农产品供应链对农户减贫增收的关联效应分析——基于滇、桂、苏、闽四省(区)的实证

实现小农户与大市场的有效对接既是现代农业健康发展的必然要求,又是贫困农户减贫增收的现实路径。在农业市场化改革深入推进的背景下,通过培育农产品供应链以此带动农户减贫增收致富,是当前市场化减贫的重要方向。基于滇、桂、苏、闽四省(区)农户调查数据,采用多元有序Logistic模型,分析了农产品供应链对农户减贫增收的关联效应及区域差异。结果表明,农产品供应链对农户减贫增收具有正向作用,加入农产品供应链能显著增加农户收入,而且对欠发达地区的作用发挥优于发达地区。有无加工销售、农产品出售渠道、对供应链管理认可程度等供应链融入状况关键因素对农户减贫增收影响明显。因此,重视采取整合区域农业资源与要素,培育优势农产品供应链;协调农产品供应链主体关系,构建小农户稳定融入机制;加快农村基础设施建设步伐,深入推进农业市场化改革进程等优化措施,方能充分发挥农产品供应链对农户减贫增收的带动效应。     

Do credit constraints affect households’ economic vulnerability? Empirical evidence from rural China

Poverty alleviation is still one of the major challenges in developing countries, especially in transitional economy like China. From the perspective of anti-poverty, this paper examines the impact of formal credit constraints(FCCs) and informal credit constraints(IFCCs) on economic vulnerability(EV) using the data from the China Household Income Project(CHIP) survey for 2013(CHIPs 2013) of rural households. The potential endogeneity problem of credit constraints(CCs) is addressed by applying the control function approach within an ordered probit model. The results show that both FCCs and IFCCs have a robust positive and significant impact on the EV of rural households and that the impact of FCCs is greater than that of IFCCs. To identify the potential mechanisms through which CCs affect EV, the seemingly unrelated regressions are used and the potential intercorrelation among these mechanisms is examined. We find that the impact of CCs on EV is partly mediated by health, trust, per capita financial assets and per capita income, whereby health and per capita income contribute to most of the total indirect effect. Thus, policies focus on supply-side and demand-side to improve credit accessibility could reduce rural households' EV, especially through its positive effect on health and per capita income.     

Off-farm employment and poverty alleviation in rural China

Two phenomena in the history of China's economic growth during the last four decades are the increase in the share of offfarm employment and the progress in poverty alleviation in rural China. Although both of them have been well documented in the literature, less is known about the linkage between the two. To better understand the role that off-farm employment has played in poverty alleviation in rural China is critically important not only for China but also for those countries that are trying to reduce poverty. Here, we examine the impact of off-farm employment on poverty alleviation in rural China. Using the data from two nationally representative household panel surveys(China National Rural Survey and China Rural Development Survey), this paper provides supporting evidence that off-farm employment contributes to poverty alleviation in rural China. Specifically, if household participation in off-farm employment increases by 10 percentage points, the likelihood for a nonpoor household to fall into poverty will decrease by 0.88 percentage point whereas the likelihood for a poor household to climb out of poverty will increase by 3.5 percentage points. In a word, off-employment can not only prevent rural residents to fall into poverty but also help those already in poverty climb out of it.     

Paths out of poverty

正Introduction Ending poverty in all its forms everywhere is the first Sustainable Development Goal(SDG) of the United Nations(2021a). Progress towards this goal has varied but also been fruitful. Between 1990 and 2015, over a billion people were lifted out of extreme poverty(World Bank 2018). From 36% of the population under extreme poverty in 1990 to 10% in 2015(United Nations 2021b).     

The impact of the New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme on the “health poverty alleviation” of rural households in China

This study investigates the impact of the New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme(NRCMS) on rural households to escape poverty. We employ the instrumental variable method, the IVProbit model, to analyze the national data from the rural-resident field survey by the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS) in 2016. Based on the large-scale data, we found that, first, the hospitalization of family members is the key factor in increasing the risk of the family falling into poverty. The NRCMS has significantly reduced the likely risk of falling into poverty. Second, the impact of the NRCMS on poverty alleviation varies among groups with different levels of income. There is no impact on the upper-middle and high-income groups; in contrast, the NRCMS has substantially improved the capacity of low-income rural families to prevent poverty due to illness, especially for the lower-middle-income group. Third, there exist significant regional differences in the impact of NRCMS on the health poverty alleviation of rural households in China. The NRCMS has successfully reduced the risk of rural households in the western region falling into poverty, simultaneously, no significant impact on those in the eastern and central regions. In order to diminish and eliminate poverty eventually and boost rural residents' capacity for income acquisition, we propose the following: raise the actual compensation ratio of the NRCMS, control the rising expense of NRCMS by promoting the payment method reform, construct the comprehensive healthcare system in the western region, strengthen the medical security for the poor in remote area, and enhance the living environment for rural residents.     

农村新型金融组织发展的定位选择

运用系统分析方法,基于区域差异、经济活动内容与规模的差异等,分析了我国不同层次的农村金融需求。不同类型的金融需求主体,在金融需求上具有多元性、层次性的特点,需要不同的信贷方式和信贷机制进行满足。基于此,提出了农村新型金融组织差异化发展的定位选择:村镇银行应该主要设立在中西部地区以及第一产业占比高于全国平均水平的县域,主要扶持维持型农户、市场型农户和涉农中小企业,积极创新贷款品种;贷款公司和小额贷款公司可设立在具备发展潜力,经济与金融缺乏协作地区,立足于个体经营者、微小企业和农户,不断探索贷款品种和方式的创新;在经济落后的贫困地区和相对闭塞的边远地区,适宜设立农村资金互助社,主要服务于农户和微小企业,尤其是贫困农户,为社员提供存款、贷款、结算等业务,并积极开展业务咨询服务,帮助社员脱贫增收。     

Income effects of poverty alleviation relocation program on rural farmers in China

This paper analyses the impact of the poverty alleviation relocation(PAR) program on rural household income and evaluates the heterogeneous income effects of various relocation modes, based on a panel dataset of relocated households from 16 counties in eight Chinese provinces. The results show that participation in the PAR increases the income of both rural and urban resettlers. More specifically, it has a significant positive effect on agricultural and wage income for rural and urban resettlers, respectively. Further analyses show that the income increase for rural resettlers was mainly due to agricultural technology training and that the income increase for town resettlers was attributed to medical security. For the village resettlers, policies should focus on strengthening the development of local industries and training of agricultural technologies. For the urban resettlers, non-agricultural employment and public services in the urban resettlement areas should be promoted.     

贫困农户小额信贷获取的决定因素分析

在摆脱贫困发展经济的过程中,资金起着十分重要的作用。与财政投资和社会捐赠等相比,信贷则是一种最为适合农村特别是贫困农户摆脱贫困、扩大生产的资金来源。在我国,小额信贷已经得到推广,但是贫困农户获取小额信贷的需求与供给不平衡现象严重。该研究基于在湖北省农村的问卷调研数据,运用离散选择模型,实证研究了贫困农户小额信贷获取的决定因素。结果表明,家庭收入、自营职业和官方地位是农户获得小额信贷的3大影响因素。偿还能力和获得小额信贷之间密切相关,说明提高农户的债务偿还能力有助于他们获得小额信贷。     

山东省旅游扶贫村发展困境与路径分析——以典型案例村为例

旅游扶贫作为国家脱贫攻坚战略的重要组成部分,是产业扶贫的主要方式之一,是欠发达乡村地区全面建成小康社会的重要推动力量。基于RHB(Resource-Humanity-Benefit)开发战略,以山东省旅游扶贫村为研究对象,采用调查分析法和统计分析法,分析山东省旅游扶贫村的发展模式及其发展困境,探讨旅游扶贫发展路径。结果表明,山东省旅游扶贫以贫困户为中心,乡村精英引领,景区、企业赋能赠权,贫困户积极参与,旅游扶贫成效显现,至2018年底直接带动17 886户脱贫,90%扶贫村的贫困人口受益。山东省旅游扶贫村主要形成了依托景区型、农户自组织型、合资共建型等发展模式。但旅游扶贫村仍存在乡村旅游规划不完善、主题定位不明晰、发展特色不突出、管理水平不专业、政策因素不可控等发展困境。建立立体化的旅游扶贫战略体系,不断提升扶贫村旅游核心竞争力和贫困人口的内生造血发展力是当务之急。因此,为优化旅游扶贫村的发展路径,提出依据乡村发展地域类型分类推进开发;拓展多方合作渠道,聚合多源力量综合开发;打造乡村发展增长极,发挥示范带动效应等举措。     

黑竹沟自然保护区农户可持续生计研究

农户生计是“三农”问题的关键之一,探究贫困地区农户脱贫后的生计可持续发展水平,引导贫困地区农户完善生计结构,提高生计可持续性,对于巩固脱贫攻坚成果,促进乡村振兴具有一定的现实意义。以黑竹沟自然保护区农户为研究对象,通过入户访谈和问卷调查,运用熵值法评估农户生计资本状况,采用空间统计学方法分析农户生计资本与生计策略、贫困之间的相关性,得到影响生计策略和贫困的主要影响因子。结果表明:农户的生计资本总值为0.2421,生计可持续性较低;农户的金融和社会资本值相对较高,物质和自然资本值较低,生计资本整体不平衡;海拔和距中心点距离对农户贫困的发生率存在显著影响;生计策略对农户脱贫具有正向促进作用,受教育程度是影响家庭贫困的主要因素,亲友中的能人数量是影响家庭生计策略的主要因素,受教育程度越高,贫困程度越低,亲友提供帮助对生计策略的转变效果显著。在研究结果的基础上,提出了相应的政策建议,以期为贫困地区生计资本提升、生计策略调整和稳定脱贫提供参考。     

临汾市永和县农村贫困户就近就业现状及对策分析

根据山西省人民政府网站2020年2月28日讯,永和县达到贫困县退出相关指标,符合退出标准符合,正式退出贫困县。总结永和县脱贫经验,就业扶贫成为贫困户脱贫致富的重要措施。而农村就近就业作为就业扶贫的一种形式,既可以满足农村贫困户在本村从事农业生产种植,还可通过务工丰富收入来源,是一种适合永和县脱贫户脱贫致富的重要举措。文章以在永和县评估调查中收集的数据和观察的现象,分析永和县贫困户农村就近就业现状,总结就近就业开展过程中出现的问题,并提出相应的解决措施。     

生命历程视野下农村低保户精准脱贫的困境及应对——基于河南省的个案分析

通过对河南省部分地区的农村低保户进行调查访谈,结果发现,农村低保户仍存在着生活环境较为孤立,伴随疾病、失业等不幸事件发生,社会关系薄弱,无法自主脱贫的困境;运用生命历程理论对个案进行具体分析,提出政府部门应重视早期预防、强化临时救助、完善社会关系、进行资本投资等对策来帮助其进行精准脱贫。     

小额信贷缓减农村贫困的效用研究——基于面板模型的分析

缓减贫困一直是政府面临的重要问题,也是政府经济发展的重要目标。基于2003~2011年中国26个省市的统计数据,运用面板模型定量研究农村小额信贷缓解农村贫困的效应。结果表明：小额信贷具有显著的减贫效应,其降低农村绝对贫困的程度效应要大于降低农村贫困人口相对收入短缺和收入不平等程度的效应。为了更好地发挥小额信贷缓减贫困的效应,应进一步放开小额信贷发展的约束成分,改进贫困农户贷款评级授信的方式,提高小额信贷缓减贫困的精确度。     

市场提供农村公共产品对农户收入的影响分析

为探讨通过市场筹资渠道提供的公共产品对农户收入产生的影响及其影响机制,通过构建生产模型和消费模型,分别从农户收入和农户效用(公共产品消费)两方面揭示农村公共产品市场化供给对农户福利的影响机制,并采用陕西5个县20个村400户农户调研数据进行分析,发现市场提供的公共产品对农户收入有显著的正面效应。因此,建议中央政府在加大对农村的公共投资力度的同时,乡镇政府应创造市场筹资提供农村公共产品的更多渠道,实现农村公共产品供给的筹资多元化。     

Status and path of intergenerational transmission of poverty in rural China: A human capital investment perspective

This paper focused on the intergenerational transmission of poverty in rural China by estimating the intergenerational transmission of earnings and stated its mechanism from the perspective of human capital investment before children participated in the labor market. The data used in this study were longitude data collected in 2 000 households of 100 villages among 25 counties across five provinces in 2005, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2019. Qualitative and quantitative methods were adopted. We found a significant intergenerational transmission of earnings in rural China, especially for the pairs of father–children and parents–children. The intergenerational earnings' elasticities were much less than those in urban areas, which indicated better social mobility in rural areas than that in urban China. The children with parents who could earn much were more likely to be invested before they participated in the labor market, gain a high education and have more skills. Three cases further showed that the mechanism of human capital investment in children breaking the intergenerational transmission of poverty and promoting social mobility.     

中国农村贫困状况分析和消除农村贫困的思考

本文从相对贫困和人文贫困的概念出发,使用不平等和贫困的基本理论,从收入分配、文化教育和基本权利三个方面分析了中国农村的贫困问题,重点分析了贫困人口的地区和乡差距以及个人能力的差距;最后基于不平等的考虑,提出了缓解和消除农村贫困的思考：其基本思想是通过开发式扶贫,提高农村人口的自我发展能力,通过救济的方式做到扶贫到人,特别对妇女、儿童以及老、弱、病、残等缺乏能力的贫困者给予更多的关注。     

数字金融对农户多维相对贫困影响研究

随着现行标准下我国绝对贫困问题的解决,缓解多维相对贫困将成为新时代扶贫工作的重点,因此发挥数字金融优势缓解农户多维相对贫困具有重要的现实意义。基于中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）数据,采用A-F方法、Probit模型和中介效应模型,分析数字金融对农户多维相对贫困的影响,探讨其影响机制和地区异质性。结果表明,农户使用数字金融占比为39.7%,说明使用数字金融的农户数量仍相对较低。农户多维相对贫困以脆弱型和一般型相对贫困群体为主,发展能力已成为缓解相对贫困的关键维度,西部地区仍是我国相对贫困的集中区域。数字金融能够有效减缓农户多维相对贫困,对脆弱型多维相对贫困缓解效果更好,从不同维度来看,数字金融对缓解发展能力贫困和经济能力贫困影响程度更深;进一步地,数字金融能够通过提高农户金融素养缓解农户多维相对贫困现象。从异质性分析来看,数字金融能更好降低东部地区的农户多维相对贫困发生概率。据此,提出继续推进农村和中西部地区数字化建设,加强数字金融相关知识技能的宣传与针对性指导,推进数字征信在农村地区发展等政策建议。     

基于统计监测分析视角的农村扶贫开发问题与建议——以广州市为例

为加快推进精准扶贫精准脱贫,以广州市新一轮扶贫开发确定的贫困帮扶村作为样本,按照抽样调查原则,实施贫困监测。调查农村居民现金和实物收支、农村住户成员及劳动力从业、农村居民家庭食品和能源消费、住房和耐用消费品拥有等情况。根据对调查样本的监测分析,总结扶贫开发取得的主要成效,指出扶贫开发存在的问题,从建立村级巩固脱贫成果长效机制,激发贫困户内生脱贫动力,大力推进产业扶贫、带动贫困户脱贫致富,强化劳动技能培训、提高劳动力素质,整合扶贫资源、建立贫困村产业示范园,发展特色产业、培育"一村一品",加强对贫困户宣传教育、推广教育扶贫等方面提出相关对策建议。     

我国农户贫困持续性及决定因素分析——基于相对和绝对贫困线的再审视

我国的扶贫战略自改革开放以来获得了巨大成功,农户贫困率降低十分显著,但随着扶贫的深入,消除剩余贫困的难度也不断增大。基于浙江、湖北、云南三省1 362户农户持续10年的微观调研面板数据,综合采用统计指标和计量模型方法,分析了我国农户贫困的持续性特征及其主要影响因素。研究表明,虽然我国农户贫困主要是暂时性的,但随着贫困标准的提高,持续性贫困人口比例将显著增加,且区域分布不均衡,东西部在贫困的广度和深度上都存在显著差异。农户个体的人力资本和社会资本是其脱离持续性贫困的重要影响因素。此外,减少社会排斥将促进弱势农户提高社会资源积累,有助于农户脱离长期贫困。分散收入风险,也有利于农户摆脱长期贫困。除了人力资本、社会排斥性、收入风险等对农户贫困持续性产生影响外,地区资源禀赋,尤其是市场经济条件差异会对农户持续性贫困产生显著影响。当农户长期处于贫困,这表明其脱离贫困的难度更大,可行能力被剥夺的程度更深,应当是扶贫政策关注的重点。