribution of richness of species is landscape heterogeneity, while other factors, such as the specific composition of land use, play a secondary role at this scale. On the other hand, richness of amphibians and reptiles is more closely related to the abundance of certain land-use types. The study highlights the importance of heterogeneity in Mediterranean landscapes as a criterion for landscape planning and for definition of management directives in order to maintain biodiversity.     

Targeting and evaluating biodiversity conservation action within fragmented landscapes: an approach based on generic focal species and least-cost networks

The focus of biodiversity conservation is shifting to larger spatial scales in response to habitat fragmentation and the need to integrate multiple landscape objectives. Conservation strategies increasingly incorporate measures to combat fragmentation such as ecological networks. These are often based on assessment of landscape structure but such approaches fail to capitalise on the potential offered by more ecologically robust assessments of landscape function and connectivity. In this paper, we describe a modelling approach to identifying functional habitat networks and demonstrate its application to a fragmented landscape where policy initiatives seek to improve conditions for woodland biodiversity including increasing woodland cover. Functional habitat networks were defined by identifying suitable habitat and by modelling connectivity using least-cost approaches to account for matrix permeability. Generic focal species (GFS) profiles were developed, in consultation with stakeholders, to represent species with high and moderate sensitivity to fragmentation. We demonstrated how this form of analysis can be used to aid the spatial targeting of conservation actions. This ‘targeted’ action scenario was tested for effectiveness against comparable scenarios, which were based on random and clumped actions within the same landscape. We tested effectiveness using structural metrics, network-based metrics and a published functional connectivity indicator. Targeting actions within networks resulted in the highest mean woodland area and highest connectivity indicator value. Our approach provides an assessment of landscape function by recognising the importance of the landscape matrix. It provides a framework for the targeting and evaluation of alternative conservation options, offering a pragmatic, ecologically-robust solution to a current need in applied landscape ecology.     

Modelling the impacts of agriculture in mixed-use landscapes: a review and case study involving two species of dabbling ducks

Context

This study synthesizes evidence from three separate surveys of American Black Duck and Mallard breeding habitat usage to quantify the effects of agriculture at the landscape scale.

Objectives

To assess duck breeding activity in agricultural landscapes within the Canadian maritimes in order to measure the overall impact of agricultural land use, the response to particular agricultural activities, and the influence of landscape configuration.

Methods

Models, constructed using a long-term census (SURVEY1), were used to predict habitat selection for two other independent surveys (SURVEY2, SURVEY3). Predictions incorporated information about wetland area and diversity, as well as anthropogenic factors, allowing subsequent analyses to focus on the remaining residual error attributable to agricultural effects.

Results

SURVEY2 results demonstrated that the proportion of active agriculture is an important indicator of the severity of human disturbance, yielding threshold estimates of 39% for Mallards and 60% for Black Ducks, with an overall average of 50%. Agricultural conversion beyond these thresholds deterred breeding ducks independently of other factors. SURVEY3 land cover information demonstrated that the presence of cropland intensified this deterrence effect, even at levels as low as 10%. Woodland cover (in excess of 30%) was important for both species, but its configuration was not.

Conclusions

In addition to quantifying threshold effects, this study reaffirms that woodland is an important part of the maritime landscape matrix, and contributes positively to habitat diversity in mixed use, moderate intensity agricultural regions. Wetland restoration in agricultural landscapes should monitor and promote less crop-intensive, mixed-use practices.

     

Contrasting roles of environmental and spatial processes for common and rare urban butterfly species compositions

Context

Environmental processes and dispersal are primary determinants of metacommunity dynamics. The relative importance of these effects may vary between species of different abundance classes, given variation in life history traits. Under high disturbance conditions, rare species may be more easily eliminated from their optimal habitats and their distribution may therefore be more heavily dependent upon dispersal from nearby habitat patches than common species.

Objectives

We tested if metacommunity dynamics vary between abundance classes in a high disturbance environment.

Methods

Standardized butterfly sampling was conducted in the urban parks of Hong Kong. To estimate the strength of environmental processes, we measured an array of environmental variables for all sampled parks. Spatial predictors were generated to estimate the effect of dispersal.

Results

For shaping common species compositions, we found environmental processes (and specifically environmental variables including floral density and surrounding woody plant cover) slightly more important than spatial processes. For rare species, only spatial processes were significant while environmental processes were insignificant. Our result contrasts previous studies in natural metacommunities, which have shown that both common and rare species compositions are shaped by environmental processes and similar variables.

Conclusions

Our results demonstrate that high disturbance conditions may inhibit rare species establishment and persistence in urban landscapes. Local habitat management may not be sufficient in conserving rare species in urban environments—spatial context and configuration should be considered in planning for biodiversity. We also highlight the utility of community deconstruction analysis in providing insights into rare species metacommunity dynamics.

     

Scale-dependent importance of environment, land use and landscape structure for species richness and composition of SE Norwegian modern agricultural landscapes

Knowledge of variation in vascular plant species richness and species composition in modern agricultural landscapes is important for appropriate biodiversity management. From species lists for 2201 land-type patches in 16 1-km² plots five data sets differing in sampling-unit size from patch to plot were prepared. Variation in each data set was partitioned into seven sources: patch geometry, patch type, geographic location, plot affiliation, habitat diversity, ecological factors, and land-use intensity. Patch species richness was highly predictable (75% of variance explained) by patch area, within-patch heterogeneity and patch type. Plot species richness was, however, not predictable by any explanatory variable, most likely because all studied landscapes contained all main patch types – ploughed land, woodland, grassland and other open land – and hence had a large core of common species. Patch species composition was explained by variation along major environmental complex gradients but appeared nested to lower degrees in modern than in traditional agricultural landscapes because species-poor parts of the landscape do not contain well-defined subsets of the species pool of species-rich parts. Variation in species composition was scale dependent because the relative importance of specific complex gradients changed with increasing sampling-unit size, and because the amount of randomness in data sets decreased with increasing sampling-unit size. Our results indicate that broad landscape structural changes will have consequences for landscape-scale species richness that are hard or impossible to predict by simple surrogate variables.     

Islands in the forest: effects of patch size and isolation on farmland bird species richness and community composition of farmland patches in forest landscapes

Landscape Ecology - Theory predicts that species diversity of isolated habitat patches depends on patch size and isolation. However, there are few previous studies of how patch size and isolation...     

Continuous predictors of species distributions support categorically stronger inference than ordinal and nominal classes: an example with urban bats

Understanding of how species distributions are driven by landscape-level processes has been obscured by null or inconsistent findings from poorly designed studies. We explore how differences in the way potential drivers of species distributions are defined can influence their perceived effects. Specifically, we evaluate how much statistical power is lost when continuous variables are discretised, and how the use of qualitatively defined nominal variables impacts biological interpretation of results. We fitted generalized linear models to dependent variables relating to bat distribution (species richness, diversity, relative abundance of functional groups and individual species) obtained from 36 sites across Melbourne, Australia, and independent variables that were continuous (percentage tree cover, dwelling density), ordinal (dichotomised continuous variables) or nominal (land-use, urban context). We found that models fitted with continuous predictors had better fit and explanatory power than those fitted with ordinal predictors for all response variables. Ordinal models failed to detect statistically significant effects for 4 of the 11 response variables that were successfully modelled with continuous data, suggesting Type II errors had occurred. Models fitted with nominal data explained a comparable amount of variation in some dependent variables as continuous models. However, interpretation of the mechanisms behind responses to nominal categorical levels was obscured because environmental conditions within them were confounded and not homogenous. To gain better understanding from nominal predictors would therefore require further investigation. Our findings show that careful consideration must be given to the choice of environmental variables used for species distribution modelling and how those variables are defined.