Disease properties, geography, and mitigation strategies in a simulation spread of rinderpest across the United States

ABSTRACT: For the past decade, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has been working toward eradicating rinderpest through vaccination and intense surveillance by 2012. Because of the potential severity of a rinderpest epidemic, it is prudent to prepare for an unexpected outbreak in animal populations. There is no immunity to the disease among the livestock or wildlife in the United States (US). If rinderpest were to emerge in the US, the loss in livestock could be devastating. We predict the potential spread of rinderpest using a two-stage model for the spread of a multi-host infectious disease among agricultural animals in the US. The model incorporates large-scale interactions among US counties and the small-scale dynamics of disease spread within a county. The model epidemic was seeded in 16 locations and there was a strong dependence of the overall epidemic size on the starting location. The epidemics were classified according to overall size into small epidemics of 100 to 300 animals (failed epidemics), epidemics infecting 3 000 to 30 000 animals (medium epidemics), and the large epidemics infecting around one million beef cattle. The size of the rinderpest epidemics were directly related to the origin of the disease and whether or not the disease moved into certain key counties in high-livestock-density areas of the US. The epidemic size also depended upon response time and effectiveness of movement controls.     

Continuing presence of rinderpest virus as a threat in East Africa, 1983-1985

The re-emergence of rinderpest virus in East Africa in 1979 caused widespread outbreaks of disease and subclinical infection throughout the region until mid-1983. Subsequent massive emergency vaccination campaigns have been successful in eliminating clinical rinderpest from Tanzania and preventing its spread southwards. Unfortunately the virus is still endemic in north-eastern Uganda and has recently caused epidemic outbreaks with high mortality in cattle in that country. In Kenya, buffaloes (Syncerus caffer) in and around the Masai Mara game reserve have developed antibodies to rinderpest virus as recently as late 1984. Although there have been no outbreaks of clinical disease in Tanzania or Kenya from April 1983 to the end of 1985 this serological evidence plus the increasing incidence of clinical outbreaks in Uganda indicate that rinderpest virus still threatens East Africa. The substantial aid which has been provided to the region for rinderpest control must be maintained.     

Present status of rinderpest diseases in pakistan

All animal diseases have the potential to affect human lives adversely by reducing the quantity and/or quality of food (meat, milk, etc.), secondary livestock products (hides, skins and fibres) and animal power (traction and transport). The importance of the livestock sector is growing more rapidly than any other agricultural sector in Pakistan. In the past, livestock production in Pakistan has been affected because of transboundary animal diseases like rinderpest, foot and mouth disease and peste des petits ruminants disease, posing a serious threat to the livestock industry in Pakistan. The continuing persistence of rinderpest has been of grave concern for the entire region including Pakistan. The export of livestock products managed to retain its growth with relaxation of restrictions imposed by the Gulf states in the year 2001 only. Pakistan has been provisionally declared a rinderpest free country in 2003, as a result of a vigorous eradication programme.     

Outbreaks of rinderpest in wild and domestic animals in Nigeria

Rinderpest, although eradicated from Nigeria in 1974 after the JP15 campaign, was reintroduced into Sokoto state in 1980 and again into Borno state in 1983. The latter outbreak spread rapidly throughout Nigeria and severely reduced the cattle population. An estimated one million cattle were lost. An outbreak occurred at the Maiduguri zoo, in Borno state, in January 1983 and killed 15 elands and six sitatungas. In March 1983, rinderpest appeared in Yankari game reserve in adjoining Bauchi state and caused mortality in several species of wildlife. A total of 207 buffalo, 20 warthog, eight waterbuck and two bushbuck carcases were recovered. Rinderpest did not occur in wildlife in Nigeria after it was eradicated from cattle. In the Nigerian situation, the rinderpest appears to have been transmitted from cattle to wildlife. Vaccination of zoo animals and valuable animals in game reserves, preferably with a killed vaccine, and ring vaccination of livestock around game reserves can help to protect wildlife from rinderpest.     

Re-infection of wildlife populations with rinderpest virus on the periphery of the Somali ecosystem in East Africa

We report surveillance for rinderpest virus in wildlife populations in three major ecosystems of East Africa: Great Rift Valley, Somali and Tsavo from 1994 to 2003. Three hundred and eighty wild animals were sampled for detection of rinderpest virus, antigen or genome and 1133 sampled for antibody in sera from Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia and Tanzania from 20 species. This was done modifying for wildlife the internationally recommended standards for rinderpest investigation and diagnosis in livestock. The animals were selected according to susceptibility and preference given to gregarious species, and populations were selected according to abundance, availability and association with livestock. Rinderpest virus, antigen and/or genome were detected in Kenya; within Tsavo, Nairobi and Meru National Parks. Serological results from 864 animals (of which 65% were buffalo) from the region were selected as unequivocal; showing the temporal and spatial aspects of past epidemics. Recent infection has been only in or peripheral to the Somali ecosystem (in Kenya). Our evidence supports the hypothesis that wildlife is not important in the long-term maintenance of rinderpest and that wildlife are infected sporadically most likely from a cattle source, although this needs to be proven in the Somali ecosystem. Wildlife will continue to be a key to monitoring the remaining virus circulation in Africa.     

A serological survey of ruminant livestock in Kazakhstan during post-Soviet transitions in farming and disease control

The results of a serological survey of livestock in Kazakhstan, carried out in 1997--1998, are reported. Serum samples from 958 animals (cattle, sheep and goats) were tested for antibodies to foot and mouth disease (FMD), bluetongue (BT), epizootic haemorrhagic disease (EHD), rinderpest (RP) and peste des petits ruminants (PPR) viruses, and to Brucella spp. We also investigated the vaccination status of livestock and related this to changes in veterinary provision since independence in 1991. For the 2 diseases under official surveillance (FMD and brucellosis) our results were similar to official data, although we found significantly higher brucellosis levels in 2 districts and widespread ignorance about FMD vaccination status. The seroprevalence for BT virus was 23%, and seropositive animals were widespread suggesting endemicity, despite the disease not having being previously reported. We found a few seropositives for EHDV and PPRV, which may suggest that these diseases are also present in Kazakhstan. An hierarchical model showed that seroprevalence to FMD and BT viruses were clustered at the farm/village level, rather than at a larger spatial scale. This was unexpected for FMD, which is subject to vaccination policies which vary at the raion (county) level.     

An agent-based model for control strategies of Echinococcus granulosus

Cystic echinococcosis is a widespread zoonosis, caused by Echinococcus granulosus. The definitive hosts are carnivores and the intermediate hosts are grazing animals. Because humans are often accidentally infected with the cystic stage of the parasite, a control program is being developed for Western China. Western Sichuan Province in China is a highly endemic area. In this study, we built an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate and assess possible control strategies. These included dog dosing, control of livestock slaughter, health education, vaccination of intermediate hosts, vaccination of definitive hosts, slow-released praziquantel injections for dogs, removing unproductive old livestock, dog population reduction. These strategies were examined singly and in various combinations. The results show that vaccination based control strategies and also combined control strategies (dog dosing, slaughter control, removing old livestock, dog population reduction) can achieve a higher efficiency and be more feasible. Although monthly dog dosing achieved the highest efficiency, it required a high frequency and reliability, which were not feasible or sustainable. The model also indicated that transmission would recover soon after the chosen control strategy was stopped, indicating the need to move from a successful attack phase to a sustainable consolidation phase.     

The Control of Rinderpest in Tanzania between 1997 and 1998

In January 1997, Tanzania requested international assistance against rinderpest on the grounds that the virus had probably entered the country from southern Kenya. Over the next few months, a variety of attempts were made to determine the extent of the incursion by searching for serological and clinical evidence of the whereabouts of the virus. At the clinical level, these attempts were hampered by the low virulence of the strain, and at the serological level by the lack of a baseline against which contemporary interpretations could be made. Once it became apparent that neither surveillance tool was likely to produce a rapid result, an infected area was declared on common-sense grounds and emergency vaccination was initiated. The vaccination programme had two objectives, firstly to prevent any further entry across the international border, and secondly to contain and if possible eliminate rinderpest from those districts into which it had already entered. On the few occasions that clinical rinderpest was subsequently found, it was always within this provisional infected area. Emergency vaccination campaigns within the infected area ran from January to the end of March 1997 but were halted by the onset of the long rains. At this time, seromonitoring in two districts showed that viral persistence was still theoretically possible and therefore a second round of emergency vaccination was immediately organized. Further seromonitoring then indicated a large number of villages with population antibody prevalences of over 85%. These populations were considered to have been `immunosterilized'. Although no clinical disease had been observed in them, it was decided to undertake additional vaccination in a group of districts to the south of the infected area. Serosurveillance indicated that rinderpest could have been present in a number of these districts prior to vaccination. Serosurveillance in 1998 suggested that numerous vaccinated animals had probably moved into districts outside the infected and additional vaccination areas, but did not rule out the continued presence of field infection.     

An epidemiological model of rinderpest. I. Description of the model

The development of an epidemiological model of rinderpest in cattle and wildlife populations is described. The model uses a state-transition structure, incorporating a stochastic element through the use of Monte-Carlo methods modified to allow large populations to be simulated. The potential applications include the estimation of "safe" host population immunity rates and the design of cost-effective rinderpest vaccination programmes.     

Vaccination: a management tool in veterinary medicine

Conventional vaccines have been used for some 200 years, primarily to control infectious diseases. It is envisaged that such vaccines will continue to be used and new ones developed using conventional technology. However, in addition to conventional vaccines, novel approaches using biotechnology are already in use and many more are in various stages of development. These novel vaccines are not only being used to control infectious diseases, but also to improve productivity of livestock by modulating hormones, for gender selection, as well as in controlling ectoparasites. The recent developments in vaccination technology in all of these areas are described.     

Immune response and protection of cattle and pigs generated by a vaccinia virus recombinant expressing the F protein of rinderpest virus

The immune response of cattle and pigs to a vaccinia recombinant virus containing the fusion (F) protein gene of rinderpest virus was examined. Half the cattle and all the pigs gave humoral response to primary vaccination and all the cattle gave an anamnestic response to a second vaccination 28 days after the primary vaccination. All the cattle after a single or secondary vaccination were completely protected clinically after exposure to a lethal dose of the Saudi 1/81 strain of virus. Prior vaccination with another TK- vaccinia recombinant (VVCAT) suppressed, but did not abrogate, the immune response to the rinderpest F recombinant. The pigs gave a humoral immune response in the absence of any local reaction at the site of vaccination.     

Quality control of the vaccines and cold chain during the national vaccination campaigns]

During the two vaccination campaigns against rinderpest and contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) in 1989 and 1990, 507 vaccine samples were collected for quality control at each step of the distribution chain from the Veterinary Pharmacy of Abidjan to the vaccinator on the field. Parallel to that, the quality of the cold chain was checked. A total of 463 titrations were performed. All the titration levels were above the OIE/FAO standards, i.e. 10(2.5) DICT50/ml for rinderpest Valence and 10(7) viable germs/ml for contagious bovine pleuropneumonia Valence.     

Rinderpest Vaccination and the Incidence and Development of Trypanosomosis in Cattle

An investigation was made into whether recent vaccination of cattle with tissue culture rinderpest virus would cause immunosuppression and lead to more frequent or more severe infection with trypanosomes in animals grazing in tsetse-infested areas. Herds of cattle on Galana Ranch in Kenya were divided, with approximately half of each herd being vaccinated with tissue culture rinderpest virus strain Kabete O, while the rest remained unvaccinated. The herds were then exposed to the risk of natural infection with trypanosomes on the ranch. Three experiments were performed during different seasons. Infections with Trypanosoma congolense and Trypanosoma vivax were frequently detected but there was no evidence that vaccinated animals were more likely to acquire trypanosome infections or to show a more severe disease than unvaccinated cattle. It is concluded that tissue culture rinderpest vaccine does not cause immunosuppression and can safely be used in cattle likely to be exposed to tsetse flies and trypanosomosis.     

A model of lineage-1 and lineage-2 rinderpest virus transmission in pastoral areas of East Africa

The development of a stochastic, state-transition model of rinderpest transmission dynamics is described using parameter estimates obtained from both laboratory and participatory research. Using serological data, the basic reproduction numbers for lineage-1 rinderpest virus in southern Sudan and for lineage-2 rinderpest virus in Somali livestock were estimated as 4.4 and between 1.2 and 1.9, respectively. The model predictions for the inter-epidemic period in Sudan and Somalia (1.2 and 4.2 years, respectively) were in agreement with analysis of livestock-owner reports (1–2 years and 5 years, respectively).     

A heterogeneous population model for contagious bovine pleuropneumonia transmission and control in pastoral communities of East Africa

Pastoral cattle live in highly structured communities characterized by complex contact patterns. The present paper describes a spatially heterogeneous model for the transmission of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) developed specifically for pastoral communities of East Africa. The model is validated against serological data on the prevalence of CBPP infection in several communities of southern Sudan and against livestock owner information on community structure, livestock contact and cattle exchange. The model is used to assess the impact of alternative control strategies including mass and elective vaccination programmes, potential treatment regimes and the combination of vaccination and treatment in a single unified strategy. The results indicate that the eradication of CBPP using mass vaccination with currently available vaccines is unlikely to succeed. On the other hand, elective control programmes based on herd level vaccination, treatment of clinical cases or a combination of both vaccination and treatment enabled individual livestock owners to capture a large benefit in terms of reduced animal-level prevalence and mortality experience. The most promising intervention scenario was a programme which combined the vaccination of healthy animals with treatment of clinical cases.     

The detection of antibody against peste des petits ruminants virus in Sheep,Goats, Cattle and Buffaloes

Monoclonal antibody-based competitive ELISA (C-ELISA) has been used for the specific measurement of antibodies to peste des petits ruminants (PPR) viruses in sheep, goats, cattle and Buffalo. Serum samples from sheep (n = 232), goats (n = 428), cattle (n = 43), buffalo (n = 89) were tested. The animals had not been vaccinated against rinderpest or PPR. Findings suggested that the sero-positive cases were significantly higher in sheep (51.29%) than in goats (39.02%) (P = 0.002). The overall sero-prevalence of PPRV in small ruminants was 43.33%. The PPR antibodies seroprevalence was 67.42% in buffalo and 41.86% in cattle which was significantly higher in buffalo (P = 0.005). The overall sero-prevalence of PPRV in large ruminants was 59.09%. Cattle and buffalo sera showed a high prevalence of antibody against PPR virus which may explain the difficulty experienced in achieving high post-vaccination immunity levels against rinderpest. Because antibodies against PPR virus are both cross-neutralizing and cross-protective against rinderpest virus, further vaccination in the presence of antibodies against PPR virus may be a waste of national resources. It was also suggested that antibodies to PPR virus could prevent an immune response to the rinderpest vaccine. This paper presents serological evidence for the transmission of PPR virus from sheep and goats to cattle and buffalo and highlights the need to include PPR serology in the sero-monitoring programme to give a better indication of national herd immunity of sheep and goats against PPR.     

Viral and bacterial diseases in livestock in Mongolia

This review focuses on the status of infectious diseases that are serious for animal health and have adverse economic effects in Mongolia. Data presented here are limited due to the lack of published or other easily available documents. Foot-and-mouth disease continues to cause substantial economic losses as exemplified by the outbreak of infection with serotype O PanAsia lineage virus. In the case of the 2001 outbreak, a 65% reduction in export revenues was recorded. In order to ascertain the free status of Mongolia from rinderpest, sero-epidemiological surveillance has been carried out since 2001. In 2004, Mongolia was certified free from rinderpest by Office International des Epizooties (OIE). A sharp rise in both animal and human brucellosis incidence has become a serious problem. Rabies and anthrax remain endemic with occasional human cases. Other prevailing infectious diseases are contagious pustular dermatitis, contagious agalactia, enterotoxemia and pasteurellosis. The current programs for the control of infectious diseases in livestock in Mongolia lack a definite policy that would enable rapid implementation. A large-scale surveillance of infectious diseases in animals and management of appropriate preventive measures are urgently required in Mongolia.     

Infection with parasitic nematodes confounds vaccination efficacy

T helper (Th) cells produce signature cytokine patterns, induced largely by intracellular versus extracellular pathogens that provide the cellular and molecular basis for counter regulatory expression of protective immunity during concurrent infections. The production of IL-12 and IFN-γ, for example, resulting from exposure to many bacterial, viral, and protozoan pathogens is responsible for Th1-derived protective responses that also can inhibit development of Th2-cells expressing IL-4-dependent immunity to extracellular helminth parasites and vice versa. In a similar manner, concurrent helminth infection alters optimal vaccine-induced responses in humans and livestock; however, the consequences of this condition have not been adequately studied especially in the context of a challenge infection following vaccination. Demands for new and effective vaccines to control chronic and emerging diseases, and the need for rapid deployment of vaccines for bio security concerns requires a systematic evaluation of confounding factors that limit vaccine efficacy. One common albeit overlooked confounder is the presence of gastrointestinal nematode parasites in populations of humans and livestock targeted for vaccination. This is particularly important in areas of the world were helminth infections are prevalent, but the interplay between parasites and emerging diseases that can be transmitted worldwide make this a global issue. In addition, it is not clear if the epidemic in allergic disease in industrialized countries substitutes for geohelminth infection to interfere with effective vaccination regimens. This presentation will focus on recent vaccination studies in mice experimentally infected with Heligmosomoides polygyrus to model the condition of gastrointestinal parasite infestation in mammalian populations targeted for vaccination. In addition, a large animal vaccination and challenge model against Mycoplasma hyopneumonia in swine exposed to Ascaris suum will provide a specific example of the need for further work in this area, and for controlled field studies to assess the impact of other similar scenarios.     

A recent outbreak of rinderpest in East Africa

Rinderpest was brought under control in Kenya in 1976 but in April 1986 an outbreak of the disease occurred in cattle in Western Kenya, five kilometres from the Kenya-Uganda border. This was the first confirmed field outbreak of the disease in Kenya after a lull of over 10 years. Clinical disease was confined to unvaccinated zebu calves aged six to eight months from which rinderpest virus was isolated. High titres of antibodies to rinderpest virus were demonstrated in sera collected from sheep and goats that were grazing together with the affected cattle herds; there was, however, no evidence of clinical disease in these small ruminants and wildlife species in the affected area. The disease outbreak was rapidly stamped out by quarantine and vaccination.     

Seroepidemiology of rinderpest in bovids in Sri Lanka using the enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) technique

Approximately 0.2% (n=4397) of the bovids (cattle and buffalo) in Sri Lanka were sampled, from June 1992 using a multi-stage sampling procedure. Serum antibodies for the rinderpest virus were detected using the competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The age, the agroclimatic zone, the management system practiced in the farms, and the vaccination history of the sampled bovids were studied as potential risk factors for being seropositive.

The prevalence of rinderpest antibodies in non-vaccinated bovids was 3.5% (n=4101). The prevalence was higher in the dry zone (9%; where the outbreak emerged in 1987), compared to bovids in the other zones (1%). Seropositive bovids over three years of age were approximately at fourfold higher chances of being seropositive compared to those that were ≤3 years old. The higher prevalence in older animals is probably due to exposure to the virus during the 1987 epidemic. Bovids from the dry zone (annual rainfall 20 to 35 inches) were at higher odds of being seropositive even after controlling for the possible effects of age, agroclimatic zone, management system and vaccination. The fact that 62% of bovids from the dry zone in this study were reared under extensive management system (free grazing) which allow unrestricted contact between animals, may be the reason for the above finding. A relatively poor response to vaccination observed in vaccinated bovids (seroprevalence=12%; n=296) could be attributed to difficulties in maintaining the vaccine at recommended temperatures in the field. This is the first island-wide study on seroprevalence of rinderpest in Sri Lanka.