Study on Application of Value - at - Risk to the Risk Evaluation of Construction Project Bidding

The value-at-risk(VaR) model is a statistical model to estimate and control financial risk,and used to measure the most probable loss on the next deal stage of financial asset portfolio.Based on the principle of the value-at-risk,in this paper the value-at-risk is to be applied to the risk evaluation of construction project.Assuming the sub-project prices abide by the BQ model are random variable which conform to normal distribution,this paper has built up the portfolio of project according to biding and quoted price of construction project,and adopted the variance-covariance method to measure the value-at-risk of the biding and quoted price in order to provide a feasible risk analysis tool for the evaluation of construction project bidding.     

The Evaluation System of Agent of Government Investment Project Based on AFD

According to analyses of the existing problems in the evaluation of agent of government investment project, combining with the characters of the substituted construction system of the government invested project and the project management, a performance evaluation index system of the agent of government invested project was constructed, fdlowing the basic principles of the index settlement. It introduces the AHP, the fuzzy evaluation mode, and the ADF comprehensive evaluation mode based on DEA, and gives some practical examples.     

Evaluation of Power Quality Based on the Method of Matter-element

The synthetic quantified evaluation for power quality is one of the gist to weigh excellent or inferior of the power quality, and this is propitious to realize the electricity-purchase principle of discussing the price according to quality and high quality high price, thereby serve as to build the equitable electric power market. This paper proposes to use the method of matter-element for power quality evaluation, and then build the model based on the method of matter-element. Considering the non-compatible feature between the single recognition and evaluation results as well as the complexity of the evaluation for power quality, a model is approached for the evaluation of the power quality by using the matter-element and extension set. Case results show that use the proposed model is objective and reasonable, with a special advantage when used in power quality evaluation.     

An Evaluating Method of Human Resource Value Based on Rough Set

As the development of knowledge economic , human resource has been the core of the world economic .So searching the reasonable evaluating and managing methods becomes one of the hot issues which have been concerned by people . Traditional evaluating methods of human resource are simple and direct , but they greatly depend on people's subjective judgement and experience . In order to overcome the default , this paper puts forward the method of synthetically evaluation on rough sets, which takes advantage of the rough sets theory, the concept of information entropy and relative analysis to filter the original indexes, then to standardize the importance degree of every index and get the weight of every index. Synthetically valuation model and corresponding arithmetic are summed up. Finally the sample illuminates the validity and feasibility of this method.     

基于CVM 的吉林省湿地生物多样性

湿地生态系统作为全球生态系统的重要类型之一,在维持生物多样性方面发挥着举足轻重的作用。为了更好地保护湿地,笔者基于条件价值法(CVM)这一当前国际上比较成熟的生态系统价值评价方法,对吉林省湿地的生物多样性维持服务价值进行定量评价。研究采用实地调研和网络发放结合的方式进行支付意愿问卷调查,共发放支付卡式问卷500份,回收有效问卷491份。结果表明,吉林省湿地2012年人均支付意愿值为120.7元/a,根据全国和吉林省人口总数计算的吉林省湿地生物多样性维持服务价值分别为1005.1亿元和20.8亿元。受访者受教育的程度、收入水平和对湿地生物多样性的关心程度对支付意愿具有显著影响,与平均支付意愿值呈显著的正相关关系(P<0.05),而性别和年龄对受访者支付意愿没有显著影响。调查方式和距离远近也会对支付值有显著影响(P<0.0001)。为了保护好吉林省的湿地生物多样性,政府应该加大宣传力度,提高公众的环保意识。研究结果将使湿地保护和开发的价值对比成为可能,对于制定合理的区域生态保护和经济开发决策、保护和恢复湿地生态系统具有重要意义,为政府相关政策的制定提供理论基础。     

宁夏盐池县基于熵值法的耕地集约利用评价

为了科学量度盐池县耕地资源集约利用水平,从而为盐池县农业生产制定相关政策和措施提供科学依据,笔者应用熵值法进行耕地集约利用综合评价,计算各指标权重,并以盐池县1990-2005年作为评价对象进行实证研究。结果表明：影响盐池县耕地利用集约度的各指标权重前4项为灌溉指数、劳均产粮、粮食单产、粮食安全系数;耕地利用对整个耕地利用集约度的影响最大,最低为耕地利用效益;盐池县的耕地集约利用还处于较低水平,耕地持续状况、耕地利用效益增长空间较大;影响盐池县耕地集约利用的主要单因子障碍是复种指数和人均耕地,影响盐池县耕地集约利用的主要分类障碍是耕地利用强度。耕地投入强度、利用强度和耕地利用效益间具有较强的相关性。客观因素决定的耕地利用程度影响主观耕地投入强度的积极性,共同影响耕地利用效益,最终形成耕地持续状态。     

基于敏感性分析的规模化养猪场沼气工程经济效益评价——以建瓯市健华猪业有限公司青州养殖场为例

基于敏感性分析方法,以建瓯市健华猪业有限公司青州养殖场为例对规模化养猪场沼气工程的经济效益进行评价。结果表明：规模化养猪场沼气工程的经济效益对政府补贴以及沼气、沼液和沼渣的利用率变动较敏感,应通过提高沼气工程项目副产品的利用率以及加大财政政策扶持力度等手段推进规模化养猪场沼气工程的持续健康发展。     

基于主成分分析的不同品种龙眼干品质综合评价

为评价不同品种龙眼干品质,构建综合评价体系,选取7个品种龙眼干对其12个理化指标进行测定,并结合主成分分析、聚类分析等方法对龙眼干品质进行综合评价.结果表明:所取龙眼干品种品质指标间差异显著,还原糖与总糖、可溶性糖与总糖、蛋白质与还原糖均呈极显著正相关(P＜0.01),氨基酸与可溶性糖呈极显著负相关(P＜0.01);主成分分析显示,前4个主成分累计方差贡献率达86.511％;通过综合得分进行排名可知,古山二号和石硖为品质较优品种;通过聚类分析得出,7个品种龙眼干可聚为3类,不同类别间品质存在较大差异,通过K值聚类分析将7个品种龙眼干聚为A、B、C三类,其品质从高到低依次为C类(古山二号、石硖)＞B类(FD310、储良)＞A类(草埔、凤大晚香、凤大晚蜜).聚类分析结果与主成分得分对龙眼干品种分类的判定结果较为一致,均可用于综合评价龙眼干品种品质.     

基于网络DEA的农产品供应链综合评价方法研究

为了促进农产品生产资源配置合理化、提高农产品供应链整体运行效率,对农产品供应链进行了综合评价分析。针对传统DEA方法忽略了供应链内在结构机理等问题,提出了基于网络DEA(Network DEA-NDEA)的供应链综合效率评价模型,并对2010—2012年黑龙江省各地区的农业生产现状进行实证分析和模型应用。结果表明：相比传统DEA方法,网络DEA对有效性的要求更高,能够给出更多的信息,评价结果更加合理。该评价模型更符合供应链网络结构特点及个体间相互协作关系,能够分析供应链内部结构中效率低下的具体环节,为优化资源配置、提高整体运行效率提供科学的依据和决策参考,提高评价的有效性和可靠性。     

基于熵权法的中国玉米产业系统安全度的模糊估算与分析

为了对中国玉米产业安全进行动态评价与变化趋势分析,采用基于熵权法和模糊综合评价法建立玉米产业系统安全综合评价模型,利用历史及预测数据对1999—2017 年玉米系统安全度进行估算,据此对中国玉米产业系统安全状态进行总体评价。结果表明：近年来中国玉米产业安全形势不容乐观,2007—2017 年中国玉米产业的安全状态波动加剧,玉米及其副产品进口量大幅增加,进口依赖性增强,国际资本对中国玉米产业股权控制加强则是影响玉米安全的主要因素。据此提出积极应对玉米产业外资进入、降低玉米进口国别依存度、努力掌握玉米贸易定价权等对策。     

Management System of the Tender and Bidding for Power Projects with a Valuation Based on the Bill of Quantities

Valuation based on the bill of quantifies will change the existing valuation mode of tender and bidding. For the standardized management of tender and bidding for power projects and the inteUigentized information management of power enterprises, it is an inevitable trend of reform to apply the valuation mode based on the bill of quantifies. According to the characteristics of power projects, this paper expounds the working process of the valuation mode based on the bill of quantities and analyzes the goal and function need of the tender and bidding management system. Considering the calculation procedure of the valuation and the quote strategy of quantities bill, the composition of fees for the valuation is settled and the calculation method is designed. To establish the management system of tender and bidding with a valuation based on the bill of quantities is beneficial for the costing reform of power projects and the perfection of the tender and bidding market. Therefore it is of great significance to spread the new management mode of project costing with a valuation based on the bill of quantities.     

Evaluation on Technology Innovation ability in Construction Industry in 31 Provinces and Cites of China Based on Factor Analysis

From the statistical data is not difficult to find, the growth of construction industry has been falling, construction industry of the labor productivity and the rate of technical equipment is slow-moving. It shows that the Construction Industry is still in Ruggedly management mode in many areas, lacking of technological innovation. Therefore, the paper evaluate the technology innovation ability in construction industry in 31 provinces and cites of China using factor analysis, get the current status and find the difference, to find solutions for promote the technology innovation ability in construction industry.     

基于主成分和聚类分析的村域稻田土壤肥力评价

为了解贵州省安顺市西秀区文星村稻田土壤肥力状况,采用主成分与聚类分析相结合的方法,对研究区土壤肥力进行了评价。结果表明：研究区土壤肥力因子除pH、总孔隙度、毛管孔隙度变异系数小于10%,为弱变异外,其他变异系数在10%~100%之间,均为中等变异,有效养分硫、铁、锰等元素的变异相对较大,变异系数均大于75%。主成分分析表明,可归为6个主要成分的22个评价因子,其累计贡献率达74.26%,可以从一定程度上反应田区土壤的肥力标准概况。土壤综合肥力指标(IFI)值的得分为-1.7422~1.8230,聚类分析将其分为Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ 4个等级,所占样点比例分别为2.5%、52.5%、30%和15%。该方法能相对正确的对土壤养分供应能力及丰缺度作出评价,为稻田土壤的合理施肥提供参考依据。     

A Product BOM Management Method Based on Single Layer BOM

Bill of material of product is data about product structure, and plays an important role in product information management. The paper analyzed characteristics of product BOM, and put forward a product BOM management method based on single layer BOM, witch can well meet requirements of product BOM.     

基于GIS的库车县耕地土壤质量综合评价

土壤质量评价,是农业可持续发展研究的重要内容之一,对土地资源的科学利用和管理具有重要的现实意义。基于库车县实地采样数据,采用土壤质量指数综合评价模型(SQI),在ArcGIS地统计分析模块的支持下,对研究区土壤质量指数进行克里格(Kriging)空间插值。研究结果表明：库车县耕层土壤的质量指数多在0.3~0.6左右,少数区域的SQI值在0.3以下及0.6以上;在空间分布上,土壤质量指数总体上呈带状和斑块状分布,土壤综合质量在南北方向高于东西方向,且由绿洲中部向绿洲外围递减的变化趋势,研究区中部区域的土壤质量较周围区域的土壤质量好。     

基于密切值法的河北省市域农业循环经济综合评价

为了明确河北省及各地区间农业循环经济发展的差异,依据农业循环经济的“4R”原则,借鉴相关研究成果建立农业循环经济综合评价指标,采用密切值法,应用统计数据,对2009年河北省农业循环经济发展效果进行定量评价。结果表明,2009年河北省农业循环经济中,廊坊市发展最好,其次是唐山市、邯郸市、沧州市等市,邢台市、全省平均、秦皇岛市等市区相比河北省其他市区较差。发展社会经济的同时,一定要兼顾提高资源利用效率、减少环境污染的目标。     

基于叶形纸称重法的烤烟田间最大叶面积指数研究

为给科技人员正确应用烤烟叶面积相关指标提供参考依据,在现行优质烟生产条件下,针对14个基因型烤烟叶面积指数最大时期的关联指标进行研究。结果表明：采用叶形纸称重法测算烤烟叶面积校正系数是完全可行的。田间单株叶面积在1.84~2.90 m²,平均为2.08 m²;最大叶面积指数在3.07~4.83,平均为3.47。不同基因型烤烟之间,叶面积校正系数和最大叶面积指数差异较大,不宜采用某一常数值进行机械套用,而应针对特定品种进行探索。     

Research on Quality Supervision of Clusters of Engineering Projects Based on Science of Complexity

Based on the fundamental principles of science of complexity, the complexity of clusters of engineering projects is analyzed in the light of integrity, dynamics, gradation, openness and autonomy. It is believed that the quality supervision of clusters of engineering projects is a typical complex composed of several essential factors, between which there exists a complicated nonlinear relationship. The behaviors and manners of quality supervision are proposed including management evaluation, tree - shape quality supervision, model leading system, independent third - party assessment with a view to strengthen and enhance the quality supervision of clusters of engineering projects.     

基于灰色聚类法的大庆市油田开发区湿地水环境质量评价

探讨灰色聚类法在水质评价中的科学性,为大庆市油田开发区湿地水环境质量评价提供了方法学参考,并为松花江中下游水环境保护提供了相关依据。首先,分析了灰色聚类法、单因子污染指数法的基本原理,然后采用相关数学方法对各监测断面水质监测数据进行评价。结果表明,除万宝泡东北侧进水口、出水口桥下的水质为II类水质标准,龙凤湿地安肇新河为III类水质标准,水质较好外,其余监测点水质均为V类水质标准,水体污染严重。研究实例表明,相对于单因子污染指数法,灰色聚类法对水环境质量数据具有更高的利用能力及客观性。由于大庆市油田开发区周边有很多重要的湿地保护区,因此大庆市油田开发区湿地水质污染问题已不容忽视。