Multi-agent simulation of alternative scenarios of collaborative forest management

International calls for sustainable development advocate that forest management should be carried out in a multi-stakeholder environment. The importance of community participation is acknowledged in theIndonesian Act No. 41 on Forestry (1999). However, it is not clear how to achieve this in areas already allocated to a concession holder. Current regulations offer little flexibility for concessionaires to develop site-specific management, or to involve local communities in forest management. The research reported here examines the application of simulation techniques to explore scenarios of sustainable forest management addressing those limitations. Several scenarios have been developed using multi-agent simulation to examine social and biophysical issues. Of the four scenarios examined in this study, collaborative forest management involving both the concessionaire and the local community appears to offer the most promising pathway toward sustainability. The authors wish to acknowledge that this paper has been produced with financial support from Department for International Development of the UK, and the Asian Development Bank under RETA Grant 5812 and CIFOR. The views expressed here are those of the authors and can in no way be taken to reflect the official opinion of the donors or of CIFOR. The authors also thank Bruce Campbell for his inputs to the paper.     

Participatory modelling to enhance social learning,collective action and mobilization among users of the mafungautsi forest,Zimbabwe

Participatory modelling can be a useful process to encourage critical examination of livelihood options and foster sustainable natural resource use through enhanced social learning, collective action and mobilization. The broom-grass group in the Mafungautsi Forest Reserve serves as a case study of the process and outcomes of such participatory modelling. Innovative group facilitation methods enhanced participation in the modelling process. The modelling process complements broader efforts to achieve higher levels of adaptive collaborative management. This work was conducted as part of the Adaptive Co-Management project of CIFOR, the Center for International Forestry Research. We are grateful to the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) and the European Community for financial support of this project.     

Modelling interactions amongst people and forest resources at the landscape scale

FLORES, the Forest Land Oriented Resource Envisioning System, is a framework to facilitate quantitative modelling of ecological, economic and social issues at the landscape scale. This issue ofSmall-scale Forest Economics, Management and Policy describes the evolution of FLORES from a concept to a series of models calibrated for diverse locations, and documents the lessons learned. The idea to construct and use landscape-scale models of the forest frontier, based on simulating household decisions and land use at a spatial scale close to the field level, arose from a desire to add rigour to land-use policy research at CIFOR, the Center for International Forestry Research (Vanclay 1995). This simulation modelling approach to addressing interdisciplinary issues, where people are strongly interacting with forest resources, became known as FLORES, the Forest Land Oriented Resource Envisioning System (Vanclay 1998). Muetzelfeldtet al. (1998) constructed a simple prototype of a FLORES model to illustrate the concept and demonstrate the ability of a system-dynamics modelling environment to animate such a model (Muetzelfeldt and Taylor 1997, 2001, Muetzelfeldt and Massheder 2003). In 1999, FLORES became a reality, when 50 scientists from diverse disciplines met in Bukittinggi, Indonesia to construct the first FLORES model styled on this prototype (CIFOR 1999, Vanclayet al. 2003). The research reported in this special issue was made possible by generous financial support from the Department for International Development (UK), the European Community, the Asian Development Bank (under RETA 5812) and the Center for International Forestry Research. The views expressed herein are those of the authors alone. We would like to thank the following people who have assisted in the production of this special issue by acting as anonymous referees for these and other papers: Andy Warner, Brendan Moran, Bruno Verbist, Chris Dake, Chris Legg, Doug Sheil, Euan Mason, Francois Bousquet, Frank Vanclay, Geoff Slaughter, James Gambiza, John Herbohn, John Poulsen, Jungho Suh, Mike Spilsbury, Paul Phillips, Paul van Gardingen, Phil Norman, Philip Nyhus, Roger Wheate, Ross Sigley, Steve Harrison and Tom Evans. Thanks also to the editorial staff, especially Steve Harrison, John Herbohn and Jungho Suh, for making this special issue possible.     

Exploring the use of a dialogue process to tackle a complex and controversial issue in forest management

This article explores the use of a dialogue process to approach complex issues related to forest management. An interdisciplinary research team set up an experimental dialogue process concerning the use of introduced tree species in Southern Sweden for the purposes of climate change adaptation. The process involved stakeholders at a regional level, including those with divergent opinions regarding introduced tree species and their use in forestry. Through a process of repeated meetings and exchanges with researchers, the participant's knowledge was deepened and group relationships developed such that the group was able to jointly formulate a set of policy recommendations. The investigation revealed that dialogue processes may improve decision-making by identifying priorities for action or further research. However, when a collaborative process targets complex environmental issues on larger geographical and temporal scales, as matters about forests typically do, a collaborative process must be integrated with external actors and institutions in order to attain tangible outcomes. Consequently, to fully access the benefits of using collaborative processes to handle complex challenges in forest policy and management, the connections between political sphere, the private sector, authorities and research institutions must be concretely established.     

Admixing broadleaved to coniferous tree species: a review on yield, ecological stability and economics

For several reasons the conversion of mono-species into mixed-species forests is presently a major concern of forest management and policy in Central Europe. Although it is possible to show a clear trend in favour of mixed-species forests, private forest owners and some forest economists have often not favoured mixed forests, assuming that they are less profitable. The trend towards mixed forests seems mainly for ecological reasons, while sound economic analysis of mixed forests is still rare. Based on this background the objective of the study is to answer the following four questions: (1) Does the yield of mixed-species forests differ from that of pure forests? (2) Does the mixing of tree species influence the ecological stability of forests? (3) Is the economic value of a mixed forest less than that of a monoculture? (4) How do forest economic models integrate the findings on yield and ecological stability of mixed forests? To answer these questions a literature review was conducted on the possible impacts of mixed-species forests. In comparison to pure stands a greater yield is not necessarily given in mixed stands. Yet, mixed-species stands are better able to compensate disturbances than monocultures. Moreover, there is substantial evidence that mixed-species stands are more resistant against biotic and abiotic disturbances. Applying an extended forest economic model, it was possible to demonstrate that mixing large blocks of native broadleaf species into pure conifer forests may lead to a significant reduction of financial risk. From a risk-averse perspective the economic value of a mixed-species forest may thus be greater than that of a mono-species forest. Yet, it became clear that forest economists do not often integrate the research findings on yield and ecological stability of mixed stands in modelling, but rather apply simple bioeconomic modelling. Moreover, in the context of mixed forests economists also largely ignore even classical financial approaches, which consider risk and risk preferences. We concluded that forest economics has to close substantial research gaps. Firstly, the knowledge of how to integrate biophysical properties of mixed forests in bioeconomic modelling is still an open question. Secondly, forest economists have to adopt the modern approaches of financial theory and management science to value mixed forests.     

Combining scientific and stakeholder knowledge in future scenario development — A forest landscape case study in northern Sweden

Northern Swedish forests provide multiple ecosystem services. Integrating these values into the forest planning process frequently requires that not only forest owners but also other stakeholders be involved. The objective of this study is to assess the potential of future scenario development as a tool in forest planning. In a case study of the Vilhelmina municipality in northern Sweden, forest owners and stakeholders were interviewed, and a workshop was held to discuss important factors for the future development of the local landscape regarding ecological, socioeconomic and political issues. Combined with a researcher-conducted process, this resulted in three alternative scenarios. We conclude that the scenario development process has produced information that can be used in forest planning. The participatory element of the scenario development process could be extended further to enhance communication, learning and knowledge exchange. The participants' contribution to the scenario construction could also be elaborated, e.g., by further involving stakeholders in the formulation of alternative future manifestations and in the elaboration of scenarios. To achieve this, it is necessary to adapt the quantitative methods to the participatory situation, to foster discussion qualities, to secure representation and increase motivation for participation in different ways.     

Forest Landscape Development Scenarios (FoLDS)–A framework for integrating forest models,owners' behaviour and socio-economic developments

The FoLDS framework presented in this paper is set up to develop scenarios for forested landscapes with a transparent connection between the broad-scale developments in socio-economic factors and the ecosystem services provided. The forests that provide these ecosystem services are managed by a multitude of forest owners. Different forest owners have their own objectives and will thus adjust their forest management differently to socio-economic developments. The FoLDS framework breaks down the connection from socio-economic developments to the landscape level in three steps. In the first step, a structure is provided for deciding on scenarios combining the socio-economic factors that have most influence on forest owners. In the second step, the scenarios are translated to the distribution of forest management approaches in the landscape by invoking a behavioural matrix of forest owner types and forest management decisions. The third step involves the implementation of these forest management approaches in a forest modelling tool that is tailored to the specific landscape at hand. The results of these calculations are then translated to a set of indicators for the ecosystem services of interest. A survey among researchers experienced with the FoLDS framework indicates that there is an added value in systematically including both qualitative and quantitative scenario methods for forested landscapes.     

MyLand: a web-based and meta-model decision support system framework for spatial and temporal evaluation of integrated land use

This study developed an integrated decision support system (DSS) to assist land managers in taking a long-term holistic approach to integrated land-use decisions. “MyLand” is a unique combination of existing methods and techniques: meta-modelling calibrated off-productivity surfaces for spatial application, a decision tree for selecting options, multiple land-use analysis, multiple outputs and a mapping interface deployed over the Web. The design provides visualisation of geospatial information and enables multiple stakeholders to contribute to a more collaborative land-use planning process. Techniques to solve forestry modelling challenges have been generalised and applied in modelling pastoral and forestry land-use types. Forestry yield modelling is accommodated by a two-stage approach of spatial modelling of a productivity index followed by meta-modelling output from forest stand growth models. Livestock farming is modelled using the property owner's estimates of livestock carrying capacity of land management units in a whole property stock reconciliation model. The environmental performance of the property is calculated from the land-use type and management regime. A case study is described to demonstrate the use of “MyLand” and results of user evaluation of the DSS are presented.     

Developing indicators for the sustainable management of mountain forests using a modelling approach

Methods to monitor the sustainability of forest management on local to regional scales are currently being developed in Europe, based on Pan-European criteria. However, current approaches to indicator development have several shortcomings. First, they fail to integrate the links among indicators. Second, they do not address the factors giving rise to specific indicator values explicitly. Third, they select indicators with an emphasis on data availability or ease of measurement rather than on informational content. To overcome these problems, we propose using a modelling approach to indicator development. What modelling and indicator development have in common is that they both try to capture the essence of real, complex systems. In this paper, we present an initial attempt to develop indicators for the sustainable management of mountain forests, using a modelling approach. Key issues that make the sustainable management of mountain forests a challenge, such as the poor ability of many stands to fulfil current human needs, are identified. A conceptual model depicting the most relevant system elements and links is described. In contrast to the Pan-European criteria and concept areas of sustainable forest management, which are result-oriented, the elements in the conceptual model are process-oriented. The approach could lead to a better understanding of the factors influencing the decision-making at the management unit level and to the identification of a set of meaningful indicators. To evaluate its full potential, however, a simulation model should be developed based on the conceptual model, and be applied to case studies.     

CamFlores: A FLORES-type model for the humid forest margin in Cameroon

A FLORES-type model in the Simile modelling environment is being developed for three villages in the Humid Forest Benchmark area of southern Cameroon. The modelling project seeks to investigate the effects of introduction of new crop varieties and improved farming systems on the long-term maintenance of stable mosaics of forest and agriculture, within the context of the international Alternatives to Slash and Burn programme. Biophysical data have been collated, and socio-econnomic and tenure data have been acquired in spatially-explicit ways. Maps of land-cover at village and benchmark scale are being prepared from detailed and semi-detailed satellite imagery, using a nested legend system that allows linking of maps at different scales. These data enable the initial construction and parameterisation of the model, and will permit the extrapolation of the results of modelling from the villages to the benchmark, and ultimately to the whole of the Congo Basin humid forests. The prototype version of the model involves 10 households and about 500 land patches, and includes the three agricultural systems dominant in the southern more forested portion of the Benchmark (mixed food-fallow systems, forest melon fields, cocoa plantations) with no rental, sale or other transfer of land. Decision-making at the household level is essentially modelled deterministically, and labour productivity is assumed to be constant between households. This model is now complete, and once it has been adjusted and suitably parameterised, it will be applied to real data from the three test villages. This will require the addition of new farming systems, the introduction of modes of permanent or temporary transfer of land, and modification of the decision model to render it more realistic. The work described in this paper is a part of a project funded by the European Union through ICRAF and hosted at the IITA Humid Forest Ecoregional Centre, Cameroon. The assistance of Valentina Robiglio (JPO GIS specialist), especially in preparation of land-cover maps and in collection of socio-economic data, is gratefully acknowledged, as is the work of IITA ASB village facilitators in collection of field data. The cooperation of IITA, IRAD, CIFOR and ICRAF scientists in providing data for the model and periodically reviewing progress with the modelling process was essential to the progress achieved thus far.     

Benefits of forests in Cameroon. Global structure,issues involving access and decision-making hiccoughs

Among many other stakes, the economic stake derived from the exploitation of tropical forest resources is a burning issue. This is evidenced by insecurity in intergenerational access to forest resources and financial benefits relating to the latter, on the one hand, and by a deep iniquity at the intra-generational level, on the other hand. The following paper highlights, as a moral, social and policy dilemma, how stakeholders and generations, ‘self-interested’, mark out access to forest resources and to financial benefits relating to the latter. Through intensive participatory research, quantitative data collection, participant observation, future scenarios and some International Forestry Research's social science methods and interactive games (SSM & IG) based on the evaluation of the sustainability of forest management systems, field research conducted in the forest zone of Cameroon on access to forest resources has generated two central results. Firstly, future generations will be confronted—in a dramatic way—to quantitative and qualitative scarcity of forest resources, following their over exploitation by present generations. Secondly, as concerns the intra-generational access benefits generated by commercial exploitation of forests and the assessment of the circulation of forestry fees, there is much inequity, in as much as those benefits are more profitable to a ‘forestry elite’—‘a self-interested block’—than to local communities, who strongly claim to have historical rights over these forests. As a contribution of social science to public knowledge and to policy development, this article is nourishing ‘rational choice’ and ‘rational egoism’ theory and is targeting decision-making processes in the ever first attempt of forest management decentralization and ‘legal’ benefits sharing in Central Africa (the second largest forest of the World). The article recommends the shortening of the distance between decision-making and beneficiaries, downwardly accountability, ‘bottom-up’ mechanisms of public dialogue in forest management and a collaborative infrastructure in the circulation and the distribution of forest benefits.     

Multiple-use forest management in consideration of climate change and the interests of stakeholder groups

In this study, the overall utility of forest management alternatives at the forest management unit level is evaluated with regard to multi-purpose and multi-user settings by a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) method. The MCA is based on an additive utility model. The relative importance of partial objectives of forest management (carbon sequestration, ground water recharge, biodiversity, and timber production) is defined in cooperation with stakeholders. The forest growth model 4C (Forest Ecosystems in a Changing Environment) is used to simulate the impact of six forest management strategies and climate on forest functions. Two climate change scenarios represent uncertainties with regard to future climatic conditions. The study is based on actual forest conditions in the Kleinsee management unit in east Germany, which is dominated by Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and oak (Quercus robur L. and Quercus petraea Liebl.) stands. First, there is an analysis of the impact of climate and forest management on forest functions. Climate change increases carbon sequestration and income from timber production due to increased stand productivity. Secondly, the overall utility of the management strategies is compared under the priority settings of different stakeholder groups. From an ecological perspective, a conservation strategy would be preferable under all climate scenarios, but the business as usual management would also fit the expectations under the current climate due to high biodiversity and carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystem. In contrast, a forest manager in public-owned forests or a private forest owner would prefer a management strategy with an intermediate thinning intensity and a high share of pine stands to enhance income from timber production while maintaining the other forest functions.     

论干旱区森林可持续经营中的林牧关系

在森林中放牧是干旱区的传统,而且还会继续下去。但是,近几十年来的过度放牧已导致许多森林生态系统的退化,在发展中国家尤其如此。处理林牧矛盾的第一步是正确认识林牧关系,不能片面强调森林发展或牧业需要,而是要将其置于更广阔的社会、经济和文化背景中加以考察,必须兼顾所有各方的利益。否则,森林的保护与发展既无意义,也是不可能成功的。维持放牧强度与森林有限的恢复能力之间的平衡是一项长期的工作,需要不断完善政策法规、机构建设、公众参与方式、森林经营技术、以及资金投入机制,尤其需要注意的是,必须采取循序渐进的方式推行新的管理方式。加强科学研究,提高林牧交错区管理的科技含量,能够大大加速这一过程。     

森林的价值观

本文讨论了森林价值观的意义、现代科学对森林价值的研究水平、森林价值观的历史发展,论述了单纯经济价值观和分工价值观的后果及其局限性。森林的多重价值观以森林的多重价值具有紧密联系为基础。没有一个健康的生态系统,就没有生物多样性和良好的环境,也就谈不到林产品的持续生产。当前,以多重价值观为基本出发点的林业经营体系正在形成。     

世界森林经营思想的演变及其对我们的启示

本文回顾了世界森林经营思想和实践的演变过程,对“森林的永续经营”和“森林的可持续经营”概念进行了诠释,同时指出“森林的可持续经营”概念目前已为世界上众多政治家和林业工作者所接受,从而成为当今世界森林经营的主体思想。作者还根据近年来国际森林问题的发展动态,就我国的林业发展提出了几点思考。作者认为,保持森林的环境保护与生产作用的平衡是至关重要的,在重视生态保护的同时,切莫忽略了森林的传统功能——生产。     

Nature-based forest management—Where are we going?: Elaborating forest development types in and with practice

The decision to transform “classical” age-class forests (plantation forestry) into more nature-based forest stand structures implied a paradigmatic shift in the Danish state owned forests and their management. In order to facilitate this process of change, scientists were employed by the Danish Forest and Nature Agency which enabled interactions with the professionals in the forest over a nearly 2-year period. Very soon it became evident that the main questions were not so much related to the process of shifting from age-class forests to nature-based management, but more to the evident lack of settled long-term goals in terms of stand structure and dynamics of the “future” forests. Realizing this constraint, forest development types (FDT) and their illustration by means of profile diagrams were elaborated in an adaptive, participatory process involving people both inside and outside the organisation. FDT describes long-term goals for forest development on a given locality (climate and soil conditions) in order to accomplish specific long-term aims of functionality. It is based upon an analysis of the silvicultural possibilities in combination with the aspirations of future forest functions. It will serve as a guide for future silvicultural activities in order to “channel” the actual forest stand in the desired direction.Looking through the lens of “social learning” this paper reflects on and discusses the participatory, bottom-up process in which the knowledge of professionals and scientists was mixed in the development of long-term goals for stand structures and dynamics in nature-based forest management. Specifically, the use of FDT scenarios and their illustration by means of profile diagrams as tools to organise and ease communication in this learning process is addressed and presented as an integrative, flexible and easily comprehensible concept for communicating long-term goals for stand development in nature-based forest management.     

Forest resources and timber production of Ghana: Current instruments for sustainable development

The decline of the natural tropical high forest has reached a critical stage in Ghana’s forestry history. Timber resources are over-exploited, degraded and further production prospects are questionable and of concern to forest management. The objective of this paper is to discuss some of the institutional measures and development instruments being taken in Ghana towards the feasibility of achieving sustainable management of the high forest for timber and other commodity products, as well as conserving other forest resources. This paper, therefore, provides institutional measures and structures, regulatory and economic instruments, currently being taken to ensure effective forest management and increase the productivity of the land and logging. The role of collaborative management approach of both natural reserved and unreserved high forests and to promote integrated farm forestry is explained. Effective management of the high forest resource demands close harmonizing of instruments and mechanisms, both internal and external to forestry, and which encourage stakeholders to participate actively in decision making that affects the resource quality and its production status. Currently, different instruments including regulatory, property rights, motivational, hypothecation, information supply and economic are being applied in Ghana to achieve sustainable forest resource management and timber production. These instruments are not mutually exclusive in their current application, but rather complementary. Thus, an effective mix of instruments is necessary to promote and make feasible, sustainable forestry in Ghana’s socioeconomic development objectives.     

Regional impact assessment on forest structure and functions under climate change—the Brandenburg case study

A forest simulation model has been applied in a regional impact assessment to investigate impacts of climate change on forest structure and function in the Federal state of Brandenburg, Germany. The forest model FORSKA-M was linked to a GIS that included soil, groundwater table and land-use maps. Two climate scenarios (current climate and a climate change of 1.5 K temperature increase which is combined with a precipitation decrease of 10–20% on average) for 40 meteorological stations in and around Brandenburg were used to assess the sensitivity of species composition to climate change. Furthermore, the implications of vegetation changes for other forest functions were analysed by means of several indicators. To evaluate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity, measures of species diversity (Shannon’s and Simpson’s index) and habitat and structural diversity (Seibert’s index) were applied. The evaluation of impacts on groundwater recharge of natural and managed forests was carried out using the soil water balance model of FORSKA-M.At first, model simulations of the potential natural vegetation (PNV) on the whole area of Brandenburg with different climate scenarios were analysed. The results indicated that climatic warming would lead to a shift in the natural species composition in Brandenburg towards more drought tolerant species. The simulated diversity of the forests would be reduced, and groundwater recharge would be decreased.The majority of forests in the state of Brandenburg have been managed intensively in the past. At present, large areas of Brandenburg’s forests are dominated by pure stands of Scots pine, but current forest management practice aims at increasing the share of deciduous and mixed forests. In order to analyse the possible consequences of climate change on forest management, forest inventory data were used to initialise FORSKA-M with representative forest stands. Simulation experiments with three different management scenarios showed that the short to mid-term effects of climatic change in terms of species composition were not as severe as expected. However, the comparison of different diversity measures indicates a decrease in the species diversity in contrast to an increase in habitat diversity under climate warming. Furthermore, a decrease in productivity and groundwater recharge was simulated under the climate change scenario.The regional impact assessment corroborated the high sensitivity of natural forests in the region to the projected climatic change and it underlined the importance of adaptive management strategies to help forestry to cope with climatic change.     

How much management is enough? Stakeholder views on forest management in fire-prone areas in central Portugal

With the increasing pressure to improve the contribution of forests to help dealing with global changes, it is critical to understand the different perceptions of those involved in the forest. How do forest owners, managers and members of local communities who often depend on the forest, value it and what are the problems affecting the forests in terms of being able to meet these new challenges?In Portugal, this task has taken on an even greater priority as more than 90% of the forest is private and forest management relies on the individual decisions of thousands of forest owners. To understand stakeholder views on forest and forest management, a transversal social perception survey was implemented in the form of a case study of central Portugal which included decision-makers, local technicians, forest owners and the general public.The results show that there is a consensus on the main issues affecting forests and forest management. A shift from classic forest owners to the emergence of indifferent forest owners was observed, although this shift has not been recognized by the forest owners in the survey, who maintain the individual management of their properties.     

The impact of windthrow on carbon sequestration in Switzerland: a model-based assessment

Carbon sequestered in biomass is not necessarily stored infinitely, but is exposed to human or natural disturbances. Storm is the most important natural disturbance agent in Swiss forests. Therefore, if forests are taken into account in the national carbon budget, the impact of windthrow on carbon pools and fluxes should be included. In this article the forest scenario model MASSIMO and the soil carbon model YASSO were applied to assess the effect of forest management and an increased storm activity on the carbon sequestration in Swiss forests. First, the soil model was adapted to Swiss conditions and validated. Second, carbon fluxes were assessed applying the two models under various forest management scenarios and storm frequencies. In particular, the influence of clearing after a storm event on the carbon budget was analyzed. The evaluation of the model results showed that the soil model reliably reproduces the amount of soil carbon at the test sites. The simulation results indicated that, within the simulated time period of 40 years, forest management has a strong influence on the carbon budget. However, forest soils only react slightly to changes in the above-ground biomass. The results also showed that a storm frequency increase of 30% has a small impact on the national carbon budget of forests. To develop effective mitigation strategies for forest management, however, longer time periods must be regarded.