Analysis of cattle movements in Argentina, 2005

We describe the movement of cattle throughout Argentina in 2005. Details of farm-to-farm and farm-to-slaughter movements of cattle were obtained from the Sanitary Management System database (Sistema de Gestión Sanitaria, SGS), maintained by the National Service for Agrifood Health and Quality (SENASA). Movements were described at the regional and district level in terms of frequency, the number of stock transported, the district of origin and destination and Euclidean distance traveled. Social network analysis was used to characterize the connections made between regions and districts as a result of cattle movement transactions, and to show how these characteristics might influence disease spread. Throughout 2005 a total of 1.3 million movement events involving 32 million head of cattle (equivalent to approximately 57% of the national herd) were recorded in the SGS database. The greatest number of farm-to-farm movements occurred from April to June whereas numbers of farm-to-slaughter movement events were relatively constant throughout the year. Throughout 2005 there was a 1.1-1.6-fold increase in the number of farm-to-farm movements of cattle during April-June, compared with other times of the year. District in-degree and out-degree scores varied by season, with higher maximum scores during the autumn and winter compared with summer and spring. Districts with high in-degree scores were concentrated in the Finishing region of the country whereas districts with high out-degree scores were concentrated not only in the Finishing region but also in Mesopotamia, eastern Border and southern Central regions. Although movements of cattle from the Border region tended not to be mediated via markets, the small number of districts in this area with relatively high out-degree scores is a cause for concern as they have the potential to distribute infectious disease widely, in the event of an incursion.     

Prevalence of brucellosis and infectious bovine rhinotracheitis in organized dairy farms in India

This study was carried out to investigate the prevalence of bovine brucellosis and infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR) in organized dairy farms with history of abortion in India. ELISA and Rose Bengal Plate Test (RBPT) were used to detect the seropositive animals and the test results indicated that 22.18% and 13.78% animals were declared as sero-positive by ELISA and RBPT, respectively. Milk Ring Test (MRT) was carried out only in one farm and 12.82% of the tested animals were turned positive. Culture examination analysis of milk samples, two animals revealed the presence of organisms indistinguishable from Brucella spp. The organism was confirmed as brucella by morphological characteristics and biochemical tests. An overall sero-prevalence of antibodies against IBR was found to be 60.84%. None of the genital and nasal swab samples was found to be positive for presence of bovine herpesvirus -1 (BHV-1) on repeated passage in Madin-Darby Bovine Kidney (MDBK) cell lines. Brucella and IBR considered as the causal agent for abortions in these farms. The present study indicates the urgent need and the necessity for control of these infectious diseases which cause heavy economic losses to the organized farms.     

Prevalence of Salmonella spp. on Canadian pig farms using liquid or dry-feeding

The objective of this study was to determine whether the shedding and antibody titre to Salmonella was lower for pig herds provided liquid-feed compared to those on traditional dry rations. Twenty liquid-feeding farms and 61 dry-feeding farms were selected. The amount of antibodies to Salmonella in sera from 15 finisher pigs on each of 80 Ontario swine farms was analyzed by means of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). In addition, the presence of Salmonella on the 20 liquid-feeding farms and 21 of the dry-feeding farms was assessed by culture of 15 fecal samples taken directly from finisher pigs and five pooled pen-fecal samples at each farm.

A cut-off of OD% 10 was used. The Salmonella sero-prevalence differed between the two groups of farms. At least one pig tested sero-positive on 98% of the dry-feeding farms and 84% of the liquid-feeding farms (P < 0.05). A multi-variable mixed linear regression model with the farm as a random variable and farm factors as the fixed effects was fitted. Crude optical density (OD) of the individual pig was considered as the continuous dependent variable. Dry-feeding and antimicrobial daily usage was associated with crude OD (P < 0.05). In addition, crude OD increased with increasing herd size (P < 0.05).

Salmonella was isolated from 25 out of 420 fecal samples (6%) from dry-feeding farms compared to three out of 400 samples (0.8%) from liquid-feeding farms. Eight of the dry-feeding farms (38%) tested positive compared to only three of the liquid-feeding farms (15%). Salmonella was also recovered from the pen environment on five dry-feeding farms but were not isolated from the facilities using liquid-feeding. Salmonella Typhimurium was isolated from four farms in the dry-feed group and on one farm with liquid-feeding. The one S. Typhimurium isolate from the liquid-feeding farm exhibited no antimicrobial resistance, but those from dry-feeding farms were resistant to four or more antimicrobial agents. The results of the logistic regression, with farm as a random effect showed that dry-feeding [OR = 2.7 (1.1–15.1)] and continuous flow system [OR = 2.3 (1.2–12.7)] increased risk of finding Salmonella in the individual pig.

These findings indicate that liquid-feeding and all-in all-out management of the grower–finisher barns can reduce the Salmonella prevalence.     

Factors influencing the prevalence of Salmonella spp. in swine farms: a meta-analysis approach

A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to identify study-level variables that could explain the variation in apparent Salmonella spp. prevalence estimates. Electronic and non-electronic literature searches from 1990 until 2005 were carried out to identify all studies related to the prevalence of subclinical Salmonella infection in swine. The searches were restricted to studies published in English, Spanish, and French. Clinical trials or any other study where an intervention was evaluated were excluded from this analysis. A template was designed to retrieve the most relevant variables and data abstraction was performed in duplicate. A total of 98 papers containing 82 animal-level and 156 farm-level studies were used in the analyses. The median farm-level and animal-level prevalences were 59% and 17%, respectively. Meta-regression analyses were carried out on both farm and animal-level data. Diagnostic procedure, sample size, and country where study was conducted were the three most important predictors in explaining the differences in Salmonella prevalences between studies. When compared to a farm with a apparent prevalence of 50% determined by the blood ELISA, prevalences based on culture of fecal samples were 39% lower and prevalences based on cecum and tissue cultures were 16% and 19% lower, respectively. Similar to farm-level models, animal-level models did not show any difference among serological tests and prevalence values based culture procedures were, on average, 9% lower than those from serological tests. Sample size was negatively associated with prevalence estimates. In conclusion, the methodology was useful for identifying and quantifying sources of variation in Salmonella apparent prevalence among studies and for establishing prevalence distributions that could be used as input parameters in risk assessment and decision models. The analysis provides some guidelines when interpreting and comparing apparent Salmonella prevalence results from studies using different study designs.     

Estimation of litter size variability phenotypes in Large White sows

The objective of this study was to obtain new phenotypes of phenotypic variability for the total number born (TNB) in pigs using the residual variance of TNB. The analysis was based on 246,799 Large White litter observations provided by Topigs Norsvin. Three animal models were used to obtain estimates of residual variance for TNB: the basic model (BM) containing fixed effects of farm–year and season and random effects of animal and permanent environmental sow, the basic model with an additional fixed effect of parity (BMP) and a random regression model (RRM). The within-individual variance of the residuals was calculated and log-transformed to obtain three new variability traits: LnVarBM, LnVarBMP and LnVarRRM. Then, (co)variance components, heritability, the genetic coefficient of variation at the standard deviation level (GCV_SDe) and genetic correlations between the three LnVar's and between the LnVar's and mean total number born (mTNB) were estimated with uni-, bi- and trivariate models. Results indicated that genetically LnVar's are the same trait and are positively correlated with the mTNB (~0.60). Thus, both traits should be included in breeding programmes to avoid an increase in TNB variability while selecting for increased TNB. Heritability of the LnVar's was estimated at 0.021. The GCV_SDe for LnVar's showed that a change of 8% in residual standard deviation of TNB could be obtained per generation. Those results indicate that phenotypic variability of litter size is under genetic control, thus it may be improved by selection.     

Risk factors for bovine tuberculosis in New Zealand cattle farms and their relationship with possum control strategies

This paper reports the investigation of farm-level risk factors for confirmed bovine tuberculosis (TB), based on a retrospective cohort study of a population of cattle in the lower North Island of New Zealand. Data were obtained from the TB testing surveillance programme operational in this area since the mid-1970s and comprised 190,665 cattle-years at risk from July 1980 to June 2004 (inclusive). A mixed-effects Poisson regression model was used to investigate the influence of farm-level covariates on the number of cattle confirmed with TB throughout the study period. This model was interpreted in context of depopulation strategies for the wildlife reservoir for TB, the brushtail possum Trichosurus vulpecula, that were applied in this area. The model showed that, despite intensification of possum control strategies over time, proximity to forest parks (a principal possum habitat in this area) remained a significant predictor of the number of confirmed cases of TB detected per farm per year. Our analyses showed a significant, three-fold increase in TB risk in dairy cattle relative to beef conditional on the size of local possum habitat, and confirmed the positive influence of cattle population size and the presence of previous infection status as a determinant of the number of confirmed TB cases per farm per year.     

Seroprevalence of and risk factors for infectious bovine rhinotracheitis in beef cattle herds of Yucatan,Mexico

The main objective of this cross-sectional study was to estimate the seroprevalence of infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR) in a population of non-vaccinated beef cattle in the livestock region of Yucatan, Mexico and to determine potential risk factors related to the seroprevalence. Also, we estimated the intraherd correlation (r_e) and design effect (D) of IBR seropositivity. Cattle were selected by two-stage cluster sampling. Blood samples were collected from 564 animals from 35 herds. Sera were tested for antibodies against IBR using the serum-neutralisation test. Information regarding the herd and each animal sampled were recorded through a personal interview with the farmer or farm manager. The data were analysed using fixed-effects logistic multiple regression. Thirty-four of the 35 herds had at least one seropositive animal. The animal true seroprevalence was 54.4%. Animals in large herds or in production had higher odds of seropositivity than those in small herds or growing. The r_e and D were 0.17 and 3.62, respectively.     

Prevalence of subclinical coccidiosis in broiler-chicken farms in the municipality of Mashhad, Khorasan, Iran

A survey of the prevalence of subclinical coccidiosis in broiler-chickens was conducted in the municipality of Mashhad, Khorasan, Iran. Eighty-four chicken farms were randomly selected; from each farm, five birds per 10 000 were sampled (as was litter). Serial scraping of the intestinal lining was done in chicks at 3rd and >6th week of age.

The farm-level prevalence of subclinical coccidiosis was 38% (95% CI: 28, 48.47%). Uni- and multi-variable associations were tested between each variable. An increased risk of infection in the broiler was associated with the larger farm, with older chickens, and if the chicken farm were sampled in the winter or spring, using coccidiostat in the food was not associated. The peak oocyst score in the litter occurred at >6th week of age. Most farms (97%) had E. acervulina; (41%) had E. maxima and (12%) had E. tenella.     

Prevalence of antibodies to infectious bovine rhinotracheitis, parainfluenza 3, bovine respiratory syncytial, and bovine viral diarrhea viruses in cattle in Saskatchewan and Alberta

A total of 1745 healthy cattle from 295 farms in Saskatchewan and Alberta was tested by ELISA for antibodies to four viruses. Antibodies to infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR) virus were found in 37.8% of sera (59.5% of properties), to parainfluenza 3 (PI3) virus in 93.9% of sera (99.7% of properties), to bovine respiratory syncytial (BRS) virus in 78.5% of sera (86.6% of properties), and to bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) virus in 40.6% of sera (66.7% of properties)

The prevalence of PI3 viral antibodies among Saskatchewan cattle was not affected by district of origin, breed, sex, age, or vaccination practices, though BRS viral antibodies appeared less frequent in young, male, and unvaccinated animals. Antibodies to IBR and BVD viruses were less prevalent in the Prince Albert/Tisdale districts and in young, male, and unvaccinated animals, but were more common in Holstein cattle. Antibodies to IBR virus appeared less frequent in Herefords. Antibodies were more prevalent in cattle which had been vaccinated against IBR, BRS, and BVD virus infections.

The relatively small number of cattle sampled from Alberta had a similar prevalence of antibodies to PI3 and BRS viruses to that seen in cattle in Saskatchewan, though IBR and BVD prevalence rates were lower.

     

Regionalisation of Germany by data of agricultural structures

In order to simplify the design of representative studies in animal populations the structural differences of animal husbandry (cattle, pigs and laying hens) in Germany were characterised. Several regions were defined and thus districts identified which are typical for the respective region and can be regarded as representatives for the whole region. Data on animal husbandry as well as human population per district originated from the Federal Statistical Office and were linked to the geometric data of the Federal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy. By this, data of "livestock units/square kilometre area" and "farms/square kilometre area" per district were calculated using methods of the spatial statistics Global Moran's Index, Anselin Local Moran's Index and Getis-Ord Gi*. With the help of these analyses six clusters could be identified which resulted in four large (Middle, Northwest, East, and South) and one smaller region (Northern Upper-Rhine) respecting the federal state borders. These regions differed significantly regarding animal and farm densities. The selection of typical districts was carried out with the help of the respective animal and farm data of the species pigs, dairy cattle and laying hens. The means of the selected districts (three to six per region) were within the 60%- and the 80%-percentile of at least two of the analysed variables. Concerning the region Northern Upper-Rhine no representative district was selected. This presented regionalisation including representative districts can be used for the design of scientific studies that are associated with animal husbandry in Germany.     

Sero-prevalence and risk factors study of brucellosis in small ruminants in Southern Zone of Tigray Region, Northern Ethiopia

This study reports a prevalence and risk factor survey of brucellosis in small ruminants in Southern Zone of Tigray Region, Northern Ethiopia between October 2011 and April 2012 to determine the sero-prevalence of small-ruminant brucellosis and to identify associated risk factors for the occurrence of disease in small ruminants under extensive production system. Multistage random sampling was followed to select locations, flocks, and individual animals. Laboratory analysis of serum samples provided sero-prevalence estimates for flocks and geographic location. Information on risk factors at the individual and flock level was obtained by examination of individual animal and a questionnaire interview to flock owners. The overall individual animal-level sero-prevalence of brucellosis in small ruminants was 3.5 % and flock level sero-prevalence was 28.3 %, and the within-flock sero-prevalence was ranged from 0 % to 22.2 % based on the Complement Fixation Test. Multivariable logistic regression showed that the major risk factors for flock level sero-positivity were flock size and abortion history. This study showed that small-ruminant brucellosis is prevalent in the study area. Larger flock size and history of previous abortion in the flock were major risk factors identified for sero-positivity of small-ruminant brucellosis.     

湖羊初生重性状影响因素分析及遗传力估计

【目的】研究旨在分析场、出生季节、出生月份、出生类型和性别对湖羊初生重性状的影响,并估计该性状的遗传力。【方法】运用SAS 9.2软件对2021年新疆地区3个规模化湖羊养殖企业共计4 570只母羊所产的8 352只羔羊初生重作非遗传因素分析,使用DMU软件对湖羊初生重性状进行方差组分估计,并使用两种单性状动物模型估计该性状的遗传力,根据赤池信息准则(Akaike’s information criterion,AIC)确定最佳固定效应组合和动物模型。【结果】场、出生季节、出生月份、出生类型和性别对湖羊的初生重均有极显著影响(P＜0.01)。场1和场2羔羊初生重无显著差异(P＞0.05),且均极显著大于场3羔羊的初生重(P＜0.01);冬季出生的羔羊的初生重整体较大,其中以1月出生的羔羊初生重最大;出生类型越丰富,其羔羊初生重越小,各出生类型间羔羊初生重均呈现出极显著差异(P＜0.01);根据单性状动物模型(考虑母体效应)的计算得出,湖羊初生重性状的直接、母体、总体遗传力分别为0.251、0.668、0.211,属于中等遗传力。【结论】在对羊场首年的生产数据分析时,选用出生月份作为时令因素相比出生季节更为合适,不仅可以剖析各月份养殖单位湖羊的生产情况以做出相应的繁殖计划调整,而且选用月份固效组可增加性状遗传参数估计值的准确性;对于湖羊初生重性状在不考虑母体效应的情况下,会导致该性状的遗传力估计值偏大,故在受母体效应影响较大的早期阶段理应优先考虑母体效应。     

Spatiotemporal dynamics and risk factors of rotavirus A circulation in backyard pig farms in a Philippine setting

Rotavirus A is one of the leading etiological agents of porcine gastroenteritis, a condition which results to stunted growth among piglets. Moreover, there is increasing evidence for zoonosis of rotavirus A (RVA), which is also the principal cause of diarrhea in children. In the absence of rigorous animal health monitoring in Philippine backyard farms, there is therefore a strong need for RVA surveillance. In this study, 30 randomly selected backyard farms were subjected to surveillance for RVA for 12 months. Results show that RVA detection at a monthly farm-level rate ranged from 0 to 52%, with an overall average of 23%. RVA had higher detection rates in adult pigs compared to young piglets and was most prevalent in non-diarrheic stools, indicating asymptomatic circulation of the virus. Spatiotemporal analysis demonstrated that the viral circulation exhibits a seasonal pattern that peaks and forms geographical clusters during the cooler months of the year, suggesting farm-to-farm transmission. Risk factor analysis identified specific farm conditions that increase the likelihood of RVA circulation: presence of gilts, larger herd size, presence of other animals, and abiotic factors such as low relative humidity and low altitude. The same analysis also revealed three major management practices that can help reduce the pressure of infection in these farms: sanitation and waste disposal, animal grouping, and diet. This new perspective on porcine RVA circulation will benefit the underprivileged backyard farmers and help empower them to protect both animal and public health.

     

Cost-effectiveness of bulk-tank milk testing for surveys to demonstrate freedom from infectious bovine rhinotracheitis and bovine enzootic leucosis in Switzerland

In Switzerland, annual surveys to substantiate freedom from infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR) and enzootic bovine leucosis (EBL) are implemented by a random allocation of farms to the respective survey as well as blood sampling of individual animals at farm level. Contrary to many other European countries, bulk-tank milk (BTM) samples have not been used for active cattle disease surveillance for several years in Switzerland. The aim of this project was to provide a financial comparison between the current surveillance programme consisting of blood sampling only and a modified surveillance programme including BTM sampling. A financial spreadsheet model was used for cost comparison. Various surveillance scenarios were tested with different sample sizes and sampling frequencies for BTM samples. The costs could be halved without compromising the power to substantiate the freedom from IBR and EBL through the surveillance programme. Alternatively, the sensitivity could be markedly increased when keeping the costs at the actual level and doubling the sample size. The risk-based sample size of the actual programme results in a confidence of 94,18 % that the farm level prevalence is below 0,2 %. Which the doubled sample size, the confidence is 99,69 % respectively.     

The estimation of live weight based on linear traits in indigenous Tswana goats at various ages in Botswana

The objective of this study was to determine the usefulness of some linear body measurements in predicting live weight in indigenous Tswana goats at various ages. Data for this study were obtained from 2,783 goats sampled from six agricultural regions of Botswana except for Tsabong and Ghanzi districts. Fifteen farmers keeping goats were randomly selected from each district and records taken on a random sample of 4–12 animals per farm depending on the 1999 Botswana Government average district flock size. Body measurements recorded were heart girth, height at withers, body length, shoulder width, and live weight. Information on age of each animal was estimated from dentition; flock size and sex of the animal were also recorded for each farm. Regression analysis using stepwise selection method in Statistical Analysis System was used to determine prediction equations for live weight with heart girth, height at withers, body length, and shoulder width as independent variables for male and female goats of different ages. In all models, heart girth contributed most in explaining variation in body weight as shown by high partial R ² which ranged from 0.48 for female mature to 0.80 for mature male goats. Using mean square error, R ², and Mallows’ C(p), the best prediction equations were for female and male kids (R ² = 0.83 and 0.82, respectively) and mature male goats (R ² = 0.82). The poorest model was for mature female goats with R ² = 0.57. Live body weight could be estimated with accuracy from linear body measurements in Tswana goats which are unique for each sex and age. More research is required to explore using these models to develop measuring tapes for use by resource poor farmers who keep indigenous Tswana goats.     

Descriptive spatial epidemiology of subclinical Salmonella infection in finisher pig herds: application of a novel method of spatially adaptive smoothing

We describe the spatial epidemiological features of the 6.8 million meat-juice serological tests that were conducted between 1995 and 2004 as part of the Danish swine Salmonella control programme. We investigated pig and farm density using edge-corrected kernel estimations. Pigs were aggregated at the county level to assess county-level risk, and then we investigated farm-level risk by giving farms a case or non-case label using a cut-off of 40% of pigs positive. Conditional probability surfaces, correcting for the underlying population at risk, were produced for each year of the study period using a novel kernel estimator with a spatially adaptive smoothing bandwidth. This approach improves on previous methods by allowing focussed estimation of risk in areas of high population density while maintaining stable estimates in regions where the data are sparse. Two spatial trends in the conditional probability of a farm being a case were evident: (1) over the whole country, with the highest risk in the west compared to the east; and (2) on the Jutland peninsula with the highest risk in the north and south. At the farm-level a consistent area of risk was the south-west of Jutland. Case farms tended to aggregate indicating spatial dependency in the data. We found no association between pig or farm density and Salmonella risk. We generated hypotheses for this spatial pattern of risk and we conclude that this spatial pattern should be considered in the development of surveillance strategies and as a basis for further, more detailed analyses of the data.     

蚌埠市某奶牛场IBRV和BVDV的血清学调查

本试验对蚌埠市一家未进行牛传染性鼻气管炎及病毒性腹泻免疫的规模化奶牛场的94份奶牛血清样品,分别使用牛传染性鼻气管炎及病毒性腹泻抗体ELISA试剂盒进行检测,共检出牛传染性鼻气管炎阳性血清65份,阳性检出率为69．15％;病毒性腹泻阳性血清83份,阳性检出率为88．30％。结果表明,该规模化奶牛场存在牛传染性鼻气管炎及病毒性腹泻的感染和接触史,应采取净化措施进行控制。     

Associations of veterinary services and farmer characteristics with the prevalences of brucellosis and border disease in small ruminants in Spain

We investigated the farm factors associated with the prevalences of brucellosis and border disease (BD) in small-ruminant herds in the Madrid region of Spain. These infections were used as models of diseases of well-known and totally unknown distribution, respectively, to assess the association between the perception of the importance of a given disease on the relative contributions of veterinary services and the farmer's attitudes to its prevention. Sera, farming-management information and data concerning veterinary assistance and farmer characteristics were collected from 60 sheep or goat herds. The overall sero-prevalence of brucellosis was 5.7% (complement fixation) and for BD was 17.9% (ELISA test). The relationship between sero-positivity and the variables in the questionnaire was assessed by multivariable analysis using random-effects logistic-normal regression. ‘Availability of veterinary services' was a major protective factor for brucellosis. In contrast, no association with veterinary services was observed for BD, whereas ‘membership in a farmers' organization' (a variable associated with good farming practice and animal care) was a protective factor. ‘Membership of a farmers' organisation' and two other farmer variables indicative of good husbandry (‘youth' and ‘schooling') were associated with a lower sero-prevalence of brucellosis in univariable analysis but they did not remain significant in the multivariable model. Our observations suggest that veterinary-activity variables predominate over non-specific protective farm factors related to good husbandry in the case the disease is subject to disease surveillance. This underscores the importance of organized control programs for veterinary services to be effective in terms of animal disease prevention.     

Estimating potential epidemic size following introduction of a long-incubation disease in scale-free connected networks of milking-cow movements in Ontario, Canada

We used the movements of adult milking cows among farms enrolled in the Dairy Herd Improvement (DHI) program in Ontario to explore the size of an epidemic that might result from farm-to-farm movements of cows in the Province if a reportable long-incubation infection like tuberculosis (TB) were introduced and not detected for 1-3 years after introduction. A directed network was created for each year (2004-2006) using all pairs of individual shipments, defined as the movement of one or more cows on a single day, from a single source DHI farm to a single recipient DHI farm. A 3-year network was also developed that included all cow shipments that took place during these 3 years. The lower and upper bounds of potential maximal epidemic size were estimated using four network-analysis measures: (1) the farm out-degree, (2) the size of the largest strong and weak components, (3) the bow-tie approach, classifying farms into six different areas of a directed network and (4) the infection chain of a farm. All four of the DHI movement networks were found to be small-world, indicating that infection could spread over considerable distances by shipments that linked potentially distant clusters of farms. The networks were also scale-free, indicating most farms had relatively few connections to other farms, while there were a few highly connected farms. Characterization of the yearly networks showed that 41-47% of DHI farms were not involved in any cow shipments and were therefore not at risk of infection from this movement network; furthermore, if infection were introduced into a DHI farm that shipped animals that year, the infection would have stopped at that farm (or at least, not been passed on by shipment of adult milking cows) >50% of the time, and 75% of the time only one more DHI farm would have become infected through animal movements. Compared to the infection chain, which accounted for both the direction and the time sequence of shipments in the movement network, the other network-analysis measures provided biased estimates of potential epidemic size. The bow-tie approach provided a schematic representation of the level of risk of each farm in the network in spreading an infection, but overestimated the lower- and upper-bound measures of potential epidemic size because it did not account for the time sequence of shipments. Our infection-chain results suggest that introducing a long-incubation disease into the network of farms enrolled in the DHI program in Ontario that was not identified until 12 months after the incursion would, in a worst-case scenario, have resulted in 168 farms (representing 5% of all Ontario DHI herds) being infected as a consequence of adult cow movements among DHI farms. This estimate increased to 850 farms (26% of all DHI herds) if the infection were not identified for 36 months.     

Effect of husbandry methods on seropositivity to African swine fever virus in Sardinian swine herds

Multiple logistic regression was used on serological data collected in the context of the Sardinian African swine fever (ASF) eradication program from pig farms in the province of Nuoro, Sardinia. The monthly percentage of ASFV-positive herds decreased significantly from October 1994 through March 1996 (P < 0.001). The farm-level risk of seropositivity to African swine fever virus (ASFV) was higher in free-range farms than in partial-confinement farms (odds ratios (OR) varied between 4.9 in October 1994, and 5.7 in March 1996, P < 0.001). The risk of infection for total-confinement farms was one-fifth of the risk for partial-confinement farms in October 1994 (OR = 0.2, P < 0.001), whereas in March 1996, the estimated OR was 0.57 and not significant (upper confidence limit = 1.1). The maintenance of ASFV in Sardinia was primarily associated with free-range pig farms. The natural logarithm of the number of pigs tested per visit in a farm was positively associated with the risk of herd seropositivity (OR = 2.6, P < 0.001).