Variability in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation through a glacial-interglacial cycle

The El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most potent source of interannual climate variability. Uncertainty surrounding the impact of greenhouse warming on ENSO strength and frequency has stimulated efforts to develop a better understanding of the sensitivity of ENSO to climate change. Here we use annually banded corals from Papua New Guinea to show that ENSO has existed for the past 130,000 years, operating even during "glacial" times of substantially reduced regional and global temperature and changed solar forcing. However, we also find that during the 20th century ENSO has been strong compared with ENSO of previous cool (glacial) and warm (interglacial) times. The observed pattern of change in amplitude may be due to the combined effects of ENSO dampening during cool glacial conditions and ENSO forcing by precessional orbital variations.     

Eocene El Niño: evidence for robust tropical dynamics in the "hothouse"

Much uncertainty surrounds the interactions between the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and long-term global change. Past periods of extreme global warmth, exemplified by the Eocene (55 to 35 million years ago), provide a good testing ground for theories for this interaction. Here, we compare Eocene coupled climate model simulations with annually resolved variability records preserved in lake sediments. The simulations show Pacific deep-ocean and high-latitude surface warming of approximately 10 degrees C but little change in the tropical thermocline structure, atmosphere-ocean dynamics, and ENSO, in agreement with proxies. This result contrasts with theories linking past and future "hothouse" climates with a shift toward a permanent El Ni?o-like state.     

Permanent El Niño-like conditions during the Pliocene warm period

During the warm early Pliocene (approximately 4.5 to 3.0 million years ago), the most recent interval with a climate warmer than today, the eastern Pacific thermocline was deep and the average west-to-east sea surface temperature difference across the equatorial Pacific was only 1.5 +/- 0.9 degrees C, much like it is during a modern El Ni?o event. Thus, the modern strong sea surface temperature gradient across the equatorial Pacific is not a stable and permanent feature. Sustained El Ni?o-like conditions, including relatively weak zonal atmospheric (Walker) circulation, could be a consequence of, and play an important role in determining, global warmth.     

Continental-scale partitioning of fire emissions during the 1997 to 2001 El Niño/La Niña period

During the 1997 to 1998 El Ni?o, drought conditions triggered widespread increases in fire activity, releasing CH4 and CO2 to the atmosphere. We evaluated the contribution of fires from different continents to variability in these greenhouse gases from 1997 to 2001, using satellite-based estimates of fire activity, biogeochemical modeling, and an inverse analysis of atmospheric CO anomalies. During the 1997 to 1998 El Ni?o, the fire emissions anomaly was 2.1 +/- 0.8 petagrams of carbon, or 66 +/- 24% of the CO2 growth rate anomaly. The main contributors were Southeast Asia (60%), Central and South America (30%), and boreal regions of Eurasia and North America (10%).     

Unraveling the mystery of Indian monsoon failure during El Niño

The 132-year historical rainfall record reveals that severe droughts in India have always been accompanied by El Ni?o events. Yet El Ni?o events have not always produced severe droughts. We show that El Ni?o events with the warmest sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific are more effective in focusing drought-producing subsidence over India than events with the warmest SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The physical basis for such different impacts is established using atmospheric general circulation model experiments forced with idealized tropical Pacific warmings. These findings have important implications for Indian monsoon forecasting.     

El Niño-like pattern in ice age tropical Pacific sea surface temperature

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the cold tongue of the eastern equatorial Pacific exert powerful controls on global atmospheric circulation patterns. We examined climate variability in this region from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the present, using a SST record reconstructed from magnesium/calcium ratios in foraminifera from sea-floor sediments near the Galápagos Islands. Cold-tongue SST varied coherently with precession-induced changes in seasonality during the past 30,000 years. Observed LGM cooling of just 1.2 degrees C implies a relaxation of tropical temperature gradients, weakened Hadley and Walker circulation, southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and a persistent El Ni?o-like pattern in the tropical Pacific. This is contrasted with mid-Holocene cooling suggestive of a La Ni?a-like pattern with enhanced SST gradients and strengthened trade winds. Our results support a potent role for altered tropical Pacific SST gradients in global climate variations.     

The Pliocene paradox (mechanisms for a permanent El Niño)

During the early Pliocene, 5 to 3 million years ago, globally averaged temperatures were substantially higher than they are today, even though the external factors that determine climate were essentially the same. In the tropics, El Ni?o was continual (or "permanent") rather than intermittent. The appearance of northern continental glaciers, and of cold surface waters in oceanic upwelling zones in low latitudes (both coastal and equatorial), signaled the termination of those warm climate conditions and the end of permanent El Ni?o. This led to the amplification of obliquity (but not precession) cycles in equatorial sea surface temperatures and in global ice volume, with the former leading the latter by several thousand years. A possible explanation is that the gradual shoaling of the oceanic thermocline reached a threshold around 3 million years ago, when the winds started bringing cold waters to the surface in low latitudes. This introduced feedbacks involving ocean-atmosphere interactions that, along with ice-albedo feedbacks, amplified obliquity cycles. A future melting of glaciers, changes in the hydrological cycle, and a deepening of the thermocline could restore the warm conditions of the early Pliocene.     

Cool La Niña during the warmth of the Pliocene?

The role of El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in greenhouse warming and climate change remains controversial. During the warmth of the early-mid Pliocene, we find evidence for enhanced thermocline tilt and cold upwelling in the equatorial Pacific, consistent with the prevalence of a La Ni?a-like state, rather than the proposed persistent warm El Ni?o-like conditions. Our Pliocene paleothermometer supports the idea of a dynamic "ocean thermostat" in which heating of the tropical Pacific leads to a cooling of the east equatorial Pacific and a La Ni?a-like state, analogous to observations of a transient increasing east-west sea surface temperature gradient in the 20th-century tropical Pacific.     

2015/16年El Ni?o事件对中国气候及农业的影响

2015/16年El Ni?o事件属于混合型极端事件,其发生于2015年春季,于该年冬季发展至鼎盛期,此后开始逐渐消退,至2016年春末夏初完全消失。在此期间,其对中国的气候和农业生产造成了极大影响。在El Ni?o发展前期,中国大部分地区出现低温冷害,且降水量偏少,导致干旱灾情,使得该时期的农作物多发育不良或缺水而死,产量大大减少。当事件发展至成熟期及来年春季,中国东部气温有所上升,但东北和华北中东部等地区气温仍呈低温状态,影响着冬小麦等农作物的春播。与此同时,中国南部降水量开始增多,尤其是到了2016年夏季,长江流域及其以南地区出现严重的洪涝灾害,冲毁、淹没农田,大量农作物被淹死,给农业经济造成极大损失。     

El Ni?o事件消亡期亚洲季风区对流层上层经向热力差异的演变

采用NOAA1979—2019年的南方涛动SOI指数、GPCC降水数据和ERA5气温数据探究El Ni?o事件消亡期亚洲季风区对流层上层海陆热力差异的演变特征。El Ni?o事件衰减期按所处季节可分为春季型、秋季型和冬季型,其中冬季型衰减对季风区对流层上层经向热力差(TI_up)的贡献最大,且热力差异在冬季达到最大;春季型衰减会使伴随长江中下游夏季降水增加,秋季型衰减会使长江中下游夏季降水减少,冬季型衰减会使华北大部分地区夏季降水增多,只有华南、西南及东北部分地区降水略有减小。