Reflections on the “Old” Economy, “New” Economy,and Services

ABSTRACT Economic competitiveness now has less to do with new materials than with new ways of producing, utilizing, and combining diverse knowledges. It is branded as symptomatic of a “new” economy and is often juxtaposed against the “old” economy. As accelerating technological change has greatly increased the volume and quality of the information available to organizations, to firms, and to individual employees, it is asserted that the economy has become more “new” than “old.” But this is predicated on the assumption that there is a “new” economy and that it is somehow distinguishable from the “old.” This paper explores the basis for this dichotomy and whether it really adds anything to understanding contemporary economies and their ongoing development. It will be argued that it is more useful and constructive to examine the economy through a lens dominated by service industries that are now the key drivers of change (innovation, competition, employment) and development. The paper is concluded with a discussion of some items that could usefully be part of an agenda for further research by economic geographers on the evolving spatial and structural attributes of service work and organizations and their impact on cities or regions at different scales of analysis.     

以“支部+”平台为核心的农村利益联结机制研究——以江苏省句容市唐陵村为例

基层党组织是农村最主要的领导力量,村域经济发展要充分发挥党组织的领导、凝聚和协调作用。针对很多地区产业不断发展而农民依然贫困、集体经济实力依然薄弱、基层党组织引领经济发展能力不够等问题,本文基于我国基层党支部的发展历史,结合各地区党组织的经济发展实践,提出了打造“支部+”平台为核心的利益联结机制设想,并以江苏省句容市唐陵村“支部+”为例进行具体分析。研究发现,唐陵村通过构建“支部+”平台利益联结机制,很好地促进了当地的经济发展,当地村民对党组织和经济发展效果具有很高满意度。以“支部+”平台为核心形成的利益联结机制,为我国村域经济发展提供了新路径。通过“支部+”平台整合各方面资源,激发各经营主体积极参与产业发展,而且通过党组织把握村级产业的性质与发展方向,使经济发展成果惠及广大农民群众,达到乡村振兴的目的。     

国家现代农业示范区创新发展模式研究

以北京市整建制推进国家现代农业示范区建设为背景,较为系统地总结了房山区在建设国家现代农业示范区过程中取得的明显成效。房山区创建了独具房山特色的“房山模式”,由6个子模式构成：特色产业支撑子模式、龙头企业带动子模式、休闲农园子模式、沟域经济子模式、农产品质量安全子模式和智慧农业子模式。在此基础上,总结了“房山模式”的典型经验,即因地制宜抓产业,夯实“房山模式”发展基础;政府重视出政策、扶持“房山模式”快发展;科技引领强内功、助推“房山模式”跨越式发展;体制机制求创新、为“房山模式”发展注入强劲动力;加强宣传与推介、提高“房山模式”影响力。概括提出了“房山模式”的六大特征：类型明确、业态丰富、功能多样、科技支撑有力、稳定性和动态性相结合、半开放性与开放性相结合。最后,提出了“房山模式”对北京市乃至全国现代农业示范区建设中的意义与作用,根据国家及北京市新形势、新目标、新定位,前瞻性地提出了未来“房山模式”发展的思路与设想。     

Space of Flows,Uneven Regional Development,and the Geography of Financial Services in Ireland

ABSTRACT This paper is concerned with the geography of finance in the globalising knowledge‐based economy, characterised by the proliferation of information and communication technology. More specifically, the paper aims to examine the “locational structure” of financial services in such an economy and its implications for uneven regional development in Europe. In doing so, the paper engages with the concept of “space of flows” and several other theoretical approaches concerned with the geography of advanced producer services and finance. It argues that while such approaches provide a useful starting point, they need be developed further in order to inform an understanding of both the nature and the dynamics of the “locational structure” of financial services and its implications for regional economic development. This point is illustrated in the case of Ireland, focusing on “domestic” banking institutions and “international” financial services operating there. The paper concludes that while “space of flows” provides a useful metaphor for approaching the geography of financial services and other knowledge intensive business services, the conceptual and analytical emphasis should shift towards the “flows of value” that ultimately impinge upon the fortunes of cities and regions.     

河南优质小麦品种结构分析

河南小麦经济的重要支柱是优质小麦的生产、加工和贸易。影响优质小麦发展的第一要素是品种及其结构。本文对跨世纪以来河南优质小麦的品质结构、品种结构及其相应的贡献状况作了具体的比较和分析,对今后河南优质小麦生产及小麦经济的发展趋势进行了推导、预测。结果表明,河南优质小麦仍然保持强劲的发展势头,总趋势呈现出“S”型。品种向多元化发展,但是,2~3个优势品种仍然遥遥领先。“十五”以来,河南优质小麦中郑麦系列品种做出了突出贡献。     

The industries of the future in Mexico: Local and non-local effects in the localization of “knowledge-intensive services”

The current characteristics in the global economy have defined “knowledge-intensive services” (KIS) as part of the so-called “industries of the future” due to the attributes of their employment and central function in the development processes in science, technology, art, and culture. This study outlines as a central hypothesis that the localization of KIS depends on different factors according to the type of knowledge being developed (analytical, synthetic, and symbolic). The main objective in this work is to explore the spatial economic factors associated with the localization and changes (positive and negative) when using KIS in the “national urban system” in México between 2004 and 2014. To do so, the services sector is defined according to the “intensity” and the “types” of knowledge that they develop. An analysis of spatial econometrics is carried out that distinguishes between the geographic (local) effect and the spatial (non-local) effect of the independent variables using data and microdata from the period 2004 to 2014. The results partly correspond with the central hypothesis of the study and offer possibilities of public policies to take advantage of and to promote the benefits of KIS, especially regarding cities in developing countries looking to become part of the 21st century economy.     

The transport of water through the east Indonesian deep-sea basins. A comparison of Snellius-I and -II results

The flushing rates of water transport in the east Indonesian deep-sea basins is reconsidered using new data on oxygen content, new current measurements in the Strait of Lifamatola and “age” determinations of water masses by ¹⁴C decay. It was concluded that rates were considerably faster than assumed by the first author on the basis of Snellius-I data (1929–1930). Depending on location, “ages” of 10 to 140 years were found, the higher ages in the more isolated parts of the system.     

Heritability of spotted wilt resistance in a Florida‐EP™ “113”‐derived peanut (Arachis hypogaea) population

Spotted wilt, caused by tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV), is a major disease of peanut (Arachis hypogaea ) in the south‐eastern United States. Cultivar resistance is the most important factor in disease control. However, spotted wilt resistance in current cultivars still carries risk in the absence of other practices when disease is severe. In contrast, a newly developed cultivar, Florida‐EP? “113,” has demonstrated excellent resistance even when spotted wilt is severe. Information on heritability of this resistance can help breeders better utilize it in breeding. F₂‐derived populations from the cross Florida‐EP? “113”/Georgia Valencia were developed and tested in field experiments in Florida from 2012 to 2014. Disease symptoms were evaluated visually, and the frequency of TSWV infection was measured by ImmunoStrip^®. Heritability estimated from ImmunoStrip^® was higher (0.66) compared to visual ratings (0.48). Genetic correlations among evaluation methods (r _A = 0.92–0.99) and environments (r _B = 0.86–0.99) were high. These results indicate that resistance in Florida‐EP? “113” is highly heritable and that selection in a high disease risk environment is feasible without significant erosion of genetic gain.     

台风“海棠”减弱后影响潍坊的暴雨特征分析

摘要：[方法]利用常规天气图、数值预报产品和多普勒雷达资料,[目的]对2017年第10号台风“海棠”减弱后的热带低压进行综合分析,主要针对2017年8月2～3日其影响潍坊的一次强对流天气过程进行个例研究,[结果]结果表明：(1)此次强对流天气过程主要由台风减弱后的热带低压、冷空气和地面气旋共同影响造成的,系统动力抬升条件好,水汽输送条件好,再加上列车效应导致潍坊多个站点出现暴雨和大暴雨天气;[结论]（2）几家数值预报产品对此次过程的天气系统预报差异较大,其中欧洲中心表现较好,对今后的预报有指导意义。     

Urban Development and Knowledge‐Intensive Business Services: Too Many Unanswered Questions?

ABSTRACT It is often assumed that future urban employment will be increasingly dependent on the knowledge‐intensive business services (KIBS). This underpins much of the current thinking about the development of the English “core cites.” Their example is employed to examine the more general validity of such assumptions, in terms of five critical questions to which research offers only partial and indefinite answers. For any city, how far are these activities really “knowledge intensive”? What markets do they serve? Is their future growth certain? And even when this is the case, how can they make a long‐term contribution to local urban economic success? Finally, how far do urban economic institutions and policies need to be adapted to foster knowledge‐based activities such as KIBS? It seems that, despite the growth of measured KIBS employment, most of the core cities possess few truly knowledge‐intensive KIBS, capable of serving national and international business markets, competitively adapting to future change, and adding to the competitiveness of the wider urban economy. Nationally such activities remain focused into the London region where, if anything, they have increased their concentration is recent years.     

不同高度冷空气侵入登陆台风暴雨过程对比分析

为了解不同高度冷空气与登陆台风结合,暴雨事件的机理和降水特征差异。以1323号“菲特”和1601号“尼伯特”登陆台风,分别引起江苏东南部2013年10月7—8日和2016年7月11日异常暴雨事件为例,进行对比分析。结果表明：“10·7—8”暴雨期间,低层冷空气侵入“菲特”残留低压,与“丹娜丝”北侧东风急流结合,大气层结由对流不稳定转为条件性对称不稳定,低层斜压锋生、辐合加强,高层强辐散,倾斜对流发展,造成分布均匀持续时间长的层、积混合型强降水,暴雨中心与低层MPV2异常区和锋生区对应;“7·11”暴雨则是“尼伯特”残留低压倒槽顶部附近低层诱生出中尺度低压并发展,冷空气从中层侵入,强对流不稳定层结建立,对流有效位能释放形成强烈的垂直上升运动,造成分布不均、持续时间短、短时雨强大的对流性强降水,暴雨中心位于地面中尺度辐合线及温度脊附近。“10·7—8”暴雨过程,台风北侧的东风急流提供了充足的水汽;“7·11”暴雨过程的水汽,则主要来源于本地和中尺度低压右侧的偏东风输送。不同高度冷空气侵入登陆台风系统,造成大气层结稳定度和上升运动的形成机制不同,其降水特征存在显著差异,在预报业务中值得关注。     

产业整合视角的农户行为研究——来自668个蔬菜种植户的实证

研究针对农户面临多种蔬菜产业整合模式的选择问题,基于交易成本理论,分析农户选择不同蔬菜产业整合模式的影响因素。通过构建农户基本生产经营特征、三大成本（抗风险、执行、谈判）评价指标,采用多元Logistic 模型进行影响因素分析。结果表明：批发市场模式仍然是目前最主要的蔬菜产业整合模式;农户基本生产经营的特征不同程度地影响着其对各种蔬菜产业整合模式的选择;其中最关键的影响因素是交易成本,但抗风险成本、执行成本和谈判成本对不同蔬菜产业整合模式的影响力存在很大的差异。该研究为政府在蔬菜产业整合方面制定政策提供有效依据。     

基于熵权TOPSIS和ESDA的甘肃省县域经济时空演变研究

县域经济是我国国民经济的基本单元,研究县域经济差异对于一个地区的发展以及整个国民经济的发展都有重大意义。本文以甘肃省86个县域及嘉峪关市共87个地域为研究单元,选取人均GDP 、第二、三产业比重等12项相关指标建立了县域经济发展水平综合评价体系,利用熵权TOPSIS法和ESDA法对近20年来甘肃省各县域经济发展水平进行时间和空间两方面的评测。结果表明：从1995—2015年20年期间,甘肃省经济明显增长,但与全国各地经济发展水平相比还处于缓慢发展阶段;甘肃省县域经济发展水平两极差异明显,排名靠前及靠后的县域在20年间变化不明显,省会兰州及河西地区发展水平较高,陇中和陇南地区县域发展水平整体较低,呈现“强者恒强,弱者恒弱”的格局;空间自相关性显著,低值聚类的显著性更强;热点分析显示,甘肃省县域经济呈现明显的单核型经济空间结构,发展水平较高的地区对周边城市带动作用很小,地域差异明显。     

气候变化适应及其影响因素研究——山东胶州湾地区居民的实证分析

为探索气候变化感知在适应决策过程中的作用机理,本研究以深度访谈数据为基础,基于“感知－适应”分析框架,采用二元Probit模型和泊松回归模型,分析胶州湾地区居民气候变化适应决策和适应选择的影响因素。研究表明,胶州湾地区绝大多数居民已经感知到气候变化,半数以上居民采取了一定的适应措施,大多数居民对适应措施效果的感到满意。居民采取适应措施介于0-4项,平均为1.07项,适应措施的普及率和多样化仍有提升空间。影响胶州湾地区居民气候变化适应决策与适应选择的主要因素存在一定差异性,但“居民对气候变化的感知”不论是对适应决策还是对适应选择的影响都较大,其中又以“对降水变化的感知”和“对气象灾害损失的感知”最为显著。     

准噶尔盆地南缘沙产业发展差异与影响的多元统计分析

为了研究新疆沙产业发展区域差异性,分析沙产业发展与环境、经济的关系,选取准噶尔盆地南缘的19个县市（兵团）作为主要研究对象,数据来源为实地调查和新疆统计年鉴、各地2013年统计公报等面板数据,筛选出当地沙产业发展、经济发展以及环境状况的16个典型指标,运用因子分析、聚类分析等方法,对调查区19个不同区域的沙产业发展进行了综合评价与分类比较,采用多元线性回归,分析了沙产业发展与环境、经济之间的相互关系。得出以下结论：（1）沙产业发展能够改善环境,拉动经济;（2）沙产业发展的焦点和难点为均衡性不足;（3）沙产业前期发展的短板是“挤出效应”。提出以下建议：（1）因地制宜,发展特色沙产业;（2）加大科技创新投入力度,合理规划投资规模。     

建国以来山东省小麦品种及其亲本Glu-1位点的亚基组成和多样性分析

探讨建国以来山东省小麦品种Glu-1的亚基特点及其多样性,并有针对性地筛选含有优质亚基的亲本。用SDS-PAGE法对山东省建国以来推广的主要品种及其亲本的HMW-GS组成和多样性进行了分析。山东省小麦品种及骨干亲本在Glu-A1位点主要为两种等位变异类型“Null”和“1”;Glu-B1有“7+8”、“7+9”、“14+15”、“17+18”、“6+8”5个等位变异类型,但主要以“7+8”和“7+9”为主;Glu-D1有“2+12”、“2+10”、“5+10”、“4+10”、“4+12”、“2+11”6个等位变异类型,以“2+12”为主。在3个位点中,Glu-B1位点的多样性最丰富,其次为Glu-D1位点,Glu-A1位点的多样性最差。Glu-1的多态性指数从50年代的高点开始下降,在60年代达到最低点,之后缓慢上升,在90年代达到最高点,当前表现为下降的趋势。山东省小麦品种及其亲本缺少优质亚基组合,这为山东省小麦品种的改良提供了方向。     

Growth of Incumbent Firms and Entrepreneurship in Vietnam

This paper analyzes the relationship between the performance of incumbent firms and the net entry of new firms by combining various theoretical views of entrepreneurship. Different regression models to treat dynamics and endogeneity issues are applied to test the research hypothesis with regional micro‐data for 61 Vietnamese provinces from 2000 to 2008. The main finding is that net entry is associated with the performance of incumbent firms and the overall performance of the economy. Incumbents' growth and gross domestic product growth induce changes in the existing production system and stimulate the creation of an economic environment more favourable to new firm formation. Consistent with the hypotheses put forward within the “knowledge spillover,” the “error‐correction,” and other approaches, incumbents may generate new entrepreneurial opportunities not only for themselves but also for the whole society.     

青岛崂山茶叶产量年景预报方法研究

通过气象因素对青岛市崂山地区茶叶产量年景的影响研究,确定了崂山地区茶叶产量出现歉年的主要农业气象灾害指标。基于崂山区1994—2016年茶叶产量资料与对应的气象资料,利用SPSS22.0统计分析系统,进行独立样本T检验、交叉表分析、x2检验等[,首先筛选出对茶叶产量年景影响显著的气象因子,再通过二元logistic回归分析,建立了崂山茶叶产量年景的农业气象预测模型。运用建立的模型对1994-2013年历史茶叶产量资料预报检验,“非歉年”的正确率为92.6%,“歉年”的正确率为83.3%;对2014-2016年预报,2014--2015年非歉年预报正确率为100%,2016年“歉年”的预报正确率为96.7%。研究结果表明：冬季日最低气温连续2天出现低于-10℃以下的低温天气,是崂山地区茶叶减产出现“歉年”的原因。因为冬季强寒潮天气会造气温急剧下降,当日最低气温连续2天低于-10℃以下时,崂山地区大田茶园土壤处于结冰状态,土壤水分移动和上升受到阻碍,此时茶树体内细胞结冰而遭受生理性冻害而死亡造成茶叶减产,研究结果对开展崂山地区茶叶气象服务与防灾减灾提供了理论依据。     

四川什邡“稻-蒜-烟”粮经复合种植模式经济效益分析

为了探讨“稻-蒜-烟”粮经复合种植新模式经济效益,对新模式、传统“稻-烟”和“稻-蒜”模式进行了成本收益分析和经济可行性分析。结果表明：一年三熟制“稻-蒜-烟”模式较传统“稻-烟”和“稻-蒜”模式,复种指数增加了60%,其总产值分别提高了55740.4 元/hm2和40644.5 元/hm2;土地净产率分别提高了45144.0 元/hm2和43661.9 元/hm2;活化劳动净产率较传统“稻-蒜”模式降低24.22%,但比“稻-烟”模式提高了34.94%;物化劳动净产率分别提高了17.39%和27.22%;新增纯收益率分别到达了16.38%和25.76%;边际成本收益率则分别达到了3.14 和1.55。“稻-蒜-烟”新模式有利于提高资源利用率,增加农民收益,因此有一定的推广应用价值。     

苎麻基因型抗旱性差异及其早期鉴定研究

用抗旱指数(RI)等指标对苎麻基因型抗旱性进行了鉴定。 结果表明： 圆叶青、 沅江黄壳 早和沅江稀节巴为抗旱性较强的基因型, 抗旱性较弱的基因型包括资兴绿麻和新宁箭杆麻 。 苎麻扦插(45天)苗在渗透胁迫4小时后的RWC(相对含水量)、 POD(过氧化物酶)、 Prolin e(脯氨酸)与抗旱指数呈正相关, 而RPP(细胞膜透性)、 MDA(丙二